Uncertainty In Age Estimates Research Articles

Robust methods, tricky materials: Challenges in dating high common-Pb perovskite from Cretaceous Brazilian kimberlites

Kimberlites and related rocks are the focus of research and exploration in the Alto Paranaiba Igneous Province (APIP; Brazil) due to their potential correlation with adjacent diamond fields. New U-Pb perovskite ages were obtained using recommended protocols for error propagation and data interpretation. Despite the utility of perovskites for dating, their incorporation of significant common-Pb (common-Pb of new APIP data: 52–84 % for in situ analyses, 75–95 % for TIMS concentrate analyses) limits the age resolution of this dating approach. Consequently, the APIP U-Pb ages neither confirm nor discredit previously proposed geodynamic models that invoke age progression or distinct magmatic episodes. Comparing the new ID-TIMS and LA-ICP-MS ages of the same intrusions, the LA-ICP-MS data have lower uncertainties, largely due to accessing a greater spread in common-Pb, improving regressions, and tend to yield older ages. For perovskite grains collected from weathering profiles, we found evidence of Pb-loss. This process leads to higher uncertainties in individual analyses, increased data scatter, and consequently higher uncertainties in age estimates. For fresh samples with different degrees of crustal contamination from a single intrusion, we found an indication of some variability in 207Pb/206Pb and 238U/206Pb ratios of the perovskite data, with a tendency towards older ages for more contaminated sample. For almost fresh intrusions with geochemically and isotopically similar mantle sources, related to the same event and in a close geographic area, we prefer to use a unique local 207Pb/206Pb ratio as anchoring for each Tera-Wasserburg plot. This approach is particularly preferred when perovskite data of an intrusion are too clustered and the 207Pb/206Pb ratio from the unanchored T-W differs from that predicted from theoretical Pb-isotope evolution model. Despite the high-common Pb in APIP perovskite crystals, our new data using these strategies clearly indicate that APIP magmatism is restricted to the Cretaceous, with most cases crystallized in Upper Cretaceous, but some from Early Cretaceous, such as the diamondiferous occurrence of Catalão-1b (120.6 ± 6.7 Ma). Different triggers of APIP magmatism are related to both episodes, mainly attributed to supercontinent break-up stages.

Validation of annual growth zone formation in gray triggerfish Balistes capriscus dorsal spines, vertebrae, and otoliths

Uncertainty in age estimates from dorsal spines has been a persistent issue in stock assessments of gray triggerfish, Balistes capriscus. This study sought to validate the annual deposition of growth zones on dorsal spines, vertebrae, and otoliths of gray triggerfish through chemical marking. Fish (n = 101) were collected from offshore habitats and held in an aquaculture facility. 74 adult fish were chemically marked with a 50 mg/kg body weight injection of calcein, and reared for an average of 527 days post-marking. At intervals, fish were sacrificed and first dorsal spines, vertebrae, and otoliths were extracted and sectioned. Annuli, were enumerated for spines (n = 96), vertebrae (n = 94), and otoliths (n = 48) and ranged from 0 to 11 annuli for spines and vertebrae, and 1–12 annuli for otoliths. Age bias plots showed strong agreement between spine and vertebra annuli counts for all observed ages, while counts from spines and vertebrae appeared to underage beginning at age 5 when compared to otolith annuli counts. Tests of symmetry indicated that the annuli counts between paired age structures were not biased (p > 0.05). Analysis of growth zones observed distal to calcein marks in all of the age structures confirmed that these zones were deposited annually, and the expected number of these zones, or annuli, were observed in 91% of spine, 90% of vertebrae, and 100% of otolith sections. Marginal increment analysis of ageing structures indicated that annuli form during summer months. Percentages of annuli deposited on the margins peaked in June for spines (58%) and otoliths (29%), and August for vertebrae (30%). Results from this study validate the annual deposition of growth zones but further consideration needs to be taken when ageing older than age-4.

