Water Vapor In Tropical Lower Stratosphere Research Articles

Significant Stratospheric Moistening Following Extreme El Niño Events

The moistening impact of El Niño on the tropical lower stratosphere has been extensively studied, yet a long-standing challenge is its potential nonlinearities regarding the strength of El Niño. Extreme El Niño’s hydration in 2015/2016 was unprecedented in the satellite era, providing a great opportunity to distinguish the differential response of water vapor to extreme and moderate El Niño. Using ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data from 1979–2019, we compare the composite tropical lower stratospheric water vapor anomalies throughout all extreme and moderate El Niño episodes since the satellite era. We validate the variations in the lower stratospheric water vapor during the two distinct El Niño episodes using a three-dimensional chemistry transport model simulating the same period. The model reproduces the observed pattern in lower stratospheric water vapor. Both demonstrate that robust moistening during extreme El Niño events occurs throughout the tropical lower stratosphere. However, moderate El Niño events seem to have a weak effect on lower stratospheric water vapor. In comparison to moderate El Niño, the strong convective activities induced by extreme El Niño release large amounts of latent heat, causing extensive and intense warming in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, thus greatly increasing the water vapor content in the tropical lower stratosphere. Additionally, moderate El Niño events have strong seasonality in their hydration effect in the tropics, whereas the intense moistening effect of extreme El Niño events prevails in all seasons during their episodes.

Analysis of factors influencing tropical lower stratospheric water vapor during 1980\u20132017

Tropical cold point tropopause temperature (CPT) anomalies determine lower stratospheric water vapor (LSWV) variations, leading to a high correlation between variations in tropical average CPT and changes in tropical average LSWV. However, this high correlation is only found in winter and spring. This work revisits the factors controlling LSWV variations using observations and simulations over the past ~40 years. It is found that the first and second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of tropical CPT variations together explain the tropical average LSWV changes much better than the tropical average CPT variations. The high correlation between the first and second EOF modes of tropical CPT variations and tropical average LSWV changes holds in all four seasons. A further analysis shows that the first and second EOF modes of tropical CPT variations are related to canonical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity and sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the central Pacific Ocean, respectively. ENSO Modoki is also an important factor that affects LSWV variations by influencing the vertical velocity at the tropopause. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) affects the CPT, and is the third process modulating the LSWV changes. The simulations also support the results.

Dry phase of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor: Role of BDC, convection and ozone variability

In the present paper, the relationship between dry phase of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS) and 100hPa temperatures (T100) has been examined. Role of various processes, such as Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), convective activities and seasonal minimum of ozone mixing ratio, has been quantified to explain the reason of low T100 over Indonesian-Australian western Pacific region (IAWPR). Aura MLS data show that low water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) first appears over the western Pacific during northern hemisphere (NH) winters and directs the dry phase of TLS. Observations of low T100 (~188K), close association between WVMR and T100, slow transport of water vapor in TLS and saturation of air close to 82.5–100hPa over IAWPR indicate conditions favorable for 'freeze drying'. Present analysis has brought out several interesting features (a) in addition to BDC, convective activities and low ozone mixing ratio near the tropopause level seems to be contributing to the low T100 over IAWPR during NH winter/spring, (b) apart from the seasonal decrease, T100 over IAWPR is noted to be continually low throughout the year by ~1.2K than the zonal mean value where part of such decrease in T100 (i.e. ~0.7K) can be understood in terms of water vapor feedback process and (c) wave activity of different temporal scale and amplitude (~1–2K) also modulate T100 over IAWPR. MLS observations also provide an evidence of coupling between the surface and TLS processes, if the sea surface temperature over IAWPR is more than 301.7K.

