Tropical Stratospheric Water Vapor Research Articles

Secular changes in the tropical stratospheric water vapour entry induced by the Indo-Pacific warm pool warming

A decreasing trend in the tropical (30°S ∼ 30°N) stratospheric water vapour (SWV) entry in recent four decades (from 1984 to 2020) is detected based on the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) measurements and the ERA5 reanalysis dataset using linear regression and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis. With the concurrent warming of the sea surface temperature (SST), the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) appears to be the most significant region among the tropical oceans based on correlation analysis. >43% of the decreasing tropical lower SWV trend is likely to be related to the IPWP SST warming. To validate this relationship, two groups of idealized runs are carried out with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4) and version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). Both simulations agree with the observational-based linkage. The IPWP-SST-warming forced simulations show that the temperature in the tropical tropopause has decreased at the rate of around 0.318 K per decade in the coldest point region, as the tropical convection over the IPWP has become more vigorous and excited stronger equatorial waves to produce adiabatic cooling around tropopause. This cooling tropical tropopause leads to a dehydrating tropical lower stratosphere at the rate of 0.025 ppmv per decade, as expected by the freeze-drying mechanism. These results imply the substantial warming trend of IPWP is an important factor for the long-term trend of the tropical SWV entry under climate change, and a better representation of this relationship in the model is critical for the SWV projection under future climate scenarios.

Interannual variations of water vapor in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower and middle stratosphere and their connections to ENSO and QBO

Abstract. In this study, we analyze the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder water vapor data in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower and middle stratosphere (UTLMS) (from 215 to 6 hPa) for the period from August 2004 to September 2017 using time-lag regression analysis and composite analysis to explore the interannual variations of tropical UTLMS water vapor and their connections to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our analysis shows that the interannual tropical UTLMS water vapor anomalies are strongly related to ENSO and QBO which together can explain more than half (∼ 50 %–60 %) but not all variance of the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. We find that ENSO's impact is strong in the upper troposphere (∼ 215–∼ 120 hPa) and near the tropopause (∼ 110–∼ 90 hPa), with a ∼ 3-month lag but weak in the lower and middle stratosphere (∼ 80 to ∼ 6 hPa). In contrast, QBO's role is large in the lower and middle stratosphere, with an upward-propagating signal starting at the tropopause (100 hPa) with a ∼ 2-month lag, peaking in the middle stratosphere near 15 hPa with a ∼ 21-month lag. The phase lag is based on the 50 hPa QBO index used by many previous studies. This observational evidence supports that the QBO's impact on the tropical stratospheric water vapor is from its modulation on the tropical tropopause temperature and then transported upward with the tape recorder as suggested by many previous studies. In the upper troposphere, ENSO is more important than QBO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies that are positive during the warm ENSO phases but negative during the cold ENSO phases. Near the tropopause, both ENSO and QBO are important for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. Warm ENSO phase and westerly QBO phase tend to cause positive water vapor anomalies, while cold ENSO phase and easterly QBO phase tend to cause negative water vapor anomalies. As a result, the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies near the tropopause are different depending on different ENSO and QBO phase combinations. In the lower and middle stratosphere, QBO is more important than ENSO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. For the westerly QBO phases, interannual tropical water vapor anomalies are positive near the tropopause and in the lower stratosphere but negative in the middle stratosphere and positive again above. Vice versa for the easterly QBO phases.

Linking uncertainty in simulated Arctic ozone loss to uncertainties in modelled tropical stratospheric water vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapour influences the chemical ozone loss in the polar stratosphere via control of the polar stratospheric cloud formation. The amount of water vapour entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause differs substantially between simulations from chemistry–climate models (CCMs). This is because the present-day models, e.g. CCMs, have difficulties in capturing the whole complexity of processes that control the water transport across the tropopause. As a result there are large differences in the stratospheric water vapour between the models. In this study we investigate the sensitivity of simulated Arctic ozone loss to the simulated amount of water vapour that enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause. We used a chemical transport model, FinROSE-CTM, forced by ERA-Interim meteorology. The water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause was varied between 0.5 and 1.6 times the concentration in ERA-Interim, which is similar to the range seen in chemistry–climate models. The water vapour changes in the tropical tropopause led to about 1.5 ppmv less and 2 ppmv more water vapour in the Arctic polar vortex compared to the ERA-Interim, respectively. The change induced in the water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause region was seen as a nearly one-to-one change in the Arctic polar vortex. We found that the impact of water vapour changes on ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex depends on the meteorological conditions. The strongest effect was in intermediately cold stratospheric winters, such as the winter of 2013/2014, when added water vapour resulted in 2 %–7 % more ozone loss due to the additional formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and associated chlorine activation on their surface, leading to ozone loss. The effect was less pronounced in cold winters such as the 2010/2011 winter because cold conditions persisted long enough for a nearly complete chlorine activation, even in simulations with prescribed stratospheric water vapour amount corresponding to the observed values. In this case addition of water vapour to the stratosphere led to increased areas of ICE PSCs but it did not increase the chlorine activation and ozone destruction significantly. In the warm winter of 2012/2013 the impact of water vapour concentration on ozone loss was small because the ozone loss was mainly NOx-induced. The results show that the simulated water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause has a significant impact on the Arctic ozone loss and therefore needs to be well simulated in order to improve future projections of the recovery of the ozone layer.