A statistical model for quantifying age-reading errors and its application to the Antarctic minke whales

A statistical method for quantifying age-reading error, i.e. the extent of bias and inter-reader variability among readers, is introduced. The method assumes the availability of an independent ‘control reader’ who produces reference ages for age-reading structures which are also read by additional readers. This control reader is assumed to provide unbiased or consistently biased age estimates so that the additional readers’ age-reading outcomes can be standardised. Linear structures in bias and variance are incorporated in a conditional probability matrix representing the stochastic nature of age-determination for each reader. A joint likelihood function for the parameters related to age-reading bias, variance and nuisance parameters is defined based on observed age-reading outcomes from both the control and additional readers. The method is applied to data for Antarctic minke whales taken during Japanese commercial (1971/72–1986/87) and scientific (JARPA: 1987/88–2004/05, JARPA II: 2005/06–2010/11) whaling. A total of 250 earplugs selected according to a predetermined protocol were used in the analyses to estimate the inter-reader variation for four Japanese readers. One of the authors acted as the control reader. The Japanese readers and the control reader differed in terms of both the expected age given the true age, and variance in age-estimates. The expected age and random uncertainty in age-estimates differed among the Japanese readers, although the two readers in charge of age-reading for samples taken during Japanese scientific whaling (JARPA and JARPA II) provided quite similar agereading outcomes. These results contribute to analyses using catch-at-age data for this species. It should also be noted that the model and approach in this paper can be applied to populations other than the Antarctic minke whales, if a control reader is available, even retrospectively.

Accuracy, precision, and error in age estimation of Florida manatees using growth layer groups in earbones.

Ages of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) can be estimated by counting annual growth layer groups (GLGs) in the periotic dome portion of the tympanoperiotic complex of their earbones. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission manages an archive of more than 8,700 Florida manatee earbones collected from salvaged carcasses from 1989 to 2017. Our goal was to comprehensively evaluate techniques used to estimate age, given this large sample size and changes to processing protocols and earbone readers over time. We developed new standards for estimating ages from earbones, involving two independent readers to obtain measurements of within- and between-reader precision. To quantify accuracy, precision, and error, 111 earbones from manatees with approximately known ages (first known as calves: “KAC”) and 69 earbones from manatees with minimum known ages (“MKA,” based on photo-identification sighting histories) were processed, and their ages were estimated. There was greater precision within readers (coefficient of variation, CV: 2.4–8.5%) than between readers (CV: 13.1–13.3%). The median of age estimates fell within the true age range for 63.1% of KAC cases and was at least the sighting duration for 75.0% of MKA cases. Age estimates were generally unbiased, as indicated by an average raw error ± SD of −0.05 ± 3.05 years for the KAC group. The absolute error (i.e., absolute value of raw error) of the KAC data set averaged 1.75 ± 2.50 years. Accuracy decreased and error increased with increasing known age, especially for animals over 15 years old, whose ages were mostly underestimated due to increasing levels of resorption (the process of bone turnover that obscures GLGs). Understanding the degree of uncertainty in age estimates will help us assess the utility of age data in manatee population models. We emphasize the importance of standardizing and routinely reviewing age estimation and processing protocols to ensure that age data remain consistent and reliable.

Using correlated tephras to refine radiocarbon-based age models, upper and lower Whitshed Lakes, south-central Alaska

Abstract Tephra deposits correlated between nearby lakes provide the opportunity to improve age estimates of the sediment sequences, even if the ages of the tephras are previously unknown. We explore this potential using cryptotephras and visible tephra deposits in sediment cores from Upper and Lower Whitshed Lakes near Cordova, Alaska. Each tephra was described in terms of visual stratigraphy and shard morphology, and the major-oxide glass geochemistry was analyzed. Independent age models were developed for the cores using radiocarbon ages and profiles of short-lived radioisotopes for the near-surface sediments. Four tephras were correlated between the two lakes based on the magnitude and spacing of magnetic susceptibility peaks and glass major-oxide geochemistry. These correlations confirm agreement of the age models because the independently modeled confidence intervals overlap for each correlated tephra. The stratigraphic correlations were subsequently used to improve the age models by extracting the subset of possible age-model iterations that produce similar ages for each of the four correlated tephras at the two lakes. The iterations that agree within 25 years for each correlated tephra were used to create tephra-matched age models for both lakes, which narrowed the width of the 95% confidence intervals of the age models by 3% overall and reduced the uncertainty in age estimates of the correlated tephras by 34% on average. This synchronization technique may be useful in other studies that have multiple independently dated records with confident stratigraphic correlations.

