Types Of Disasters Research Articles

Preschool Teachers' Opinions about Disaster Education in the Preschool Period

This qualitative study aims to gather preschool teachers’ opinions about disaster education given in the preschool period. The phenomenological approach was used in the study to describe and explain the experiences related to a particular phenomenon and situation in detail. The research study group consisted of 76 preschool teachers selected through criterion and maximum diversity sampling methods. The data collection tools utilized in this study include a semi-structured "Interview Form" consisting of open-ended questions and a "Personal Information Form." The descriptive analysis technique, one of the qualitative data analysis methods, was used to analyze the data obtained from the interview form. According to the research results, most preschool teachers think disaster education is necessary for the preschool period and emphasize that they aim for children to know the types of natural disasters through disaster education. The basic concepts that should be taught to children about disasters are "danger", "precaution", "risk",and "damage." Preschool teachers generally stated that "earthquake" was the most common disaster and "avalanche" was the least common disaster mentioned in disaster education. Most of the teachers indicated that they regularly incorporate "game" activities in disaster education and the education provided should be appropriate for the children's age. Preschool teachers stated the benefits of disaster education for children as "being prepared for emergencies", "gaining life skills" and "raising awareness." Most preschool teachers agree that effective disaster education should give children "the necessary knowledge and abilities to get ready for and manage disasters".

Assignment of Freight Traffic in a Large-scale Intermodal Network under Uncertainty

This paper presents a methodology for freight traffic assignment in a large-scale road-rail intermodal network under uncertainty. Network uncertainties caused by natural disasters have dramatically increased in recent years. Several of these disasters (e.g., Hurricane Sandy, Mississippi River Flooding, and Hurricane Harvey) severely disrupted the U.S. freight transportation network, and consequently, the supply chain. To account for these network uncertainties, a stochastic freight traffic assignment model is formulated. An algorithmic framework, involving the sample average approximation and gradient projection algorithm, is proposed to solve this challenging problem. The developed methodology is tested on the U.S. intermodal network with freight flow data from the Freight Analysis Framework. The experiments consider three types of natural disasters that have different risks and impacts on transportation networks: earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods. It is found that for all disaster scenarios, freight ton-miles are higher compared to the base case without uncertainty. The increase in freight ton-miles is the highest under the flooding scenario; this is because there are more states in the flood-risk areas, and they are scattered throughout the U.S.

Failure and Acoustic Emissions of Coal–Rock Combinations with Different Dip Angles in the Shaqu No. 1 Coal Mine

The force and deformation characteristics of the rock layer on the top and bottom of the coal seam change significantly when the dip angle changes. The mechanical properties and damage characteristics of differently inclined coal–rock assemblages were investigated, and the results were combined with acoustic emission information, including acoustic emission ringdown counts, to quantify the damage of inclined coal–rocks under compression. The experimental results showed that the stress‒strain curves of the inclined coal–rock assemblages had four main stages, with approximately similar curves in the early stage and deformation in the later stage. The damage gradually changed from shear damage to interfacial slip damage, and the damage area gradually transitioned to the structural surface from coal body components. The cumulative acoustic emission energy tended to decrease with increasing inclination angle, and the peak acoustic emission energy gradually decreased. When the inclination angle was less than 30°, the cumulative energy of acoustic emissions increased slowly, then decreased, and it finally decreased significantly between 30° and 45°; from 0° → 15° → 30° → 45°, the energy change rates were +3.0%, −25.1%, and −78.2%, respectively. For coal–rock assemblages with different interfacial angles, the sliding damage instability caused by the coal–rock interface increased with increasing interfacial angle within the assemblage. The results of this study provide a deeper understanding of the mechanical properties of coal–rock assemblages with different inclinations and the characteristics of fissure extension. The fractal dimension based on particle number decreased with increasing loading rate, and the larger the loading rate was, the smaller the fractal dimension. In addition, the current findings provide a reliable foundation for further understanding the mechanisms of disasters caused by coal–rock disturbances, such as excavation of inclined roadways and extraction of gas, as well as supporting the development of methods for monitoring, early warning, and prevention and control of these types of disasters.

