Unemployment Duration Research Articles

The impact of robots on unemployment duration: Evidence from the Chinese general social survey

The issue of the impact of robot applications on unemployment duration remains relatively unexplored. Using individual-level data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), we shed new light on the effects of robots on unemployment likelihood and duration. Major findings include that: (1) robots prolong the duration of unemployment, particularly for workers in routine occupations compared to those in non-routine occupations. This phenomenon can be understood as a form of structural unemployment; (2) workers with low skills, low economic and occupational status, and parenting responsibilities suffer more from the robot shock. In particular, robots adversely affect women's careers, and traditional perceptions amplify this effect to dampen their willingness and efforts to find job searching, resulting in longer periods of unemployment. These heterogeneous impacts of robots on unemployment duration highlight the need for greater support and policy interventions for vulnerable groups; (3) access to information from digital channels plays a pivotal role in alleviating the adverse impacts of robots on vulnerable groups. Reducing information asymmetry and nurturing job search capabilities help the vulnerable better adapt to evolving labor market conditions, thereby mitigating the negative consequences of robots.

Employer Credit Checks: Poverty Traps Versus Matching Efficiency

Abstract We develop a framework to understand pre-employment credit screening as a signal from credit markets that alleviates adverse selection in labour markets. In our theory, people differ in both their propensity to default on debt and the profits they create for firms that employ them; in our calibrated economy, highly productive workers have a low default probability. This leads firms to create more jobs for those with good credit, which creates a poverty trap: an unemployed worker with poor credit has a low job finding rate, but cannot improve her credit without a job. This manifests as an endogenous loss in present-discounted wages that is typically taken as exogenous in quantitative models of consumer default. Banning employer credit checks eliminates the poverty trap, but pools job seekers and reduces matching efficiency: average unemployment duration rises by 2 days for high productivity workers and falls by 13 days for low-productivity workers.

A Comparative Analysis of the Factors Influencing Job Expectations among Unemployed Men and Women in Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka, persistent gender differences in unemployment rates exist, with women enduring greater rates of unemployment de-spite having a higher average educational attainment than men. Gender differences in job search intensity vary with attitudes to-ward employment or unemployment as attitudes play a significant role in employment decision-making. These differences are intimately linked to people's expectations and mindsets regarding their work, which are strongly influenced by societal and cultural gender roles. This study looks at how job expectations differ between unemployed men and women in Sri Lanka. This study relies on data from the Department of Census and Statistics Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey (2021) and a multinomial logistic model to analyse the total unemployed, male unemployed, and female unemployed separately while taking two dependent variables; job sector expectations and occupational expectations. The study's findings emphasise the pivotal role of gender in sharpening job expectations among the unemployed. Regarding job sector expectations, unemployed women are more inclined towards jobs in the public sector than those in the private sector because of the government's reputation for offering standardized working hours and a work-life balance conducive environment. Furthermore, there are noteworthy differences in occupational expectations as unemployed women are more likely to expect professional and managerial level jobs with the increase in higher education enrolment. This study offers a groundbreaking contribution to the literature by unveiling unique, gender-specific determinants of job expectations among Sri Lanka's unemployed, highlighting the influence of unemployment duration, and employing distinct analytical models to bridge significant theoretical, empirical and methodological gaps. Finally, this study puts forth the broader discourse on gender, unemployment, and labour market dynamics in Sri Lanka, offering gender-specific policy recommendations aimed at bridging the expectation gap between unemployed men and women in Sri Lanka.

Idiosyncratic covariates of unemployment duration in Ghana: The joint effect of migration and education

Idiosyncratic covariates of unemployment duration in Ghana: The joint effect of migration and education

Unions: Wage floors, seniority rules, and unemployment duration

This paper examines the impact of unions on unemployment and wages in a dynamic equilibrium search model. We model a union as imposing a minimum wage and rationing jobs to ensure that the union's most senior members are employed. This generates rest unemployment, where following a downturn in their labor market, unionized workers are willing to wait for jobs to reappear rather than search for a new labor market. We characterize the hazard rate of exiting unemployment, and show that it is low at long durations whenever the union-imposed minimum wage is high; we establish that a high union-imposed minimum wage generates a compressed wage distribution and a high turnover rate of jobs — properties consistent with the data. Finally, we show that seniority rules lead to lower unemployment levels, relative to an alternative rule allocating jobs to workers randomly.

