Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Drivers of Changes to the ENSO–Europe Teleconnection Under Future Warming

Drivers of Changes to the ENSO–Europe Teleconnection Under Future Warming

Impacts of Atmospheric Internal Variations on the Variability of Sea Surface Temperature Based on the Hydra‐SINTEX Model

AbstractOcean–atmosphere interactions largely control the variabilities of the climate system on Earth. However, how much atmospheric internal signals contribute to climate variabilities remains uncertain over many parts of the globe. Here, we develop an interactive ensemble coupled model (called Hydra‐SINTEX) to investigate the influences of atmospheric internal variations (AIVs) on the mean‐states and variability of the climate system. The results show that, while climatological mean‐states are little affected, the AIVs can largely influence climate variabilities over the globe. We pay particular attention to two regions, that is, the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, which is the key area of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the subtropical North Pacific. We found that sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities in these two regions are much reduced without the AIVs but with distinct mechanisms. Without the AIVs, the intensity of the IOD is largely reduced in association with weakened air–sea coupling in the tropics. This indicates the importance of atmospheric noise forcing on the development of the IOD. In contrast, the reduction of SST variability in the subtropical North Pacific is caused by the absence of the AIVs that are generated by both mid‐latitude atmospheric processes and weakened remote influence of the tropical SST in accordance with the reduced SST signals there.

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

A new chronology of Cedrela fissilis (Meliaceae) for Southern Brazil: combining classical dendrochronology and radiocarbon dating

Cedrela fissilis is a tree species widely distributed in the tropical biomes of South America. This species has visible annual growth rings and can live for several centuries. The present study aims to (i) develop a chronology of C. fissilis to the Southern Brazilian Plateau using traditional dendrochronological methods, (ii) validate the dendrochronological dating using the radiocarbon (14C) bomb pulse method, and (iii) determine the influence of temperature and precipitation variations and their teleconnections with the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures on the annual radial growth of this species. The ring width chronology was developed using 24C. fissilis trees. The Schulman years of 1957, 1962, 1963, 1966, 1969 and 1974 were independently dated using the 14C bomb pulse methodology by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Tree-ring indices were compared with temperature and precipitation records from stations around the study forest. The chronology covers the period 1907-2018 (111 years) and is well replicated (> 10 trees) from 1941 onwards. Statistics commonly used in dendrochronology indicate that the chronology is highly reliable and of good quality (mean series intercorrelation r = 0.49; Rbar = 0.30; EPS = 0.86; MSI = 0.40). The 14C bomb pulse of selected calendar years showed that the trees were accurately dated using the classical cross-dating approach. Precipitation from November to December (wet period) is positively correlated with tree growth (r = 0.36, n = 49; p<0.05). In addition, variations in temperature from May to July are positively correlated with ring width (r = 0.39, n = 49; p<0.05), suggesting that C. fissilis growth is favored by abundant rainfall during the growing season and above-average winter temperatures. Interannual variation in the chronology is partially modulated by El Niño 3.4 (East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature) during Oct-Dec (r = 0.27, n = 68, p<0.05). The growth of C. fissilis trees is directly dependent on climate variability, suggesting that more abundant precipitation and higher winter temperatures, as projected for the future climate of southern Brazil, will have a positive effect on tree growth. However, prolonged droughts and high temperatures during the growing season will have a negative impact on tree growth, even in humid forests with high soil moisture content.

The contrasting interannual variation and mechanism of the first rainy season precipitation before and after the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

The first rainy season (FRS) is usually considered as a whole when its precipitation variability and the underlying mechanism are discussed. This strategy does not consider the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset occurring within the FRS, which implies an abrupt change in nature and, thereby, the possible characteristics and mechanism of precipitation. To overcome this deficiency, this study divides the FRS into two stages before and after the SCSSM onset, revisits their interannual precipitation variability, and finds remarkable differences in the two FRS stages. During the FRS stage before the SCSSM onset, enhanced precipitation is accompanied by an anticyclone centered on the Indian Peninsula and extending further eastward to the Philippines, active synoptic-scale disturbances in the upstream regions of South China and an anomalous anticyclone in the mid-latitudes of East Asia. This configuration reinforces the warm-moisture air transportation from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea and cold air invasion from the mid-latitude regions to South China. It shapes the pattern of initial ascending motions over South China by both dynamical and thermal forcing. During the FRS stage after the SCSSM onset, in contrast, enhanced precipitation is accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific and the mid-latitude Silk Road pattern. This configuration reinforces warm-moisture air transportation from the tropical Western Pacific and cold air from the northwest direction to South China and shapes the initial ascending motion mainly by thermal forcing. The interannual precipitation variability is tied to a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) dipole for the FRS period before the SCSSM onset but not after. Such a difference is possibly due to the changes in the basic thermal-dynamical state of the atmosphere near the Maritime Continent and the tropical Northwestern Pacific and their different responses to the SST forcing before and after the SCSSM onset.

