Turkish Party System Research Articles

Metamorphosis of Turkey’s political landscape: unveiling the evolving party system in the aftermath of the presidential system shift and the 2023 elections

ABSTRACT The May 2023 elections in Turkey—comprising both parliamentary and presidential races—represented a pivotal moment in the country’s political history. These elections provided a crucial evaluation of the hyper-presidential system instituted after the 2017 constitutional transition. This article delves into the impact of the 2023 electoral outcomes on Turkey’s party system within the context of Turkey’s transition to a presidential system. It examines the ramifications of institutional changes, such as the introduction of winner-takes-all dynamics and alliance laws, on party system dynamics. Our findings indicate substantial transformations in key aspects of the party system, including increased polarization, heightened fragmentation, enhanced volatility, and intensified personalization. Through empirical analysis, showcasing the evolving dynamics of these challenges within the Turkish party system and their consequences for both the party system’s structure and the broader political regime, we offer insights into potential future trajectories for Turkey’s political landscape.

Transition from parliamentarism to presidentialism and the restructuring of the Turkish party system

ABSTRACT The role of institutional factors on party system change has received increasing scholarly attention. This article analyses the emergence of new trends in the structure of party competition in Turkey following the transition from parliamentarism to presidentialism in 2017. The newly-adopted presidential system endowed the president with extraordinary powers and reduced the role of the parliament. Presidential elections assumed central importance in electoral politics; competition was structured by pre-electoral coalitions and party alliances; more than two-thirds of the voters cast their ballots for one of the two main electoral alliances; and there was a trend towards the emergence of a bipolar party system. The analysis presented in this study emphasizes the role of institutional engineering, especially the introduction of presidentialism and changes in electoral laws, as major factors in the restructuring of the Turkish party system.

Measuring the Level of Party Institutionalization in Turkey

The main aim of this research is to combine theoretical approaches to party institutionalization with empirical operationalization. This study provides a systematic operationalization of the concept of party institutionalization using different indicators in the case of Turkish democracy. Although there has been extensive literature on the Turkish party system, there has been little discussion on party institutionalization in Turkey. The main weakness of most research is the failure to address how to quantify and measure party institutionalization. To overcome this problem, this paper offers the Party Institutionalization Index (PII). The PII is produced by the systematic operationalization of four dimensions of party institutionalization: stability, systemness, reification, and rootedness. The research shows that a political party may have significantly different scores in each dimension. This study argues that political parties with higher membership strength, geographically large-scale units, higher chronological age, more leadership changes, lower electoral volatility, and greater electoral success will become more institutionalized and survive longer. The results indicate that the CHP is the most institutionalized party in Turkey. This study also shows that political parties in Turkey, except for the HDP, display a relatively high level of institutionalization. 

A Reassessment of the Turkish Party System

Modern political institutions have a long history in Turkey but because of limited competition until 1945 and military interventions in 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997, the party system has not developed consistently. Moreover, the electoral system, particularly the 10% electoral threshold applied after 1980, directly affected the Turkish party system. Having been interrupted by non-democratic forces and attempted to be formed via political engineering, the development of Turkish political parties and party systems has not been linear. In recent years, there has been an increasing amount of literature on the Turkish party system. However, since most studies were based on inadequate empirical data and limited to the 1990s and the 2000s, they have generally focused on the predominant party system and failed to critically review discussions on party systems. This paper analyzes Turkish party systems from 1950 to the present using the quantitative method. Adopting the criteria of the number of relevant parties and their relative strengths, this study applies different indicators such as the effective number of parties and fragmentation. This paper argues that Turkey has experienced four main different forms of party systems since 1950: a two-party system (1950-1960 and 2002), a two and a half party system (1960-1980), a moderate multiparty system with a balance among parties (1991-1999), and a moderate multiparty system with one dominant party (1983-1987, and 2007-2018).

THE SECULARIZATION AND DESECULARIZATION NEXUS IN THE TURKISH CONTEXT: WHAT IS BEHIND?

