Trust In Democratic Institutions Research Articles

The Seed of Doubt: Examining the Role of Alternative Social and News Media for the Birth of a Conspiracy Theory

Consuming conspiracy theories erodes trust in democratic institutions, while conspiracy beliefs demotivate democratic participation, posing a potential threat to democracy. The proliferation of social media, especially the emergence of numerous alternative platforms with minimal moderation, has greatly facilitated the dissemination and consumption of conspiracy theories. Nevertheless, there remains a dearth of knowledge concerning the origin and evolution of specific conspiracy theories across different platforms. This study aims to address this gap through a large-scale, cross-platform examination of the genesis of new conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Jeffrey Epstein. Through a (semi-) automated content analysis conducted on a distinctive dataset comprising N = 8,020,314 Epstein-related posts posted on both established platforms ( Twitter, Reddit) and alternative platforms ( Gab and 4Chan), we demonstrate that conspiracy theories emerge early and influence public discourse well in advance of reports from established media sources. Our data shows that users of the studied platforms immediately turn to conspirational explanations, exhibiting skepticism towards the official representation of events. Especially on alternative platforms, this skepticism swiftly transformed into unwarranted conspiracy theorizing, partly bolstered by references to alternative news media sources. The present study shows how conspirational explanations thrive in low information environments and how alternative media plays a role in turning rational skepticism into unwarranted conspiracy theories.

Building Resilience in the European Union in Times of Polycrisis and Challenges in the Cognitive Domain

This aim of this publication is to draw attention to the need to build resilience in the societies and Member States of the European Union in times of “polycrisis” and challenges in the cognitive domain. Following an analysis of global risks and hybrid threats, as well as the emergence of artificial intelligence in today's communication and security environment, certain recommendations and conclusions are drawn to enable the EU to exploit its potential to be a “multidimensional power”, overcoming non-kinetic challenges to vulnerabilities in democratic societies, citizens' minds and emotions. In this research, a range of political science analysis methods were employed. In addition, the “mind maps” technique of the British psychologist Tony Buzan was implemented by enabling the synthesis of ideas through visual representations. On the eve of the European elections in 2024, the publication draws key conclusions and recommendations for overcoming the challenges of desinformation, perception management and psychological manipulation, which undermine trust in democratic institutions and prevent decision-makers from countering them. These include: building resilience through education, media literacy, critical thinking, digital competencies, mental toughness; the ability to think not only fast but also slow; the application of exponential design to strategic thinking; multilateralism and close cooperation with NATO.

Infrastructure for Peace and Peaceful Elections in Ghana: 2012–2020

Ghana's democratic progress in the Fourth Republic is often linked to the management of peaceful elections, successful political alternations, and some public trust in democratic institutions. However, pockets of violence have also marred and derailed some progress. While the capacity to reduce political tensions and resolve electoral disputes has gained significant scholarly attention, scholars still overlook the role of infrastructure for peace (I4P) in the analysis. Focusing on the Ghanaian National Peace Council, this qualitative study examines the extent to which I4P prevents electoral disputes, what its strengths and challenges are, and how the ongoing challenges might be remedied. Findings on peace accords, election observation, and policy dialogue processes were significant before, during, and after electoral manifestations. A formalized I4P was also productive through institutional partnerships. However, institutionalization within governmental structures and its consequential budgetary limitations necessitate prudent management of its peace fund to facilitate emergent conflict situations.

A Toolkit for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Parliamentary Public Engagement

There is a growing acceptance among Australian parliaments that enhancing the quality and diversity of engagement between the public and Australian parliaments is essential to preserving trust in democratic institutions and managing community expectations of transparency and accountability for parliamentary lawmaking and government decision-making. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, digital engagement techniques became increasingly attractive to parliaments with the potential to improve both the quality and efficiency of public engagement in lawmaking, savings, and possible improvements in democratic participation. To capitalise on these potential benefits, and to avoid any unjustifiable risks, parliaments must understand the importance of connecting the people to their parliaments and which practices and technologies could be used to improve the quality and diversity of public engagement with parliaments in Australia. Drawing upon insights shared during a series of international workshops on public engagement by the International Parliamentary Engagement Network (‘IPEN’), this article aims to describe the key ingredients for effective evaluation of public engagement by parliaments and share the toolkit developed by the IPEN workshops.

Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine and its Impact on Climate Politics

The Russian invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 represented not only attempts to erase Ukrainian sovereignty but were also linked to a larger campaign by the Kremlin to undermine trust in democratic institutions, scientific data, and resilience of Western societies. This form of hybrid warfare has long taken a particular focus on energy systems, both in attempts to maintain Russian oil and gas exports, and to target energy infrastructure in invaded states like Ukraine. This article briefly traces the origins of the Russian government’s “assault on truth,” revealing how the information battlespace has affected global climate politics. The disruption of climate politics has long been a goal of the Kremlin and its allies – we argue that the ongoing energy crisis must be approached carefully, with particular attention to countering anti-science and anti-climate efforts.

Can AI communication tools increase legislative responsiveness and trust in democratic institutions?

Smart replies, writing enhancements, and virtual assistants powered by artificial intelligence (AI) language technologies are becoming part of consumer products and everyday experiences. This study explores the opportunities and risks of using language-generating AI systems in politics to increase legislative responsiveness. Legislators receive a large volume of constituent communication and often cannot devote individual consideration and timely response to each. Here, AI language technologies may allow legislators to process constituent communication more efficiently. For example, AI writing tools can suggest reply snippets when a staffer responds to a common concern. However, legislative human-AI collaboration could reduce constituent trust or undermine the representative process. In two experiments, we compared constituents' impressions of human-written legislative correspondence to correspondences partially or fully generated by GPT-3, a state-of-the-art language model. Our results suggest that legislative correspondence generated by AI with human oversight may be received favorably and increase constituent trust compared to generic auto-responses that busy legislators may employ. However, poorly performing AI language technologies may damage confidence in the legislator. Our findings highlight the potential and risks of introducing AI-mediated communication to the representation process. We discuss the importance of disclosure, transparency, and maintaining human-in-the-loop accountability for political deployments of AI language technologies.

Immigration and Public Support for Political Systems in Europe

Immigration and growing diversity have been linked with pathologies such as lower social capital, the rise of authoritarian populists, intergroup conflict, and perhaps the breakdown of democracy itself. At the heart of this complex is a question relating to migration and political culture: whether immigration erodes the attitudes that sustain and legitimize democratic political systems. This paper takes a time-series, cross-sectional approach to this question by analyzing the effects of a comprehensive set of measures of immigration on dynamic estimates of trust in democratic institutions, satisfaction with democracy, and democratic support from 30 European countries. The results show that immigration does not undermine any of these forms of public support for political systems. Indeed, under some circumstances, immigration may increase public trust in democratic institutions.

Characteristics of Older People’s Belief in Real and Fake News

Introduction. The spread of fake news on the internet is an increasingly serious problem. When analysing belief in fake news, people are usually treated as homogeneous group, however, previous studies suggest that different groups may exist. This study aims to identify clusters of older people according to their level of belief in real and fake news. Methods. 504 people aged 50 to 90 years (M=64.37, SD=9.10) participated in the study. Belief in true and false news was assessed using 10 news headlines (six false, four true). Respondents’ vaccination intentions and trust in democratic institutions were assessed. A cluster analysis was performed to distinguish between groups of respondents. Results. Four clusters were identified and replicated: moderately believing in fake and real news; believing in real but not in fake news; tending not to believe in either real or fake news; and tending to believe in both real and fake news. Individuals who fell into the cluster of believers in both real and fake news had lower intentions to vaccinate against COVID-19 and lower trust in political institutions. Conclusions. The study provides evidence that people aren’t homogeneous in their belief in fake and real news, and four meaningful clusters can be distinguished.