Prospects and status of forecasting monthly mean subregional rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon using the coupled Unified Model

AbstractWhile there is huge demand for regional forecasts, information needed for selection of the most appropriate temporal and spatial scales is not available. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the basis of forecasting monthly mean rainfall over homogeneous regions by analyzing the forecasting skill and source of predictability. Reforecasts generated at the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) for the period 1993–2015 using the coupled Unified Model are used in this study. Analysis of the forecasting skill over increasingly large lead times, averaging periods and spatial scales, is carried out to compare the skill at different time‐scales and to highlight the effect of spatial averaging over regions of coherent rainfall characteristics. Analysis of probabilistic forecasts is carried out to further demonstrate the usefulness of monthly mean forecasts. The influence of forcings on rainfall is studied both in model and in observations to understand the model's skill in representing interannual variability of monthly mean rainfall. Multiple regression analyses carried out for rainfall using climate indices as independent variables shows that the extent of forcings can largely explain the high variability of rainfall during the onset and withdrawal phase compared to the peak phase of monsoons. ENSO‐related subsidence is found to influence mainly the southern peninsular region, while tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean are found to influence rainfall over northwest and central India by forcing circulation patterns typically associated with circumglobal teleconnections (CGTs) which are strongest during the month of June. Interestingly, the influence of CGTs on rainfall in the northeast is opposite to its influence on other homogeneous regions, which explains the contrast in influence of the North Indian Ocean SSTs on rainfall over the northeast and over All India. The model representation of influence of forcings and strength of teleconnections is better for specific region–month pairs, which is seen to influence the monthly variations in skill of forecasting rainfall over homogeneous regions.

Interannual synchronization of the North American summer monsoon and the North Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis frequency

Variations of the North American summer monsoon (NASM) and North Atlantic tropical cyclone (NATC) activities strongly influence climate anomalies in North America, with serious potential risk to life and property. Despite the scientific importance of this topic, the possible linkage between the NASM and the NATC genesis frequency remains unexplored. Here, we aim to examine the relationship between interannual variations of the NASM intensity and the NATC genesis frequency based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Our results show a strong association between the NASM intensity and the NATC genesis frequency during the extended boreal summer, with a good synchronization between their interannual variations. In years with stronger (weaker) NASM intensity, the NATC genesis frequency tends to be higher (lower). The observed NASM–NATC synchronization may be explained by two pathways: tropical-ocean-driven pathway and monsoon-heating-driven pathway. In the tropical-ocean-driven pathway, the tropical Pacific and Atlantic interbasin sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies play a critical role in bridging the NASM and NATC, by modulating the cross-Central American wind. Simulations of the tropical Pacific–Atlantic interbasin SST anomalies are critical for CMIP6 models to capture the observed linkage between the NASM and the vertical wind shear over the NATC main development region (MDR). In the monsoon-heating-driven pathway, the heating source due to the rainfall anomalies associated with the NASM can trigger atmospheric circulation anomalies through the Gill-type response, thereby affecting the NATC by changing the vertical wind shear over the MDR. This study demonstrates a connection between interannual variations of the NASM and the NATC genesis frequency, results of which can be used to advance our understanding of the monsoon–TC relationship and increase research focus on the interannual NASM–NATC synchronization in climate prediction.

