Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Research Articles

Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales

The possibility of anthropogenic ocean warming has led to a range of concerns, from impacts on fisheries and ocean acidification to rising sea level and changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. This study substantially strengthens the attribution of the recently observed global ocean warming to human activity.

The Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change and the Strength of Inner-Core Convection

Convective intensity proxies measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Precipitation Radar (PR), and Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) are used to assess the relationship between intense convection in the inner core and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. Using the cumulative distribution functions of 24-h intensity changes from the 1998–2008 best-track data for global TCs, five intensity change categories are defined: rapidly intensifying (RI), slowly intensifying, neutral, slowly weakening, and rapidly weakening. TRMM observations of global TCs during 1998–2008 are used to generate the distributions of convective properties in the storm’s inner-core region for different storm intensity change categories. To examine the hypothesis of hot towers near the eye as an indicator of RI, hot towers are defined by precipitation features with 20-dBZ radar echo height reaching 14.5 km. The differences in the convective parameters between rapidly intensifying TCs and slowly intensifying, neutral, slowly weakening, and rapidly weakening TCs are quantified using statistical analysis. It is found that statistically significant differences of three out of four convective intensity parameters in the inner core exist between RI and non-RI storms. Between RI and slowly intensifying TCs, a statistically significant difference exists for the minimum 11-μm IR brightness temperature TB11 in the inner core. This indicates that a relationship does exist between inner-core convective intensity and TC intensity change. The results in this study also suggest that the rate of intensification appears to be influenced by convective activity in the inner core and the ability to predict RI might be further improved by using convective parameters. With regard to different convective proxies, the relationships are different. The minimum TB11, upper-level maximum radar reflectivities, and maximum 20-dBZ radar echo height in the inner core are best associated with the rate of TC intensity change, while the minimum 85-GHz polarization corrected brightness temperature (PCT) shows some ambiguities in relation to intensity change. The minimum 37-GHz PCT shows no significant relationship with TC intensity change, probably because of the contamination of the ice scattering signal by emission from rain and liquid water in this channel. By examining the probability of RI for each convective parameter for which statistically significant differences at the 95% level were found of RI and non-RI cases, it is found that all three parameters provide additional information relative to climatology. The most skillful parameter is minimum TB11, and the second is maximum 20-dBZ height, followed by minimum 85-GHz PCT. However, the increases of RI probability from the larger sample mean by using these predictors are not very large. When using the existence of hot towers as a predictor, it is found that the probabilities of RI and slowly intensifying increase and those of slowly weakening and rapidly weakening decrease for samples with hot towers in the inner core. However, the increases for intensifying and decreases for weakening are not substantial, indicating that hot towers are neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for RI.

Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part II: Resilience in Shear

This paper examines the structure and evolution of a mature tropical cyclone in vertical wind shear (VWS) using airborne Doppler radar observations of Hurricane Guillermo (1997). In Part I, the modulation of eyewall convection via the rotation of vorticity asymmetries through the downshear-left quadrant was documented during rapid intensification. Here, the focus is on the relationship between VWS, vortex tilt, and associated asymmetry within the tropical cyclone core region during two separate observation periods. A method for estimating local VWS and vortex tilt from radar datasets is further developed, and the resulting vertical structure and its evolution are subjected to statistical confidence tests. Guillermo was a highly resilient vortex, evidenced by its small tilt magnitude relative to the horizontal scale of the vortex core. The deep-layer tilt was statistically significant, oriented on average ~60° left of shear. Large-scale vorticity and thermal asymmetries oriented along the tilt direction support a response of Guillermo to shear forcing that is consistent with balanced dynamics. The time-averaged vertical motion asymmetry within the eyewall exhibited maximum ascent values ~40° left of the deep-layer shear, or in this case, right of the deep-layer tilt. The observation-based analysis of Guillermo’s interaction with VWS confirms findings of recent theoretical and numerical studies, and serves as the basis for a more comprehensive investigation of VWS and tropical cyclone intensity change using a recently constructed multistorm database of Doppler radar analyses.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific: Downscaling from IPCC AR4 Experiments

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific: Downscaling from IPCC AR4 Experiments

Dynamically Derived Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes over the Western North Pacific

