UK HIV Drug Resistance Database Research Articles

Modeling Drug Resistance Emergence and Transmission in HIV-1 in the UK.

A deeper understanding of HIV-1 transmission and drug resistance mechanisms can lead to improvements in current treatment policies. However, the rates at which HIV-1 drug resistance mutations (DRMs) are acquired and which transmitted DRMs persist are multi-factorial and vary considerably between different mutations. We develop a method for the estimation of drug resistance acquisition and transmission patterns. The method uses maximum likelihood ancestral character reconstruction informed by treatment roll-out dates and allows for the analysis of very large datasets. We apply our method to transmission trees reconstructed on the data obtained from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database to make predictions for known DRMs. Our results show important differences between DRMs, in particular between polymorphic and non-polymorphic DRMs and between the B and C subtypes. Our estimates of reversion times, based on a very large number of sequences, are compatible but more accurate than those already available in the literature, with narrower confidence intervals. We consistently find that large resistance clusters are associated with polymorphic DRMs and DRMs with long loss times, which require special surveillance. As in other high-income countries (e.g., Switzerland), the prevalence of sequences with DRMs is decreasing, but among these, the fraction of transmitted resistance is clearly increasing compared to the fraction of acquired resistance mutations. All this indicates that efforts to monitor these mutations and the emergence of resistance clusters in the population must be maintained in the long term.

Cross-Continental Dispersal of Major HIV-1 CRF01_AE Clusters in China.

Since the 1990s, several distinct clusters of human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) CRF01_AE related to a large epidemic in China have been identified, but it is yet poorly understood whether its transmission has dispersed globally. We aimed to characterize and quantify the genetic relationship of HIV-1 CRF01_AEs circulating in China and other countries. Using representative sequences of Chinese clusters as queries, all relevant CRF01_AE pol sequences in two large databases (the Los Alamos HIV sequence database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database) were selected with the online basic local alignment search (BLAST) tool. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses were then carried out to characterize possible linkage of CRF01_AE strains between China and the rest of the world. We identified that 269 strains isolated in other parts of the world were associated with five major Chinese CRF01_AE clusters. 80.7% were located within CN.01AE.HST/IDU-2, most of which were born in Southeast Asia. 17.8% were clustered with CN.01AE.MSM-4 and -5. Two distinct sub-clusters associated with Chinese men who have sex with men (MSM) emerged in HK-United Kingdom and Japan after 2000. Our analysis suggests that HIV-1 CRF01_AE strains related to viral transmission in China were initially brought to the United Kingdom or other countries during the 1990s by Asian immigrants or returning international tourists from Southeast Asia, and then after having circulated among MSM in China for several years, these Chinese strains dispersed outside again, possibly through MSM network. This study provided evidence of regional and global dispersal of Chinese CRF01_AE strains. It would also help understand the global landscape of HIV epidemic associated with CRF01_AE transmission and highlight the need for further international collaborative study in this field.

Associations between baseline characteristics, CD4 cell count response and virological failure on first-line efavirenz + tenofovir + emtricitabine for HIV

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to investigate associations between baseline characteristics and CD4 cell count response on first-line antiretroviral therapy and risk of virological failure (VF) with or without drug resistance. MethodsWe conducted an analysis of UK Collaborative HIV Cohort data linked to the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Inclusion criteria were viral sequence showing no resistance prior to initiation of first-line efavirenz + tenofovir disoproxil fumarate + emtricitabine and virological suppression within 6 months. Outcomes of VF (≥200 copies/mL) with or without drug resistance were assessed using a competing risks approach fitted jointly with a model for CD4 cell count recovery. Hazard ratios for each VF outcome were estimated for baseline CD4 cell count and viral load and characteristics of CD4 cell count response using latent variables on a standard normal scale. ResultsA total of 3640 people were included with 338 VF events; corresponding viral sequences were available in 134 with ≥1 resistance mutation in 36. VF with resistance was associated with lower baseline CD4 (0.30, 0.09–0.62), lower CD4 recovery (0.04, 0.00–0.17) and higher CD4 variability (4.40, 1.22–12.68). A different pattern of associations was observed for VF without resistance, but the strength of these results was less consistent across sensitivity analyses. Cumulative incidence of VF with resistance was estimated to be >2% at 3 years for baseline CD4 ≥350 cells/μL. ConclusionLower baseline CD4 cell count and suboptimal CD4 recovery are associated with VF with drug resistance. People with low CD4 cell count before ART or with suboptimal CD4 recovery on treatment should be a priority for regimens with high genetic barrier to resistance.