Seasonal influence of tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature on streamflow variability in the patia river basin

AbstractThis research presents a seasonal analysis of the variability of streamflows in the Patía River Basin (PRB) between 1984 and 2018 and the influence exerted by the large-scale climate variability using non-linear principal component analysis (NLPCA), Pearson's correlation, and composite analysis. The study was conduced during the minimum (July–August–September, JAS) and maximum (October–November–December, OND) streamflow periods. The NLPCA depicted a single significant mode of variability for each season with explained variances greater than 75%. The correlation analysis between the main mode of variability during OND and climate indices showed significant results, mainly with the Pacific Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In contrast, for JAS, the correlations were significant for the indices linked to the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, the composite analysis indicated that the positive (negative) events during JAS, which show the increase (decrease) of streamflow in PRB, are related to negative (positive) anomalies in the Tropical Northern Atlantic band, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. In comparison, the positive (negative) events during OND are related to negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific, corresponding to La Niña (El Niño) events. The results provide evidence of the strong influence of climate indices and tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST on seasonal streamflow in the PRB and establish the foundations for seasonal streamflow modelling, relevant for prevention and risk management as well as for adequate planning and management of water resources in the region.

Northeast Pacific warm blobs sustained via extratropical atmospheric teleconnections

Large-scale marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific (NEP), identified here and previously as ‘warm blobs’, have devastating impacts on regional ecosystems. An anomalous atmospheric ridge over the NEP is known to be crucial for maintaining these warm blobs, also causing abnormally cold temperatures over North America during the cold season. Previous studies linked this ridge to teleconnections from tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. However, it was unclear whether teleconnections from the extratropics could also contribute to the ridge. Here we show that planetary wave trains, triggered by increased rainfall and latent heat release over the Mediterranean Sea accompanied by decreased rainfall over the North Atlantic, can transport wave energy to the NEP, guided by the westerly jet, and induce a quasi-barotropic ridge there. Our findings provide insights into extratropical teleconnections sustaining the NEP ridge, offering a source of potential predictability for the warm blobs and temperature fluctuations over North America.

Pliocene CO2 rise due to sea-level fall as a mechanism for the delayed ice age

Global sea level fell progressively during the Pliocene in response to the growth of ice sheets at high northern latitudes. However, not until ∼2.7 Ma did the climate system actually generate and maintain major ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. A decline in atmospheric CO2 levels (pCO2) is thought to be responsible for the Pleistocene ice ages. However, the link between pCO2 and Pliocene glaciations, or their delay, is not well understood, mainly because the magnitude of pCO2 remains uncertain beyond the maximum age of ice cores (∼0.8 Ma). Here, we develop a carbonate clumped isotope (∆47) geothermometer specifically for pedogenic carbonate in Chinese loess, which we use to reconstruct temperatures in northern China, and pCO2, for the past 7.24 Ma. The palaeotemperature results show an oscillatory cooling trend over time in the East Asian monsoon region, in good agreement with coeval tropical sea surface temperature records. The pCO2 reconstruction using the pedogenic carbonate palaeobarometer reveals low values (150–325 ppmv) during the intervals of 7.24–4.3 Ma and 2.6–0 Ma. In contrast, there is a three-step rise in pCO2 up to 535 ppmv from 4.3 to 2.6 Ma, coincident with an oscillatory decrease in sea level and in benthic δ13C. We suggest that the Pliocene CO2 rise was causally related to the sea-level fall and associated organic carbon oxidation on exposed continental shelves, thereby delaying the onset of the ice age. This implies a negative feedback mechanism induced by long-term cooling since the Late Miocene, which may have delayed the onset of the ice age but did not prevent it.

Responses of Lower Stratospheric water vapor to Regional Sea Surface Temperature Changes

Abstract The variability of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) plays a crucial role in stratospheric chemistry and the Earth's energy budget, strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we systematically investigate the response of low stratospheric water vapor (LSWV) to regional sea surface temperature changes using idealized SST patch experiments within a climate model. The results indicate that LSWV is most sensitive to tropical sea surface temperature, with the strongest response occurring in late autumn and early winter. Warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific leads to stratospheric drying, while warming of the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific results in stratospheric moistening. The drying impact on LSWV due to warming in the western Pacific Ocean exceeds the wet effect in the Eastern Pacific Ocean by approximately 60%. The variations in tropical SST influence LSWV by modulating the temperature at the tropical tropopause layer especially over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool through Matsuno-Gill responses. Furthermore, the response of LSWV to tropical SST changes exhibits nonnegligible nonlinearity, which indicates the importance of nonlinearity in determining the LSWV response to global surface warming.

