Tuberculosis Case Notification Rates Research Articles

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of tuberculosis case notifications, Uganda: a ten-year retrospective analysis (2013–2022)

BackgroundUganda has a high incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis (TB). Analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of TB is an important tool for supporting spatial decision-making, planning, and policy formulations; however, this information is not readily available in Uganda. We determined the spatial distribution and temporal trends of tuberculosis notifications in Uganda, 2013–2022.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of routinely-generated program data reported through the National TB and Leprosy Programme (NTLP) surveillance system. We abstracted data on all TB cases diagnosed from 2013 to 2022 by district and region. We drew choropleth maps for Uganda showing the TB case notification rates (CNR) per 100,000 and calculated the CNR using the cases per district as the numerator and individual district populations as the denominators. Population estimates were obtained from the 2014 National Population and Housing Census, and a national growth rate of 3% was used to estimate the annual population increase.ResultsOver the entire study period, 568,957 cases of TB were reported in Uganda. There was a 6% annual increase in TB CNR reported from 2013 (134/100,000) to 2022 (213/100,000) (p-value for trend p < 0.00001). Cases were reported from all 12 Ministry of Health regions during the entire period. The distribution of CNR was heterogeneous throughout the country and over time. Moroto, Napak and Kampala districts had consistently high CNR throughout the ten years. Kalangala district had lower CNR from 2013 to 2018 but high CNR from 2019 to 2022. Moroto region, in the northeast, had consistently high CNR while Mbale and Soroti regions in Eastern Uganda had the lowest CNR throughout the ten years.ConclusionThere was an overall increasing trend in TB CNR from 2013 to 2022. We recommend that the National TB program institutes intensified measures aided by more funding to mitigate and reverse the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB.

A comparative analysis of two national tuberculosis reporting systems and their impact on tuberculosis case notification in Uganda

AbstractBackground: Before 2018, the use of parallel tuberculosis (TB) reporting systems was resource intensive with duplication of efforts and hence the need to select one that contributed to better TB case notification at the National TB and Leprosy Program (NLTP) in Uganda. We sought to analyse the difference in reporting rates between the two systems in order to improve NTLP TB case notification rates, logistics management, and planning for better health service delivery initiatives.&#x0D; Methods: We conducted a comparative study to assess TB case notification between the web-based DHIS2 and the district TB supervisor-led health management information system between January 2016 to December 2017. We used Poisson regression analysis to assess the statistical differences in reporting rates between the two reporting systems.&#x0D; Results: The association between TB case notification and the type of reporting system was statistically significant (Prob &gt; chi2 = 0.0000). The Incident Rate Ratio (IRR) for the web-enabled DHIS2 system versus the district TB supervisor-led health management information system was 1.106625.Conclusion: The web-based integrated DHIS2 system was more effective in reporting missing TB cases. It presents an opportunity for better planning and allocation of resources for improved service delivery in a low-income setting.

The effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on Tuberculosis (TB) case notification in Ogun State, Nigeria.

COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in disruptions in delivery of Tuberculosis services especially, in resource-limited settings. Provisional data by the WHO from 84 countries indicates that about 1.4 million fewer people received care for tuberculosis in 2020 than in 2019. This study assessed the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis case notification rates in Ogun state, Nigeria. A retrospective review of presumptive TB and diagnosed TB cases that were notified in 2019 and 2020. Analysis was done using Epi-info version 7.2.3.1. Level of statistical significance was p < 0.05. A total of 3102 and 3326 confirmed cases were reported in 2019 and 2020 respectively with an increase of 7.2%. There was significant decline in total number of cases notified in Q2, 2020 compared to 2019 (p=0.001) with a significant increase in proportion of TB cases notified by private facilities from 11.65% in 2019 to 20.27% in 2020. Total TB cases notified in Ogun state increased during the covid-19 pandemic. There was significant decline in TB cases during the lockdown but an increase in proportion of TB cases notified by private facilities demonstrating that private facilities can withstand disruptions to TB case notifications due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in Indonesia: a nationwide longitudinal analysis of programme data

