Rise In Unemployment Research Articles

Changing Nigerian Migration Trends and its Hungarian Context

In a country like Nigeria, there is a decades-long tradition of internal and international migration, which has begun to strengthen especially since the country gained its independence. While the postcolonial period - from the 1960s until the 2000s - was marked primarily by the internal migration of workers to administrative and economic centres, with the rise of unemployment in the 2000s, the international migration of the Nigerians also strengthened. As a result of the diverse opportunities offered by international migration, at the 2015 migration summit, Nigerians turned up in relatively large numbers among migrants arriving in Europe via illegal routes. Although Nigerians are essentially leaving their country on legal routes, Nigerian illegal immigrants arriving in 2015-16 have aggravated the situation of Nigerian diaspora and painted a fundamentally negative image of Nigerians. Although most of them returned home, this still did not mean the elimination or alleviation of the problems that still spur migration in Nigeria.

State Regulation of Employment in Kazakhstan: Labor Market and Ways of Development

State regulation of population employment (hereinafter – SREP) is critical in ensuring national stability and prosperity. The present study aims to explore avenues for enhancing SREP in Kazakhstan and formulate actionable implementation proposals. The methodology employed encompasses scientific abstraction, comparative analysis through induction and deduction, communication analysis, statistical data analysis, and an integrated approach to generate comprehensive insights. The study reveals a 1-3% increase in the workforce and self-employed individuals over the past three years, which signifies moderate but consistent growth in labor participation. However, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a temporary 2% rise in unemployment in 2022, a setback followed by a reduction to 1% by the end of 2023, indicating a gradual improvement in labor market conditions. The study proposes innovative measures aimed at fostering job creation, especially in emerging sectors such as information technology and the “green” economy, emphasizing the need for strategic investment in these areas. Furthermore, recommendations are provided to support entrepreneurship and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, which are pivotal for sustainable employment growth. The findings of this research indicate that the proposed measures have the potential to enhance employment levels and contribute to overall economic growth significantly. The contribution of this study lies in identifying effective strategies for further development and enhancement of SREP to increase employment opportunities and promote economic resilience in Kazakhstan. Future research will examine the impact of legislative changes on employment, the implications of automation and digitalization, and provide a comparative analysis of successful international employment regulation practices.

Evaluation of the Impact of Economic Empowerment Initiatives on Poverty Alleviation among Youth and Women's Groups: A Case Study of the Arusha Region, Tanzania

Globally, the Women and Youth Development Fund, channeled through women's groups, has played a crucial role in fostering economic empowerment for women and youth. In Tanzania, population growth has introduced both opportunities and challenges, with a significant issue being the rise in unemployment and poverty, particularly among women and youth. To address these challenges, the Women, Youth, and People with Disabilities Revolving Fund (WYDF) was established within Local Government Authorities (LGAs) to provide accessible loans to the poor, who are often excluded from conventional financial institutions. This study investigates the effectiveness of economic empowerment initiatives in alleviating poverty among youth and women's groups in the Arusha Region, Tanzania. Specifically, it examines the impact of start-up capital provision, financial literacy training, and business capacity-building on poverty reduction. The study employed a survey research design with a quantitative approach, collecting data from 95 respondents through questionnaires. Purposive sampling was used to select the sample. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and SPSS software, with regression analysis employed to explore the relationships between variables influencing poverty reduction among the targeted groups. The findings reveal that start-up capital provision, financial literacy training, and business capacity-building significantly contribute to poverty reduction among youth and women's groups. The study recommends enhanced financial literacy programs to enable entrepreneurs to save and accumulate sufficient capital for business investments. Additionally, the government, through youth and women empowerment programs, should continue providing training, particularly to those without technical skills, focusing on new production techniques, efficient fund allocation, and marketing strategies to ensure sustainable impacts.

Social and Finance Security on Gig Workers’ Well-being with Occupational Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable

The rise in unemployment, digitization, and the flexibility of gig workers have propelled the growth of Malaysia's gig economy. However, the well-being and occupational satisfaction of gig workers can be impacted by social and financial security concerns. This study looks at the well-being of Malaysian gig workers through the role of occupational satisfaction as a mediator, while social and financial security as independent variables. The results of a structured survey administered between November 2023 and February 2024 to 135 gig workers indicate that the well-being of Malaysian gig workers is rather low. This study found that occupational satisfaction acted as a mediator in the relationship between social and financial security and gig workers' well-being. These results highlight how important it is to have both social and financial stability to enhance employee occupational satisfaction and thus, improve gig workers’ well-being.

