Tropical Water Vapor Research Articles

Secular changes in the tropical stratospheric water vapour entry induced by the Indo-Pacific warm pool warming

A decreasing trend in the tropical (30°S ∼ 30°N) stratospheric water vapour (SWV) entry in recent four decades (from 1984 to 2020) is detected based on the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) measurements and the ERA5 reanalysis dataset using linear regression and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis. With the concurrent warming of the sea surface temperature (SST), the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) appears to be the most significant region among the tropical oceans based on correlation analysis. >43% of the decreasing tropical lower SWV trend is likely to be related to the IPWP SST warming. To validate this relationship, two groups of idealized runs are carried out with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4) and version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). Both simulations agree with the observational-based linkage. The IPWP-SST-warming forced simulations show that the temperature in the tropical tropopause has decreased at the rate of around 0.318 K per decade in the coldest point region, as the tropical convection over the IPWP has become more vigorous and excited stronger equatorial waves to produce adiabatic cooling around tropopause. This cooling tropical tropopause leads to a dehydrating tropical lower stratosphere at the rate of 0.025 ppmv per decade, as expected by the freeze-drying mechanism. These results imply the substantial warming trend of IPWP is an important factor for the long-term trend of the tropical SWV entry under climate change, and a better representation of this relationship in the model is critical for the SWV projection under future climate scenarios.

Significant Stratospheric Moistening Following Extreme El Niño Events

The moistening impact of El Niño on the tropical lower stratosphere has been extensively studied, yet a long-standing challenge is its potential nonlinearities regarding the strength of El Niño. Extreme El Niño’s hydration in 2015/2016 was unprecedented in the satellite era, providing a great opportunity to distinguish the differential response of water vapor to extreme and moderate El Niño. Using ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data from 1979–2019, we compare the composite tropical lower stratospheric water vapor anomalies throughout all extreme and moderate El Niño episodes since the satellite era. We validate the variations in the lower stratospheric water vapor during the two distinct El Niño episodes using a three-dimensional chemistry transport model simulating the same period. The model reproduces the observed pattern in lower stratospheric water vapor. Both demonstrate that robust moistening during extreme El Niño events occurs throughout the tropical lower stratosphere. However, moderate El Niño events seem to have a weak effect on lower stratospheric water vapor. In comparison to moderate El Niño, the strong convective activities induced by extreme El Niño release large amounts of latent heat, causing extensive and intense warming in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, thus greatly increasing the water vapor content in the tropical lower stratosphere. Additionally, moderate El Niño events have strong seasonality in their hydration effect in the tropics, whereas the intense moistening effect of extreme El Niño events prevails in all seasons during their episodes.

Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical-learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 ± 0.39 ppmv K−1. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv K−1) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.

Record-breaking rainfall over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in August 2021: Sub-seasonal perspective and its predictability

An extremely heavy rainfall cluster was observed over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MYR) in August 2021, breaking the historical record since 1981 and causing severe floods. The controlling circulation regime and possible predictability sources of the un-expected rainfall are still unclear, especially from a sub-seasonal perspective. Our results show that the successive heavy rainfall events in August 2021 had significant intraseasonal oscillations for 10–24 d and 30–60 d, and they were synergistically influenced by tropical and extra-tropical circulation regime. Above all, the East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern (EAP) turned into a negative phase in late July and maintained throughout August, providing favorable background conditions for the northward transport of tropical water vapor and the southward intrusion of cold air from mid-high latitudes. The 30–60-d oscillation of precipitation was dominated by the first mode of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO1, with 30–60-d period), which strengthened the tropical moisture transport, while the quasi-biweekly oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high and the anomalous mid-latitude cyclone of EAP intensified the precipitation on the scale of 10–24 d. In addition, the second mode of BSISO (BSISO2, with 10–30-d period) may also intensify the 10–24-d precipitation in late August. The forecast leading time of the S2S models for the persistent heavy rainfall in August 2021 was basically 1–2 weeks, while the EAP and BSISO1 were revealed as the main predictable sources of the abnormal rainfall events. These results highlight the importance of superposition of different intraseasonal oscillations in forming the extreme rainfall event and demonstrate a potential chance to enhance the prediction skill of extreme event if the ensemble members in S2S models could be reasonably selected according to their performances on key predictability sources.

