Policy Uncertainty Research Articles

Strategy towards sustainable energy transition: The effect of policy uncertainty, environmental technology and natural resources rent in the OECD nations

The stupendous increase in environmental pollutants alongside climate alterations are calling for integrated tasks at the global level to meet the Paris Agreements. Energy conversion from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources is an important step to address the adverse effects of extreme climatic conditions. This study explores the key contributors of energy transition in the context of the OECD countries during the period 1991 to 2019. To this end the major determinants chosen include natural resources rents, policy uncertainty, environmental technologies, environmental policies, income and globalization. The quantile regression technique is used to explore heterogeneous role of the contributory factors of energy transition across its different levels. This study applies method of moments quantile regression (hereafter MM-QR) by Machado and Silva (2019) that provides evidence on how the covariates affect the integral conditional distributions of energy transition. The study documents interesting findings. (i) Natural resources rents reduce the pace of the progress of sustainable energy transition in OECD economies. (ii) An escalation in the world uncertainty index leads to an improvement in energy transition index. (iii) Environmental technologies support the transition concerning cleaner and more efficient energy sources. (iv) Finally, as natural resources, uncertainty, environmental technologies, and globalization impacts energy transition differently, their effects need to be rationalized with varying environmental policy instruments. The study concludes that energy transition process requires the task of upgrading the quality of implementation of policies related to energy technology.

Does climate policy uncertainty impair or improve corporate investment efficiency?

Climate policy uncertainty (CPU) has been a topical issue given its widespread impacts, but its effect on corporate investment efficiency is arguable. Based on a sample of Chinese listed firms, we find that higher CPU results in lower investment levels while higher investment sensitivity to investment opportunities. This suggests that CPU improves investment efficiency by pushing firms to reduce investment expenditures and align their investment decisions more in line with investment opportunities. We name this finding as the pushback effect of CPU and find that it is more pronounced for firms with overinvestment or tight financial conditions.

Global Economic Policy Uncertainties and International Oil Price Volatility Under Alternative Market Conditions

This study mainly investigates the predictability prowess of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) for oil price volatility under different market episodes. The results clearly show that the GEPU-oil price volatility nexus is episodic in nature. While evidence of mean reverting stance is confirmed across the sectionalized market phases, the long-term impact of GEPU in the nexus holds true for the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, and oil price shock episodes.

The impact of supply chain finance on financial constraints of small and medium-sized enterprises and the moderating factors

ABSTRACT Supply chain finance (SCF) has gained significant popularity and has been extensively implemented in practical applications to facilitate cash flow by involving financial institutions. However, there are very few empirical studies on SCF. This study examines whether and how much SCF can alleviate financial constraints of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Furthermore, we examine the impact of information asymmetry, financial development depth, and economic policy uncertainty on the effectiveness of SCF. These three moderating factors correspond to the influence of firms, local financial development, and national government on SCF effectiveness, respectively. The empirical analysis shows that SCF can alleviate SMEs’ financial constraints significantly, and this effect is more pronounced for firms with higher information disclosure quality and located in financially developed areas. Our findings have important implications for firms and authorities, such as understanding the dynamics of SCF and developing appropriate measures and frameworks to promote the broad adoption and effective utilization of SCF.

Does climate policy uncertainty influence the corporate cost of debt?

This paper employs a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies spanning from 2011 to 2022 to empirically investigate the influence of climate policy uncertainty on the corporate cost of debt, based on the theory of financial friction. We find that climate policy uncertainty significantly increases the corporate cost of debt, and the result is supported by robustness tests. To avoid biases arisen from endogeneity, this paper introduces an instrumental variable approach and propensity score matching method for verification. The endogeneity test results support the baseline regression results as well. Finally, this paper also discovers that financing constraints are the potential mechanism behind the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the corporate cost of debt.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Fluctuations in Monthly IPO Volume: Evidence from the US

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Fluctuations in Monthly IPO Volume: Evidence from the US

Assessing the impact of three emission (3E) parameters on environmental quality in Canada: A provincial data analysis using the quantiles via moments approach

