UK Office Research Articles

Where next for manufacturing productivity research? Propositions based on exploratory empirical investigation

Purpose The purpose of this research is to develop empirically grounded propositions for further research into UK manufacturing productivity.Design/methodology/approach Interviews were conducted with managers from strategic, tactical and operational levels from four manufacturing sectors to produce case studies. A modified strategic alignment theory framework was used to code, compare and contrast narratives on perceived productivity antecedents, definitions, compatibility with the definition from the UK Office for National Statistics, and vertical alignment issues within and across cases.Findings It was found that different key antecedents can facilitate and/or prevent strategic vertical alignment. Discussion reveals complex nuances in perceptions of manufacturing productivity and using the modified strategic alignment theory/productivity antecedent framework.Originality/value In revealing the alignment or otherwise of productivity definitions at different levels within the firm, the paper reveals nine propositions for future research including definitions, skills, metrics, performance measurement systems, people and system-centric perspectives, the value-added perspective of productivity and the role of innovation.

All-cause mortality according to COVID-19 vaccination status: An analysis of the UK office for National statistics public data

Background The mass vaccination campaign against COVID-19 has been commonly considered the best response to the global COVID-19 pandemic crisis. However, to assess its real-world overall effects, the best way can be the analysis of all-cause mortality by vaccination status. The UK is perhaps the only country which has made publicly available all-cause mortality data by vaccination status. Methods Data from April 2021 to May 2023 published by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) were retrospectively analyzed by age groups and vaccination status; the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality was calculated against the corresponding unvaccinated groups. Results We found that across all age groups, all-cause mortality SMRs increased from a certain date, dependent on the age group. Across all age groups, all-cause mortality SMRs were initially much lower than 1. However, due to their increase, by a certain date for the 18-39, 80-89 and 90+ age groups they exceeded the reference value. For the other age groups, the date at which the SMR would reach 1 can be predicted, provided the trend is maintained. Non-COVID-19 SMRs’ trends were very similar. Their initial values much lower than 1 are suggestive of significant biases in the ONS dataset, leading to underestimate the risks for the vaccinated people, as it is implausible that COVID-19 vaccines protect against non-COVID-19 deaths. Conclusions The increase over time in all-cause death SMRs in vaccinated people compared to unvaccinated, and their excess from the reference values for certain age groups, should be carefully considered to understand the underlying factors. It would be desirable for other major countries to systematically collect all-cause mortality by vaccination status and, in the meantime, a moratorium on promoting mass vaccination campaigns should be implemented.

Assessments and developments in constructing a National Health Index for policy-making, in the UK

Abstract Composite indicators are useful for summarizing and comparing changes among different communities. The UK Office for National Statistics has created an annual England Health Index (2015–2018) comprised of three main health domains—lives, places, and people—to monitor health over time and across different geographical areas and evaluate the nation’s health. We reviewed the conceptual coherence and statistical requirements, focusing on three main steps: correlation analysis at different levels, comparison of the implemented weights, and a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Based on the results, we have highlighted features that have improved the statistical requirements of the forthcoming UK Health Index.

Can 'Script Elicitation' Methods Be Used to Promote Physical Activity? An Acceptability Study.

Sustaining physical activity may require incorporating activity into everyday routines. Yet, many such routines are executed habitually, so people may not recognise physical activity opportunities. 'Script Elicitation'-a novel intervention method whereby participants detail the content and structure of their routines and are supported to plan modifications to those routines-has not yet been applied to physical activity. This mixed-methods study assessed the acceptability of Script Elicitation for increasing physical activity among office workers. Eleven UK office workers completed the one-to-one Script Elicitation procedure, describing their typical before-, during-, or after-work routines and receiving guidance on incorporating activity into those routines. One week later, they rated the acceptability of the method and completed a semi-structured interview. Physical activity was self-reported at baseline and at the one-week follow-up. Acceptability was descriptively assessed on two quantitative criteria (no clear decrease in physical activity; above-midpoint acceptability scores) and qualitatively explored via Thematic Analysis. The acceptability criteria were met, and participants reported raised awareness of routines and physical activity increases. Script Elicitation appears potentially suitable for promoting activity within everyday routines. If effectiveness is shown in a more rigorous trial, future work will need to develop script-based methods for efficient delivery at scale as a public health intervention.