Risk assessment of flood disasters in the Poyang lake area

Floods are one type of common and catastrophic disaster and cause extensive destruction areas, enormous casualties, and huge economic and environmental losses worldwide. Flood risk assessment is crucial to disaster mitigation and prevention, social stability and prosperity, and economic and environmental sustainability. This work establishes comprehensive risk indices of geoenvironmental, disaster-triggering, disaster-vulnerable, and disaster-preventive factors to improve the rationality of risk assessment. Moreover, a novel combined method of context-perception long short-term memory (LSTM), analytic hierarchy process, and entropy weight is suggested to perform relative accurate risk assessment in the Poyang lake region, one of the worst-hit areas in China. The new context-perception LSTM algorithm can adequately learn comprehensive and significant context characteristics and outperforms the context-based convolutional neural network and conventional LSTM algorithms. The test precision reaches 95.7%, 99.1%, 0.958, and 0.981 in Accuracy, TPR, F1-score, and AUC, respectively. Some significant insights into flood risk are suggested as follows. (1) High flood risk mainly occurs in the densely populated regions with gentle topography close to main streams. The concentrated population and intensive town construction have destroyed surface permeability and soil consolidation and caused high flood risk. (2) In the high-risk urban regions, the operational condition of old soil dikes should be continuously monitored, and the construction of high rock dikes are necessary to effective flood prevention in the future. In the densely-populated and high-risk urban regions, more emergency rescue infrastructures, for example hospitals and emergency shelters, are required to arrange or build. Rational planning of emergency shelters can not only protect people against floods but also reduce government investment. (3) Significant hydrological infrastructures require high-frequency or even near real-time monitoring to timely discover engineering diseases and to avoid huge losses caused by unstable prevention infrastructures during flash floods.

Multihazard Study at Tourism Locations in The Citatah Karst Area

Multihazards at important tourism locations are identified for sustainable tourism. The Karst area has tourism assets that have the potential for multi-hazard disasters. This study aims to identify multihazards at tourism sites in the Citatah Karst Area, West Bandung Regency. Tourism locations are identified using a survey method. Multihazards are analyzed using a Geographic Information System (GIS) with map product output. Based on the analysis, there are four types of disasters at 13 tourist sites in the Citatah Karst Area. The relative landslide hazard lies in the southwest Karst Citatah area, which has 13 potentially dangerous tourism sites. The earthquake hazard lies in the southeast and northwest areas with 13 potentially dangerous tourism locations. The danger of flooding lies in the Citarum river basin southwest of the Citatah Karst, with three potentially dangerous tourist sites. The potential for extreme weather hazards does not dominate the Citatah Karst Area, so it is relatively safe. However, several locations are included in the high category, namely in the southeast and northwest of the Citatah Karst Area. Each Multihazard at a tourism location is divided into four classifications: not affected, low, medium, and high. This research can be helpful in the development of disaster-based sustainable tourism potential.

Analysis of Disaster Vulnerability Areas in West Bandung Regency, West Java, Indonesia

Mineral resources, coal, and rock are one of the potentials possessed by Indonesia to be able to earn income from the mining sector. West Bandung Regency is one of the areas that have quite a lot of potential rock and mineral resources. The potential of this area is quite large, namely andesite rock, sand, limestone, and sandstone. Zeolite and others. On the other hand, the West Bandung area has a high potential and threat of being a disaster-prone. West Bandung Regency has the highest number of natural disasters occurring in the type of landslide disaster, which occurred 52 times in the period 2008-2016, or 68% of all disasters. Loss of economic value also occurs for mining material resources which are limited by the existence of a disaster zone. So it is necessary to carry out mitigation from the start to map disaster areas that have an impact on the distribution and existence of mining material resources. This study aims to identify and analyze the potential of rock resources in disaster-prone areas, so as to be able to prioritize conservation aspects for potential mining materials. The method used in this research is through literature study, mapping the potential of mining materials, mapping the potential of disaster-prone areas, processing of secondary data, and analysis using remote sensing. The results of this study are that the rocks in the West Bandung area are divided into groups of volcanic rocks, sedimentary rocks, and alluvial deposits. The volcanic rock group got a score of 3 because it was considered more prone to erosions than the sedimentary and alluvial rock groups which were scored 2 and 1. with a weighted level of disaster vulnerability. The zone of high disaster susceptibility is considered to have the highest probability of a disaster occurring. Therefore, in the final result, the overlap between the distribution of the potential for minerals and the zone of high disaster susceptibility results in a potential area for minerals that are relatively safe from disasters, both soil movement, and flooding. Potential mining resources in West Bandung Regency are Andesite basalt 1,860,412 ha (1.43%), Limestone 667.05 ha (0.50%), Sirtu 40,949.76 ha (31.35%%).