Rallying Around the Flag in Times of COVID-19: Societal Lockdown and Trust in Democratic Institutions

Rallying Around the Flag in Times of COVID-19: Societal Lockdown and Trust in Democratic Institutions

Who populist voter are? Assessing the presence of common identities’ traits among populist voters in the European Union

Political, economic and, now, health dynamics have caused and continue to cause a worsening of citizens’ living conditions within most of western democracies. The literature highlighted how this contributed to the increase of citizens’ frustration and the drop of their trust in democratic institutions. In this context, a populist upsurge has been registered among all western democracies. Established political parties, media and academics often tend to identify populist voters as merely less educated and ignorant citizens, but is this characterization correct and fully explaining the phenomenon? Who populist voters are? Are they united by common identities? And if it is so, what are the identities and belongings they share? The present paper answers these questions by tracing a profile of populist voters within European Union countries. The results show how populist voters show a statistically significant difference from non-populist ones when comparing demographic, economic, social values, political trust, and perceptions characteristics. However, the modest extent of these differences in most cases questions the effectiveness of the use of the concept of populism in distinguishing it as a political movement with its own transnational characteristics.

Jakość rządzenia, stan psychiczny i postawy wobec rynku i demokracji w krajach Grupy Wyszehradzkiej na tle Europy Północno-Zachodniej

The goals of the study are to: 1. examine the impact of the quality of public service management on the mental state and attitudes towards the market and democracy in the Visegrád Group countries compared to Northwest Europe; 2. identify different mechanisms connecting the quality of governance with the mental state and attitudes towards the market and democracy in both groups of countries and their interpretations in terms of the neo-institutional theory. The quality of governance has been assessed based on the respondents’ opinions about the provision of public services. Low evaluation of the quality of public services and the belief in privileges and corruption in their distribution coexist with a poorer mental state, antimarket attitudes, less trust in democratic institutions and dissatisfaction with democracy.Differences: 1. Institutional exclusivity is relatively greater in the Visegrád Group. Contesting attitudes towards the market and democracy are in a relatively higher degree a consequence of the low quality of services and low incomes. 2. In these countries, public services relatively weakly compensate for income inequalities. 3. In Northwest Europe, contesting attitudes towards democratic and market institutions are the consequence of privileges and corruption in the distribution of services. 4. In the Visegrád Group countries, privileges and corruption are greater, but less frustrating. Institutional exclusiveness is slightly more accepted in the Visegrád Group countries than in Northwest Europe. This state of affairs is the consequence of equipping public administration with resources and cultural patterns. If the administrative resources were the same in all the compared countries, the level of exclusivity would be relatively higher in the Visegrád countries for cultural reasons.

Undignified Jurispathy: Muslim Family Law at Ghanaian Courts

Ghana has inherited colonial legislation that recognizes and regulates the consequences of Muslim family law (MFL). However, in practice, courts almost never recognize the normative existence of MFL and systematically dismiss the cases on procedural grounds without discussing their merits. What explains the judiciary’s attitudes toward Islamic law? Why do Ghanaian courts refuse to engage with MFL in substantive terms? How does this judicial policy affect Ghana’s pluri-legal system and its multireligious democracy? Drawing on Robert Cover’s insights and concepts from “Nomos and Narrative,” the present article suggests that Ghanaian courts engage in “undignified” jurispathy against Islamic law. Having inherited the colonial narrative that Islamic law is not a native law of the land, the judiciary destroys the legal meanings built around Islamic law without discussing what is at stake. This perpetuates normative tensions between the state and Muslim groups, undermines the rule of law, and erodes public trust in democratic institutions. Utilizing the theoretical and empirical insights drawn from the Ghanaian case, the article urges scholars to expand the scope of their inquiries to include instances of undignified jurispathy to better understand state-religion relations and constitutional debates in pluri-legal societies.

Popular political attitudes in Samoa: Findings of the Pacific Attitudes Survey

AbstractPopular political attitudes surveys have been conducted globally for several decades, but the Pacific region remains an exception. This paper presents the findings of the first Pacific Attitudes Survey (PAS), conducted in Samoa from December 2020‐January 2021. Drawing on a nationally representative sample of Samoans of voting‐age (n = 1319) the PAS gauges the attitudes of ordinary Samoans to their democracy, levels of popular trust in institutions, attitudes towards the role of government, and to women's participation in politics. Findings reveal high levels of support for democracy and trust in democratic institutions. At the same time, popular political attitudes highlight a distinct model of Samoan democracy, in which respect for modern democratic norms is tempered and entwined with deeper traditions of Samoan community and identity.

