Tropical Weather Systems Research Articles

Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian oscillation after about 27 days.

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system that has an important influence in the tropics and beyond; however, many of its characteristics are poorly understood, including their initiation and termination. Here we define Madden-Julian events as contiguous time periods with an active MJO, and we show that both the durations and the sizes of these events are well described by a double power-law distribution. Thus, small events have no characteristic scale, and the same for large events; nevertheless, both types of events are separated by a characteristic duration of about 27 days (this corresponds to half a cycle, roughly). Thus, after 27 days, there is a sharp increase in the probability that an event becomes extinct. We find that this effect is independent of the starting and ending phases of the events, which seems to point to an internal mechanism of exhaustion rather than to the effect of an external barrier. Our results would imply an important limitation of the MJO as a driver of subseasonal predictability.

Sources of predictability of synoptic‐scale rainfall during the West African summer monsoon

AbstractNumerical‐model‐based forecasts of precipitation exhibit poor skill over northern tropical Africa when compared with climatology‐based forecasts and with other tropical regions. However, as recently demonstrated, purely data‐driven forecasts based on spatio‐temporal dependences inferred from gridded satellite rainfall estimates show promise for the prediction of the 24‐hr precipitation occurrence rate in this region. The present work explores this potential further by advancing the statistical model and providing meteorological interpretations of the performance results. Advances include (a) the use of a recently developed correlation metric, the Coefficient of Predictive Ability (CPA), to identify predictors, (b) forecast evaluation with robust reliability diagrams and score decompositions, (c) a study domain over tropical Africa nested in a considerably enlarged spatio‐temporal domain to identify coherent propagating features, and (d) the introduction of a novel coherent‐linear‐propagation factor to quantify the coherence of propagating signals. The statistical forecast is compared with a climatology‐based benchmark, the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational ensemble forecast, and a statistically postprocessed ensemble forecast. All methods show poor skill within the main rainbelt over northern tropical Africa, where differences in Brier scores between the different approaches are hardly statistically significant. However, the data‐driven forecast outperforms the other methods along the fringes of the rainbelt, where meridional rainfall gradients are large. The coherent‐linear‐propagation factor, in concert with metrics of convective available potential energy and convective instability, reveals that high stochasticity in the rainbelt limits predictability. At the fringes of the rainbelt, the data‐driven approach leverages coherent precipitation features associated with propagating tropical weather systems such as African Easterly Waves.

Extreme precipitation at Padang, Sumatra triggered by convectively coupled Kelvin waves

AbstractConvectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are tropical weather systems that travel eastward along the equatorial waveguide and have previously been linked to 90% of flooding events in Sumatra, Indonesia. Here, the processes through which CCKWs influence convection to produce extreme precipitation are investigated, with a focus on Padang, a city on the west coast of Sumatra. Extreme precipitation days at Padang, defined as days when the daily total precipitation exceeds the percentile, are found to be 59% more likely to occur given the presence of a CCKW. We find that CCKWs modulate the diurnal cycle to produce extreme precipitation. This is achieved firstly through providing low‐level moisture and convergence that acts to couple the Kelvin wave to the convection. Secondly, the CCKW acts to displace the convergence zone towards Padang, such that it experiences rainfall that persists throughout the night and peaks the following day in the early evening. We examine the case study of a CCKW that passed over Padang on August 21, 2017, bringing extreme precipitation that led to flooding in the West Sumatra region, recording a maximum daily accumulated rainfall of 137 mm. This case study showed remarkably similar characteristics in its propagation, structure, and precipitation patterns to composite studies of CCKWs. The performance of a suite of convection‐permitting configurations of the UK Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), embedded within a parameterised convection global model, in forecasting this CCKW is evaluated. In general, all configurations of the model capture this event reasonably well. We find that extending the western boundary of the high‐resolution model domain from 90°E to 65°E leads to a significantly improved forecast, as the CCKW development over the Indian Ocean is captured more accurately by the high‐resolution nested model, compared with the lower‐resolution global driving model.