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in high-burden countries has not been adequately assessed. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national tuberculosis programme in Indonesia, in association with indicators of human development and health-system capacity across all 514 districts in 34 provinces. We did a nationwide longitudinal analysis to compare tuberculosis case notification, treatment coverage, and mortality rates in Indonesia before (2016-19) and during (2020-21) the COVID-19 pandemic. The following outcomes were assessed: the district-level quarterly reported tuberculosis case notification rate (number of all reported tuberculosis cases per 100 000 population), treatment coverage (proportion of tuberculosis patients who started treatment), and all-cause mortality rate in patients with tuberculosis (number of reported deaths per 100 000 population). District-level data on COVID-19 incidence and deaths, health-system capacity, and human development and sociodemographics were also analysed. Multilevel linear spline regression was done to assess quarterly time trends for the three outcomes. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the tuberculosis case notification rate declined by 26% (case notification rate ratio 0·74, 95% CI 0·72-0·77) and treatment coverage declined by 11% (treatment coverage ratio 0·89, 95% CI 0·88-0·90), but there was no significant increase in all-cause mortality (all-cause mortality rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·91-1·04) compared with the pre-pandemic period. In the second year of the pandemic, we observed a partial recovery of the case notification rate from Q1 to Q4 of 2021, a persistent decrease in treatment coverage, and a decrease in the all-cause mortality rate from Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021. The multivariable analysis showed that the reduction in the tuberculosis case notification rate was associated with a higher COVID-19 incidence rate (adjusted odds ratio 3·1, 95% CI 1·1-8·6, for the highest compared with the lowest group) and fewer GeneXpert machines for tuberculosis diagnosis (3·1, 1·0-9·4, for the lowest compared with the highest group) per 100 000 population. The reduction in tuberculosis treatment coverage was associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (adjusted odds ratio 11·7, 95% CI 1·5-93·4, for the highest compared with the lowest group), fewer primary health centres (10·6, 4·1-28·0, for the lowest compared with the middle-high group), and a very low number of doctors (0·3, 0·1-0·9, for the low-middle compared with the lowest group) per 100 000 population. No factors were shown to be significantly associated with all-cause mortality. The COVID-19 pandemic adversely and unevenly affected the national tuberculosis programme across Indonesia, with the greatest impacts observed in districts with the lowest health-system capacity. These disruptions could lead to an escalation in tuberculosis transmission in the coming years, warranting the need for intensified efforts to control tuberculosis and strengthen local health systems. Wellcome Africa Asia Programme Vietnam. For the Bahasa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Impact of Community-Wide Tuberculosis Active Case Finding and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Testing on Tuberculosis Trends in Malawi.

Tuberculosis case-finding interventions are critical to meeting World Health Organization End TB strategy goals. We investigated the impact of community-wide tuberculosis active case finding (ACF) alongside scale-up of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and care on trends in adult tuberculosis case notification rates (CNRs) in Blantyre, Malawi. Five rounds of ACF for tuberculosis (1-2 weeks of leafleting, door-to-door enquiry for cough and sputum microscopy) were delivered to neighborhoods ("ACF areas") in North-West Blantyre between April 2011 and August 2014. Many of these neighborhoods also had concurrent HIV testing interventions. The remaining neighborhoods in Blantyre City ("non-ACF areas") provided a non-randomized comparator. We analyzed TB CNRs from January 2009 until December 2018. We used interrupted time series analysis to compare tuberculosis CNRs before ACF and after ACF, and between ACF and non-ACF areas. Tuberculosis CNRs increased in Blantyre concurrently with start of ACF for tuberculosis in both ACF and non-ACF areas, with a larger magnitude in ACF areas. Compared to a counterfactual where pre-ACF CNR trends continued during ACF period, we estimated there were an additional 101 (95% confidence interval [CI] 42 to 160) microbiologically confirmed (Bac+) tuberculosis diagnoses per 100 000 person-years in the ACF areas in 3 and a half years of ACF. Compared to a counterfactual where trends in ACF area were the same as trends in non-ACF areas, we estimated an additional 63 (95% CI 38 to 90) Bac + diagnoses per 100 000 person-years in the same period. Tuberculosis ACF was associated with a rapid increase in people diagnosed with tuberculosis in Blantyre.

