Unemployment Trajectories Research Articles

Trajectories of work disability and unemployment before and after a common mental disorder diagnosis among young private sector employees in Sweden-a register-based longitudinal study.

To identify trajectory groups of work disability (WD), including sick leave and disability pension, and unemployment three years before and sixyears (from Y-3 to Y + 6) after a common mental disorder (CMD) diagnosis and to investigate associations of socio-demographic, work-related and clinical factors with trajectory membership. A longitudinal nationwide register-based study was conducted including individuals aged 22-29 years, gainfully employed in the private sector, with a CMD diagnosis in specialised healthcare or prescribed antidepressant (N = 12,121) in 2014 (Year 0/Y0), with follow-up from Y-3 to Y + 6. Group-based trajectory analyses identified groups of individuals who followed similar trajectories of months of WD and unemployment, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression determined associations between socio-demographic, work-related and clinical factors and trajectory membership. In the CMD group, we identified three trajectory groups, each for WD and unemployment. Only 7% individuals belonged to a 'Fluctuant high' trajectory group with four months of WD in Y0, which peaked at 7months in Y + 3 and reduced to 5months in Y + 6. For unemployment, 15% belonged to an 'Increasing medium' trajectory group that steadily increased from 1.3months in Y0 to 2.6months in Y + 6. Sex, educational level and musculoskeletal disorders for WD, and educational level, living area and occupational class for unemployment, influentially determined the variance across the CMD trajectory groups. Specific vulnerable groups regarding unfavourable WD (women, low education and musculoskeletal disorders) and unemployment (manual work, low education and rural residence) trajectories require special attention regarding their return-to-work process following a CMD diagnosis.

Unraveling the Relationship Between GDP and Unemployment in China with Okuns Law

As the worlds second-largest economic powerhouse, China stands at the nexus of global trade, investment, and economic policies. Yet, despite its meteoric rise and the subsequent spotlight on its financial milestones, the correlation between its GDP growth and the unemployment rate remains a fertile ground for exploration. Using time-series data as the backbone of this paper, the Granger Causality Test and Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodologies are employed during the research process. These sophisticated approaches are capable of ascertaining the linear interdependencies between these variables, providing a dynamic perspective that goes beyond traditional static analyses. This research aims to answer key questions: Can the historical fluctuations in GDP serve as a reliable predictor for future unemployment trajectories, and if so, to what extent does Okuns Law hold true? Conversely, does a shift in unemployment rates offer insights into potential GDP movements? The conclusions drawn from this comprehensive analysis aim to uncover the relationship between GDP and unemployment and provide possible explanations by integrating the notion of Okuns law.

Part-Time Workers’ Employment Trajectories by Length of Hours and Reason for Working Part-Time: An 8-Year Follow-Up Study

Using the Finnish Labour Force Surveys merged with register-based follow-up data, we analyzed how different characteristics of part-time work predict employees’ and entrepreneurs’ employment trajectories in an 8-year follow-up. We analyzed careers by the length of weekly working hours and the reason for part-time work, that is, childcare, studies, health, part-time pension, other voluntary choice, or if full-time work was not available (involuntary part-time). We applied sequence analysis to define work career clusters based on the continuum of spells spent in different labor market statuses, that is, in upper and lower white-collar, manual, or entrepreneurial employment, unemployment, studying, pensioned, or inactivity. According to the results, involuntary part-timers have a significantly higher probability of entering the unemployment trajectory than full-time workers. Those working part-time hours due to care responsibilities were also more likely to face frequent periods of unemployment, whereas part-time work combined with studies was associated with stable white-collar trajectories. Our results also show that weakened labor outcomes following marginal part-time jobs associate with disability retirement instead of unemployment later in time, most probably determined by ill health. Therefore, we suggest further studies to consider marginal part-time workers’ health as the determinant of weakening career outcomes. Overall, our results highlight the need to improve part-time working conditions, a concern that organizations like the OECD have also raised. This improvement could reduce the risk of unemployment, promote health, extend work careers, and consequently increase the employment rate.

Trajectories of sustainable working life in nine Swedish residential regions: A longitudinal twin cohort study.

