Twentieth Century Reanalysis Dataset Research Articles

Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.

Synoptic control over winter snowfall variability observed in a remote site of Apennine Mountains (Italy), 1884–2015

Abstract. This work presents a new, very long snowfall time series collected in a remote site of Italian Apennine mountains (Montevergine Observatory, 1280 m above sea level). After a careful check, based on quality control tests and homogenization procedures, the available data (i.e. daily height of new snow) have been aggregated over winter season (December–February) to study the long-term variability for the period 1884–2020. The main evidence emerging from this analysis lies in (i) the strong interannual variability of winter snowfall amounts, (ii) the absence of a relevant trend from the late 19th century to the mid-1970s, (iii) the strong reduction in the snowfall amount and frequency of occurrence from the mid-1970s to the end of the 1990s and (iv) the increase in average snowfall amount and frequency of occurrence in the past 20 years. Moreover, this study shed light on the relationship between the snowfall variability observed in Montevergine and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Six different synoptic types, describing the meteorological scenarios triggering the snow events in the study area, have been identified by means of a cluster analysis, using two essential atmospheric variables, the 500 hPa geopotential height and the sea level pressure (both retrieved from the third version of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset, which is available for the 1884–2015 period). Such patterns trace out scenarios characterized by the presence of a blocking high-pressure anomaly over Scandinavia or the North Atlantic and by a cold air outbreak involving both maritime and continental cold air masses. A further analysis demonstrates that the identified synoptic types are strongly related with different teleconnection patterns, i.e. the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Eastern Atlantic Western Russia (EAWR), the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND), that govern the European winter atmospheric variability. The relevant decline in snowfall frequency and amounts between the 1970s and 1990s can be mainly ascribed to the strong positive trend of AO and NAO indices, which determined, in turn, a decrease in the incidence of patterns associated with the advection, in central Mediterranean area, of moist and cold arctic maritime air masses. The recent increase in average snowfall amounts can be explained by the reverse trend of the AO index and by the prevalence of a neutral or negative EAWR pattern.

A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011

Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms−1), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term.

Factors Regulating the Multidecadal Changes in MJO Amplitude over the Twentieth Century

AbstractThis study examined multidecadal changes in the amplitude of the boreal-winter Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) over the twentieth century using two century-long reanalysis datasets (20CR and ERA-20C). Both revealed reasonable MJO variability compared to other state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets. We detected pronounced multidecadal variations along with an increasing trend in MJO amplitude during the period 1900–2009 in both datasets, although this linear trend was less significant in the reconstructed MJO index proposed by Oliver and Thompson. The two twentieth-century reanalysis datasets and the Oliver–Thompson MJO index consistently showed the intensified amplitude of MJO precipitation and circulation in the later decades (1970–99) compared to the earlier decades (1920–49). The most significant enhancement of MJO precipitation in the later decades appeared over the western Pacific warm pool. To understand the mechanisms controlling the changes in western Pacific MJO precipitation amplitude over the twentieth century, we diagnosed the moisture budget equation. The enhanced MJO precipitation variability in the later decades mainly came from increased moisture associated with a strengthened low-level convergence anomaly working on background mean moisture []. Further diagnosis showed that the effect of anomalous circulation (∇ ⋅ V′) change on the MJO precipitation amplitude change over the twentieth century was about an order larger than that of mean moisture () change, different from the mechanisms (i.e., increased gradient of ) responsible for the intensified MJO precipitation amplitude under future warmer climate. The enhanced MJO circulation anomalies during 1970–99 may be caused by an enhanced diabatic heating anomaly, offset partly by the increased mean static stability.

