Two-period Panel Data Research Articles

Multidimensional relative poverty alleviation of the targeted microcredit in rural China: a gendered perspective

PurposeThis study explores whether targeted microcredit can effectively alleviate households’ multidimensional relative poverty (MdRP) in rural China in the new era following the poverty elimination campaign and discusses it from a gendered perspective.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies a fixed-effects model, propensity score matching (PSM) and two-stage instrumental variable method to two-period panel data collected from 611 households in rural western China in 2018 and 2021 to explore the effects, mechanisms and heterogenous performance of targeted microcredit on households’ MdRP in the new era.Findings(i) Targeted microcredit can alleviate MdRP among rural households in the new era, mainly by reducing income and opportunity inequality. (ii) Targeted microcredit can promote women’s empowerment, mainly by enhancing their social participation, thereby helping alleviate households’ MdRP. The effect of the targeted microcredit on MdRP is more significant in medium-educated women households and non-left-behind women households. (iii) The MdRP alleviation effect is stronger in villages with a high degree of digitalization.Research limitations/implicationsLearn from the experience of targeted microcredit. Accurately identify poor groups and integrate loan design into financial health and women empowerment. Particularly, pay attention to less-educated and left-behind women households and strengthen coordination between targeted microcredit and digital village strategies.Originality/valueThis study clarifies the effect of targeted microcredit on women’s empowerment and households’ MdRP alleviation in the new era. It also explores its various effects on households with different female characteristics and regional digitalization levels, providing ideas for optimizing microcredit.

Do farmer-actor interactions in the agricultural innovation system drive technological innovation adoption in Ghana?

The low level of technological innovation adoption among farmers has been a development concern. However, not much attention has been paid to how agricultural innovation system actors contribute to the adoption of technological innovations among farmers. This paper, therefore, analyzed the factors that drive the adoption of technological innovations using the agricultural innovation system concept. The study adopted a mixed method approach where qualitative data from focus group discussions were used to triangulate findings obtained from the quantitative data analyzed. A two-period panel data of 3486 observations of randomly sampled agricultural households across Ghana was analyzed using descriptive statistics and the multinomial logit regression model. Findings showed that farmers with strong ties in the innovation system had a higher probability of adopting multiple sets of innovations, compared to those with weaker linkages. Platforms that encourage actor interactions such as innovation platforms should be strengthened to increase the innovative performance of smallholder farmers. This study is one of the few that have quantified the effect the agricultural innovation system has on the adoption of innovations and hence makes a positive contribution to the budding literature regarding the importance of unpacking actor interactions whilst considering a holistic inquiry of the agricultural innovation system.

Nourishing Hope? Changes in Malnutrition and Changes in Girls' Aspirations—Evidence From the Suaahara II Adolescent Girls Panel in Nepal

PurposeMalnutrition is a pressing public health challenge in South Asia with adverse consequences for adolescent girls' well-being and, potentially, aspirations as drivers of developmental progress. This study aimed to investigate associations between changes in malnutrition and changes in girls' aspirations in key life domains. MethodsWe analyzed two-period panel data from the Suaahara II Adolescent Girls Panel (10–19 years) in Nepal (2018–2019, n = 613). Height, weight, blood samples, 24-hour dietary recalls, and indicators of girls' educational, occupational, marital, and fertility aspirations were collected. Height-for-age z-scores, body mass index–for-age z-scores, hemoglobin concentration (Hb g/dL), and dietary diversity scores for women were calculated. Through cluster-robust fixed-effects regressions, we examined whether changes in thinness (body mass index–for-age z-scores < −2 standard deviation), anemia (Hb <115 g/L nonpregnant <11 years; Hb <120 g/L nonpregnant >12 years; Hb <110 g/L pregnant), and reaching minimum dietary diversity for women were associated with changes in educational, marital, or fertility aspirations. ResultsA change from thinness to no thinness increased girls' aspired ages of having a first child by 2.77 years (standard error [SE] 1.22, p = .025). A change from anemia to no anemia increased girls' aspired years of education by .54 (SE .27, p = .044). This association was stronger for postmenarche girls (b −.62, SE .29, p = .035). No associations were found between changes in minimum dietary diversity for women and any of the aspirations. ConclusionsThinness and anemia were negatively associated with adolescent girls' aspirations in domains of fertility and education. Multisectoral integrated policies and programs that improve adolescent nutritional status and diets have the potential to foster adolescent girls' aspirations and thereby increase their future potential.