Determining the Origins of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Drug-resistant Minority Variants in People Who Are Recently Infected Using Phylogenetic Reconstruction.

BackgroundDrug-resistant minority variants (DRMinVs) detected in patients who recently acquired human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) can be transmitted, generated de novo through virus replication, or technical errors. The first form is likely to persist and result in treatment failure, while the latter two could be stochastic and transient.MethodsUltradeep sequencing of plasma samples from 835 individuals with recent HIV-1 infection in the United Kingdom was performed to detect DRMinVs at a mutation frequency between 2% and 20%. Sequence alignments including >110 000 HIV-1 partial pol consensus sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK-HDRD), linked to epidemiological and clinical data from the HIV and AIDS Reporting System, were used for transmission cluster analysis. Transmission clusters were identified using Cluster Picker with a clade support of >90% and maximum genetic distances of 4.5% or 1.5%, the latter to limit detection to likely direct transmission events.ResultsDrug-resistant majority variants (DRMajVs) were detected in 66 (7.9%) and DRMinVs in 84 (10.1%) of the recently infected individuals. High levels of clustering to sequences in UK-HDRD were observed for both DRMajV (n = 48; 72.7%) and DRMinV (n = 63; 75.0%) sequences. Of these, 43 (65.2%) with DRMajVs were in a transmission cluster with sequences that harbored the same DR mutation compared to only 3 (3.6%) sequences with DRMinVs (P < .00001, Fisher exact test). Evidence of likely direct transmission of DRMajVs was observed for 25/66 (37.9%), whereas none were observed for the DRMinVs (P < .00001).ConclusionsUsing a densely sampled HIV-infected population, we show no evidence of DRMinV transmission among recently infected individuals.

Non-disclosed men who have sex with men in UK HIV transmission networks: phylogenetic analysis of surveillance data

Patients who do not disclose their sexuality, including men who do not disclose same-sex behaviour, are difficult to characterise through traditional epidemiological approaches such as interviews. Using a recently developed method to detect large networks of viral sequences from time-resolved trees, we localised non-disclosed men who have sex with men (MSM) in UK transmission networks, gaining crucial insight into the behaviour of this group. For this phylogenetic analysis, we obtained HIV pol sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UKRDB), a central repository for resistance tests done as part of routine clinical care throughout the UK. Sequence data are linked to demographic and clinical data held by the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study and the national HIV/AIDS reporting system database. Initially, we reconstructed maximum likelihood phylogenies from these sequences, then sequences were selected for time-resolved analysis in BEAST if they were clustered with at least one other sequence at a genetic distance of 4·5% or less with support of at least 90%. We used time-resolved phylogenies to create networks by linking together nodes if sequences shared a common ancestor within the previous 5 years. We identified potential non-disclosed MSM (pnMSM), defined as self-reported heterosexual men who clustered only with men. We measured the network position of pnMSM, including betweenness (a measure of connectedness and importance) and assortativity (the propensity for nodes sharing attributes to link). 14 405 individuals were in the network, including 8452 MSM, 1743 heterosexual women and 1341 heterosexual men. 249 pnMSM were identified (18·6% of all clustered heterosexual men) in the network. pnMSM were more likely to be black African (p<0·0001), less likely to be infected with subtype B (p=0·006), and were slightly older (p=0·002) than the MSM they clustered with. Mean betweenness centrality was lower for pnMSM than for MSM (1·31, 95% CI 0·48-2·15 in pnMSM vs 2·24, 0·98-3·51 in MSM; p=0·002), indicating that pnMSM were in peripheral positions in MSM clusters. Assortativity by risk group was higher than expected (0·037 vs -0·037, p=0·01) signifying that pnMSM were linked to each other. We found that self-reported heterosexual men were more likely to link MSM and heterosexual women than heterosexual women were to link MSM and heterosexual men (Fisher's exact test p=0·0004; OR 2·24) but the number of such transmission chains was small (only 54 in total vs 32 in women). pnMSM are a subgroup distinct from both MSM and from heterosexual men. They are more likely to choose sexual partners who are also pnMSM and might exhibit lower-risk sexual behaviour than MSM (eg, choosing low-risk partners or consistently using condoms). Heterosexual men are the group most likely to be diagnosed with late-stage disease (ie, low CD4 counts) and non-disclosed MSM might put female partners at higher risk than heterosexual men because non-disclosed MSM have male partners. Hence, pnMSM require specific consideration to ensure they are included in public health interventions. National Institutes of Health.