Capability of CAM5.1 in simulating maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa during boreal spring

This study classifies maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa into six groups and evaluates the capability of a global climate model (Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1; CAM) to simulate them. We analyzed 45-year (1961–2005) multi-ensemble (50 members) simulations from CAM and compared the results with those of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the twentieth Century Reanalysis data sets. Using Self Organizing Map algorithm to classify the spatial patterns of maximum air temperature during boreal spring, the study reveals the temperature patterns that CAM can simulate well and those the model struggles to reproduce. The results show that the best agreements between the composites of observation and CAM occur in the first temperature pattern group (which features positive temperatures anomalies over the Sahel) and Node 2 (which features near-normal temperature) pattern of the third group. CAM succeeded in reproducing some of the associated regional atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamic features in winds (horizontal and vertical), temperature fields, the cloud fractions, and the mean sea-level pressure. Although CAM struggles to capture the relationship between air temperature patterns and tele-connection indices during the boreal spring season over West Africa, it agrees with observations that temperature patterns over the sub-region cannot be associated with a single climate index. An ensemble member (SIM48) captures the inter-annual variation of the observed temperaure patterns with high sycronization (ɳ > 44%), much better than that of ensembles mean (ɳ < 30%). SIM48 also captures adequately four of the spatial patterns in comparison to three captured by the ensembles mean. This indicates that, for better seasonal forecasts and more reliable future climate projections, the practice whereby an ensemble mean is based on uniformly averaging the members rather than the performance of individual ensemble members needs to be reviewed. The results of the study may be used to improve the perfomance of CAM over West Africa, thereby strengthening the on-going efforts to include CAM as part of multi-model forecasting system over West Africa.

Summer Climate Change in the Midwest and Great Plains due to Agricultural Development during the Twentieth Century

AbstractAgricultural development is among the most significant forms of land-use change globally. In central North America it has consisted of cropland expansion in the early 1900s, yield intensification starting in the 1930s, and the development of large irrigated areas beginning in the 1950s. The area of this study encompasses the Midwest and Great Plains of the United States not only because significant agricultural change has occurred here but also because of the significant cooling (warming hole) there in the midcentury. This study investigates the relative contribution of agricultural development and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the observed patterns of regional changes in summer temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration using a long-term twentieth-century reanalysis dataset (CERA-20C) as boundary conditions for simulations with the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). Temperatures in the Great Plains (33°–43°N, 95°–109°W) and the Midwest (38°–48°N, 82°–109°W) would have been significantly higher in the second half of the twentieth century without the influence of agricultural development, largely due to an increase in evaporative cooling. The simulations of precipitation changes reflect a significant influence of global SST teleconnections at decadal time scales. Numerical simulations also demonstrate the competing effects of cropland expansion and yield intensification on shaping the observed pattern of increases in precipitation. Ultimately, a combination of agricultural development and decadal variability of global sea surface temperatures (SST) explains most of the observed variability of summer temperature and precipitation during the twentieth century over central North America.

An assessment of recent global atmospheric reanalyses for Antarctic near surface air temperature

The quality-controlled monthly air temperature records from 32 manned stations and 10 automatic weather stations are used to assess the performance of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the ECMWF “Interim” reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2 (MERRA-2), and four twentieth century reanalysis data sets (20CR, ERA-20C, CERA-20C and ERA-20CM). The performance of the datasets for Antarctic air temperature differs on different time scales and with glaciological regime. In general, these datasets have higher mean absolute error (MAE) in the winter months and lower MAE in the summer months. Overall, MERRA-2 presents highest performance for monthly air temperature values, with MAE <2 °C at any month. ERA-Interim best represents the inter-annual variability in monthly air temperature for the 1979–2010 period. In the 20th century datasets, changes in temperature prior to 1979 are more uncertain than variability after 1979. Furthermore, substantial inhomogeneities occur in the 20th century datasets, and as a result, their temperature trends are found to be largely spurious.

Evaluating the performance of five twentieth-century reanalysis datasets in reproducing the severe drought in northern China during the 1920s-1930s

Drought is the major natural disaster that affects northern China and has regional distinctions in duration, strength, and spatial range. Using five sets of twentieth-century reanalysis data, we investigated a decadal-scale extreme drought recorded in historical documents and tree-ring chronologies during late 1920s to early 1930s. The results indicated that the characteristics of drought were different in North China and the middle reach of the Yellow River. Drought in North China showed an interannual variation coinciding strongly with El Nino. For the middle reach of the Yellow River, a persistently dry period lasting from 1922 to 1932 was found, while the driest years were 1928 and 1929.The dataset ERA-20C had better performance than other reanalysis datasets in both regions. The drought that happened in North China during these years may have been primarily determined by ENSO. The joint impact of PDO and AMO may have been responsible for the decadal dry anomaly in the middle reach of the Yellow River.