Growth and annual survival estimates to examine the ecology of larval lamprey and the implications of ageing error in fitting models.

This study used existing western brook lamprey Lampetra richardsoni age information to fit three different growth models (i.e. von Bertalanffy, Gompertz and logistic) with and without error in age estimates. Among these growth models, there was greater support for the logistic and Gompertz models than the von Bertalanffy model, regardless of ageing error assumptions. The von Bertalanffy model, however, appeared to fit the data well enough to permit survival estimates; using length-based estimators, annual survival varied between 0·64 (95% credibility interval: 0·44-0·79) and 0·81 (0·79-0·83) depending on ageing and growth process error structure. These estimates are applicable to conservation and management of L. richardsoni and other western lampreys (e.g. Pacific lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus) and can potentially be used in the development of life-cycle models for these species. These results also suggest that estimators derived from von Bertalanffy growth models should be interpreted with caution if there is high uncertainty in age estimates.

Consequences of Secondary Calibrations on Divergence Time Estimates.

Secondary calibrations (calibrations based on the results of previous molecular dating studies) are commonly applied in divergence time analyses in groups that lack fossil data; however, the consequences of applying secondary calibrations in a relaxed-clock approach are not fully understood. I tested whether applying the posterior estimate from a primary study as a prior distribution in a secondary study results in consistent age and uncertainty estimates. I compared age estimates from simulations with 100 randomly replicated secondary trees. On average, the 95% credible intervals of node ages for secondary estimates were significantly younger and narrower than primary estimates. The primary and secondary age estimates were significantly different in 97% of the replicates after Bonferroni corrections. Greater error in magnitude was associated with deeper than shallower nodes, but the opposite was found when standardized by median node age, and a significant positive relationship was determined between the number of tips/age of secondary trees and the total amount of error. When two secondary calibrated nodes were analyzed, estimates remained significantly different, and although the minimum and median estimates were associated with less error, maximum age estimates and credible interval widths had greater error. The shape of the prior also influenced error, in which applying a normal, rather than uniform, prior distribution resulted in greater error. Secondary calibrations, in summary, lead to a false impression of precision and the distribution of age estimates shift away from those that would be inferred by the primary analysis. These results suggest that secondary calibrations should not be applied as the only source of calibration in divergence time analyses that test time-dependent hypotheses until the additional error associated with secondary calibrations is more properly modeled to take into account increased uncertainty in age estimates.

Persistence of pine species in late‐successional forests: evidence from habitat‐related variation in stand age structure

AbstractQuestionsBy what mechanisms do early‐successional tree species such as pines persist in late‐successional forests in regions where recurrence intervals for stand‐replacing disturbance are much longer than maximum tree life spans? How are recruitment patterns affected by habitat variation?LocationOld‐growth, mixed species stands of Pinus strobus, Pinus resinosa, Tsuga canadensis and Acer saccharum at 36 locations in three subregions of northeast Wisconsin and west upper Michigan, USA.MethodsFour to nine stands were located in each of six habitats and sampled in 200‐m2 plots. Increment cores were collected from 1456 trees, and charcoal collected and dated to characterize stand age structure and disturbance history. Stands on upland mesic sites, with strong successional trends toward late‐successional species, were compared to those on ‘marginal’ habitats (rock outcrops, sandy inclusions and lake, river and wetland edges), where competition is comparatively low. We developed a new methodology that utilizes uncertainty in establishment dates to more rigorously distinguish even‐aged stands (the null hypothesis) from those with multiple age classes.ResultsAnalysis of tree germination dates suggests that some stands with an apparently broad range of pine ages primarily reflect uncertainty in age estimates rather than actual periods of extended pine recruitment. Nevertheless, multi‐aged populations of pine (rejection of the even‐aged null hypothesis) were found in 86% of the stands and in all habitats. Marginal habitats had more age classes than mesic sites (mean 2.8 vs 1.7; P = 0.007) and greater age diversity. Disturbances that initiated pine cohorts were more often severe and more often caused by fire on mesic sites than on marginal habitats. Pine establishment was somewhat episodic in all three subregions, but age‐class peaks across subregions had limited synchrony and were not strongly correlated with severe drought.ConclusionsThese findings are consistent with growing evidence that age structures of early‐successional tree species in primary forests are often more complex than commonly believed, and that population structure and persistence are strongly influenced by habitat variation. Pine age structures provide indirect support for ‘refuge‐based’ landscape persistence, with dispersal limitation overcome by persistent seed sources in nearby marginal habitats.