Abstract The study of the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is subject to uncertainty in historical datasets, especially in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, where conflicting results have been found with the TC datasets archived in different organizations. In this study the basinwide TC intensity in the WNP basin is derived dynamically with a TC intensity model, based on the track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) of Tokyo, and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of the China Meteorological Administration. The dynamically derived TC intensity is compared to the three datasets and used to investigate trends in TC intensity. The associated contributions of changes in SST, vertical wind shear, and prevailing tracks are also examined. The evolution of the basinwide TC intensity in the JTWC best-track dataset can be generally reproduced over the period 1975–2007. Dynamically derived data based on the JTWC, RSMC, and STI track datasets all show an increasing trend in the peak intensity and frequency of intense typhoons, mainly because of the combined effect of changes in SST and vertical wind shear. This study suggests that the increasing intensity trend in the JTWC dataset is real, but that it may be overestimated. In contrast, the TC intensity trends in the RSMC and STI intensity datasets are dynamically inconsistent. Numerical simulations also suggest that the frequency of intense typhoons is more sensitive to changes in SST and vertical wind shear than the peak and average intensities defined in previous studies.

The Impact of Future Climate Change on TC Intensity and Structure: A Downscaling Approach

A comprehensive analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in a warming climate is undertaken with high-resolution (6- and 2-km grid spacing) idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. With the goal of isolating the influence of thermodynamic aspects of climate change on maximum hurricane intensity, an idealized TC is placed within a quiescent, horizontally uniform tropical environment computed from averaged reanalysis data for the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The analyzed tropical environment is used for control simulations. Changes between the periods 1990–99 and 2090–99 are computed using output from 13 GCMs from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), for the A1B, A2, and B1 emissions scenarios. These changes are then added to the reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions used in the control simulations. Some processes known to impact TC intensity, such as environmental vertical wind shear and sea surface wake cooling, are not considered in this study. Future TC intensity increased for 75 of 78 future simulations using 6-km grid length, with a 9% (~8 hPa) average increase in central surface-pressure deficit. For the 2-km simulations, the average increase was 14% (~14 hPa). The depth of the TC secondary circulation increases in future simulations, consistent with an increase in the height of the freezing level and tropopause. Inner-core precipitation increases of 10%–30% are found for future simulations, with large sensitivity to the emission scenario. The increase in precipitation is consistent with a stronger potential vorticity tower, a warmer eye, and lower central pressure. Enhanced upper-tropospheric warming in the GCM environment is shown to be an important mitigating influence on TC intensity change but is also shown to exhibit large uncertainty in GCM projections.

Wind Speed Changes of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Preceding Landfall

AbstractLandfalling tropical cyclones have been extensively researched, especially their degradation upon coming ashore and the hazardous weather they create along coastlines and farther inland. Many of the factors that weaken storms over land could begin to act when they are still at sea, yet prelandfall intensity change remains poorly documented. This study examined the consistency of prelandfall changes in tropical cyclone intensity throughout the North Atlantic Ocean from 1950 to present. On average, cyclones intensified by 3 m s−1 less in their final 12 h before landfall than in the 12 h preceding those, on both mainland shores and in the Greater Antilles, while smaller islands showed no such change. Contributions of increasing storm age and poleward movement to this reduction were negligible. Two possible contributing factors to declining intensification before landfall were examined. The presence of a spring–neap tidal pattern of ~2 m s−1 in the prelandfall decline is consistent with tidal mixing influencing ocean temperature on the continental shelf. The tendency for the decline to be greater at night suggested the possible influence of solar heating on tropical cyclones near shore.

The Experimental HWRF System: A Study on the Influence of Horizontal Resolution on the Structure and Intensity Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using an Idealized Framework