The hidden threat of cyber-attacks – undermining public confidence in government

ABSTRACT This paper argues that the primary threat posed by cyber-attacks is not cataclysmic physical destruction - but rather more insidious societal risks such as reduced trust in government. To test this claim, we collect and analyze survey data in the immediate aftermath of a ransomware attack against a Düsseldorf hospital (n = 707). We find that exposure to cyber-attacks significantly diminishes public confidence among segments of the population who are exposed to the attack. Cyber-attacks exploit particular qualities of cyberspace that are directly tied to matters of public confidence, causing a precipitous drop in public trust. Second, we identify the psychological mechanism underpinning this effect, with anger and dread intervening in countervailing directions. Feelings of anger triggered by exposure to cyber-attacks amplify public confidence, while the more potent feeling of dread reduces confidence. Our findings verify that governments cannot rely on a unifying social-cohesion effect following cyber-attacks since the public is liable to perceive the authorities as incapable of defending against future threats. We conclude by discussing why escalating cyber-threats can cause severe social upheaval and reduce trust in democratic institutions, and discuss what constitutes exposure to the new generation of attacks in cyberspace.

Affective Polarization: Over Time, Through the Generations, and During the Lifespan

The continual rise of affective polarization in the United States harms trust in democratic institutions. Scholars cite processes of ideological and social sorting of the partisan coalitions in the electorate as contributing to the rise of affective polarization, but how do these processes relate to one another? Most scholarship implicitly assumes period effects—that people change their feelings toward the parties uniformly and contemporaneously as they sort. However, it is also possible that sorting and affective polarization link with one another as a function of age or cohort effects. In this paper, I estimate age, period and cohort effects on affective polarization, partisan strength, and ideological sorting. I find that affective polarization increases over time, but also as people age. Age-related increases in affective polarization occur as a function of increases in partisan strength, and for Republicans, social sorting. Meanwhile, sorting only partially explains period effects. These effects combine such that each cohort enters the electorate more affectively polarized than the last.

Stable Support for Democracy in East and Southeast Asia? Examining Citizens’ Trust in Democratic Institutions

Recent democratic regressions and crises suggest democracy is at risk across East and Southeast Asia. One of the factors that can determine democratic stability are citizens’ attitudes. While previous research has concentrated on support for democracy-in-principle, this contribution argues that it is political trust, i.e. support for democracy-in-practice, which is crucial for democratic stability. For democracies to be stable, political trust should be high as well as rooted in long-term factors like liberal democratic value orientations or social trust to protect it from short-term fluctuations following economic crises or political scandals. This contribution therefore examines not only the current levels and development of political trust but also whether it is influenced more by long-term factors (liberal democratic value orientations, social trust) or short-term factors (economic performance evaluations, incumbent support). The empirical analysis shows political trust in five East and Southeast Asian democracies (Indonesia, Japan, Mongolia, South Korea, Taiwan) to be mostly mediocre and primarily dependent on economic performance evaluations and incumbent support. Among the five democracies, citizens in Japan appear most resilient to democratic regressions; on the other hand, Taiwanese democracy seems least equipped to master future crises.

The Role of the Election Supervisory Board (BAWASLU) in Preventing Criminal Actions of Corruption in Elections in Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effectiveness of the role of the Election Supervisory Body (Bawaslu) in preventing corruption in elections in Indonesia. Indonesia as a country that adheres to a democratic government system as referred to in Article 1 paragraph (2) of the 1945 Constitution, where the general election is a means of implementing people's sovereignty which is carried out directly, openly, honestly and fairly. Therefore, the law serves to resolve disputes or problems. It is hoped that the holding of elections can maintain public trust in democratic institutions. Where currently corruption is still happening in the implementation of elections. This research method is descriptive with the type of normative juridical research, using a statutory approach and a conceptual approach. The results of the study show that there are still many violations in the form of criminal acts of corruption and there are still many election disputes that occur in the implementation of elections. Based on the results of the study indicate that the role of Bawaslu in preventing corruption in elections is considered less than optimal. Although the establishment of the Integrated Law Enforcement Center (Gakkumdu) functions as a center for resolving election crimes which is a repressive effort, it has not provided a deterrent effect for perpetrators of corruption in the administration of elections. Based on this, the authors view that preventive efforts are seen as more effective efforts in preventing corruption in elections in Indonesia. Therefore, it is important to realize elections with integrity through optimizing the role of Bawaslu in fostering an anti-corruption culture