Divergence time uncertainty and historical biogeography reconstruction – an example from Urophylleae (Rubiaceae)

AbstractAim When hypotheses of historical biogeography are evaluated, age estimates of individual nodes in a phylogeny often have a direct impact on what explanation is concluded to be most likely. Confidence intervals of estimated divergence times obtained in molecular dating analyses are usually very large, but the uncertainty is rarely incorporated in biogeographical analyses. The aim of this study is to use the group Urophylleae, which has a disjunct pantropical distribution, to explore how the uncertainty in estimated divergence times affects conclusions in biogeographical analysis. Two hypotheses are evaluated: (1) long‐distance dispersal from Africa to Asia and the Neotropics, and (2) a continuous distribution in the boreotropics, probably involving migration across the North Atlantic Land Bridge, followed by isolation in equatorial refugia.Location Tropical and subtropical Asia, tropical Africa, and central and southern tropical America.Methods This study uses parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of chloroplast DNA and nuclear ribosomal DNA data from 56 ingroup species, beast molecular dating and a Bayesian approach to dispersal–vicariance analysis (Bayes‐DIVA) to reconstruct the ancestral area of the group, and the dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis method to test biogeographical hypotheses.Results When the two models of geographic range evolution were compared using the maximum likelihood (ML) tree with mean estimates of divergence times, boreotropical migration was indicated to be much more likely than long‐distance dispersal. Analyses of a large sample of dated phylogenies did, however, show that this result was not consistent. The age estimate of one specific node had a major impact on likelihood values and on which model performed best. The results show that boreotropical migration provides a slightly better explanation of the geographical distribution patterns of extant Urophylleae than long‐distance dispersal.Main conclusions This study shows that results from biogeographical analyses based on single phylogenetic trees, such as a ML or consensus tree, can be misleading, and that it may be very important to take the uncertainty in age estimates into account. Methods that account for the uncertainty in topology, branch lengths and estimated divergence times are not commonly used in biogeographical inference today but should definitely be preferred in order to avoid unwarranted conclusions.

ESTIMATING DIVERSIFICATION RATES: HOW USEFUL ARE DIVERGENCE TIMES?

The dynamics of species diversification rates are a key component of macroevolutionary patterns. Although not absolutely necessary, the use of divergence times inferred from sequence data has led to development of more powerful methods for inferring diversification rates. However, it is unclear what impact uncertainty in age estimates have on diversification rate inferences. Here, we quantify these effects using both Bayesian and frequentist methodology. Through simulation, we demonstrate that adding sequence data results in more precise estimates of internal node ages, but a reasonable approximation of these node ages is often sufficient to approach the theoretical minimum variance in speciation rate estimates. We also find that even crude estimates of divergence times increase the power of tests of diversification rate differences between sister clades. Finally, because Bayesian and frequentist methods provided similar assessments of error, novel Bayesian approaches may provide a useful framework for tests of diversification rates in more complex contexts than are addressed here.