To investigate trajectories of sustainable working life (SWL, ie, no interruptions or transitions in working life due to sickness absence (SA), disability pension (DP), or unemployment) in Swedish residential regions using a population-based twin cohort, while assessing sociodemographics and twin pair similarity. Sample of 60 998 twins born in 1925-1958. SWL was assessed through main labor market status in each year in 1998-2016 based on > 180 days with SA/DP, > 180 days with unemployment, or >half of yearly income from old-age pension for not in SWL, and employment (in paid work and did not fulfill the criteria SA/DP, unemployment, or old-age pension) for SWL. Residential regions were classified into nine groups based on Swedish municipalities. Group-based trajectory models and multinomial logistic regression were applied separately for all regions. In all regions, the largest trajectory group was sustainable working life. Three to four trajectory groups developed toward unsustainable working life with different exit points from sustainable working life. A small proportion were grouped with partial stable or increase in sustainable working life. Increased age, being a woman, <12 years of education, and history of unstable working life increased, and being married and twin pair similarity decreased the likelihood of belonging to trajectories toward unsustainable working life. In all regions, most of the individuals followed a sustainable working life trajectory. A reasonable proportion of individuals followed trajectories developing toward unsustainable working life. The influence of sociodemographic and familial factors on trajectory groups was similar in all regions.

Life events as predictors of unsustainable working life trajectories from a life course perspective

Abstract Background The association between family-related life events (e.g., getting married or having children) and unsustainable working life in terms of unemployment, sickness absence and disability pension (SA/DP) are rarely studied from a life-course perspective although having public health importance. We investigated trajectories of unsustainable working life, and the associations between change in family-related life events and unsustainable working life trajectories by controlling for familial factors. Methods This is a prospective cohort study of 37,867 Swedish twins aged between 20-40 years on 31st December 1994. Data on trajectories of annual unemployment, SA/DP, and a combined measure of unsustainable working life months was collected from the Swedish national registers. The trajectories over a 23-year period were analysed by group-based trajectory modelling. Associations of change in family-related life events with trajectory groups in the whole sample were estimated by multinomial logistic regression and in discordant twin pairs (n = 4,647 pairs) with conditional models. Results Most participants had no or low levels of unemployment, SA/DP or combined unsustainable working life during 1994-2016. Individuals who were stably married or changed from being single living without children to married living with children had a decreased risk of unsustainable working life compared to individuals with stable family-related life events. The risk of unsustainable working life months over time was higher among individuals who changed from married to single status regardless of having children (range of HRs:1.31-4.44). Conclusions Family-related life events such as maintaining the relationship or getting married and having children decreases the risk of unsustainable working life while divorce is a risk factor for unsustainable working life. From a public health perspective, actions to support family formation or life would consequently promote a sustainable working life. Key messages • Unsustainable working life was less likely among married and among those who changed from single living without children to married with children compared to those with stable family life events. • Individuals who changed from being married to divorced status had an increased risk of unsustainable working life over time and therefore being potentially an important group for public health.

The Life Course of Unemployment and Midlife Health.

Objectives: We estimate associations between unemployment trajectories from ages 27-49 and physical and mental health at age 50. Methods: Data are from the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 (N=6434). Group-based trajectory models are used to identify unemployment trajectories. Generalized linear models with a modified Bolck, Croon, and Hagenaars (BCH) correction are used to regress health on unemployment trajectory groups. Results: We identified "Consistently Low (70%)," "Decreasing Mid-Career (18%)," and "Persistently High (12%)" unemployment trajectories. Experiencing Decreasing Mid-Career or Persistently High trajectories was associated with worse physical and mental health at age 50 than Consistently Low trajectories. Experiencing a Persistently High trajectory was associated with worse physical and mental health than a Decreasing Mid-Career trajectory. Discussion: Timing and likelihood of unemployment are associated with midlife health. Mid-Career unemployment is associated with worse physical and mental health at age 50, but not to the same degree as Persistently High unemployment.

The association between unemployment trajectories and alcohol consumption patterns. Evidence from a large prospective cohort in The Netherlands.

