Tropical Rain Belt Research Articles

Clouds and plant ecophysiology: missing links for understanding climate change impacts

Observations and models indicate that human activity is altering cloud patterns on a global scale. Clouds impact incident visible and infrared radiation during both day and night, driving daily and seasonal variability in plant temperatures—a fundamental driver of all physiological processes. To understand the impacts of changing cloud patterns on essential plant-based processes such as carbon sequestration and food production, changes in local cloud regimes must be linked, via ecophysiology, with affected plant systems. This review provides a comprehensive treatment of cloud effects (apart from precipitation) on fundamental ecophysiological processes that serve as the basis of plant growth and reproduction. The radiative effects of major cloud types (cumulus, stratus, cirrus) are differentiated, as well as their relative impacts on plant microclimate and physiology. Cloud regimes of major climate zones (tropical, subtropical, temperate, polar) are superimposed over recent changes in cloud cover and primary productivity. The most robust trends in changing global cloud patterns include: (i) the tropical rain belt (comprised mostly of deep convective clouds) is narrowing, shifting latitudinally, and strengthening, corresponding with shorter but more intense rainy seasons, increased clouds and precipitation in some parts of the tropics, and decreases in others; (ii) tropical cyclones are increasing in intensity and migrating poleward; (iii) subtropical dry zones are expanding, resulting in fewer clouds and drier conditions at these latitudes; (iv) summer mid-latitude storm tracks are weakening and migrating poleward, and clouds in temperate regions are decreasing; and (v) clouds over the Arctic are increasing. A reduction in coastal fog and low clouds (including those associated with montane cloud forests) have also been observed, although these trends can be partially attributed to local patterns of deforestation, urbanization, and/or reductions in aerosols associated with clean air initiatives. We conclude by highlighting gaps in the cloud-ecophysiology literature in order to encourage future research in this under-studied area.

An age-depth model for Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana) to reconstruct one million years of West African climate and environmental change

Situated within a 1.07 million-year-old meteorite crater, Lake Bosumtwi in Ghana stands as a pivotal location for comprehending climatic, ecological and environmental fluctuations within the sub-Saharan region of West Africa. The region's susceptibility to seasonal environmental shifts and climate oscillations is heightened by the annual movements of the tropical rain belt driven by atmospheric circulation. Yet, there is no satisfying age-depth model available for the entire sedimentary sequence strongly limiting our understanding of changes in this circulation pattern and associated (broad-scale) environmental responses during the last million years in the local to regional context of Lake Bosumtwi. To overcome this, we statistically examine the cyclicity in total natural gamma ray (NGR) data on a core from the lake's centre and create a cyclostratigraphic age-depth model. The calculated maximum age of 946 ka agrees well with the meteorite impact age (∼10 % offset). In order to refine this purely statistical approach, we also perform a correlative age-depth model using 33 tie points accounting for the complexity of climatic and environmental imprints to the NGR record that may exceed direct insolation related effects. Special attention is paid to the core's robustly dated (14C, OSL, U/Th) uppermost part covering the last 200 ka. Here, high NGR and co-varying K counts coincide with warm periods (except of the water-saturated and unconsolidated Holocene part) and the inverse for glacials and stadials. Based on this, we define tie points for correlating our NGR data to the age-depth model of a NE Atlantic SST record. Comparing our results to the correlation target, other global climate records and Sahara dust flux data reveals striking similarities and supports a proxy understanding with increased in wash of K-enriched terrigenous material from the crater rims in warm and moist periods (high NGR) and K-depleted dust input in stadials possibly contributing to low NGR values in addition to reduced input of K-enriched sediments from the crater rims. Our correlative age model results in precession amplitudes matching eccentricity well, providing further support especially because an over-tuning is unlikely with the used 33 tie points. Overall we provide crucial chronological context to numerous datasets along with environmental constrains that can be used to study the potential habitat availability of early anatomically modern humans in West Africa.