PCBs and organochlorine pesticides in blubber biopsies from free-ranging St. Lawrence River Estuary beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas), 1994–1998

For the first time, organochlorine (OC) contaminants were measured in blubber biopsies from free-ranging St. Lawrence River Estuary beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas), to compare contaminant levels to those previously measured in dead stranded belugas. PCBs, DDTs, toxaphene and chlordane-related compounds were the major OC contaminants detected in 44 belugas biopsied in 1994–1998. ΣPCB (the sum of 104 congeners) ranged from 2080 to 128,000 ng/g lipid in males ( n=34; minimum estimated ages 8–22 years), and from 148 to 44,100 ng/g lipid in females ( n=10; minimum estimated ages 7–22 years). The concentrations of PCBs and OC pesticides in the blubber of these whales overlapped those observed in stranded belugas from an earlier study, and demonstrated comparable age and sex-related trends. However, lower proportions of mirex, HCB, DDTs, and many of the highly chlorinated PCBs occurred in the biopsy samples compared to results for blubber from stranded carcasses. Most major OC compounds were present at lower concentrations in the biopsies, but this does not appear to be solely related to age differences between the two groups, or to emaciation in the stranded whales. Nor does it appear to be associated with the use of superficial biopsies, and the possible stratification of lipids and OCs in the blubber layer. Nevertheless, given these possible confounding factors, and the uncertainty in age estimates for the biopsied whales, the results point to the need for careful interpretation of biopsy results when comparing with data taken from the full depth of the blubber mantle in stranded whales. Taken together, results from both biopsied whales and previously studied stranded belugas indicate that PCB and OC pesticide contamination of St. Lawrence beluga whales may occur across a broader range of levels than previously thought, at least for males which formed the largest group in this study, possibly due to different degrees of dietary exposure. It also appears that measuring contaminant concentrations only in stranded whales, may overestimate OC levels in the population as a whole, especially for highly chlorinated OCs.

Faunal and environmental change in the late Miocene Siwaliks of northern Pakistan

The Siwalik formations of northern Pakistan consist of deposits of ancient rivers that existed throughout the early Miocene through the late Pliocene. The formations are highly fossil- iferous with a diverse array of terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates, which in combination with exceptional lateral exposure and good chronostratigraphic control allows a more detailed and tem- porally resolved study of the sediments and faunas than is typical in terrestrial deposits. Conse- quently the Siwaliks provide an opportunity to document temporal differences in species richness, turnover, and ecological structure in a terrestrial setting, and to investigate how such differences are related to changes in the fluvial system, vegetation, and climate. Here we focus on the interval between 10.7 and 5.7 Ma, a time of significant local tectonic and global climatic change. It is also the interval with the best temporal calibration of Siwalik faunas and most comprehensive data on species occurrences. A methodological focus of this paper is on controlling sampling biases that confound biological and ecological signals. Such biases include uneven sampling through time, differential preservation of larger animals and more durable skeletal elements, errors in age-dating imposed by uncertainties in correlation and paleomagnetic timescale calibrations, and uneven tax- onomic treatment across groups. We attempt to control for them primarily by using a relative-abun- dance model to estimate limits for the first and last appearances from the occurrence data. This model also incorporates uncertainties in age estimates. Because of sampling limitations inherent in the terrestrial fossil record, our 100-Kyr temporal resolution may approach the finest possible level of resolution for studies of vertebrate faunal changes over periods of millions of years. Approximately 40,000 specimens from surface and screenwash collections made at 555 localities form the basis of our study. Sixty percent of the localities have maximum and minimum age esti- mates differing by 100 Kyr or less, 82% by 200 Kyr or less. The fossils represent 115 mammalian species or lineages of ten orders: Insectivora, Scandentia, Primates, Tubulidentata, Proboscidea, Pholidota, Lagomorpha, Perissodactyla, Artiodactyla, and Rodentia. Important taxa omitted from this study include Carnivora, Elephantoidea, and Rhinocerotidae. Because different collecting methods were used for large and small species, they are treated separately in analyses. Small spe- cies include insectivores, tree shrews, rodents, lagomorphs, and small primates. They generally weigh less than 5 kg. The sediments of the study interval were deposited by coexisting fluvial systems, with the larger emergent Nagri system being displaced between 10.1 and 9.0 Ma by an interfan Dhok Pathan sys- tem. In comparison to Nagri floodplains, Dhok Pathan floodplains were less well drained, with smaller rivers having more seasonally variable flow and more frequent avulsions. Paleosol se- quences indicate reorganization of topography and drainage accompanying a transition to a more seasonal climate. A few paleosols may have formed under waterlogged, grassy woodlands, but most formed under drier conditions and more closed vegetation. The oxygen isotopic record also indicates significant change in the patterns of precipitation be- ginning at 9.2 Ma, in what may have been a shift to a drier and more seasonal climate. The carbon isotope record demonstrates that after 8.1 Ma significant amounts of C 4 grasses began to appear and that by 6.8 Ma floodplain habitats included extensive C4 grasslands. Plant communities with predominantly C3 plants were greatly diminished after 7.0 Ma, and those with predominantly C4 plants, which would have been open woodlands or grassy woodlands, appeared as early as 7.4 Ma. Inferred first and last appearances show a constant, low level of faunal turnover throughout the interval 10.7-5.7-Ma, with three short periods of elevated turnover at 10.3, 7.8, and 7.3-7.0 Ma. The three pulses account for nearly 44% of all turnover. Throughout the late Miocene, species richness declined steadily, and diversity and richness indices together with data on body size imply that community ecological structure changed abruptly just after 10 Ma, and then again at 7.8 Ma. Be- tween 10 and 7.8 Ma the large-mammal assemblages were strongly dominated by equids, with more balanced faunas before and after. The pattern of appearance and disappearance is selective with respect to inferred habits of the animals. Species appearing after 9.0 Ma are grazers or typical of more open habitats, whereas many species that disappear can be linked to more closed vege- tation. We presume exceptions to this pattern were animals of the mixed C