The history of Turkey provides multiple examples of intricate combination of secularization (in the Turkish tradition – laicism) and desecularizaion (understood as a revival of Islam and its expansion into social life) while its contemporary dynamics provides a background for a non-conventional view on the correlation between the state and religion in the Muslim societies. The desecularization of Turkey has been a continuous process since the late 1940s, making it increasingly convenient for Islamists to become more visible in the political and the socioeconomic spheres. This paper analyzes the inclusion and accommodation of the “Turkish Islamism” into the sociopolitical life of Turkey focusing on such important phenomena as the constantly expanding religious sphere, the emergence of economic liberal conservatism, the rising resurgence of Islamism in education and media sphere together with the “jemaatization” of the Turkish society. The manifold manifestations of descularization in social, political and economic life, its profound impact on the Turkish party system, banking sector, education and mass media indicates the dialectic nature of secularization and desecularization nexus and reveals the flexibility of the border between religious and political spheres.

Models of party institutionalization and problems of democratic consolidation

ABSTRACT The theory of party institutionalization (PI) developed in classical party literature has been a crucial tool for analyzing political parties. This paper aims to introduce how alternative models have emerged in developing democracies, suggesting the main dimensions of PI (‘autonomy’ and ‘systemness’) are not always positively correlated like initially suggested. One of these coined the ‘trade-off’ model, represents a dilemma of leadership where one dimension needs to be traded off to enhance the other. This may occur in parties that have radically motivated activists. Strategic difficulties that it brings, affect ‘professionalization’ of parties and their survivability. The last model (the ‘non-democratic’ model) is an extreme version of the tade-off model and it occurs when ‘autonomy’ is maximized and ‘systemness’ is minimized – a phenomenon that occurs easier under dominant party systems. Last section of this paper focuses on a case study (Turkey) to illustrate these models using primary and secondary sources; theoretical works on parties, the Turkish party system, and empirical data relating to the Turkish case.

Exploring the level of party system institutionalization and party system type in Turkey: a convergence with established or new democracies?

ABSTRACTThis article offers an analysis of the level of post-1980 Turkish party system institutionalization (PSI) and party system type. Although Turkey shares characteristics with both established and new democracies, no research has compared Turkey to both the established and new democracies with regard to PSI. Utilizing Croissant and Völkel’s four-dimensional index of PSI and Siaroff’s typology of party system type, this article shows that the level of Turkish PSI is higher than that of new democracies. The Turkish party system has not been fully institutionalized yet; however, the dominant party system introduces a certain degree of stability and predictability.

Westernist sceptics and anti-western reformers in the Turkish party system

This paper focuses on the Turkish political parties’ attitudes towards the country’s European Union (EU) membership. It intends to analyse the concerns and demands of the political parties as the parliamentary debates shape government policies. The paper considers the parties’ positions in the parliamentary power matrix (incumbency or opposition), their ideological tendencies and electoral concerns; and their relations with the social classes, all of which influence the party strategies and policies. It begins with outlining the politicized social cleavages and the characteristics of the party system. Next, it discusses the foreign policy orientation of the parties, their perceptions on Europe and the EU, the preferred type of integration with the EU and the ways they interpret the policies of the EU towards Turkey’s membership. The paper finds that the secular social democratic parties have been the strongest supporters of membership mostly due to their historical pro-Western tendencies and their relations with republican big business. Their economic policies have been modelled on the European welfare state provisions. The nationalist parties have been consistently sceptical for cultural and nationalist reasons. The most interesting case emerges as the pro-Islamists, whose ideological reserve and scepticism disappear only temporarily and for practical reasons.