ABSTRACT Existing studies rarely examine the simultaneous effects of three emitting indicators (3E) – full emitting non-renewable, non-emitting renewable, and low-emitting nuclear - on three specific greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, and N2O. We investigate the impact of three energy types on environmental quality, using Canadian data from 1990-2022. It incorporates macroeconomic policies, economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and eco-innovation, and employs the quantiles via moments method to explore the evolving relationships among these factors, considering provincial variances. Findings reveal that non-renewable energy sources deteriorate environmental quality by increasing CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions across all quantiles (from q.5 to q.95), while renewable and nuclear energies, along with eco-innovation initiatives, have a beneficial effect by reducing greenhouse gas emissions across all quantiles. Economic policy uncertainty is a contributing factor to greenhouse gas emissions across all quantiles, whereas geopolitical risks primarily impact the middle to upper quantiles (from q.50 to q.95). To counteract the lack of cross-sectional dependence in the quantiles via moments methodology, this paper employs Driscoll and Kraay’s standard errors approach to fortify its findings’ reliability. It concludes with policy suggestions promoting renewable energy and eco-innovation through increased investment, vibrant long-term policies, provincial collaboration, and adoption of green technologies.

Heterogeneous Influence of Capital Flight and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Domestic Investment in Nigeria: New Evidence from Quantile Nonlinear ARDL

This study explores the heterogeneous influence of capital flight and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on domestic investment in Nigeria. The study utilizes the novel quantile-based nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (QNARDL) estimation procedure to estimate both the sign-based and the size-based asymmetric influence of capital flight and EPU on domestic investment. The investigation’s outcomes are as follows: First, capital flight influences domestic investment negatively, predominantly in the upper quantiles. Second, it demonstrates that country-specific EPU and its global-based variant significantly negatively affect a country’s investment. Third, the study finds that domestic and world policy uncertainty aggravates the suppressing effect of capital flight on domestic investment. Fourth, a robust unidirectional causality from EPU (indigenous and world) to capital flight implies that policy uncertainty enervates the business climate and creates fear of losses among investors, affecting investment negatively. Fifth, the study indicates an increasing rate of devastating influence of EPU on domestic investment, with more pernicious effects at the upper quantile. The implication is that the devastating effect of EPU (whether country-based or world-based) on domestic investment is highly sensitive to its size. The policy recommendations from the main discoveries have been suggested.

The Heterogeneous Impact of Economic and Environmental Policy Uncertainty on the Digital Economy: Fresh Evidence Based on the Bilateral Stochastic Frontier Model

The Heterogeneous Impact of Economic and Environmental Policy Uncertainty on the Digital Economy: Fresh Evidence Based on the Bilateral Stochastic Frontier Model

Effects of Working Capital Management on Small-Sized Businesses in Competitive Environments with Economic Policy Uncertainty—A Case Study Applied to Chilean Companies

Working capital is a strategic resource that not only enhances financial performance but also ensures the long-term sustainability of organizations, especially SMEs. In the context of evolving economic policies and the challenges of gender equity affecting Chilean companies, this study explores how economic policy risk (EPU) and CEO characteristics influence working capital, which are essential investments for sustainable growth. The analysis covers 12,839 SMEs from 2014 to 2019. Using a fixed-effects panel data model, the findings reveal that firms tend to increase their investment in working capital in response to rising economic policy uncertainty. However, the relationship follows a non-linear inverted U-shaped pattern, which suggests the existence of an investment optimum between working capital and the EPU. Considering the level of competition, companies increase their investment in working capital when the level of competition is higher. Regarding the gender and age of CEOs, it is observed that women invest less in working capital, as do young CEOs. These results underscore the importance of EPU, along with the gender and age of CEOs, as key factors in promoting sustainable working capital management.