Tuberculosis in older adults: case studies from four countries with rapidly ageing populations in the western pacific region

BackgroundThe Western Pacific Region has one of the fastest-growing populations of older adults (≥ 65 years) globally, among whom tuberculosis (TB) poses a particular concern. This study reports country case studies from China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore reflecting on their experiences in managing TB among older adults.FindingsAcross all four countries, TB case notification and incidence rates were highest among older adults, but clinical and public health guidance focused on this population was limited. Individual country reports illustrated a range of practices and challenges. Passive case finding remains the norm, with limited active case finding (ACF) programs implemented in China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. Different approaches have been trialled to assist older adults in securing an early diagnosis, as well as adhering to their TB treatment. All countries emphasised the need for person-centred approaches that include the creative application of new technology and tailored incentive programs, as well as reconceptualisation of how we provide treatment support. The use of traditional medicines was found to be culturally entrenched among older adults, with a need for careful consideration of their complementary use. TB infection testing and the provision of TB preventive treatment (TPT) were underutilised with highly variable practice.ConclusionOlder adults require specific consideration in TB response policies, given the burgeoning aging population and their high TB risk. Policymakers, TB programs and funders must invest in and develop locally contextualised practice guidelines to inform evidence-based TB prevention and care practices for older adults.

Assessment of tuberculosis case notification rate: spatial mapping of hotspot, coverage and diagnostics in Katsina State, north-western Nigeria.

Tuberculosis (TB) is prevalent in Nigeria, and Katsina, along with other 12 states in the country, accounts for a high proportion of unnotified TB cases: constituting the high priority-intervention States in the country. Interventions focused on TB detection and coverage in the state could benefit from a better understanding of hotspot Local Government Areas (LGAs) that trigger and sustain the disease. Therefore, this study investigated the spatial distribution of TB Case Notification Rates (CNRs), diagnostics and coverage across the LGAs. Using 2017 to 2019 TB case finding data, the geocoordinates of diagnostic facilities and shapefiles, a retrospective ecological study was conducted. The data were analysed with QGIS and GeoDa. Moran's I and LISA were used to locate and quantify hotspots. The coverage of microscopy and GeneXpert facilities was assessed on QGIS using a 5 km and 20 km radius, respectively. The CNR in the state, and 29 of the 34 LGAs, increased steadily from 2017 to 2019. Hotspots of high CNRs were also identified in 2017 (Moran's I=0.106, p-value=0.090) and 2018 (Moran's I=-0.020, p-value=0.370). While CNRs increased along with presumptive TB rates across most LGAs over the years, the positivity yield and bacteriological and Xpert diagnostic rates decreased. Bacteriological and GeneXpert coverage were 78% and 49% respectively. Additionally, only 51% of the state's population lived within 20km of a GeneXpert facility. These results suggest that TB program interventions had some positive impact on the CNR, however, diagnostic facilities need to be equitably distributed and more innovative approaches need to be explored to find the missing cases.

GeneXpert rollout in three high-burden tuberculosis countries in Africa: A review of pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosis and outcomes from 2001 to 2019.