Does the environmental Phillips curve hypothesis hold within the Ghanaian context?

This study examines the relationship between environmental quality and unemployment in Ghana using annual data spanning the period from 1990 to 2019. It also assesses the impact of gender-segregated unemployment rate on environmental quality. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) error correction model to estimate the relationship among the variables. In addition, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimation procedures were employed to check for robustness of the ARDL results. Findings indicate a positive effect of total unemployment rate on environmental quality in Ghana in the long-run and also in the short-run. In the case of the gender-segregated unemployment, the findings reveal that in both short-run and long-run, a rise in female unemployment causes a deterioration in environmental quality in Ghana. The results also validated the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis in the case of male unemployment. Thus, given that there is no general pattern in the findings, the study concludes that the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis does not hold within the Ghanaian context.

(Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves

We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of labor market outcomes and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job loss. In order to link our approach with previous theoretical and empirical work, we extend the procedure for estimating a Bayesian sign-restricted VAR so that priors can be directly imposed on the VAR's impact matrix. We find that structural shocks that shift the Beveridge curve have different effects on inflation. Our model allows us to fully decompose movements of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of each shock and also allows us to estimate the Phillips correlation associated with each shock; our results imply that observed Beveridge and Phillips correlations can change over time depending on what types of structural shocks predominate in a given period. Applying our model to the pandemic-related recession and recovery, we find that reallocation shocks were a key source of labor market dynamics during this period and explain how a post-pandemic ``soft landing,’’ in which inflation declined without a significant rise in unemployment, was possible.

Changes in Health Care and Prescription Medication Affordability in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic

In the US, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant rise in unemployment and economic loss that disproportionately impacted low-income individuals. It is unknown how health care and prescription medication affordability changed among low-income adults during the COVID-19 pandemic overall and compared with their higher-income counterparts. To evaluate changes in health care affordability and prescription medication affordability during the COVID-19 pandemic (2021 and 2022) compared with pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels (2019) and whether income-based inequities changed. This retrospective cross-sectional study included adults 18 years and older participating in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2019, 2021, and 2022. Low-income adults were defined as having a household income of 200% or less of the federal poverty level (FPL); middle-income adults, 201% to 400% of the FPL; and high-income adults, more than 400% of the FPL. Data were analyzed from June to November 2023. Measures of health care affordability and prescription medication affordability. The study population included 89 130 US adults. Among the weighted population, 51.6% (95% CI, 51.2-52.0) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 48.0 (0.12) years. Compared with prepandemic levels, during the COVID-19 pandemic, low-income adults were less likely to delay medical care (2022: 11.2%; 95% CI, 10.3-12.1; 2019: 15.4%; 95% CI, 14.3-16.4; adjusted relative risk [aRR], 0.73; 95% CI, 0.66-0.81) or avoid care (2022: 10.7%; 95% CI, 9.7-11.6; 2019: 14.9%; 95% CI, 13.8-15.9; aRR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.64-0.80) due to cost, while high-income adults experienced no change, resulting in a significant improvement in income-based disparities. Low-income and high-income adults were less likely to experience problems paying medical bills but experienced no change in worrying about medical bills during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with prepandemic levels. Across measures of prescription medication affordability, low-income adults were less likely to delay medications (2022: 9.4%; 95% CI, 8.4-10.4; 2019: 12.7%; 95% CI, 11.6-13.9; aRR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.65-0.84), not fill medications (2022: 8.9%; 95% CI, 8.1-9.8; 2019: 12.0%; 95% CI, 11.1-12.9; aRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.66-0.83), skip medications (2022: 6.7%; 95% CI, 5.9-7.6; 2019: 10.1%; 95% CI, 9.1-11.1; aRR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.57-0.77), or take less medications (2022: 7.3%; 95% CI, 6.4-8.1; 2019: 11.2%; 95% CI, 10.%-12.2; aRR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.56-0.74) due to costs, and these patterns were largely similar among high-income adults. Improvements in measures of health care and prescription medication affordability persisted even after accounting for changes in health insurance coverage and health care use. These patterns were similar when comparing measures of affordability in 2021 with 2019. Health care affordability improved for low-income adults during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a narrowing of income-based disparities, while prescription medication affordability improved for all income groups. These findings suggest that the recent unwinding of COVID-19 pandemic-related safety-net policies may worsen health care affordability and widen existing income-based inequities.