An aggregate analysis of the AKP vote and electoral continuities in the Turkish party system

ABSTRACTThis article aims to analyze the dynamics of the party system in Turkey by focusing on the AKP and construct an aggregate-level analysis of the electoral environment it operates in using regression models (1950–2011). Findings show strong patterns of continuity in the electoral geography of Turkey since the 1970s, mapping electoral strongholds of center-right, ultra-nationalist and pro-Islamist parties compared to those of the AKP. As of 2015, the AKP seems to have achieved a great deal of stabilization electorally and there is now handful of data that can identify and answer some of the questions related to the AKP, especially regarding its ideology, origins, electoral strength and appeal.

Party Splits in Turkish Party System: The Case of Centre-Right Parties

This study offers the first systematic analysis of party splits in Turkish electoral politics. It first explores party splits from major parties since the late 1940s before focusing on splits from three Turkish centre-right parties in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1990s. This article finds no detectable patterns between the entry costs measured by disproportionality, and the occurrence of party splits in Turkey. Instead, it argues that perceived demand for new parties and internal party dynamics, namely changes in party ideology and leadership consolidation, push the dissident factions out of the party and have a decisive influence over their decision to establish a new party. The article concludes with a note on the implications of this finding for contemporary Turkish party politics.

Gezi Park Protests in Turkey: A Party Politics View

AbstractOne year on from the widespread protests in Turkey, the question of why small environmental protests against the building of a shopping mall on Gezi Park in the centre of Istanbul turned into the biggest example of mass civil movement in the republic's history remains unanswered. This article suggests that one can easily detect signs of instability and social unrest in the country long before these mass demonstrations took place. By analysing the evolution of the Turkish party system over the past decade, I argue that the political upheaval in the country is the result of a crisis of representation. This has two aspects: a high degree of polarisation has left certain segments of society unrepresented, while the AKP government has ceased to maintain the balance between responsiveness and responsibility.

Turkish party system: leaders, vote and institutionalization

Research indicated that partisan affiliation, ideological and economic factors are the main determinants of the voters’ party preferences at Turkish elections. However, as Turkish political parties have been non-institutionalized structures, the role played by their political leaders seems to be larger than life. This paper seeks to assess the relative impact of the party leaders on the voters’ party preferences vis-à-vis ideology, partisan identity and economic satisfaction through empirical analyses with binary logistic regression. The data for the study were compiled as nationally representative surveys of the Turkish voters in June–July 2007 and May–June 2011.

Left–right reversed

Existing analyses of the Turkish party system suggest that it is unique in several respects. Upper-class voters tend to support the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the centre-left social democratic party, while poorer voters support the right. Unlike party systems in Western democracies, expert surveys find that a religious–secular divide, and not a socio-economic divide, best explains the general left–right dimension. Qualitative literature stresses Turkey’s uniqueness due to the long history of the CHP, its close ties to the bureaucracy and military, and the role of the military in politics. Lastly, existing quantitative measures of policy positions disagree about the placement of major parties. We estimate the principal dimension of Turkish party competition using electoral manifestos as data by applying the Wordfish scaling algorithm. We find that ideology in Turkish politics is reversed, with the nominally centre-left CHP employing more populist rhetoric typically associated with right-wing parties in the West, and vice versa.

Left-Right Reversed: Parties and Ideology in Modern Turkey

Existing analysis of the Turkish party system suggests that it is unique in several respects. Upper class voters tend to support the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the center-left social democratic party, while poorer voters support the right. Unlike party systems in western democracies, expert surveys find that a religious-secular divide, and not a socio-economic divide, best explains the general left-right dimension. Qualitative literature stresses Turkey’s uniqueness due to the long history of the CHP, its close ties to the bureaucracy and military, and the role of the military in politics. Lastly, existing quantitative measures of policy positions disagree about the placement of major parties. We estimate the principle dimension of Turkish party competition using electoral manifestos as data by applying the Wordfish scaling algorithm. We find that ideology in Turkish politics is reversed, with the nominally center-left CHP employing more populist rhetoric typically associated with right wing parties in the West, and vice versa.