Evaluation of tropical water vapour from CMIP6 global climate models using the ESA CCI Water Vapour climate data records

Abstract. The tropospheric water vapour data record generated within the ESA Climate Change Initiative Water Vapour project (ESA TCWV-COMBI) is used to evaluate the interannual variability of global climate models (CMIP6 framework under AMIP scenarios) and reanalysis (ECMWF ERA5). The study focuses on the tropical belt, with a separation of oceanic and continental situations. The intercomparison is performed according to the probability density function (PDF) of the total column water vapour (TCWV) defined yearly from the daily scale, as well as its evolution with respect to large-scale overturning circulation. The observational diagnostic relies on the decomposition of the tropical atmosphere into percentile of the PDF and into dynamical regimes defined from the atmospheric vertical velocity. Large variations are observed in the patterns among the data records over tropical land, while oceanic situations show more similarities in both interannual variations and percentile extremes. The signatures of El Niño and La Niña events, driven by sea surface temperatures, are obvious over the oceans. Differences also occur over land for both trends (a strong moistening is observed in the ESA TCWV-COMBI data record, which is absent in CMIP6 models and ERA5) and extreme years. The discrepancies are probably associated with the scene selection applied in the data process. Since the results are sensitive to the scene selection applied in the data process, discrepancies are observed among the datasets. Therefore, the normalization process is employed to analyse the time evolution with respect to the mean state. Other sources of differences, linked to the models and their parametrizations, are highlighted.

Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD‐WACCM Simulations

AbstractWater vapor in the middle atmosphere plays an essential role in global warming, ozone depletion, and the formation of polar stratospheric and mesospheric clouds. We show that tropical middle atmospheric water vapor simulated with the specified‐dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD‐WACCM) is consistent with changes observed in a merged satellite data set, which encompasses the period 1993–2020. Consistent with previous work, we find no significant trend in the stratosphere in either the observations or the simulation; in the mesosphere, we find a long‐term trend of 0.1 ppmv per decade, but only in the observations. We also analyze an SD‐WACCM simulation for the longer period 1980–2019 to quantify the contribution of various factors to the decadal variation of middle atmospheric water vapor. Over 1980–1995, the simulated water vapor in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, averaged zonally and over ±30° latitude, increases by 0.30 ppmv per decade due to increasing methane emissions. After 1995, a significant abrupt decrease of water vapor of 0.37 ppmv per decade and then a gradual increase of 0.33 ppmv per decade result from changes in stratospheric cold point temperature. The cold‐point temperature is strongly influenced by the strength of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation. The acceleration of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation before about 2003 leads to a cooler tropical tropopause and a decrease of water vapor, and the deceleration thereafter leads to corresponding warming of the tropopause and an increase in water vapor.

Mitigation of Systematic Noise in F16 SSMIS LAS Channels Observations for Tropical Cyclone Applications

The Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16, launched on 18 October 2003, was the first conical-scanning radiometer to combine the Special Sensor Microwave/Imagers (SSM/I), Special Sensor Microwave/Temperature Sounder (SSM/T), and the Special Sensor Microwave/Water Vapor Sounder (SSM/T2). Nearly 20 years of F16 SSMIS data are available to the general public, providing many opportunities to study the atmosphere at both the synoptic and decadal scales. However, data noise from complicated structures has occurred in the brightness temperature (TB) observations of lower atmospheric sounding (LAS) channels since 25 April 2013. We used a two-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform to analyze the characteristic features of data noise in cross-track and along-track directions. We found that the data noise is around 1–2 K and occurs at certain cross-track wavelengths (Δλ)noise. A latitudinal variation was found for (Δλ)noise. Due to noise interference, TB observations reflecting rain, clouds, tropical cyclone warm core, temperature, and water vapor distributions are not readily distinguishable, especially in channels above the middle troposphere (channels 4–7 and 24), whose dynamic TB range is smaller than low tropospheric channels 1–3. Examples are provided to show the impact of the proposed noise mitigation for conical-scanning TB observations to capture 3D structures of hurricanes directly. Once the noise in F16 SSMIS LAS channels from 25 April 2013to the present is eliminated, we may investigate the decadal change of many features of tropical cyclones derivable from these TB observations.

Global Changes in Water Vapor 1979–2020

AbstractGlobal‐scale changes in water vapor and responses to surface temperature variability since 1979 are evaluated across a range of satellite and ground‐based observations, a reanalysis (ERA5) and coupled and atmosphere‐only CMIP6 climate model simulations. Global‐mean column integrated water vapor increased by 1%/decade during 1988–2014 in observations and atmosphere‐only simulations. However, coupled simulations overestimate water vapor trends and this is partly explained by past studies showing that internal climate variability suppressed observed warming in this period. Decreases in low‐altitude tropical water vapor in ERA5 and ground‐based observations before around 1993 are considered suspect based on inconsistency with simulations and increased column integrated water vapor in microwave satellite data since 1979. Atmospheric Infra‐red Sounder satellite data does not capture the increased tropospheric water vapor since 2002 shown by other satellite, reanalysis, and model products. However, global water vapor responses to interannual surface temperature variability are consistent across data sets with increases of ∼4%–5% near the surface and 10%–15% at 300 hPa for each 1°C increase in global surface temperature. Global water vapor responses are explained by thermodynamic amplification of upper tropospheric temperature changes and the Clausius Clapeyron temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure that are dominated by the tropical ocean responses. Upper tropospheric moistening is larger in climate model simulations with greater upper tropospheric warming.