Modelling Food Substitution Using the Ofcom Nutrient Profiling Model on Population Intakes from the Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition 2015.

This study aimed to model how substituting foods consumed by Canadians for alternatives with more favourable nutrient profiling (NP) scores would impact dietary intakes. The Ofcom NP system, developed to help the UK Office of Communication differentiate foods that can be advertised to children, was applied to foods consumed by Canadians aged 2 years and older in the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) (n = 19,447). Foods were substituted for similar options from the Euromonitor branded food composition database (Scenario 1) or from the primarily aggregated food profiles in the CCHS survey food composition database (Scenario 2) with either the most favourable (optimistic; 1A and 2A) or a more favourable Ofcom score (realistic; 1B and 2B). Mean intakes of Ofcom scores, calories, saturated fat, sugars, and sodium from these scenarios were compared to baseline. Only 2.9% of foods consumed had a similar Euromonitor option with a lower Ofcom score. Scenarios 1A, 1B, and 2A had lower Ofcom scores, calorie, sodium, saturated fat, and sugar intakes compared to baseline. Scenario 2B had lower levels of all outcome measures, except for an increase in calories compared to baseline. Selection of foods with more favourable NP scores has the potential to decrease the Canadian intake of nutrients of concern.

Does Energy Performance Rating Affect Office Rents? A Study of the UK Office Market

Environmental concerns and the rise in energy costs have heightened the focus on reducing CO2 emissions within the built environment. By concentrating on the office market in the UK, where a significant portion of a service-based economy operates, progress towards achieving emission reduction goals could be accelerated. Nevertheless, the speed at which this sector can enhance its environmental impact and whether individuals are willing to invest in energy-efficient measures and new energy-efficient buildings has remained uncertain. This paper investigates the influence of varying Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings on the rental rates of office buildings in the UK, drawing on an extensive dataset spanning the years of 2011–2021. Our research seeks to determine whether there exists a willingness to pay for more energy-efficient office spaces by assessing whether there is a rental premium associated with office building with higher EPC ratings. Furthermore, we examine whether buildings failing to meet minimum energy efficiency standard (defined as EPC ratings of F and G) experience rental discounts. Our findings, which take into account heteroscedasticity and various disaggregations within the office market, consistently reveal a willingness to pay for energy-efficient office spaces.

Utilization of social franchising in family planning services: a Pakistan perspective.

Pakistan's private sector caters to around 65% of family planning users. Private sector family planning was promoted in the Delivering Accelerated Family Planning in Pakistan (DAFPAK) program by UK's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) in 2019. We use data from DAFPAK to analyze the clientele and products distributed by two major NGOs, Marie Stopes Society (MSS) and DKT Pakistan, that support private providers in Pakistan. We also examined the effect of COVID-19 on client visits and contraceptives uptake at private facilities in Pakistan. DAFPAK used field validation surveys to analyze the volume of clients and products of 639 private facilities across three provinces (Punjab, KPK and Balochistan) of Pakistan. The data was collected in two phases (February 2020 and 2021) using multi-stage cluster sampling at 95% confidence level. Using a generalized negative binomial regression, facility-level characteristics and impact of COVID-19 was analyzed with the volume of clients and products given out at 95% confidence interval alongside descriptive analysis. DKT facilities covered 53% of the sample while MSS covered 47%, with 72% facilities in the rural areas. Average facility existence duration is 87 months (7.25 years). While the average experience of the facility staff is 52 months (4.33 years). MSS is serving more clients as compared to DKT during both phase 1 (IRR: 3.15; 95% CI: 2.74, 3.61) and phase 2 (IRR: 2.11; 95% CI: 1.79, 2.49). Similarly, MSS had a greater volume of products given out in both phases 1 (IRR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.51, 2.38) and phase 2 (IRR: 2.57; 95% CI: 2.09, 3.14). In both phases, client visits and product distribution decreased when client privacy is invaded (IRR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.82 - phase 1) and (IRR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.97 - phase 2). Lastly, during COVID-19, products distribution decreased by a factor of 0.84 (IRR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.97) but client visits remain unaffected. Overall, clientele is low for all facilities. At a facility, privacy is a determinant of client visits and products given out per visit. Transiently, during COVID-19, client volumes decreased, with a shift from oral pills to condoms and emergency contraceptive pills.