Trends and Characteristics of the Turkish Party System in Light of the 2011 Elections

This article offers an analysis of basic trends in the post-1980 Turkish party system. How has the Turkish party system evolved during the last eight elections? How do these characteristics change with the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP, Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi)? Utilizing statistical methods informed by fieldwork conducted during the parliamentary elections of 2002, 2007, and 2011, the article suggests that Turkish elections exhibit unmistakable patterns of regionalization, which in turn have strongly contributed to the AKP's electoral ascendancy. Barring external shocks such as major economic crisis or leadership replacement, these regional patterns make it difficult for the opposition parties to effectively challenge the AKP.

Economic evaluations vs. ideology: Diagnosing the sources of electoral change in Turkey, 2002–2011

Turkish elections reflect two competing influences. One concerns a long-term increasingly conservative ideological orientation; the other, more short-term pragmatic evaluations primarily on the economic policy front. This article uses three nationwide representative surveys from 2002, 2007 and 2011 to assess the relative merits of these competing hypotheses. The findings indicate that the critical election of 2002 is not shaped by economic performance evaluations but rather by indicators of ideology at large and left–right ideology in particular. The influence of ideology appears to rise from 2002 to 2007 and 2011. Economic performance evaluations increase in salience from 2002 to 2007 but seem to have somewhat lost their power for 2011. Implications of these findings for the Turkish party system and further research questions are discussed in the concluding section.

Regional Vote Shares of Turkey’s Main Parties During the 1999-2009 Period

Based on the 3-way and 5-way groupings of Turkey’s 81 provinces obtained in Akarca and Baslevent (2011), we report the regional vote shares of the main parties in the Turkish party system in each nationwide election held between 1999 and 2009. The vote shares reveal that conservative right-wing parties receive a plurality of votes in all regions of the 3-way partition, but they receive significant challenge from left-wing and Turkish-nationalist parties in the west and the Kurdish-nationalist parties in the east. In addition to these patterns, the 5-way partition brings out also shifts in the relative strength of the parties within each main division.

Attitudinal Orientation to Party Organizations in Turkey in the 2000s

The Turkish party system experienced a serious blow in the early 1980s, when the military government in power closed down all the former legal political parties. Therefore, little evidence of strong psychological ties between voters and the political parties they supported at the polls is expected. This essay draws upon existing literature on voting behavior to develop four hypotheses to explain partisan affiliations of Turkish voters. Each of the hypotheses is then put to empirical tests, using data collected by means of a nationally representative survey. The four independent variables used in the four hypotheses are the role of parents’ party identification (socialization), ideological orientations, economic expectations, and the ethnic identities of voters. Socialization emerges as a major determinant of partisan affiliation with the relatively older Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Nationalist Action Party (MHP), while identifiers with the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) take few cues from their parents and pay more attention to the economic performance of that party in government. Ideology seems to play a major role in determining the psychological orientations of those who feel attached to the CHP versus the AKP or the MHP but little role in differentiating AKP from MHP voters. Ethnicity only plays a role in partisan affiliation with the MHP.

Towards a New Turkish Party System?

This essay examines the impact of the 2002 parliamentary elections in Turkey on the Turkish party system. While the 2002 elections did not indicate a trend toward the stabilization of the electorate, they ushered in a number of important changes in the party system, including the rise to power of a political party with an Islamist pedigree, the emergence of a two‐party system in the parliament, and the replacement of coalition or minority governments with single‐party majority rule. After delineating the changes in the party system, the study discusses possible new paths for party competition in Turkey in the near future.

From Political Islam to Conservative Democracy: The Case of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey

If one of the most interesting characteristics of the Turkish party system in the 1990s was the rapid rise of political Islam under the banner of the Welfare Party, an equally, perhaps even more, noteworthy development in the early 2000s is its transformation under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) leadership into a moderate conservative democratic party. Various aspects of this transformation are the central focus of this work. The AKP is compared with the earlier Islamist parties in terms of ideology, organization, competitive strategy, and government performance.