Interdecadal Variability of the Warm Arctic and Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its North Atlantic Origin

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the origin of the interdecadal variability in the warm Arctic and cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, which is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function of surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the Eurasian continent in Northern Hemisphere winter, by analyzing the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. While previous studies highlight recent enhancement of the WACE pattern, ascribing it to anthropogenic warming, the authors found that the WACE pattern has experienced a seemingly periodic interdecadal variation over the twentieth century. This long-term variation in the Eurasian SAT is attributable to the altered coupling between the Siberian high (SH) and intraseasonal Rossby wave emanating from the North Atlantic, as the local wave branch interacts with the SH and consequentially enhances the continental temperature perturbation. It is further identified that these atmospheric circulation changes in Eurasia are largely controlled by the decadal amplitude modulation of the climatological stationary waves over the North Atlantic region. The altered decadal mean condition of stationary wave components brings changes in local baroclinicity and storm track activity over the North Atlantic, which jointly change the intraseasonal Rossby wave generation and propagation characteristics as well. With simple stationary wave model experiments, the authors confirm how the altered mean flow condition in the North Atlantic acts as a source for the growth of the Rossby wave that leads to the change in the downstream WACE pattern.

Representation of Extratropical Cyclones, Blocking Anticyclones, and Alpine Circulation Types in Multiple Reanalyses and Model Simulations

Abstract Atmospheric circulation types, blockings, and cyclones are central features of the extratropical flow and key to understanding the climate system. This study intercompares the representation of these features in 10 reanalyses and in an ensemble of 30 climate model simulations between 1980 and 2005. Both modern, full-input reanalyses and century-long, surface-input reanalyses are examined. Modern full-input reanalyses agree well on key statistics of blockings, cyclones, and circulation types. However, the intensity and depth of cyclones vary among them. Reanalyses with higher horizontal resolution show higher cyclone center densities and more intense cyclones. For blockings, no strict relationship is found between frequency or intensity and horizontal resolution. Full-input reanalyses contain more intense blocking, compared to surface-input reanalyses. Circulation-type classifications over central Europe show that both versions of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset contain more easterlies and fewer westerlies than any other reanalysis, owing to their high pressure bias over northeast Europe. The temporal correlation of annual circulation types over central Europe and blocking frequencies over the North Atlantic–European domain between reanalyses is high (around 0.8). The ensemble simulations capture the main characteristics of midlatitudinal atmospheric circulation. Circulation types of westerlies to northerlies over central Europe are overrepresented. There are too few blockings in the higher latitudes and an excess of cyclones in the midlatitudes. Other characteristics, such as blocking amplitude and cyclone intensity, are realistically represented, making the ensemble simulations a rich dataset to assess changes in climate variability.

Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability

Many studies have shown the importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to observed upward trends in the occurrences of temperature extremes over the U.S. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of internal variability in the climate system to these observed trends. Here we use daily maximum temperature time series from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset to identify trends in seasonal warm anomalies over the contiguous U.S. in the three most recent decades and explore their relationships to low-frequency modes of internal climate variability. The results reveal substantial upward trends in the frequency of warm anomalies in all seasons and in all regions of the U.S., except for portions of the Intermountain West in winter where significant downward trends occur. The strengths and regional coverage of the trends, however, differ considerably by season. These trends can be explained, in part, by the large-scale anomalous atmospheric circulations associated with low-frequency sea-surface temperature oscillations characterized by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The association between the upward trends in the seasonal warm anomalies and PDO and AMO is further confirmed by the century-long (1871–2012) Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset.

