Unemployment Rates In Canada Research Articles

Labour market mismatches in G7 countries: a fractional integration approach

ABSTRACT This paper examines the G7 labour market, analysing unemployment, job vacancies and the spread of both in terms of time series persistence from January 2002 to October 2023. Using fractional integration, we observe the series show long memory and persistence in all G7 countries. These findings differ slightly depending on the specification of the error term. If it is white noise, no evidence of mean reversion is found in any scenario except for US unemployment. With autocorrelated disturbances, mean reversion is found in unemployment rates in Canada, Germany, and the US. In France, this is the case for job vacancies, and in France and Italy, for spread. The UK is the only country that does not display any degree of reversion to the mean in the three series examined. Our results show evidence of a downward trend for unemployment and an upward trend for job vacancies in all G7 countries. Consequently, the reduction of the imbalance unemployment-vacancies seems permanent, which is a positive outcome for advanced economies.

Factors Affecting Unemployment Rate in Canada and Denmark

This study investigates the impact of labor force, government expenditure, gross capital formation, foreign direct investment, energy and domestic credit to private sector on unemployment in Canada and Denmark. Annual data is collected from 1980 to 2021 from world development indicator. Johansen Cointegration approach is used to identify the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The results show that labor force and government expenditure positively and significantly impact unemployment in long run in the case of Canada. While the gross capital formation, energy and domestic credit to private sector have negative but significant impact on unemployment. In short run labor force, GCF, energy and domestic credit to private sector has positive and significant impact on unemployment. On the other hand, in the case of Denmark, labor force and government expenditure have positive and significant impact on unemployment. Whereas gross capital formation, energy, FDI and domestic credit to private sector have significant and negative impact on unemployment while in short run FDI shows negative and significant impact on unemployment.

Unemployment and labor force participation in Canada

ABSTRACT We examine the long run relationship between labour force participation and unemployment rate in Canada using data from 1975M01 to 2019M12. A cointegration analysis is conducted at the aggregate, across gender, and by age. Support is found for an added worker affect for males and a discouraged worker effect for females. Findings by age reveal that the working age females exhibits the discouraged effect. However, we cannot confirm the added worker effect for any male age groups.

Do oil price shocks drive unemployment? Evidence from Russia and Canada

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships between the crude oil price (COP) and the unemployment rate (UR) in Russia and Canada with a bootstrap subsample rolling-window causality test. This approach relaxes linear assumptions, fully considers structural breaks, and captures time-varying causalities between variables; thus, it performs better than traditional long-run causality tests. The empirical results indicate that there are dynamic causal links between the COP and the UR in certain subsample intervals, which does not fully support Carruth's model. Furthermore, the causality between the COP and the UR in Russia can be described based on Western sanctions, China-Russia energy cooperation and the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, a decrease in major oil companies' production and the development of U.S. shale oil are employed to explain the fluctuating relationship between the COP and the UR in Canada. Our study identifies potential heterogeneous reasons for the dynamic causalities of major exporting countries, and it reveals novel influencing mechanisms between these two variables. Thus, some policies are suggested to alleviate shocks from oil prices, including oil risk management and oil cooperation for Russia and oil export structural adjustments and monitoring mechanism establishment for Canada.

The relationship between immigration and unemployment: Panel data evidence from Canada

Using provincial level panel data from the Statistics Canada, this paper examines the impact of permanent international immigration on the unemployment rate in Canada. In the empirical analyses, this study utilizes panel econometric techniques such as FMOLS, DOLS, and panel VECM. The results suggest that, in the short run, immigration has a significant positive impact on unemployment rate and that the unidirectional short-run causality runs from immigration to the unemployment rate. The results further suggest that, in the long run, immigration has a negative but insignificant impact on the unemployment rate. Though Canada attracts highly skilled immigrants, but generally Canadian employers do not recognize foreign education and foreign experience. Consequently, initially, immigrants face difficulties in the job market leading to an increase in the unemployment rate. Overtime, immigrants receive Canadian job experience and in many cases, Canadian education and training. All of these improve immigrants' employment prospect and consequently, in the long run, the adverse impact on unemployment rate is eliminated.

DEVELOPING MUNICIPAL POLICY AND PROGRAMS TO ACCELERATE MARKET TRANSFORMATION IN THE BUILDING SECTOR

INTRODUCTION Edmonton's cold climate and strong economic connections to the energy sector have made energy vital to the city's quality of life. The fossil fuel industry has helped the city's economy grow and Edmonton boasts one of the lowest unemployment rates in Canada at just over four percent. But Edmonton's economic prosperity does not shelter it from the realities of global environmental challenges. Just like other jurisdictions, climate change and the possibility of future energy constraints means that Edmonton must reevaluate its sources and use of energy across all sectors, including its buildings. To this end, on June 20, 2012, the Edmonton City Council approved the Green Building Plan and Policy, designed to help accelerate the greening of Edmonton's building stock. The policy outlines the strong role the city of Edmonton can play in supporting a green building sector to improve the environmental, health, and socioeconomic performance of all existing and new commercial, institutional, industrial...

The ins and outs of unemployment in Canada, 1976–2008

Abstract This paper studies the flows into and out of unemployment in Canada at an aggregate and a number of disaggregated levels. I find that inflows into unemployment are countercyclical and outflows are procyclical. At an aggregate level, changes in the rate at which individuals leave unemployment account for most of the changes in unemployment rates in Canada between 1976 and 2008. However, flows into unemployment matter more at some disaggregated levels. There are also some differences in the contributions of flows into and out of unemployment to changes in unemployment rates across the 1981–82 and 1990–92 recessions.