Research on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Investor Sentiment on the Growth Enterprise Market Return in China—An Empirical Study Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

This study employs the economic policy uncertainty index to gauge the level of economic policy uncertainty in China. Utilizing textual data from the growth enterprise market internet community, we construct the growth enterprise market investor sentiment index by applying the deep learning ERNIE (Enhanced Representation through Knowledge Integration) model, thereby capturing investors’ sentiment within the growth enterprise market. The dynamic interplay between economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and returns of the growth enterprise market is scrutinized via the TVP-SV-VAR (time-varying parameter stochastic volatility vector auto-regression) model, and the asymmetric response of different industries’ stock returns within the growth enterprise market to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment shock. The findings of this research are that economic policy uncertainty exerts a negative influence on both investor sentiment and returns of the growth enterprise market. While it may trigger a temporary decline in stock prices, the empirical evidence suggests that the impact is of short duration. The influence of investor sentiment on the growth enterprise market returns is characterized by a reversal effect, suggesting that improved sentiment may initially boost stock prices but could lead to a subsequent decline over the long term. The relationship between economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and returns of the growth enterprise market is time-variant, with heightened sensitivity observed during bull markets. Lastly, the effects of economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment on the returns of different industries within the growth enterprise market are found to be asymmetric. These conclusions contribute to the existing body of literature on the Chinese capital market, offering a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics and the factors influencing market behavior.

Climate policy uncertainty and its impact on real estate market dynamics: A sectoral and regional analysis.

This study explores the impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) on real estate market volatility, utilizing the CPU index to assess how climate policy affects various real estate segments. It highlights the significant impact of CPU on sectors with high energy demand and emissions, such as industrial and residential. A multi-horizon analysis reveals the long-term sensitivity of CPU's influence, with significant sensitivity noted in coastal regions prone to climate risks. The findings provide crucial insights for investors and policymakers, emphasizing the importance of integrating CPU considerations into strategic decision-making for real estate investment.

Climate policy uncertainty and its impact on the volatility, correlation, and hedging of sovereign and green bonds

This study develops monthly climate policy uncertainty (CPU) indexes for 21 economies and three global CPU indexes to evaluate their effects on the long-term sovereign and green bond volatilities and the long-term sovereign-green bond correlation. Findings show significant increases in the CPU indexes during key climate policy events. Using the extended GARCH-MIDAS-CPU and DCC-MIDAS-CPU models, it finds that CPU significantly affects sovereign bond volatility following the Paris Agreement. Green bonds are more effective as hedging tools in the sovereign bond markets of emerging markets and developing economies than in developed ones, especially post-Paris Agreement. Diversified portfolios including green bonds offer superior hedging effectiveness. This study highlights the pivotal role of green bonds in managing CPU and promoting sustainable development goals.

Time-Varying Spillover Effects Between Clean and Traditional Energy Under Multiple Uncertainty Risk: Evidence from the U.S. Market

The global energy landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation with the rapid development of clean energy and the continued significance of traditional energy creating a complex dynamic relationship. This study employs the TVP-QVAR-DY model to systematically examine the dynamic spillover effects between clean and traditional energy markets in the United States, focusing on the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR). The findings reveal (1) significant time-varying spillover effects between the two markets, with total spillover effects ranging from 30% to 50%, intensifying during extreme events; (2) increases in EPU and GPR exacerbate uncertainty in energy markets, particularly in the traditional energy sector, with spillover effects from crude oil to natural gas reaching 23.60% and vice versa at 24.30%; and (3) in the short term, the clean energy market is influenced by traditional energy, with spillover effects from oil to clean energy at 5.10%, while in the medium to long term it gradually becomes independent and inversely affects the traditional energy market, contributing 2.94% to oil spillovers. The results indicate that as the global energy transition deepens, the clean energy market is shifting from a risk receiver to a risk contributor. Based on these findings, the study proposes policy recommendations including accelerating energy structure transition, managing macroeconomic uncertainty risks, coordinating domestic and international energy markets, and leveraging market mechanisms.

Can Trade Policy Uncertainty Drive Green Innovation? Empirical Evidence From the US–China Trade War

ABSTRACTChina's rapid economic growth in recent years has coincided with heightened environmental regulations and an upsurge in greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating a greater emphasis on green innovation to mitigate environmental risks. Concurrently, the US–China trade war has elevated trade policy uncertainty (TPU). This study uses the TPU surge from the trade war as a quasi‐natural experiment, employing text analysis of annual reports to assess firms' TPU perceptions. Using a difference‐in‐differences method, we find that increased TPU significantly hinders green innovation. Firms' responses vary with environmental advantages, regulation levels, and government subsidies. Mechanisms include reduced environmental investment, decreased executive attention to environmental issues, and corporate social responsibility. These findings underscore the importance of a stable trading environment for promoting green innovation.