A REVIEW OF STOCK MARKET IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CATACLYSMS AND LESSONS FOR INVESTORS

The objective of this paper is to present a review analysis of stock market impact of environmental disaster with the factors that orchestrate the impact, and to offer a novel framework for investors and managers. The paper applied an in-depth empirical review and synthesis method. Findings from the review and synthesis of empirical literature provide strong evidence that environmental disasters have diverse effects on the stock markets with majority of the literature reporting adverse effects on the stock markets. Additionally, findings are more preponderant on short run impact than on long run effects. Findings also show that environmental disasters may offer unique arbitrage opportunities for short-selling investors. The paper concludes by highlighting the capacity of environmental finance as one of the catalysts to bolster corporate adaptive capacity to environmental disaster. Furthermore, the degree of environmental disaster impact on stock market may depend on factors such as the type of environmental disaster, geographical location of environmental disaster, economic sector, stage of economic development, length of disaster and intensity of disaster. Accordingly, the paper develops a framework, which is recommended as a model for further research agenda on environmental disaster effect on stock markets.

Precipitation Projection in Cambodia Using Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Models

The consequences of climate change are arising in the form of many types of natural disasters, such as flooding, drought, and tropical cyclones. Responding to climate change is a long horizontal run action that requires adaptation and mitigation strategies. Hence, future climate information is essential for developing effective strategies. This study explored the applicability of a statistical downscaling method, Bias-Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD), in downscaling climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and then applied the downscaled data to project the future condition of precipitation pattern and extreme events in Cambodia. We calculated four climate change indicators, namely mean precipitation changes, consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), and maximum one-day precipitation (rx1day) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios, which are SSP245 and SSP585. The results indicated the satisfactory performance of the BCSD method in capturing the spatial feature of orographic precipitation in Cambodia. The analysis of downscaled CMIP6 models shows that the mean precipitation in Cambodia increases during the wet season and slightly decreases in the dry season, and thus, there is a slight increase in annual rainfall. The projection of extreme climate indices shows that the CDD would likely increase under both climate change scenarios, indicating the potential threat of dry spells or drought events in Cambodia. In addition, CWD would likely increase under the SSP245 scenario and strongly decrease in the eastern part of the country under the SSP585 scenario, which inferred that the wet spell would have happened under the moderate scenario of climate change, but it would be the opposite under the SSP585 scenario. Moreover, rx1day would likely increase over most parts of Cambodia, especially under the SSP585 scenario at the end of the century. This can be inferred as a potential threat to extreme rainfall triggering flood events in the country due to climate change.

Improving Functional Exercises Based on Experts’ Evaluation Weights for Emergency Responses

Social and economic changes in Southeast Asia have caused significant changes to Vietnam’s national emergency management structure, including expanding the role of firefighters from firefighting to rescue activities in various situations. It is essential to develop methods for designing exercises to identify and address the gaps in competencies related to the new roles assigned to Vietnamese firefighters. This study aimed to develop a quantitative method to effectively arrange exercise injects. It applies the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weights of response actions in functional exercises and uses comparison methods to establish the relationship between the weights of the action types, players’ capability targets, and disaster types. The results indicate that the action type weights change when the disaster type changes, whereas the capability weights within each action type remain constant. In this study, we developed a method to adjust the exercise structure based on response action weights and to optimize the number of injects that represent each action type. This innovative approach holds great significance in exercise design, increasing the likelihood of achieving the exercise capability targets, not only in Vietnam, but also in other countries.

Research on Hail Mechanism Features Based on Dual-Polarization Radar Data

Hail is a type of severe convective weather disaster characterized by abundant water vapor and strong updrafts, resulting in intense and high reflectivity echoes in hail clouds, often accompanied by an overhanging form. Although hail research has made great progress, it is still challenging to achieve accurate identification of hail. Compared with traditional radar, dual-polarization radar can output a variety of polarization parameters and provide information about the shape and phase of precipitation particles, which is conducive to the identification of hail particles. In this study, dual-polarization radar data are used to explore more hail features from various perspectives, starting with the morphological characteristics of hail clouds and using common feature extraction methods in the field of image processing. A comprehensive approach to high-dimensional features is developed. Using machine learning methods, hail identification models are constructed in both the traditional mechanism feature space and the new feature space constructed in this study. Experimental results strongly confirm the significant effectiveness of the five-dimensional new mechanism features developed in this paper for hail identification.

