Uncertainty In Water Management Research Articles

MORPHOFUNCTIONAL FEATURES OF PLACENTA AT WOMEN WITH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY INFERTILITY.

Water scarcity is a significant global challenge. Water resources planning and management are vital to all sectors, primarily for the agricultural sector identified as a significant consumer. Conjunctive water use management is ideal for decreasing water scarcity, especially in arid and semiarid regions. More importantly, considering uncertainties in water management is critical to planning and management issues. This study develops a fuzzy optimization model aiming at a qualitative-quantitative conjunctive reallocation of reclaimed wastewater and groundwater resources. Three objectives, including maximizing economic benefit, minimizing fertilizer consumption, and groundwater withdrawal, were assessed in Iran's Varamin Irrigation Network. This research uses fuzzy and non-fuzzy optimization models for a quantitative-qualitative conjunctive use of reclaimed wastewater and groundwater to meet multi-objective functions. These single and multi-objective fuzzy and non-fuzzy optimization models are compared. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) and multi-objective PSO (MOPSO) algorithms optimized single and multi-objective problems. A fuzzy optimization model is superior to the non-fuzzy optimization model regarding optimizing multi-objective functions. The results indicated that the net benefit increased up to 16% without increasing the cultivated area in the fuzzy MOPSO model. Moreover, groundwater withdrawal was reduced by using a larger share of reclaimed wastewater in total water consumption. This increased the use of potential nitrate in reclaimed wastewater and reduced fertilizer consumption. This study highlights achieving socio-economic and environmental goals under uncertain circumstances using agricultural water strategies through reclaimed wastewater. Also, a general improvement in water consumption efficiency was achieved through the optimal cropping pattern.

Fuzzy particle swarm optimization for conjunctive use of groundwater and reclaimed wastewater under uncertainty

Water scarcity is a significant global challenge. Water resources planning and management are vital to all sectors, primarily for the agricultural sector identified as a significant consumer. Conjunctive water use management is ideal for decreasing water scarcity, especially in arid and semiarid regions. More importantly, considering uncertainties in water management is critical to planning and management issues. This study develops a fuzzy optimization model aiming at a qualitative-quantitative conjunctive reallocation of reclaimed wastewater and groundwater resources. Three objectives, including maximizing economic benefit, minimizing fertilizer consumption, and groundwater withdrawal, were assessed in Iran's Varamin Irrigation Network. This research uses fuzzy and non-fuzzy optimization models for a quantitative-qualitative conjunctive use of reclaimed wastewater and groundwater to meet multi-objective functions. These single and multi-objective fuzzy and non-fuzzy optimization models are compared. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) and multi-objective PSO (MOPSO) algorithms optimized single and multi-objective problems. A fuzzy optimization model is superior to the non-fuzzy optimization model regarding optimizing multi-objective functions. The results indicated that the net benefit increased up to 16% without increasing the cultivated area in the fuzzy MOPSO model. Moreover, groundwater withdrawal was reduced by using a larger share of reclaimed wastewater in total water consumption. This increased the use of potential nitrate in reclaimed wastewater and reduced fertilizer consumption. This study highlights achieving socio-economic and environmental goals under uncertain circumstances using agricultural water strategies through reclaimed wastewater. Also, a general improvement in water consumption efficiency was achieved through the optimal cropping pattern.

SIE‐Climate: A methodological and technological tool for predicting local climate variability in managing socio‐ecological systems

AbstractClimate variability, as an element of uncertainty in water management, affects community, sectoral, and individual decision‐making. Long‐range prediction models are tools that offer the potential for integration and joint analysis with the hydrological, hydrodynamic, and management response of the socio‐ecological systems to which they are linked. The main objective of this article is to present a seasonal climate prediction model, the open‐source algorithm SIE‐Climate, whose application consists of three phases (exploration, development, and evaluation), and to describe its application to the Lake Sochagota socio‐ecological system (Paipa, Boyacá, Colombia). The K‐nearest neighbours method is used when defining a target matrix that represents and integrates macro‐ and micro‐climatic phenomena (Oceanic Niño Index, local temperature, and local rainfall) to identify periods of similar climatic behaviour. Considering a 1‐year horizon and management purposes the tool is calibrated and validated in periods with and without climatic anomalies (2000–2018), giving reliable adjustment results (RSME:4.86; R2: 0.95; PBIAS: −8.89%; EFF: 0.85). SIE‐Climate can be adapted to various contexts, variables of interest, and temporal and spatial scales, with an appropriate technological and computational cost for regional water management.