The dynamics of slow‐moving coherent cyclonic potential vorticity anomalies and their links to heavy rainfall over the eastern seaboard of Australia

Heavy rainfall occurs frequently on the subtropical eastern seaboard of Australia (ESB). Many rainfall events are associated with slow‐moving, upper‐level low‐pressure systems. Combined with moisture‐rich easterly winds associated with a surface anticyclone, these systems can produce heavy rainfall, leading to flooding events. Although the general meteorology of these events has been documented, much of the focus has been on surface processes, with limited attention paid previously to the dynamics aloft. Here, we investigate the upper‐level dynamics associated with heavy rainfall events over the ESB with the use of a coherent potential vorticity (PV) minimum climatology on the 330‐K isentropic level. Slow‐moving coherent cyclonic PV anomalies produce more rainfall than fast‐moving anomalies over the ESB. Rossby‐wave breaking is responsible for the development of a slow‐moving coherent cyclonic PV anomaly as well as the commonly observed surface patterns that are necessary for heavy rainfall over the ESB. Slow cyclonic coherent PV anomalies are either transported equatorwards into the Tropics, where they may influence tropical weather systems, or removed from the region by the restoration of the subtropical jet over continental Australia.

Distinct characteristics of western Pacific atmospheric rivers affecting Southeast Asia

The dynamic characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been researched over the western North Pacific and East Asia due to their close linkage to disastrous precipitation extremes, while very little attention has been paid to the AR features from the western Pacific to Southeast Asia. This study aims to quantify the climatology, long-term trends and variability of different AR properties from the western Pacific to Southeast Asia using an objective identification algorithm, the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and the APHRODITE precipitation dataset for the period 1951-2015. The results indicate a belt of frequent AR activities from the western Pacific to the Andaman Sea during the boreal autumn-winter season. The long-term trend analyses show a significantly increasing trend in AR frequency and an eastward shift of AR plumes. These dynamic changes contribute to the increasing trend of extreme precipitation amounts in the coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea. The intraseasonal variability of the AR associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) shows a pronounced enhancement of AR activity in the MJO phase-2 to phase-3 due to the steeper gradient of low-level geopotential height between the Northwestern Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. The modulation is partly explained by the enhanced MJO convection and the adiabatic heating in the vicinity of the trough of the 200-500 hPa geopotential thickness of the region. This study shows that ARs are important mechanisms behind the climatology, trends and variability of the regional precipitation in Southeast Asia. This study implies that more attention is required toward the dynamics of these tropical weather systems, particularly for their interactions with other synoptic processes and their response to future climate warming.

Case study on the influence of synoptic-scale processes on the paired H2O–O3 distribution in the UTLS across a North Atlantic jet stream

Abstract. During a research flight of the Wave-driven ISentropic Exchange (WISE) campaign, which was conducted over the eastern North Atlantic on 1 October 2017, the composition of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) across the North Atlantic jet stream was observed by airborne, range-resolved differential absorption lidar (DIAL) profiles. We investigate how the high variability in the paired H2O and O3 distribution along the two-dimensional lidar cross section is affected by synoptic-scale weather systems, as revealed by the Lagrangian history of the observed air masses. To this aim, the lidar observations are combined with 10 d backward trajectories along which meteorological parameters and derived turbulence diagnostics are traced. The transport and mixing characteristics are then projected to the vertical cross sections of the lidar measurements and to the H2O–O3 phase space to explore linkages with the evolution of synoptic-scale weather systems and their interaction. Tropical, midlatitude, and arctic weather systems in the region of the jet stream and the related transport and mixing explain the complex H2O and O3 distribution to a large extent: O3-rich stratospheric air from the high Arctic interacts with midlatitude air from the North Pacific in a northward-deflected jet stream associated with an anticyclone over the US and forms a filament extending into the tropopause fold beneath the jet stream. In the troposphere, lifting related to convection in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and two tropical cyclones that continuously injected H2O into dry descending air from the tropical Atlantic and Pacific form filamentary H2O structures. One tropical cyclone that transitioned into a midlatitude cyclone lifted moist boundary layer air, explaining the highest tropospheric H2O values. During the two days before the observations, the air with mixed tropospheric and stratospheric characteristics experienced frequent turbulence along the North Atlantic jet stream, indicating a strong influence of turbulence on the formation of the extratropical transition layer (ExTL). This investigation highlights the complexity of stirring and mixing processes and their close connection to interacting tropospheric weather systems from the tropics to the polar regions, which strongly influenced the observed fine-scale H2O and O3 distributions. The identified non-local character of mixing should be kept in mind when interpreting mixing lines in tracer–tracer phase space diagrams.