A sequence of abrupt climatic fluctuations in the north-eastern Caribbean related to the 8.2 ka event

A speleothem collected from Palco Cave (Puerto Rico) spans the 8.2 ka event, a time interval associated with fluctuations of Atlantic Ocean circulation and possible drying in the Caribbean region. While stalagmite δ18O, δ13C, and Mg/Ca data do not show a sustained change in mean state over the 8.2 ka event, the proxies provide robust evidence for three abrupt fluctuations toward drier conditions in rapid succession, each lasting less than two decades, occurring at 8.20, 8.14, and 8.02 ka BP. A cave monitoring program at Palco Cave supports the interpretation of the speleothem proxy records. Because changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are directly coupled to sea-surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic, we hypothesize that cold events in the North Atlantic temporarily limited the northward migration of the ITCZ and tropical rain belt in boreal summer during these abrupt drying periods. The speleothem record suggests that the 8.2 ka event was associated with rapid rainfall fluctuations in the northern Caribbean followed by a comparably warm and wet phase after the 8.2 ka event. This enhanced variability during the transitional period of the deglaciation appears to be linked to a fast coupling between interacting oceanic and atmospheric processes. This involves, in particular, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in modulating interhemispheric heat transport.

Spatiotemporal Intertropical Convergence Zone dynamics during the last 3 millennia in northeastern Brazil and related impacts in modern human history

Abstract. Changes in tropical precipitation over the past millennia have usually been associated with latitudinal displacements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Recent studies provide new evidence that contraction and expansion of the tropical rain belt may also have contributed to ITCZ variability on centennial timescales. Over tropical South America few records point to a similar interpretation, which prevents a clear diagnosis of ITCZ changes in the region. In order to improve our understanding of equatorial rain belt variability, our study presents a reconstruction of precipitation for the last 3200 years from the northeastern Brazil (NEB) region, an area solely influenced by ITCZ precipitation. We analyze oxygen isotopes in speleothems that serve as a faithful proxy for the past location of the southern margin of the ITCZ. Our results, in comparison with other ITCZ proxies, indicate that the range of seasonal migration, contraction, and expansion of the ITCZ was not symmetrical around the Equator on secular and multidecadal timescales. A new NEB ITCZ pattern emerges based on the comparison between two distinct proxies that characterize the ITCZ behavior during the last 2500 years, with an ITCZ zonal pattern between NEB and the eastern Amazon. In NEB, the period related to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA – 950 to 1250 CE) was characterized by an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions. These drier conditions persisted until the onset of the period corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA) in 1560 CE, representing the longest dry period over the last 3200 years in NEB. The ITCZ was apparently forced by teleconnections between Atlantic and Pacific that controlled the position, intensity, and extent of the Walker cell over South America, changing the zonal ITCZ characteristics, while sea surface temperature changes in both the Pacific and Atlantic stretched or weakened the ITCZ-related rainfall meridionally over NEB. Wetter conditions started around 1500 CE in NEB. During the last 500 years, our speleothems document the occurrence of some of the strongest drought events over the last centuries, which drastically affected population and environment of NEB during the Portuguese colonial period. The historical droughts were able to affect the karst system and led to significant impacts over the entire NEB region.

Determination of the chemical equator from GEOS-Chem model simulation: a focus on the tropical western Pacific region

Abstract. The tropical western Pacific (TWP) plays an important role in global stratosphere–troposphere exchange and is an active region of the interhemispheric transport (IHT). Common indicators for transport between the hemispheres like the tropical rain belt are too broad or lack precision in the TWP. In this paper, we provide a method to determine the atmospheric chemical equator (CE), which is a boundary for air mass transport between the two hemispheres in the tropics. This method used the model output from an artificial passive tracer simulated by the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem in the troposphere. We investigated the movement of the CE in the tropics, which indicates the migration of atmospheric circulation systems and air mass origins. Our results show the CE on different timescales, suggesting that the different features of the IHT in different regions are highly related to the variation in the circulation systems. We compared the CE with the tropical wind fields, indicating that the region of IHT does not coincide with the convergence of the 10 m wind fields in the tropical land sectors and the TWP region. We compared the CE with the atmospheric composition such as satellite data of CH4 and model simulation of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). The results show that the CE and north–south gradient of CH4 in the Indian Ocean in January are well consistent with each other, which indicates the CE has good potential to estimate the IHT inferred by observations. We discussed the vertical extent and the meridional extent of the IHT. We find that the vertical structure above 2 km has a slight northern tilt in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter season and a southern tilt in the NH summer, meaning the seasonality of the migration of the CE at the lower altitude is larger than that at the higher altitude. The meridional extent of the CE indicates a narrow transition zone where IHT happens throughout the year. We find that the meridional extent above South America is larger compared to other regions. The distribution of the land–sea contrast plays an important role in the meridional extent of IHT. We focus on the TWP region and further compared the tropical rain belt with the CE. There is a broad region of high precipitation occurring in the TWP region, and it is difficult to determine the IHT by the rain belt. In the NH winter, the CE is not consistent with the tropical rain belt in the TWP but is confined to the southern branch of the peak of the rain belt. For the other seasons, both indicators of IHT agree.

