Political Turbulence Research Articles

All in this Together? Communities of Practice in UK–EU Cybersecurity Relations Post‐Brexit and Differentiated Re‐engagement

AbstractWhilst formative work on characterising UK‐EU cybersecurity cooperation points to re‐engagement rather than disengagement, we seek to take this as our starting point in order to build a more complex picture on how Brexit has impacted practitioners at policy and operational levels. The article argues that while UK‐EU collaboration in cybersecurity has historically been robust, the politics of withdrawal/ Brexit have had varying effects on engagement at the level of the everyday: (1) business as usual in the domain of national security and information sharing; (2) re‐engagement in the law enforcement realm; and (3) a formal partial disengagement in the policy and institutional realm. We therefore highlight in this article a more nuanced and differentiated impact relating to Brexit and cybersecurity cooepration and show how established communities of practice have been able to uilise mechanisms of resistance to achieve their goals in a time of political turbulence.

Dynamics of Changing Profile of Russian Identity in 2021–2023 (the case of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia))

The article presents the first results of applying a multidimensional approach to studying dynamic changes in various aspects of Russian civil identity in 2021–23. It uses a technique based on a five-component model for measuring group identification developed by K. Leach et al. The empirical base for the study is data from a survey conducted among residents of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). Based on the analysis of the results, the author concludes that 2022 was a period of social and political turbulence, during which there was a rethinking of both the sense of belonging to Russian society and the perception of it as an integral entity. The most significant events for all generations of Russians were discussions and conflicts on issues related to belonging, commitment to, or at least loyalty towards, the Russian community, its values, norms, and historical path. In 2023, the process of the Russian community consolidation became dominant, as evidenced by the growing indicators of all dimensions of Russian identity above the average. The most active growth was seen in groups with high self-esteem in those identity parameters that reflect individual efforts to rethink and inform a personal attitude towards the Russian community. While, according to parameters that rather reflect the formation of a generalized image of the Russian community as a whole in the information environment (including images transmit through social networks, mass media, texts of fiction, theatrical productions, cinematography, TV etc.), the increase in groups with high values was less significant.

Transformation of China’s Interests in the Arctic and Potential Areas for Cooperation with Russia in the Context of International Political Turbulence

This article examines China’s evolving role in the Arctic and the potential for Sino–Russian cooperation in the region. Recently, China has been increasingly assertive in its Arctic ambitions, engaging in partnerships and projects with various Arctic nations, including Russia. By identifying the main elements of China’s Arctic strategy—its priorities, goals and approaches—this study aims to shed light on how China seeks to expand its influence in this geopolitically significant area. Additionally, the article explores current trends in Sino–Russian relations, especially in light of the geopolitical changes and tensions that have arisen in the past two years. With a focus on sustainable development, it assesses how China and Russia might align their interests and collaborate in the Arctic. The research highlights the potential synergies between these two major international players, investigating how they could navigate shared interests, manage risks, and promote stability in the region amidst complex global challenges. By analyzing these dynamics, the article seeks to contribute to a deeper understanding of the strategic interplay between China and Russia in the Arctic.

Political Turbulence and its Impact on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in some selected African countries

This work examined the political turbulence and its impact on Foreign Direct Investment inflow on some selected African countries; Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. The aim is to determine how the political climate in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa affects the inflow of foreign direct investment. The modified Cobb Douglass model was the theoretical underpinning of the study since growth in FDI is likened to output and the factors that lead to growth are the investment climate variables. Using the panel ARDL model analysis, the following findings were made: Political investment climate variable (PSI) had significant positive effect on the inflow of foreign direct investment in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. The result showed that Political investment climate variables (political stability and corruption index) exerted significant negative effects on the inflow of foreign direct investment into Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. It was recommended that; Efforts should be made by the governments of Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa to enhance their economic fortunes by strengthening their economy through prioritizing political stability and addressing underlying causes of political unrest, corruption, weak institution and political social inequality. As well as engaging in massive production for exports which will boost economic growth and attract more foreign direct investment.