Unemployment is expected to influence alcohol consumption, but studies show mixed results, partly because most studies concentrate on current employment status. However, unemployment could be particularly consequential if it is part of a trajectory of employment precariousness. Moreover, the association between unemployment and alcohol consumption may not be homogeneous across the population, but differ by subgroups (e.g. socioeconomic status). This study longitudinally analyses the association between different employment trajectories and alcohol consumption, and examines if the association is moderated by socioeconomic status (SES), partner status, age and gender. Four waves of data of the Lifelines Cohort study are used. Sample consists of individuals from 18-50 years old, active in the labor market (n = 104,766) from the northern provinces of the Netherlands. Employment trajectories are defined by employment status in each wave, duration of unemployment, and number of exposures to unemployment. Drinking patterns are divided into "abstainers", "moderate drinking" (<1.5 drinks/day), "heavy drinking" (≥1.5 drinks/day) and "binge drinking" (≥5 drinks/occasion; 4 for women). The associations are estimated with multinomial logistic regression models. Results show that recent, long-term unemployment (≥ 6 months) is associated with higher rates of heavy drinking (RRR = 1.26 [95 % CI 1.03-1.54]), whereas short-term unemployment does not show any association with the outcome. Being continuously unemployed throughout the observation period shows a strong association with binge drinking (RRR = 1.43 [95 % CI 1.06-1.93]), as well as reporting 2 or more long unemployment spells (RRR = 1.49 [95 % CI 1.21-1.83]). The group of abstainers (77.95 % women) have significantly lower SES, and poorer health than their peers. For some individuals, recent unemployment increases the likelihood for abstinence (RRR = 1.23 [95 % CI 1.00-1.51]). Evidence suggests that length of unemployment is key in order to grasp its effects in terms of changing drinking patterns.

Banking structure, economic resilience and unemployment trajectories in US counties during the great recession

Abstract How might the structure of banking affect economic resilience? We address this question by analyzing how the organizational structures of banks and banking markets were associated with unemployment trajectories in local economies during the Great Recession. Two county-level analyses yield convergent results. Increasing branch densities of giant derivative holding banks within local economies were associated with greater surges in unemployment, weaker employment recoveries and stronger recession effects on unemployment from 2007 through 2016. Increasing branch densities of community banks and credit unions and localism in banking were associated with lower unemployment spikes, stronger recoveries and dampened crisis effects. These findings advance sociological studies of finance by providing new quantitative evidence for links between the social structures of banking and economic performance. They also confound arguments that decentralized systems of small, locally based financial institutions are inherently fragile by design, suggesting instead that alternatives to ‘too-big-to-fail’ banking can enhance local economies’ capacities to adapt proactively, withstand crisis and sustain employment during recessions.

Waiting and temporal control: The temporal experience of long-term unemployment

This article analyses how long-term unemployed persons experience time during their unemployment trajectories. This article uses a combination of interviewing and participant drawings to study the experience of time passing during the unemployment trajectory. We focus on the experience of wait time and find that the wait experience varies with control: some clients experience temporal agency and others a loss of control over time. When the wait time is characterised by uncertainty and a loss of control over time, it reinforces an experience of stagnation in the unemployment trajectory and a feeling of being a temporal outsider, living a life on hold, in comparison to societal norms of a working life. For these clients, wait time adds to the burden of unemployment. For clients experiencing temporal agency, wait time is experienced as meaningful, even useful. These clients experience control over the wait time or that the wait time has a fortunate timing in relation to other things happening in the clients’ lives. Based on the analysis, temporal control is decisive for the long-term unemployed, and therefore, a focus on time is crucial both in research on social and employment services for vulnerable clients and in the practice field.

Economic and Social Influences on Later-Life Well-Being: New Evidence From the NLSY79

The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) provides unprecedented opportunities for understanding how work, family, and socioeconomic characteristics over a 40-year period shape the well-being of older adults. The large sample enables explorations of race, gender, and socioeconomic differences in these processes. The five papers in this symposium exploit the rich life course data of NLSY79 to understand two key outcomes: health, and work/economic arrangements as adults approach their retirement years. Harrati and Heburn document the impacts of unemployment trajectories on physical and mental health, highlighting gender differences in these processes. Wolfe investigates the long-term health consequences of significant economic setbacks over the life course (shocks), taking into account those risk factors (selection) that render one vulnerable to such shocks. Jang and Tang document the negative impacts of informal caregiving on later-life physical health, yet their subgroup analyses detect positive impacts for African-Americans. Aughinbaugh delineates women’s time spent in caregiving over the life course, and discusses the implications for later-life economic well-being of both early life childcare and later-life coresidential caregiving. Walsemann, Fisk and Ailshire examine the role that parents and grandparents play in paying for their offspring’s college education, with careful attention to gender and socioeconomic differences in these patterns. Taken together, these papers underscore the importance of adopting an intersectional approach to understanding later-life well-being, and reveal the complex ways that paid work, unpaid work (caregiving), and inter-transfers (via tuition payment) bear on the health and financial stability of adults transitioning into their retirement years.