Changing risk factors for developing SARS-CoV-2 infection from Delta to Omicron.

One of the few studies to estimate infection risk with SARS-CoV-2 in the general population was the UK Office of National Statistics Infection Survey. This survey provided data that allowed us to describe and interpret apparent risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in a period when variants and COVID-19 controls experienced large changes. The ONS published estimates of likelihood of individuals testing positive in two week monitoring periods between 21st November 2021 and 7th May 2022, relating this positivity to social and behavioural factors. We applied meta-regression to these estimates of likelihood of testing positive to determine whether the monitored potential risk factors remained constant during the pandemic. Some risk factors had consistent relationship with risk of infection (always protective or always linked to higher risk, throughout monitoring period). Other risk factors had variable relationship with risk of infection, with changes seeming to especially correlate with the emergence of Omicron BA.2 dominance. These variable factors were mask-wearing habits, history of foreign travel, household size, working status (retired or not) and contact with children or persons age over 70. Relevance of some risk factors to likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 may relate to reinfection risk, variant infectiousness and status of social distancing regulations.

Increased mortality in acromegaly is due to vascular and respiratory disease and is normalised by control of GH levels-A retrospective analysis from the UK Acromegaly Register 1970-2016.

Epidemiological studies involving patients with acromegaly have yielded conflicting results regarding cancer incidence and causes of mortality in relation to control of growth hormone (GH) excess. The objective of this retrospective cohort study is to clarify these questions and identify goals for treatment and monitoring patients. We studied 1845 subjects from the UK Acromegaly Register (1970-2016), obtaining cancer standardised incidence rates (SIR) and all causes standardised mortality rates (SMR) from UK Office for National Statistics, to determine the relationship between causes of mortality-age at diagnosis, duration of disease, post-treatment and mean GH levels. We found an increased incidence of all cancers (SIR, 1.38; 95% CI: 1.06-1.33, p < .001), but no increase in incidence of female breast, thyroid, colon cancer or any measure of cancer mortality. All-cause mortality rates were increased (SMR, 1.35; 95% CI: 1.24-1.46, p < .001), as were those due to vascular and respiratory diseases. All-cause, all cancer and cardiovascular deaths were highest in the first 5 years following diagnosis. We found a positive association between post-treatment and mean treatment GH levels and all-cause mortality (p < .001 and p < .001), which normalised with posttreatment GH levels of <1.0 µg/L or meantreatment GH levels of <2.5 µg/L. Acromegaly is associated with increased incidence of all cancers but not thyroid or colon cancer and no increase in cancer mortality. Excess mortality is due to vascular and respiratory disease. The risk is highest in the first 5 years following diagnosis and is mitigated by normalising GH levels.

Racial Capitalism and Entrepreneurship: An Intersectional Feminist Labour Market Perspective on UK Self-Employment

This article explains entrepreneurial activity patterns in the United Kingdom labour market using theories of racial capitalism and intersectional feminism. Using UK Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey data 2018–2019 and employing probit modelling techniques on employment modes, self-employment types and work arrangements among differing groups, we investigate inequality in self-employment within and between socio-structural groupings of race, class and gender. We find that those belonging to non-dominant gender, race and socio-economic class groupings experience an intersecting set of entrepreneurial penalties, enhancing understanding of the ways multiple social hierarchies interact in self-employment patterns. This robust quantitative evidence challenges contemporary debates, policy and practice regarding the potential for entrepreneurship to offer viable income generation opportunities by those on the socio-economic margins.

Enhancing public health response: a framework for topics and sentiment analysis of COVID-19 in the UK using Twitter and the embedded topic model.

