Occurrence Of Tropical Cyclones Research Articles

Robust future projections of global spatial distribution of major tropical cyclones and sea level pressure gradients

Despite the profound societal impacts of intense tropical cyclones (TCs), prediction of future changes in their regional occurrence remains challenging owing to climate model limitations and to the infrequent occurrence of such TCs. Here we reveal projected changes in the frequency of major TC occurrence (i.e., maximum sustained wind speed: ≥ 50 m s−1) on the regional scale. Two independent high-resolution climate models projected similar changes in major TC occurrence. Their spatial patterns highlight an increase in the Central Pacific and a reduction in occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere—likely attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, this study suggests that major TCs can modify large-scale sea-level pressure fields, potentially leading to the abrupt onset of strong wind speeds even when the storm centers are thousands of kilometers away. This study highlights the amplified risk of storm-related hazards, specifically in the Central Pacific, even when major TCs are far from the populated regions.

Tropical Cyclones in the GEOS-S2S-2 Subseasonal Forecasts

Abstract This paper analyzes the climatology, prediction skill, and predictability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system version 2. GEOS reasonably simulates the number and spatial distribution of TCs compared to observations except in the Atlantic where the model simulates too few TCs due to low genesis rates in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The environmental conditions, diagnosed through a genesis potential index, do not clearly explain model biases in the genesis rates, especially in the Atlantic. At the storm scale, GEOS reforecasts replicate several key aspects of the thermodynamic and dynamic structures of observed TCs, such as a warm core and the secondary circulation. The model, however, fails to simulate an off-center eyewall when evaluating vertical velocity, precipitation, and moisture. The analysis of the prediction skill of TC genesis and occurrence shows that GEOS has comparable skill to other global models in WMO S2S archive and that its skill could be further improved by increasing the ensemble size. After calibration, GEOS forecasts are skillful in the western North Pacific and southern Indian Ocean up to 20 days in advance. A model-based predictability analysis demonstrates the importance of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) as a source of predictability of TC occurrence beyond the 14-day lead time. Forecasts initialized under strong MJO conditions show evidence of predictability beyond week 3. However, due to model biases in the forecast distribution, there are notable gaps between the MJO-related prediction skill and predictability, which require further study.

A Proxy System Modeling Approach to Combining Tree‐Ring and Sediment‐Based Paleotempestological Records

AbstractThe short and biased observational record of tropical cyclones (TCs) limits scientific understanding of how these destructive storms respond to climate forcing. Paleohurricane records use natural archives (tree rings, coarse‐grained sediment) to reconstruct TC properties (frequency and intensity of rainfall, wind) over the past few hundreds to thousands of years. However, different sensitivities and sampling biases in the various paleohurricane proxies restrict our ability to compile these records into regional or basin‐scale TC estimates. Here we test how well pseudo tree‐ring records of paleohurricanes capture TC rainfall and occurrence. Using a large set of statistically downscaled storms forced with the Max Planck Institute (MPI‐ESM‐P) model as boundary conditions for the past millennium, we generate a 1000‐member ensemble of pseudo tree‐ring records of latewood width from southern Mississippi using a Poisson process‐based random draw. Pseudo records convert synthetic TC rainfall into latewood width using a previously published statistical calibration and seasonal sensitivity. We show that fourth quantile thresholds applied to pseudo latewood data successfully identify years with TC strikes. Comparing pseudo tree‐ring records with pseudo sediment records from the Gulf Coast indicates promise in combining proxies sensitive to TC rainfall with proxies sensitive to storm overwash. Sediment records that are sensitive to lower intensity storms (≥Saffir Simpson Category 1) are more compatible with tree‐ring records, suggesting a need for more of these low intensity threshold records in the Gulf to facilitate future multi‐proxy efforts to reconstruct past TC properties.