Potential impact of wintertime Arctic forcing on the subsequent sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific

Despite extratropical forcing being recognized as an important factor that can modulate El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) properties on the interannual time scale, little is known about whether and how Arctic forcing changes the tropical sea surface temperature (SST). This current study reveals a significant link between the net surface sensible heat flux (SHF) in the Arctic and the SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP). Specifically, anomalous upward SHF into the Arctic atmosphere in February leads to a warmer TEP in the subsequent spring and summer. A northeast-southwest-tilted North Pacific Oscillation-like atmospheric pattern associated with the upward Arctic SHF anomaly induces SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific via positive Wind-Evaporation-SST feedback, which further promotes TEP SST warming via meridional heat advection, thermocline feedback, and nonlinear processes. The spring-to-summer TEP SST anomalies driven by the preceding anomalous Arctic SHF can potentially modulate the seasonal evolution of ENSO. Our findings imply that we should take into account the Arctic-tropics linkages when comprehensively understanding the ENSO variability and improving ENSO projection skills.

The impact of tropical sea surface temperature on extreme precipitation in Pakistan during the summer of 2022

In August 2022, Pakistan experienced an unprecedented precipitation event that caused significant damage. Analysis of the observations reveals that this extreme rainfall is primarily driven by anomalous atmospheric zonal advection, resulting in an anomalous water vapor concentration in Pakistan. The climatological meridional advection also contributes to this flooding. Anomalous easterly winds and low-level vertical convection combine to be critical factors contributing to the moisture concentration over the country. Further investigation identifies the air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and abnormal warming over the Arabian Sea are crucial factors influencing this extreme flooding event. The concurrent occurrence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event and the warming sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern Arabian Sea intensifies the easterly winds over Pakistan, helping to transfer the anomalous water vapor from the remote region into Pakistan, ultimately contributing to the extreme flooding in 2022.

Enhanced influence of tropical Atlantic Sea surface temperature anomalies on east Asian summer monsoon since the late 1970s

Enhanced influence of tropical Atlantic Sea surface temperature anomalies on east Asian summer monsoon since the late 1970s

Independent contributions of tropical sea surface temperature modes to the interannual variability of western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency

AbstractThis study investigates the independent contributions of three tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) modes to interannual changes in summertime western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency from 1982 to 2022. We primarily analyse partial regressions of TC metrics and environmental variables onto the El Niño–Southern Oscillation Modoki (ENM), North Indian Ocean (NIO) SSTA and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTA indices. We find that although basinwide WNP TC frequency significantly correlates with both the ENM and NIO indices, the regions with the most significant changes in TC formation induced by these two indices are well separated. During El Niño Modoki, significant increases in TC formation concentrate over the southeastern part of the WNP, while during a warm NIO, significant decreases in TC formation concentrate over the northwestern part of the WNP. By contrast, insignificant changes in TC genesis over the WNP are solely induced by TNA SSTAs. We show that the two pathways of TNA SSTA's influence on WNP TC activity through modulation of Pacific and NIO SSTAs are of comparable importance. During El Niño Modoki, significantly enhanced TC genesis over the southeastern WNP can be explained by more favourable environmental conditions, which is linked to an anomalous low‐level cyclonic circulation over the WNP. During a warm NIO, TC genesis is significantly suppressed over the northwestern WNP, due primarily to an anomalous low‐level anticyclonic circulation‐induced decrease in relative vorticity. By contrast, during a warm TNA, no notable changes in environmental variables are found over most of the WNP, while significant flow anomalies are limited to the central‐to‐eastern Pacific and the western Atlantic. These results highlight that the TNA SSTA by itself has a limited impact on WNP TC genesis and the associated large‐scale environment.