AbstractForecasting intensity changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) is a complex and challenging multiscale problem. While cloud-resolving numerical models using a horizontal grid resolution of 1–3 km are starting to show some skill in predicting the intensity changes in individual cases, it is not clear at this time what may be a reasonable horizontal resolution for forecasting TC intensity changes on a day-to-day-basis. The Experimental Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting System (HWRFX) was used within an idealized framework to gain a fundamental understanding of the influence of horizontal grid resolution on the dynamics of TC vortex intensification in three dimensions. HWFRX is a version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model specifically adopted and developed jointly at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) for studying the intensity change problem at a model grid resolution of about 3 km. Based on a series of numerical experiments at the current operating resolution of about 9 km and at a finer resolution of about 3 km, it was found that improved resolution had very little impact on the initial spinup of the vortex. An initial axisymmetric vortex with a maximum wind speed of 20 m s−1 rapidly intensified to 50 m s−1 within about 24 h in either case. During the spinup process, buoyancy appears to have had a pivotal influence on the formation of the warm core and the subsequent rapid intensification of the modeled vortex. The high-resolution simulation at 3 km produced updrafts as large as 48 m s−1. However, these extreme events were rare, and this study indicated that these events may not contribute significantly to rapid deepening. Additionally, although the structure of the buoyant plumes may differ at 9- and 3-km resolution, interestingly, the axisymmetric structure of the simulated TCs exhibited major similarities. Specifically, the similarities included a deep inflow layer extending up to about 2 km in height with a tangentially averaged maximum inflow velocity of about 12–15 m s−1, vertical updrafts with an average velocity of about 2 m s−1, and a very strong outflow produced at both resolutions for a mature storm. It was also found in either case that the spinup of the primary circulation occurred not only due to the weak inflow above the boundary layer but also due to the convergence of vorticity within the boundary layer. Nevertheless, the mature phase of the storm’s evolution exhibited significantly different patterns of behavior at 9 and 3 km. While the minimum pressure at the end of 96 h was 934 hPa for the 9-km simulation, it was about 910 hPa for the 3-km run. The maximum tangential wind at that time showed a difference of about 10 m s−1. Several sensitivity experiments related to the initial vortex intensity, initial radius of the maximum wind, and physics were performed. Based on ensembles of simulations, it appears that radial advection of the tangential wind and, consequently, radial flux of vorticity become important forcing terms in the momentum budget of the mature storm. Stronger convergence in the boundary layer leads to a larger transport of moisture fluxes and, subsequently, a stronger storm at higher resolution.

Association Rule Data Mining Applications for Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes

Abstract This study applies a data mining technique called association rule mining to the analysis of intensity changes of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). The “best track” data from the National Hurricane Center and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme databases were stratified into tropical depressions, tropical storms, and category 1–5 hurricanes based on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. After stratification, the seven resulting groups of TCs plus two additional aggregation groups were further separated into intensifying, weakening, and stable TCs. The analysis of the stratified data for preprocessing revealed that faster northward storm motion (the meridional component of storm motion) favors tropical storm intensification but does not favor the intensification of hurricanes. Intensifying tropical storms are more strongly associated with a higher convergence in the upper atmosphere (200-hPa relative eddy momentum flux convergence) than weakening tropical storms, while intensifying hurricanes are more strongly associated with lower convergence values. The mined association rules showed that cofactors usually display higher-intensity prediction power in the stratified TC groups. The data mining results also identified a predictor set with fewer factors but improved probabilities of rapid intensification. This study found that the data mining technique not only sheds light on the roles of multiple-associated physical processes in tropical cyclone development—especially in rapid intensification processes—but also will help improve TC intensity forecasting. This paper provides an outline on how to use this data mining technique and how to overcome low occurrences of mined conditions in order to improve TC intensity forecasting capabilities.

Mechanism of Concentric Eyewall Replacement Cycles and Associated Intensity Change*

Abstract To understand the mechanisms responsible for the secondary eyewall replacement cycles and associated intensity changes in intense tropical cyclones (TCs), two numerical experiments are conducted in this study with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In the experiments, identical initial conditions and model parameters are utilized except that the concentration of ice particles is enhanced in the sensitivity run. With enhanced ice concentrations, it is found that the secondary eyewall forms at an increased radius, the time required for eyewall replacement is extended, and the intensity fluctuation is relatively large. The enhanced concentrations of ice particles at the upper tropospheric outflow layer produces a noticeable subsidence region (moat) surrounding the primary eyewall. The presence of the moat forces the secondary eyewall to form at a relatively large radius. The axisymmetric equivalent potential temperature budget analysis reveals that the demise of the inner eyewall is primarily due to the interception of the boundary layer inflow supply of entropy by the outer convective ring, whereas the advection of low entropy air from the middle levels to the boundary inflow layers in the moat is not essential. The interception process becomes inefficient when the secondary eyewall is at a large radius; hence, the corresponding eyewall replacement is slow. After the demise of the inner eyewall, the outer eyewall has to maintain a warm core not only in the previous eye, but also in the moat. The presence of low equivalent potential temperature air in the moat results in the significant weakening of storm intensity. The results found here suggest that monitoring the features of the moat and the outer eyewall region can provide a clue for the prediction of TC intensity change associated with eyewall replacement.