Reduced Tropical Climate Land Area Under Global Warming

AbstractRegions along the edges of the tropics host vast populations and ecosystems which are sensitive to climate change. Here we examine the extent of tropical land areas in the ERA5 and MERRA‐2 reanalyses and in high‐emission scenarios of 45 models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Based on the definition of tropical climate land areas as regions where the diurnal temperature range exceeds the seasonal temperature range, we find a net reduction of tropical land area with global warming. This change is primarily due to an increased seasonal temperature range driven by enhanced summer warming, which in turn is largely driven by reduced evaporative cooling. The reduction of tropical climate area is consistent with a narrowing of the tropical rain belt and with an equatorward and poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zones. Understanding the links between these trends requires further study.

Modality of the Tropical Rain Belt across Models and Simulated Climates

Abstract The tropical rain belt varies between unimodal and bimodal meridional precipitation distributions, both regionally and on seasonal to geological time scales. Here we show that this variation is largely driven by equatorial precipitation inhibition, and quantify it using an equatorial modality index (EMI) that varies continuously between 1 and 2 for purely unimodal and bimodal distributions. We show that tropical modality is a fundamental characteristic of tropical climate, which we define as annual-mean EMI. We examine large-scale aspects of tropical modality across 73 climate models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 45 paleo simulations (∼300 million years ago to present), and observations. We find increased tropical modality to be strongly related to increased width of the tropical rain belt, wider and weaker meridional overturning circulation, colder equatorial cold tongues, and more severe double intertropical convergence zone bias in modern climate models. Tropical sectors (or global zonal means) with low tropical modality are characterized by monsoonal seasonal variations (i.e., seasonal migrations of rainbands following the sun). In sectors with high tropical modality we identify three important seasonal modes: (i) migration of the precipitation distribution toward the warmer hemisphere, (ii) variation in the latitudinal separation between hemispheric rainbands, and (iii) seesaw variation in the intensity of the hemispheric rainbands. In high tropical modality sectors, due to contrasting shifts of the migration and separation modes, counter to general wisdom, seasonal migrations of tropical rainbands cannot be generally assumed to follow the sun. Significance Statement The tropical rain belt is a band of intense precipitation that encircles the tropics. Important tropical phenomena such as monsoons and seasonal shifts of marine rainbands are driven by seasonal migrations of the tropical rain belt, which therefore govern key socioeconomic aspects of tropical populations. This work examines how changes in the north–south profile of tropical precipitation affect large-scale aspects of tropical climate, on seasonal to geological time scales. Specifically, we examine the tendency of the profile of the tropical rain belt to vary from having one to two peaks (i.e., from being unimodal to bimodal). We define an objective quantitative measure of this modality variation, which varies between 1 and 2 for unimodal and bimodal profiles. We then show that the annual mean of this measure is an important general characteristic of tropical climate, which we define as tropical modality. We also show that in tropical regions where tropical modality is low (close to 1), rainbands follow the sun in their seasonal migrations, and conform to the canonical model of the tropical overturning circulation, known as the Hadley circulation, which goes along with monsoonal seasonal variations. However, in regions with high tropical modality (i.e., close to 2), the common theoretical expectation that rainbands follow the sun (or migrate toward the warming hemisphere) is not generally justified. Instead, we identify three important independent seasonal modes of variation: (i) migration of the precipitation distribution toward the warmer hemisphere, (ii) variation in the latitudinal separation between hemispheric rainbands (or width of the precipitation profile), and (iii) seesaw variation in the intensity of the hemispheric rainbands.

