Unbelievable Results Research Articles

Efficient algorithm for stochastic rumor blocking problem in social networks during safety accident period

Rumor sources spread negative information throughout the network, which may cause unbelievable results in real society especially for social safety field. Propagating positive information from several “protector” users is an effective method for rumor blocking once the rumor is detected. Based on the probability of each user being a rumor, “protector” nodes need to be selected in order to prepare for rumor blocking. Given a social network G=(V,E,P,Q), where P(u,v) is the probability that v is activated by u after u is activated, and Q is the weight function on node set V, Qv is the probability that v will be a rumor source. Stochastic Rumor Blocking (SRB) problem is to select k nodes as “protector” such that the expected eventually influenced users by rumor is minimized. SRB will be proved to be NP-hard and the objective function is supermodular. We present a Compound Reverse Influence Set sampling method for estimation of the objective value which can be represented as a compound set function. A randomized greedy algorithm with theoretical analysis will be presented and other two different “protector” selection strategies will be proposed for comparison. Finally, we evaluate our algorithm on real world data sets and do comparison among different strategies.

Data augmentation based estimation for the censored quantile regression neural network model

Quantile regression neural network (QRNN) model has received wide attentions in recent years to explore complex nonlinear problems. However, when the responses yi are subject to censoring (left censoring, right censoring and interval censoring might occur), predictions by using observed data, will lead to unbelievable results. Thus, new method for QRNN model with censored data is appealing. In this paper, we propose an iterative approach based on the data augmentation method for censored QRNN model estimation. Firstly the censored data are imputed through a data augmentation process, then the QRNN model is updated with the imputed data, finally we make predictions through the updated QRNN model. It is worth mentioning that simulation studies and real data illustrations show the superiority of our proposed method. Using the results based on full uncensored data as the benchmark, we compare the estimation efficiency of the proposed method with the existing ones. Our method outperforms others in terms of quantile loss and prediction interval width, yielding prediction results that are much closer to the benchmark. The proposed estimation method for censored QRNN model can be easily adapted to deal with different censoring types including left censoring, right censoring and interval censoring, remedying the defect that existing method is only suitable for right censoring type.

Multi-sources information fusion analysis of water inrush disaster in tunnels based on improved theory of evidence

Water inrush is one of the most serious geological disasters threatening tunnel construction. Generally, complexity and multi-sources feature of physical information existing in tunnel construction make disaster prediction very difficult, how to accurately predict the disaster becomes a hot topic in the field of tunnel engineering. Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence is a widely used method for reasoning with multiple evidences, however some unbelievable results usually appear in dealing with highly conflicting evidences by its traditional combination rule. Thus an improved fusion algorithm based on weighted average of evidence conflict probability was firstly introduced into risk prediction of water inrush disaster. Through the improved algorithm, multi-sources precursor information measured from previous model test were fused to predict quantitative risk levels of water inrush for different excavation step of subsea tunnel in the model test. The predicted high risk at the 12th excavation step by improved algorithm agreed well with actual phenomenon of intensive seepage observed in the test, while the traditional method gave a lower level. Moreover, the improved algorithm predicted a more accuracy result in the phase of water inrush (at 16th excavation step shown in test). In brief, the improved algorithm can make more accuracy prediction for water inrush disasters and will provide valuable reference for similar engineering.

Bike Sharing Prediction using Deep Neural Networks

In this paper, we will use deep neural networks for predicting the bike sharing usage based on previous years usage data. We will use because deep neural nets for getting higher accuracy. Deep neural nets are quite different from other machine learning techniques; here we can add many numbers of hidden layers to improve the accuracy of our prediction and the model can be trained in the way we want such that we can achieve the results we want. Nowadays many AI experts will say that deep learning is the best AI technique available now and we can achieve some unbelievable results using this technique. Now we will use that technique to predict bike sharing usage of a rental company to make sure they can take good business decisions based on previous years data.

Upotreba Kaizen filozofije u upravljačkim strukturama kompanija u Srbiji / The Use of Keizen Philosophy in the Managing Structures in the Companies in Serbia

In the moment when there is a question mark over the economy of every country and the markets are not stable, but ever changing, moving forward, and/or collapsing, one of the most successful approaches to the survival and improvement of the management of the companies is Keizen concept. Keizen concept of management is philosophy that is initially used in Japan, where it comes from, but in other places all around the world as well, mostly in America and the countries in Western civilization. Keizen philosophy is the concept of continuous improvement, which, strategically observed, contributes improvement and prosperity of the companies. Having in mind its occurrence, the first results of Keizen philosophy’s approach can be identified in the development of Japanese economy, which reached unbelievable results and improvement only few years after the Second World War. Japanese companies very soon became competitive at the global market thanks to Kaizen philosophy, no matter the fact that his approach includes managing concepts and concepts of business organization which are diametrically opposite to the current dominant opinion and application of the concepts of managing business organization from the Western companies. This is the reason why the idea of this paper is to show the main values that are in the core of Kaizen philosophy and to show that the application of this business concept is possible in Serbia, besides the small number of those who already did it. The aim of this paper is to bring closer the importance of the development of human resources and their influence on the structure of the companies’ management, because only with the human resources department based well, there is a possibility of Keizen philosophy application.