Klerksdorp Tornado on March 4, 2007, in South Africa: A Synoptic Overview

This research delves into the factors contributing to tornado formation in South Africa, with a specific focus on the Klerksdorp tornado that occurred on March 4, 2007, in Northwest Province. Despite their recurrent occurrence and significant potential for damage, tornadoes have received relatively little attention. Between 1990 and 2014, these weather phenomena incurred estimated costs exceeding half a billion American dollars in addition to other weather-related disasters. In this study, data from multiple observation systems, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) in Germany, and the South African Weather Service (SAWS), were thoroughly analyzed. The findings reveal that the Klerksdorp tornado was linked to a cold front and a cut-off low, which were the dominant weather systems on the day of the tornado. This case study enhances our comprehension of tornado dynamics in South Africa, aiding in improving short-term forecasts and potentially early warning systems. Future research should concentrate on the recurring nature of tornadoes in association with tropical weather systems and locally-driven factors.

Two Extratropical Pathways to Forcing Tropical Convective Disturbances

Abstract Observational evidence of two extratropical pathways to forcing tropical convective disturbances is documented through a statistical analysis of satellite-derived OLR and ERA5 reanalysis. The forcing mechanism and the resulting disturbances are found to strongly depend on the structure of the background zonal wind. Although Rossby wave propagation is prohibited in easterlies, modeling studies have shown that extratropical forcing can still excite equatorial waves through resonance between the tropics and extratropics. Here this “remote” forcing pathway is investigated for the first time in the context of convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Pacific during northern summer. The extratropical forcing is manifested by eddy momentum flux convergence that arises when extratropical eddies propagate into the subtropics and encounter their critical line. This nonlinear forcing has similar wavenumbers and frequencies with Kelvin waves and excites them by projecting onto their meridional eigenstructure in zonal wind, as a form of resonance. This resonance is also evidenced by a momentum budget analysis, which reveals the nonlinear forcing term is essential for maintenance of the waves, while the remaining linear terms are essential for propagation. In contrast, the “local” pathway of extratropical forcing entails the presence of a westerly duct during northern winter that permits Rossby waves to propagate into the equatorial east Pacific, while precluding any sort of resonance with Kelvin waves due to Doppler shifting effects. The intruding disturbances primarily excite tropical “cloud plumes” through quasigeostrophic forcing, while maintaining their extratropical nature. This study demonstrates the multiple roles of the extratropics in forcing in tropical circulations and illuminates how tropical–extratropical interactions and extratropical basic states can provide be a source of predictability at the S2S time scale. Significance Statement This study seeks to understand how circulations in the midlatitudes excite the weather systems in the tropics. Results show that the mechanisms, as well as the types of tropical weather systems excited, are strongly dependent on the mean large-scale wind structure. In particular, when the large-scale wind blows from east to west, a special type of eastward-moving tropical weather system, the Kelvin wave, is excited owing to its resonance with remote eastward-moving weather systems in the extratropics. On the contrary, when the average wind blows from west to east, midlatitude systems are observed to intrude into the lower latitudes and directly force tropical convection, the cloud plumes, while maintaining their extratropical nature. These results speak to how the midlatitudes can excite distinct types of tropical weather systems under different climatological wind regimes. Understanding these tropical weather systems and their interactions with the midlatitudes may ultimately help to improve predictions of weather beyond 2 weeks.