Interannual Variability of the GNSS Precipitable Water Vapor in the Global Tropics

This paper addresses the subject of inter-annual variability of the tropical precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from 18 years of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations. Non-linear trends of retrieved GNSS PWV were investigated using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) along with various climate indices. For most of the analyzed stations (~49%) the GNSS PWV anomaly was related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although its influence on the PWV variability was not homogeneous. The cross-correlations coefficient values estimated between the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and PWV were up to 0.78. A strong cross-correlation was also found for regional climate pattern expressed through CAR, DMI, HAW, NPGO, TNA and TSA indices. A distinct agreement was also found when instead of climate indices, the local sea surface temperature was examined (average correlation 0.60). The SSA method made it also possible to distinguish small-scale phenomena that affect PWV, such as local droughts or wetter rainy seasons. The overall nature of the investigated changes was also verified through linear trend analysis. In general, not a single station was characterized by a negative trend and its weighted mean value, calculated for all stations was equal to 0.08 ± 0.01 mm/year.

Transport of Water Vapor from Tropical Cyclones to the Upper Troposphere

This paper investigates the influence of tropical cyclones on water vapor concentrations in the upper atmosphere above these storms. We use independent data sets of tropical storm intensity, water vapor and lightning activity to investigate this relationship. Water vapor in the upper troposphere is a key greenhouse gas, with direct impacts on surface temperatures. Both the amount and altitude of water vapor impact the radiative balance and the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. The water vapor enters the upper troposphere through deep convective storms, often associated with lightning activity. The intensity of the lightning activity represents the intensity of the convection in these storms, and hence the amount of water vapor transported aloft. In this paper, we investigate the role of tropical cyclones on the contribution of water vapor to the upper atmosphere moistening. Tropical cyclones are the largest most intense storms on Earth and can last for up to two weeks at a time. There is also evidence that the intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. In this study we find that the maximum moistening of the upper atmosphere occurs at the 200 hPa level (~12 km altitude), with a lag of 1–2 days after the maximum sustained winds in the tropical cyclone. While the water vapor peaks after the maximum of the storm intensity, the lightning activity peaks before the maximum intensity of the storms, as shown previously. We show here that the absolute amount of water vapor in the upper troposphere above tropical storms increases linearly with the intensity of the storms. For every 10 hPa decrease in the minimum pressure of tropical storms, the specific humidity increases around 0.2 g/kg at the 200 hPa level.

Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Variations Diagnosed from Satellite Observations, Reanalysis Data, and a Chemistry—Climate Model

Stratospheric water vapor variations, which may play an important role in surface climate, have drawn extensive studies. Here, the variation in stratospheric water vapor is investigated using data from observations of the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite (MLS), ERA(全称? )-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), and simulations bythe Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We find that the differences of annual-mean stratospheric water vapor among these datasets may be partlycaused by the differences in vertical transports. Using budget analysis, we find that the upward transport of water vapor at 100 hPa is mainly located over the Pacific warm pool region and South America in the equatorial tropics in boreal winter and over thesoutheast of the South Asian high and south of North America in boreal summer. It is found that temperature averaged over regions withupward transportis a better indicator of interannual variability of tropical mean stratospheric water vapor than the tropical mean temperature. It seems that the distributions of the seasonal cycle amplitude of lower stratospheric water vapor in the tropics can also be impacted by the vertical transport. The radiative effects of the interannual changes in water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere are underestimated by approximately 29% in both ERAI and WACCM compared to MLS, although the interannual variations of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere are dramatically overestimated in ERAI and WACCM.The results here indicate that the radiative effect of long-term changes in water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere may be underestimated in both ERAI and WACCM simulations.