Risk factors and outcomes for the Q151M and T69 insertion HIV-1 resistance mutations in historic UK data

BackgroundThe prevalence of HIV-1 resistance to antiretroviral therapies (ART) has declined in high-income countries over recent years, but drug resistance remains a substantial concern in many low and middle-income countries. The Q151M and T69 insertion (T69i) resistance mutations in the viral reverse transcriptase gene can reduce susceptibility to all nucleoside/tide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors, motivating the present study to investigate the risk factors and outcomes associated with these mutations.MethodsWe considered all data in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database for blood samples obtained in the period 1997–2014. Where available, treatment history and patient outcomes were obtained through linkage to the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study. A matched case–control approach was used to assess risk factors associated with the appearance of each of the mutations in ART-experienced patients, and survival analysis was used to investigate factors associated with viral suppression. A further analysis using matched controls was performed to investigate the impact of each mutation on survival.ResultsA total of 180 patients with Q151M mutation and 85 with T69i mutation were identified, almost entirely from before 2006. Occurrence of both the Q151M and T69i mutations was strongly associated with cumulative period of virological failure while on ART, and for Q151M there was a particular positive association with use of stavudine and negative association with use of boosted-protease inhibitors. Subsequent viral suppression was negatively associated with viral load at sequencing for both mutations, and for Q151M we found a negative association with didanosine use but a positive association with boosted-protease inhibitor use. The results obtained in these analyses were also consistent with potentially large associations with other drugs. Analyses were inconclusive regarding associations between the mutations and mortality, but mortality was high for patients with low CD4 at detection.ConclusionsThe Q151M and T69i resistance mutations are now very rare in the UK. Our results suggest that good outcomes are possible for people with these mutations. However, in this historic sample, viral load and CD4 at detection were important factors in determining prognosis.

A phylotype-based analysis highlights the role of drug-naive HIV-positive individuals in the transmission of antiretroviral resistance in the UK.

Antiretroviral-naive HIV-positive individuals contribute to the transmission of drug-resistant viruses, compromising first-line therapy. Using phylogenetic inference, we quantified the proportion of transmitted drug-resistance originating from a treatment-naive source. Using a novel phylotype-based approach, 24 550 HIV-1 subtype B partial pol gene sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance database were analysed. Ongoing transmission of drug resistance amongst HIV-positive individuals was identified as phylotypes of at least three sequences with at least one shared drug resistance mutation, a maximum intra-clade genetic distance of 4.0% and a basal branch support at least 90%. The time of persistence of the transmission chains was estimated using a fast least-squares molecular clock inference approach. Around 70% of transmitted drug-resistance had a treatment-naive source. The most commonly transmitted mutations were L90M in the protease gene and K103N, T215D and T215S in reverse transcriptase. Reversion to wild type occurred at a low frequency and drug-independent reservoirs of resistance have persisted for up to 13 years. These results illustrate the impact of viral fitness on the establishment of resistance reservoirs and support the notion that earlier diagnoses and treatment of HIV infections are warranted for counteracting the spread of antiretroviral resistance. Phylotype-based phylogenetic inference is an attractive approach for the routine surveillance of transmitted drug resistance in HIV as well as in other pathogens for which genotypic resistance data are available.

Protease mutations emerging on darunavir in protease inhibitor-naïve and experienced patients in the UK.

