Tropical Climate Variability Research Articles

Climate variability links to changes in Rioja wine (Spain).

This study investigates the impact of regional climate changes on the production, quality, chemical composition, and phenological patterns of Rioja wine in Spain from 1993 to 2017. Data from DOCa Rioja and the Marqués de Riscal winery were analyzed in conjunction with meteorological and remote sensing data to provide a comprehensive evaluation. The findings reveal an increase in alcohol content and pH, coupled with a decrease in acidity, correlative to phenological shifts such as earlier grape ripening and reduced leaf canopy. Additionally, a thorough examination of monthly climate anomalies highlights the significance of May in determining harvest outcomes, influenced by the Eastern Atlantic (EA) mode of low-frequency variability. The potential connection between springtime weather conditions and tropical climate variability is also explored.

Separate the Role of Southern and Northern Extra‐Tropical Pacific in Tropical Pacific Climate Variability

AbstractObservational and modeling studies have elucidated the influential role played by the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical‐extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low‐frequency (sub‐decadal to decadal) variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific region (∼70%) in the absence of SEP. Conversely, the absence of NEP yields no significant impact on tropical interannual variability but markedly diminishes low‐frequency variability in the central tropical Pacific region (∼70%). LIM and statistic diagnostics on CMIP6 models show the low‐frequency to total variability ratio in the tropical Pacific depending on their NEP and SEP representation. Models with more (less) low‐frequency power tend to show stronger NEP (SEP) dynamics.

Synthetic and practical reconstructions of SST and seawater pH using the novel multiproxy SMITE method.

Geochemical proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater pH (pHsw) in scleractinian coral skeletons are valuable tools for reconstructing tropical climate variability. However, most coral skeletal SST and pHsw proxies are univariate methods that are limited in their capacity to circumvent non-climate-related variability. Here we present a novel multivariate method for reconstructing SST and pHsw from the geochemistry of coral skeletons. Our Scleractinian Multivariate Isotope and Trace Element (SMITE) method optimizes reconstruction skill by leveraging the covariance across an array of coral elemental and isotopic data with SST and pHsw. First, using a synthetic proxy experiment, we find that SMITE SST reconstruction statistics (correlation, accuracy, and precision) are insensitive to noise and variable calibration period lengths relative to Sr/Ca. While SMITE pHsw reconstruction statistics remain relative to δ11B throughout the same synthetic experiment, the magnitude of the long-term trend in pHsw is progressively lost under conditions of moderate-to-high analytical uncertainty. Next, we apply the SMITE method to an array of seven coral-based geochemical variables (B/Ca, δ11B, Li/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, U/Ca & Li/Mg) measured from two Bermudan Porites astreoides corals. Despite a <3.5 year calibration period, SMITE SST and pHsw estimates exhibit significantly better accuracy, precision, and correlation with their respective climate targets than the best single- and dual-proxy estimators. Furthermore, SMITE model parameters are highly reproducible between the two coral cores, indicating great potential for fossil applications (when preservation is high). The results shown here indicate that the SMITE method can outperform the most common coral-based SST and pHsw reconstructions methods to date, particularly in datasets with a large variety of geochemical variables. We therefore provide a list of recommendations and procedures for users to begin implementing the SMITE method as well as an open-source software package to facilitate dissemination of the SMITE method.

Late Quaternary hydroclimate variability in Madagascar and its connection to atmospheric circulation patterns