Migrants’ Role in Shaping Unemployment Duration and Labour Market Performance in a Sustainable Perspective: Empirical Evidence from Romania

Migrants’ Role in Shaping Unemployment Duration and Labour Market Performance in a Sustainable Perspective: Empirical Evidence from Romania

Revealing the New Nexus in Urban Unemployment Dynamics: The Relationship between Institutional Variables and Long-Term Unemployment in Colombia

Abstract The aim of this study is to assess the impact of various institutional variables on the long-term unemployment rate (LAPU) in the Colombian urban labor market. Vector autoregressive models are estimated using microdata from the Great Integrated Household Survey (GEIH), which has national coverage. Monthly data were analyzed for the 13 major capital cities and their metropolitan areas, as well as for the group of 11 intermediate capital cities, resulting in a total of 24 main urban labor markets in Colombia. The dataset includes unionized individuals, individuals with verbal and written contracts, non-labor income, unemployed individuals with subsidies, and individuals receiving severance payments. The results indicate that the growth in the number of unionized employees and non-labor income contributes to increasing the persistence in the duration of unemployment in Colombia. A key finding is that a positive growth in the ratio – gap between individuals with written contracts versus verbal contracts reduces LAPU. This provides evidence of how reducing information asymmetries in the Colombian labor market can improve labor market outcomes and contribute to medium- and long-term social welfare in Colombian urban centers.

Macroeconomic determinants of enterprise births in European countries: The moderating role of human capital in the unemployment structure

Research background: While micro-level studies evidence that unemployment increases the probability of being self-employed, the findings at the macro-scale are ambiguous. At the macroscale, the unemployment push mechanism is further conditioned by cyclical fluctuations and industry-specific characteristics. Most studies, however, have neglected the heterogeneity of the group of unemployed, which could also be behind the disparate results. Purpose of the article: In filling this gap, the study aims to examine the links between the unemployment rate and enterprise births, while considering the unemployment structure in terms of the human capital of the unemployed and the unemployment duration. Methods: The issue is examined using the example of 20 European countries in the period 2004–2020. The fixed- and random-effects panel models were applied. The sectoral diversity of entrepreneurial activity (manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing, professional and scientific activities, ICT), and the size class of the newly established enterprises (with/without employees) are also considered. Findings & value added: The study reveals that the share of long-term unemployment and the skill structure of the unemployed have an impact on new firm formation, which varies with the knowledge intensity of the start-ups and their size. A higher share of highly qualified unemployed increases the start-up rates, particularly in knowledge-intensive services and manufacturing. A higher share of long-term unemployed has a negative impact on enterprise births, specifically in new businesses with employees. The findings are important for designing effective instruments to address unemployment by entrepreneurship within active labour market policy.

Transitioning from the University to the Workplace: A Duration Model with Grouped Data

Labor market surveys usually measure unemployment duration in time intervals. In these cases, traditional duration models such as Cox regression and parametric survival models are not suitable for studying the duration of unemployment spells. In order to deal with this above issue, we use Han and Hausman’s ordered logit model for grouped durations, which has more flexibility than standard specifications. In particular, its flexibility arises from the fact that we do not need to specify any functional form for the baseline hazard function—it also circumvents problems associated with heterogeneity. The focus of interest is on the first unemployment duration of higher education graduates. The analysis is accomplished by using a large dataset from a graduate survey of Spanish university graduates. The results show that the university-to-work transition of higher education graduates is significantly associated with the graduate’s age, participation in internship programs, field of study, type of university, and gender. Specifically, graduates who participated in internship programs, engineering graduates, and graduates from private universities experience a smooth transition.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF DETERMINATIONS OF RESERVATION WAGE EXPECTATIONS AMONG UNEMPLOYED MEN AND WOMEN IN SRI LANKA

The "reservation wage" concept indicates the minimum compensation a person is willing to accept when seeking employment. This study aims to determine how reservation wage expectations differ between unemployed men and women in Sri Lanka. This analysis used secondary data extracted from the Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey (2021), which was conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics, and encompasses a sample size of 1,567 total unemployed, comprising 739 unemployed males and 828 unemployed females. A semi-log model was applied separately to the unemployed men, the unemployed women and the total unemployed to achieve the study's objective. The results indicated that gender significantly influences reservation wage expectations among unemployed men and women. Compared with women, unemployed men have a higher reservation wage expectation. Noteworthy variables, including household size, age, and unemployment duration, exhibit varying degrees of insignificance in shaping reservation wage expectations for both genders. Finally, this study concluded that the reservation wage expectations among unemployed men and women in Sri Lanka are significantly affected by various demographic, household socio-economic and regional geographical factors. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers to foster gender equality and labour market inclusivity to reduce the gender gap in Sri Lanka.

