Turnout Rates Research Articles

Language as a Communication Tool for Maximum Participation in Municipalities: Lessons from Moqhaka Local Municipality, South Africa

This study attempts to accent the momentousness of public participation as an essential element of successful good local governance in the Republic of South Africa. Public participation is a fundamental dimension of democracy and an important factor in the deepening of democratic process. In this study, a total of 283 literate and semi-literate residents from the Moqhaka Local Municipality (comprising Kroonstad, Viljoenskroon and Steynsrus) participated in a purposive non-probability sampling exercise. Questionnaires were given to respondents following the population sizes, where Kroonstad (150 respondents) being the largest, followed by Viljoenskroon (80 respondents), and lastly, Steynsrus (53 respondents). The results showed overwhelmingly that both literate and semi-literate members of the Municipality strongly suggest that the use of African languages, in this case Sesotho is crucial for democracy to thrive. This paper intended to revitalise and encourage public participation at South African local municipalities, and to help minimise protest actions where residents constantly demand better service delivery. This has been true with the low voter turnout rate during the November 2021 local government elections. Local municipalities in South Africa are facing a huge task of advocating the involvement of communities and community organisations in local government. Language of communication is thus important in achieving this.

Socialization, citizenship and the electoral integration of refugees: evidence from Sweden

ABSTRACT This article seeks to fill a research gap by analysing refugees’ voting behavior, using Sweden (known for high refugee immigration, relatively liberal enfranchisement rules, and comprehensive electoral data) as a case study. Relying on register data on turnout from Swedish municipal elections, the article sheds new light on how the political integration of refugees varies. We test theories of resocialization and examine the extent to which a refugee’s political integration is affected by the surrounding environment, focusing on the political culture of the areas surrounding their neighborhoods. The results show that two major factors strongly affect refugee turnout rates: the acquisition of citizenship, and the degree of diversity of nationality in the districts in which refugees live, based on different experiences of “bonding” and “bridging” with the surrounding environment.

Who Pays the Price for the Cost of Voting

This paper will explore the combined effect of restrictive voting policies­ as measured by the Cost of Voting Index (COVI), a measure developed by political scientists associated with States United Democracy Center and Northern Illinois University—on voter turnout in Presidential elections, paying specific attention to the impact of such policies on minority populations. It will explore the state-level relationships between the cost associated with voting policies and the voter turnout rate of racial groups in presidential elections over the period of 1996 to 2016, examining the question of how voting rights policies influence the turnout rate of minority voters in U.S. presidential elections.

The relationship between the lifestyle health index and voter turnout during the 2020 United States presidential election in the context of regional cultures

ObjectivesThere are numerous population health challenges confronting the United States (U.S.), including the unhealthy lifestyle – chronic disease pandemics. However, the impact of unhealthy lifestyle behaviors and the increased prevalence of chronic diseases that result from them affect many facets of life outside of the health domain, and their scope remains under-appreciated. The current analysis contributes to addressing this knowledge gap by comparing the newly developed Lifestyle Health Index (LHI) to U.S. county-level voter turnout rates in the 2020 presidential election. Study designDescriptive, cross-sectional, retrospective analysis. MethodsCounty-level data on the LHI, percent voter turnout, and the American Nations regional cultures model schematic was used in the current analysis. ResultsPearson correlations between county-level LHI scores and sub scores and Democratic, Republican, and overall voter turnout were all statistically significant and of similar strength (r > 0.63, p < 0.001). All counties in the worst performing LHI quartile had a voter turnout <60 %. Higher LHIs were consistently assocaited with lower voter turnout across the regional cultures, although heterogeneity was evident across the American Nations. ConclusionsA large percentage of the U.S. population is afflicted with poor health, and unhealthy lifestyle behaviors are a primary driver. Poor health does not occur in a vacuum and impacts many other facets of an individual's life. The current study further demonstrates the potential detrimental impact of poor health on civic engagement, specifically participation in the electoral process (i.e, citizens' health may influence voter turnout). Health care professionals and institutions in the U.S. should uniformly embrace the recent policy brief by the American College of Physicians on participation in the electoral process for patients receiving care. This paradigm shift has the potential to substantially improve voter turnout during U.S. elections.