IntroductionDarunavir (DRV) is a preferred agent in treatment guidelines for ART-naïve and experienced patients [1]. It is considered to have a high genetic barrier to resistance and 11 resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) are recognized by IAS-USA [2]. These have largely been identified by analyses examining the correlation between baseline genotype and virological response [3]. However, there is little information on RAMs that are directly selected by DRV, outside of short-term clinical trials. We aimed to identify emerging mutations by comparing the genotypes of individuals before and after DRV exposure.Materials and MethodsThe UK HIV Drug Resistance Database was used to identify patients aged over 16 who had received at least 30 days of a DRV-containing regimen. Patients were included if they had a “baseline” resistance test, prior to DRV exposure, and a “repeat” test, either on DRV or within 30 days of stopping this agent. To avoid attributing the effects of other PIs on emerging RAMs to DRV, patients were excluded if they had received another PI for greater than 90 days between the baseline genotype and the start of DRV. The baseline and repeat tests were compared to determine the nature of mutations stratified by PI history.ResultsA total of 5623 patients had DRV, of whom 306 met the inclusion criteria. A total of 228 (74.5%) were male, median age at the start of DRV was 42 years (IQR 37–47), and half had subtype B infection. The mode of transmission was homosexual contact for 50%, heterosexual for 38%, and 3% were injection drug users. The median CD4 count at the start of DRV was 257 cells/mm3 (IQR 94–453). A total of 149 patients (49%) had a history of PI use prior to DRV, and 157 (51%) were PI-naïve. The most common previous PIs were lopinavir, atazanavir, and saquinavir. Baseline DRV RAMs were present in 1 (0.6%) PI-naïve and 20 (13.4%) PI-experienced patients. Mutations emerged under DRV pressure in a further 3 (1.9%) PI-naïve patients, and in 7 (4.7%) PI-experienced patients, 5 of whom had other DRV RAMs present at baseline (Table 1). The median time from the start of DRV to the repeat test was 196 days for PI-naïve patients and 296 days for PI-experienced.ConclusionsPI-experienced patients had a greater prevalence of DRV RAMs at baseline than PI-naïve individuals, probably due to the fact that some DRV RAMs can be selected by other PIs. This group also accumulated more RAMs during DRV exposure, possibly because previous PIs had caused minority variants which then emerged on DRV therapy. Overall, only 10 patients accumulated 16 RAMs, which supports the perception that DRV has a high genetic barrier to resistance. Repeat genotyping in the case of virological failure on DRV may still be warranted to detect emerging resistance and guide management decisions.

Intercontinental dispersal of HIV-1 subtype B associated with transmission among men who have sex with men in Japan.

Transmission clusters of HIV-1 subtype B uniquely associated with the epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in East Asia have recently been identified. Using the Los Alamos HIV sequence database and the UK HIV drug resistance database, we explored possible links between HIV MSM epidemics in East Asia and the rest of the world by using phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses. We found that JP.MSM.B-1, a subtype B MSM variant that accounts for approximately one-third of the infections among Japanese MSM, was detected worldwide, in the United Kingdom (n=13), mainland China (n=3), the United States, Germany, Canada, and Taiwan (n=1 each). Interestingly, 10 United Kingdom samples plus two from Germany and the United States formed a distinct monophyletic subgroup within JP.MSM.B-1. The estimated divergence times of JP.MSM.B-1 and the latter subgroup were ∼1989 and ∼1999, respectively. These dates suggest that JP.MSM.B-1 was circulating for many years in Japan among MSM before disseminating to other countries, most likely through global MSM networks. A significant number of other Asian MSM HIV lineages were also detected in the UK HIV drug resistance database. Our study provides insight into the regional and global dispersal of Asian MSM HIV lineages. Further study of these strains is warranted to elucidate viral migration and the interrelationship of HIV epidemics on a global scale. We previously identified several transmission clusters of HIV-1 subtype B uniquely associated with the epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in East Asia. Using the Los Alamos HIV sequence database and the UK HIV drug resistance database, we explored the possible interplay of HIV MSM epidemics in the different geographic regions and found previously unrecognized interrelationships among the HIV-1 epidemics in East Asia, the United Kingdom, and the rest of the world. Our study provides insight into the regional and global dispersal of Asian MSM HIV lineages and highlights the importance of strengthening HIV monitoring efforts and the need for implementing effective control measures to reduce HIV transmission on a global scale.

