21st Century Research Articles

Mitigation-driven global heat imbalance in the late 21st century

While the changes in ocean heat uptake in a warming climate have been well explored, the changes in response to climate mitigation efforts remain unclear. Using coupled climate model simulations, here we find that in response to a hypothesized reduction of greenhouse gases in the late 21st century, ocean heat uptake would significantly decline in all ocean basins except the North Atlantic, where a persistently weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation results in sustained heat uptake. These prolonged circulation anomalies further lead to interbasin heat exchanges, characterized by a sustained heat export from the Atlantic to the Southern Ocean and a portion of heat transfer from the Southern Ocean to the Indo-Pacific. Due to ocean heat uptake decline and interbasin heat export, the Southern Ocean experiences the strongest decline in ocean heat storage therefore emerging as the primary heat exchanger, while heat changes in the Indo-Pacific basin are relatively limited.

What we mean

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

The future

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Between Cosmology and Technology: Nonhuman Near-Omniscience as Animist Practice in Nnedi Okorafor's Lagoon

ABSTRACT: This article develops the term nonhuman near-omniscience to examine the narrative dynamics behind narrators who know almost everything and whose super-human knowledge draws on African cosmologies. Noting the prevalence of such narration in African sf, the article takes Nnedi Okorafor's novel Lagoon (2014) as an example of nonhuman near-omniscience, focusing on the role of the storytelling spider Udide Okwanka as the novel's metanarrator. It traces Udide's use of uncertainty, paradox, and metafictional slippages, while also noting parallels between Udide's trickster qualities and technology in the novel—both human-made and alien—that likewise generate super-human registers of knowledge. As a rejection of the binaries of cosmology/technology, human/nonhuman, and realist/nonrealist, the article considers nonhuman near-omniscience as a practice of relationality, based on Harry Garuba's framework of "animist materialism" and scholarship on animism as a relational epistemology from divergent Indigenous contexts. The paper makes two overarching claims: one, that nonhuman near-omniscience draws on the conception of deities in animist traditions that are typically characterized by relationality, rather than the absolute power commonly associated with the omniscient narrator in Abrahamic traditions; and two, that nonhuman near-omniscience is a metafictional practice that is pertinent not only to our understanding of contemporary African literary genres, but to larger questions of knowledge production in the twenty-first century.

The strategic utility of cyber operations

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Christian Zionism in the Twenty-First Century: American Evangelical Public Opinion on Israel by Motti Inbari and Kirill Bumin and: Messianic Zionism in the Digital Age: Jews, Noahides, and the Third Temple Imaginary by Rachel Z. Feldman (review)

Christian Zionism in the Twenty-First Century: American Evangelical Public Opinion on Israel by Motti Inbari and Kirill Bumin and: Messianic Zionism in the Digital Age: Jews, Noahides, and the Third Temple Imaginary by Rachel Z. Feldman (review)

The cyber dimension of the Russia–Ukraine war

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Responsible cyber power

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

A short history of cyber operations

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Strategic risks

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Music Reviews

Abstract: This article reviews the following four works by song composers of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, two of whom created or finished their works during the COVID pandemic; Finnish composer Kaija Saariaho (1952–2023), Saarikoski Songs for Voice and Piano ; Albrecht Mendelssohn Bartholdy’s Songs for Lena (Recent Researches in the Music of the Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Centuries) ; and Evan Fein’s “The Solitary Reaper,” and Songs of the Open Road , for mezzo-soprano, clarinet in B♭ and piano.