On the Internet, No One Knows You’re an Activist: Patterns of Participation and Response in an Online, Opt-in Survey Panel

Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in surveys of online respondents who participate absent random selection. Using an uncompensated, opt-in panel of 11,000 Pennsylvanians (2020–2022), we benchmark self-reports against vote histories, campaign contributions, election returns, and Census data. Ours is among the first such benchmarking exercises in more than a decade, a period when online survey research has transformed. It is also among the first analyzing a longitudinal panel. Our panelists are approximately balanced on partisanship; attrition is limited. Notably, respondents are very politically engaged, with high rates of turnout, campaign contributions, and rally attendance. Ethnic/racial minorities are under-represented. Political attitudes show high over-time stability, and an experiment uncovers few partisan differences in response rates. Such survey samples are cost-effective ways to track the views of highly engaged citizens over time, but less engaged citizens prove hard to recruit, even with supplemental efforts. Survey participation is itself a political behavior.

Impacts of Cropland Utilization Patterns on the Sustainable Use Efficiency of Cropland Based on the Human–Land Perspective

Confronted with China’s burgeoning population and finite arable land resources, the enhancement of sustainable arable land efficiency is of paramount importance. This study, grounded in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), introduces a robust framework for assessing sustainable arable land use. Utilizing the Sustainable Utilization of Arable Land (SUA) indicator system, the DGA–Super-SBM model, the Malmquist–Luenberger production index, and the TO–Fisher–OSM algorithm, we evaluated the efficiency of sustainable utilization of arable land (ESUA) in 52 prefecture-level cities within China’s major grain-producing regions of the Yellow and Huaihai Seas. We analyzed the cropland utilization patterns from 2010 to 2020, examining the influence of these patterns on sustainable utilization efficiency. Our findings indicate that between 2010 and 2020, the arable land usage in these regions exhibited minimal transformation, primarily shifting towards construction land and conversely from grassland and water systems. Notably, the ESUA of arable land demonstrated an upward trend, characterized by pronounced spatial clustering, enduring high efficiency in the northern regions, and a significant surge in the southern sectors. The declining ESUA (D-ESUA) trend was general but increased in half of the cities. The change in the center of gravity of ESUA correlated with the north–south movement of the proportion of cultivated land area, the turn-in rate, and the turn-out rate, yet moved in the opposite direction to that of cultivated land density and yield per unit area. Variables such as the replanting index, cropland density, yield per unit area, and cropland turn-in rate significantly affected ESUA. These findings offer a scientific basis and decision-making support for optimizing the utilization pattern of arable land and achieving a rational allocation of arable land resources.

The Implementation of Artificial Intelligence in Reviving the Voter Turnout Rates Among the Youth in Japan

This paper investigates the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in enhancing voter turnout rates among the Japanese youth. It highlights the decline in youth participation in elections and suggests leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) and other forms of AI to enhance existing technologies such as Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) to engage and educate young voters. By tailoring political content to individual interests and simplifying complex policy discussions, AI can make political participation more accessible and relevant to the youth. The paper also addresses potential risks related to privacy and ethical considerations in deploying AI tools in electoral processes. It concludes that AI, if appropriately governed, offers a promising avenue to revitalize democratic engagement among young Japanese voters, thereby ensuring their voices contribute to shaping the nation's future.

Causes And Solutions for Low Turnout Rates in Chinese Local Elections: From A Plebeian Perspective

There have been ample academic efforts discussing prospects of liberalizing the authoritarian regime in China, but most of them primarily addressed possible institutional reforms by the party and to some extent overlooked importance of the mass. Therefore, this article attempts to identify factors that dissuade or refrain Chinese citizens from voting in local elections and devise corresponding solutions, for their political enthusiasm to be improved independently of state sanctions, while the finding may provide a novel theory regarding weak correlation between the level of political freedom and turnout rate in liberal democracies. By considering subjects as economic agents in cost-benefit analysis, the combination of underestimated benefits and overestimated costs of voting is highlighted as one fundamental reason for non-voting, which comprises of antiquated cultural norms, aloof social relations and inappropriately handled class struggles. In response to phenomenon of apoliticism, political cynicism or political inactiveness, this paper suggests eligible voters to keenly defend their interests, for instance studying publicized government information, participating in trade unions and respecting their suffrage, as the prerequisite for becoming genuinely and consistently active in political affairs.