Learning by Doing: Seasonal and Diurnal Features of Tropical Precipitation in a Global‐Coupled Storm‐Resolving Model

AbstractUsing the global and coupled ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with the Sapphire configuration (ICON‐S) and a grid spacing of 5 km, we describe seasonal and diurnal features of the tropical rainbelt and assess the limits of ICON‐S in representing tropical precipitation. ICON‐S shows that, by resolving meso‐beta scale process, the rainbelt structure and its seasonality (zonal and meridional migration and enlargement) is reproduced, with better performance over land than over ocean and with a very high degree of agreement to observations. ICON‐S especially struggles in capturing the seasonal features of the tropical rainbelt over the oceans of the Eastern Hemisphere, an issue associated with a cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias at the equator. ICON‐S also shows that a perfect representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land is not a requirement to capture the seasonal features of the rainbelt over land, while over the ocean, 5 km is sufficient to adequately represent the diurnal cycle of precipitation.

Kalimantan hydroclimate variability since the last glacial period

Changes in convective activity and hydroclimate over Northeastern Kalimantan are key features to understand glacial to interglacial climate evolution in the center of the West Pacific Warm Pool during the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. We use high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanner-derived elemental ratios in sediment Core SO217-18522 (1º 24.106’ N, 119º 4.701’E, 975 m water depth) recovered from the northern Makassar Strait to reconstruct changes in precipitation-related weathering and erosion over Northeastern Kalimantan over the last 50 kyr. Enhanced seasonality of rainfall and an extended dry season during Heinrich Stadials (HS4 to HS1) and the Younger Dryas (YD) suggest weakening of the tropical convection associated with a southward shift of the tropical rain belt and the annual mean position of the Intertropical Tropical Convection Zone. Increasing sediment discharge and intensification of convective activity occurred during the early to mid-Holocene during an interval of high Northern Hemisphere insolation, elevated atmospheric pCO2 levels and global warming. Our reconstructions in comparison with regional terrestrial and marine records highlight the high spatial variability of Kalimantan hydroclimate on millennial to glacial-interglacial timescales.

Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems

Abstract. The study of past climates has demonstrated the occurrence of Heinrich events during which major ice discharges occurred at the polar ice sheet, leading to significant additional sea level rise. Heinrich events strongly influenced the oceanic circulation and global climate. However, standard climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) do not consider such potential rapid ice sheet collapse; RCPs only consider the dynamic evolution of greenhouse gas emissions. We carried out water-hosing simulations using the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace global Climate Model (IPSL-CM5A) to simulate a rapid melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, equivalent to +1 and +3 m additional sea level rise (SLR). Freshwater inputs were added to the standard RCP8.5 emission scenario over the 21st century. The contribution to the SLR from Greenland or from Antarctic ice sheets has differentiated impacts. The freshwater input in the Antarctic is diluted by the circumpolar current, and its global impact is moderate. Conversely, a rapid melting of the ice sheet in the North Atlantic slows down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This slowdown leads to changes in winds, inter-hemispheric temperature and pressure gradients, resulting in a southward shift of the tropical rain belt over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific region. The American and African monsoons are strongly affected and shift to the south. Changes in the North American monsoon occur later, while changes in the South American monsoon start earlier. The North African monsoon is drier during boreal summer, while the southern African monsoon intensifies during austral summer. Simulated changes were not significant for the Asian and Australian monsoons.