Impact of Secondary Eyewall Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change*

Abstract The primary goal of this study is to explore the factors that might influence the intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with secondary eyewall replacement. Concentric eyewall structures in TCs with and without large intensity weakening are compared using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 2A12 and 2A25 data. It is found that the secondary eyewalls with a stratiform-type heating profile show a marked weakening, while those TCs with a convective-type heating weaken insignificantly or even intensify. This observed feature is supported by a set of sensitivity numerical experiments performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. With more active convection, the latent heat released in the outer eyewall and moat region can better sustain storm intensity. The prevailing stratiform precipitation results in low equivalent potential temperature air in the moat and reduces the entropy of the boundary layer inflow to the inner eyewall through persistent downdrafts, leading to a large intensity fluctuation. Comparison of observations and numerical model results reveals that the model tends to overproduce convective precipitation in the outer eyewall and the moat. It is possible that the model underestimates the storm intensity changes associated with eyewall replacement events.

Influence of Rain-Rate Initialization, Cloud Microphysics, and Cloud Torques on Hurricane Intensity

Abstract This study examines the impact of rain-rate initialization (RINIT), microphysical modifications, and cloud torques (in the context of angular momentum) on hurricane intensity forecasts using a mesoscale model [the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF)] at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2.7 km. The numerical simulations are performed in a triple-nested manner (25, 8.3, and 2.7 km) for Hurricane Dennis of 2005. Unless mentioned otherwise, all the results discussed are from the innermost grid with finest resolution (2.7 km). It is found that the model results obtained from the RINIT technique demonstrated robust improvement in hurricane structure, track, and intensity forecasts compared to the control experiment (CTRL; i.e., without RINIT). Thereafter, using RINIT initial conditions datasets three sensitive experiments are designed by modifying specific ice microphysical parameters (i.e., temperature-independent snow intercept parameter, doubling number of concentrations of ice, and ice crystal diameter) within the explicit parameterization scheme [i.e., the WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6)]. It is shown that the experiment with enhanced ice mass concentration and temperature-independent snow intercept parameter produces the strongest and weakest storms, respectively. The results suggest that the distributions of hydrometeors are also impacted by the limited changes introduced in the microphysical scheme (e.g., the quantitative amount of snow drastically reduced to 0.1–0.2 g kg−1 when the intercept parameter of snow is made independent of temperature). It is noted that the model holds ice at a warmer temperature for a longer time with a temperature-independent intercept parameter. These variations in hydrometeor distribution in the eyewall region of the storm affect diabatic heating and vertical velocity structure and modulated the storm intensity. However, irrespective of the microphysical changes the quantitative amount of graupel hydrometeors remained nearly unaffected. Finally, the indirect effect of microphysical modifications on storm intensity through angular momentum and cloud torques is examined. A formulation to predict the short-term changes in the storm intensity using a parcel segment angular momentum budget method is developed. These results serve to elucidate the indirect impact of microphysical modifications on tropical cyclone intensity changes through modulation in cloud torque magnitude.

The World Wide Lightning Location Network and Convective Activity in Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Lightning flash density in tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated to identify whether lightning flashes provide information on TC intensity and/or intensity change, to provide further insight into TC asymmetric convective structure induced by vertical shear and storm motion, and to assess how well the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) is suited for the observation of TCs. The 24 Atlantic basin TCs that came within 400 km of the United States from 2004 to 2007 are studied. The National Lightning Detection Network is used to analyze flash density as a function of peak current and to evaluate the WWLLN. Flash density is shown to be smaller for hurricanes than for tropical depressions and storms, with this reduction being gradually more pronounced as flash peak current increases. The results suggest that flash density in the inner core is a parameter with potential for distinguishing intensifying versus nonintensifying TCs, particularly in the weaker storm stages where flash densities are largest. Vertical wind shear produces a strong downshear left (right) asymmetry in the inner core (outer rainbands), whereas motion asymmetries are less clear. The unprecedented azimuthal resolution used in this study suggests that as shear strengthens, the azimuthal region of convection in the inner core is sharpened from a width of ∼130° to a width of ∼60°. The radial distribution of flash density is shown to exhibit a relatively narrow region of little activity (between 60 and 120 km from the eye), with increased activity in both regions closer to, and more distant from, the center (i.e., the eyewall and outer rainbands, respectively). Finally, it is shown that the WWLLN captures the convective activity in Atlantic basin TCs remarkably well, despite its low detection efficiency.