Coping with uncertainty in water management: Qualitative system analysis as a vehicle to visualize the plurality of practitioners' uncertainty handling routines

Accelerated environmental and societal change and its dynamic present a challenge for water management, making it increasingly relevant to integrate uncertainties into the decision-making process. The challenge to science informing practice is how to provide scientific uncertainty information in a way that this information becomes usable for practitioners. We know that practitioners have developed routines in order to cope with uncertainties, but in order to facilitate the transfer of uncertainty information, this study analyses by whom, when and where in the decision-making process uncertainty routines are used. This research contributes to the plurality of practitioners' perspectives on decision-making under uncertainty in water management. Based on expert elicitation we show that, depending on the business unit and on the time horizon of the management object, practitioners are using different uncertainty routines and hence are in need of more tailor-made uncertainty information to inform their decision-making. Our qualitative systems modeling approach highlighting a reservoir management example serves as a boundary object visualizing the intersection of uncertainty routines and fostering cross-communication and acknowledgement of different perspectives among practitioners. It thus provides a platform for learning. Moreover, it provides a clear understanding of the uncertainty information needs which scientists may cover and increases the usability of their research findings, closing the science-practice gap in adaptive management and transformation processes.

Dealing with uncertainty in collaborative planning: developing adaptive strategies for the IJsselmeer

Adaptive strategies to deal with uncertainty in water management are often collaboratively developed. So far, however, little attention has been paid to the influence of collaboration on handling uncertainty through adaptive planning. In this paper, we study how collaboration has influenced the handling of uncertainty through adaptive planning for water management strategies for the IJsselmeer area in the Netherlands. We show how a fixation on certainty, different perspectives among actors and unclear responsibilities between arenas affect the handling of uncertainty, and found that it is adversely affected by collaboration. The use of adaptive planning challenged current water uses and system functions, creating resistance from actors. We conclude that developing a shared problem perception, creating a common understanding of uncertainties and ensuring a clear demarcation between the water system, its societal functions and water usage, are necessary to make adaptive planning successful in handling uncertainty.

Human Health Risk Assessment of Contaminants in Drinking Water Based on Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Approach in Yinchuan City, Northwest China

Access to safe drinking water is one of the fundamental human rights and an important component of healthy life. In this paper, the triangular fuzzy numbers approach has been used for recognizing uncertainties in the estimation of health risks proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency in Yinchuan city, northwest China. The levels of As, Cd, Cr, Mn, Cu, Zn, Hg, Pb, F, NO3-N, and NH4-N in drinking water were within the permissible limits except for Fe. The results showed that the health risks were primarily attributed by Cr, As, and F in drinking water. When the confidence level was 0.8, the total carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks values were less than the acceptable risk levels (10−4 and 1.0) set by the USEPA, respectively. The health risk of drinking water in Yinchuan city is as follows: Nanjiao water source > Beijiao water source > Dongjiao water source. Furthermore, the total noncarcinogenic risks were more sensitive with respect to different confidence levels. The spatial distribution of As and F levels in drinking water sources is urgently needed to be ascertained in drinking water, especially for Nanjiao water source. The health risk assessment model based on the triangular fuzzy numbers approach is effective to quantify uncertainty in risks with less complexity. The findings in this paper will help managers minimize the potential health risks and provide a new insight for solving uncertainties in water management.

Perception and handling of uncertainties in water management—A study of practitioners’ and scientists’ perspectives on uncertainty in their daily decision-making

Uncertainties are central in any decision-making in water resource management. However, science and practice approach uncertainty handling and management in different ways. Science, for example, focuses on reducing uncertainties and/or places a good deal of emphasis on uncertainty quantification, while policy and practice apply risk-based decision approaches in order to cope with uncertainties throughout the entire management process. This study analyses how practitioners perceive and handle uncertainties in their daily decision-making routines at the knowledge/decision interface and how they evaluate and integrate uncertainty information into their decision-making. Expert interviews and questionnaires were used to examine and compare the practitioners’ and scientists’ perspectives on uncertainty management. Our results show that uncertainties matter for practitioners and that uncertainty information is regarded as highly relevant. However, scientists place more emphasis on uncertainties than practitioners. We further assert that there is a science-practice gap, where e.g. practitioners apply a bottom-up approach, thinking from potential measures upwards instead of impacts downwards. Scientists focus strongly on environmental uncertainties, while practitioners acknowledge and are guided by process uncertainties. Furthermore, rigid regulations in a predict-and-control manner hinder the implementation of flexible and adaptive management which acknowledge uncertainties. We also found that practitioners’ belonging to type of employer and business unit influences their level of uncertainty recognition and, hence, both affects the size of the science-practice gap and causes tension among practitioners from different business units and employers. Beside this gap, we show that the level of work experience is a cross-cutting property of scientist and practitioners, where uncertainty awareness and handling increases with work experience. This insight provides a basis on which to build routines for uncertainty integration into planning and decision-making and to bridge the science-practice gap.