Assimilating Weather Data into a Digital Event Gazetteer of Airborne Parachute Operations during the French Indochina War

Abstract Modern datasets cataloging historical events, known as digital event gazetteers, feature spatiotemporal data regarding events that enable analysis through parameters including location and other descriptive information of those events. Weather and climate data represent two dimensions of spatiotemporal information, which can enhance understanding of historical events. A recently published digital event gazetteer of airborne parachute operations [opérations aéroportées (OAPs)] during and prior to the French Indochina War, spanning from 1945 to 1954, represents an opportunity to associate discrete historical events with weather information. This study outlines a methodology for assimilating weather data into the construct of a digital event gazetteer and then demonstrates example analyses of how the weather and climate conditions in Indochina may relate to OAPs during the war. A synoptic classification, utilizing the self-organizing maps procedure, is performed using daily mean sea level pressure data from 1945 to 2010, from a twentieth-century reanalysis dataset, to characterize weather patterns over the Indochina Peninsula. Since observations are sparse during the years of the conflict, the resulting weather patterns are associated with modern precipitation observations in the area, as a representation of wet and dry patterns during the war. The appropriate daily weather pattern is then assigned to each OAP in order to investigate its relationship with the weather and climate patterns of Indochina, including the influence of monsoon seasons, and how the resulting precipitation patterns affected combat operations across the theater. Additionally, specific OAPs of various missions are analyzed to investigate how weather patterns may have affected operation planning during the French Indochina War.

Long‐Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

AbstractThis study conducted an updated analysis of the long‐term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912–2014), 61 years (1954–2014), and 42 years (1973–2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4–2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from “city minus rural” methods showed that 30–45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an “observation minus reanalysis” method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25–30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3–11% when considering the century‐long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter‐term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century‐long warming trends could be much lower.

Impacts of Different Types of ENSO on the Interannual Seesaw between the Somali and the Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows

The impacts of different types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual negative correlation (seesaw) between the Somali cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and the Maritime Continent (MC) CEF during boreal summer (June–August) are investigated using the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C) dataset and numerical experiments with a global atmospheric model [the Met Office Unified Model global atmosphere, version 6 (UM-GA6)]. The results suggest that ENSO plays a prominent role in governing the CEF-seesaw relation. A high positive correlation (0.86) exists between the MC CEF and Niño-3.4 index and also in the case of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, central Pacific (CP) El Niño, EP La Niña, and CP La Niña events. In contrast, a negative correlation (−0.35) exists between the Somali CEF and Niño-3.4 index, and this negative relation is significant only in the EP El Niño years. Further, the variation of the MC CEF is highly correlated with the local north–south sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, while the variation of the Somali CEF displays little relation with the local SST gradient. The Somali CEF may be remotely influenced by ENSO. The model results confirm that the EP El Niño plays a major role in causing the weakened Somali CEF via modifying the Walker cell. However, the impact of the EP El Niño on the Somali CEF differs with different seasonal background. It is also found that the interannual CEF seesaw displays a multidecadal change before and after the 1950s, which is linked with the multidecadal strengthening of the intensity of the EP ENSO.

Influence of Climate Variability on Extreme Ocean Surface Wave Heights Assessed from ERA-Interim and ERA-20C

AbstractExtreme ocean surface wave heights significantly affect coastal structures and offshore activities and impact many vulnerable populations of low-lying islands. Therefore, better understanding of ocean wave height variability plays an important role in potentially reducing risk in such regions. In this study, global impacts of natural climate variability such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on extreme significant wave height (SWH) are analyzed using ERA-Interim (1980–2014) and ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C; 1952–2010) datasets for December–February (DJF). The nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis is used to determine the influence of natural climate variability on DJF maxima of SWH (Hmax), wind speed (Wmax), and mean sea level pressure gradient amplitude (Gmax). The major ENSO influence on Hmax is found over the northeastern North Pacific (NP), with increases during El Niño and decreases during La Niña, and its counter responses are observed in coastal regions of the western NP, which are consistently observed in both Wmax and Gmax responses. The Hmax response to the PDO occurs over similar regions in the NP as those associated with ENSO but with much weaker amplitude. Composite analysis of different ENSO and PDO phase combinations reveals stronger (weaker) influences when both variability modes are of the same (opposite) phase. Furthermore, significant NAO influence on Hmax, Wmax, and Gmax is observed throughout Icelandic and Azores regions in relation to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Overall, the response of extreme SWH to natural climate variability modes is consistent with seasonal mean responses.

