Levels Of Turnout Research Articles

Влияние явки избирателей на легитимность президентских выборов в мире

This paper reveals the impact of voter turnout on the legitimacy of presidential elections based on the materials of 20 largest states holding such elections in terms of the number of voters. In March 2024, presidential elections were held in Russia and in November elections are scheduled in the United States, the outcome of which will have an impact on the domestic and foreign policies of these states. The author has tested the hypothesis that in most cases, for the existing political regime in countries where subject and patriarchal political cultures are widespread, high voter turnout acts as a donor of legitimacy, therefore, the authorities seek to involve the maximum number of voters in conventional political participation in presidential elections and ensure victory for the person holding the office of president (incumbent). In countries where the political culture of participation has become more widespread, the competition of strong candidates is a source of legitimacy for political regimes that do not seek to mobilize all voters to participate in presidential elections and are most often unable to ensure the re-election of the incumbent. Based on the analysis of electoral statistics of presidential elections in the studied states, it was concluded that high electoral activity in countries with a predominance of national and patriarchal political cultures, even if there is no real competition between candidates, but with broad public recognition of the existing political regime, ensures the legitimacy of elections. In countries where political culture of participation has become more widespread, high turnout is a consequence of interest in elections, and not the result of the mobilization of the electorate by the political regime. Examples are Turkey and France, where the last presidential elections were held with high turnout and competition between the two most popular candidates; low electoral activity in the presidential elections is a prerequisite for the subsequent political crisis and dismantling of the political regime (Afghanistan, Nigeria). Acceptable level of voter turnout in the presidential elections, which can act as an indicator of their legitimacy, is about 60–66%.

Insecurity and Voter Turnout in Governorship Elections in Rivers State, Nigeria

Elections (especially Governorship elections) in Rivers State since 1999 have continued to experience declining curve of voter turnout. Therefore, this study interrogated the effect of insecurity on voter turnout in Rivers State gubernatorial elections from 1999 to 2023. The specific objectives of the study were to; examine the state of insecurity during elections and assess the impact of insecurity on the conduct of elections in Rivers State since 1999. The ‘Structural Functionalism’ theoretical framework was employed in analysing the variables (insecurity, voter turnout, and elections) contained in this work. The qualitative research design method was employed in this paper involving the use of secondary sources of data collection while graphs, charts, simple percentages and tables were used in analysing the generated data. The major research findings were that; elections in Rivers State since 1999 have been characterized by insecurity, declining level of voter turnout due to insecurity in Rivers State; and election-related insecurity is usually caused by desperate members of the political class in connivance with both the State and non-state security actors. In addressing this, the study proposed a number of recommendations including the following; establishment of election offences commission, scaling up of anti-electoral violence advocacy, de-registration of perpetuators of elections insecurity in the voters’ register, and life ban on convicts from political participation, among others.

ANOMALI DEMOKRASI INDONESIA: Kontroversi Peningkatan Partisipasi Politik pada Pemilihan Kepala Daerah dalam masa Pandemi Covid-19

This study discusses the implementation of regional head elections in Indonesia which took place during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study focuses on explaining the high level of voter turnout when Covid-19 hit Indonesia in 2020 which exceeded the turnout rate in normal situations and contrary to the trend of declining global voter turnout. This research uses descriptive qualitative methods with secondary data obtained from official government institutions (especially the election commission and Ministry of Health), mass media both newspapers and other social media, as well as the results of research conducted by other researchers. The results showed that the high level of voter turnout during the Covid-19 pandemic was an anomaly of democracy in the midst of activity restrictions and the trend of declining global voter turnout. The high voter turnout during the Covid-19 pandemic was inversely proportional to the economic downturn and public confidence in government. This study found that the main factor for increasing voter turnout during the Covid-19 pandemic was the massive mobilization of social assistance funds from the government. Theoretically, this is a synthesis of the mobilization model and the general incentives model of participation in a pragmatic context.