Foreign Policy of the Union State: Latin-Caribbean Direction of the Russia-Belarus Integration

The research is aimed at studying the Union State foreign policy in the Latin-Caribbean direction in new geopolitical conditions and its role in the emerging architecture of world economy and geopolitics. The mechanism for implementing the Union State foreign policy has been determined. It is shown that the external contour of the Russia-Belarus integration is not the sum of foreign policies, but is being implemented within the framework of their legal framework: pursuing a coordinated foreign policy, the parties maintain a flexible approach and are not limited by the framework of the foreign policy institutions of the Union. The author presents basic areas of project cooperation between Russia, Belarus and the states of the Latin-Caribbean region establishing priorities of cooperation.Aim. To appraise the significance and potential of Latin-Caribbean direction in the Union State foreign policy in the current conditions of economic turbulence and geopolitical escalation.Tasks. To identify the main areas of cooperation, to analyze current trends and influencing factors, and to determine the prospects for interaction.Methods. A combination of general scientific theoretical and special methods is used. The method of comparative analysis and the logical method are of prime importance. When working with regulatory and legislative sources, the normative method is used.Results. The potential of cooperation between the Union State and the countries of Latin-Caribbean America has not been fully realized, however, an accelerated diversification of partnership between the countries is being practiced as well as an expansion of areas of interaction based on economic feasibility and political motivation.Conclusions. Under current conditions of global political and economic turbulence, the Latin-Caribbean direction of the Union’s foreign policy is an important part in building effective international cooperation and developing new trans-regional logistics routes.

Empowering marginalised communities: Leveraging indigenous knowledge for sustainable energy development in South Africa

AbstractAmidst South Africa's volatile energy landscape—characterised by political turbulence, economic instability and Eskom's chronic financial and operational challenges—the imperative for transformative reform is both urgent and indispensable. Municipalities are confronted with deteriorating infrastructure, recurrent power disruptions and widespread electricity theft, which collectively exacerbate the national energy crisis. This paper investigates the integration of indigenous knowledge systems within the country's energy sector as a strategic response to these persistent challenges, promoting the empowerment of marginalised communities and advancing environmental sustainability. Anchored in the theoretical frameworks of environmental justice and indigenous rights, the paper advocates for Afrocentric paradigms such as traditional resource governance and community‐driven energy solutions. Employing thematic analysis of secondary data, it evaluates the viability and prospective benefits of this paradigm shift. The paper posits that the inclusion of indigenous knowledge in energy practices not only presents tangible solutions to the energy crisis but also cultivates socio‐economic empowerment and reinforces environmental stewardship.

Supervising criminalised women in the community in England and Wales: A brief history of (un)changing attitudes

AbstractThere has not been a specific history of supervising women in the community. This article, therefore, describes the early neglect of work with women and the period of change from the 1970s when women became more visible and the criminal justice system's response to them began to face scrutiny. It posits the story against the background of increased awareness of gender discrimination and efforts to reduce the use of imprisonment by addressing women's criminogenic and social needs through community‐based supervision. It juxtaposes innovative work initiated by practitioners and managers to years of unfulfilled policy promises. An essential part of the story is the attempt to integrate feminist perspectives into policy and practice at a time of organisational and political turbulence. It concludes that our increased understanding of criminalised women presents the opportunity of breaking the frustrating cycle of governmental ‘enthusiasm‐disillusion‐indifference’ and making a genuine contribution to equality and social justice.

The Impact of Political and Cultural Alterations on Crown Designs in the Herat School Paintings of the Timurid Period

A crown or headwear was considered one of the most important parts of clothing in the past. More than any other article of clothing, it expressed one’s social position and status. As a symbol of royalty in Iran, the design of crowns evolved over different historical periods. At times, it was used as a symbol to show power and authority. At others, it was as a symbol of the tyranny of mighty kings, and sometimes a symbol of luxury and aristocratic life. The Timurid period, with all of its political and social turbulence, is considered one of the most brilliant periods of painting, where new details and subjects appeared. This article investigates the role of crowns and headdresses with a historical descriptive method based on the existing library sources. It shows how the design of the crown in the paintings of the Timurid period was mostly influenced by cultural and religious factors. Timurid artists of the Herat school did not stick to the historical facts. Instead they sought to present an ideal image of the king, following the standards of the era, displaying slight differences in each period and reign.

П ОСТСАНКЦИОННЫЙ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ В РОССИИ: АСПЕКТЫ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

The development of the Russian economy in recent years has taken place in conditions of political and economic turbulence. This turbulence is generated by two successive macroshocks, the first of which is caused by the Covid-19 pandemic (2020), and the second by anti-Russian sanctions (2022). These events had a negative impact on the Russian economy. These shocks can be characterized as complex realized threats to economic security. At present, judging by the dynamics of GDP, the consequences of these threats have generally been overcome. The article examines the nature of these shocks and shows that the negative potential of the impact of the sanctions macroshock remains. Post-sanctions economic growth is not sustainable. Institutional and structural reforms are required in order to adapt the economy to the new conditions of its development and functioning. For their successful implementation, it is necessary to modernize the implemented economic security policy; the essence of this modernization is to give this policy a strategic orientation.