Improving the Statistical Representation of Tropical Cyclone In-Storm Sea Surface Temperature Cooling

Improving the Statistical Representation of Tropical Cyclone In-Storm Sea Surface Temperature Cooling

Nonlinear response of summertime synoptic-scale disturbance intensity over the tropical western North Pacific to ENSO amplitude

Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits nonlinearity in its amplitude and impacts. This study investigates the dependence of summertime synoptic-scale disturbance (SSD) intensity over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) on the ENSO amplitude. A tendency of nonlinearity exists in the observed response of the TWNP SSD intensity to the amplitude of tropical central-eastern Pacific (CEP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in boreal summer. Numerical experiments are conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model with linearly varying tropical CEP SST anomalies imposed to illustrate the nonlinearity exclusively induced by changes in the ENSO amplitude. Linear increase in the amplitude of El Niño-like SST anomalies results in a nonlinear enhancement of SSD intensity over the TWNP, manifested as the increase of SSD intensity at a rate larger than expected by linear response with an eastward shift. This is attributed to the nonlinear intensification of anomalous ascent over the TWNP induced by tropical convection response to positive tropical CEP SST anomalies and the nonlinear effect of anomalous convection on the synoptic-scale activity. In contrast, as La Niña-like SST anomalies increase linearly, the SSD intensity over the TWNP decreases at a rate slower than expected from a linear response and even reaches saturation with little longitudinal shift. Due to the thermodynamic control on the occurrence of deep convection in tropics, enhanced negative SST anomalies do not induce additional changes in anomalous descent over the tropical CEP. Thus, the TWNP SSD intensity no longer decreases with further increase in tropical CEP cold SST anomalies.

Exploring covariabilities of the high-summer subtropical upper-level pressure systems in the Northern Hemisphere

The Northern Hemisphere subtropical upper-tropospheric pressure systems, i.e., South Asian high (SAH), mid-Pacific Trough (MPT), and mid-Atlantic Trough (MAT), play key roles in regulating the Eurasian–Pacific–North American climate, but their covariabilities and drivers remain unclear. Here, we reveal two seesaw-like teleconnections between MPT and western SAH (WSAH) and between MPT and MAT during the boreal high summer, respectively, and explore their associations with the tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The MPT-WSAH teleconnection, featured by coherent variations between WSAH and MPT, is coupled with enhanced western Pacific subtropical high and Asian mid-latitude low in the low-level troposphere. In contrast, the MPT-MAT teleconnection features an out-of-phase relationship between MPT and MAT, which is associated with westward expanded western Pacific subtropical high but weakened North Atlantic subtropical high. Both two teleconnections are closely linked to Pacific SST anomalies. However, the former is mainly driven by the hybrid La Niña in the tropical Pacific, where cold SST anomalies spreading eastward since preceding winter. Whereas the latter corresponds to the central Pacific La Niña since late-spring mainly driven by preceding successive SST warming in the tropical North Atlantic. Above conclusions are further confirmed by the simulated results from the numerical experiments, which are performed using the US National Center for Atmospheric Research global Community Atmosphere Model version 4.

Understanding the Inter-Model Spread of PDO’s Impact on Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Western North Pacific in CMIP6 Models

This work investigates the inter-model diversity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s (PDO) impact on tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) from the historical simulation of twenty-two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The impact of the PDO is expressed as the TCF difference between the positive and negative PDO phases. The comparison between the models with high PDO skill and low PDO skill shows that the PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific plays an important role in changing the large-scale atmospheric dynamic fields for TC genesis and, thus, the TCF over the WNP. This SST gradient also significantly contributes to the inter-model spread of PDO’s impact on TCF across the 22 CMIP6 models. We, therefore, stress that the PDO-related eastward SST gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific triggers the lower troposphere westerly and eastward extending of the monsoon trough over the WNP. The moistening of the atmosphere and enhancing ascending motion in the mid-troposphere promote convection, leading to the easterly wind anomaly over the upper troposphere, which reduces the vertical wind shear. Those favorable dynamic conditions consistently promote the TC formation over the southeastern part of the Western North Pacific. Our results highlight that PDO could impact the WNP TCF through its associated tropical SST gradient.

The Tropical Atlantic's Asymmetric Impact on the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

AbstractUsing observations and Atlantic forced coupled model simulations, we show evidence for an asymmetry in the link between beginning of year tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and end of the year El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events. We find a greater tendency for warm Atlantic SSTAs to lead to a La Niña than for cold anomalies to lead to El Niño. The model experiments showed that the Atlantic had a greater chance to force the tropical Pacific if the Pacific was initially in a neutral state. In the model, a warm Atlantic from March–May was able to produce an atmospheric response leading to easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific. This in turn induces a subsurface oceanic response, leading to La Niña at the end of the year. The atmospheric response does not occur for a cold Atlantic, leading to no impacts in the Pacific.