Unemployment Trajectories and the Early Risk of Disability Pension among Young People with and without Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Nationwide Study in Sweden.

Depression and anxiety are associated with unemployment and disability pension, while autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is less studied. We aimed to first identify unemployment trajectories among young adults with and without ASD, and then to examine their social determinants. Finally, we used the trajectories as determinants for subsequent disability pension. We used a population-based cohort, including 814 people who were 19–35 years old, not on disability pension, and who had their ASD diagnosis between 2001 and 2009. A matched reference population included 22,013 people with no record of mental disorders. Unemployment follow-up was the inclusion year and four years after. Disability pension follow-up started after the unemployment follow-up and continued through 2013. We identified three distinctive trajectories of unemployment during the follow-up: (1) low, then sharply increasing (9%,) (2) low (reference, 67%), and (3) high then slowly decreasing (24%). People with ASD had higher odds of belonging belong to the trajectory groups 1 (OR 2.53, 95% CI 2.02–3.18) and 3 (OR 3.60, 95% CI 3.08–4.19). However, the mean number of unemployment days was relatively low in all groups. A disability pension was a rare event in the cohort, although memberships to groups 1 and 3 were associated with the risk of a future disability pension. More knowledge is needed about factors facilitating participation in paid employment among people with ASD.

Exploring long-term youth unemployment in Europe using sequence analysis: a reproducible notebook approach

Youth unemployment is a factor influencing European policy. The effects of financial crisis of 2008 in youth unemployment were prominent and varied across European countries and regions. This notebook aims to identify key representative trajectories of youth unemployment by NUTS 2 regions in Europe from 2008 to 2018. Moreover, this notebook provides a self-contained research workflow that is fully reproducible and transparent, using a wide range of functionalities offered by computational notebooks. The results show that there is a divide between northern and southern regions. Northern regions follow stable low youth unemployment levels, while southern regions follow stable high youth unemployment levels. Finally, the results show that there are patterns of regional inequalities between major metropolitan areas and their adjacent regions.

Trajectories of sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment in young immigrants with common mental disorders.

The aims were to elucidate if trajectories of labour market marginalization (LMM), measured as sickness absence (SA)/disability pension (DP) or unemployment, differed between young immigrants and natives before and after an incident diagnosis of a common mental disorder (CMD), and to investigate if educational level, psychiatric comorbidity and duration of residence in Sweden (in immigrants) had different associations with subsequent LMM in natives compared with immigrants. A total of 28 971 young adults (19-30 years), with an incident CMD (inpatient or specialized outpatient healthcare due to CMDs or dispensed prescribed antidepressants during 2007) were included. Group-based trajectory models were utilized to identify trajectories of annual months of LMM 3 years before and 6 years after the diagnosis. The associations of risk factors with different trajectories were investigated by multinomial logistic regression, χ2-test and Nagelkerke R2 to measure the associations' strength. Immigrants were categorized into Western and non-Western immigrants. Young natives and immigrants showed similar trajectories of SA/DP. A higher proportion of non-Western immigrants (20.5%) followed trajectories of high levels of unemployment (>2 annual months) compared with Western immigrants (15%) and natives (16.5%). Educational level and duration of residence in Sweden (in immigrants) discriminated trajectories of both SA/DP and unemployment, whereas psychiatric comorbidity only discriminated trajectories of SA/DP. Differences in trajectories of unemployment between young natives and immigrants with an incident CMD were found. Educational level and psychiatric comorbidity provided information on differences between natives and immigrants and duration of residence gave information for subgroups of immigrants.