The Relationship Between Principals’ Leadership Practices and Students’ Learning Outcomes From a Distributed Perspective

There is little empirical evidence that convinces the effectiveness of distributed leadership in contemporary educational research. Thus, many distinguished scholars suggest its’ statistical examination. Considering this need, the primary purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of principals’ distributed leadership practices on students’ learning outcomes at Technical and Vocational Education Training schools in Eritrea. The study was conducted based on quantitative design and applied structural equation modelling. A sample of six hundred and three students was employed. The researcher developed the structural equation model to test a model that hypothesized the relationship between the major variables using path analysis. The study results demonstrate that the principals’ distributed leadership practice has a direct and significant (.883, p&lt;.001) effect on students’ learning outcomes keeping other things constant. The strongest predictor of students’ learning outcomes was capacity building, given it has the largest path coefficient (β=.346). Moreover, findings show gender disparity among the respondents and in terms of turnout rate; nevertheless, it was not statistically significant (p&lt;.001). One of the study’s contributions is that it developed and assessed the validity of the principals’ distributed leadership practice scale for Eritrea’s TVET schools through CFA model. The study offered basic evidence that distributed type of leadership is a significant predictor of learning outcomes by exploring six factors of leadership practices, which shows a promising area for practice and future studies.

ANOMALI DEMOKRASI INDONESIA: Kontroversi Peningkatan Partisipasi Politik pada Pemilihan Kepala Daerah dalam masa Pandemi Covid-19

This study discusses the implementation of regional head elections in Indonesia which took place during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study focuses on explaining the high level of voter turnout when Covid-19 hit Indonesia in 2020 which exceeded the turnout rate in normal situations and contrary to the trend of declining global voter turnout. This research uses descriptive qualitative methods with secondary data obtained from official government institutions (especially the election commission and Ministry of Health), mass media both newspapers and other social media, as well as the results of research conducted by other researchers. The results showed that the high level of voter turnout during the Covid-19 pandemic was an anomaly of democracy in the midst of activity restrictions and the trend of declining global voter turnout. The high voter turnout during the Covid-19 pandemic was inversely proportional to the economic downturn and public confidence in government. This study found that the main factor for increasing voter turnout during the Covid-19 pandemic was the massive mobilization of social assistance funds from the government. Theoretically, this is a synthesis of the mobilization model and the general incentives model of participation in a pragmatic context.

The Implementation of Artificial Intelligence in Reviving the Voter Turnout Rates Among the Youth in Japan

The Implementation of Artificial Intelligence in Reviving the Voter Turnout Rates Among the Youth in Japan

Expanded and intensified population-based screening and diagnosis of hypertension and diabetes mellitus among rural adults in Northern India: An implementation research in routine programmatic setting

ABSTRACT Background: The National Noncommunicable Disease Program of India currently recommends population-based NCD screening (PBS) among people aged ≥30 years. The low turnaround for diagnosis confirmation is a consistent issue the program has faced since its launch. The current study assessed an expanded PBS (including people 18–29 years) and intensified (home-based) diagnosis confirmation strategy for hypertension (HT) and diabetes mellitus (DM) in a routine programmatic setting. Materials and Methods: This implementation research was conducted among all people aged ≥18 years in a rural health block in northern India. The eligible population was screened for HT and DM (using random blood sugar), and the screen positives were asked to visit a nearby public health facility (preferably) for diagnosis. An intensified home-based diagnosis confirmation was offered to screen positives who did not visit the health facility for diagnosis confirmation. Results: Of the 2004 participants screened, 1149 (57.3%) were female and 586 (28.2%) were aged 18–29 years. A total of 353 (20.2%) and 200 (10.9%) were found newly screened positive for HT and DM, respectively. The turnout rate for facility-based confirmation ranged from 69.6% to 91.2%. The prevalence of HT and DM in people aged 18–29 years and ≥30 years was 6.1% and 2.9% and 30.0% and 26.2%, respectively. The expanded screening and intensified home-based diagnosis confirmation strategies yielded an additional 12.8% HT and 24.1% DM among the total new cases detected. Conclusion: An expanded PBS and intensified diagnosis confirmation is feasible in a programmatic setting and has yielded additional new cases. Cost effectiveness of the above strategy must be assessed in future studies. Further, in-depth understanding of the risk perception, and potential cultural, social, and health system factors for improving the uptake of confirmatory tests is the need of the hour.