BackgroundThe rollout of GeneXpert aimed at increasing early diagnosis of tuberculosis to improve treatment outcomes and global tuberculosis targets.ObjectiveThis study evaluated trends in tuberculosis diagnosis and outcomes pre- and post-introduction of GeneXpert in three African countries – the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria and South Africa.MethodsData from 2001 to 2019 were extracted from the World Health Organization’s data repository. Descriptive analysis, paired t-tests and interrupted time series models were used.ResultsEstimated tuberculosis incidence decreased from 327/100 000 to 324/100 000 in the DRC, and from 1220/100 000 to 988/100 000 in South Africa. Incidence remained at 219/100 000 in Nigeria. The tuberculosis case notification rate did not change significantly. Increases in the new case treatment success rates were statistically significant (DRC: p = 0.0201; Nigeria: p = 0.0001; South Africa: p = 0.0017); decreases in mortality were also statistically significant (DRC: p = 0.0264; Nigeria: p = 0.0001; South Africa: p < 0.0001). Time series models showed insignificant increases in new tuberculosis cases in DRC (n = 1856, p = 0.085) and Nigeria (n = 785, p = 0.555) from 2011 to 2019; and a statistically significant decrease in South Africa (n = 15 269, p = 0.006).ConclusionImprovements in tuberculosis treatment outcomes were achieved, but little progress has been made in new case notification due to varied implementation and scale-up of GeneXpert across the three countries. Implementation barriers need to be addressed to achieve the required tuberculosis targets.

Descriptive Data Analysis of Tuberculosis Surveillance Data, Sene East District, Ghana, 2020

Introduction: Globally, Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health problem. In 2018, 10 million cases were diagnosed with 2.5 million in Africa and 44,000 in Ghana. Ghana's TB surveillance generates data routinely to be analyzed to detect changes in time, suspect outbreaks, rapidly respond to an event and monitor the impact of interventions. We analyzed TB surveillance data from Sene East District, Bono East Region of Ghana to estimate the TB case notification rate and describe the trends of confirmed TB cases and treatment outcomes.

Impact of intensified tuberculosis case finding at health facilities on case notifications in Cameroon: A controlled interrupted time series analysis.

There is a large gap between the number of people who develop tuberculosis (TB) and those who are diagnosed, treated and notified, with only an estimated 71% of people with TB notified globally in 2019. Implementing better TB case finding strategies is necessary to close this gap. In Cameroon, 1,597 healthcare workers at 725 health facilities were trained and engaged to intensively screen and test people for TB, then follow-up to link people to appropriate care. Primary care centers were linked to TB testing through a locally-tailored specimen referral network. This intervention was implemented across 6 regions of the country, with a population of 16 million people, while the remaining 4 regions in the country, with 7.3 million people, served as a control area. Controlled interrupted time series analyses were used to compare routinely-collected programmatic TB case notification rates in the intervention versus control area for 12 quarters prior to (2016-2018) and for 8 quarters after the start of the intervention (2019-2020). In 2019-2020, a total of 167,508 people were tested for TB at intervention sites, including 52,980 people attending primary care facilities that did not previously provide organized TB services. The number of people tested for TB increased by 45% during the intervention as compared to prior to the intervention. The controlled interrupted time series analyses showed that after two years of the intervention, the all-forms TB case notification rate in the intervention population increased by 9% (ratio of case notification rate ratios = 1.09, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.12), as compared with the counterfactual estimated from pre-intervention trends. This increase was observed even during a negative national impact on case finding from the COVID-19 pandemic. These results support the use of this health-facility based intervention to improve access to TB testing and care in this setting.

Neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios for adult bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis reveals hotspots of underdiagnosis in Blantyre, Malawi.