Kelvin and Rossby Wave Contributions to the Mechanisms of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale tropical weather system that generates heavy rainfall over the equatorial Indian and western Pacific Oceans on a 40–50 day cycle. Its circulation propagates eastward around the entire world and impacts tropical cyclone genesis, monsoon onset, and mid-latitude flooding. This study examines the mechanism of the MJO in the Lagrangian atmospheric model (LAM), which has been shown to simulate the MJO accurately, and which predicts that MJO circulations will intensify as oceans warm. The LAM MJO’s first baroclinic circulation is projected onto a Kelvin wave leaving a residual that closely resembles a Rossby wave. The contribution of each wave type to moisture and moist enthalpy budgets is assessed. While the vertical advection of moisture by the Kelvin wave accounts for most of the MJO’s precipitation, this wave also exports a large amount of dry static energy, so that in total, it reduces the column integrated moist enthalpy during periods of heavy precipitation. In contrast, the Rossby wave’s horizontal circulation builds up moisture prior to the most intense convection, and its surface wind perturbations enhance evaporation near the center of MJO convection. Surface fluxes associated with the Kelvin wave help to maintain its circulation outside of the MJO’s convectively active region.

The Basic Equations under Weak Temperature Gradient Balance: Formulation, Scaling, and Types of Convectively Coupled Motions

Abstract The weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation is extended to the basic equations on a rotating plane. The circulation is decomposed into a diabatic component that satisfies WTG balance exactly and a deviation from this balance. Scale analysis of the decomposed basic equations reveals a spectrum of motions, including unbalanced inertio-gravity waves and several systems that are in approximate WTG balance. The balanced systems include equatorial moisture modes with features reminiscent of the MJO, off-equatorial moisture modes that resemble tropical depression disturbances, “mixed systems” in which temperature and moisture play comparable roles in their thermodynamics, and moist quasigeostrophic motions. In the balanced systems the deviation from WTG balance is quasi nondivergent, in nonlinear balance, and evolves in accordance to the vorticity equation. The evolution of the strictly balanced WTG circulation is in turn described by the divergence equation. WTG balance restricts the flow to evolve in the horizontal plane by making the isobars impermeable to vorticity and divergence, even in the presence of diabatically driven vertical motions. The vorticity and divergence equations form a closed system of equations when the irrotational circulation is in WTG balance and the nondivergent circulation is in nonlinear balance. The resulting “WTG equations” may elucidate how interactions between diabatic processes and the horizontal circulation shape slowly evolving tropical motions. Significance Statement Many gaps in our understanding of tropical weather systems still exist and there are still many opportunities to improve their forecasting. We seek to further our understanding of the tropics by extending a framework known as the “weak temperature gradient approximation” to all of the equations for atmospheric flow. Doing this reveals a variety of motions whose scales are similar to observed tropical weather systems. We also show that two equations describe the evolution of slow systems: one that describes tropical thunderstorms and one for the rotating horizontal winds. The two equations may help us understand the dynamics of slowly evolving tropical systems.

Impact of Madden Julian Oscillation on the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the west coast of India

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an eastward propagating convective system that passes over the Indian and Pacific Oceans with a periodicity of 30–90 days and influences most of the tropical weather systems. This study investigates and quantifies the impact of MJO on the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the west coast of India. The work uses TRMM precipitation, profiles of wind and humidity from ERA5 re-analysis and satellite Infrared window channel measurements from GridSat-B1 for the period 2000–2019. Real-time Multivariate MJO index has been used for the identification of active and suppressed MJO phases. Harmonic analysis is used to derive the diurnal and semi-diurnal amplitudes of precipitation. The active MJO phases enhance the diurnal amplitude of precipitation over the west coast with respect to the climatological diurnal cycle, whereas the suppressed phases reduce it. Active phases help in the formation of mesoscale convective cloud systems with much more spatial extension and temporal duration than that in suppressed phase. This kind of convective organization is observed especially during the active MJO phases of monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. The vertical structure of wind and humidity in the troposphere are modified by MJO where the active (suppressed) phase enhances (decreases) them. The overall modification of tropospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and deep convection by MJO can cause anomalous rainfall activity over the west coast.