A Note on the Effects on Unemployment Insurance, Minimum Wage Legislation and Trade Union Growth on Reported Unemployment Rates in Canada, 1950-1975

The paper analyzes the effects of the factors noted in the title on reported unemployment rates, both theoretically and empirically. The implications of the results for the natural rate debate and macroeconomic stabilization policies are briefly discussed.

Recent Developments in the Canada-US Unemployment Rate Gap: Changing Patterns in Unemployment Incidence and Duration

1995, the unemployment rate in Canada averaged 9.6 percent, a full 4.2 percentage points above the US rate. Almost a decade later in 2004, the unemployment rate in Canada averaged 7.2 percent, compared to 5.5 percent in the United States, a gap of only 1.7 percentage points.' Other labour-market indicators also reflect this relative improvement. The employment-to-population ratio, for example, rose in Canada from 58.6 percent in 1995 to 62.7 percent in 2004, while in the United States this ratio fell marginally over the same period from 62.9 percent to 62.3.

Unit roots and structural breaks in North American unemployment rates

This paper examines the univariate time-series properties of the unemployment rate in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Tests are employed that allow for endogenously determined break dates and the results are compared to stationarity tests that assume no break in the data. The structural break unit-root tests contradict the findings of the standard tests. We conclude that North American unemployment rates are trend stationary around a breaking trend.

Inflation Uncertainty and Unemployment: Some International Evidence

This research examined whether the uncertainty associated with the volatility of inflation impacted unemployment in the G7 countries over the last two decades. The results indicate that inflation variability had a significant short-run effect upon the unemployment rate in Canada, France, Italy, and the US while no effect was found for Germany, Japan, or the UK. However, consistent with economic theory, we find no evidence of a long-run trade-off between inflation variability and unemployment.

It's Unemployment, Stupid! Why Perceptions about the Job Situation Hurt the Liberals in the 1997 Election

The Liberals almost lost their parliamentary majority in June 1997. This article argues that preceptions of the unemployment situation hurt the Liberals and cost them the support of almost three percentage points of votes. We examine the reasons why Canadians did not render a more positive judgement on the job situation despite a decrease of the official unemployment rate in Canada during the Liberal mandate. The results of this study raise a number of questions about voters' behaviour, about the diffusion and penetration of both general and economic information within the electorate, about the criteria with which voters use to judge governments, and on the incentives these governments might have to manufacture political business cycles.

HOW TO VALUE THE POORER PROSPECTS OF YOUTH IN THE EARLY 1990s?

Young workers in the 1990s can expect greater economic insecurity, as well as lower average earnings, compared to older workers, or compared to the youth of previous decades. The cost of greater insecurity depends upon an individual's probability of unemployment, marginal utility of income gains/losses and the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption over time by borrowing and drawing down assets. Since unemployment insurance cutbacks and higher unemployment have increased the risk exposure of youth, changes in the expected value of their income may understate utility losses as measured by the change in certainty equivalent income.This paper uses a behavioural microsimulation model to compare the impacts of 1971 and 1994 unemployment insurance legislation and unemployment rates in Canada. It calculates both the expected value of income changes and, using a Stone‐Geary utility function, the change in inequality of well‐being (as measured by certainty equivalent income) for youth and for prime age workers. Both calculations reveal that youth were disproportionately affected by Canada's changing labour market environment. Very few youth have enough assets to finance consumption during spells of unemployment.

The Labour Market Dynamics of Unemployment Rates in Canada and the United States

We develop a framework for the dynamic analysis of unemployment and use it to examine the difference in unemployment rates between Canada and the United States over the period 1980-1993. An examination of both the incidence and the duration of unemployment uncovers a series of stylized facts that explanations of persistently higher Canadian unemployment rates should recognize. Cyclical variations in the unemployment rate differential are due about equally to relative changes in spell duration and incidence. A decrease in the incidence of unemployment in the US relative to Canada is the major factor determining the trend in the unemployment rate gap. Finally, while the composition of unemployment is very different between the two countries - permanent job loss being more important in Canada and labour market entry and re-entry more important in the US - these differences are not the cause of longer spell lengths in Canada. Unemployment spells last longer in Canada for all groups of unemployed regardless of reason for unemployment.

The link between immigration and unemployment in Canada

In this paper we consider the joint relationship between immigration and unemployment rates in Canada, conditional on aggregate demand and supply factors, using quarterly data for the period 1962–1990. The novelty of the study, apart from adding to the few attempts at assessing the empirical link between immigration and unemployment for Canada, consists first in applying time series methods that permit current immigration to be jointly determined by past, as well as current and future unemployment rates. Second, we present evidence about transitory versus permanent effects of unemployment on immigration in addition to performing tests based on relationships estimated for every possible subsample as opposed to some ad hoc subsample selection. Among the salient results of this study is that current increases in the unemployment rate reduced future immigration rates before 1978. After 1978, however, there is a positive association between past immigration and current unemployment.

Structural Unemployment, Demographic Change or Industrial Structure?

Changes in demographic composition and industrial structure have been used to explain rising natural unemployment rates in Canada. We find the change in industry mix accommodated concurrent changes in labour force structure, but the substitution within industries, rather than changes in the mix, was the principal adjustment mechanism. Hence, we find it implausible that structural changes in labour supply should have been merely a response to industrial demand(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Why Have Unemployment Rates in Canada and the United States Diverged?

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