7.0 Managing virological failure

7.0 Managing virological failure

The emergence of drug resistant HIV variants at virological failure of HAART combinations containing efavirenz, tenofovir and lamivudine or emtricitabine within the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort

Lamivudine (3TC) and emtricitabine (FTC) are guideline choices for combination highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). 3TC has a shorter intracellular half life than FTC and may be more likely to lead to the development of drug resistant HIV variants. In this study we analysed linked data from the observational UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) Study and UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (HDRD) to investigate the rate of development of K65R or M184V resistance mutations in patients failing on combinations containing tenofovir (TDF) and efavirenz (EFV) with either 3TC or FTC. Virological failure was defined as 1 viral load >400copies/ml. Rates were stratified by demographic variables, baseline viral load, current CD4 count, current viral load and year of starting regimen. Significant associations were identified using Poisson regression models and multivariable analyses were performed adjusting for the variables above. Logistic regression was used to determine whether there were any significant associations between type of regimen and detection of resistance mutation. 5455 patients received either (or both) 3TC, TDF and EFV or FTC, TDF and EFV contributing 6465 treatment episodes over 9962 person-years follow up. 47 of these episodes were preceded by resistance tests showing development of K65R or M184V mutation and were hence excluded. The majority of treatment episodes consisted of FTC- (n=5190) rather than 3TC- (n=1228) based regimens. 21 cases of K65R were detected over the course of follow up, giving an overall event rate of 0.21 (95% CI: 0.12-0.31)/100 person years follow up (PYFU). The overall event rate for detection of M184V was 0.38 (95% CI: 0.26-0.5)/100 PYFU. 201 patients receiving either regimen for the first time experienced virological failure. Of those receiving 3TC (n=53), 7 (13.2%), 12 (22.6%) and 15 (28.3%) developed K65R, M184V and either K65R or M184V respectively. Of those receiving FTC (n=148), 13 (8.8%), 20 (13.5%) and 26 (17.6%) developed K65R, M184V and either K65R or M184V respectively. Although patients on 3TC were more likely to develop resistance, this was not statistically significant in univariable (OR 1.85 (95% CI: 0.89-3.85, p=0.09)) or multivariable analyses (OR 1.89 (95% CI: 0.89-4.01, p=0.1)). We have not found evidence of an increased risk of development of M184V and K65R in patients exposed to 3TC.

Second-Line Protease Inhibitor-Based Antiretroviral Therapy after Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor Failure: The Effect of a Nucleoside Backbone

Virological failures on combined antiretroviral therapy still occur. Boosted protease inhibitor ( Pl/r)- based therapy is a commonly used option after non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor ( NNRTI) failure, but whether two fully active nucleoside reverse transciptase inhibitors (NRTIs) are required is unknown. We investigated the effect of an NRTI backbone in individuals receiving Pl/r after failing NNRTI-based combined antiretroviral therapy. A longitudinal analysis of the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database to identify individuals who failed first-line NNRTI and two NRTIs, and switched to Pl/r-based therapy between January 1999 and December 2008 was conducted. We investigated the effect of NRTI on suppression. In total, 470 individuals met study criteria: 19.6%, 34.5% and 46.0% started 0, 1 or ≥ 2 NRTIs, respectively. Median CD4+ T-cell count was 223 cells/mm3 and HIV-RNA was 4.3 log10 copies/ml; 246 (52.3%) underwent genotyping before switch. virological failure occurred in 10.9% and 13% after 48 and 96 weeks, respectively. In multivariable analysis, heterosexual risk group and HIV RNA were independently associated with virological failure; higher CD4+ T-cell count was protective (HR= 0.92). Number of new NRTIs or genotypic sensitivity score of backbone had no effect on treatment success rates when modelled as categorical or continuous variables. Successful treatment with a second-line Pl/r may not require two active NRTIs. If replicated in clinincal trials, these findings could guide future recommendations.