Daily Precipitation Data for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area from 1930 to 2015

The Metropolitan Zone of Mexico City, as well as the associated basin, includes the territories of Mexico City, some municipalities of the State of Mexico and the state of Hidalgo. In addition, this area is the most densely populated in Mexico. The region is influenced by mid-latitude and tropical weather systems and is vulnerable to extreme hydrometeorological events. In this context, we developed a dataset from the records of 136 geolocated sites that includes daily precipitation data from the CLImate COMputing (CLICOM) project and the Mexico City Water System. The data spans the period from 1930 to 2015 for the rainy months (June–October) from stations with records of 20 or more years. In each recording site, automatic and manual data quality control were performed to verify the consistency of the daily precipitation data. We believe that our highly dense precipitation dataset will be useful for climate, trend and extreme events analysis. Additionally, the data will allow validating simulations of numerical atmospheric models. The dataset is public, and it was previously used in other research to determine areas susceptible to flooding due to heavy rain events and to develop a web mapping application of daily precipitation data.

An Observational Analysis of a Persistent Extreme Precipitation Event in the Post-Flood Season over a Tropical Island in China

Featuring unique tropical land–sea contrast and mesoscale terrain, Hainan Island in China is endowed with active mesoscale convections of special regional characteristics. Persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPs) during the post-flood season, triggered by multi-scale interactions among mid-latitude and tropical weather systems, exhibit notable mesoscale features, long duration and high rainfall rates with low forecasting performance. This study is motivated by a failure to forecast a PEP in two stages with distinct characteristics and predictabilities, in the post-flood season over Hainan Island on 16–18 October 2020. Based on multiple sources of remote sensing and high-resolution rain gauge records, detailed observational analyses were conducted using a flow decomposition method. Water vapor divergence (WVD) and its three components were used to investigate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of two stages with distinct characteristics and predictabilities during this PEP. Decomposed moisture components can be used to determine how and to what extent large- and sub-synoptic scale moisture convergence contributes to PEPs in the tropics, under similar synoptic backgrounds. Joint applications of multiple sources of remote sensing data and flow decomposed WVD are proposed to further assist predicting PEPs in terms of rainfall location and evolution.

Comparison of Extreme Coastal Flooding Events between Tropical and Midlatitude Weather Systems in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays for 1980–2019

Abstract Coastal flooding is one of the most costly and deadly natural hazards facing the U.S. mid-Atlantic region today. Impacts in this heavily populated and economically significant region are caused by a combination of the location’s exposure and natural forcing from storms and sea level rise. Tropical cyclones (TCs) and midlatitude (ML) weather systems each have caused extreme coastal flooding in the region. Skew surge was computed over each tidal cycle for the past 40 years (1980–2019) at several tide gauges in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays to compare the meteorological component of surge for each weather type. Although TCs cause higher mean surges, ML weather systems can produce surges just as severe and occur much more frequently, peaking in the cold season (November–March). Of the top 10 largest surge events, TCs account for 30%–45% in the Delaware and upper Chesapeake Bays and 40%–45% in the lower Chesapeake Bay. This percentage drops to 10%–15% for larger numbers of events in all regions. Mean sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) fields of the top 10 surge events from ML weather systems show a low pressure center west-southwest of “Delmarva” and a semistationary high pressure center to the northeast prior to maximum surge, producing strong easterly winds. Low pressure centers intensify under upper-level divergence as they travel eastward, and the high pressure centers are near the GPH ridges. During lower-bay events, the low pressure centers develop farther south, intensifying over warmer coastal waters, with a south-shifted GPH pattern relative to upper-bay events. Significance Statement Severe coastal flooding is a year-round threat in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region, and impacts are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency. Research into the meteorological contribution to storm surge, separate from mean sea level and tidal phase, will increase the scientific understanding and monitoring of changing atmospheric conditions. Tropical cyclones and midlatitude weather systems both significantly impact the mid-Atlantic region during different times of year. However, climate change may alter the future behavior of these systems differently. Understanding the synoptic environment and quantifying the surge response and subbay geographic variability of each weather system in this region will aid in public awareness, near-term emergency preparation, and long-term planning for coastal storms.