Galactic Cosmochronometry from Radioactive Elements in the Spectra of Very Old Metal-Poor Stars

In a short review of neutron-capture elemental abundances in Galactic halo stars, emphasis is placed on the use of these elements to estimate the age of the Galactic halo. Two prominent characteristics of neutron-capture elements in halo stars are their large star-to-star scatter in the overall abundance level with respect to lighter elements, and the dominance of r-process abundance patterns at lowest stellar metallicities. The r-process abundance signature potentially allows the direct determination of the age of the earliest Galactic halo nucleosynthesis events, but further developments in r-process theory, high resolution spectroscopy of very metal-poor stars, and in basic atomic data are needed to narrow the uncertainties in age estimates. Attention is brought to the importance of accurate transition probabilities in neutron-capture element cosmochronometry. Recent progress in the transition probabilities of rare earth elements is discussed, along with suggestions for future work on other species.

Morphology and genesis of carbonate soils on the Kyle Canyon fan, Nevada, U.S.A.

The physical and chemical properties of soils formed in an arid climate on calcareous alluvium of the Kyle Canyon alluvial fan, southern Nevada, were studied in order to infer the rates and relative importance of various soil-forming processes. These studies included field and microscopic observations and analyses of thin sections, major oxides, extractable iron, and clay minerals. The results are interpreted to reflect five major pedogenic processes: (1) The calcic horizons and calcretes of Kyle Canyon soils form by precipitation of CaCO 3, derived from eolian dust and alluvium, as clast coats, matrix cement, and massive layers. (2) The A and uppermost B horizons are essentially dust-derived, for they contain large amounts of detrital material not present in the alluvial parent material, and their major-oxide content is similar to that of modern dust. (3) Clay particles are translocated from A into B horizons. (4) Iron-bearing minerals in the near-surface B horizons are slowly oxidized. (5) Carbonate and aluminosilicate grains are both displaced and replaced by pedogenic CaCO 3; the silica released by replacement of aluminosilicates may be locally precipitated as amorphous or opaline silica and (or) incorporated into newly formed palygorskite and sepiolite. Rates of soil development at Kyle Canyon are approximate due to uncertainties in age estimates. Some soil field properties change at rates that are similar to rates for soils formed in rhyolitic parent material near Mercury, Nevada. The rate of accumulation of CaCO 3 (3–5 g m −2 yr −1) at Kyle Canyon is an order of magnitude faster than that near Mercury, but is comparable to rates calculated for soils in southern New Mexico and Utah.