Ensuring Equitable Access to Participation in the Electoral Process: A Policy Brief From the American College of Physicians.

During the past 2 decades, voter turnout in U.S. presidential elections has ranged from 51.7% to 66.9% of the eligible population. Low voter turnout rates and inequitable electoral institutions, such as gerrymandered districts, can skew policy decisions toward the preferences of a smaller group and further exclude individuals and communities who have been historically marginalized and excluded from decision-making processes. Voting and health are directly connected through the institution of policies by ballot initiative and the election of officials who incorporate health into their platforms. They are also indirectly connected, as civic participation connects persons to their community and empowers them with agency in decision making. In this position paper, the American College of Physicians seeks to inform physicians, medical students, and other health care professionals on the links between electoral processes and health; encourage civic participation; and offer policy recommendations to support safe and equitable access to electoral participation to advance health equity for both patients and health care professionals.

Granting Immigrants the Right to Vote in National Elections: Empirical Evidence from Swedish Administrative Data

AbstractFaced with rising levels of cross-border migration, many countries have extended local voting rights to non-citizen residents. However, empirical evidence indicates that voter turnout among non-naturalized immigrants is lower when compared to citizens. This raises the question of how to explain this difference. A common answer is that the low turnout rates of non-citizen residents are primarily due to the socio-economic composition of this group and the challenges involved in adapting to a new political system. An alternative but less discussed possibility is that the low turnout concerns the nature of the elections. Hence, we examine whether the turnout of non-citizens is hampered because they are only allowed to partake in local elections. Based on a regression discontinuity design (RDD) using Swedish administrative data, we find that turnout could increase by 10–20 percentage points if the voting rights of non-citizens were extended to the national level.

The Origin of Electoral Absenteeism in Early Italy: New Evidence to Explain North–South Diverging Trends

Abstract Low turnout rates with high geographical disparities characterized Italian national elections in the first six decades after the country’s founding in 1861. Historians have largely overlooked these regional voting differences and their potential economic implications. A multiple-group interrupted time series analysis regression model demonstrates distinct electoral trends between the Center-North and the South, coinciding with electoral reforms in 1894 that affected electoral competition, particularly in the South. Furthermore, a random effect panel regression model reveals determinants of regional abstention rates, which indicate that different factors influenced abstention rates in the Center-North than in the South, emphasizing the relevance of political factors in the creation and widening of regional divergences in Italy.

Party Realignment, Education, and the Turnout Advantage: Revisiting the Partisan Effect of Turnout

Party realignment is occurring along the lines of education in the United States. As college-educated voters increasingly align with the Democratic Party, it is necessary to revisit the partisan effect of turnout. We predict that, since 2016, the Democratic Party no longer benefits from higher turnout. Using validated voter turnout from the Cooperative Election Study (CES), we simulate election results across turnout rates for the 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections. Our findings show that increases in turnout greatly benefit the Democratic Party in the pre-Trump era. However, this pattern has drastically changed. In 2016, 2018, and 2020, the Democratic Party sees a much smaller gain in vote share as simulated turnout increases, but also a large vote share advantage when voter turnout is extremely low. These results indicate that continued party realignment along the lines of education could lead to a persistent reversal in the expected partisan effect of turnout—where Democrats perform better in low-turnout local or primary elections and Republicans perform better in high-turnout general elections.