Characteristic Scales of Tropical Convection Based on the Japanese Advanced Himawari-8 Imager Observations

Convective activities play an important role in tropical weather systems. To investigate the characteristic scales of convection, a method combining a principal component (PC) analysis with Fourier decomposition is applied to brightness temperature observations from Advanced Himawari-8 Imager (AHI). Characteristic scales of different modes in tropical convective systems are obtained. The explained variance reduces rapidly from the first to the 60th PC mode by two magnitudes; the horizontal scale decreases from over 2000 km to about 100 km, and the timescale changes from more than 4 days to around 5 h. By a detailed comparison of the first, 20th, 40th, and 60th PC modes, it is found that large-scale (over 2000 km in wavelength) convective activities usually have significant nocturnal enhancement, whereas meso-scale (about 100 km in wavelength) convective activities feature short period and fast change with more intense development in regions of active large-scale convection. This study may be of some importance for the choice of AHI data assimilation cycling interval, the horizontal resolution as well as data thinning for geostationary satellite observations.

Dual-Branched Spatio-Temporal Fusion Network for Multihorizon Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast

A tropical cyclone (TC) is a typical extreme tropical weather system, which could cause serious disasters in transit areas. Accurate TC track forecasting is the key to reducing casualties and damages, however, long-term forecasting of TCs is a challenging problem due to their extremely high dynamics and uncertainty. Existing TC track forecasting methods mainly focus on utilizing a single modality of source data, meanwhile, suffer from limited long-term forecasting capability and high computational complexity. In this article, we propose to address the abovementioned challenges from a new perspective—by utilizing large-scale spatio-temporal multimodal historical data and advanced deep learning techniques. A novel multihorizon TC track forecasting model named dual-branched spatio-temporal fusion network (DBF-Net) is proposed and evaluated. DBF-Net contains a TC features branch that extracts temporal features from 2-D state vectors and a pressure field branch that extracts spatio-temporal features from reanalysis 3-D pressure field. We show that with the abovementioned design, DBF-Net can fully exploit the implicit associations of multimodal data, achieving advantages that unimodal data-based method does not have. Extensive experiments on 39 years of historical TCs track data in the Northwest Pacific show that our DBF-Net achieves significant accuracy improvement compared with previous TCs track forecast methods.

Tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea during the monsoon onset phase

AbstractGenerally, monsoon conditions are unfavourable for cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea due to the strong vertical wind shear present over the basin which prevents the vertical development of cyclones. However, there are instances where tropical cyclones form over the basin during the onset phase of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The current study examines the evolution of the synoptic conditions in the years during 1979–2019 in which a cyclone forms during the onset phase of the ISM. The effect of various atmospheric and oceanic factors, the modulation of wind circulation over the Indian subcontinent and the north Indian Ocean region due to the possible influence of tropical and extratropical weather systems has been taken into consideration. Our analysis indicates that a weak mean monsoonal wind circulation caused by the southward intrusion of subtropical westerlies (at 200 hPa) is conducive for cyclogenesis over the Arabian Sea during the monsoon onset phase. Such a weak onset phase of the monsoon, coupled with the seasonal warm SSTs, may lead to cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea.