Large uncertainties still exist about the long-term mechanisms influencing the hydroclimate variability of southeast Africa where proxy data and model simulations indicate rainfall dipoles between subtropical and tropical areas. The topography of Madagascar, located off the southeastern coast of Africa, modulates these dipoles while its climate is influenced by the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Subtropical High as well as the sea surface temperature (SST) of SW Indian Ocean. The island can thus be considered a key location for the understanding of the tropical SE African climatic variability and the interplay between atmospheric patterns. However, the scarcity of continuous records from Madagascar has made the evolution of regional late Quaternary climate and its driving mechanisms difficult to assess. Here, we present a 26-kyr record of the deuterium/hydrogen isotope ratio (δD) of biomarkers (n-alkanes) from the central eastern part of the island at Antananarivo at around 1250 m a.s.l. Preliminary summary pollen data are also presented as a comparison. The δD profiles of aquatic plant and terrestrial plant-derived n-alkanes generally exhibit similar trends implying that they all record changes in the isotope composition of source water, namely meteoric water that recharges soil and lake waters. In this tropical region, the δD variability of precipitation is mainly influenced by the amount effect reflecting the intensity of precipitation associated with the monsoon. We observe: (i) stable and wet conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum, (ii) drier conditions from 18.5 to 15 ka (ka before present) during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (iii) high humidity after 15 ka culminating at the Younger Dryas (YD), (iv) drier conditions from 11.7 ka to 8.2 ka, (v) a return to humid climate until 2.8 ka, and (vi) an arid phase followed by increased wetness after 0.9 ka, although the record is likely influenced by human-induced vegetation changes the last 1.2 ka. This climate signal is similar to other records from the Mozambique Channel but opposite to records from the East African mainland and the subtropical southern Africa, especially between 20 and 25°S. Although there is a good correspondence of our record with insolation- driven migrations of ITCZ during the LGM and the early Holocene, the dipoles are largely consistent with the modern rainfall anomaly and are best explained by the interlinked effects of the SST changes and the variability of the Mozambique Channel Trough.

The role of the tropical Atlantic in tropical Pacific climate variability

Interactions between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can affect tropical Pacific variability and its global impacts at both interannual and decadal timescales. Thus, a deepened understanding of the coupled Atlantic-Pacific interactions is needed. While possible dynamical mechanisms by which the Atlantic can influence the Pacific have been identified, the effectiveness of those mechanisms is difficult to establish using climate model simulations where Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed and Pacific feedbacks cannot be realistically included. As an alternative approach, here we use a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) trained on observations and capable of correctly reproducing the observed statistics, to assess the relative role of the Atlantic-to-Pacific and Pacific-to-Atlantic influences on tropical Pacific variability. Our results indicate that Atlantic internal variability can enhance interannual SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and decadal SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, while Pacific influences on the Atlantic significantly damp tropical Pacific decadal variability. This methodological framework could also be used to assess climate model fidelity in representing tropical basin interactions, helping to reconcile existing differences among models’ results.

Technical note: An improved methodology for calculating the Southern Annular Mode index to aid consistency between climate studies

Abstract. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) strongly influences climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. The SAM index describes the phase and magnitude of the SAM and can be calculated by measuring the difference in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) between middle and high latitudes. This study investigates the effects of calculation methods and data resolution on the SAM index, and subsequent interpretations of SAM impacts and trends. We show that the normalisation step that is traditionally used in calculating the SAM index leads to substantial differences in the magnitude of the SAM index calculated at different temporal resolutions. Additionally, the equal weighting that the normalisation approach gives to MSLP variability at the middle and high southern latitudes artificially alters temperature and precipitation correlations and the interpretation of climate change trends in the SAM. These issues can be overcome by instead using a natural SAM index based on MSLP anomalies, resulting in consistent scaling and variability in the SAM index calculated at daily, monthly and annual data resolutions. The natural SAM index has improved representation of SAM impacts in the high southern latitudes, including the asymmetric (zonal wave-3) component of MSLP variability, whereas the increased weighting given to mid-latitude MSLP variability in the normalised SAM index incorporates a stronger component of tropical climate variability that is not directly associated with SAM variability. We conclude that an improved approach of calculating the SAM index from MSLP anomalies without normalisation would aid consistency across climate studies and avoid potential ambiguity in the SAM index, including SAM index reconstructions from palaeoclimate data, and thus enable more consistent interpretations of SAM trends and impacts.