Economic policy uncertainty and dividend policy: Insight from private firms

This study examines whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is associated with corporate dividend policy. Using a sample of private firms, we find that EPU is negatively related to dividend payouts. Our main findings are robust to endogeneity concerns, omitted variable problems, simultaneity bias, and alternative measures of EPU. Further, we find that firms are less likely to pay dividends when EPU is higher, confirming our main results. We also find that the negative relation between EPU and dividend payouts is stronger for firms with higher leverage, operating cash flows, sales growth, return on assets, and cash flow volatility than their counterparts. In contrast, the negative relation is weaker for firms with higher retained earnings-to-total equity ratios. Our study highlights that issues such as EPU can influence the dividend payout policies of private firms.

Economic policy uncertainty and common prosperity within the enterprise: Evidence from the Chinese market.

In the continuous development of the Chinese economy, the desire for common prosperity among the people has become increasingly strong. However, the complex domestic and international situations, along with the economic uncertainties post-pandemic, have introduced significant uncertainties into government economic policies. In the long term, this uncertainty has a profound impact on intra-enterprise common prosperity, affecting society at large. This paper focuses on non-financial listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2011 to 2020, examining the negative effects of economic policy uncertainty on intra-enterprise common prosperity. The results indicate that economic policy uncertainty has a significant adverse impact on intra-enterprise common prosperity, and this impact is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises, those in the growth life cycle, and companies with poor innovation capabilities and limited external support. Companies enhancing social responsibility and overall factor productivity can help mitigate these negative effects. Furthermore, in dynamic features, as the level of intra-enterprise common prosperity increases, the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty gradually diminishes, while the positive effects of overall factor productivity and corporate social responsibility on enterprises become more evident.

Climate policy uncertainty and economic growth, a moderating role of crude oil price changes: evidence from the Asian economies

Purpose This study aims to inspect the impact of US climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on the economic growth of Asian countries with the moderating role of crude oil price (COP) changes. Design/methodology/approach The Im-Pesaran Sin and Fisher-type tests are used for stationarity check, while Kao and Pedroni tests are used for cointegration analysis. The Hausman test is applied for model selection, where pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG/ARDL) has been selected and applied. Besides, the fully modified ordinary least squares is also used for robustness analysis. Additionally, the literature review and descriptive statistics have been used. Findings The main findings disclosed that US CPU negatively impacted the economic growth of Asian economies with high significance in the long run whereas insignificant in the short run. The results further concluded that COP positively affected economic growth both in the short and long run. Furthermore, the results also revealed that COP significantly and positively moderates the relationship between CPU and COP in the long and short run. Originality/value The study is the first of its kind to examine the impact of the US CPU on the economic growth of Asian economies. Second, it further revealed the moderating role of COP between US CPU and economic growth. Third, a large panel of data from Asian countries has been considered. Fourth, the study adds to the current literature by using the PMG/ARDL model to determine the impact of US CPU on economic growth. Additionally, this study focuses on the US CPU because it is a developed country playing a significant role in energy and climate issues, and has been very uncertain.

Ease of Doing Business and Entrepreneurial Growth in the Face of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty

This study investigates the impact of ease of doing business on entrepreneurial growth in Nigeria from 2010 to 2023, particularly in the context of global economic policy uncertainty. Using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor and the World Development Indicator, the study applies an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the relationship between ease of doing business factors, such as access to credit, contract enforcement, and regulation, and entrepreneurial activity. The findings show that while improvements in the business environment significantly foster entrepreneurship, economic uncertainty hampers its growth. The study recommends that Nigeria should enhance its business environment and create safety nets to mitigate the adverse effects of global economic uncertainties. These insights are valuable for policymakers aiming to promote entrepreneurship and economic resilience in developing countries.

How does climate policy uncertainty influence sustainable development? Unraveling role of recycling and natural resources in the United States

How does climate policy uncertainty influence sustainable development? Unraveling role of recycling and natural resources in the United States