Maintaining balance

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

The UK model

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Attacking the issue

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Degradation of extracellular antibiotic resistance genes using peracetic acid (PAA) and performic acid (PFA)

Antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) associated infections are identified as a major threat to human health in the 21st century. Wastewater contains antibiotic resistance determinants and they are discharged to aquatic environments with treated or untreated effluents. These antibiotic resistance determinants can be taken up by environmental bacteria via horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and they can become antibiotic resistant. Among antibiotic resistance determinants, extracellular DNA containing antibiotic resistance genes can be up taken by environmental bacteria via natural transformation. Therefore, we evaluated the suitability of low-cost disinfectants peracetic acid (PAA) and performic acid (PFA) on inactivating total and functional extracellular ARGs in ultrapure water and secondary wastewater effluent matrices using pUC19 as a model ARG. Performance of PAA and PFA in inactivating extracellular ARGs was compared with the performance of free chlorine disinfection. RT-qPCR results showed that inactivation of ampR gene in pUC19 plasmid suspended in ultrapure water and wastewater secondary effluent by free chlorine was higher compared to PAA and PFA. However, the reduction of functional pUC19 by PAA and PFA were comparable to free chlorine. Transformation frequency of pUC19 treated by PAA and PFA achieved the maximum possible reduction within a shorter time compared to free chlorine treatment, highlighting the possibility of having disinfection chambers with smaller footprints in wastewater treatment plants. These results suggest the suitability of PAA and PFA for inactivation of ARGs in aquatic samples as alternative disinfectants to free chlorine.

Spatiotemporal variations of surface albedo in Central Asia and its influencing factors and confirmatory path analysis during the 21st century

Surface albedo (SA) is crucial for understanding land surface processes and climate simulation. This study analyzed SA changes and its influencing factors in Central Asia from 2001 to 2020, with projections 2025 to 2100. Factors analyzed included snow cover fraction, fractional vegetation cover, soil moisture, average state climate indices (temperature and precipitation), and extreme climate indices (heatwave indices and extreme precipitation indices). Pearson correlation coefficient, geographical convergent cross mapping, and geographical detector were used to quantify the correlation, causal relationship strength, and impact degree between SA and the influencing factors. To address multicollinearity, ridge regression (RR), geographically weighted ridge regression (GWRR), and piecewise structural equation modeling (pSEM) were combined to construct RR-pSEM and GWRR-pSEM models. Results indicated that SA in Central Asia increased from 2001 to 2010 and decreased from 2011 to 2020, with a projected future decline. There is a strong correlation and significant causality between SA and each factor. Snow cover fraction was identified as the most critical factor influencing SA. Average temperature and precipitation had a greater impact on SA than extreme climate indices, with a 1 °C temperature increase corresponding to a 0.004 decrease in SA. This study enhances understanding of SA changes under climate change, and provides a methodological framework for analyzing complex systems with multicollinearity. The proposed models offer valuable tools for studying interrelated factors in Earth system science.

1,3,4-Oxadiazole Scaffold in Antidiabetic Drug Discovery: An Overview.

Diabetes mellitus is one of the biggest challenges for the scientific community in the 21st century. With the increasing number of cases of diabetes and drug-resistant diabetes, there is an urgent need to develop new potent molecules capable of combating this cruel disease. Medicinal chemistry concerns the discovery, development, identification, and interpretation of the mode of action of biologically active compounds at the molecular level. Oxadiazole-based derivatives have come up as a potential option for antidiabetic drug research. Oxadiazole is a five-membered heterocyclic organic compound containing two nitrogen atoms and one oxygen atom in its ring. Oxadiazole hybrids have shown the ability to improve glucose tolerance, enhance insulin sensitivity, and reduce fasting blood glucose levels. The mechanisms underlying the antidiabetic effects of oxadiazole involve the modulation of molecular targets such as peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ), α-glucosidase, α-amylase and GSK-3β which regulate glucose metabolism and insulin secretion. The present review article describes the chemical structure and properties of oxadiazoles and highlights the antidiabetic activity through action on different targets. The SAR for the oxadiazole hybrids has been discussed in this article, which will pave the way for the design and development of new 1,3,4-oxadiazole derivatives as promising antidiabetic agents in the future. We expect that this article will provide comprehensive knowledge and current innovation on oxadiazole derivatives with antidiabetic potential and will fulfil the needs of the scientific community in designing and developing efficacious antidiabetic agents.