Minority bonding to political self-efficacy: a case study on bonding and bridging social capital and political self-efficacy among adolescents in Finland

While social capital is claimed to predict, for example, a higher level of trust, better health, and higher voter turnout, its uneven distribution causes concern in society. In this study, we examine which aspects of social capital are connected to political self-efficacy, which is an important predictor of political participation and associated with for example political interest. According to our knowledge, there is a research gap both in terms of studies focusing on analyzing the effect of minority status on political self-efficacy via social capital and studies analyzing these patterns among adolescents living their formative years. In this article we test this mediating effect of social capital among majority and minority adolescents since minorities can be expected to have relatively more bonding social capital and less bridging social capital. In the Finnish context, this is particularly interesting since the Swedish-speaking minority is praised for its high level of social capital that is suggested to explain a lot of its success ranging from better health to a higher turnout compared with the majority. Analyzing a nationwide dataset of 15–16-year-old students (N = 5,189) completing their final year of comprehensive education in Finland in a multilevel structural equation model, we discover that belonging to the Swedish-speaking minority seems to strengthen bonding social capital (social networks, and community). The civic participation, community, and social networks aspects of social capital are positively connected to the level of political self-efficacy, while generalized trust has no connection to it. All these findings indicate that societies should take measures to strengthen bridging and bonding social capital among both adolescents and minorities.

A Few Comments on “Measures to Increase Turnout” Introduced by the Act of January 26, 2023 Amending the Electoral Code and Certain Other Acts

The extensive amendment to the Electoral Code made by the Act of January 26, 2023 – among other solutions – introduced instruments to facilitate voters’ access to polling stations, increasing the turnout level. The aim of the article is to present the adopted solutions and their assessment, made on the background of the legislative process accompanying the adoption of the act. The conducted analysis allows to assume that the discussed solutions do not take into account the interests of all entitled persons to an equal extent, ignore the consistently reported proposals of changes affecting the increase in attendance and imply organizational difficulties due to the moment of their introduction.

Voter Behavior in Regional Head Elections During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Data and Analysis

This research was conducted to analyze how voters behave in regional head elections in Indonesia, during the Covid-19 pandemic. The method used in this research is descriptive qualitative. Data collection was carried out by means of in-depth interviews with various informants who were directly involved in the election of regional heads, election committees, election supervisors and voters. In addition, data collection was also carried out by tracing documents relevant to the research topic, both documents originating from the election committee and supervisors. From the research that has been done, it has been revealed that the voters in the regional head election which took place in Sumenep Regency, Indonesia in 2020 behaved pragmatically and permissively towards money politics. This was caused by the poor economic conditions of voters, during the Covid-19 pandemic. This pragmatic behavior also encourages their presence to choose a pair of candidates who give money. Thus, the level of voter turnout and participation in regional head elections is higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic. This research has limitations in the scope of research, which is only carried out in Sumenep Regency, Indonesia in 2020, so it cannot represent Indonesian society in general.

TIPE PARTISIPASI POLITIK PEREMPUAN PADA PEMILIHAN LEGISLATIF TAHUN 2019 DI KABUPATEN BOMBANA

The role of women in politics in almost all countries experiences obstacles, especially in developing countries, with both structural and cultural constraints. The structural constraints referred to are the level of education, economy, work of housewives, child care, and kitchen work. This work is identified as a second-class job that is difficult to balance with men when it comes to involvement in the public sector. While cultural constraints are cultural factors that place women in a private space where they have to live at home, women are always perceived as serving the family. Bombana District is one of the areas with a high level of female voter turnout and abstention for female voters. This study aims to determine the type of female voter participation in the 2019 legislative elections in Bombana District. The method used in this research is descriptive qualitative. The types and sources of data in this study are using primary data and secondary data with observation data collection techniques, interviews, and documentation. The results of this study indicate that the type of participation of female voters in the 2019 legislative elections in Bombana uses two types of participation, namely the type of passive participation and the type of golput participation.

GAGASAN PENATAAN PILKADA CALON TUNGGAL

The existence of single candidate in the 2015-2020 simultaneous Local Election (Pilkada) period tends to dramatically increase along with the rise of the political parties coalition supporting single candidate, thus closing the opportunity for other candidates to advance through a political party. In the practice of organizing single-candidate elections, several cases have been exposed to the public, which suggests that there were problems before the single candidate was decided. This study describes the various phenomena that arise in the organization of single-candidate elections and formulates appropriate structuring strategies. This research was normative and sociological legal research. Normatively using a statute approach and case approach, while sociologically using a qualitative approach. Several phenomena were found, namely; the increasing support of political parties for single candidate is due to the pragmatic political parties that are oriented towards victory and instant profit (political dowry), resulting in a large financial burden that must be prepared by prospective candidates. This condition is exceptionally favorable for candidates with sufficient financial capabilities which then motivates political parties to smooth the victory. Appropriate structuring measures are needed, including; first, the need to reduce the nomination threshold for political parties. Second, organizing party coalitions both related to the time of formation and the maximum limit of the coalition, and third, tightening the eligibility requirements for single candidate by considering the level of voter turnout.