Skilful multiweek predictions of tropical cyclone frequency in the Northern Hemisphere using ACCESS‐S2

AbstractThe skill of subseasonal (multiweek) forecasts of tropical‐cyclone (TC) occurrence over the Northern Hemisphere is examined in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) multiweek to seasonal prediction system, ACCESS‐S2. ACCESS‐S2 shows a good representation of the spatial distribution of TCs in the Northern Hemisphere; however, TC track frequency is generally underpredicted in the western North Pacific to the east of the Philippines and in the eastern North Pacific. The reduced activity relative to observations could be due to a significant positive bias in 850–200‐hPa wind shear in both of these regions, as well as a significant negative sea‐surface temperature (SST) bias in the eastern North Pacific. Despite biases in climatological TC frequency, the observed change in TC track frequency across the Northern Hemisphere with the phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is well captured by ACCESS‐S2. Changes in the large‐scale environment (e.g., precipitation, 600‐hPa relative humidity, 850‐hPa absolute vorticity and 850–200‐hPa wind shear) are also well represented, with the location and size of the anomalies comparable to ERA‐Interim, apart from SST which shows a different response during some phases. ACCESS‐S2 shows skill relative to climatology for multiweek predictions of TC occurrence out to week 5 in the western North Pacific, eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic; and out to week 2 for the North Indian Ocean. Assessment of real‐time forecasts for Typhoon Rai (December 2021) showed that ACCESS‐S2 provided good guidance of the development and potential landfall of a TC in the Philippines at four weeks lead time.

The weakening effect of urbanization on tropical cyclone surface winds : An observational study for Shanghai

The observation-reanalysis difference method (OMR) and wind profile fitting method were used to analyze the influence urbanization has on the near-surface wind speed in Shanghai during tropical cyclone events. The data used include daily wind speed data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory Station collected from 1991 to 2020, hourly wind speed data from 100 m high wind towers from 2017 to 2019, and reanalysis data that covered the same period. The results indicated that during tropical cyclone occurrence, the wind speed of the OMR in the central urban region was significantly lower than that in the suburban area, and the OMR declined more obviously over the year, down to −8 m/s in 2020. Urbanization leads to the increase of average wind weakening rate to be higher than the maximum wind weakening rate, causing the maximum weakening rate of the central urban region to the average wind over 80%, while maximum wind speed was less than 80%. The weakening rate of both the average and maximum wind speeds during tropical cyclone impacts is greater than the rate that the annual average wind speed was reduced. A logarithmic variation was visible in the wind profile of the island station during tropical cyclone occurrence, with an average friction velocity U∗ of 0.9389 m/s and an average rough length Z0 of 0.4915 m. The wind speed during tropical cyclone events was higher than the three-year average wind speed within each layer. The suburban stations show a linear variation, and every hundred meters of height results in an increase of 5–6 m/s in the wind speed change rate. At 100 m of altitude, the wind speed in the suburban region is reduced by approximately 40%.

A new and efficient method for tropical cyclone detection and tracking in gridded datasets

Most of existing algorithms for detecting tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate model employed multiple detectors, and screened the field grid by grid by thresholding, while a quantitative assessment of the performance of these algorithms has been infrequent. A new method based on mathematical morphology for detecting and tracking TC in gridded reanalysis data is proposed and evaluated. The method begins by transforming the field of lower-tropospheric (850 hPa) relative vorticity from the reanalysis data into a binary image using a defined critical vorticity threshold. The images are then processed by connected component labeling and erosion operations until inner cores emerge as the TC seeds. Simple rules for connecting the seeds to form TC tracks are proposed. Twenty years of ERA5 data and the China Meteorological Administration best track data (CMA) in 2002–2021 are used to develop and evaluate the method for the Western North Pacific basin (WNP). The detected TC events are examined track-by-track with the observed ones. The performance of the method is further evaluated in terms of the statistics of TC occurrence, track density, landfall location, and translational speed. It is demonstrated that the proposed method can reproduce the TC tracks for both over ocean and after landfall with good accuracy and efficiency. The source of erroneous tracking and limitation of the proposed method are discussed. Given its satisfactory performance in tracking TCs in the WNP basin, it is promising to be applied to the study of TC changes in a warming climate.

Study of the Sea Temperature Backgrounds to Tropical Cyclones Affecting Hainan Province in the Dry Season

Using the best path data set of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration, NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) SST (surface sea temperature) data and NCEP subsurface sea temperature data, the sea temperature background of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan Province in the dry season was analyzed using typical cases from November to December. The results show that there was a significant positive correlation between the number of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan Province and the sea surface temperature in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. The high SST in the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific were favorable for the occurrence and development of tropical cyclones. The circulation situation also had a significant impact on tropical cyclones during the concurrent period. The wind field convergence was conducive to the occurrence and development of tropical cyclones. The high subsurface sea temperature in the Western Pacific at the depth of 5–50 m was conducive to the strengthening of convection in the Pacific warm pool and the occurrence of the tropical cyclones. The typical cases of 1993 and 2017 have effectively verified the impact of the sea surface temperature background and circulation situation on tropical cyclones affecting the Hainan Province from November to December.