An Arithmetic Analysis of Bangladeshi Sending Migrants Stock and Remittance Per Capita in Malaysia

Unskilled and short-term labour migration from Bangladesh to Malaysia has long historical phenomenon which has been contributing both countries micro and macro economy in terms of remittances (Bangladesh) and shortage of 3D labour (Malaysia). This paper objective is to describe migration process, pattern and policies as a sending country (Bangladesh) and receiving country (Malaysia) between developing-developing nations. This study uses cross data from official sources of Bangladesh, Malaysia and also World Bank migration and remittances database. The arithmetic analysis indicates that there is no significance relationship between migration stock and remittance per capita (migrant in Malaysia). The descriptive statistics show that the cumulative and documented migrant stock has been decreasing while volume and per capita remittance has been increasing during the period. The most exciting results provide that the per capita remittance increased during 10 years 5,154.36% based on cumulative sending migrant stock from Bangladesh. Furthermore, the unbelievable results provide that the per capita remittance increase since 2005 to 2014 over 10 years 11,636.10% based on documented migrant stock. On the other hand documented migrant stock increased only 21.78%. Thus the study suggest depth investigation between the countries actual migrant stock (documented and undocumented) and remittance (formal or informal) and to develop better framework to recruit international labour in Malaysia (high deficiency of general labour) especially for Bangladesh (high labour surplus).

Correction method for non-landing measuring of vehicle-mounted theodolite based on static datum conversion

During the non-landing measuring of vehicle mounted theodolite, especially under high-speed tracking measurement, the misalignment of theodolite’s center of mass and spindle etc. will cause high-frequency vibration of theodolite platform, increase the observation error of targets and even unbelievable results. In this paper, a correction method of non-landing measuring of theodolite based on static datum conversion is presented, which can effectively improve the observation accuracy of theodolite. The CCD camera is fixed to the theodolite platform to calculate the gesture shaking quantity of theodolite platform in geodetic coordinate system through the real time imaging of static datum. The observation results of theodolite are corrected by using such shaking quantity. The experiment shows that the correction accuracy exceeds 10 s of arc. The intrinsic parameter calibration technology of camera based on stellar angular distance and absolute conic put forward in this paper can prevent the estimated error of extrinsic parameters influencing the intrinsic parameter calibration and improve the intrinsic parameter calibration accuracy; the static datum conversion technology can reduce the influence of installation error of camera and theodolite platform on gesture measuring of the platform. The simulation experiment shows that when the shaking range of the platform is less than 30 min of arc, the influence of the three-axis installation error of camera within 3deg on the accuracy of correction results is less than 8 s of arc. The method in this paper can be extended to and used in the field of gesture shaking measuring and micro-structure deformation of various unstable platforms, therefore it is of important theoretical research significance and has wide engineering application prospect.

A comment on: ‘On some contradictory computations in multi-dimensional mathematics’