Minilateralism and the new Indo-Pacific order: theoretical ambitions and empirical realities

ABSTRACT The introductory paper sets the stage for the research essays in the special issue. It provides an overview of the concepts of minilateralism and the context in which minilateralism has become an alternative form of collective action by states in the international arena, in particular in the Indo-Pacific region that has emerged as the new centre of gravity in world politics. How has minilateralism become a prominent feature of inter-state cooperation in the early twenty-first century, and how is it often used to complement (and in some cases, even substitute for) traditional international organisations, which are based on more liberal and inclusive multilateral norms and principles, but suffering from functional deficits? In a world of more diffuse power, how can minilateralism offer states an expanded toolset for pursuing their policy preferences and advancing their interests? At the same time, the paper also highlights the potential negatives of (or challenges to) minilateralism, including difficulties emanating from a narrowly framed agenda that perpetuates certain narratives, a leadership vacuum that could emerge from non-hierarchical arrangements, and questions about how to achieve support and legitimacy with low institutionalisation.

Single-chain A35R-M1R-B6R trivalent mRNA vaccines protect mice against both mpox virus and vaccinia virus

Mpox has spread to many countries around the world. While the existing live attenuated mpox vaccines are effective, advances in 21st century technologies now enable the development of vaccines with more specific antigens, clearer mechanisms, and more controllable side effects. We systematically evaluated the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of the A35R, M1R and B6R antigens of the mpox virus (MPXV). With these findings, we designed three single-chain trivalent mRNA vaccines (AMAB-wt, AMAB-C140S and AMB-C140S) by integrating the soluble regions of these antigens into single mRNA-encoded polypeptides based on their protein structures. Then, the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of these single-chain mRNA vaccines were evaluated in mice models against both VACV and MPXV. The three single-chain vaccines elicited neutralising antibodies that effectively neutralised both VACV and MPXV. The single-chain vaccines or cocktail vaccine containing mRNAs encoding soluble antigen (sA35R+sM1R+sB6R) exhibited 100% or 80% protection against a lethal dose of VACV challenge, while the cocktail of full-length antigens (A35+ M1+ B6) and the live attenuated vaccine, VACV Tian Tan (VACV-VTT), completely failed to protect mice. Moreover, the single-chain vaccines significantly reduced viral load in the lungs and ovaries of MPXV-challenged mice. Compared with the cocktail vaccines, our single-chain designs demonstrated similar or superior immunogenicity and protective efficacy. Importantly, the simplicity of the single-chain vaccines enhances both the controllability and accessibility of mpox vaccines. We believe these single-chain vaccines qualify as the next-generation mpox vaccines. National Natural Science Foundation of China and Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the CAS.

Optimizing public investments: A Sustainable Economic, Environmental, and Social Investment Multi-criteria Decision Model (SEESIM)

One of the most important aspects for the economic and social growth of a country is high efficiency of public investments. This imperative has never been more critical, especially in the context of Europe and Italy, where the integration of environmental, economic, and social goals is essential to address the multifaceted challenges of the 21st century. This research introduces the Sustainable Economic, Environmental, and Social Investment Model (SEESIM), a novel multi-criteria decision-making framework designed to ensure the sustainability of projects as their validity over time, especially from a National Recovery and Resilience Plan perspective. Utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SEESIM integrates environmental, economic, and social criteria as useful tool to evaluate a project in the post-funding phase, ensuring a balanced approach to efficiency and sustainability. The model is adaptable to various regional contexts, providing a transparent and replicable methodology for assessing the impacts and costs of public investments. An experimental scenario demonstrates SEESIM’s utility in guiding investment decisions, highlighting its potential to significantly enhance the effectiveness of public resources in achieving long-term sustainability goals. SEESIM represents a pivotal advancement in sustainable development strategies, offering a comprehensive tool for integrating multi-dimensional sustainability criteria into public investment decisions.