Multiweek tropical cyclone prediction for the Southern Hemisphere in ACCESS‐S2: Maintaining operational skill and continuity of service

AbstractThe skill of subseasonal (multiweek) forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence over the Southern Hemisphere is examined in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) multiweek to seasonal prediction system, ACCESS‐S2. Relative to its predecessor, ACCESS‐S1, ACCESS‐S2 shows improved biases in spatial TC frequency in the South Pacific and Southwest Indian Ocean. However, there is no improvement to the known negative bias in TC frequency off the coast of NW Australia. The ability of ACCESS‐S2 to provide probabilistic forecasts of TC occurrence for the Southern Hemisphere on multiweek timescales is examined using reliability measures and Brier skill scores. For the period November–February 1990–2012, both ACCESS‐S1 and ACCESS‐S2 show positive skill relative to climatology for calibrated forecasts out to week 5. However, the skill of ACCESS‐S2 is slightly reduced compared to ACCESS‐S1 at all lead times, which may be due to the fewer number of ensemble members available. For the full ACCESS‐S2 hindcast period, November–April 1981–2018, ACCESS‐S2 again shows positive skill of calibrated forecasts over climatology out to week 5. For weeks 1–2, skill is reduced compared to the shorter 1990–2012 period; whereas it is marginally improved for longer lead times (weeks 3–5). Use of lagged ensembles, an alternative linear regression calibration, as well as removing weaker model TCs were examined to potentially improve the skill of ACCESS‐S2 forecasts; however, none of these methods were able to significantly increase skill at all lead times. Continued use of the original calibration method is therefore recommended in order to retain skill and continuity of service of the BoM operational and public multiweek TC forecasts.

Influence of synoptic weather on aerosol variability over East Asia: Present and future

Aerosol variability is influenced by changes in emissions and atmospheric dynamics. The aim of this study is to identify the role of synoptic weather systems in affecting the aerosol variation over East Asia under future changes in atmospheric dynamics. First we investigate the influence of synoptic weather on aerosol optical depth (AOD) spatiotemporal variability using long-term observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We demonstrate that the major synoptic weather patterns of each season are among the dominant factors that affect AOD variations. During spring and autumn, AOD variability is significantly influenced by dynamic transport under northeasterly (winter monsoon) or southwesterly (summer monsoon) conditions. In summer, the maximum anomaly of the AOD variability was associated with the occurrence of fronts and tropical cyclones near Taiwan. While in winter, cold surge was the major event controlling the AOD variability. As atmospheric dynamics are well connected with AOD interannual variability, the AOD predictability over East Asia is associated with the predictability of synoptic weather systems. We apply the high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) to identify these weather systems in present climate and under future warming scenarios. Under future climate based on HiRAM, the occurrence of summer tropical cyclones decreases by 32%, and the autumn southwesterly pattern increases by 50%. Considering the frequency change in summer tropical cyclones and autumn southwestlies under future scenarios, this may lead to the accumulation of AOD over China during summer and autumn through dynamic transport. The results suggest that AOD variations in East Asia may change along with future changes in the large-scale circulation under global warming.

Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in the S2S Models

Abstract This study evaluates the representation of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) in reforecasts from the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project. The global distribution of precipitation in S2S models shows relevant biases in the multimodel mean ensemble that are characterized by wet biases in total precipitation and TCP, except for the Atlantic. The TCP biases can contribute more than 50% of the total precipitation biases in basins such as the southern Indian Ocean and South Pacific. The magnitude and spatial pattern of these biases exhibit little variation with lead time. The origins of TCP biases can be attributed to biases in the frequency of tropical cyclone occurrence. The S2S models simulate too few TCs in the Atlantic and western North Pacific and too many TCs in the Southern Hemisphere and eastern North Pacific. At the storm scale, the average peak precipitation near the storm center is lower in the models than observations due to a too high proportion of weak TCs. However, this bias is offset in some models by higher than observed precipitation rates at larger radii (300–500 km). An analysis of the mean TCP for each TC at each grid point reveals an overestimation of TCP rates, particularly in the near-equatorial Indian and western Pacific Oceans. These findings suggest that the simulation of TC occurrence and the storm-scale precipitation require better representation in order to reduce TCP biases and enhance the subseasonal prediction skill of mean and extreme total precipitation.