Tackling Disinformation in Times of Crisis: The European Commission’s Response to the Covid-19 Infodemic and the Feasibility of a Consumer-centric Solution

Since 2016, the European Commission has sought to take a proactive stance in addressing disinformation, with this stance evidently influenced by the divisive nature of disinformation and its ability to dissuade participation and trust in democratic institutions. Yet as the coronavirus pandemic brought fear and uncertainty to Europe and the wider world, how well equipped was the Commission’s approach for the onslaught of health disinformation which accompanied the pandemic? Reflecting on the EU’s soft law approach both before and after this ‘Infodemic,’ this article critically analyses the inherent difficulties in regulating disinformation and looks ahead to the Commission’s proposed approach into the future. Finally, considering these inherent regulatory difficulties and the impact of the Infodemic, this paper reflects upon the feasibility of a ‘consumer-centric’ solution to tackling disinformation in the European Union.

Modeling the emergence of affective polarization in the social media society.

Rising political polarization in recent decades has hampered and gridlocked policymaking, as well as weakened trust in democratic institutions. These developments have been linked to the idea that new media technology fosters extreme views and political conflict by facilitating self-segregation into “echo chambers” where opinions are isolated and reinforced. This opinion-centered picture has recently been challenged by an emerging political science literature on “affective polarization”, which suggests that current polarization is better understood as driven by partisanship emerging as a strong social identity. Through this lens, politics has become a question of competing social groups rather than differences in policy position. Contrary to the opinion-centered view, this identity-centered perspective has not been subject to dynamical formal modeling, which generally permits hypotheses about micro-level explanations for macro-level phenomena to be systematically tested and explored. We here propose a formal model that links new information technology to affective polarization via social psychological mechanisms of social identity. Our results suggest that new information technology catalyzes affective polarization by lowering search and interaction costs, which shifts the balance between centrifugal and centripetal forces of social identity. We find that the macro-dynamics of social identity is characterized by two stable regimes on the societal level: one fluid regime, in which identities are weak and social connections heterogeneous, and one solid regime in which identities are strong and groups homogeneous. We also find evidence of hysteresis, meaning that a transition into a fragmented state is not readily reversed by again increasing those costs. This suggests that, due to systemic feedback effects, if polarization passes certain tipping points, we may experience run-away political polarization that is highly difficult to reverse.

How the Poor Data Privacy Regime Contributes to Misinformation Spread and Democratic Erosion

Disinformation campaigns reduce trust in democracy, harm democratic institutions, and endanger public health and safety. While disinformation and misinformation are not new, their rapid and widespread dissemination has only recently been made possible by technological developments that enable never-before-seen levels of mass communication and persuasion.Today, a mix of social media, algorithms, personal profiling, and psychology enable a new dimension of political messaging—a dimension that disinformers exploit for their political gain. These enablers share a root cause—the poor data privacy and security regime in the U.S.At its core, democracy requires independent thought, personal autonomy, and trust in democratic institutions. A public that thinks critically and acts independently can check the government’s power and authority. However, when the public is misinformed, it lacks the autonomy to freely elect and check its representatives and the fundamental basis for democracy erodes. This Article addresses a root cause of misinformation dissemination —the absence of strong data privacy protections in the U.S.—and its effects on democracy. This Article explains, from a technological perspective, how personal information is used for personal profiling, and how personal profiling contributes to the mass interpersonal persuasion that disinformation campaigns exploit to advance their political goals.