Improvements in Cloud and Water Vapor Simulations Over the Tropical Oceans in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5

AbstractClouds and water vapor are among the most difficult quantities for global climate models to simulate because they are affected by physical processes that operate over scales unresolved by current climate models. We use NASA satellite data to assess the representation of clouds and water vapor structures in 28 climate models that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Each model is assigned numerical scores based on its performance in simulating spatial mean, variance and pattern correlation of multi‐year mean clouds and water vapor structures in lower, middle, upper troposphere, and near the tropopause over tropical oceans. We find measurable improvements in CMIP6 models relative to CMIP5 models for both clouds and water vapor. The differences between models and satellite observations and the spread across the models are reduced. In addition, we find that the models' equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is correlated with overall performance scores for both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, with a weaker correlation in CMIP6, suggesting that the models that capture better tropical clouds and water vapor distributions tend to have higher ECS. The physical processes responsible for the apparent correlation between ECS and model performance score warrant further study.

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.

Quantifying Convective Aggregation Using the Tropical Moist Margin's Length

AbstractOn small scales, the tropical atmosphere tends to be either moist or very dry. This defines two states that, on large scales, are separated by a sharp margin, well identified by the antimode of the bimodal tropical column water vapor distribution. Despite recent progress in understanding physical processes governing the spatiotemporal variability of tropical water vapor, the behavior of this margin remains elusive, and we lack a simple framework to understand the bimodality of tropical water vapor in observations. Motivated by the success of coarsening theory in explaining bimodal distributions, we leverage its methodology to relate the moisture field's spatial organization to its time evolution. This results in a new diagnostic framework for the bimodality of tropical water vapor, from which we argue that the length of the margin separating moist from dry regions should evolve toward a minimum in equilibrium. As the spatial organization of moisture is closely related to the organization of tropical convection, we hereby introduce a new convective organization index (BLW) measuring the ratio of the margin's length to the circumference of a well‐defined equilibrium shape. Using BLW, we assess the evolution of self‐aggregation in idealized cloud‐resolving simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium and contrast it to the time evolution of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the ERA5 meteorological reanalysis product. We find that BLW successfully captures aspects of convective organization ignored by more traditional metrics, while offering a new perspective on the seasonal cycle of convective organization in the Atlantic ITCZ.

Structure of an Atmospheric River Over Australia and the Southern Ocean. Part I: Tropical and Midlatitude Water Vapor Fluxes

AbstractAn atmospheric river (AR) impacting Tasmania, Australia, and the Southern Ocean during the austral summer on 28–29 January 2018 during the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport Experimental Study campaign is analyzed using a modeling and observational approach. Gulfstream‐V dropsonde measurements and Global Precipitation Measurement radar analyses were used in conjunction with Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with water vapor tracers to investigate the relative contributions of tropical and midlatitude moisture sources to the AR. Moisture associated with a monsoonal tropical depression became entrained into a midlatitude frontal system that extended to 60°S, reaching the associated low‐pressure system 850 km off the coast of Antarctica—effectively connecting the tropics and the polar region. Tropical moisture contributed to about 50% of the precipitable water within the AR as the flow moved over the Southern Ocean near Tasmania. The tropical contribution to precipitation decreased with latitude, from >70% over Australia, to ~50% off the Australian coast, to less than 5% poleward of 55°S. The integrated vapor transport (IVT) through the core of the AR reached above 500 kg m−1 s−1 during 1200 UTC 28 January to 0600 UTC 29 January, 1.29 times the average amount of water carried by the world's largest terrestrial river, the Amazon. The high IVT strength might be attributed to the higher water vapor content associated with the warmer temperatures across Australia and the Southern Ocean in austral summer.

Analysis of factors influencing tropical lower stratospheric water vapor during 1980\u20132017

Tropical cold point tropopause temperature (CPT) anomalies determine lower stratospheric water vapor (LSWV) variations, leading to a high correlation between variations in tropical average CPT and changes in tropical average LSWV. However, this high correlation is only found in winter and spring. This work revisits the factors controlling LSWV variations using observations and simulations over the past ~40 years. It is found that the first and second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of tropical CPT variations together explain the tropical average LSWV changes much better than the tropical average CPT variations. The high correlation between the first and second EOF modes of tropical CPT variations and tropical average LSWV changes holds in all four seasons. A further analysis shows that the first and second EOF modes of tropical CPT variations are related to canonical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity and sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the central Pacific Ocean, respectively. ENSO Modoki is also an important factor that affects LSWV variations by influencing the vertical velocity at the tropopause. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) affects the CPT, and is the third process modulating the LSWV changes. The simulations also support the results.