Melioidosis an Emerging Disease in the Indian Ocean Region: Case Series Study in Mayotte

Background: Burkholderia pseudomallei is the agent of melioidosis. It is a bacterium from the hydrotelluric environment, highly pathogenic for humans. The geographical distribution of this disease is spreading and now affects the southwest of the Indian Ocean and in Mayotte Case presentation: We report four new cases of melioidosis with a case that was complicated by a failure of several organs (case 2) which were observed on Mayotte Island. The last two affected cases came from Madagascar. Burkholderia pseudomallei was isolated from blood cultures, confirming the diagnosis. Prolonged treatment with ceftazidime or Ertapenem intravenously followed by cotrimoxazole alone or combined with oral doxycycline led to complete recovery. Conclusion: Melioidosis poses a potential threat in the Indian Ocean region in general and Mayotte and should be carefully monitored. The high incidences of diabetes and climatologic conditions such as rainy seasons with the occurrence of tropical cyclones make Mayotte a possible setting for melioidosis. It would therefore not be surprising to see a marked increase in the incidence rate of melioidosis in the years to come.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy-Based Tropical Cyclone Return Periods in Florida

This article introduces an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) approach for estimating the return period of tropical cyclone (TC) wind risk in Florida. As opposed to calculating return periods directly from maximum sustained wind speed, the ACE-based approach also describes the duration of the strong winds, giving an additional dimension to the assessment of TC wind risks. Because Florida is a peninsula, TCs can move across the state within six hours of landfall, causing an underestimation of the inland wind footprint if only the six-hour reanalysis track points are employed as an input data source. This study uses four different scenarios and an inland exponential decay function to interpolate the wind speed between the six-hour reanalysis track points to feed the ACE-based return period calculation based on a 121-year record from 1900 to 2020. South Florida has the shortest return period (five to ten years) of TCs with an ACE equivalent to one hour of hurricane intensity (≥ 64 kt; 1 kt ∼ 0.51 m s−1) caused by intense historical hurricane strikes, and Polk County in inland central Florida has an equal return period due to frequent and long-duration TC occurrences, acting as an intersection for landfalling TCs in the Florida peninsula.

Subseasonal prediction framework for tropical cyclone activity in the Solomon Islands region

AbstractRecently, we developed seasonal prediction schemes with improved skill to predict tropical cyclone (TC) activity up to 3 months in advance for the Solomon Islands (SI) region (5°–15°S, 155°–170°E) using sophisticated Bayesian regression techniques. However, TC prediction at subseasonal timescale (i.e., 1–4 weeks in advance) is not being researched for that region despite growing demands from decision makers at sectoral level. In this paper, we first assess the feasibility of developing subseasonal prediction frameworks for the SI region using a pool of predictors that are known to affect TC activity in the region. We then evaluate multiple predictor combinations to develop the most appropriate models using a statistical approach to forecast weekly TC activity up to 4 weeks in advance. Predictors used include indices of various natural climate variability modes, namely the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). These modes often have robust physical and statistical relationships with TC occurrences in the SI region and the broader southwest Pacific territory as shown by preceding studies. Additionally, we incorporate TC seasonality as a potential predictor given the persistence of TCs occurring more in certain months than others. Note that a model with seasonality predictor alone (hereafter called the “climatology” model) forms a baseline for comparisons. The hindcast verifications of the forecasts using leave‐one‐out cross‐validation procedure over the study period 1975–2019 indicate considerable improvements in prediction skill of our logistic regression models over climatology, even up to 4 weeks in advance. This study sets the foundation for introducing subseasonal prediction services, which is a national priority for improved decision making in sectors like agriculture and food security, water, health and disaster risk mitigation in the Solomon Islands.