The linkage between stratospheric water vapor and surface temperature in an observation-constrained coupled general circulation model

We assess the interactions between stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and surface temperature during the past two decades using satellite observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). From 1992 to 2013, to first order, the observed SWV exhibited three distinct piece-wise trends: a steady increase from 1992 to 2000, an abrupt drop from 2000 to 2004, and a gradual recovery after 2004, while the global-mean surface temperature experienced a strong increase until 2000 and a warming hiatus after 2000. The atmosphere-only CESM shows that the seasonal variation of tropical-mean (30°S–30°N) SWV is anticorrelated with that of the tropical-mean sea surface temperature (SST), while the correlation between the tropical SWV and SST anomalies on the interannual time scale is rather weak. By nudging the modeled SWV to prescribed profiles in coupled atmosphere-slab ocean experiments, we investigate the impact of SWV variations on surface temperature change. We find that a uniform 1 ppmv (0.5 ppmv) SWV increase (decrease) leads to an equilibrium global mean surface warming (cooling) of 0.12 ± 0.05 °C (−0.07 ± 0.05 °C). Sensitivity experiments show that the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to SWV perturbations over the extratropics is larger than that over the tropics. The observed sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 produces a global mean surface cooling of about −0.048 ± 0.041 °C, which suggests that a persistent change in SWV would make an imprint on long-term variations of global-mean surface temperature. A constant linear increase in SWV based on the satellite-observed rate of SWV change yields a global mean surface warming of 0.03 ± 0.01 °C/decade over a 50-year period, which accounts for about 19 % of the observed surface temperature increase prior to the warming hiatus. In the same experiment, trend analyses during different periods reveal a multi-year adjustment of surface temperature before the response to SWV forcing becomes strong relative to the internal variability in the model.

The upward branch of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation quantified by tropical stratospheric water vapor and carbon monoxide measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder

AbstractThe vertical distributions of water vapor (H2O) and carbon monoxide (CO) in the tropical lower stratosphere are controlled largely by their mixing ratios near the tropopause and by ascending motions as part of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC). The upward propagation of seasonal variations imprinted on H2O and CO vertical profiles, often referred to as the tropical “tape recorder,” can be used to derive the mean vertical velocity, , in this region of the lower stratosphere where quasi‐horizontal mixing is not strong enough to erase the seasonal tape recorder signals. We used Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations of the tropical tape recorders from 2004 to 2014 to derive values of at pressures between 90 and 16 hPa (about 18 to 28 km altitude). Mean vertical profiles of are consistent with calculated velocities derived from net radiative heating rates based on observed temperature, humidity, cloud, and trace gas amounts. Temporal variations in are dominated by a quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and seasonal cycles, with maximum upwelling coinciding with easterly phases of the QBO in zonal wind shear and during the November–December period of the seasonal cycle. Both the QBO and annual modes emphasize the importance of wave phenomena in modulating the strength of tropical upwelling in the BDC. Interannual anomalies in are correlated with variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with enhanced stratospheric upwelling during El Niño phases and reduced upwelling during La Niña. A small decreasing linear trend (~6%/decade) in is observed from 2005 to 2014, although confidence is low in identifying such a trend as part of a long‐term change due to the influence of ENSO over this period.

Comparison of lower stratospheric tropical mean vertical velocities

We have analyzed 13 years (1993–2005) of tropical stratospheric water vapor data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment and over 3 years of data (October 2004 through November 2007) from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder. By correlating the phase lag of the water vapor “tape recorder” signal between levels we estimate the time mean vertical velocity. Our estimated vertical velocity compares well with calculations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry‐climate model (CCM) and from the GEOS data assimilation system. Between 18 and 26 km both the GEOS CCM simulations and water vapor observations agree that the vertical velocity is below 0.04 cm/s, with a minimum near 20 km of 0.03 cm/s. Vertical velocities deduced from water vapor observations are higher than those from the GEOS CCM in the region 16–18 km (0.04 cm/s) and above 26–30 km (up to 0.07 cm/s). These estimates are close to earlier estimates from a shorter water vapor record and radiative transfer models. No evidence is found for velocities as high as 0.15 cm/s as was recently estimated from aircraft CO2 measurements in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. Further diagnosis of the aircraft CO2 data and model simulations of CO2 show that while the CO2 data give an apparent upward transport velocity of ∼0.06 cm/s, about half of this is due to vertical and horizontal eddy transport. Accounting for the eddy terms gives a CO2‐based estimate of the vertical velocity of ∼0.03 cm/s, in much closer agreement with that estimated from water vapor.