Anthropogenic aerosol impacts on Pacific Coast precipitation in CMIP6 models

Studies show anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) can perturb regional precipitation, including the tropical rain belt and monsoons of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In the NH mid-latitudes, however, the impact of AAs on regional climate and precipitation remains uncertain. This work investigates the influence of AAs on wintertime precipitation along the North American Pacific Coast using models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Over the early to mid-20th century, when U.S. and European AA and precursor gas emissions rapidly increased, a robust wintertime precipitation dipole pattern exists in CMIP6 all-forcing and AA-only forcing simulations, with wetting of the southern Pacific Coast (southward of ∼40∘ N) and drying to the north. A corresponding dynamical dipole pattern also occurs—including strengthening of the east Pacific jet southward of ∼40∘ N and weakening to the north—which is related to a Rossby wave teleconnection that emanates out of the tropical Pacific. Over the 21st century, when AAs are projected to decrease, an opposite hydro-dynamic dipole pattern occurs, including drying southward of 40∘ N (including California) and wetting to the north. Although Pacific Coast precipitation is dominated by natural variability, good multi-model agreement in the forced component of Pacific Coast precipitation change exists, with the AA pattern (north south dipole) dominating the greenhouse gas (uniform) pattern in the historical all-forcing simulations. A high level of agreement in individual model-realization trends also exists, particularly for the early part of the 20th century, suggesting a robustness to the human signature on Pacific Coast precipitation changes. Thus, historical precipitation responses along the Pacific Coast are likely to have been driven by a mixture of natural variability and forced changes. Natural variations appear to drive a large fraction of this change, but human influences (i.e. aerosols) are likely to have preconditioned the variability of the climate in this region.

Tropical Continents Rainier Than Expected From Geometrical Constraints

AbstractAbundant rainfall over tropical land masses sustains rich ecosystems, a crucial source of biodiversity and sink of carbon. Here, we use two characteristics of the observed tropical precipitation distribution, its distinctive zonal arrangement and its partitioning between land and ocean, to understand whether land conditions the climate to receive more than its fair share of precipitation as set by the land‐sea distribution. Our analysis demonstrates that it is not possible to explain the tropics‐wide partitioning of precipitation unless one assumes that rain is favored over land. Land receives more than its fair share of precipitation by broadening and letting the tropical rainbelts move more, effectively underpinning a negative feedback between surface water storage and precipitation. In contrast, rain is disfavored over land in climate models. Our findings suggest that the abundance of rainfall that shapes the terrestrial tropical biosphere is more robust to perturbations than models have suggested.

Australian–Indonesian monsoon rainfall responses to the northern hemisphere climatic changes prior to the Last Glacial Maximum: an early indication

The evidences of Australian-Indonesian monsoon (AIM) rainfall response to the northern hemisphere climatic changes from both marine and terrestrial proxies are well established for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) – Deglaciation time interval but not in the previous time interval. Sediment cores from off south Sumba (ST10) and off north Sumba (Sumba strait) (ST14) were analyzed using X-Ray Fluorescence method to obtain elemental proxies. Elemental ratios which reflect terrigenous input (Ti/Ca and K/Ca) are used to infer the AIM rainfall changes since ~42 ka BP. AIM rainfall changes indicate a clear response to the Heinrich Events prior to the LGM (H2, H3, and H4). H2 and H3 are corroborated with the AIM rainfall increases in off south Sumba (~24 – 26 ka BP and ~30 – 31 ka BP) while the AIM rainfall increase (~39 – 41 ka BP) in the Sumba strait indicates a response to H4. The cooler temperature during the Heinrich Events could enhance the Northern Hemisphere (NH) cold surges which eventually pushed the Austral summer Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward in a similar fashion to the Last Deglaciation period (~18 – 11 ka BP). The southward movement of Austral summer ITCZ should increase the research area’s exposure time to the Tropical Rain Belt (TRB) during the Australian – Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) which eventually triggers the AIM rainfall increase. The Sumba strait AIM rainfall unresponsiveness to H2 and H3 could be related to the constant exposure time to the TRB which indicates that the southern limit of Austral summer ITCZ during its northernmost shift didn’t reach the latitude of Sumba Strait. Comparison with other proxies from the same site and other rainfall proxies from southern Indonesia and the northern Australia regions is needed to confirm the spatial extend of those responses.

