Turkey's Export Research Articles

Ekonomik Entegrasyon Anlaşmalarının Türkiye'nin Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatına Etkisi: ASEAN Örneği

It is seen that there have been great changes in the economic system and understanding in the phase from the settlement of humanity to the present day. The adventure of finding the technique of survival has been the key for states to dominate each other and become developed countries centuries later. Especially after World War II, there has been an increase in efforts to establish economic integration and to apply technology to industry in various parts of the world, especially in Europe. When this situation is evaluated in terms of Turkey, the fact that its exports of high-tech products, which is one of the indicators of development, is stuck between 2% and 4% and that it has a foreign trade deficit among the economic integrations of which it is a member, reveals that the understanding of establishing economic integration needs to change. Therefore, in this study, the impact of economic integration agreements between Turkey and ASEAN, the world's fifth largest economy, on Turkey's exports of high-tech products is analyzed with a panel gravity model covering the years 2007-2020 in line with the purpose of the study. As a result of the study, it is found that economic integration agreements with ASEAN positively affect Turkey's exports of high-tech products.

Evaluation of Performances of Automotive Sector Companies Traded in BIST, Including the COVID-19 Pandemic Period, with TOPSIS, ELECTRE and CRITIC Methods

It is known that financial performance is one of the most important criteria for company evaluations. While the financial performance evaluations of companies operating in different sectors can be evaluated under different criteria, it is possible to evaluate the financial performance of companies operating in the same sector using certain financial ratios. When Türkiye's export items are analyzed, it is seen how important the Automotive sector, which is one of the most important income items, is for the country. In this study, performance evaluations of 8 companies traded in this sector on BIST, including the COVID-19 pandemic period, were made using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods, based on their 2017-2021 year-end financials and 5-year average financial data. A total of 13 financial ratios, consisting of liquidity ratios, activity ratios, financial structure and ratios, and profitability ratios, were used in performance evaluations. Criteria weights of financial ratios were determined using the CRITIC method over 5-year average data. Performance evaluations of companies were made using TOPSIS and ELECTRE methods. The results were visualized using Bilateral Superiority Graph. Considering the 5-year period, according to TOPSIS and ELECTRE, while all companies passed the process successfully, the most successful companies were seen as DOAS, TTRAK and FROTO.

What Did Turkey Do in terms of Export Competitiveness After 2000?

Competitiveness relates to an economy's ability to produce products efficiently and effectively, enabling it to compete in domestic and global markets. It encompasses factors such as productivity, innovation, quality, cost-efficiency, and market access. Competitive economies are more likely to attract investment, create jobs, and achieve higher levels of economic development. Especially competitiveness rankings provide opportunity of benchmarking, effective policy guidance, attractive investment, global comparison and eveluation. In this respect, this study has been conducted to examine Turkey's export structure in the period 2001-2021 within the framework of Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System and to compare its competitiveness with the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage Index (RSCA). The data used to calculate the RSCA values are taken from TradeMap, the database of the International Trade Centre (ITC). The comparison was made with Turkey's highest trading partners, the countries with the largest share in Turkey's export. While Turkey had RSCA in 37 products in 2001, it increased to 45 products in 2021. Similar to Podoba et al. (2021), product groups are categorised according to observable trends in RSCA values. In 2001, 5 products with RSCA decreased, and in 2021, 12 products with comparative advantage replaced them

Turkey's 100th Anniversary of Export Marketing: Strategies, Opportunities, Challenges and Future Directions