Analyzing The Length of Unemployment Among First-Time Job Seekers in Emerging Countries: Case of Turkey

The aim of this study is to analyze the factors that influence the unemployment duration of individuals entering labor market for the first time and those who have experienced working life before by using the 2020 Household Labor Force Surveys (HLFS) prepared by Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). Further, the effects of individual unique factors such as gender, age, marital status, family size and education level on unemployment duration are examined. Empirical results using the Cox Proportional Hazard Model, which is a semi-parametric version of survival analysis, show that the first time job seekers are at risk regardless of genders. Also, family size has no statistically significant impact on unemployment duration, while being married, divorced or widowed has decreasing effect. It takes longer time for women to find a job than men. Another important finding is that as the education level of individuals increases, the duration of their job search increases.

Job-field underemployment: its effect on career obstacles in the Israeli labor market

PurposeThe purpose of the current article is to examine the effect of the inefficient allocation of academic individuals in the Israeli labor market in terms of mismatch between their fields of education and occupation – a phenomenon referred in the literature as “horizontal mismatch” and “job-field underemployment” – on their duration of unemployment, in the local labor market.Design/methodology/approachA sample size of 8,554 participants have taken part in the survey by the Central Bureau of Statistics: Undergraduate students at academic institutions in Israel in the academic year of 2010–2011, who were sampled again in the academic year of 2017–2018, to determine the nature of their integration into the labor market, and the quality of their career progress. The study’s methodology is statistical-correlational, and its data mainly based on the answers of the participants in the research tool (questionnaire). A T-test for independent samples (via SPSS) has proven the key results.FindingsThe average cumulative annual duration of unemployment, as of graduation with a bachelor’s degree, among the mismatched graduates, was found to be higher than the average cumulative annual duration of unemployment among the matched graduates.Originality/valueThe current study’s originality lays both in its large sample size (8,554), and in the repeatability element of its sampling (test-retest reliability). Also, its findings regarding the consequences of the nature of the match between the educational field and occupational field – on the quality of integration of academics in the Israeli labor market, are pioneers in this field.

Survival analysis of unemployment duration: a case study of Vietnam

ABSTRACT How to make own advantages when submitting applications and increase the probability of getting a job early? The target of this study is to analyse the determinants of unemployment duration and the probability of seeking a job after graduation. It is carried out by using survival analysis along with the Cox model and Kaplan–Meier estimator and based on the dataset integrated from survey data and academic data. The empirical results show that taking part-time jobs related to training majors and setting goals as well as planning to go internship early have a positive influence on the ability of students to get a job early. The results also reveal that the mother’s occupation, the type of internment enterprise, the type of work contract, and the refusal of job opportunities offered previously have a negative impact on students’ chances of escaping unemployment. The findings are the basis for students to properly assess their advantages and disadvantages. Thereby, they can determine the goal of a job that suits their capacity and have a reasonable plan combined with their efforts to achieve it. They also support companies to identify groups of potential students and build their suitable evaluation criteria in recruitment.

Understanding Unemployment Dynamics and Labor Market Behavior in South Korea: Employing Mccall Dynamic Programming Approach

This paper investigates labor market dynamics from 1990 to 2023 using the McCall dynamic programming search model, offering insights into individual decision-making, economic conditions, and policy implications. Convergence trends in wage predictions underscore the model's reliability, highlighting its utility for predicting wage outcomes over time. The policy implications emphasize the importance of balancing the duration of unemployment and the considerations of the wage level in policy design. In light of the analysis, policymakers and employers should consider the trade-offs between unemployment duration and wage level when designing policies and compensation practices. The insights provide guidance for policymakers, employers, and job seekers in navigating the complexities of the job market.

Temporary wage subsidies and post-COVID re-employment in Morocco: a regression discontinuity approach

ABSTRACT This paper aims to evaluate the causal effect of a temporary wage subsidy scheme implemented in Morocco during the COVID-19 crisis. It exploits a discontinuity in the eligibility condition of this subsidy, which is the number of days reported before job loss, to identify its causal effect on beneficiaries’ unemployment duration and re-employment probability by using the regression discontinuity method based on administrative data from the National Social Security Fund (CNSS). Our findings indicate that this subsidy has reduced the duration of unemployment and improved the probability of re-employment of beneficiary employees. However, they also show that these positive effects seem to have been less pronounced among those most excluded from the labour market, namely women and young people.