Local information is needed to guide targeted interventions for respiratory infections such as tuberculosis (TB). Case notification rates (CNRs) are readily available, but systematically underestimate true disease burden in neighbourhoods with high diagnostic access barriers. We explored a novel approach, adjusting CNRs for under-notification (P:N ratio) using neighbourhood-level predictors of TB prevalence-to-notification ratios. We analysed data from 1) a citywide routine TB surveillance system including geolocation, confirmatory mycobacteriology, and clinical and demographic characteristics of all registering TB patients in Blantyre, Malawi during 2015-19, and 2) an adult TB prevalence survey done in 2019. In the prevalence survey, consenting adults from randomly selected households in 72 neighbourhoods had symptom-plus-chest X-ray screening, confirmed with sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and culture. Bayesian multilevel models were used to estimate adjusted neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios, based on summarised posterior draws from fitted adult bacteriologically-confirmed TB CNRs and prevalence. From 2015-19, adult bacteriologically-confirmed CNRs were 131 (479/371,834), 134 (539/415,226), 114 (519/463,707), 56 (283/517,860) and 46 (258/578,377) per 100,000 adults per annum, and 2019 bacteriologically-confirmed prevalence was 215 (29/13,490) per 100,000 adults. Lower educational achievement by household head and neighbourhood distance to TB clinic was negatively associated with CNRs. The mean neighbourhood P:N ratio was 4.49 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.98-11.91), consistent with underdiagnosis of TB, and was most pronounced in informal peri-urban neighbourhoods. Here we have demonstrated a method for the identification of neighbourhoods with high levels of under-diagnosis of TB without the requirement for a prevalence survey; this is important since prevalence surveys are expensive and logistically challenging. If confirmed, this approach may support more efficient and effective targeting of intensified TB and HIV case-finding interventions aiming to accelerate elimination of urban TB.

Trends of notification rates and treatment outcomes of tuberculosis cases with and without HIV co-infection in eight rural districts of Uganda (2015 \u2013 2019)

BackgroundThe End TB Strategy aims to reduce new tuberculosis (TB) cases by 90% and TB-related deaths by 95% between 2015 – 2035. We determined the trend of case notification rates (CNRs) and treatment outcomes of TB cases with and without HIV co-infection in rural Uganda to provide an interim evaluation of progress towards this global target in rural settings.MethodsWe extracted retrospective programmatic data on notified TB cases and treatment outcomes from 2015 – 2019 for eight districts in rural Uganda from the District Health Information System 2. We estimated CNRs as the number of TB cases per 100,000 population. Treatment success rate (TSR) was calculated as the sum of TB cure and treatment completion for each year. Trends were estimated using the Mann–Kendall test.ResultsA total of 11,804 TB cases, of which 5,811 (49.2%) were HIV co-infected, were notified. The overall TB CNR increased by 3.7-fold from 37.7 to 141.3 cases per 100,000 population in 2015 and 2019 respectively. The increment was observed among people with HIV (from 204.7 to 730.2 per 100,000, p = 0.028) and HIV-uninfected individuals (from 19.9 to 78.7 per 100,000, p = 0.028).There was a decline in the TSR among HIV-negative TB cases from 82.1% in 2015 to 63.9% in 2019 (p = 0.086). Conversely, there was an increase in the TSR among HIV co-infected TB cases (from 69.9% to 81.9%, p = 0.807).ConclusionThe CNR increased among people with and without HIV while the TSR reduced among HIV-negative TB cases. There is need to refocus programs to address barriers to treatment success among HIV-negative TB cases.

Combined assessment of tuberculosis case notification rate and infection control at health facilities of Dale districts, Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia.

BackgroundMycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) is the deadliest disease that claims millions of deaths globally. Ethiopia is among the countries heavily hit by the disaster. Despite the effective directly observed treatment and TB infection control (TBIC) measures provided by the world health organization (WHO), the rate of new cases increased daily throughout the country. Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at highest risk serving without having the necessary facility in place while overcrowding of patients exacerbated TB transmission. The study aimed to assess TBIC implementation and analyze case notification rate (CNR) of smear-positive pulmonary TB in the selected health facilities at Dale district, Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia.MethodsSeven health care facilities have been visited in the study area and smear-positive pulmonary TB notification rate was determined retrospectively during the years 2012 to 2014. Data on smear positive test results and demographic characteristics were collected from the TB unit registries. A structured questionnaire, facility survey, and observation checklists were used to assess the presence of TBIC plans at the health care facilities.ResultsThe overall case notification rate of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis was 5.3% among all 7696 TB suspected patients. The odds of being diagnosed with smear-positive TB were 24% more in males than in females (adj OR = 1.24, 95% CI: (1.22, 1.55). Moreover, in the study area, only 28% of the facilities have been practiced TB infection control and 71% of the facilities assigned a focal person for the TBIC plan. The implementation of environmental control measures in the facilities was ranged between 16–83%. N95 particulate respirators were found only in 14% of the facilities.ConclusionTB CNR in Dale district was low. Moreover, implementations of TBIC in Dale district health facilities were poor when the survey was done. Hence, urgent measures should be taken to reverse the burden of TB.

Community-based active case-finding interventions for tuberculosis: a systematic review

SummaryBackgroundCommunity-based active case-finding interventions might identify and treat more people with tuberculosis disease than standard case detection. We aimed to assess whether active case-finding interventions can affect tuberculosis epidemiology in the wider community.MethodsWe did a systematic review by searching PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane Library for studies that compared tuberculosis case notification rates, tuberculosis disease prevalence, or tuberculosis infection prevalence or incidence in children, between populations exposed and unexposed to active case-finding interventions. We included studies published in English between Jan 1, 1980, and April 13, 2020. Studies of active case-finding in the general population, in populations perceived to be at high risk for tuberculosis, and in closed settings were included, whereas studies of tuberculosis screening at health-care facilities, among household contacts, or among children only, and studies that screened fewer than 1000 people were excluded. To estimate effectiveness, we extracted or calculated case notification rates, prevalence of tuberculosis disease, and incidence or prevalence of tuberculosis infection in children, and compared ratios of these outcomes between groups that were exposed or not exposed to active case-finding interventions.Results27 883 abstracts were screened and 988 articles underwent full text review. 28 studies contributed data for analysis of tuberculosis case notifications, nine for prevalence of tuberculosis disease, and two for incidence or prevalence of tuberculosis infection in children. In one cluster-randomised trial in South Africa and Zambia, an active case-finding intervention based on community mobilisation and sputum drop-off did not affect tuberculosis prevalence, whereas, in a cluster-randomised trial in Vietnam, an active case-finding intervention based on sputum tuberculosis tests for everyone reduced tuberculosis prevalence in the community. We found inconsistent, low-quality evidence that active case-finding might increase the number of cases of tuberculosis notified in populations with structural risk factors for tuberculosis.InterpretationCommunity-based active case-finding for tuberculosis might be effective in changing tuberculosis epidemiology and thereby improving population health if delivered with high coverage and intensity. If possible, active case-finding projects should incorporate a well designed, robust evaluation to contribute to the evidence base and help elucidate which delivery methods and diagnostic strategies are most effective.FundingWHO Global TB Programme.

Tuberculosis case notifications in Malawi have strong seasonal and weather-related trends

Seasonal trends in tuberculosis (TB) notifications have been observed in several countries but are poorly understood. Explanatory factors may include weather, indoor crowding, seasonal respiratory infections and migration. Using enhanced citywide TB surveillance data collected over nine years in Blantyre, Malawi, we set out to investigate how weather and seasonality affect temporal trends in TB case notification rates (CNRs) across different demographic groups. We used data from prospective enhanced surveillance between April 2011 and December 2018, which systematically collected age, HIV status, sex and case notification dates for all registering TB cases in Blantyre. We retrieved temperature and rainfall data from the Global Surface Summary of the Day weather station database. We calculated weekly trends in TB CNRs, rainfall and temperature, and calculated 10-week moving averages. To investigate the associations between rainfall, temperature and TB CNRs, we fitted generalized linear models using a distributed lag nonlinear framework. The estimated Blantyre population increased from 1,068,151 in April 2011 to 1,264,304 in December 2018, with 15,908 TB cases recorded. Overall annual TB CNRs declined from 222 to 145 per 100,000 between 2012 and 2018, with the largest declines seen in HIV-positive people and adults aged over 20 years old. TB CNRs peaks occurred with increasing temperature in September and October before the onset of increased rainfall, and later in the rainy season during January-March, after sustained rainfall. When lag between a change in weather and TB case notifications was accounted for, higher average rainfall was associated with an equivalent six weeks of relatively lower TB notification rates, whereas there were no changes in TB CNR associated with change in average temperatures. TB CNRs in Blantyre have a seasonal pattern of two cyclical peaks per year, coinciding with the start and end of the rainy season. These trends may be explained by increased transmission at certain times of the year, by limited healthcare access, by patterns of seasonal respiratory infections precipitating cough and care-seeking, or by migratory patterns related to planting and harvesting during the rainy season.