Effect of misclassification of antiretroviral treatment status on the prevalence of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance

BackgroundEstimates of the prevalence of transmitted HIV drug resistance (TDR) in a population are derived from resistance tests performed on samples from patients thought to be naïve to antiretroviral treatment (ART). Much of the debate over reliability of estimates of the prevalence of TDR has focused on whether the sample population is representative. However estimates of the prevalence of TDR will also be distorted if some ART-experienced patients are misclassified as ART-naïve.MethodsThe impact of misclassification bias on the rate of TDR was examined. We developed methods to obtain adjusted estimates of the prevalence of TDR for different misclassification rates, and conducted sensitivity analyses of trends in the prevalence of TDR over time using data from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Logistic regression was used to examine trends in the prevalence of TDR over time.ResultsThe observed rate of TDR was higher than true TDR when misclassification was present and increased as the proportion of misclassification increased. As the number of naïve patients with a resistance test relative to the number of experienced patients with a test increased, the difference between true and observed TDR decreased. The observed prevalence of TDR in the UK reached a peak of 11.3% in 2002 (odds of TDR increased by 1.10 (95% CI 1.02, 1.19, p(linear trend) = 0.02) per year 1997-2002) before decreasing to 7.0% in 2007 (odds of TDR decreased by 0.90 (95% CI 0.87, 0.94, p(linear trend) < 0.001) per year 2002-2007. Trends in adjusted TDR were altered as the misclassification rate increased; the significant downward trend between 2002-2007 was lost when the misclassification increased to over 4%.ConclusionThe effect of misclassification of ART on estimates of the prevalence of TDR may be appreciable, and depends on the number of naïve tests relative to the number of experienced tests. Researchers can examine the effect of ART misclassification on their estimates of the prevalence of TDR if such a bias is suspected.

Evaluating the extent of potential resistance to pre‐exposure prophylaxis within the UK HIV‐1‐infectious population of men who have sex with men

Recent studies have shown that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can substantially reduce the chance of acquiring HIV infection. However, PrEP efficacy has been found to be compromised in macaque studies if the challenge virus is antiretroviral therapy (ART)-resistant. Our objective was to evaluate the likelihood that a UK man who has sex with men (MSM) would be exposed to PrEP-resistant HIV in a homosexual encounter with an HIV-infectious partner. Data from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) study were linked to the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database for HIV-1-positive MSM patients seen between 2005 and 2008. Patients were categorized as undiagnosed; diagnosed but ART-naïve; ART-experienced and on treatment; and ART-experienced and on a treatment interruption. Considering current PrEP regimens, resistance to (a) tenofovir (TDF) alone, (b) TDF and emtricitabine (FTC), and (c) TDF or FTC was estimated. Patients without resistance tests had PrEP resistance imputed using bootstrapping and logistic regression models. The population-level prevalence of PrEP resistance in HIV-infectious individuals in 2008 was estimated to be 1.6, 0.9 and 4.1% for PrEP resistance definitions a, b and c, respectively. Prevalence in ART-experienced patients was highest, with negligible circulating resistance amongst ART-naïve individuals. The levels of resistance declined over the period of study. Our analysis indicates low levels of resistance to proposed PrEP drugs. The estimated PrEP resistance prevalence in UK HIV-infected MSM is towards the lower range of values used in simulation studies which have suggested that circulating PrEP drug resistance will have a negligible impact on PrEP efficacy at the population level.

Can linear regression modeling help clinicians in the interpretation of genotypic resistance data? An application to derive a lopinavir-score.

BackgroundThe question of whether a score for a specific antiretroviral (e.g. lopinavir/r in this analysis) that improves prediction of viral load response given by existing expert-based interpretation systems (IS) could be derived from analyzing the correlation between genotypic data and virological response using statistical methods remains largely unanswered.Methods and FindingsWe used the data of the patients from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study for whom genotypic data were stored in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK HDRD) to construct a training/validation dataset of treatment change episodes (TCE). We used the average square error (ASE) on a 10-fold cross-validation and on a test dataset (the EuroSIDA TCE database) to compare the performance of a newly derived lopinavir/r score with that of the 3 most widely used expert-based interpretation rules (ANRS, HIVDB and Rega). Our analysis identified mutations V82A, I54V, K20I and I62V, which were associated with reduced viral response and mutations I15V and V91S which determined lopinavir/r hypersensitivity. All models performed equally well (ASE on test ranging between 1.1 and 1.3, p = 0.34).ConclusionsWe fully explored the potential of linear regression to construct a simple predictive model for lopinavir/r-based TCE. Although, the performance of our proposed score was similar to that of already existing IS, previously unrecognized lopinavir/r-associated mutations were identified. The analysis illustrates an approach of validation of expert-based IS that could be used in the future for other antiretrovirals and in other settings outside HIV research.