Exports is crucial in driving economic growth and development for all countries worldwide. The export sector is critical for Turkey's economic growth and for boosting the country's standing in international trade. Exports is an essential source of Turkey's national income. It increases employment and contributes to economic growth. Exports is utilized as a strategic instrument to attain foreign trade balance, encourage knowledge transfer, gain access to new markets, and boost competitiveness. In recent years, Turkey, as an essential player in global commerce, has used various tactics to enhance its export activity. Turkey's export marketing strategy focuses on expanding export volume, diversifying exports, and maintaining competitiveness in foreign markets. The effectiveness of export marketing directly affects export performance. Turkey's export performance has shown a significant improvement. 2023 is essential as the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey and the beginning of the second century. The study would outline Turkey's export history, underline the importance of export marketing, and examine how Turkey's export marketing techniques have evolved. It would also investigate Turkey's role in global commerce.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPLICATIONS IN E-EXPORT: TURKIYE ANALYSIS

Purpose- The purpose of this study is to analyzes will be made about how artificial intelligence applications in e-export and how it will affect Turkey's export capacity and productivity with the innovations it will bring in the context of technology. It is researched how e-export can play a more active role with artificial intelligence in the context of public, private sector and individuals. Methodology- The methodology of the study will be analyzed through literature review and secondary data. Based on the analysis, grouping (topic and keywords) clustering will be emphasized and interpreted. The study was made in the form of compilation from different sources. Findings- The analysis reveals that the secondary data analysis, based on artificial intelligence and big data are evaluated, the countries with which Turkey cooperates in e-export are European, Asian and African countries. It is seen that the transactions made with these countries based on artificial intelligence, they can be considered as subjects that need to be studied because they are mostly new technologies. When the subject of e-export and artificial intelligence is examined by countries, its place and strategic importance in international trade can be seen. This situation occupies an important place especially in terms of Turkey's e-export. Conclusion- Based upon the analysis findings it may be concluded that It has been seen that the cooperation of academia and private sector is important in the applications of artificial intelligence in e-export, especially in applications in Turkey. Turkey's e-export performance is contributed by public policies and especially by the systems developed by the Ministry of Commerce to make exporters easier and more efficient transactions by giving importance to this area. As a result of these practices, it is aimed that there will be an increase in Turkey's total export figures and significant positive effects on the current account deficit and the ratio of imports to exports. The increase in the use of artificial intelligence in e-export accelerates efficiency and transactions. In the study, it is stated that the cooperation between the public and private sector and artificial intelligence applications in e-export have a high importance in Turkey. Keywords: E-export, Artificial Intelligence, Easy Export Platform, Ministry of Commerce, Secondary Data Analysis JEL Codes: A10, B22, F10

The Effect of Turkey's Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Its External Trade: Counterfactual Impact Analysis

The study aims to estimate the impact of Turkey's FTAs on its average external trade level by three novel approaches, which are the fixed effects counterfactual estimator (FEct), interactive fixed effect counterfactual (IFEct) estimator, and matrix completion (MC) method introduced by Liu et al (2022). The results show that while Turkey's FTAs have a positive impact on Turkey's exports to the economies that Turkey has FTAs, we do not find any significant effect on its imports on average. The findings show that Turkey's FTAs has increased its exports to these economies by 54.7% on average over five years after the FTAs entered into force. Moreover, placebo test results signal that the impact of these agreements on Turkey's export might occur before the agreements entered into force. As far as we know, this is the first study considering the effects of FTAs on countries trade by counterfactual estimators introduced by Liu et al (2022).

A hybrid mathematical model for international target market decision: the case of fibreboard industry

ABSTRACT Determining the target market constitutes one of the most important strategic decisions. During the target market selection, many factors need to be considered and evaluated systematically and the most accurate choice is required to be made. In this study, the target country market selection is made for the fibreboard industry, which is one of the main sectors of the forest products industry in Turkey. For this purpose, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, which are considered the most appropriate decision-making techniques among alternatives with many criteria, are utilised. AHP, VIKOR and TOPSIS methods are used to identify the most appropriate target market. Furthermore, a hybrid mathematical model including goal programming is proposed. And to handle ambiguity and fuzziness in international market decisions, a fuzzy goal programming model is developed. Economic, risk, supply chain and sectoral strategies are determined as the main criteria. 29 target countries are identified by including the countries ranking first in the exports of Turkey in the sector and the target countries determined by Ministry of Development. Target countries are ranked with MCDM. The rankings of the solution are compared via correlation tests. The first 10 countries are selected for the target market by employing the proposed models.