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part II: Summer Monsoons

Abstract The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet control simulations and experiments with a highly idealized narrow tropical continent (0°–45°W, 30°S–30°N). We compare the two setups to contrast the characteristics of oceanic and continental rainbands and investigate monsoon development in GCMs with CMIP5-class dynamics and physics. Over land, the rainy season occurs close to the time of maximum insolation. Other than in its timing, the continental rainband remains in an ITCZ-like regime akin to deep-tropical monsoons, with a smooth latitudinal transition, a poleward reach only slightly farther than that of the oceanic ITCZ (about 10°), and a constant width throughout the year. This confinement of the monsoon to the deep tropics is the result of a tight coupling between regional rainfall and circulation anomalies: ventilation of the lower troposphere by the anomalous meridional circulation is the main limiting mechanism, while ventilation by the mean westerly jet aloft is secondary. Comparison of two subsets of TRACMIP simulations indicates that a low heat capacity determines, to a first degree, both the timing and the strength of the regional solsticial circulation; this lends support to the choice of idealizing land as a thin slab ocean in much theoretical literature on monsoon dynamics. Yet, the timing and strength of the monsoon are modulated by the treatment of evaporation over land, especially when moisture and radiation can interact. This points to the need for a fuller exploration of land characteristics in the hierarchical modeling of the tropical rainbands.

The Effect of Explicit Convection on Climate Change in the West African Monsoon and Central West African Sahel Rainfall

AbstractThe West African monsoon (WAM) is the dominant feature of West African climate providing the majority of annual rainfall. Projections of future rainfall over the West African Sahel are deeply uncertain, with a key reason likely to be moist convection, which is typically parameterized in global climate models. Here, we use a pan-African convection-permitting simulation (CP4), alongside a parameterized convection simulation (P25), to determine the key processes that underpin the effect of explicit convection on the climate change of the central West African Sahel (12°–17°N, 8°W–2°E). In current climate, CP4 affects WAM processes on multiple scales compared to P25. There are differences in the diurnal cycles of rainfall, moisture convergence, and atmospheric humidity. There are upscale impacts: the WAM penetrates farther north, there is greater humidity over the northern Sahel and the Saharan heat low regions, the subtropical subsidence rate over the Sahara is weaker, and ascent within the tropical rain belt is deeper. Under climate change, the WAM shifts northward and Hadley circulation weakens in P25 and CP4. The differences between P25 and CP4 persist, however, underpinned by process differences at the diurnal scale and large scale. Mean rainfall increases 17.1% in CP4 compared to 6.7% in P25 and there is greater weakening in tropical ascent and subtropical subsidence in CP4. These findings show the limitations of parameterized convection and demonstrate the value that explicit convection simulations can provide to climate modelers and climate policy decision makers.

Significantly enhanced mid Holocene fluvial activity in a globally important, arid‐zone wetland: The Okavango Delta, Botswana

AbstractInformation on past dryland environments is commonly derived from geomorphological landforms and sediments (‘geoproxies’). The Okavango Delta in the middle Kalahari, Botswana, has been subject to a long history of arid–humid transitions but its potentially rich archive of fluvial geoproxies is largely untapped. Previous palaeoenvironmental studies in the Delta region have focused mainly on aeolian dunes, lacustrine beach ridges, and rare pollen sequences in surrounding locations, and the Delta's channel dynamics have remained poorly constrained, both chronologically and in quantitative palaeohydrological terms. Focusing on the Delta's Xugana region, we present the first optically stimulated luminescence ages for palaeochannel fills and scroll bars, revealing significantly enhanced fluvial activity in the ~7–4 ka interval. Along 120–150 m‐wide, sand‐bed, sinuous palaeochannels, lateral migration and bend cutoffs were driven by palaeodischarges up to ~350–450 m3 s−1, at least nine times those of the present‐day channels. These palaeochannels represent the last major phase of meander activity in the middle and lower Delta. The palaeodischarges imply significantly higher rainfall over the catchment in the mid Holocene, possibly resulting from a southwards shift of the African tropical rainbelt. Over the last few thousand years, diminished fluvial activity in the Xugana region has continued; <20 m‐wide channels with discharges typically <40 m3 s−1 have been more laterally stable, albeit subject to local avulsions. These findings provide the ‘missing link’ between evidence for past intervals of enhanced rainfall in the Delta's tributary catchments in the northwest and west and the filling of large lacustrine basins to the southeast and east. The findings contribute to improved understanding of changing Kalahari hydroclimates and support growing evidence indicating that the mid to late Holocene was a time of significant fluvial transformation across many of the world's drylands.