Management of Mining Brownfields for Support of Regional Tourism

Turbulent political and economic changes in 1989 caused the gradual decline of the mining industry in the Slovak Republic. Abandoned territorial localities were created, affected by mining activity, without any use with devastated mining objects, or even a certain form of environmental burden. These territorial locations used for mining in the past, unused currently, in varying degrees of devastation, are referred to as mining brownfields. This issue is topical, as there is constant urbanization of new territories. Mining brownfields often represent a certain form of territorial reserve to support tourism development. The present study deals with identifying the tourist potential of the Fedö shaft mining brownfield in the Červenica—Dubník area (Slovakia), which is included in the list of national cultural monuments. The study points out the need for reclamation from the point of view of supporting the development of a tourist destination based on the accessible mining brownfield—the Jozef tunnel—making it possible to use the interaction links of both mining brownfields in the investigated area of tourism. Based on the results of the conducted SWOT analysis, the study presents the quantification of the tourism development support potential of the analyzed mining brownfield. It also includes selected environmental, social, and economic aspects of the reclamation, and the definition of an effective strategy for usage of the examined mining brownfield as a tool to support tourism development. The article concludes a model of effective management of the use of mining brownfields in the field of tourism in Slovakia, which is constructed as open and modifiable in its interaction with the specification of diverse conditions of tourist destinations with integrated mining brownfields, which include old mine works.

Golden Triangle Amphetamines in India: The Indo-Bangladesh Border as an Alternative to the North-East Corridor

Myanmar’s political turbulence has provided suitable conditions for the growth of bustling drug production complexes. From opiates to amphetamines, the connection between drugs, conflict and power is a key regional dynamic with implications for its neighbours and beyond. This article discusses some security and socio-economic implications for India due to the explosion of amphetamine trade originating in the Golden Triangle region. Though the North-east has been extensively identified as the main corridor for the passage of Myanmar-origin drugs, this article explores an alternative view by focusing on West Bengal as a particularly vulnerable area as both a destination and transit area for amphetamines. I argue that in the densely populated border areas in West Bengal, amphetamines are being integrated into existing cross-border smuggling routes used for cattle, gold, minerals and illicit pharmaceutical drugs, with regional and national implications.

Development, democracy, and dependence in the Southern Cone: political coalitions, stabilizing mechanisms, and their hazards

This article explores the challenge of sustaining development-oriented political coalitions in ‘dependent intermediate democratic economies’ (IDDEs). Scholars have pointed out that the absence of upgrading coalitions in IDDEs, particularly in Latin America, results from weak economic and political institutions and fragmented political support, as well as from the political and social turbulences introduced by economic dependency. Our argument, however, is that some Latin American IDDEs have managed to craft semi-stable political configurations capable of sustaining development and reform processes with relative success. These intermediate coalitions pivot on context-specific stabilization mechanisms that balance institutional, political, and economic fragilities and tensions. To support this argument, we take issue with three countries in Latin America’s Southern Cone – Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay – and distinguish three different types of stabilization mechanism at play in each of these cases: an Argentine-style variant based on the hegemonic role played by a dominant political party, a Chilean-style variant based on elite consensus and the atomization of collective organization, and a Uruguayan-style variant sustained by stable links between and within economic and social sectors. Additionally, we explore how each of these configurations, due to their structure, carry inherent hazards that envision specific trajectories of destabilization.

ФОРМИРОВАНИЕ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ ПАРАДИГМЫ ЗЕЛЕНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ РФ В УСЛОВИЯХ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ И ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЙ ТУРБУЛЕНТНОСТИ

The scientific article is devoted to the study of the formation of a green economy model in Russia in the context of global economic and political turbulence. The formation of the green economy paradigm in Russia is currently facing multiple contradictions of geopolitical and economic nature, so it is not possible to determine an unambiguous course of action. Taking into account the national peculiarities of the green economy paradigm (the exclusive role of government participation in the formation of a green economy; the lack of proposals for the development of some universal principles of responsible market behavior, compiled by the business community itself; the fears of the political leadership in terms of the embargo on the supply of energy assets to the European market), the author has identified the following scenarios for the development of the green economy: freezing of work on the formation of a green economy; environmental compromise.