Effects of cross-border E-commerce customs declaration ceiling increase on export performance under COVID-19 conditions

PurposeThis study examines the impact of raising the ceiling value of Electronic Commerce Custom Declarations (ECCD) on Turkey's export performance processed via ECCD during the COVID-19 period.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines the impact of the pandemic conditions on Cross-Border Electronic Commerce (ECCD) exports from Turkey to 47 countries over 42 months before and during the pandemic. An empirical analysis using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Mean Group (MG), Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was conducted to identify the factors affecting export flows.FindingsThe findings suggest that raising the ceiling of the ECCD trade is a vital factor in increasing exports. and this result is robust after controlling for pandemic conditions. On the other hand, although the COVID-19 shock mitigates the export volume of ECCD in the short run, it changes by reversal and increases the export level in the long run. Additionally, the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Turkey have a significant and negative impact on export flows in the short run, while they have a positive and significant effect in the long run.Practical implicationsThe results of this study have practical implications for policymakers, emphasizing the potential and significance of Cross-Border E-Commerce (CBEC) trade.Originality/valueThe study is a pioneering effort in the literature of CBEC to explore how changes in the upper limit on customs declarations can affect export flows, taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting of Turkey's apparel exports using artificial neural network autoregressive models

Foreign trade is significant for open economies and has a critical place in the development of national economies in a globally competitive environment. Export has a key role as an important component in foreign trade transactions. In this study, Turkey's exports of HS-61 “Apparel and clothing accessories knitted or crocheted” and HS-62 “Apparel and clothing accessories not knitted or crocheted” products were examined. Turkey's exports of these HS codes to seven countries, which are mostly exported, EU27, OECD and the world were estimated for 2020–2025 using artificial neural networks (ANNs). The model was validated by measuring forecast errors (RMSE, MAE, and MAPE) to ensure that the model can recreate satisfactory results. The results reveal that the ANNs predicted the exports to the selected countries accurately. According to the findings from the NNAR (1,1) model, Turkey's exports of HS-61 coded products to Italy, the UK, France and EU-27 are expected to increase year-on-year from 2020 to 2025, while exports to the USA, Netherlands and Spain are expected to decrease. Exports from Turkey to Germany, the world and the OECD are projected to decrease first and then increase. In the NNAR (2,2) model, Turkey's exports to Italy, the UK and France are expected to increase year on year, while exports to other countries are generally estimated to decrease first and then increase. In the estimation made for the HS-62 product group with NNAR (1,1) model, it is predicted that TURKEY’s exports to Italy, the USA, the UK, France and Spain will increase year by year from 2020 to 2025. It is estimated that TURKEY's exports to the Netherlands, Germany, World, OECD and EU-27 will decrease year by year in the same period. In the NNAR (2,2) model, it is predicted that TURKEY's exports to UK, France and Spain will increase year by year, while exports to EU-27, OECD and World will decrease. However, TURKEY's HS-62 exports to Italy, the USA, the Netherlands and Germany are expected to follow a fluctuating course.

Empirical analysis of the impact of Turkish bilateral official development assistance on export

Purpose ― The main objective of this study is to explore the relationship between bilateral official development assistance and the export of Turkey to 18 Turkish aid recipient countries between 1998 and 2019. Methods ― The study employs the gravity model of international trade to capture the effect of official development assistance on Turkish export to its aid recipient countries and utilizes Panel data econometric analysis. Findings ― The official development assistance (ODA) remains statistically significant across the models, indicating that ODA is one of the significant drivers of Turkish bilateral trade with the aid recipient countries. Implications ― The study argues that Turkey applied ODA as a foreign policy tool to access new markets in the Middle East, Balkans, Africa, and Asia. Turkish exports to developing countries increased due to the upsurged country's foreign aid donation to its recipients. Originality ― This study deviates from other studies in the literature by empirically examining the relationship between bilateral Official development assistance and the export of Turkey.

Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Countries’ Trade Flows: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis

In this study, the effects of geopolitical risks (GPR) on countries’ trade flows are examined with the nonlinear ARDL method by using the data of 11 countries for 1993M01 – 2021M08 periods. According to the findings, positive GPR shocks reduced exports in Turkey, Russia, China, South Africa, Argentina, and Israel, whereas they reduced imports in Turkey, Russia, South Africa, and Israel. Negative GPR shocks increased exports in Russia, China, South Africa, Argentina, and Israel, whereas they increased imports in Mexico, China, and Argentina. It was determined that the effects of GPR on exports are symmetrical in Turkey, Russia, South Africa, Argentina, and Israel, whereas they are asymmetrical in Mexico, South Korea, India, Brazil, China, and Indonesia. Moreover, we find that the effects of geopolitical risks on imports are symmetrical in all countries. Increases in the REER decreased exports in Turkey, Mexico, India, China, Indonesia, South Africa, Argentina, and Israel, whereas they increased imports in Turkey, South Korea, Russia, Brazil, and Indonesia and decreased imports in Argentina and Israel. Increases in the world income increased exports of all countries, whereas increases in the countries’ own national income increased imports in Turkey, Mexico, South Korea, Russia, India, Brazil, Argentina, and Israel.

AN ANALYSIS OF SECTORAL EXPORT POTENTIAL OF TURKEY BY USING STRUCTURAL GRAVITY MODEL

Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to analyze the sectoral export potential of Turkey with the Structural Gravity Model. It is aimed to find the average effects of a variable (such as GDP, real exchange rate, trade agreements) on Turkey's sectoral exports. It has been researched in which countries and sectors that Turkey exports below or above the potential. 
 Method: The gravity model was used in this study to analyze Turkey's sectoral export potential.
 Findings: The aggregated results show that Turkey exports below its potential. The potential deficit of the agricultural sector in the 2010-2019 period is between 21-36 billion dollars. This corresponds to almost twice the volume of unused potential in Turkey's agricultural sector. On the other hand, the potential gap of the industrial sector in general is 5-31 billion dollars. The aforementioned values can be interpreted as the fact that Turkey has achieved some success in the industrial sector compared to the agricultural sector in terms of closing the potential gap in the historical process, but as of recent periods, both sectors have exported below the potential and policies that can approach the potential level are needed.
 Originality: Turkey's sectoral export potential was analyzed with the Structural Gravity Model, and the Gravity Model was first built for 179 countries and the period 2010-2019. Then, export potentials were estimated for the country pair at the sectoral level. Second, the average effects of a variable (such as GDP, real exchange rate, trade agreements) on Turkey's sectoral exports are examined. The study has a unique quality in terms of making a sectoral distinction and keeping the number of countries wide.

Impact of Liner Shipping Connectivity on Container Traffic in Turkish Ports

Demand for the transport sector is a derived demand; however, the transport sector is not only affected by the demand for the goods transported, but can also influence demand for itself by providing more transport facilities, which can affect trade by generating more options for foreign trade stakeholders. Accordingly, we have examined the effect of the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) variable, which is an indicator of countries' liner transportation connectivity, on Turkey's export and import container traffic, by using regression analysis. We have enriched our model by adding the real exchange rate variable, which is the most important factor affecting foreign trade. Our results show that a 1% increase in the country's LSCI increases export and import container traffic by approximately 1%. This result shows that not only exchange rate and production policies, but also transportation policies, are critical in improving foreign trade of the country. The development of transportation facilities can both reduce transport costs and shorten the delivery time, thereby supporting Turkey's policies to become a production centre.