Government policies and firm performance in the COVID-19 pandemic era: a sectoral analysis.

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been severely detrimental to most firms. Preliminary estimates from Italy, which experienced the worst devastation from the virus during the early days of the pandemic, predicted that the country could lose at least $8.3 bn in the service and manufacturing sectors due to the coronavirus pandemic. Although there has been a series of ongoing government policies to mitigate the economic effect of the pandemic, we do not know to what extent these policies have been effective. Using two-period panel data (before and during the pandemic) on 419 Italian firms, this study examines the impact of government policies on firms using first difference estimation. The results show that firms that received a government grant in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic saw on average an 11% increase in sales revenue by the end of June 2020 compared to those yet to receive grants. A sectoral decomposition of the analysis indicates government policy to be effective in the services sector if performance is measured by sales revenue.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-021-00170-6.

Does high-speed rail stimulate urban land growth? Experience from China

This paper aims to measure the impact of HSR on urban land growth and to explore how the impact varies between different types of cites. Since HSR route planning decisions are influenced by the economic status of cities en route, whether a city gets an HSR station is likely to be endogenous to its economic growth and land development rate. To address this endogeneity, we adopt a Two-period Panel Data Instrumental Variable model using post road network in the Ming Dynasty and locations of military bases as instrumental variables. Results show that being connected to the HSR network on average leads to a 11.2% faster rate of growth of urban built-up areas. More interestingly, we document substantial heterogeneity in this impact based on the size and location of cities. Causes and mechanism for such heterogeneity are also elaborated, together with the policy and planning implications.

Population Aging, Mobility, and Real Estate Price: Evidence from Cities in China

Demographic factors are crucial to the sustainable development of one country. China’s population is aging at an accelerating rate and, together with the increasing mobility between cities, some special demographic issues have formed, which is quite related to the urban real estate market. The paper aims to investigate how the population aging and mobility affect housing prices at the city level, by using a set of two-period panel data of 294 prefecture-level cities in China. The results show that an increase in elderly dependency ratio by 1% leads to a rise in housing prices by 0.368%. Meanwhile, an increase in urbanization level by 1% drives up housing prices by about 0.139%, and a rise in the ratio of inter-regional migration by 1% will increase housing prices by about 1.038%. Furthermore, the policy of purchase limits could weaken the positive impacts of elderly dependency ratio and inter-regional migration on housing prices and, thus, plays a moderating role on the relationship between demographic structure and housing prices.

Shelter from the Storm? Household-Level Impacts of, and Responses to, the 2015 Floods in Malawi

As extreme weather events intensify due to climate change, it becomes ever more critical to understand how vulnerable households are to these events and the mechanisms households can rely on to minimize losses effectively. This paper analyzes the impacts of the floods that occurred during the 2014/15 growing season in Malawi, using a two-period panel data set. The results show that while yields were dramatically lower for households severely affected by the floods, drops in food consumption expenditures and calories per capita were less dramatic. However, dietary quality, as captured by the food consumption score, was significantly lower for flood-affected households. Although access to social safety nets increased food consumption outcomes, particularly for those in moderately-affected areas, the proportion of households with access to certain safety net programs was lower in 2015 compared with 2013. The latter finding suggests that linking these programs more closely to disaster relief efforts could substantially improve welfare outcomes during and after a natural disaster. Finally, risk-coping strategies, including financial account ownership, access to off-farm income sources, and adult children living away from home, were generally ineffective in mitigating the negative impacts of the floods.

A note on sufficiency in binary panel models

Consider estimating the slope coefficients of a fixed-effect binary-choice model from two-period panel data. Two approaches to semiparametric estimation at the regular parametric rate have been proposed. One is based on a sufficient statistic, the other is based on a conditional-median restriction. We show that, under standard assumptions, both approaches are equivalent.