A “Maverick Salafi Political Jihadist” in a Turbulent Period: A Biographical Study of Dr Fauzi

<p>A biographical study through the lens of Mills’ sociological imagination and Erikson’s identity crisis provides a unique understanding of Dr Fauzi AR, a dedicated Islamist. Fauzi grew up in a devout Muslim family in Kauman, Yogyakarta, the heartland of the modernist Islamic organisation Muhammadiyah. He was educated in Muhammadiyah schools and eventually became a qualified medical doctor. He was politically active in the Islamic United Development Party and joined Laskar Jihad, a Salafi-Wahabi paramilitary group, during the inter-religious conflict in Maluku in 2000. This article argues that the political turbulence during the democratic transition in 1998–1999 led Fauzi to have an identity crisis, which spurred his desire to participate in jihad (holy war). Afterwards, Fauzi became a reformed “maverick post-jihadist,” in that he was unpredictable yet competent. He was unorthodox in his methods, remaining active in mainstream political Islam through the United Development Party while also engaging in physical jihad, which is contradictory because participation in partisan politics is forbidden by the Salafi doctrine. He also remained a heavy smoker although smoking is forbidden by Salafi religious decree. He further defied Salafism by supporting his wife in an unsuccessful bid for a seat in the national parliament as a member of the secular-nationalist party Gerindra in the 2009 election. This case study of Fauzi AR reflects the complex and multifaceted nature of political Islam and Islamic movements in the post-Soeharto era, including those who resorted to extremism and violence to achieve greater Islamisation of society.</p>

The principle of the rule of law in the system of constitutional principles for the implementation of the right to a safe environment

The scientific article examines the importance of the principle of the rule of law in the system of constitutional principles for the implementation of the right to a safe environment. It was found that constitutional principles are a type of legal principles and there is also no unity among scientists to understand them, which cannot contribute to the unequivocal application of law. The innovative approach and proposed concepts of «ecological constitutionalism» are analyzed, which at the same time shows the complexity of the issue of environmental protection, the combination of the principles of constitutional, environmental and international law. It further developed the proposition that every modern constitution should be based on a fundamental environmental commitment to present and future generations and thereby protect key societal values from certain political turbulence, government policy change that favors short-term economic or political advantages over long-term environmental or economic sustainability. It is the constitutional norms that must guarantee the sustainability of development, as well as stability from political changes in the course regarding the protection of basic human rights and the protection of a safe environment, without which it is not possible to create the proper conditions for a decent human life and social development. The concepts of «constitutional principles», «principles of environmental law» and «rule of law» were studied. Various approaches among scientists to understanding the principle of the rule of law have been clarified. Those decisions of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine that allow personifying and objectifying the principle of the rule of law, as well as developing the content of this principle, are analyzed. It was established that the Constitutional Court of Ukraine in its decisions meaningfully filled the principle of the rule of law, emphasized the non-identity of law and law, remarked on justice as a key element of law, which in combination with equality, legal certainty fills this concept. Our own approach to understanding the principle of the rule of law as the basis of the system of constitutional foundations for the realization of the right to a safe environment is substantiated.

Dream Divination in a Context of Social Disruption: Julian’s Vision of the Two Trees

The late Roman discourse on divinatory dreams and their interpretation reflects a context of cultural fragmentation. The political turbulence of the 350s to 360s was due partly to the ongoing external war with the (Persian) Sasanians, but also to the internal struggle between the heirs of Constantine for rule over the Roman empire, still undergoing a process of Christianization when Julian was acclaimed Augustus in 360. A third arena of fragmentation was religious beliefs and practices during the 350s and 360s. The contested transformation of Rome in the religious sphere was the context of Julian’s dynastic vision of the two trees, received in late 358 or 359.