Seasonal to decadal variations of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere observed with balloon‐borne cryogenic frost point hygrometers

We investigated water vapor variations in the tropical lower stratosphere on seasonal, quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), and decadal time scales using balloon‐borne cryogenic frost point hygrometer data taken between 1993 and 2009 during various campaigns including the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment (March 1993), campaigns once or twice annually during the Soundings of Ozone and Water in the Equatorial Region (SOWER) project in the eastern Pacific (1998–2003) and in the western Pacific and Southeast Asia (2001–2009), and the Ticosonde campaigns and regular sounding at Costa Rica (2005–2009). Quasi‐regular sounding data taken at Costa Rica clearly show the tape recorder signal. The observed ascent rates agree well with the ones from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) satellite sensor. Average profiles from the recent five SOWER campaigns in the equatorial western Pacific in northern winter and from the three Ticosonde campaigns at Costa Rica (10°N) in northern summer clearly show two effects of the QBO. One is the vertical displacement of water vapor profiles associated with the QBO meridional circulation anomalies, and the other is the concentration variations associated with the QBO tropopause temperature variations. Time series of cryogenic frost point hygrometer data averaged in a lower stratospheric layer together with HALOE and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder data show the existence of decadal variations: The mixing ratios were higher and increasing in the 1990s, lower in the early 2000s, and probably slightly higher again or recovering after 2004. Thus linear trend analysis is not appropriate to investigate the behavior of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor.

The relationship between tropospheric wave forcing and tropical lower stratospheric water vapor

Abstract. Using water vapor data from HALOE and SAGE II, an anti-correlation between planetary wave driving (here expressed by the mid-latitude eddy heat flux at 50 hPa added from both hemispheres) and tropical lower stratospheric (TLS) water vapor has been obtained. This appears to be a manifestation of the inter-annual variability of the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation strength (the driving of which is generally measured in terms of the mid-latitude eddy heat flux), and hence amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. Some years such as 1991 and 1997 show, however, a clear departure from the anti-correlation which suggests that the water vapor changes in TLS can not be attributed solely to changes in extratropical planetary wave activity (and its effect on the BD circulation). After 2000 a sudden decrease in lower stratospheric water vapor has been reported in earlier studies based upon satellite data from HALOE, SAGE II and POAM III indicating that the lower stratosphere has become drier since then. This is consistent with a sudden rise in the combined mid-latitude eddy heat flux with nearly equal contribution from both hemispheres as shown here and with the increase in tropical upwelling and decrease in cold point temperatures found by Randel et al. (2006). The low water vapor and enhanced planetary wave activity (in turn strength of the BD circulation) has persisted until the end of the satellite data records. From a multi-variate regression analysis applied to 27 years of NCEP and HadAT2 (radiosonde) temperatures (up to 2005) with contributions from solar cycle, stratospheric aerosols and QBO removed, the enhancement wave driving after 2000 is estimated to contribute up to 0.7 K cooling to the overall TLS temperature change during the period 2001–2005 when compared to the period 1996–2000. NCEP cold point temperature show an average decrease of nearly 0.4 K from changes in the wave driving, which is consistent with observed mean TLS water vapor changes of about −0.2 ppm after 2000.

Recovery of the tropical lower stratospheric ozone layer

[1] Long-term time dependent simulations out to the year 2050 using the Goddard Space Flight Center interactive 2D chemistry-radiation-dynamics model are used to predict tropical lower stratospheric ozone. The model results show that when chlorine levels are enhanced, heterogeneous chemistry on the surfaces of middle and high latitude sulfate aerosols and polar stratospheric clouds induces circulation changes which lead to ozone depletion in the tropical lower stratosphere. We find that despite a return to background chlorine levels, the tropical lower stratospheric ozone layer will not recover because of a reduction in penetrating ultraviolet radiation. This reduction is due to the faster upper stratospheric ozone recovery with increasing carbon dioxide. With background aerosol amounts, tropical ozone at 50 hPa is reduced by ∼2% between 1980 and 1997 and remains at that level of depletion out to 2050. The simulations also suggest that tropical tropopause temperatures will be lowered by a maximum of 0.1 K between 1980 and 2015, resulting in a maximum reduction of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor of 2% between 1980 and 2018. These results may have important implications for recovery detection strategies.