The chronological account of the impact of tropical cyclones in Nicaragua between 1971 and 2020

This article provides a chronological account of the occurrence and impact of tropical cyclones in Nicaragua between 1971 and 2020. While previous research has indicated potential associations between climate change and the higher frequency of intense hurricanes, no known empirical research has focused on systematizing the chronology of the significant tropical cyclones to identify patterns of change in Nicaragua. Therefore, the principal objective of this project was to develop a general overview of the major tropical storms and hurricanes that occurred between 1971 and 2020, triggering disasters in Nicaragua. The empirical data was collected from various documents via qualitative and interpretative methodology. It included reviewing research articles, books, academic websites, databases, documents, credible reports of international organizations, and newspaper sources. This study identified that from 1971 to 2020, Nicaragua was affected by 22 tropical cyclones, which caused catastrophic damage to the territory. There are records of 17 Category 1–5 hurricanes, predominating Category 4, one with no class associated, and four tropical storms. Mitch, Felix, and Joan were the most damaging hurricanes that affected the country in the last five decades. They occurred in 1998, 2007, and 1988, respectively. Of the 22 tropical cyclones, 15 occurred during Cold ENSO, whereas only three in Warm ENSO, and four were neutral. Empirical results presented can be of value to future research on disaster risk reduction.

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Indices in a New High‐Resolution Climate Models Ensemble: Limitations and Way Forward

AbstractGenesis Potential Indices (GPIs) link the occurrence of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) to large‐scale environmental conditions favorable for TC development. In the last few decades, they have been routinely used as a way to overcome the limitations of climate models (GCM), whose resolution is too coarse to produce realistic TCs. Recently, the first GCM ensemble with high enough horizontal resolution to realistically reproduce TCs was made available. Here, we address the questions of whether GPIs are still relevant in the era of TC‐permitting climate model ensembles, and whether they have sufficient predictive skills. The predictive skills of GPIs are assessed against the TCs directly simulated in a climate model ensemble. We found that GPIs have poor skill in two key metrics: inter‐annual variability and multi‐decadal trends. We discuss possible ways to improve the understanding of the predictive skill of GPIs and therefore enhance their applicability in the era of TC‐permitting GCMs.

Understanding the landscape evolution of El Mogote barrier spit, Baja California Sur, Mexico, using OSL dating, satellite images and a multivariate analysis

Barrier spits are natural archives that provide information about coastal evolution and prevailing environmental conditions of the mainland. In this study, we analyze one of the largest barrier spits in Baja California Sur, Mexico, known as El Mogote bar, using a multi-method approach to unravel the coastal landscape evolution. We used (1) OSL dating to provide a robust geochronology and depositional rates of the emerged beach-dune ridges, (2) satellite imagery interpretation using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software to assess shoreline changes on Landsat images from 1986 to 2014, and (3) the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with climatic and geomorphologic parameters to elucidate the environmental conditions of the beach-dune ridges for the period comprised in the DSAS analysis. OSL results indicate that the emerged bars started to form ∼2 ka and were developed in three main building phases: (1) the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) with accretional rates of 1.13 m yr −1, (2) the ending of the LIA with 7.03 m yr −1 and (3) the post-LIA with 3.98 m yr −1. In this paper, we hypothesize two probable causes that led to the destruction of the former beach-dune ridges: (1) tsunami waves triggered by seismic events and (2) local sea level rise associated with local tectonic subsidence. Satellite images and DSAS analysis show that, in the barrier spit, accretion and erosion have been in dynamic equilibrium for at least three decades. PCA results indicate that dry and cold weather conditions, El Niño modes, and tropical cyclone occurrence with high accretional rates on the barrier spit are the main controls on the beach-dune ridges. We conclude that the multi-method approach used in this research is suitable to tease out the landscape evolution of a barrier spit from a climatic and geomorphological perspective, as we were able to identify that the accretional episodes of El Mogote bar are mainly related to rainfall during the coldest and driest environmental conditions that enhance sediment supply from continental areas to the coast.

Contrasting Responses of Atlantic and Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

AbstractThis research assesses the influences of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on global tropical cyclones (TCs) using two large ensembles of idealized global climate model simulations with opposite signs of AMV forcings superimposed (i.e., AMV+ and AMV–). We first detect TCs and then compare TC activity by basin in the two AMV experiments. We find contrasting responses of Atlantic and Pacific TC frequency to the AMV anomalies. Compared to AMV–, AMV+ significantly increases TC frequency in the North Atlantic, including those making landfalls. The increase is explained by warmer sea surface temperature, higher relative humidity, increased relative vorticity, and weaker vertical wind shear under AMV+. By contrast, AMV+ decreases TC occurrence over the western North Pacific and South Pacific, which is tied to stronger vertical wind shear and lower relative humidity. The opposite responses of TC activity to AMV+ are attributed to strengthened Walker Circulation between the Atlantic and Pacific.