EU Water Governance: Striking the Right Balance between Regulatory Flexibility and Enforcement?

Considering the challenges and threats currently facing water management and the exacerbation of uncertainty by climate change, the need for flexible yet robust and legitimate environmental regulation is evident. The European Union took a novel approach toward sustainable water resource management with the passage of the EU Water Framework Directive in 2000. The Directive promotes sustainable water use through long-term protection of available water resources, progressively reduces discharges of hazardous substances in ground and surface waters, and mitigates the effects of floods and droughts. The lofty goal of achieving good status of all waters requires strong adaptive capacity, given the large amounts of uncertainty in water management. Striking the right balance between flexibility in local implementation and robust and enforceable standards is essential to promoting adaptive capacity in water governance, yet achieving these goals simultaneously poses unique difficulty. Applied resilience science reveals a conceptual framework for analyzing the adaptive capacity of governance structures that includes multiple overlapping levels of control or coordination, information flow horizontally and vertically, meaningful public participation, local capacity building, authority to respond to changed circumstances, and robust monitoring, system feedback, and enforcement. Analyzing the Directive through the lens of resilience science, we highlight key elements of modern European water management and their contribution to the resilience of the system and conclude that the potential lack of enforcement and adequate feedback of monitoring results does not promote managing for resilience. However, the scale-appropriate governance aspects of the EU approach promotes adaptive capacity by enabling vertical and horizontal information flow, building local capacity, and delegating control at multiple relevant scales.

Using framing parameters to improve handling of uncertainties in water management practice

AbstractManagement of water resources is afflicted with uncertainties. Nowadays it is facing more and new uncertainties since the pace and dimension of changes (e.g. climatic, demographic) are accelerating and are likely to increase even more in the future. Hence it is crucial to find pragmatic ways to deal with these uncertainties in water management. We argue for an analytical yet pragmatic approach to enable decision‐makers to deal with uncertainties in a more explicit and systematic way and allow for better informed decisions. Our approach is based on the concept of framing, referring to the different ways in which people make sense of the world and of the uncertainties. We apply recently developed parameters of the framing of uncertainty in two sub‐basins of the Rhine, the Dutch Kromme Rijn and the German Wupper. We present and discuss the results of a series of stakeholder interactions in the two basins aimed at developing strategies for improving dealing with uncertainties. The strategies are amended and synthesized in a check‐list based on the uncertainty framing parameters as a hands‐on tool for systematically identifying improvement options when dealing with uncertainty in water management practice. We conclude with suggestions for testing the developed check‐list as a tool for decision aid in water management practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Assessing Framing of Uncertainties in Water Management Practice

Dealing with uncertainties in water management is an important issue and is one which will only increase in light of global changes, particularly climate change. So far, uncertainties in water management have mostly been assessed from a scientific point of view, and in quantitative terms. In this paper, we focus on the perspectives from water management practice, adopting a qualitative approach. We consider it important to know how uncertainties are framed in water management practice in order to develop practice relevant strategies for dealing with uncertainties. Framing refers to how people make sense of the world. With the aim of identifying what are important parameters for the framing of uncertainties in water management practice, in this paper we analyze uncertainty situations described by decision-makers in water management. The analysis builds on a series of “Uncertainty Dialogues” carried out within the NeWater project with water managers in the Rhine, Elbe and Guadiana basins in 2006. During these dialogues, representatives of these river basins were asked what uncertainties they encountered in their professional work life and how they confronted them. Analysing these dialogues we identified several important parameters of how uncertainties get framed. Our assumption is that making framing of uncertainty explicit for water managers will allow for better dealing with the respective uncertainty situations.

Alternative risk measure for decision-making under uncertainty in water management

Taking into account uncertainties in water management remains a challenge due to social, economic and environmental changes. Often, uncertainty creates difficulty in ranking or comparing multiple water management options, possibly leading to a wrong decision. In this paper, an alternative risk measure is proposed to facilitate the ranking or comparison of water management options under uncertainty by using the concepts of conditional expected loss and partial mean. This measure has the advantages of being more intuitive, general and could relate to many other measures of risk in the literature. The application of the risk measure is demonstrated through a case study for the evaluation of flood mitigation projects. The results show that the new measure is applicable to a general decision-making process under uncertainty.