Transition Dynamics in European Labour Markets During Crisis and Recovery

The crisis has resulted in a substantial rise in unemployment in Europe and a notable divergence in unemployment rates and labour market outcomes post-crisis. In this paper, we offer a detailed examination of the transitional dynamics underpinning changes in employment, unemployment and inactivity across the EU member states during the long period from before the crisis until the recent recovery (2004–2016). We document substantial differences in transitional dynamics across countries and disparate shifts in these over time. We also find systematic cross-country differences in the medium- and long-run trajectories of employment and unemployment generated by these dynamics, which can broadly be associated with differences in labour market institutions and models of labour market regulation and industrial relations (varieties of capitalism or production regimes). Applying a counterfactual analysis, we further document how altering the dynamics of labour market transitions may contribute to reducing significantly the levels of unemployment, and cross-country disparities in these, across the EU.

Health and socioeconomic circumstances over three generations as predictors of youth unemployment trajectories.

BackgroundYouth unemployment is a critical life event, which may trigger other labour market-related disadvantages and detrimental health implications. To better understand the processes causing unemployment, we study how socioeconomic circumstances of successive generations and familial and health factors in adolescence predict youth unemployment trajectories between ages 16 and 28 in Finland from 2000 to 2009.MethodsWe used survey data from 1979 to 1997 on 12- to 18-year-old Finns (n = 43 238) linked with 1970–2009 registry-based data of their grandparents, parents and themselves. Growth mixture modelling and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used.ResultsThree latent youth unemployment trajectories emerged; low (46%), decreasing (38%) and high (16%) risk groups. Of adolescent factors, low school achievement was the most important predictor of youth unemployment followed by smoking, stress symptoms and poor self-rated health. Grandparents’ education predicted their grandchildren’s unemployment but the effects of other grandparental socioeconomic circumstances mediated through parents’ socioeconomic status (SES). Parents’ low SES and education, and long-term unemployment increased the risk of the child’s unemployment. Youth unemployment was related to low education at the age of 29.ConclusionGrandparents’ education, family socioeconomic circumstances and adolescents’ health and school achievement predict the developmental trajectory of youth unemployment. Youth unemployment is also related to low education in early adulthood. Our findings suggest that the health selection of unemployment works already in adolescence.

Trajectories of work disability and unemployment among young adults with common mental disorders

BackgroundLabour-market marginalisation (LMM) and common mental disorders (CMDs) are serious societal problems. The aims were to describe trajectories of LMM (both work disability and unemployment) among young adults with and without CMDs, and to elucidate the characteristics associated with these trajectories.MethodsThe study was based on Swedish registers and consisted of all individuals 19–30 years with an incident diagnosis of a CMD in year 2007 (n = 7245), and a matched comparison group of individuals without mental disorders during the years 2004–07 (n = 7245). Group-based trajectory models were used to describe patterns of LMM both before, and after the incident diagnosis of a CMD. Multinomial logistic regressions investigated the associations between sociodemographic and medical covariates and the identified trajectories.ResultsTwenty-six percent (n = 1859) of young adults with CMDs followed trajectories of increasing or constant high levels of work disability, and 32 % (n = 2302) followed trajectories of increasing or constant high unemployment. In the comparison group, just 9 % (n = 665) followed increasing or constant high levels of work disability and 21 % (n = 1528) followed trajectories of increasing or constant high levels of unemployment. A lower share of young adults with CMDs followed trajectories of constant low levels of work disability (n = 4546, 63%) or unemployment (n = 2745, 38%), compared to the level of constant low work disability (n = 6158, 85%) and unemployment (n = 3385, 50%) in the comparison group. Remaining trajectories were fluctuating or decreasing. Around 50% of young adults with CMDs had persistent levels of LMM at the end of follow-up. The multinomial logistic regression revealed that educational level and comorbid mental disorders discriminated trajectories of work disability, while educational level, living area and age determined differences in trajectories of unemployment (R2difference = 0.02–0.05, p < 0.001).ConclusionsA large share, nearly 50%, of young adults with CMDs, substantially higher than in the comparison group of individuals without mental disorders, display increasing or high persistent levels of either work disability or unemployment throughout the follow-up period. Low educational level, comorbidity with other mental disorders and living in rural areas were factors that increased the probability for LMM.