An untapped coalition: partisanship and political participation among people with disabilities

ABSTRACT The disability politics literature has found that having a disability significantly decreases an individual’s voting propensity. Using data from the 2020 American National Election Study, the present paper explores several mechanisms driving such depressed levels of voter turnout. Considering the central role of partisanship in American political behavior, we investigate the partisan ties, ideological preferences, and vote choice of individuals reporting a disability. We also consider their overall experiences with the political system, with particular emphasis on political knowledge, political interest, and attitudes towards voting. Data suggest that those reporting a disability do not differ significantly from those not reporting a disability in terms of party affiliation, ideological orientation, and vote choice. Although individuals with disabilities exhibited high levels of political interest in 2020, they were no more or less likely to participate in alternative forms of political engagement, such as activism online. One noteworthy finding demonstrated in our analyses is that those with disabilities largely tend to view voting as a choice, rather than a duty. Our conclusion places these findings into the context of partisan coalition building and voter mobilization, providing several suggestions for how disability scholars might continue to advance understanding of this large, growing voting bloc.

Identifying the Effect of Election Closeness on Voter Turnout: Evidence from Swiss Referenda

Abstract We provide evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout, exploiting the precise day-level timing of the release of Swiss national poll results for high-stakes federal referenda, and a novel dataset on daily mail-in voting for the canton of Geneva. Using an event study design, we find that the release of a closer poll causes voter turnout to sharply rise immediately after poll release, with no differential pre-release turnout levels or trends. We provide evidence that polls affect turnout by providing information shaping beliefs about closeness. The effects of close polls are the largest where newspapers report on them most; and, the introduction of polls had significantly larger effects in politically unrepresentative municipalities, where locally available signals of closeness are less correlated with national closeness. We then provide evidence that the effect of close polls is heterogeneous, with an asymmetric effect leading to a higher vote share for the underdog. The effect sizes we estimate are large enough to flip high-stakes election outcomes under plausible counterfactual scenarios.

Critical factors influencing information disclosure in public organisations

Open government initiatives around the world and the passage of freedom of information laws are opening public organisations through information disclosure to ensure transparency and encourage citizen participation and engagement. At the municipal level, social, economic, and political factors are found to account for this trend. However, the findings on this issue are inconclusive and may differ from country to country. This paper contributes to this discussion by analysing a unitary country where the same set of laws and rules governs the constituent municipalities. It seeks to identify critical factors that affect the disclosure of municipal information. For this purpose, a longitudinal study was carried out over a period of 4 years using panel data methodology. The main conclusions seem to point to municipalities’ intention to increase the dissemination of information to reduce low levels of voter turnout and increase civic involvement and political participation. Municipalities governed by leftist parties and those that have high indebtedness are most likely to disclose information. Additionally, internet access has created new opportunities for citizens to access information, which exerts pressure for greater dissemination of information by municipalities. These findings are important to practitioners because they indicate the need to improve citizens’ access to the Internet and maintain information disclosure strategies beyond election periods.

DIRECTIONS FOR INNOVATIVE ANALYTICAL AND STATISTICAL TECHNOLOGIES IMPLEMENTATION AS A TOOL FOR CORRUPTION COUNTERACTION IN THE STATE

The article is dedicated to the problem of implementing innovative analytical and statistical technologies as a tool to counteract corruption in the state. Innovative analytical and statistical technologies are broadly defined as a set of methods and tools based on the use of mathematical and statistical methods of data analysis to detect useful dependencies and regularities in data, improve decision-making efficiency, and detect anomalies in various fields of activity. More narrowly, they are defined as the process of using the most advanced data analysis methods to detect complex dependencies and useful regularities in data. Based on the content analysis of thematic publications, 4 directions were identified: 1) the direction of developing methodological tools; 2) the direction of analyzing secondary sociological data; 3) the direction of creating automated systems for natural language analysis and visualization of spatial data; 4) the direction of implementing machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies for identifying subjects of corruption relations and/or obtaining statistically substantiated confirmations of the presence/absence of corruption. It is determined that the most significant direction is practice-oriented studies, where testing of the relevant theoretical models and methodological tools takes place, and precedents are created for the use of the results of analytical and statistical studies as part of the evidence base of fraud or corruption. It is determined that a direct example of applying innovative analytical and statistical technologies as a tool for corruption counteraction from a political science perspective is electoral forensics. Within electoral forensics, two groups of methods are distinguished. The first group originates from the theory of numbers and refers to the frequency characteristics of numerical data of electoral statistics. The second group of methods relies on the search for anomalies in the relationships between different parameters of the electoral process, for example, turnout level and winning candidate support level. The main criterion used to detect electoral corruption is the discrepancy between the real (documented) election results and the normative (model) ones.