To protect citizens during the COVID-19 pandemic unprecedented public health restrictions were imposed on everyday life in the UK and around the world. In emergencies like COVID-19, it is crucial for policymakers to be able to gauge the public response and sentiment to such measures in almost real-time and establish best practices for the use of social media for emergency response. In this study, we explored Twitter as a data source for assessing public reaction to the pandemic. We conducted an analysis of sentiment by topic using 25 million UK tweets, collected from 26th May 2020 to 8th March 2021. We combined an innovative combination of sentiment analysis via a recurrent neural network and topic clustering through an embedded topic model. The results demonstrated interpretable per-topic sentiment signals across time and geography in the UK that could be tied to specific public health and policy events during the pandemic. Unique to this investigation is the juxtaposition of derived sentiment trends against behavioral surveys conducted by the UK Office for National Statistics, providing a robust gauge of the public mood concurrent with policy announcements. While much of the existing research focused on specific questions or new techniques, we developed a comprehensive framework for the assessment of public response by policymakers for COVID-19 and generalizable for future emergencies. The emergent methodology not only elucidates the public's stance on COVID-19 policies but also establishes a generalizable framework for public policymakers to monitor and assess the buy-in and acceptance of their policies almost in real-time. Further, the proposed approach is generalizable as a tool for policymakers and could be applied to further subjects of political and public interest.

KCL TEST: an open-source inspired asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance programme in an academic institution.

Rapid and accessible testing was paramount in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our university established KCL TEST: a SARS-CoV-2 asymptomatic testing programme that enabled sensitive and accessible PCR testing of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in saliva. Here, we describe our learnings and provide our blueprint for launching diagnostic laboratories, particularly in low-resource settings. Between December 2020 and July 2022, we performed 158277 PCRs for our staff, students, and their household contacts, free of charge. Our average turnaround time was 16 h and 37 min from user registration to result delivery. KCL TEST combined open-source automation and in-house non-commercial reagents, which allows for rapid implementation and repurposing. Importantly, our data parallel those of the UK Office for National Statistics, though we detected a lower positive rate and virtually no delta wave. Our observations strongly support regular asymptomatic community testing as an important measure for decreasing outbreaks and providing safe working spaces. Universities can therefore provide agile, resilient, and accurate testing that reflects the infection rate and trend of the general population. Our findings call for the early integration of academic institutions in pandemic preparedness, with capabilities to rapidly deploy highly skilled staff, as well as develop, test, and accommodate efficient low-cost pipelines.

Association between hours of work and subjective well-being. How do physicians compare to lawyers and accountants?

Analyses of physician well-being typically rely on small and unrepresentative samples. In April 2011, the UK Office for National Statistics incorporated subjective well-being metrics (SWB) into the Annual Population Survey (APS), a well-established survey. This survey includes variables from the labor market, making APS an ideal source for measuring the association between work hours and SWB metrics and comparing among different professionals. Using APS data from 2011/12 to 2014/15, this study examined the association between SWB levels and work hours using multiple linear models for physicians (primary care physicians and hospital doctors), lawyers, and accountants. Of the 11,810 observations, physicians were more satisfied, happier, and less anxious; females were more stressed (10.7%); and age was negatively associated with happiness and satisfaction. Incorporating information on preferences to work more hours (underemployment) did not affect physicians’ but worsened the well-being of other professionals (lawyers and accountants). Surveyed physicians were less anxious, happier, and more satisfied than lawyers or accountants before Covid. Although the total work hours did not alter the SWB metrics, overtime hours for other professionals did. Increasing the working hours of underemployed physicians (with appropriate compensation) could be a relatively inexpensive solution to tackle the shortage of health workers in the short run.

Potential contribution of vaccination uptake to occupational differences in risk of SARS-CoV-2: analysis of the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey

ObjectivesTo assess variation in vaccination uptake across occupational groups as a potential explanation for variation in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.DesignWe analysed data from the UK Office of National Statistics COVID-19...

Mortality from leading cancers in districts of England from 2002 to 2019: a population-based, spatiotemporal study