Trends in the temperature and water vapor content of the tropical lower stratosphere: Sea surface connection

The tropical lower stratosphere is an important region of the atmosphere, where strong convective activity in the underlying troposphere affects both its chemical and dynamical properties. Temperatures near the tropopause influence the input of water vapor from the troposphere and act as an indicator of the dynamical properties of the region. This paper addresses long‐term trends in the temperature of the tropical lower stratosphere. Correlations with recent changes in tropical stratospheric water vapor are also noted. Special attention is given to the convectively active tropical western Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are among the highest in the world. The region contains several island radiosonde stations with records reliably extending over several decades. Results show only weak cooling trends occurred before the 1990s, but a strong and rapid cooling of 4° to 6°C took place in the mid‐1990s and has persisted since that time. The properties of the temperature records during and following this cooling event are discussed, and a significant anticorrelation with SST anomalies in the underlying ocean is noted. The rate of ocean warming increased in the early 1990s, coinciding approximately with the mid‐decade cooling event, while individual monthly anomalies in both time series are also anticorrelated. Past work has shown that cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere is a dynamical result of tropospheric convection, which in turn partially depends upon sea surface temperatures. Convection may therefore be the link between the ocean and the stratosphere, and the increased cooling may be an indication of strengthening tropical convection.

Modeling Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) water vapor is investigated using a general circulation model, the Community Atmosphere Model 3.0 (CAM3.0). Seasonal variability in UTLS water vapor, temperature and zonal wind, based on model simulation results for the period 1991-2000, are analyzed. Results are validated against satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and ERA-40 reanalyzes from ECMWF. The model captures the seasonal cycle in temperature as well as water vapor. The zonal wind deviates from the reanalysis data in the tropics as the model is not able to reproduce the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Outside the tropics, the zonal wind corresponds very well with the ERA-40 zonal wind. The model is able to reproduce the seasonal signal in the tropical stratospheric water vapor; i.e., the Tape Recorder Signal. This indicates a realistic Brewer-Dobson circulation in the model. However, the Tape Recorder signal attenuates too fast compared to the HALOE data, suggesting a too strong horizontal mixing between the tropical stratosphere and mid latitudes. CAM3.0 shows considerable improvements in UTLS temperatures as well as water vapor compared to earlier generations of the NCAR general circulation models.

Horizontal transport and the dehydration of the stratosphere

The coldest tropopause temperatures occur over the equatorial West Pacific during Northern Hemisphere winter. Horizontal transport through this “cold trap” region causes air parcels that reach the tropopause at other longitudes to be dehydrated to the very low saturation mixing ratios characteristic of the cold trap, and hence can explain why observed tropical stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios are often lower than the saturation mixing ratio at the mean tropopause temperature. Horizontal transport of water vapor can also explain how a persistent layer of subvisible cirrus can exist near the tropopause in the cold trap even though observations suggest that there is diabatic cooling and subsidence, rather than diabatic heating and rising through the tropopause in this region. Thus, horizontal transport in the tropical transition layer in the vicinity of the tropopause plays an important role in the water balance of the stratosphere.

An atmospheric tape recorder: The imprint of tropical tropopause temperatures on stratospheric water vapor

We describe observations of tropical stratospheric water vapor q that show clear evidence of large‐scale upward advection of the signal from annual fluctuations in the effective “entry mixing ratio” qE of air entering the tropical stratosphere. In other words, air is “marked,” on emergence above the highest cloud tops, like a signal recorded on an upward moving magnetic tape. We define qE as the mean water vapor mixing ratio, at the tropical tropopause, of air that will subsequently rise and enter the stratospheric “overworld” at about 400 K. The observations show a systematic phase lag, increasing with altitude, between the annual cycle in qE and the annual cycle in q at higher altitudes. The observed phase lag agrees with the phase lag calculated assuming advection by the transformed Eulerian‐mean vertical velocity of a qE crudely estimated from 100‐hPa temperatures, which we use as a convenient proxy for tropopause temperatures. The phase agreement confirms the overall robustness of the calculation and strongly supports the tape recorder hypothesis. Establishing a quantitative link between qE and observed tropopause temperatures, however, proves difficult because the process of marking the tape depends subtly on both small‐ and large‐scale processes. The tape speed, or large‐scale upward advection speed, has a substantial annual variation and a smaller variation due to the quasi‐biennial oscillation, which delays or accelerates the arrival of the signal by a month or two in the middle stratosphere. As the tape moves upward, the signal is attenuated with an e‐folding time of about 7 to 9 months between 100 and 50 hPa and about 15 to 18 months between 50 and 20 hPa, constraining possible orders of magnitude both of vertical diffusion Kz and of rates of mixing in from the extratropics. For instance, if there were no mixing in, then Kz would be in the range 0.03–0.09 m2 s−1; this is an upper bound on Kz.

Tropical stratospheric water vapor measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)

The lower stratospheric variability of equatorial water vapor, measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), follows an annual cycle modulated by the quasi‐biennial oscillation. At levels higher in the stratosphere, water vapor measurements exhibit a semiannual oscillatory signal with the largest amplitudes at 2.2 and 1hPa. Zonal‐mean cross sections of MLS water vapour are consistent with previous satellite measurements from the LIMS and SAGE II instruments in that they show water vapor increasing upwards and polewards from a well defined minimum in the tropics. The minimum values vary in height between the retrieved 46 and 22hPa pressure levels.