Comprehensive Investigation on Spatiotemporal Variations of Tropical Cyclone Activities in the Western North Pacific, 1950–2019

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are the most severe natural disasters in the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP). While previous studies reported evident changes over certain regions or seasons between typical periods, there is a lack of a complete picture of the long-term variations in TC activities in the WNP. This study carried out a comprehensive investigation on the spatiotemporal variations in TC genesis locations and transit pathways in the WNP, based on the TC best-track datasets from the China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Typhoon Institute. The results showed that the TC genesis and occurrence frequencies showed drastic decreases and westward shifts in the WNP from 1950 to 2019. The greatest decrease in TC genesis occurred for Tropical Depressions (TDs: 10.8−17.1 m/s) and Typhoons (TYs: > 32.7 m/s). The number of Tropical Storms (TSs: 17.2−32.6 m/s) and the mean intensity (2 min maximum sustained wind speed) of TCs overall showed no evident change. The decadal average of TC genesis frequency increased by 63% in the near-coast seas (WNPO), but decreased by 46% near the central Pacific Ocean (WNCP), demonstrating a westward shift for TC genesis locations. The TC genesis and occurrence frequencies also showed significant declines in the southern Philippine Sea (SPS) and South China Sea (SCS), while they showed a lower reduction in the Eastern East China Sea (EECS), the northern ocean edge of TC genesis areas, resulting in an increase in the average latitude of TC genesis locations, a spurious northward shift. The La Niña and El Niño years showed contrasting effects on TC genesis frequency and landfall ratios. There were greater instances of TC genesis and greater landfall ratios during the La Niña mature phase, while there were fewer TC formations and lower landfall ratios during the short duration (SD) El Niño developing phase. The TC genesis locations showed a distinct northwestward shift during La Niña years compared to those during El Niño years.

Impact outlook of Asian Monsoon for Disaster Resilience

The Asian summer monsoon impacts the human lives and agrarian economies throughout Asia. These impacts are driven by monsoon anomalies which are manifested interms of the seasonal precipitation, surface temperatures, and the occurrences of floods,droughts, and tropical cyclones. A strong monsoon results in various positive outcomes like increased agricultural produce, economic growth,reduced commodityprices and national inflationary levels as well as increased ground water and restored reservoirs.While predicting the Asian summer monsoon has been prioritized by decision-makers across sectors in Asia, impact forecasting must gain greater significance as itis particularly important to tackle disaster risks. The paradigm shifts from ‘what monsoon will be to what monsoon will do’provides valuable insightsto better prepare Asian countries for managingimpending extreme events. The paper brings out how impact outlook for Asian monsoon can be effectively utilized.It shows howseasonal forecasts overlaid with risk and hazards maps andindicators on exposure and vulnerability can enhance understanding ofpotential risk scenariosfor various sectors, including agriculture, energy, health, water, and disaster management. Noting the limitations of accuracy and information available from seasonal forecasts, the information provided from impact outlook should be understood as preliminary assessments. The paper makes a case for seamless integration of seasonal, sub-seasonal, medium, and short terms forecasts withthe data on potential impact for close monitoring and taking targeted policy actions.

Influence of Synoptic‐Scale Waves on the Interdecadal Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific in the Early 2010s

AbstractIn this study, we investigated the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the early 2010s. At the western boundary of the WNP, the interdecadal change in TC activity exhibited a meridional tripole pattern. In contrast to the reduced activity over the northern South China Sea (SCS) and Taiwan, TC activity increased over the southern SCS and to the north of Shanghai after the early 2010s. Herein, we focused on the northern WNP. Over the last decade, frequent TC occurrences have affected East China, Korea and Japan. In this work, we examined the influence of synoptic‐scale waves (SSWs) on the interdecadal change in TC activity. During the 2011–2021 period, SSWs tended to propagate northward, resulting in more TC tracks affecting the northern WNP and surrounding countries. In contrast, the westward‐propagating SSWs before the early 2010s were more likely to favor westward‐moving TCs.