Uncertainty In Performance Assessment Research Articles

Performance assessment and the safety case: lessons from the European Commission PAMINA project

AbstractA three-year European Commission project entitled performance assessment methodologies in application to guide the development of the safety case (PAMINA) was conducted in the period 2006–2009 and brought together 27 organizations from ten European countries, including the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority and Galson Sciences Ltd from the UK. The PAMINA project had the aim of improving and developing a common understanding of performance assessment (PA) methodologies for disposal concepts for spent fuel and other long-lived radioactive wastes in a range of geological environments.Work undertaken within PAMINA focussed on four areas: (1) review of PA methodologies in participating organizations; (2) treatment of uncertainty in PA and the safety case; (3) other methodological advancements in PA; and (4) relevance of advanced PA approaches to practical cases.The state of development of a radioactive waste disposal programme has a strong influence on the type of safety case and supporting PA that is produced. A range of PA methodologies has been developed by different waste management organizations. This paper presents a selection of conclusions from the PAMINA project, in the context of general understanding developed on what would constitute an acceptable safety case for a geological disposal facility, and outlines areas for further development.

Trace metal–humate interactions. I. Experimental determination of conditional stability constants

The enhancement of mobility of radionuclides in the geosphere through complexation by humic substances is a source of uncertainty in performance assessment of radioactive waste repositories. Only very few data sets are available which are relevant for performance assessment of an underground repository for radioactive waste. Using the equilibrium dialysis-ligand exchange method developed at the Paul Scherrer Institut, conditional stability constants for the formation of complexes of Aldrich humic acid with Ca 2+, NpO 2 +, Co 2+, Ni 2+, UO 2 2+ and Eu 3+ and complexes of Laurentian soil- and Suwannee River fulvic acid with Co 2+, UO 2 2+ and Eu 3+ were measured. pH was varied between 5 and 10 and ionic strength between 0.02 and 0.2 M. The data are presented as equilibrium coefficients that are free from any model assumptions. The equilibrium coefficients increased in the order Ca 2+≅NpO 2 +<Co 2+< Ni 2+<UO 2 2+< Eu 3+. The quality of the data is assessed in an extended discussion of statistical and systematical errors, and by a critical ‘rereview’ of the auxiliary stability constants used for the calculation of the equilibrium coefficients. An approximate overall uncertainty of 0.5 log-units is estimated for the stability data reported. The conditional stability constants were found to increase markedly with increasing pH in the case of Co 2+, UO 2 2+ and Eu 3+. For Ni 2+, Ca 2+ and NpO 2 + this effect was less pronounced. For all metal ions tested, the influence of ionic strength was of less importance, and the conditional stability constants did not show a significant dependence on the type of humic substances investigated.

Treatment of uncertainties in the performance assessment of geologic high-level radioactive waste repositories

Federal regulations governing the disposal of high-level radioactive waste in deep, geologic repositories require an assessment of performance over thousands of years. Because of the long regulatory period involved and the complex nature of the events and processes of interest, prediction of the performance of the disposal system will inevitably include uncertainties. These uncertainties come from a variety of sources, and some are quantifiable and others are not. This paper discusses these uncertainties and outlines approaches for their treatment. Recommendations for the potential resolution of current limitations in the treatment of uncertainties in performance assessment are made. Some general issues, as well as a suggested approach for incorporating expert judgment into quantitative performance assessment analysis, are discussed also.