Participatory Budgets in Poland and Germany: Towards a Single Model?

Theoretical background: Participatory budgets (PBs) have become a widely known innovation used to engage citizens in policymaking. Since 2011, citizens in Polish municipalities can decide on how a portion of local budget can be spent. In Germany, PBs originally served the purpose of getting feedback from citizens in the context of fiscal strains. However, since about 2015, German PBs are increasingly taking after the model established in Poland, establishing fixed pools of funds. Does it present a case of between-country convergence in the functionalities of PBs and their quality? So far, such comparative questions remained mostly unanswered in the field of PB-related studies. Purpose of the article: The aim of the paper was to investigate this possibility of convergence in PB-quality by comparing the state of and changes in the quality of PBs with fixed funds between Poland and Germany. To evaluate the quality and scope of functionality of PBs, the amount of planned PB-funds per capita and participation rates (voter turnout levels) were inspected. Two research hypotheses were formulated. The first one stipulates a higher performance level of Polish PBs by the two criteria, across a variety of municipality types. The second hypothesis posits that the differences in the quality of PBs tend to diminish over time, as the latest to innovate launch their first experiments. Research methods: Works on the diffusion of PBs in both countries were reviewed to provide background for the study. Two datasets were constructed containing data on the two measures of PB-quality, the population size, and the status of innovator. The data were first compared graphically. In a later step, statistical methods were applied, including variance analysis for the two dependent variables related to PB-quality at once (MANOVA) and for each of them separately (ANOVA). Results of the study were presented and discussed in the context of interactions between innovators and potential adopters in social networks, as well as political agendas in the two countries of interest. Main findings: Research findings allowed to confirm the research hypotheses. PBs in both countries have been mostly simple innovations of limited quality, but those in Poland tended to perform better, judged by the two chosen criteria. The gap, especially for PB-funds, is closing, but that does not mean that in the course of innovators’ and regulators’ actions a unified innovation model has emerged. PBs in both countries utilize their functionalities in diverse ways, based on specific experiences and traditions in policymaking. Thus, PBs in Poland and Germany have different trajectories of development with fixed pools of funds as the simplistic innovation core that makes them highly adaptable in different policy contexts.

The Legislature and Political Development: A Comparison between Korea and Mongolia

In a democratic system, parliament is, on one hand, a representative institution of the people and, on the other hand, exists with a status of a political institution as a policy-making and law-making body. It is guaranteed by the Constitution. In addition legislature serves for political systems actively and becomes its dynamic expression. Parliamentary institution plays a tremendous role in and influences heavily on the political development. In this work, first, the author will consider general overview of constitutional systems of two countries. Then the author will discuss about the role and the status of parliament in the political system from their historical and functional sides, providing it with some patterns of the legislative institution. Moreover, electoral system and last election results, political parties’ seat ratio in parliament and the level of the voter turnout or citizen participation in the elections will be introduced here as well. Finally, it will cover the issues of the legislature’s effects in the political development and the process of strengthening of democracy and, furthermore, what potentials it will contain in further democratic process.

Democratic Backsliding, Conflict, and Partisan Mobilisation of Ethnic Groups: Local Government Control and Electoral Participation in Turkey

ABSTRACT Partisan mobilisation is critical for constituencies with low premobilisation participation, even in countries like Turkey with generally high levels of electoral turnout. We argue that parties appealing to ethnic minority constituencies benefit disproportionately from the symbolic and material resources that local government control provides. Central government’s exceptional decisions to intervene can, however, curtail access to these resources and affect electoral politics. Focusing on three Turkish elections and a referendum in 2015–2018, the article analyses how the political context of democratic backsliding and conflict affected the pro-Kurdish party’s control of municipalities, their mobilisation capacity, and hence turnout. Specifically, the previously higher rate of turnout in pro-Kurdish party-controlled municipalities compared to other municipalities disappeared following the elected mayors’ replacement by appointed trustees.