Accelerating Graduate Employability through Work-Integrated Learning

Work integrated learning (WIL) encompasses educational experiences that merge academic knowledge and practical application in a professional setting, benefiting both students and the existing workforce. The objective of incorporating WIL into education is to foster the integration of theoretical understanding by engaging students in a combination of academic coursework and hands-on work-related activities. With the rise in unemployment, WIL appears to help organizations to get graduates that have all the attributes and skills relevant in the world or work, thereby expanding and growing their businesses ensuring greater prosperity for all concerned. The aim of this article was to assess the role Work Integrated Learning in accelerating Graduate Employability. Four WIL coordinators from different academic programmes that offer WIL as a module participated in this paper. Data was analysed using Thematic analysis, following Braun & Clark steps. The study revealed a direct correlation between academic performance and practical application in the professional setting. This paper therefore argues that WIL programmes can contribute immensely to the overall development of graduates and increase their chances of employment. The study revealed that WIL coordinators should review placement arrangements to improve WIL. This study found that Work Integrated Learning (WIL) has a positive effect on graduate employability and skills development, and that university WIL coordinators should review placement arrangements to ensure that students have enough training and development prior to placement.

Analysis of the Impact of Insecurity on Youth Unemployment (1990-2020)

Using the ordinary least square estimation technique (OLS), this research examines the impact of insecurity on youth unemployment in Nigeria between 1990 and 2020. The study focuses on the relationship between the dependent variable, unemployment (UNE), and two independent variables, the National Terrorism Index (NTI) and Crime Rate (CR). The results reveal that NTI has a positive and statistically significant effect on UNE. Specifically, a unit increase in NTI leads to a 0.000827 rise in unemployment. Additionally, Nigerian CR demonstrates a significant and positive influence on UNE, with an increase in CR resulting in a 0.005653 increase in unemployment. Given that heightened insecurity directly contributes to unemployment, the study proposes several policy recommendations. Firstly, the government should consider reducing interest rates in commercial banks to enhance the availability of loans for small business owners, enabling them to hire more employees. Furthermore, addressing corruption in both public and private sectors, combating kidnappings, and establishing additional skill acquisition centers are crucial measures to tackle the issue of insecurity and promote employment opportunities.

An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal

This paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders.

Trading Off Equality and Employment Gains in Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT This study examines the interaction of trade, inequality, and unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 1997 to 2021. Results from the mean group and pooled mean group estimation revealed that international trade explains a 6% rise in inequality and a 43% rise in unemployment. Our findings provide evidence that international trade, as currently structured, is not beneficial to SSA countries, despite the adoption of trade liberalization policies and regional trade agreements (RTAs). We argue that SSA countries could still derive gains from trade if they undertake massive structural reforms that address labor market frictions and skills gaps in the region.

Unemployment in Beijing During COVID-19 and Its Impact on Economic Development

This paper focuses on the unemployment rate and economic issues brought about by COVID-19 as the main topic of the study. An in-depth comparison of the difference in unemployment rates before and after the New Crown epidemic, post COVID-19 mainly and pre COVID-19, with the public's perspective, how COVID-19 brought about the crisis. There are three main research methods used in this paper, survey research case study and content analysis. The main one is the case study, which reflects some substantial impacts through examples of what happened in reality. Through the research, it is shown that the coming of major diseases has a great impact on people's productive life, and people's unemployment rate rises as a result. The rise in unemployment has been accompanied by a greater economic crisis. At the same time, the quality of life of the people has fallen dramatically. This vicious circle is detrimental to people's interests. The main purpose of this paper is to identify the problems and find ways to solve them in order to maintain the basic interests of people's lives.

The macroeconomy as a random forest

SummaryI develop the macroeconomic random forest (MRF), an algorithm adapting the canonical machine learning (ML) tool, to flexibly model evolving parameters in a linear macro equation. Its main output, generalized time‐varying parameters (GTVPs), is a versatile device nesting many popular nonlinearities (threshold/switching, smooth transition, and structural breaks/change) and allowing for sophisticated new ones. The approach delivers clear forecasting gains over numerous alternatives, predicts the 2008 drastic rise in unemployment, and performs well for inflation. Unlike most ML‐based methods, MRF is directly interpretable—via its GTVPs. For instance, the successful unemployment forecast is due to the influence of forward‐looking variables (e.g., term spreads and housing starts) nearly doubling before every recession. Interestingly, the Phillips curve has indeed flattened, and its might is highly cyclical.