Impacts of the Pacific–Japan and Circumglobal Teleconnection Patterns on the Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

Abstract Based on the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the dominant modes of interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are investigated through a multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis (MV-EOF). The first mode (EA1) is characterized by an anomalous cyclone centered over Taiwan and an anomalous anticyclone centered over the Bohai Sea. These phenomena are part of the meridional wave–like teleconnection pattern propagating poleward from the southern tropical western North Pacific (WNP), referred to as the interdecadal Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern. The interdecadal PJ pattern is driven by negative anomalous convective heating over the southern tropical WNP, which is associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the interdecadal Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM). The amplitude of the EA1 and its contribution to the total variance of the EASM decrease remarkably after the 1960s. The second MV-EOF mode (EA2) is characterized by cyclone anomalies extending from northeastern China to Japan, which are part of a circumglobal wave train. Given the spatial scale of the wave train in the zonal direction (wavenumber 5), as well as the fact that it possesses barotropic structures and propagates along the Northern Hemispheric jet stream, it is referred to herein as the interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. The interdecadal CGT pattern is associated with the forcing from the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Though the interdecadal PJ and CGT patterns are derived from the 20CR dataset, they are carefully verified through comparisons with various observational and reanalysis datasets from different perspectives.

South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

The warm (cold) phase of El Nino (La Nina) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901–2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Nino), ENSO(−) (La Nina) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951–2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

A First Evaluation of ERA-20CM over China

Abstract As an important global data resource, reanalysis is widely applied for climate impact studies of the past several decades. For the first time, monthly mean temperature and monthly total precipitation derived from the newest generation reanalysis product—the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis dataset (ERA-20CM)—is quantitatively evaluated based on probability density functions and 702 meteorological stations during the period of 1960–2009 across China. This study attempts to investigate how well each member ensemble prediction of ERA-20CM performs for different regions. Generally, all ensemble predictions in ERA-20CM are able to recreate the real conditions on a comparable level. More than 90% of the observed probability for temperature and more than 80% of the probabilities for precipitation could be captured by ERA-20CM over China. However, the performance changes significantly from region to region because of different topographical features and climate characteristics. The Tibetan Plateau is the most difficult to model for all member ensembles. The Jianhuai region is the area with the best performance for both temperature and precipitation. Although the best and worst ensembles for temperature and precipitation for each region were selected according to the skill scores, the differences among the 10-member ensemble predictions are negligible. This evaluation would be helpful for the potential users of reanalysis data, such as ERA-20CM for local climate impact assessments in China.

Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.

Large-scale atmospheric flow conditions and sea surface temperatures associated with hazardous winds in Switzerland

The link between hazardous winter winds in Switzerland and the large-scale atmospheric and sea surface temperature (SST) environment in the North Atlantic basin is examined. The analyses cover synoptic, interannual, and decadal time scales and are based on all ensemble members of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset for 1871–2008. On the synoptic time scale, the top ten high wind events in Switzerland are analysed; on longer time scales, the variability of the integrated winter wind loss potential (WLP) in Switzerland is examined. The top ten high wind events were associated with an eastward extension of the extratropical jet, enhanced cyclone frequencies over the North Sea and Scandinavia and reduced cyclone frequencies over the Mediterranean. The events were further accompanied by positive SST anomalies in the East Atlantic and the Mediterranean, and positive lower-tropospheric temperature and atmospheric moisture anomalies over Western and Central Europe. On interannual and decadal time scales, the winter WLP variability was associated with a large-scale atmospheric and SST pattern resembling a southeastward displacement of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. The correlation of the WLP with the NAO and the East Atlantic pattern was positive for most of the 1951–2008 period, and increased with time. The distinct eastward shift of the northern centre of action of the NAO at the end of the twentieth century may explain the improved correlation between the winter NAO variability and the WLP.