A study on the establishment of database for local government disaster response and decision support system in the nuclear accidents

ABSTRACT Radiological disasters have been recognized as a prominent societal catastrophe worldwide since the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. In order to cope with such disasters, efforts have been made to improve disaster response plans and systems based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima accident. Particularly, as demonstrated by the Fukushima case, radiological disasters require the assumption of large-scale evacuation of residents. Thus, it is essential for prompt and accurate decision-making to take place at the local government’s Emergency Management Center (EMC), enabling smooth execution of the missions assigned to personnel at the field. This is crucial for protecting the lives of residents and ensuring their safety. However, the existing systems for effective response to radiological disasters are relatively inadequate compared to other types of disasters. To overcome these limitations, this study aims to develop Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that are optimized for radiological disaster response by standardizing the Field Measure Motion Manual at nuclear safety for local governments. Based on these SOPs, The Resident Protection Measures Support System (RPMS) will be proposed, which enables the timely dissemination of specific missions and information to personnel, while providing real-time information on the situation at the field to the EMC, supporting decision-making and facilitating effective situation management.

A phenomenological study on women's disaster experience in Türkiye

The number and severity of disasters are rising globally, with negative effects on the physical, social, and economic spheres. According to research, men and women experience disasters differently around the world and have different coping mechanisms. With their backgrounds in disaster relief and high levels of cognitive awareness, women are recognized as strong actors. The issues that women in Turkey face during disasters must be identified in this context and proposals for effective solutions must be developed. Research is scarce, despite the literature's importance accorded to disaster and women's studies. To examine in depth the disaster experiences and lessons learned of women who faced various types of disasters (earthquake, flood, landslide, fire, epidemic, drought, and terrorist attack), nineteen women were interviewed in a virtual setting. A qualitative research method called phenomenological design was employed in the study. With the help of the MAXQDA 2020 qualitative analysis program, the research's data were analyzed. The analyses have shown that women are ill-prepared for disasters, consider disaster early warnings, have difficulty and security issues in accessing basic needs after disasters, have incorrect information about disasters and are willing to participate in disaster education, encounter social problems, and want to participate in decision-making mechanisms, and they acquire correct behavior skills after their first reflex behaviors. In order to ensure gender equality and address issues with integrated disaster management, the administration can follow the significant findings of the research. In study contributes to the field of disaster research by analyzing the experiences of women in disasters, particularly what makes them vulnerable to disasters, the impact of gender roles in disasters, their behaviors and experiences at the time of the disaster, and the actions taken to turn learned lessons into behavior.

Improving the Effectiveness of Disaster Mitigation in Wonogiri Regency, Indonesia Using House of Risk Method

Wonogiri Regency, the Republic of Indonesia, is an area that has potential to be affected by various types of disasters. This study aims to identify the types of disaster potentials in the Wonogiri Regency and to provide recommendations for effective disaster mitigation strategies that can be effectively implemented by the Regional Disaster Management Agency (Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah or BPBD in short) of the Wonogiri Regency during 2021-2026 time period by using the House of Risk (HoR) method. The study found that floods, landslides, strong winds, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, forest and land fires, droughts, and extraordinary events are likely to take place in the regency. The implementation of the HoR phase 1 yields 19 disaster risk events and 19 disaster risk agents. The use of Pareto diagram to the disaster risk agents results in 8 dominant risk agents of disaster, namely “Unstable ground”; “The trees are too old and fragile”; “The trees are too dense”; Lack of water resources”; Heavy rain intensity”; “Struck by disaster materials”; “Epidemic of a disease”; and “The building construction is not strong”. The implementation of the HoR phase 2 produces 15 mitigation strategies along with their priority order in which the 5 mitigation strategies with the highest priority are “Working with related parties to reduce the potential of disasters”; “Conducting socialization and education of disasters”; “Establishing disaster-resilient villages”; “Mapping disaster-prone areas”; and “Training for disaster volunteers”.