DESTRUKTIVNI PROCESI PRIVATIZACIJE – EKONOMSKI I SOCIJALNI SUNOVRAT

In the world economy the historical conflict between labor and capital is intensifying in the process of the dominance of speculative financial capital. The rise of unemployment in the new global crisis leads to the spread of fear for the existence of the masses. There is a general decline in the share of employees' income in the national income, along with a real decline in salaries and wages. The functioning of globalized capitalism and the creation of the precariat are investigated. The aggravation of the conflict between labor and large speculative capital is the path to a permanent crisis. The relationship between private capital, profit and the welfare state are the basis of new crises in capitalism. A critical finding of the process of privatization and its destructive action in society is needed. A special part of the paper refers to the creation of a dependent and indebted economy, along with the discovery of the mechanism of creation of the debt burden. Finally, it investigates where modern economies and society have led to the devastating concept of neoliberalism, privatization and the separation of labor from capital and the results of development. Key words: economy, privatization, capital, debt economy.

The Influence of Gender Disparities on the Unemployment Rate in the United States amid the Covid-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which emerged in late 2019 and quickly spread globally in 2020, hit economic activity tough in most countries. In the United States, the socially enforced shutdown and economic stagnation caused by the pandemic led to a rapid rise in unemployment from the first quarter of 2020 onwards. Although the rise in unemployment rates in the US during the pandemic involves individuals of every gender, the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on the rise in unemployment rates were different for men and women, according to examination of statistics on unemployment for both genders from 2010 to 2023, with women experiencing a greater increase in their unemployment rate compared to men during the pandemic. Moreover, by constructing an ARIMA model based on the unemployment rates of different genders from 2010 to 2019, this paper predicts the unemployment rate of the United States from 2020 to 2023 under the assumption of no pandemic effects. It can be observed that the pace of decline in female unemployment rates during the pandemic was larger than that for male unemployment rates by comparing the gap between the prediction model and the actual data, and by January 2023, whether overall unemployment rates or unemployment rates across different genders were significantly higher than those predicted by the ARIMA model. The data compilation and analysis presented within this paper are useful in understanding the impact of public health events on employment status based on gender differences, and in providing a reference for post-COVID-19 mitigation policies.

Adapting to the gig economy: Determinants of financial resilience among “Giggers”

The growth of Malaysia's gig sector has been driven by the flexibility of gig work, digitalization, and the rise in unemployment. However, the lack of social protection and insurance has underscored the importance of understanding gig workers’ financial resilience. This study examined the current state of Malaysian gig workers’ financial resilience and identified its components. Analyzing responses from 452 gig workers to a structured survey conducted between June and November 2022 revealed that Malaysian gig workers exhibited low financial resilience when facing adverse shocks. This paper identified financial literacy, income level, and age as significant determinants of financial resilience. These findings underscored the necessity of financial literacy programs, income support initiatives, age-specific support programs, and regulatory framework enhancements to mitigate income volatility and assist gig workers in navigating financial and economic challenges.

Губернаторские выборы в США как зеркало социально-экономической ситуации (на примере старопромышленного Приозерья в период 1976–2000 гг.)

This article, based on statistical data and other sources, analyzes the results of gubernatorial elections held in the Great Lakes region of the US from 1976 to 2000. This territory is particularly interesting due to the old industrial nature of its economy and the social problems that arose from the partial destruction of traditional manufacturing in the 1960s and 1970s. An analysis of statistical data shows that the labor market situation had a significant influence on the results of gubernatorial elections, while the rise in unemployment noticeably weakened the position of the ruling party, regardless of whether the Democrats or Republicans were in power. A juxtaposition of two noticeably different periods (1976–1989 and 1990–2000) and a comparison between the Great Lakes region and the US as a whole indicates that the electorate in this old industrial region was highly responsive to changes in the economic situation. The database (with further expansions) may be useful for predicting some domestic political trends and the results of statewide elections in the US.

Public sector employment rigidity and macroeconomic fluctuation: A DSGE simulation for China.