The impact of parental employment trajectories on the children’s early adulthood education and employment trajectories in the Finnish birth cohort 1987

The Finnish Birth Cohort 1987 grew up during the recession that hit Finland in the early 1990s, which had an impact on their parents’ activity in the labour market. In this paper we use Finnish register data to build employment and education sequences for all young people born in Finland in 1987 for the period 2005–2012 and employment sequences for all their parents for the entire length of their children’s lives from 1987 until 2012. The sequences were analysed and clustered, and four multinomial logistic regression models were used to find how parents’ trajectories connect to their children’s early adulthood trajectories. Most parents had been on a stable employment trajectory, but we found mothers and fathers who were absent from the labour market during the recession of the 1990s and after it – and some parents never entirely returned to work during this 1987–2012 follow-up. Likewise, most children were either on an employment or education trajectory, but we found groups of children who were on very early child care trajectories, unemployment trajectories, or on a trajectory with no records in the Finnish registers, which in the Finnish context implies that those young people are not employed, not in education and not receiving any of the various benefits. Disadvantageous trajectories were mostly very lasting. We found strong connections between parents’ disadvantages in the labour market and children’s disadvantageous early adulthood trajectories, even when adjusting for strong background variables. The strongest connections arise from parents’ long absences from the labour market.

Fast lane or down the drain? Does the occupation held prior to unemployment shape the transition back to work?

In this article, we analyse transitions from unemployment into re-employment from 1993 to 2010 among German men and women, and ask whether gender differences in unemployment trajectories can be explained by the fact that men and women work in different occupations prior to unemployment. In particular, we focus on whether the sex composition of the pre-unemployment occupation plays a crucial role in structuring unemployment trajectories, or whether other occupational characteristics, such as occupational closure, are more important. We test this framework by means of retrospective life histories drawn from the German National Educational Panel Study. This individual level data is linked to aggregated occupational information, which is constructed from the German Microcensus and the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies. The results of the Cox proportional-hazard models indicate that occupational characteristics predict gender differences in unemployment trajectories. Working in a male-dominated occupation prior to unemployment influences the transition rate into employment positively. At the same time, our analyses reveal that the effects of occupational characteristics differ substantially between men and women.

Institutional and socio-economic drivers of work-to-retirement trajectories in the Netherlands

ABSTRACTInstitutional exit pathways shape individual trajectories from work to retirement. In the Netherlands, early retirement schemes as well as disability and unemployment benefits structure the timing and complexity of transitions within such trajectories. Simultaneously, access to these exit pathways depends on the individuals’ entitlements to various social security programmes as well as their freedom to decide on the timing and path of exit. In this study, sequence analysis was applied to register data of primary sources of income with the aim of identifying the main trajectories from work to retirement between the ages of 56 and 66 for a sample of Dutch men and women born between 1943 and 1945 (N = 2,277). Seven distinct trajectories were found: ‘early retirement’, ‘premature retirement’, ‘late retirement’, ‘disability’, ‘unemployment’, ‘inactivity’ and ‘drop-out’. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was applied to investigate the relations of these trajectories with a set of individual and socio-economic characteristics, as well as factors at a firm level. Especially women, non-natives, the lower educated and the self-employed were found to have a greater risk of ending up in the ‘involuntary’ trajectories of late retirement, disability, unemployment and inactivity. Public-sector employees, farmers and craftsmen, and skilled blue-collar workers were less likely to differentiate from the norm of entering into premature retirement between the ages of 60 and 64.

Ready to work (yet)? Unemployment trajectories among vulnerable welfare recipients

By analysing changes through time in vulnerable welfare recipients’ perception of their unemployment trajectories, the article revisits the assumption that unemployed clients’ trajectories are linear pathways following a clear and predictable line of causes and effects. The analysis is based on a qualitative longitudinal study in which 25 vulnerable welfare recipients were interviewed and observed repeatedly over the course of a two-year period. The article depicts four main stages – clients step into and out of through time, dependent on their perception of individual agency, institutional role and orientation towards the future. The results show that stages in vulnerable clients’ unemployment trajectories overlap in complicated ways, in which different explanations, effects, unintended consequences and interlocking problems are closely intertwined. By studying social policy reforms through the lenses of the clients, the study challenges current research attempts to find a quick fix or ‘one-size-fits-all’ intervention to improve the employability of vulnerable clients.