Dynamical propagation and growth mechanisms for convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves over the Indian Ocean

AbstractConvectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are high‐impact tropical weather systems that can lead to severe flooding over the Maritime Continent. Here, a vorticity budget for CCKWs over the Indian Ocean is constructed using reanalysis data, to identify the basic mechanisms of eastward propagation and growth. The budget is reasonably well closed, with a small residual/subgrid‐scale term. In the lower troposphere, CCKWs behave like strongly modified theoretical equatorial Kelvin waves. Vortex stretching, from the divergence of the Kelvin wave acting on planetary vorticity (the term), is the sole mechanism by which the vorticity structure of a theoretical Kelvin wave propagates eastward. In the lower and middle troposphere, this term is also the key mechanism for the eastward propagation of CCKWs but, due to subtleties in its structure and phasing linked to a combination of modal structures, it also contributes to growth. Unlike in the theoretical Kelvin wave, other vorticity source terms also play a role in the propagation and growth of CCKWs. In particular, vortex stretching from relative vorticity (the term) is the largest source term, and this leads strongly to growth, through interactions between the background and perturbation vorticity and divergence. Horizontal vorticity advection by the background flow contributes to propagation, and also acts to retard the growth of the CCKW. The sum of the source terms in this complex vorticity budget leads to eastward propagation and growth of CCKWs. The structure and vorticity budget of CCKWs in the upper troposphere is quite unlike that of a Kelvin wave, and appears to arise as a forced response to the lower‐tropospheric structure. The implications for numerical weather prediction and climate simulations are discussed.

Large tropical cyclone track forecast errors of global numerical weather prediction models in western North Pacific basin

Although tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast errors (TFEs) of operational warning centres have substantially decreased in recent decades, there are still many cases with large TFEs. The International Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data are used to study the possible reasons for the large TFE cases and to compare the performance of different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Forty-four TCs in the western North Pacific during the period 2007–2014 with TFEs (+24 to +120 h) larger than the 75th percentile of the annual error distribution (with a total of 93 cases) are identified.Four categories of situations are found to be associated with large TFEs. These include the interaction of the outer structure of the TC with tropical weather systems, the intensity of the TC, the extension of the subtropical high (SH) and the interaction with the westerly trough. The crucial factor of each category attributed to the large TFE is discussed.Among the TIGGE model predictions, the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the UK Met Office generally have a smaller TFE. The performance of different models in different situations is discussed.

Quantifying rainfall seasonality across South Africa on the basis of the relationship between rainfall and temperature

South Africa spans the subtropics at the interface between tropical, subtropical, and temperate weather systems, and consequently experiences distinct summer-, winter- and year-round rainfall zones (SRZ, WRZ and YRZ). Spatio-temporal characteristics of the various weather systems are broadly understood, however, the rainfall seasonality classification at the transition between these rainfall zones remains disputed. This surrounds the complexity of rainfall regimes, however, metrics with dissimilar rainfall seasonality definitions have been applied, hindering comparability. To address this dispute, meteorological data spanning 1987–2016 from 46 weather stations is used to assess the utility of a metric posited to quantify rainfall seasonality through a seasonality score derived from a ratio of monthly rainfall: temperature. This score statistically discriminates SRZ, WRZ and YRZ conditions, fulfilling an important requirement for a metric applied to South Africa. Nelspruit (NEL; score = 1.59) represents the strongest SRZ conditions across 30 eastern and central locations with scores > 0.30. Cape Town Wo (CTW; score = − 1.04) represents the strongest WRZ conditions across seven southwestern Cape and west coast locations with scores < − 0.30. Characterising the SRZ-to-WRZ transition region with scores from − 0.30 to 0.30, nine YRZ locations were classified. With the weakest score, Oudtshoorn (OUD; score = − 0.05), within the Cape Fold mountains, most represents YRZ conditions. Applicability across all weather stations, compatibility with known rainfall drivers, and agreement with known spatial rainfall seasonality characteristics demonstrates the ratio’s utility. Strong correspondence of scores between station and gridded data applications demonstrates additional confidence in the ratio, establishing its value for further application.