İHRACATTA COVID-19 ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACATTA İLK 5 ÜLKEYE İHRACAT PERFORMANSININ ANALİZİ

The Covid-19 pandemic, which started in Wuhan, China in 2019, become a global health crisis by spreading to many countries in a short time. Considering the effects of the pandemic on international trade, many countries have taken measures of customs transactions, and these measures caused global changes in the supply chain flow in trade. The supply chain disruptions that led by trade-related pandemic measurements has caused to decrease in economic growth, the slowdown in trade, and weakening of financial markets. Turkey was among the countries that took customs measurements. In this study, it is aimed to understand how Turkey's export performance is affected by the trade-related pandemic measures. In this context, it was examined whether Turkey's exports were affected during the strict implementation of pandemic measures at customs. Afterwards, it was evaluated whether a "new normal" has emerged in exports after the pandemic measures taken at customs decreased with the normalization throughout the country.

O Impacto da Pandemia Covid-19 na preferência dos Turistas Domésticos por Acomodações:

The tourism industry, which single-handedly accounts for a significant portion of the service export of Turkey, is regarded as being one of the industry that provide the most competitive advantages. However, as in other countries, the protectionist practices and travel restrictions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have had a significant impact on the tourism sector in Turkey, as well. This impact is not only related to a decline in tourism income, but also a process of sharp transformation that involving the travel behavior and accommodation choices of tourists. In this context, the aim of this study is to predict future accommodation preferences of domestic tourists by using markov chain analysis, taking into account previous experiences and Covid-19 processes. In line with the findings of the study, the necessity of accommodation businesses and investors to carry out strategic planning within this framework was expressed, based on the forecast that the accommodation choices of domestic tourists in Turkey would change in the long term.

The relationship between growth and exports: what if the impact is negative Evidence form Turkey

Purpose- The effect of economic growth on exports in Turkey and the direction of the relationship have been determined. The data were obtained from the World Bank data system and TUIK (Turkish Official Statistics Institute, 2021 data were obtained from here) and annual data for the period 1961-2021 were used. Analyzed with Auto Regressive Distrubuted Lag Models (ARDL) bounds test approach and Toda&Yamamoto Causality Test. Methodology- The data set was created using annual data and analyzed in this way. Then Vector Autoregressive Model-VAR was created. Then, Toma&Yamamoto causality test and ARDL were applied. In addition, Breusch-Godfrey Autocorrelation LM Test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroskedasticity Test, unit root test, normality test and CUSUM tests were applied to verify the accuracy of the output. Findings- It is concluded that there is a long-term relationship between the ARDL Bounds test approach and the variables where economic growth affects exports negatively in the long run, and a 1% increase in economic growth causes a decrease of 1.18 million dollars in exports in Turkey. The error correction term, which is calculated export in the long run, shows that the imbalances that may occur in the short run are corrected in the long run. According to the results of Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, a causal relationship was found from Growth to Export. Conclusion- The aim of this article is to find the causal relationship between Growth and Export in Turkey in the widest possible range and with the most up-to-date data and to reveal the extent of the causal relationship between them. As a result, although there is a causal relationship from Growth to Exports, this relationship is negative in the long run. This result has not been included in the Turkish literature before. Keywords: Economic growth, exports, VAR, Toda&Yamamoto, causality, ARDL JEL Codes: B41, F14, F43

The nexus between tourism and international service trade in the coronavirus pandemic: Evidence from Turkey

Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has affected all economic processes as well as the tourism industry and service exports. COVID-19 pandemic affects negatively not only in the production and manufacturing industry, but also has caused important problems in the service and tourism sector. The paper aims to determine the effects of tourism revenues, international tourist arrivals and COVID-19 pandemic on service exports and the tourism industry. In line with the results, there is a long-term relationship among tourism revenues, international tourist arrivals, exchange rates, and service exports. According to FMOLS and DOLS results, an increase in the tourism revenues, international tourist arrivals and exchange rates ensure raising service exports of Turkey. However, it is determined that COVID-19 pandemic lead to decreasing service exports of Turkey. In addition, Granger causality analysis revealed that there is a unidirectional causality relationship from exchange rates to international tourist arrivals in Turkey. On the other hand, it is determined that there are bidirectional causality relationships between tourism revenues and service exports, international tourist arrivals and service exports, international tourist arrivals and tourism revenues. Results of the analysis indicate that service exports of Turkey follows a rising trend and it can be reduced the effects of COVID-19 pandemic when development of tourism infrastructure and quality raises.