Interannual Changes of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Western North Pacific

The individual contributions of changes in sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to the interannual TC intensity change in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin are examined based on the selected 7 warm years and 7 cold years during the period 1970–2007. The selected warm and cold years are defined by the Nino-3.4 SST anomalies index, and correspond to El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. The intensity model used in this study can simulate the spatial distribution and differences of TC intensity when the model is integrated along the observed TC tracks in the warm and cold years. It is found that the change of TC tracks plays a dominant role in the observed TC intensity difference between warm and cold years. During the warm years, TC formation is enhanced in the southeast quadrant, and more TCs take a northwestward track during the warm years than during the cold years because of the interannual change in the large-scale steering flows. As a result, TCs have a longer time for intensification and develop into intense TCs during the warm years when compared to the cold years.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change before U.S. Gulf Coast Landfall

Abstract Tropical cyclone intensity change remains a forecasting challenge with important implications for such vulnerable areas as the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico. Analysis of 1979–2008 Gulf tropical cyclones during their final two days before U.S. landfall identifies patterns of behavior that are of interest to operational forecasters and researchers. Tropical storms and depressions strengthened on average by about 7 kt for every 12 h over the Gulf, except for little change during their final 12 h before landfall. Hurricanes underwent a different systematic evolution. In the net, category 1–2 hurricanes strengthened, while category 3–5 hurricanes weakened such that tropical cyclones approach the threshold of major hurricane status by U.S. landfall. This behavior can be partially explained by consideration of the maximum potential intensity modified by the environmental vertical wind shear and hurricane-induced sea surface temperature reduction near the storm center associated with relatively low oceanic heat content levels. Linear least squares regression equations based on initial intensity and time to landfall explain at least half the variance of the hurricane intensity change. Applied retrospectively, these simple equations yield relatively small forecast errors and biases for hurricanes. Characteristics of most of the significant outliers are explained and found to be identifiable a priori for hurricanes, suggesting that forecasters can adjust their forecast procedures accordingly.

Quantifying Environmental Control on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Abstract Composite analysis is used to examine environmental and climatology and persistence characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing different intensity changes in the western North Pacific (WPAC) and North Atlantic (ATL) ocean basins. Using the cumulative distribution functions of 24-h intensity changes from the 2003–08 best-track data, four intensity change bins are defined: rapidly intensifying (RI), intensifying, neutral, and weakening. The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System daily 0000 and 1200 UTC global analysis and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager data are then used as proxies for the real atmosphere, and composites of various environmental fields believed relevant to TC intensity change are made in the vicinity of the TCs. These composites give the average characteristics near the TC, prior to undergoing a given intensity change episode. For the environmental variables, statistically significant differences are examined between RI storms and the other groups. While some environmental differences were found between RI and weakening/neutral TCs in both basins, an interesting result from this study is that the environment of RI TCs and intensifying TCs is quite similar. This indicates that the rate of intensification is only weakly dependent on the environmental conditions, on average, provided the environment is favorable. Notable exceptions were that in the WPAC, RI events occurred in environments with significantly larger conditional instability than intensifying events. In the ATL, RI events occurred in environments with weaker deep-layer shear than intensifying events. An important finding of this work is that SSTs are similar between intensifying and rapidly intensifying TCs, indicating that the rate of intensification is not critically dependent on SST. The TCs in both basins were more intense prior to undergoing an RI episode than an intensifying or neutral episode. In the WPAC, the three groups had similar translational speeds and headings, and average initial position. In the ATL, RI storms were located farther south than intensifying and neutral storms, and had a larger translational speed and a more westward component to the heading.

Impacts of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change and Ocean Prediction in the Australian Region

Abstract This study investigates the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on predicted tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change and the ocean response in the Australian region. The coupled model comprises the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Tropical Cyclone Limited-Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS) and a regional version of the BLUElink ocean forecasting system. A series of case study forecasts are presented and the differences between coupled and uncoupled forecasts, operational forecasts, and posterior objective analyses are compared. A coupled model ensemble is also developed that uses different first-order approximations of the effects of surface waves on surface stress in an inertial coupling method. In each of the cases, the use of reanalyzed sea surface temperatures significantly improves the prediction of TC intensity change in the intensification phase. The results show that dynamic air–sea coupling has a modest impact on intensity in cases where SST cooling is significant and is likely to be important for predicting the rate of TC intensification, peak intensity, and deintensification. Results also show that there is a definite coupled signal and suggest inherent biases in the atmospheric model that could potentially be removed. With different parameterizations of surface wave effects, results show modest sensitivity in TC intensity of up to 10 hPa in minimum surface pressure; however, in some cases there was significant sensitivity in the predicted ocean response. The results also highlight the relative increased complexity of tropical cyclone prediction in the Australian region compared to other regions. In cases where the forecast TC track was reasonably skillful, there were improvements in the predicted ocean response with respect to observations compared to an ocean reanalysis.