Urban resilience assessment and its spatial correlation from the multidimensional perspective: A case study of four provinces in North-South Seismic Belt, China

Modern cities are facing increasingly complex challenges, and assessing urban resilience is crucial to improve their ability to withstand various types of shocks and disasters, especially in the China's North-South Seismic Belt with frequent tectonic activities and natural disasters. To address this issue, this study determined the weights of the assessment system based on the entropy weight method, and evaluated the urban resilience of four provinces in China's North-South Seismic Belt in multiple dimensions from the perspectives of society, economy, infrastructure, and ecology. Furthermore, we systematically explored the spatiotemporal trends of urban resilience and its spatial correlation from 2011 to 2021. Lastly, the assessment results were validated and analyzed by four historical earthquake cases using national polar-orbiting partnership - visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (NPP-VIIRS) nighttime light data. The findings reveal that the average urban resilience index increased from 0.027 to 0.058 from 2011 to 2021, signifying a remarkable surge of 115.42%. Sichuan emerged as a consistent frontrunner in terms of urban resilience. Overall, the study area shows a spatial distribution pattern of higher urban resilience in the east and lower resilience in the west, due to the larger population and more developed economy in the east. However, the south has a higher average annual growth rate, while the north has a lower average annual growth rate. A notable observation is the gradual reduction in the coefficient of variation of urban resilience from 0.823 in 2011 to 0.751 in 2021, indicating a decline in the disparity of resilience levels. Meanwhile, Moran's I gradually increased from 0.2017 in 2011 to 0.4476 in 2021, signifying a progressive intensification in the spatial correlation of urban resilience and an evident propensity toward aggregation. By selecting shifts in the total nighttime light index (TNLI) during representative earthquake incidents as an indirect gauge of urban resilience levels, this study finds congruence with the assessment outcomes, thereby further substantiating the precision of the urban resilience evaluations. Policymakers should prioritize the allocation of resources to less resilient cities to improve their ability to withstand and recover from disaster events. The urban resilience assessment system in this study, despite its multidimensionality, may still not be able to fully cover all the factors affecting urban resilience. This study provides a significant decision-making basis for policymakers in urban development and disaster response, as well as a useful reference for building a more robust and sustainable urban future.

Meta-analyses of motivational factors of response to natural disaster

Response behavior of individuals is of critical importance to decrease chances of injury and death as well as ameliorate costs in property and infrastructure damage in natural disasters. Plenty of studies have examined which factors motivate individuals to respond to natural disasters. However, a systematic overview of the key motivating factors of various response behaviors is lacking. This study conducts a series of meta-analyses using data of 53,713 samples from 87 studies (77 papers) conducted in 27 different countries and regions to examine how 17 motivational factors were associated with individuals’ response to natural disasters. The results indicate self-efficacy, outcome efficacy, attitudes, subjective norms, and information acquisition show the strongest effects on response behavior. Contrarily, the impact of negative affects like fear, depression, and anxiety on victims is minimal, despite the common assumption that they are significant related to response behaviour. In addition, current studies have disproportionally focused on studying risk perception, experience and information acquisition, earthquake and hurricane, and evacuation and preparation, while attention given to other types of motivational factors, disasters and response behaviors is lacking.

Applied distance learning methods in disaster preparedness: A systematic review.

Nowadays, accidents and disasters are one of the most important issues facing humans. Training is an important feature in disasters and distance learning is a suitable method for education in every place and at every time. The aim of this study is to determine distance learning methods in disaster preparedness. This study was conducted to this question: what types of distance learning methods can use in disaster preparedness?". In this study, all published English language papers, with no time limit, were extracted by the end of December 2021 through search in PubMed, Scopus, Google scholar, ISI WOS (Web of Science), and Embase. The primary search used "distance learning", "disaster" and their MeSH terms. Quality appraisal carried out with CASP. Information in the articles including study time, study population, e-learning methods, and type of disasters or emergencies were extracted. Based on the search, 46 studies were carried out between 2002 and 2021. The most studied target group in the studies was health professionals and the content of the courses was attributed to disaster preparedness as well as biological disasters. Regarding e-learning methods, the most used method was 'simulation'. At the time of disasters, including pandemics, disruption in education may be long-term and may require overlapping response and recovery periods. And virtual education during a disaster may be rejected or endorsed by individuals or groups based on cultural, ideological, or prejudicial issues. Distance education can be used for effective disaster education in different phases of the disaster cycle, depending on the available facilities and infrastructure.