Cancers are the leading cause of death in England. We aimed to estimate trends in mortality from leading cancers from 2002 to 2019 for the 314 districts in England. We did a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of vital registration data from the UK Office for National Statistics using data on all deaths from the ten leading cancers in England from 2002 to 2019. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain robust estimates of age-specific and cause-specific death rates. We used life table methods to calculate the primary outcome, the unconditional probability of dying between birth and age 80 years by sex, cancer cause of death, local district, and year. We reported Spearman rank correlations between the probability of dying from a cancer and district-level poverty in 2019. In 2019, the probability of dying from a cancer before age 80 years ranged from 0·10 (95% credible interval [CrI] 0·10-0·11) to 0·17 (0·16-0·18) for women and from 0·12 (0·12-0·13) to 0·22 (0·21-0·23) for men. Variation in the probability of dying was largest for lung cancer among women, being 3·7 times (95% CrI 3·2-4·4) higher in the district with the highest probability than in the district with the lowest probability; and for stomach cancer for men, being 3·2 times (2·6-4·1) higher in the district with the highest probability than in the one with the lowest probability. The variation in the probability of dying was smallest across districts for lymphoma and multiple myeloma (95% CrI 1·2 times [1·1-1·4] higher in the district with the highest probability than the lowest probability for women and 1·2 times [1·0-1·4] for men), and leukaemia (1·1 times [1·0-1·4] for women and 1·2 times [1·0-1·5] for men). The Spearman rank correlation between probability of dying from a cancer and district poverty was 0·74 (95% CrI 0·72-0·76) for women and 0·79 (0·78-0·81) for men. From 2002 to 2019, the overall probability of dying from a cancer declined in all districts: the reductions ranged from 6·6% (95% CrI 0·3-13·1) to 30·1% (25·6-34·5) for women and from 12·8% (7·1-18·8) to 36·7% (32·2-41·2) for men. However, there were increases in mortality for liver cancer among men, lung cancer and corpus uteri cancer among women, and pancreatic cancer in both sexes in some or all districts with posterior probability greater than 0·80. Cancers with modifiable risk factors and potential for screening for precancerous lesions had heterogeneous trends and the greatest geographical inequality. To reduce these inequalities, factors affecting both incidence and survival need to be addressed at the local level. Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London, UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute of Health Research.

Resource utilisation and outcomes of people with heart failure in England: a descriptive analysis of linked primary and secondary care data – the PULSE study

BackgroundHeart failure (HF) is associated with high levels of resource use and mortality, but prior UK studies have not compared outcomes by HF subtype (HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF)...

Climate distress, climate-sensitive risk factors, and mental health among Tanzanian youth: a cross-sectional study

Climate change threatens youth mental health through multiple mechanisms, yet empirical studies typically focus on single pathways. We explored feelings of distress over climate change among Tanzanian youth, considering associations with climate change awareness and climate-sensitive risk factors, and assessed how these factors relate to mental health. Tanzanian youth (aged 18-23 years) from a cluster randomised controlled trial in Mbeya and Iringa regions of Tanzania were interviewed between Jan 25, and March 3, 2021, and included in this cross-sectional study. A threshold of at least 10 on the ten-item Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale was used to classify symptom severity indicative of depression. Regardless of climate change awareness, respondents were asked about their feelings of distress on climate change using inclusive language (changing weather patterns or changing seasons). We estimated rate differences in climate change distress (slight or moderate or extreme vs none) by youth characteristics, extent of climate awareness, and climate-sensitive livelihoods (eg, agriculture, tending livestock) and climate-sensitive living conditions (eg, food or water insecurity), using generalised linear models. We compared depression prevalence by extent of climate change distress and climate-sensitive living conditions. Among 2053 youth (1123 [55%] were male and 930 [45%] were female) included in this analysis, 946 (46%) had reported any distress about climate change. Distress was higher among female, more educated, more religious, older youth, and those working in extreme temperatures. Adjusting for climate awareness-a factor strongly associated with climate distress-helped to explain some of these associations. Depression was 23 percentage points (95% CI 17-28) higher among youth who had severe water insecurity than those who did not. Similarly, youth who had severe food insecurity had 23 percentage points higher depression (95% CI 17-28) compared with those who did not. Those reporting climate change distress also had worse mental health-extremely distressed youth had 18 percentage points (95% CI 6-30) higher depression than those reporting none. Living in conditions worsened by climate change and feeling distressed over climate change have mental health implications among young people from low-resource settings, indicating that climate change can impact youth mental health through multiple pathways. Erasmus Trustfonds, Centre for Global Health Inequalities Research, UK's Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office, Oak Foundation, UNICEF, UK's Department of International Development, the Swedish Development Cooperation Agency, Irish Aid.