The Impact of the Evolving Human Immunodeficiency Virus Response on the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in South African Children and Adolescents.

Few studies have evaluated tuberculosis control in children and adolescents. We used routine tuberculosis surveillance data to quantify age- and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-stratified trends over time and investigate the relationship between tuberculosis, HIV, age, and sex. All children and adolescents (0-19 years) routinely treated for drug-susceptible tuberculosis in South Africa and recorded in a de-duplicated national electronic tuberculosis treatment register (2004-2016) were included. Age- and HIV-stratified tuberculosis case notification rates (CNRs) were calculated in four age bands: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 years. The association between HIV infection, age, and sex in children and adolescents with tuberculosis was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Of 719 400 children and adolescents included, 339 112 (47%) were 0-4 year olds. The overall tuberculosis CNR for 0-19 year olds declined by 54% between 2009 and 2016 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], .45-.47). Trends varied by age and HIV, with the smallest reductions (2013-2016) in HIV-positive 0-4 year olds (IRR = 0.90; 95% CI, .85-.95) and both HIV-positive (IRR = .84; 95% CI, .80-.88) and HIV-negative (IRR = 0.89; 95% CI, .86-.92) 15-19 year olds. Compared with 0- to 4-year-old males, odds of HIV coinfection among 15-19 year olds were nearly twice as high in females (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.49; 95% CI, 2.38-2.60) than in males (aOR = 1.35; 95% CI, 1.29-1.42). South Africa's national response to the HIV epidemic has made a substantial contribution to the observed declining trends in tuberculosis CNRs in children and adolescents. The slow decline of tuberculosis CNRs in adolescents and young HIV-positive children is concerning. Understanding how tuberculosis affects children and adolescents beyond conventional age bands and by sex can inform targeted tuberculosis control strategies.

Spatio-temporal analysis of socio-economic characteristics for pulmonary tuberculosis in Sichuan province of China, 2006\u20132015

BackgroundThe disease burden caused by pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Sichuan province still persisted at a high level, and large spatial variances were presented across regional distribution disparities. The socio-economic factors were suspected to affect the population of TB notification, we aimed to describe TB case notification rate (CNR) and identify which factors influence TB epidemic are necessary for the prevention and control of the disease in Sichuan province.MethodsA retrospective cross-sectional study and an ecological spatial analysis was conducted to quantify the presence and location of spatial clusters of TB by the Moran’s I index and examined these patterns with socio-economic risk factors by hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model.ResultsA total of 630,009 pulmonary TB cases were notified from 2006 to 2015 in 181 counties of Sichuan province. The CNR decreased year by year since 2007, from 88.70 to 61.37 per 100,000 persons. The spatial heterogeneities of CNR were observed during the study periods. Global Moran’s I index varied from 0.23 to 0.44 with all P-value < 0.001. The Bayesian spatio-temporal model with parametric spatio-temporal interactions was chosen as the best model according to the minimum of Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)(19,379.01), and in which the quadratic form of time was taken. The proportion of age group and education year were all associated with CNR after adjusting the spatial effect, temporal effect and spatio-temporal interactions. TB CNR increased by 10.2% [95% credible interval (CI): 6.7–13.7%] for every 1-standard-deviation increase in proportion of age group and decreased by 23% (95% CI: 13.7–32.7%) for every 1-standard-deviation increase in education year.ConclusionsThere were spatial clusters of TB notification rate in Sichuan province from 2006 to 2015, and heavy TB burden was mainly attributed to aging and low socioeconomic status including poor education. Thus, it is more important to pay more attention to the elderly population and improve socioeconomic status including promoting education level in Sichuan province to reduce the TB burden.