Weather, agriculture and rural migration: evidence from state and district level migration in India

AbstractThis study explores three-way linkage between weather, agricultural performance and internal migration in India at the state and district level using census data. The estimations are based on a two-stage least squares model using panel data. The elasticity of the inter-state out-migration rate with respect to per capita net state domestic agricultural product is − 0.775, indicating that a decline in the value of agricultural output related to weather variations results in an increase in out-migration rate. The crop-wise analysis shows that a 1 per cent decline in rice (wheat) yield leads to a nearly 2 per cent (1 per cent) increase in the rate of out-migration from a state. The district-level analysis shows larger magnitudes of estimated change in in-migration rates to relative changes in crop yields. However, the district-level analysis using two-period panel data constructed from a single census provides relatively less robust results compared to the state-level analysis owing to the associated data limitations.

Vulnerability of household consumption to floods and droughts in developing countries: evidence from Pakistan

AbstractAggregate shocks such as droughts and floods cannot be perfectly insured by risk sharing within a village. Given this inability, what type of households are more vulnerable in terms of a decline in consumption when a village is hit by such shocks and what kind of microeconomic mechanism underlies the household heterogeneity in vulnerability? These questions are investigated using two-period panel data collected in rural Pakistan in 2001 and 2004. We compare consumption response to droughts, floods and health shocks and investigate how the response differs across different types of households. Empirical results show that the impact of droughts was negligible, younger and more landed households were less vulnerable to floods, and households with greater access to formal financial institutions were less vulnerable to idiosyncratic health shocks. The empirical pattern suggests the possibility of risk sharing among households that are heterogeneous in both risk aversion and credit access.

Does state budget pressure matter for uncompensated care spending in hospitals? Findings from Texas and California

This study examined the impact of state budget cuts on uncompensated care at general acute care hospital organizations. This study capitalized on the variations in the states of Texas and California to form a natural experiment testing the joint impact of budget cut status on uncompensated care costs, as well as specific charity care costs and bad debt expenses from indigent patients. Budget cuts in the state of Texas occurred in the year 2004. Information was obtained from the Texas Department of Health and the California Department of Health Services regarding financial characteristics of hospitals and from the American Hospital Directory annual survey regarding organizational characteristics of hospitals. We created three dependent variables: R(UC) (the ratio of total uncompensated care costs to gross patient revenue), R(CC) (the ratio of charity care to total patient revenue) and R(BD) (the ratio of bad debt expenses to gross patient revenue). Using a two-period panel data set and individual hospital fixed effects, we captured hospital uncompensated care spending that could also have influenced budget cut status. Additionally, the impact of the state budget cut status on hospitals' uncompensated care spending, charity care spending and bad debt expenses was also estimated using the similar methodology. In this study, we included 416 (in Texas) and 352 (in California) public, not-for-profit (NFP) and for-profit (FP) hospitals that completed the annual survey during the study period 2002-2005. For the state of Texas, results from the fixed effect model confirmed that the year 2005 was directly related to increased R(UC) and R(CC) . The coefficients of 2005 were significantly and positively associated with R(UC) (0.43, p < 0.05) and R(CC) (0.29, p < 0.05). These results supported the findings that the R(UC) and the R(CC) would be more positively associated with 2005 than any other year, with other things being equal. However, for the state of California, even though the coefficient of 2005 was significant and positively associated with R(CC) (0.31, p < 0.05), the coefficient of uncompensated care spending was not statistically significant for 2005. The healthcare industry is characterized by increased regulation, a growing number of uninsured patients, increasingly stringent reimbursement and competitive practices among hospitals and other providers. Federal and state healthcare agencies are restricting the criteria for eligibility for outlier payments and uncompensated care provisions. Tax exempt status of many NFP hospitals is being examined and tied to specific performances, particularly the provision of uncompensated care. This study provides evidence of the impact of budget cut pressure on uncompensated care provided in Texas general acute care hospitals.

Can the health insurance reforms stop an increase in medical expenditures for middle- and old-aged persons in Japan?

Using two-period panel data from the Nippon Life Insurance Research Institute, this paper tests the hypothesis that an increase in the self-pay ratio of medical expenditures associated with the Japanese health insurance reforms of April 2003 reduced household medical expenditures. We find that the increase in the self-pay ratio had a positive but insignificant effect on the share of medical expenses in household expenditure. However, when we employ the data as repeated cross-sectional observations to increase the sample size, the increase in the self-pay ratio has a significantly positive effect on the share of medical expenditures. This provides corroborating evidence that middle- and old-aged persons were unable to reduce their demand for medical services with the increase in the self-pay ratio. An additional finding is that medical services are a necessary good, particularly for those aged 61 years or older and those with medical expenditures accounting for a relatively high share of medical expenditures in high household expenditure.