The prevalence of darunavir-associated mutations in HIV-1-infected children in the UK.

We examined the prevalence of ritonavir-boosted darunavir (DRV) resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) in HIV-infected children in the UK to determine the drug's potential clinical utility as a first-line or second-line protease inhibitor (PI). The prevalence of DRV RAMs, identified from IAS 2010 and Stanford, and the Stanford susceptibility score, were estimated in PI-naive and PI-experienced children in the Collaborative HIV Paediatric Study and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database 1998-2008. Associations between type/duration of PI exposure and area under the viraemia curve on PI with the number of RAMs were investigated using multivariate Poisson regression. A total of 17/417 (4%) children with a resistance test when PI-naive had one IAS DRV RAM, and 1 had a Stanford mutation; none had multiple DRV RAMs. A total of 177 PI-experienced children had a test after a median 2.7 years (IQR 1.1-5.2) on PIs; 19 (11%) had one IAS DRV RAM, 7 (4%) had two RAMs, 1 (0.6%) had three RAMs and 1 (0.6%) had four RAMs. DRV RAMs were independently associated with increased years on a PI, a larger area under the viraemia curve since starting PIs, and any exposure to PIs other than lopinavir (all P≤0.05). Only 6 (3%) PI-experienced children had intermediate-level DRV/ritonavir resistance; none had high-level resistance. DRV resistance was negligible in PI-naive children and those with lopinavir PI exposure alone. However resistance increased with increasing time, and with higher levels of viraemia, on PIs. Once-daily DRV/ritonavir would be valuable as a second PI or an alternative first PI, particularly if coformulated with a booster in an appropriate formulation for children.

HIV type-1 drug resistance in antiretroviral treatment-naive adults infected with non-B subtype virus in the United Kingdom

There is an increasing prevalence of non-B subtype HIV type-1 (HIV-1) infections in Europe, reflecting patterns of migration. We examined the characteristics of HIV-1 drug resistance in antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naive individuals migrating to the UK. Resistance tests reported to the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database between 2001 and 2006 were included. Demographic data were obtained via linkage to national databases. Resistance was defined as ≥ 1 drug resistance mutation. Non-B HIV-1 subtype was used as a surrogate marker of infection acquired outside the UK. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between demographics and the prevalence of resistance. Overall, 196/4,291 (4.6%) samples with non-B subtype showed resistance compared with 745/6,435 (11.6%) samples for subtype B. Among non-B subtypes, the prevalence of resistance decreased over time (6.0% in 2001-2003 to 3.2% in 2006) and was independently associated with later calendar year of sampling (P=0.001). Resistance was confined mainly to one ART class (85%); non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance was more common in subtype C (47%) compared with non-B non-C subtypes (29%; P=0.02). M184V was more common in non-B subtypes (non-B 30% versus B 5%; P<0.001) and T215 variants were more common in subtype B (non-B 10% versus B 49%; P<0.001). In ART-naive individuals living in the UK, but who are likely to have acquired HIV-1 abroad, we observed a downward trend in resistance over time, which is surprising in light of ART roll-out in resource-limited settings. Reassuringly, resistance was mainly confined to one drug class; however, patterns of resistance differed by subtype, with some evidence of possible undisclosed prior therapy in non-B subtypes.