Additional multi-proxy stalagmite evidence from northeast Namibia supports recent models of wetter conditions during the 4.2 ka Event in the Southern Hemisphere

The 4.2 ka Event has generally been regarded as a period of decades to at most a few centuries in which comparatively dry conditions existed in the Middle East and more broadly across the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere. This paper presents new stable-isotopic and petrographic observations from two previously-unreported U-Th-dated stalagmites from Dante Cave in northeastern Namibia. The results are most compatible with wetter conditions during the 4.2 ka Event, and wetness during the 4.2 ka Event is the only inference supported by evidence. These new results add to observations previously reported from a third Dante Cave stalagmite suggesting a comparatively wet 4.2 ka Event in which Africa's Tropical Rain Belt migrated southward and rainfall increased along the Congo Air Boundary and/or Kalahari Discontinuity. The new results support findings from three other locations in Namibia and Botswana, from at least seven other locations in the Southern Hemisphere, and at least one in southern China, that suggest a wetter rather than drier 4.2 ka Event in those regions. The pattern emerging from these sites generally agrees with recent modeling results indicating increased moisture over broad areas (but not all) of the Southern Hemisphere. This in turn suggests a 4.2 ka Event that was not a global drought but was instead a set of latitudinally-dependent responses to global-scale southward migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and thus Africa's loosely linked Tropical Rain Belt, as a result of cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, which brought drier conditions to some areas and wetter conditions to others. • Like one before, two new stalagmites indicate wet 4.2 ka Event in northeast Namibia. • Layer-bounding surfaces and stable isotope data document the wet 4.2 ka Event. • Growing body of proxy evidence from Southern Hemisphere indicates a wet 4.2 ka Event. • Independent modeling supports proxy evidence of wet Southern Hemisphere 4.2 ka Event. • Tropical Rain Belt and ITCZ migrated southward with Northern-Hemisphere cooling.

Delayed recovery of the tropical rain belt

Delayed recovery of the tropical rain belt

Revisiting the strong and weak ENSO teleconnection impacts using a high-resolution atmospheric model

To evaluate the performance of a high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) and to improve our understanding of the climatic impacts of ENSO forcing and associated teleconnections, we analyzed AMIP-style HiRAM simulations conducted effectively at 25 km grid spacing. To better assess HiRAM response to ENSO climate variability; we categorized it into strong and weak El Niño/La Niña episodes. The HiRAM model reproduced the impacts of strong ENSO over global scale very well, however, it underestimated ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over regional scale (e.g., MENA and South Asia), especially following weak ENSO that could be attributed to model weak response to circulation changes such as Pacific North American (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Moreover, our results emphasize that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extra-tropics and high-latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall over the African tropical rain-belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia. Both the reanalysis and HiRAM results reveal that ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa vary significantly following the increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña). We further found that the ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The El Niño phase of ENSO overall strengthens the Hadley Cell, and the reverse is true for the La Niña phase. This ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley Cell induce significant impact over South Asian and African convective regions through modification of the ITCZ circulation system.

Investigating the Causes and Impacts of Convective Aggregation in a High Resolution Atmospheric GCM

AbstractA ∼50 km resolution atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is used to investigate the impact of radiative interactions on spatial organization of convection, the model's mean state, and extreme precipitation events in the presence of realistic boundary conditions. Mechanism‐denial experiments are performed in which synoptic‐scale feedbacks between radiation and dynamics are suppressed by overwriting the model‐generated atmospheric radiative cooling rates with its monthly varying climatological values. When synoptic‐scale radiative interactions are disabled, the annual mean circulation and precipitation remain almost unchanged, however tropical convection becomes less aggregated, with an increase in cloud fraction and relative humidity in the free troposphere but a decrease in both variables in the boundary layer. Changes in cloud fraction and relative humidity in the boundary layer exhibit more sensitivity to the presence of radiative interactions than variations in the degree of aggregation. The less aggregated state is associated with a decrease in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, coincident with a decrease in the dynamical contribution to the magnitude of extreme precipitation. At regional scales, the spatial contrast in radiative cooling between dry and moist regions diminishes when radiative interactions are suppressed, reducing the upgradient transport of energy, degree of aggregation, and frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, the mean width of the tropical rain belt remains almost unaffected when radiative interactions are disabled. These results offer insights into how radiation‐circulation coupling affects the spatial organization of convection, distributions of clouds and humidity, and weather extremes.