The health burden of air pollution in the UK: a modelling study using updated exposure-risk associations

BackgroundLong-term exposure to ambient air pollution, in particular fine particles or PM2·5, is a leading global disease burden. PM2·5 in the UK, dominated by agricultural emissions of ammonia (NH3), has been estimated to be responsible for 29 000–34 000 adult early deaths a year. These estimates use models that relate exposure to health risk that predate cohort studies that have identified a supralinear relationship between exposure and risk at relatively low PM2·5 concentrations typical of the UK (5–12 mg m−3). Here we used this new knowledge to estimate adult premature mortality in the UK in 2019. MethodsFor this modelling study, we used the GEOS-Chem model nested over the UK to simulate ambient PM2·5 concentrations, UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) health data provided by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), and a hybrid health-risk assessment model. The hybrid model fuses a well established linear relationship between PM2·5 and risk for PM2·5 exceeding 10 mg m−3 with a supralinear curve at lower concentrations that is constrained with cohort studies conducted in Canada and confirmed with similar relationships from cohort studies in the USA and Europe. FindingsWe estimated that adult premature mortality attributable to exposure to ambient PM2·5 in the UK totalled 48 625 deaths in 2019 (95% CI 45 118–52 595); 15 000–20 000 more deaths than those estimated using outdated health-risk assessment models. Older people (aged 65 years or older) account for most UK deaths (86%). All adult premature mortality (in people aged 25 years and older) in Greater London (4861, 95% CI 4549–5247) exceeded that in Scotland (3673, 3214–4073), Wales (2462, 2270–2660), and Northern Ireland (1052, 934–1156). InterpretationAccording to our findings, PM2·5 is more hazardous to UK adults than previously reported, but a supralinear exposure-response curve also suggests that there are substantial public health gains in targeting dominant source contributors to PM2·5, in particular the unregulated agricultural sector. FundingDepartment for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).

CO-MOVEMENT CLUSTERING: A NOVEL APPROACH FOR PREDICTING INFLATION IN THE FOOD AND BEVERAGE INDUSTRY

In the realm of food and beverage businesses, inflation poses a significant hurdle as it affects pricing, profitability, and consumer’s purchasing power, setting it apart from other industries. This study proposes a novel approach; co-movement clustering, to predict which items will be inflated together according to historical time-series data. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the proposed approach based on real-world data obtained from the UK Office for National Statistics. The predicted results of the proposed approach were compared against four classical methods (correlation, Euclidean distance, Cosine Similarity, and DTW). According to our experimental results, the accuracy of the proposed approach outperforms the above-mentioned classical methods. Moreover, the accuracy of the proposed approach is higher when an additional filter is applied. Our approach aids hospitality operators in accurately predicting food and beverage inflation, enabling the development of effective strategies to navigate the current challenging business environment in hospitality management. The lack of previous work has explored how time series clustering can be applied to support inflation prediction. This study opens a new research paradigm to the related field and this study can serve as a useful reference for future research in this emerging area. In addition, this study work contributes to the data analytics research stream in hospitality management literature.

Automation in public sector jobs and services: a framework to analyze public digital transformation’s impact in a data-constrained environment

PurposeThis study aims to estimate the value of the impact from digital transformation (DX) focusing on its automation effect, looking at the time and cost savings coming from the substitution effect with an adoption of digital technologies. For example, cloud and artificial intelligence technologies such as ChatGPT have the potential to change ways of working, substituting and replacing several of the tasks that are currently carried out by public administration (PA) employees and labor processes underpinning PA services.Design/methodology/approachThe paper outlines a new framework to estimate the potential impact of DX on the public sector. The authors apply this framework to estimate the value of the impact of DX on the Italian PA, defining the latter by the collection of the value of its labor (i.e. PA workforce salaries) and by the collection of the value of its outputs (i.e. public services’ costs).FindingsThis study ultimately maps out the magnitude and trends of how likely the PA occupations and services could be substituted in a wider process of DX. To do this, the authors apply their framework to the Italian PA, and they triangulate secondary data collection, from official accounts of the Italian Ministry of Economics and the National Statistical Institute, with methodological antecedents from the UK Office for National Statistics and experts’ insights. Results provide a snapshot on the type and magnitude of PA jobs and services projected to be affected by automation over the next 10 years.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper provides for the first time an approach to estimate the value of the impact of DX on the public sector in a data-constrained environment – or in the lack of the required primary data. Once applied to the Italian PA, this approach provides a granular map of the automatability of each of the PA occupations and of the PA services. Finally, this paper mentions preliminary insights on potential challenges related to equity in public sector jobs and implications on recruitment processes.