Solidarization of Russian Society: a Historiographical Analysis

Introduction. At present the relevance of the problem of solidarity of Russian society is associated with the attempts of the countries of the Greater West to solve accumulated problems through building an image of the enemy, which makes it possible to consolidate national economies and effectively fight opposition forces within the country. In modern Russian philosophy, a number of approaches to developing the concept of solidarity of Russian society have developed. Despite this, many aspects of this problem still remain insufficiently studied. Thus, this study analyzes various approaches to defining the solidarity of society, which were formed in Russian philosophy; identifies the essential properties of solidarity, and substantiates the thesis about the need to form new tools and mechanisms of social order that will allow for the solidarity of society. The purpose of the presented research is a historiographic analysis of the concept of solidarity in relation to Russian reality. Methodology and sources. The methodological basis of this study is the principle of unity of the historical and logical, as well as methods of analysis and synthesis. There were used as sources the works of classics of Russian philosophical thought who developed the concept of solidarity (I.S. Aksakov, N.Ya. Danilevsky, etc.), as well as the works of modern Russian thinkers, such as Yu.V. Shkudunova, A.A. Efanov, allowing to identify the main aspects of the problem of solidarity of Russian society. Results and discussion. The authors of this article conducted a historiographical analysis of the concept of “solidarization”. During the analysis, the main essential properties of solidarity were identified, such as procedurality, value orientation, ideology, and complexity. The relevance of the traditions of Russian religious philosophy for the development of the problem of solidarity is also shown. The authors consider the solidarity of society as a set of political, economic and sociocultural processes aimed at uniting society around an integral system of values expressed by a single social ideology. Conclusion. The modern world is in a phase of political turbulence, which has a direct impact on all fundamental aspects of society. Their impact can be seen especially clearly in the example of Russian reality. In these conditions, the survival of Russia depends on the degree of unity of society as a guarantee of national security.

Thucydides and the British reaction to the French Revolution

ABSTRACT The ancient Athenian historian Thucydides’ account of the civil and interstate wars of classical Greece proved particularly illuminating for British commentators writing at the time of the French Revolution (1789–99). However, despite a growing scholarly interest in Thucydides’ Nachleben in historical and political thought, little has been said on this period of his reception. This paper aims to address that gap. It suggests that, while Thucydides remained something of a minority interest, a curious mix of historians, journalists and political commentators turned to his History to explore the possibility that it might illuminate contemporary events. They were particularly interested in Thucydides’ account of the stasis on Corcyra (modern Corfu), and its role in spreading instability, civil strife and war throughout Greece. These commentators used Thucydides to think through the similarities and differences between ancient and modern iterations of political violence and sometimes appropriated his language to existing political vocabularies and categories of thought. This resulted in innovative interpretations of Thucydides’ text that emphasized the affinities between stasis in Antiquity with the idea of civil war, sedition, political instability and decline and fall in the contemporary world. It also led to the emergence of nuanced ideas of the lessons and warnings that could be drawn from Greek history as presented by Thucydides and how they could be applied to the turbulent politics of the 1790s.

Twenty-year tango: Exploring the reciprocal influence of macro-financial instability and climate risks

This study presents a novel investigation of the reciprocal relationship between financial instability and climate risks, focusing on the influence of climate policy uncertainty within the US financial system from a macroeconomic perspective. By adopting the bootstrap rolling-window causality method, the analysis captures structural changes over an extended period between January 2000 and March 2021. Importantly, this method provides a robust data-driven approach, avoiding ad hoc assumptions about temporal breakpoints. The results support the climate fragility hypothesis, highlighting the amplifying effect of financial instability on climate risks. The study reveals that periods of economic and political turbulence exacerbate these effects by generating substantial financial turbulence, which, in turn, influences climate policy. The results also indicate that climate policy uncertainty contributes to worsening financial instability during critical events such as sudden changes in interest rates and major financial crises. The implications of this research extend to policymakers and investors, encouraging them to integrate climate factors into decision-making processes and adopt sustainable practices to promote financial stability and mitigate climate-related risks.

Advancing European Integration in Central and Eastern Europe: A Comprehensive Examination of Reconciliation and Collaborative Progress in the Western Balkans

This article examines the European Union’s integration efforts in the Western Balkans within the broader context of Central and Eastern Europe, focusing on the challenges and strategies post-Yugoslavia. It outlines the EU’s application of “conditionality” in guiding candidate countries towards democratic governance and market-oriented economies, emphasizing the Copenhagen Criteria for accession. The text explores the unique challenges faced by the Western Balkans, including historical conflicts and political turbulence, and discusses the EU’s Stabilization and Association Process (SAP) as a mechanism for facilitating integration. Additionally, it highlights the importance of legal reforms, cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), and the advancement of ethnic harmony and minority rights as prerequisites for EU membership. The article concludes with an assessment of regional cooperation and the progress towards reconciliation, underscoring the EU’s role in promoting stability and development in the region.