Precarious work and challenger parties: how precarity influenced vote choice in the 2018 Italian election

AbstractAcross Western European democracies, the last 20 years have seen a growth of precarious employment and the rise of challenger parties. Both trends are especially marked in Italy, where occupational insecurity has become the norm and over half of the electorate has turned to a challenger party. In this article, I investigate the relationship between these two phenomena, addressing the question of whether and how precarity in the labor market influenced vote choice in the 2018 general election. First, I provide descriptive evidence that the Italian labor market shifted from dualism to generalized precarization. Second, I empirically investigate the relationship between precarity and voting in this context. The results show that the perception of precarity, not formal employment status, influenced voting behavior: it fostered participation, increased support for the Five Star Movement, and decreased support for the Democratic Party. These findings challenge core assumptions in the literature, first and foremost about precarious workers' low turnout rate, difficult mobilization, and consequent political irrelevance. They indicate that the electoral weight of precarious workers has increased, and their representation can be electorally beneficial.

Free public transit and voter turnout

Transportation costs are an under-studied barrier to political participation. In many elections worldwide, subsidies to voter transportation are already provided or are under discussion. However, these types of incentives have not been rigorously evaluated. Here we examine possibly the world's largest-ever intervention to lower these costs, the adoption of a fare-free public transit policy in Brazil during the 2022 national election, when about half of Brazilian voters were granted the right to use public transit for free on election days. However, while some cities adopted the benefit for both rounds of the election, others adopted it only for the second round. Using an event study design, we exploit this difference in adoption timing to examine the policy's causal impact on voter turnout rates and human mobility levels. We find that fare-free transit increased ridership between 7.2% and 17.5% on election days, however, we estimate a precise and robust null effect of the policy on voter turnout (Coef. −0.03p.p. with standard error of 0.22p.p.). Our results illustrate that monetary transport costs may not always be a critical factor behind non-participation. Although reducing transportation costs improves access to polling places, we show that even a full transit subsidy may not be sufficient to increase voter turnout.

Crowded Out: The Effects of Concurrent Elections on Political Engagement, Candidate Evaluation, and Campaign Learning in the United States

ABSTRACT Holding multiple elections simultaneously, also known as concurrent elections, is well known to benefit electoral systems by increasing the rate of voter turnout. Essentially, the public becomes more willing to participate in voting because they can vote for more offices, and more prominent offices, at once and thus have a greater influence upon the functioning of government in a more efficient manner. However, very little is known about what happens with the electorate outside of the simple increase in voting. Just because citizens choose to vote, it does not mean that they actually pay attention to all the campaigns or feel that their participation is valuable. Using 20 years of American National Election Study survey data, and focusing primarily on the relatively low-salience House of Representatives, this paper examines the psychological effects of concurrent elections in the United States. It concludes that, while concurrent elections do boost turnout, lower-salience candidates receive less attention during concurrent elections, leading the public to rate them more negatively and know less about them. Higher-salience office candidates avoid these negative consequences. Thus there is a trade-off with concurrent elections – more people tend to vote when multiple offices are contested simultaneously but those voters also tend to focus on the higher offices and ignore the bottom of the ballot.

Temporal multicriteria evaluation of the categories proposed by the ‘Democracy Index’ of the countries: a perspective based on the DARIA-TOPSIS Method

This article analyzes the criteria of the ‘Democracy Index’ in countries, from 2017-2022, published by ‘The Economist’, aiming for an objective and comparative evaluation using the DARIA-TOPSIS method for temporal multicriteria assessment. The DARIA-TOPSIS method identified that among the top five ranked countries, the four most democratic ones are Nordic countries, with only New Zealand included in third place. Furthermore, the social and institutional trust, crucial for citizen participation observed in C_3 (Political Participation), reflects the high quality of democracy. These countries consistently exhibit high voter turnout rates and foster an active civil society culture in political decisions, as identified in C_1 (Electoral Process and Pluralism). Moreover, the variability of utility function values was better captured by the DARIA-TOPSIS method compared to a ranking based on average performance values (TOPSIS). However, the final order obtained by the methods generally coincides with or is very close.