Tropical water vapour in the lower stratosphere and its relationship to tropical/extratropical dynamical processes in ERA5

AbstractStratospheric water vapour (SWV), in spite of its low concentration in the stratosphere as compared to the troposphere, contributes significantly to the surface energy budget and can have an influence on the surface climate. This study investigates the dynamical processes that determine SWV on interannual to decadal time‐scales. First, we evaluate two SWV reanalysis products and show that SWV is better represented in a new‐generation reanalysis product, ERA5, than in its predecessor, ERA‐Interim. In particular, it is shown that SWV in ERA5 is highly consistent with observational data obtained from the SPARC Data Initiative Multi‐Instrument Mean (SDI MIM). Second, we investigate the variability of tropical SWV and its relationship to dynamical stratospheric variables. The analyses show that the interannual variability in the tropical lower‐stratospheric water vapour is closely linked to the tropical Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO). When westerlies occupy the middle stratosphere and easterlies the lower stratosphere, a decrease is observed in lower‐stratospheric water vapour due to a colder tropical tropopause and a QBO‐induced enhanced residual circulation. On decadal time‐scales, the composite analysis of the boreal winter in two typical periods shows that less SWV is related to a warm anomaly in the North Atlantic sea‐surface temperature, which leads to stronger upward propagation of planetary wave activity at high latitudes, a weaker polar vortex and an enhanced residual circulation. The opposite occurs during periods with higher concentrations of SWV.

Extratropical Influence on the Tropical Rainfall Distribution

This review focuses on recent progress in understanding the extratropical influence on the annual- and zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position using a hierarchy of model simulations and theory. Significant progress in our theoretical understanding of the zonal-mean ITCZ position has been made utilizing simulations with a slab ocean. Interhemispheric contrasts in the atmospheric heating (e.g., via an anomalous radiative forcing in one hemisphere) lead to a compensating cross-equatorial energy transport by Hadley circulation adjustments and corresponding meridional ITCZ shifts. In particular, high-latitude radiative perturbations have a strong influence on the ITCZ position. The effectiveness of extratropical forcing for resulting in ITCZ shifts is amplified by cloud radiative feedbacks in the midlatitudes and tropical water vapor feedback associated with the ITCZ displacement. However, more recently conducted fully coupled model simulations tend to show a less pronounced extratropical influence on the ITCZ position due to additional compensating effects from ocean dynamics. The oceanic damping effect on ITCZ shifts results from distinct ocean circulation components, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the wind-driven subtropical cell. Both the relative importance of different ocean circulation components and the roles of different radiative feedbacks are sensitive to forcing location, making the tropical hydroclimate response to extratropical forcing sensitive to the geographical location of the forcing, for instance, in which ocean basin it occurs. The interaction between radiative feedbacks and ocean dynamical adjustment further confounds the determination of extratropical influence on the ITCZ position, which has motivated a recently initiated model intercomparison project. The zonal-mean energetics framework needs to be refined to explain beyond the time- and zonal-mean ITCZ position so as to incorporate transient propagation features and the spatial distribution of the tropical precipitation response.

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming

AbstractModel projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels, assuming all other factors are unchanged. 2) For TC precipitation rates, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase globally, with a median projected increase of 14%, or close to the rate of tropical water vapor increase with warming, at constant relative humidity. 3) For TC intensity, 10 of 11 authors had at least medium-to-high confidence that the global average will increase. The median projected increase in lifetime maximum surface wind speeds is about 5% (range: 1%–10%) in available higher-resolution studies. 4) For the global proportion (as opposed to frequency) of TCs that reach very intense (category 4–5) levels, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase, with a median projected change of +13%. Author opinion was more mixed and confidence levels lower for the following projections: 5) a further poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific; 6) a decrease of global TC frequency, as projected in most studies; 7) an increase in global very intense TC frequency (category 4–5), seen most prominently in higher-resolution models; and 8) a slowdown in TC translation speed.

Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming

Recent climate modeling studies point to an increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates in response to climate warming. These studies indicate that the percentage increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates often outpaces the increase in saturation specific humidity expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation (~7% °C−1). We explore the change in tropical cyclone rainfall rates over all oceans under global warming using a high-resolution climate model with the ability to simulate the entire intensity spectrum of tropical cyclones. Consistent with previous results, we find a robust increase of tropical cyclone rainfall rates. The percentage increase for inner-core tropical cyclone rainfall rates in our model is markedly larger than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. However, when the impact of storm intensity is excluded, the rainfall rate increase shows a much better match with the Clausius-Clapeyron rate, suggesting that the “super Clausius-Clapeyron” scaling of rainfall rates with temperature increase is due to the warming-induced increase of tropical cyclone intensity. The increase of tropical cyclone intensity and environmental water vapor, in combination, explain the tropical cyclone rainfall rate increase under global warming.