Public sector employment in China has exhibited pronounced non-cyclical characteristics, with a recruiting scale and wage level showing limited responsiveness to economic fluctuations. The allure of civil service jobs in China has seen a significant resurgence post-COVID-19, with an observable increase in demand among educated job seekers for stable government positions amid growing economic uncertainties. This study investigates the implications of public sector employment rigidity on macroeconomic stability using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model integrated with search and matching (S&M) theory. Simulations incorporating alternative government job policies reveal that non-cyclical public employment exacerbates macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations. The low elasticity of public sector wages with respect to corporate wages fosters stable expectations among workers regarding the future value of government jobs, increasing the perceived value of the current state of unemployment. This leads job seekers to voluntarily remain unemployed, reducing labor supply to firms. Meantime, it preserves workers' bargaining power with firms, reinforcing wage stickiness and undermining the stabilizing role of price adjustments in employment. Hypothetical scenario analyses indicate that adopting a pro-cyclical wage policy for the public sector can mitigate the obstacles of wage cuts for firms, stimulate the creation of new jobs during economic downturns, and consequently reduce the magnitude and duration of rising unemployment rates. In contrast, maintaining a non-cyclical public sector wage may not prevent a continuous rise in unemployment or a worsening economic situation, even with expanded sector recruitment. This finding holds significant relevance in the context of the post-COVID era characterized by an economic slump and employment tension, providing theoretical support for establishing a transparent and flexible wage adjustment mechanism in the public sector that is linked to market conditions.

초등 교원양성기관 졸업자의 노동시장 성과 및 영향요인 변화 분석

Objectives This study aims to examine the background of the current social issue of elementary teacher supply and demand, and to analyze changes in the labor market outcomes of graduates from elementary teacher training institutions, and identify influencing factors.
 Methods Data from the Korean Employment Information Institute's 2009, 2019 Graduates' Occupational Mobility Survey (GOMS) of 315 elementary education graduates were used. Weighted variables were applied to the 2019 GOMS data for 170 graduates and the 2009 GOMS data for 145 graduates. Frequency analysis and descriptive statistics were used to analyze labor market outcomes among graduates. Cross-tabulation and logistic regression analysis were employed to identify factors influencing their employment using STATA 15.0.
 Results Compared to 2009 graduates, 2019 graduates experienced an 8% rise in unemployment, a 7% increase in irregular employment, and a 15% drop in regular employment. There was a 10% decrease in regular elementary teaching positions and an 11% increase in temporary teaching positions among 2019 graduates. Factors affecting employment differed: gender for 2009 graduates, while student loan status, participation in job psychology tests, and interview resume program participation were significant for 2019 graduates. Gender, school satisfaction, on-campus job experience, and participation in job psychology tests were influential for 2009 graduates, while graduation grade percentile and school location were significant for 2019 graduates.
 Conclusions Based on these findings, the study emphasizes the necessity of long-term perspectives in elementary teacher training and supply policy and the need for expanding career and employment support programs for current students in the short term.

Emergence of Entrepreneurs by Facing Financial Distress: The Mediating Mechanism of Entrepreneurial Motivation

The purpose of this research study is to examine the phenomena that led to rise in entrepreneurs post COVID-19 pandemic, Inflation and unemployment; how financial distress in Pakistan lead to entrepreneurial motivation, and to advance the study in domain of motivation that makes someone opt for entrepreneurship. The results of the study provide a means to understand how financial distress is linked with entrepreneurial behavior to startup ventures. The study also entails how entrepreneurial motivation turns into entrepreneurial behavior in presence of boundary condition of financial self-efficacy. The research study has different theoretical, practical and economic implications as well. The theory of entrepreneurship embeds the study model explaining the casual relations of the variables. Data sample has been collected from 200 entrepreneurs at three points of times. At T1 data was gathered for financial distress, at T2 data was gathered for entrepreneurial motivation and at T3 data was gathered for financial self-efficacy, entrepreneurial intentions and entrepreneurial behavior. Results of hypothesis test shows that financial distress has positive impact on Entrepreneurial intention and has not impacted Entrepreneurial behavior positively, Entrepreneurial motivation positively impacted Intention and behavior. Therefore, the study provides important insights into unexplored drivers of financial distress towards entrepreneurial motivation and intention and behavior contributing existing literature pertaining to entrepreneurial motivation. The study has uncovered fruitful aspects of entrepreneurship for future study.