CAN SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION BE AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR TURKEY? ANALYSIS WITH PANEL GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Son dönemlerde Avrupa Birliği ve Şanghay İşbirliği Örgütü çok fazla gündeme gelmiş ve özellikle Türkiye açısından örgütlerin birbirlerinin alternatifi olup olamayacağı tartışma konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışma ile Türkiye’nin her iki örgütle olan dış ticaret hacmi panel çekim modeli kullanılarak test edilmiş ve birbirlerinin alternatifi olup olamayacağı sınanmıştır. Yapılan analiz 2003-2019 dönemlerini kapsamaktadır. Bağımlı değişken olarak Türkiye’nin her iki örgütle gerçekleştirdiği ihracat ve ithalat toplamından oluşan dış ticaret hacmi kullanılmıştır. Bağımsız değişken olarak ise ülkelerin ekonomik büyüklüklerini temsilen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla rakamları, ülkelerin birbirleriyle olan uzaklıklarını temsilen mesafe değişkeni ve 2008 ekonomik krizin etkilerini görebilmek için kukla değişken kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, ülkelerin ekonomik büyüklüklerinin dış ticareti pozitif, mesafe ile ekonomik kriz kukla değişkenlerinin ise dış ticareti negatif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinin gelirlerindeki artışın Türkiye’nin toplam dış ticaret hacmi üzerine olan etkisinin daha büyük olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak Türkiye için, Şanghay İşbirliği Örgütünün Avrupa Birliğinin alternatifi olamayacağına karar verilmiştir

THE ELASTICITY OF EXPORTING THE MINING QUARRYING PRODUCTS TO FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES

Elasticity examining the exporting the products to foreign exchange rates, has been subject to so many studies. Exports are expected to increase in the case of the depreciation of the domestic currency in the economies where exports and imports are sensitive to foreign exchange rate. While foreign currency appreciation increases the profitability of the firms also increases because their costs are in domestic currency. This paper investigates how exchange rate changes affect mining & quarrying exports in Turkey. In this paper we aim to identify the elasticity of mining & quarrying exports to dollar exchange rate changes. Mining & quarrying whose development are mostly dependent on nature sector exports which is predominantly sensitive to the dollar exchange rate, was tried to be analysed by using the least squares method. Data representing the exchange rate for monthly average dollar-selling prices between the years of 2005-2017, obtained from the data system of the TCMB (The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) is used. In addition this, export data denominated in dollars for mining & quarrying products for the same period, were also obtained from the TUIK (Turkish Statistical Institute). Data obtained from those for 156 periods were analysed through the SPSS statistical packaged software program. As a result, mining & quarry exports are sensitive to the dollar exchange rate and a 1% increase in dollar exchange rate increases mining & quarrying exports by approximately $ 8,8 million. Besides this result, a one percent (1%) standard deviation increase in dollar exchange rate leads to a 0.65 standard deviation increase in exports of mining & quarrying products. These findings are consistent with the literature on elasticity to foreign exchange rate changes.

Sale Prediction in Textile Industry with Hybrid Deep Learning Using Time Series Images

In 2021, exports of 12.9 billion dollars in the field of textiles in Turkey's exports have an important place in all export income. In the reports published on the textile industry, this figure is expected to increase even more in the coming years. As in other sectors, accurate estimation of sales revenues in the textile sector is very important for the future plans of companies. In this study, a deep learning model has been developed for demand and sales forecasting in the textile industry. In the method used, income will be converted to image data with Gramm Angular Fields of time series. Convolutional neural networks were used to classify these images.