Uncertainty Visualization Techniques Research Articles

Exploring visual quality of multidimensional time series projections

Dimensionality reduction is often used to project time series data from multidimensional to two-dimensional space to generate visual representations of the temporal evolution. In this context, we address the problem of multidimensional time series visualization by presenting a new method to show and handle projection errors introduced by dimensionality reduction techniques on multidimensional temporal data. For visualization, subsequent time instances are rendered as dots that are connected by lines or curves to indicate the temporal dependencies. However, inevitable projection artifacts may lead to poor visualization quality and misinterpretation of the temporal information. Wrongly projected data points, inaccurate variations in the distances between projected time instances, and intersections of connecting lines could lead to wrong assumptions about the original data. We adapt local and global quality metrics to measure the visual quality along the projected time series, and we introduce a model to assess the projection error at intersecting lines. These serve as a basis for our new uncertainty visualization techniques that use different visual encodings and interactions to indicate, communicate, and work with the visualization uncertainty from projection errors and artifacts along the timeline of data points, their connections, and intersections. Our approach is agnostic to the projection method and works for linear and non-linear dimensionality reduction methods alike.

The influence of uncertainty visualization on cognitive load in a safety- and time-critical decision-making task

Decisions with spatial visualizations are often made under uncertainty and high time pressure. However, missing or improper representation of uncertainty can hamper the decision-making process. This paper investigates the impact of uncertainty visualization on cognitive load in the context of a safety-critical, time-sensitive decision-making task with a transportation system map. In a controlled experiment (n = 40) with a dual-task paradigm, we compared three different uncertainty visualization techniques and a baseline for different levels of time pressure. Cognitive load was measured using psycho-physiological metrics based on eye tracking and galvanic skin response, as well as self-reported. The results reveal significant differences in cognitive load among different visualization types, with line uncertainty representation techniques leading to lower cognitive load under both low and high-time pressure scenarios ( α < 0.05 ).

Evaluating the Impact of Uncertainty Visualization on Model Reliance.

Machine learning models have gained traction as decision support tools for tasks that require processing copious amounts of data. However, to achieve the primary benefits of automating this part of decision-making, people must be able to trust the machine learning model's outputs. In order to enhance people's trust and promote appropriate reliance on the model, visualization techniques such as interactive model steering, performance analysis, model comparison, and uncertainty visualization have been proposed. In this study, we tested the effects of two uncertainty visualization techniques in a college admissions forecasting task, under two task difficulty levels, using Amazon's Mechanical Turk platform. Results show that (1) people's reliance on the model depends on the task difficulty and level of machine uncertainty and (2) ordinal forms of expressing model uncertainty are more likely to calibrate model usage behavior. These outcomes emphasize that reliance on decision support tools can depend on the cognitive accessibility of the visualization technique and perceptions of model performance and task difficulty.

Examining Effort in 1D Uncertainty Communication Using Individual Differences in Working Memory and NASA-TLX

As uncertainty visualizations for general audiences become increasingly common, designers must understand the full impact of uncertainty communication techniques on viewers' decision processes. Prior work demonstrates mixed performance outcomes with respect to how individuals make decisions using various visual and textual depictions of uncertainty. Part of the inconsistency across findings may be due to an over-reliance on task accuracy, which cannot, on its own, provide a comprehensive understanding of how uncertainty visualization techniques support reasoning processes. In this work, we advance the debate surrounding the efficacy of modern 1D uncertainty visualizations by conducting converging quantitative and qualitative analyses of both the effort and strategies used by individuals when provided with quantile dotplots, density plots, interval plots, mean plots, and textual descriptions of uncertainty. We utilize two approaches for examining effort across uncertainty communication techniques: a measure of individual differences in working-memory capacity known as an operation span (OSPAN) task and self-reports of perceived workload via the NASA-TLX. The results reveal that both visualization methods and working-memory capacity impact participants' decisions. Specifically, quantile dotplots and density plots (i.e., distributional annotations) result in more accurate judgments than interval plots, textual descriptions of uncertainty, and mean plots (i.e., summary annotations). Additionally, participants' open-ended responses suggest that individuals viewing distributional annotations are more likely to employ a strategy that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into their judgments than those viewing summary annotations. When comparing quantile dotplots to density plots, this work finds that both methods are equally effective for low-working-memory individuals. However, for individuals with high-working-memory capacity, quantile dotplots evoke more accurate responses with less perceived effort. Given these results, we advocate for the inclusion of converging behavioral and subjective workload metrics in addition to accuracy performance to further disambiguate meaningful differences among visualization techniques.

Dynamic Visualization of Uncertainties in Medical Feature of Interest

In a medical context, uncertainty visualization of a Feature of Interest (FOI) is important, which could provide medical experts with informative feedback to make better decisions for diagnosis or preoperative planning. Traditional uncertainty visualization techniques allow the exploration of the uncertainty visualization of the FOI. However, when the intensity of the FOI and other materials is similar or overlapping, and/or the FOI is occluded by other materials, it would be difficult or impossible for them to reveal the FOI and its uncertainties. To address this problem, we propose an uncertainty visualization technique that includes two main components: the Multiattribute-rule-based FOI Segmentation (M-rule Seg. for short) and the FOI Dynamic Uncertainty Visualization. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we performed an experiment comparing it with two traditional uncertainty visualization techniques. The experimental results show that our proposed uncertainty visualization technique allows to better reveal the FOI and all its uncertainties that are difficult or impossible to be visualized by traditional uncertainty visualization techniques. In addition, we performed another experiment to compare our proposed M-rule Seg. technique with three traditional segmentation techniques. The experimental results show that our M-rule Seg. technique can generate more accurate segmentation results at the cost of a longer computing time.