Urban Unemployment Duration Analysis in Post-Reform China

We link China’s accession to the WTO with the unemployment duration of urban jobseekers. Using data from the Rural Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) of a survey conducted in early 2008, we construct an inflow sample of those who started a period of joblessness between January 2002 and December 2007 to estimate the unemployment duration for local urban jobseekers. Deploying the Cox Proportional Hazards and Accelerated Failure Time models, we find reduced trade policy uncertainty significantly shortens unemployment duration, with hazard-rate varying across internal in-migrants and urban natives, due to variations in job accessibility and reservation wages.

Intergenerational transmission of unemployment after apprenticeship graduation: does parental socioeconomic background still matter?

A smooth transition from apprenticeship to standard employment is a key step in the professional biographies of apprenticeship graduates. In this study, the transition of apprenticeship graduates from households that receive unemployment benefits are considered. These graduates are thought to be disadvantaged because their parents’ socioeconomic background is assumed to influence their employment outcomes through processes of intergenerational transmission and cumulative disadvantage. Based on administrative data from the Sample of Integrated Welfare Benefit Biographies (SIG) provided by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), this analysis offers deeper insights into parental socioeconomic background and the individual factors that affect the risk of unemployment following the completion of an apprenticeship. In the case of an unsuccessful direct transition to standard employment, the factors influencing the duration of the first unemployment are also assessed. The results show that, as with individual characteristics, parents’ education level has a significant effect on the graduates’ risk of unemployment. The duration of the household’s benefit receipt, on the other hand, significantly influences the duration of the first unemployment in the case of an unsuccessful transition following an apprenticeship.

THE EFFECT OF UNEMPLOYMENT ON MENTAL HEALTH: A STUDY ON THE UNIVERSITY GRADUATES OF BANGLADESH

Though unemployment is directly associated with individuals' health and lifestyle, the nature of the relationship and intensity for specific groups in different socioeconomic conditions is not universal. The study addresses the unemployed university graduates of Bangladesh to understand the relationship of unemployment and mental health. The study aims to assess the effect of unemployment on mental health of unemployed university graduates of Bangladesh. The effect is examined on 385 unemployed graduates. Data were collected through online survey using a semi-structured questionnaire that included the 12-item General Healthcare Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Data were collected using a four-point un-weighted Likert scale. Later on, the data were coded using adjusted Caseness scale to avoid the constraints of marginal values, and to address chronic distress of the respondents. The study observes the presence of a moderate to high degree of mental illness due to unemployment. The respondents were primarily unemployed due to failure of getting a destined job despite their attempt. The independents variables—age, unemployed time, and time between employment and graduation— have significant impacts on mental illness of the respondents. However, sex and mental health remain inconclusive in this study. Mental distress is observed in three latent factors—psychological disorder, social and emotional dysfunction and cognitive disorder—among the respondents. Age, duration of unemployment, and time elapsed after graduation have positive effects on mental illness.

STATISTICAL DISCRIMINATION AND DURATION DEPENDENCE IN A SEMISTRUCTURAL MODEL

AbstractThis article develops a job‐search model with unobserved worker heterogeneity and learning about worker types from unemployment duration. The model features negative duration dependence that stems from unobserved heterogeneity, skill depreciation, and statistical discrimination. We estimate job‐finding rates implied by our model using microlevel data from the Current Population Survey. We find that removing interview costs counterfactually, thereby eliminating statistical discrimination, substantially increases the job‐finding rates of the long‐term unemployed. The performance of low‐skill workers at the interview stage with discriminating firms plays a key role in explaining our counterfactual result.

Non-Working Workers. The Spanish Labour Market under Covid-19

We propose in this paper a way of analyzing the evolution of unemployment that considers, besides conventional unemployment rates, unemployment duration, discouraged workers and workers with suspended jobs. Those variables are combined into a synthetic index of non-employment that can be expressed as the product of two components, incidence and severity. We apply this methodology to analyse the evolution of the Spanish labour market during one year with Covid-19. The data show that the behaviour of the job market has been very asymmetric by regions and types of workers. We find that not only incidence and severity are quite heterogeneous across regions and worker types, but also that the evolution between 2019 and 2020 has been different from that corresponding to the financial crisis, with high unemployment regions and older workers suffering less, in terms of incidence and severity.