Trend of tuberculosis case notifications and their determinants in Africa and South-East Asia during 2000–2018: a longitudinal analysis of national data from 58 countries

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) regions of Africa and South-East Asia are the epicentres of the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. This study aimed at examining the trend and determinants of TB case notifications in the two regions during 2000–2018.Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of yearly, new TB cases notified to the WHO. We obtained data on potential determinants for the 58 countries in the two regions during 2000–2018. Multivariable longitudinal fixed-effects regression analysis was used to quantify the association between the determinants and TB notifications.Results: During 2000–2018, TB notifications and incidence declined in Africa. In South-East Asia, case notifications increased while the incidence declined, on average, by 2% per year during the same period. After controlling for health, socioeconomic indicators, country and year fixed-effects, each 1% increase in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and the TB treatment success was associated with a decrease per 100,000 population in the TB case notification rate of −1.62 (95% CI: −4.93, −1.90; p = .037) and −0.91(95% CI: −1.54, −0.28; p = .005) respectively. Similarly, each 1-year increase in the life expectancy at birth resulted in a decrease in TB case notification rates of −6.64 (95% CI: −12.32, −0.95; p = .037). By contrast, a 1% increase in the unemployment rate resulted in an increase in TB notification rate of 3.49 cases (95% CI: 0.19, 6.79; p = .039).Conclusion: Improving population health and the broad scale-up of ART coverage could complement existing TB treatment coverage and cure programmes to drive down new cases in Africa and South-East Asia.

Trend analysis of tuberculosis case notifications with scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and roll-out of isoniazid preventive therapy in Zimbabwe, 2000–2018

ObjectivesAntiretroviral therapy (ART) and isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) are known to have a tuberculosis (TB) protective effect at the individual level among people living with HIV (PLHIV). In Zimbabwe where...

High urban tuberculosis case notification rates can be misleading: evidence from an urban setting in Ethiopia

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem. Its magnitude the required interventions are affected by changes in socioeconomic condition and urbanization. Ethiopia is among the thirty high burden countries with increasing effort to end TB. We aimed to describe the case notification rate (CNR) for urban tuberculosis (TB) and estimate the percentage of TB patients who are not from the catchment population.MethodsThis cross-sectional study used data from TB registers from 2014/15 to 2017/18. We calculated the CNR and treatment success rate for the study area.ResultsOf 2892 TB cases registered, 2432 (84%) were from Adama City, while 460 (16%) were from other sites. The total TB CNR (including TB cases from Adama and other sites) was between 153 and 218 per 100,000 population. However, the adjusted TB CNR (excluding cases outside Adama City) was lower, between 135 and 179 per 100,000. Of 1737 TB cases registered, 1652 (95%) were successfully treated. About 16% of TB cases notified contributing to CNR of 32 per 100,000 population is contributed by TB cases coming from outside of Adama city.The CNR of 32 per 100,000 population (ranging from 18 to 46 per 100,000) for Adama City was from the patients that came from the surrounding rural areas who sought care in the town.ConclusionAlthough the TB CNR in Adama City was higher than the national CNR, about one-fifth of TB cases came from other sites-which led to overestimating the urban CNR and underestimating the CNR of neighboring areas. TB programs should disaggregate urban TB case notification data by place of residence to accurately identify the proportion of missed cases.