Bayesian Methods for Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty and Error in Forest Models

Forest models are tools for analysis and prediction of productivity and other services. Model outputs can only be useful if possible errors in inputs and model structure are recognized. However, errors cannot be quantified directly, making uncertainty inevitable. In this paper, we aim to clarify terminological confusion around the concepts of error and uncertainty and review current methods for addressing uncertainty in forest modelling. Modellers increasingly recognize that all uncertainties—in data, model inputs and model structure—can be represented using probability distributions. This has stimulated the use of Bayesian methods for quantifying and reducing uncertainty and error in models of forests and other vegetation. The Achilles’ heel of Bayesian methods has always been their computational demand, but solutions are being found. We conclude that future work will likely include (1) more use of Bayesian methods, (2) more use of hierarchical modelling, (3) replacement of model spin-up by Bayesian calibration, (4) more use of ensemble modelling and Bayesian model averaging, (5) new ways to account for model structural error in calibration, (6) better software for Bayesian calibration of complex models, (7) faster Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, (8) more use of model emulators, (9) novel uncertainty visualization techniques, (10) more use of graphical modelling and (11) more use of risk analysis.

Color map design for visualization in flood risk assessment

ABSTRACTVisualizations of flood maps from simulation models are widely used for assessing the likelihood of flood hazards in spatial planning. The choice of a suitable type of visualization as well as efficient color maps is critical to avoid errors or bias when interpreting the data. Based on a review of previous flood uncertainty visualization techniques, this paper identifies areas of improvements and suggests criteria for the design of a task-specific color scale in flood map visualization. We contribute a novel color map design for visualizing probabilities and uncertainties from flood simulation ensembles. A user study encompassing 83 participants was carried out to evaluate the effects of this new color map on user’s decisions in a spatial planning task. We found that the type of visualization makes a difference when it comes to identification of non-hazardous sites in the flood risk map and when accepting risks in more uncertain areas. In comparison with two other existing visualization techniques, we observed that the new design was superior both in terms of task compliance and efficiency. In regions with uncertain flood statuses, users were biased toward accepting less risky locations with our new color map design.

The Evaluation of Direct Volume Rendering-Based Uncertainty Visualization Techniques for 3D Scalar Data

Many techniques have been proposed to represent uncertainty in data visualization. However, little research has been reported on the evaluation of their effectiveness. Moreover, no studies have been conducted to evaluate direct volume rendering (DVR)-based uncertainty visualization techniques. In this paper, we present a novel method that evaluates the perceptual effectiveness of four existing and one proposed DVR-based uncertainty visualization techniques. Four types of searching tasks that include identifying the maximum uncertainty data, identifying the minimum uncertainty data, identifying the maximum scalar data and identifying the minimum scalar data have been involved in this study, and a total of twenty-eight participants have contributed to the final main user study. Our analysis suggested that the proposed linked views and interactive specification (LVIS) technique appears to be the most accurate among all techniques, although it takes the longest task completion time. For the four existing techniques, the overlays technique appears to be the most advantageous, and it takes similar task completion time as the others. We believe that these findings can provide useful guidance for future uncertainty visualization design.

A User Study to Compare Four Uncertainty Visualization Methods for 1D and 2D Datasets

Many techniques have been proposed to show uncertainty in data visualizations. However, very little is known about their effectiveness in conveying meaningful information. In this paper, we present a user study that evaluates the perception of uncertainty amongst four of the most commonly used techniques for visualizing uncertainty in one-dimensional and two-dimensional data. The techniques evaluated are traditional errorbars, scaled size of glyphs, color-mapping on glyphs, and color-mapping of uncertainty on the data surface. The study uses generated data that was designed to represent the systematic and random uncertainty components. Twenty-seven users performed two types of search tasks and two types of counting tasks on 1D and 2D datasets. The search tasks involved finding data points that were least or most uncertain. The counting tasks involved counting data features or uncertainty features. A 4x4 full-factorial ANOVA indicated a significant interaction between the techniques used and the type of tasks assigned for both datasets indicating that differences in performance between the four techniques depended on the type of task performed. Several one-way ANOVAs were computed to explore the simple main effects. Bonferronni's correction was used to control for the family-wise error rate for alpha-inflation. Although we did not find a consistent order among the four techniques for all the tasks, there are several findings from the study that we think are useful for uncertainty visualization design. We found a significant difference in user performance between searching for locations of high and searching for locations of low uncertainty. Errorbars consistently underperformed throughout the experiment. Scaling the size of glyphs and color-mapping of the surface performed reasonably well. The efficiency of most of these techniques were highly dependent on the tasks performed. We believe that these findings can be used in future uncertainty visualization design. In addition, the framework developed in this user study presents a structured approach to evaluate uncertainty visualization techniques, as well as provides a basis for future research in uncertainty visualization.

Approaches to uncertainty visualization

Visualized data often have dubious origins and quality. Different forms of uncertainty and errors are also introduced as the data are derived, transformed, interpolated, and finally rendered. In the absence of integrated presentation of data and uncertainty, the analysis of the visualization is incomplete at best and often leads to inaccurate or incorrect conclusions. This paper surveys techniques for presenting data together with uncertainty. These uncertainty visualization techniques present data in such a manner that users are made aware of the locations and degree of uncertainties in their data so as to make more informed analyses and decisions. The techniques include adding glyphs, adding geometry, modifying geometry, modifying attributes, animation, sonification, and psycho-visual approaches. We present our results in uncertainty visualization for environmental visualization, surface interpolation, global illumination with radiosity, flow visualization, and figure animation. We also present a classification of the possibilities in uncertainty visualization, and locate our contributions within this classification.