Epidemiology of non-B clade forms of HIV-1 in men who have sex with men in the UK

To describe the frequency and risk factors of non-B HIV-1 subtypes in men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK. Observational study. MSM diagnosed with HIV-1 infection from 1980-2007, with HIV genotype held in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database were identified. Protease and reverse transcriptase sequences were collected and viral clade determined using the REGA algorithm. Associations between demographic variables and subtype were analysed using logistic regression. The prevalence of non-B HIV-1 infection amongst MSM in the UK was 5.4% (437/8058). In the UK this increased with year of diagnosis from pre1996 to 2002, and has subsequently remained relatively stable at around 7-9% after 2002, with a recent increase in 2007 to 13%. Multivariate analysis showed that acquisition of non-B HIV-1 infection was independently associated with later year of HIV diagnosis (P < 0.001), black ethnicity (P < 0.001) and non-European country of birth (P = 0.01). Age was also associated with subtype with individuals aged 25-39 years being less likely to have non-B virus than those aged less than 25 years (P = 0.01). Restricting the analysis to white men born in the UK, the association between subtype and year of diagnosis remained statistically significant (P < 0.001), as did the association with age (P < 0.001). The number of MSM in the UK infected with non-B clade HIV-1 is increasing, suggesting that the sociodemographic boundaries between HIV-1 viral subtypes globally are diminishing. Should viral subtypes be relevant to clinical disease progression or vaccine design, the changing pattern of distribution will need to be taken into account.

The effect of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance on pre-therapy viral load

Reduced replication capacity of viruses expressing drug resistant mutations implies that patients with transmitted drug resistance (TDR) could have lower HIV RNA viral load than those infected with wild-type virus. We performed analysis using data from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database and the UK CHIC study. Eligible patients had a resistance test performed between 1997 and 2007 while naive to antiretroviral therapy, were 16 years or older, and had a viral load and CD4 cell count measurement within 6 months of this test. Models were adjusted for CD4 cell count, viral subtype, ethnicity, risk group, sex, age, calendar year, clinical centre, and viral load assay. Of a total of 7994 patients included, 709 (9%) had TDR: 604 (85%) had resistance to one drug class only [350 nucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 164 non-nucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 90 protease inhibitors (PIs)], 77 (11%) to two classes (42 NRTIs/NNRTIs, 31 NRTIs/PIs, 4 NNRTIs/PIs), and 28 (4%) had resistance to all three classes. The overall mean (SD) viral load at the time of resistance testing was 4.60 (0.82) log(10) copies/ml, and did not differ by class of TDR. However, patients harbouring M184V/I (n = 61) had a significantly lower viral load [adjusted mean difference -0.33 log10 copies/ml (95% CI -0.54 to -0.11), 53% lower (95% CI 22 to 71%), P = 0.002] compared to wild-type virus. Our study provides clear evidence of an in-vivo fitness cost associated with the M184V/I mutation independent of drug effects which select for this mutation. This was not observed for any other mutation, but true effects may have been obscured by reversion of initially resistant viruses to wild-type.

An Evolutionary Model-Based Algorithm for Accurate Phylogenetic Breakpoint Mapping and Subtype Prediction in HIV-1

Genetically diverse pathogens (such as Human Immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1) are frequently stratified into phylogenetically or immunologically defined subtypes for classification purposes. Computational identification of such subtypes is helpful in surveillance, epidemiological analysis and detection of novel variants, e.g., circulating recombinant forms in HIV-1. A number of conceptually and technically different techniques have been proposed for determining the subtype of a query sequence, but there is not a universally optimal approach. We present a model-based phylogenetic method for automatically subtyping an HIV-1 (or other viral or bacterial) sequence, mapping the location of breakpoints and assigning parental sequences in recombinant strains as well as computing confidence levels for the inferred quantities. Our Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms (SCUEAL) procedure is shown to perform very well in a variety of simulation scenarios, runs in parallel when multiple sequences are being screened, and matches or exceeds the performance of existing approaches on typical empirical cases. We applied SCUEAL to all available polymerase (pol) sequences from two large databases, the Stanford Drug Resistance database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Comparing with subtypes which had previously been assigned revealed that a minor but substantial (≈5%) fraction of pure subtype sequences may in fact be within- or inter-subtype recombinants. A free implementation of SCUEAL is provided as a module for the HyPhy package and the Datamonkey web server. Our method is especially useful when an accurate automatic classification of an unknown strain is desired, and is positioned to complement and extend faster but less accurate methods. Given the increasingly frequent use of HIV subtype information in studies focusing on the effect of subtype on treatment, clinical outcome, pathogenicity and vaccine design, the importance of accurate, robust and extensible subtyping procedures is clear.