In this paper we analyze the status of some ‘unbelievable results’ presented in the paper ‘On Some Contradictory Computations in Multi-Dimensional Mathematics’ [L.A.V. Carvalho, On some contradictory computations in multi-dimensional mathematics, Nonlinear Anal. 63 (2005) 725–734] published in Nonlinear Analysis, a journal indexed in the Science Citation Index. Among some of the unbelievable results ‘proved’ in the paper we can find statements like: (i) a rotation T θ : R 2 → R 2 , θ ≠ n π / 2 , is inconsistent with arithmetic, (ii) complex number theory is inconsistent. Besides these ‘results’ of mathematical nature, [L.A.V. Carvalho, On some contradictory computations in multi-dimensional mathematics, Nonlinear Anal. 63 (2005) 725–734] offers also a ‘proof’ that Special Relativity is inconsistent. Now, we are left with only two options (a) the results of [L.A.V. Carvalho, On some contradictory computations in multi-dimensional mathematics, Nonlinear Anal. 63 (2005) 725–734] are correct and in this case we need a revolution in Mathematics (and also in Physics) or (b) the paper is a potpourri of nonsense. We show that option (b) is the correct one. All ‘proofs’ appearing in [L.A.V. Carvalho, On some contradictory computations in multi-dimensional mathematics, Nonlinear Anal. 63 (2005) 725–734] are trivially wrong, being based on a poor knowledge of advanced calculus notions. There are many examples (some of them discussed in [A.L.T. Carvalho, W.A. Rodrigues Jr., The non sequitur mathematics and physics of the ‘new electrodynamics’ proposed by the AIAS group, Random Oper. Stoch. Equs. 9 (2001) 161–206. http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0302016; E. Capelas de Oliveira, W.A. Rodrigues Jr., Dotted and undotted algebraic spinor fields in general relativity, Int. J. Mod. Phys. D 13 (2004) 1637–1659. http://arxiv.org/abs/math-ph/0407024; W.A. Rodrigues Jr., E. Capelas de Oliveira, Clifford valued differential forms and some issues on gravitation, electromagnetism and “unified” theories, Int. J. Mod. Phys. D 13 (2004) 1879–1915. http://arxiv.org/abs/math-ph/0407025; W.A. Rodrigues Jr., Q.A.G. Souza, An ambiguous statement called ‘tetrad postulate’ and the correct field equations satisfied by the tetrad fields, Int. J. Mod. Phys. D 14 (2005) 2095–2150. http://arxiv.org/abs/math-ph/0411085; W.A. Rodrigues Jr., A comment on Emergent Gravity, http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0602111]) of completely wrong papers using non sequitur Mathematics in the Physics literature. Taking into account also that a paper like [L.A.V. Carvalho, On some contradictory computations in multi-dimensional mathematics, Nonlinear Anal. 63 (2005) 725–734] appeared in a Mathematics journal we think that it is time for editors and referees of scientific journals to become more careful in order to avoid the dissemination of nonsense.

Unbelievable Results When Predicting IQ From SAT Scores

Unbelievable Results When Predicting IQ From SAT Scores

Alternative treatments in reproductive medicine. The vexing problem of 'seemingly impeccable trials...'.

The problem of 'seemingly impeccable trials' that produce unbelievable results is approached from basic notions of the philosophy of science: facts and theory are interdependent, and 'crucial experiments' do not exist. This does not lead to an 'anything goes' attitude, but obliges us to consider arguments and counter-arguments in the spirit of the 'crossword' analogy by Susan Haack. The role of editors and readers might be different: while editors might be under some obligation to publish 'seemingly impeccable trials', readers are not obliged to accept the findings.

Iodine--champagne in a tin cup.

Dr. Ruth L. Berkelman and colleagues reported recently1 the recovery of Pseudomonas cepacia from blood cultures of 52 patients in four hospitals in New York City over a seven-month period from April through October 1980. Epidemiologic investigations indicated that the positive blood cultures were, in fact, false positives and not indicative of real bacteremia (referred to as pseudobacteremia); the source of contamination was a commerciallyavailable 10% povidone-iodine (PI) solution used both as an antiseptic and as a disinfectant. It was shown that P. cepacia gained entrance into blood culture tubes from PI left on the skin prior to venipuncture or from PI that was applied to blood culture bottle tops through which blood was inoculated by syringe into culture media. Further, P. cepacia was isolated directly from the PI solutions. This report certainly is not the first one to describe intrinsic microbial contamination of commerciallyavailable germicide solutions. However, Dr. Berkelman and her associates are to be commended for following their epidemiologic leads to unbelievable results. No microbiologist who has tested iodine solutions for bactericidal efficiency would believe that a gram-negative bacterium like P. cepacia could survive for long periods in a 10% povidone-iodine solution containing 1% available iodine -bacterial spores perhaps, but not vegetative bacteria. These investigators believe that the source of the P. cepacia most probably was a deionization water treatment system that could have introduced high levels (i.e., 10'107/ml) of bacteria into the product during manufacture. Subsequent to this investigation, there was an informal meeting during the Annual Meeting of the American Society for Microbiology in Dallas, Texas, in March 1981, attended by a number of microbiologists and epidemiologists, as well as chemists who are experts in the area of iodine and povidone-iodine chemistry. There were several informal presentations of data and a good deal of discussion. Since that time, I have had occasion to discuss the main points of this meeting with a number of microbiologists in the United States who are considered experts in the use of antiseptics and disinfectants and in environmental control. Much to my chagrin, and that of many of my colleagues, I discovered that some of our ideas and concepts concerning the chemistry and use of iodine and iodophor disinfectants were in error. Further, I have learned that there is little pertinent information in the scientific literature; where there is published information, the sources were usually journals not readily available to the environmental microbiology and infection control communities.