The link between subjective well-being and electoral participation: Cross-national perspective

The article examines the relationship between subjective well-being and elections turnout. The purpose of the article is to determine how subjective well-being affects turnout. To achieve the purpose, the link between subjective well-being and electoral participation should be studied along with the influence that political regime has on this link. The majority of previous research papers indicate that there is a positive relationship between the studied variables. Most of these studies were based on data from specific democratic countries. Little attention has been paid to cross-national comparison and to countries with less developed democratic institutions. According to the theory of retrospective voting, voters tend to use elections to reward or punish the incumbent. Thus, it can be hypothesized that subjective well-being increases the likelihood to participate in elections, and that the democratic context strengthens the link between subjective well-being and voters turnout. The joined dataset of the European Social Survey and World Values Survey is used for the empirical analysis. Multilevel binary logistic regression is used as the main method of analysis. The results of the study show a statistically significant relationship between the high level of subjective well-being and voter turnout. People with higher levels of subjective well-being are more likely to vote in elections. In democratic countries, this relationship is stronger. These findings support the conclusions of previous research and confirm a modified version of the retrospective voting theory, which uses subjective well-being as a predictor of electoral behavior.

Do Leader Evaluations (De)Mobilize Voter Turnout? Lessons From Presidential Elections in the United States

Do evaluations of presidential candidates in the US affect the level of voter turnout? Voters’ affections towards presidential candidates, we contend, can either stimulate or inhibit voter inclinations to turnout. Voters are more inclined to turn out when they have positive feelings towards the candidate with which they identify because they want “their” candidate to win. But citizens may also be more likely to vote when they dislike the candidate of the party with which they do not identify. In that case, voters are motivated to prevent the candidate from being elected. Utilizing the American National Election Studies data for 1968–2020, the analysis finds that the likelihood of voting is affected by (a) the degree to which voters’ affections towards the candidate differ from one another (having a clear‐cut choice between options) and (b) the nature of the affections (negative or positive) towards both in‐ and out‐party candidates.

Impact of facilities layout methods on in-person elections: a theoretical exploration

ABSTRACT Motivated by the trend in literature that explores the effects of facilities layout planning in service systems, this work aims to observe the impact of layout and path directionality on voting system performance. A two-step voting system is considered, and a 1,000 sqft room is modelled under various layout and path directionality conditions. Discrete event simulation is used for a computational simulation analysis using the Bonferroni Approach to Multiple Comparisons to determine differences in average voter travel distance and average voter time-in-system. The results indicate that layout method and path directionality significantly affect average voter travel distance, with the perimeter layout with a unidirectional path being the most efficient. For the average time-in-system, the layout affected some turnout levels and between some layout methods; however, path directionality had no significant effect. Similar to average travel distance, the perimeter layout generally resulted in the most efficient time-in-system. This work exemplifies the critical role that layout plays in the performance of elections and presents valuable insight into how layout can be utilised to design more efficient election systems.

Foundations of a New Democracy: Schooling, Inequality, and Voting in the Early Republic

Democratic theorists have long argued that states can create more resilient democracies through education. Educational investments are thought to produce more economic equality and instill in citizens greater capacity and responsibility to participate in politics. Using a geographic regression discontinuity design and township-level data from Antebellum New York State, we examine whether state funding for common schools led to higher voter turnout as well as higher earnings and lower inequality. Our estimates support the view that a participatory democratic culture emerged not only because of initial favorable endowments but also because of subsequent government decisions to fund education. New York townships that received more school funding later had higher median earnings, lower earnings inequality, and higher levels of voter turnout. Our findings support the view that maintaining democracy requires active investments by the state, something that has important implications for other places and other times—including today.

Rising electoral fragmentation and abstention: the French elections of 2022

For the second time in the history of the Fifth Republic, the candidates of France’s former mainstream left- and right-wing parties were disqualified during the first round of the presidential elections. The repetition of the duel between Emmanuel Macron (centrist candidate) and Marine Le Pen (radical-right candidate) in the second round of the presidential election marks the durable transformation of the political space in French politics, an evolution that was already taking shape in 2017. The 2022 parliamentary elections confirmed the transformation and reconfiguration of the political landscape. Overall, the results of the elections in 2022 underscore major shifts in the party system as well as deep political fragmentations not only on the left but also, and in particular, on the right. Above all, the poor level of turnout in both elections reconfirms the considerable and enduring crisis of representative democracy in France.