Markov chain analysis to predict natural disasters in the Province of Bangka Belitung Islands as part of preventative measures to prevent environmental damage

Bangka Belitung Islands Province is a province which is famous for its beauty and natural wealth. In addition to its natural beauty and wealth, this province has disaster-prone areas. Based on the results of the 2021 Indonesian Disaster Risk Index (IRBI) measurement, the Bangka Belitung Islands Province has the second highest risk class in Indonesia with a value of 160.98. Therefore, a study is needed that aims to determine the prediction of natural disasters in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province as a preventive measure to prevent environmental damage. The analytical method used in this research is the Markov Chain method. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the official website of the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) from 2017 to 2022 with several types of disasters, including floods, landslides, tornadoes, forest and land fires, and natural disasters others (missing persons, house fires, drowning persons, etc.). Based on the results of calculations using the Markov Chain concept, it can be concluded that the possibility of flooding in 2023 is 31.46%, landslides are 7.73%, tornadoes are 43.81%, forest and land fires are 14.32%, and other disasters of 2.69% with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.356 and a Mean Square Error (MSE) of 0.17.

Local Government Resonance on Disaster Potential Issues

Ring of fire that surround Indonesia from east to the west made this country become potential vulnerable to various types of natural disasters, Morowali is a district located in central sulawesi province that one of a disaster-prone area. It is traversed by the Matano fault which connected to Palu Koro fault which is a fault with approximately 8 mm active movement per year. This study aims to see how far the local government of Morowali responds to the issue of potential disasters, consider that Morowali district is one of the areas designated by the state government as a special economic zone. This study using an exploratory case study that does not see phenomena only from problems but also in the form of social activities, groups, and organization. Niklas Luhmann's concept of resonance is the main reference in describes the interconnection between systems and the environment. Research data obtained using in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and field observations. The informants in this study were executive and legislative board. The results show that the executive and legislative response to the issue of potential natural disasters shows the resonant capacity of two functional systems politics and economics are weak, which shows that the government's system should encourage the concept of proactive adaptation to strengthen its response to the existing potential disasters and create security for the Morowali community.

Snow Avalanche Hazard Mapping Using a GIS-Based AHP Approach: A Case of Glaciers in Northern Pakistan from 2012 to 2022

Snow avalanches are a type of serious natural disaster that commonly occur in snow-covered mountains with steep terrain characteristics. Susceptibility analysis of avalanches is a pressing issue today and helps decision makers to implement appropriate avalanche risk reduction strategies. Avalanche susceptibility maps provide a preliminary method for evaluating places that are likely to be vulnerable to avalanches to stop or reduce the risks of such disasters. The current study aims to identify areas that are vulnerable to avalanches (ranging from extremely high and low danger) by considering geo-morphological and geological variables and employing an Analytical Hierarchy Approach (AHP) in the GIS platform to identify potential snow avalanche zones in the Karakoram region in Northern Pakistan. The Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was used to extract the elevation, slope, aspect, terrain roughness, and curvature of the study area. This study includes the risk identification variable of land cover (LC), which was obtained from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) satellite. The obtained result showed that the approach established in this study provided a quick and reliable tool to map avalanches in the study area, and it might also work with other glacier sites in other parts of the world for snow avalanche susceptibility and risk assessments.

Integrating data-driven and physically based landslide susceptibility methods using matrix models to predict reservoir landslides

One of the most hazardous types of landslide disasters is reservoir landslides. Spatially predicting the probability of these events when the hydroelectric power station is not impounded can provide a foundation for their prevention and management. A reservoir landslide prediction study was conducted using the reservoir of the Baihetan Hydropower Station in Southwest China as the research area. The study applied both the widely used data-driven landslide susceptibility assessment method and the physics-based landslide stability evaluation approach. Additionally, a matrix prediction model based on a combination of the aforementioned techniques was suggested for reservoir landslide prediction. The applicability of the three approaches was assessed based on the findings of a field investigation of reservoir landslides during the initial impoundment period. The results demonstrated that, in the absence of historical reservoir landslide data, the prediction success rate of the susceptibility mapping method was incredibly poor, at only 30.19%. While the stability prediction approach had an 88.68% success rate, its frequency ratio was only 5.22. The approach significantly overpredicted reservoir landslides, according to a study of the prediction results for regions. On the other hand, the frequency ratio of the matrix prediction model, which combines the two approaches, was 2.24 times that of the stability prediction approach. Thus, the matrix prediction model was found to be more reliable than other methods and capable of predicting the vast majority of reservoir landslides with fewer extremely high probability reservoir landslide areas. To further increase the accuracy of reservoir landslide prediction, it is recommended to use the matrix prediction model.