Program impact evaluation using a matching method with panel data

Difference-in-differences with matching is a popular method to measure the impact of an intervention in health and social sciences. This method requires baseline data, that is, data before interventions, which are not always available in reality. Instead, panel data with two time periods are often collected after interventions begin. In this paper, a simple matching method is proposed to measure the impact of an intervention using two-period panel data after the intervention. The method is illustrated by the measurement of the effect of health insurance in Vietnam using household panel data.

Competition between Brazil and other exporting countries in the US import market: a new extension of constant-market-shares analysis

This article develops a new extension of the constant-market-shares model, attributing the gains or losses of market share of an exporter in a specific market to its competitors. The method is then applied to Brazil's exports of manufactured products to the US market, determining from which countries and by how much Brazil gained market share, and to which countries Brazil lost market share in the period between 1992, 1999 and 2004. The bilateral gains and losses of Brazil to OECD countries are shown to be related to changes in the relative unit labour costs of these countries through a two-period panel data analysis.

Off-farm work and capital accumulation decisions of farmers over the life-cycle: the role of heterogeneity and state dependence

This paper analyzes two principal simultaneous decisions of farm operators: off-farm labor supply and farm capital investment. We first develop a theoretical model analyzing the effects of exogenous shocks on farmers' decisions. Then, we estimate jointly a multinomial probit model of farmers' off-farm labor supply and a switching regression model of farm capital, using a two-period panel data set from Israel. This method enables to account for both unobserved heterogeneity and structural state dependence. The results demonstrate that farm capital investments during the 1970s, which were enhanced by heavily subsidized credit, prevented farmers from seeking off-farm employment opportunities.

Inverse probability weighted M-estimators for sample selection, attrition, and stratification

I provide an overview of inverse probability weighted (IPW) M-estimators for cross section and two-period panel data applications. Under an ignorability assumption, I show that population parameters are identified, and provide straightforward \(\sqrt{N}\)-consistent and asymptotically normal estimation methods. I show that estimating a binary response selection model by conditional maximum likelihood leads to a more efficient estimator than using known probabilities, a result that unifies several disparate results in the literature. But IPW estimation is not a panacea: in some important cases of nonresponse, unweighted estimators will be consistent under weaker ignorability assumptions.

The Development of the Land Lease Market in Rural China

This paper examines the development of the land lease market in rural China. Special attention is paid to productive heterogeneity among farmers and the openness of the labor market in activating the land lease market. A theoretical model is employed to explore the underlying connections. An econometric model is implemented using a two-period panel data set gathered in three counties of China's Zhejiang province. The results show that productive heterogeneity and a freer labor market do promote more land leases. The implications for the institutional change literature are discussed.

Correcting Attrition and Response Biases in Stated Preference Mode Choice Models by Using Mass Point Approach

Opposing to a number of its advantages, panel data in transport also has some disadvantages such as an attrition bias caused by the non-random dropping out of participants in the panel survey and a response bias caused by the fatigue of repetitive participation in the panel for long term. The existing studies concerning the correction of the at trition bias in model building have mostly tackled with two-period panel data. However, the problem becomes more complicated and serious in modeling based on more than two-period panel data. This study aims to propose a new correcting method of the attrition and response biases in three-period panel data by using Mass Point approach. As a case study, the proposed method was applied to correct the biases in mode choice models based on SP panel data in Hiroshima. It was found that this method has higher power than the conventional methods with regards to the correction of the biased oarameters and the estimation of modal shares.

Application of multinomial probit to a two-period panel data set

The purpose of this paper is to utilise a relatively unique data set in the application of multinomial probit, where the data contains observations on the same set of individuals at two points in time. A number of alternative decision structures are proposed and assessed. In particular we examine the effect of accumulated experience on the choice outcome in a subsequent period and a recently developed panel data procedure which involves pooling the data while recognizing its special nature. Conventional policy measures are obtained and assessed in the context of alternative decision structures. For example, elasticities are obtained as if the data is a single cross section and when its temporal nature is taken into account.