An Examination of the Pressure–Wind Relationship for Intense Tropical Cyclones

Abstract In this study, the dynamical constraints underlining the pressure–wind relationship (PWR) for intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are examined with the particular focus on the physical connections between the maximum surface wind (VMAX) and the minimum sea level pressure (PMIN). Use of the Rankine vortex demonstrates that the frictional forcing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) could explain a sizeable portion of the linear contributions of VMAX to pressure drops. This contribution becomes increasingly important for intense TCs with small eye sizes, in which the radial inflows in the PBL could no longer be neglected. Furthermore, the inclusion of the tangential wind tendency can make an additional contribution to the pressure drops when coupled with the surface friction. An examination of the double-eyewall configuration reveals that the formation of an outer eyewall or well-organized spiral rainbands complicates the PWR. An analysis of a cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Wilma (2005) shows that the outer eyewall could result in the continuous deepening of PMIN even with a constant VMAX. The results presented here suggest that (i) the TC size should be coupled with VMAX rather than being treated as an independent predictor as in the current PWRs, (ii) the TC intensity change should be at least coupled linearly with the radius of VMAX, and (iii) the radial wind in the PBL is of equal importance to the linear contribution of VMAX and its impact should be included in the PWR.

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Size and Intensity to the Radial Distribution of Surface Entropy Flux

Abstract The surface energy (entropy) flux is critical to the development and maintenance of a tropical cyclone (TC). However, it is unclear how sensitive the inner-core size and intensity of a TC could be to the radial distribution of the surface entropy flux under the TC. Such a potential sensitivity is examined in this study using the multiply nested, fully compressible, nonhydrostatic TC model TCM4. By artificially eliminating the surface entropy fluxes in different radial extent in different experiments, the effect of the surface entropy flux in the different radial ranges on the inner-core size and intensity of a simulated TC is evaluated. Consistent with recent findings from axisymmetric models, the entropy flux in the eye region of a TC is found to contribute little to the storm intensity, but it plays a role in reducing the radius of maximum wind (RMW). Although surface entropy fluxes under the eyewall contribute greatly to the storm intensity, those outside the eyewall up to a radius of about 2–2.5 times the RMW are also important. Farther outward, the surface entropy fluxes are found to be crucial to the growth of the storm inner-core size but could reduce the storm intensity. The surface entropy flux outside the inner core plays a critical role in maintaining high convective available potential energy (CAPE) outside the eyewall and thus active spiral rainbands. The latent heat release in these rainbands is responsible for the increase in the inner-core size of the simulated TC. A positive feedback is identified to explain changes in the inner-core size of the simulated storms in different experiments. Implications of the results for both observations and numerical prediction of TC structure and intensity changes are briefly discussed.

Oceanic Heat Content Variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

Abstract Recent evidence supports the premise that the subsurface ocean structure plays an important role in modulating air–sea fluxes during hurricane passage, which in turn, affects intensity change. Given the generally sparse in situ data, it has been difficult to provide region-to-basin-wide estimates of isotherm depths and upper-ocean heat content (OHC). In this broader context, satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) from multiple platforms carrying radar altimeters are blended, objectively analyzed, and combined with a hurricane-season climatology to estimate isotherm depths and OHC within the context of a reduced gravity model at 0.25° spatial intervals in the eastern Pacific Ocean where tropical cyclone intensity change occurs. Measurements from the Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate in 2001, long-term tropical ocean atmosphere mooring network, and volunteer observing ship deploying expendable bathythermograph (XBT) profilers are used to carefully evaluate satellite-based measurements of upper-ocean variability. Regression statistics reveal small biases with slopes of 0.8–0.9 between the subsurface measurements compared with isotherm depths (20° and 26°C), and OHC fields derived from objectively analyzed SSHA field. Root-mean-square differences in OHC range between 10 and 15 kJ cm−2 or roughly 10%–15% of the mean signals. Similar values are found for isotherm depth differences between in situ and inferred satellite-derived values. Blended daily values are used in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) forecasts as are OHC estimates for the Atlantic Ocean basin. An equivalent OHC variable is introduced that incorporates the strength of the thermocline at the base of the oceanic mixed layer using a climatological stratification parameter /No, which seems better correlated to hurricane intensity change than just anomalies as observed in Hurricane Juliette in 2001.