Linearity of the Climate Response to Increasingly Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in a Large Ensemble Framework

Abstract Large explosive volcanic eruptions cause short-term climatic impacts on both regional and global scales. Their impact on tropical climate variability, in particular El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is still uncertain, as is their combined and separate effect on tropical and global precipitation. Here, we investigate the relationship between large-scale temperature and precipitation and tropical volcanic eruption strength, using 100-member MPI-ESM ensembles for idealized equatorial symmetric Northern Hemisphere summer eruptions of different sulfur emission strengths. Our results show that for idealized tropical eruptions, global and hemispheric mean near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are negative and linearly scalable for sulfur emissions between 10 and 40 Tg S. We identify 20 Tg S emission as a threshold where the global ensemble-mean near-surface temperature and precipitation signals exceed the range of internal variability, even though some ensemble members emerge from variability for lower eruption strengths. Seasonal and ensemble mean patterns of near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are highly correlated across eruption strengths, in particular for larger emission strengths in the tropics, and strongly modulated by ENSO. There is a tendency to shift toward a warm ENSO phase for the first postvolcanic year as the emission strength increases. Volcanic cooling emerges on a hemisphere-wide scale, while the precipitation response is more localized, and emergence is mainly confined to the tropics and subtropics. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to investigate at which strength the climate responses of volcanic forcing can be distinguished from the internal climate variability and whether the responses will linearly increase as the emission strengths become stronger. We ran 100-member MPI-ESM ensembles of idealized equatorial volcanic eruptions of different sulfur emission strengths and find that seasonal and ensemble mean patterns of near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are distinguishable and linearly scalable for sulfur emissions from 10 to 40 Tg S if their forcing patterns are similar. The identification of volcanic fingerprints is important for seasonal to decadal forecasts in the case of potential future eruptions and could help to prepare society for the regional climatic consequences of such an event.

Impact of Deforestation in the Maritime Continent on the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract Deforestation is a major issue affecting both regional and global hydroclimates. This study investigated the effect of deforestation in the Maritime Continent (MC) on tropical intraseasonal climate variability. Using a global climate model with credible Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations, we examined the effect of deforestation over the MC region by replacing the forest canopy with grassland. The results revealed that under constant orographic and land–sea contrast forcing, the modification of the canopy over the MC altered the characteristics of the MJO. We noted the amplification of the MJO and increases in wet–dry fluctuation and the zonal extent. We analyzed more than 100 MJO cases by performing K-means clustering and determined that the continuous propagation of the MJO over the MC increased from 35% in the control experiment to 61% in the deforestation experiment. This phenomenon of less blocked MJO over the MC in the deforestation run was associated with more substantial precipitation, increased soil moisture, and a suppressed diurnal cycle in land convection. Furthermore, when the MJO convection was over the Indian Ocean (IO), we observed the enhancement of low-level moisture over the MC region in the deforestation experiment. Grassland surface forcing provides a thermodynamic source for triggering instability in the atmosphere, resulting in low-level moisture convergence. The MJO exhibited a stronger energy recharge–discharge cycle in the deforestation experiment than in the control experiment, and this difference between the experiments enlarged as the MJO progressed from the IO to MC.

Editorial preface to special issue: Neogene-Quaternary changes of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool encompassing oceanic, hydrologic and carbon cycles, and their implications for future change

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is the primary supplier of heat and moisture to the global atmosphere, and exerts a significant impact on tropical and worldwide climate variability. This special issue expands our understanding of the paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic evolution of the IPWP since Neogene times with implications for understanding future change. It contains fifteen research articles addressing two primary themes: (1) Ocean-atmosphere coupled processes via the ocean water-column, sea surface, atmospheric evaporation/precipitation; and (2) Sediment source-to-sink and biogeochemical carbon-cycles, and their interactions with oceanographic, hydrological, tectonic and other factors. These contributions improve our understanding of thermocline temperature, salinity, oxygenation, hydrography, carbon cycle, biological productivity, and sedimentary response in the IPWP across Neogene and Quaternary time scales, as well as aiding in the forecast of future climate responses in the context of current global warming. The special issue will capture the attention of geologists, climatologists, and anybody else interested in global climate change.

Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the ‘7·20’ extraordinary typhoon‐rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China

AbstractOn 20 July, 2021, an extraordinary rainstorm occurred in Zhengzhou in Central‐North China, which caused hundreds of deaths and serious property damages, and affected 14 million people. The compound anomalous atmospheric circulations were found to be responsible for the occurrence of the extraordinary rainstorm in Zhengzhou, but the influence of large‐scale sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and the contribution of climate change received less attention. This study conducts an attribution analysis based on atmospheric reanalysis and sea surface temperature (SST) observation data combined with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulation data. The results show that the return period for the extraordinary rainstorm was 250 years, which was caused by the interaction between the abnormally northerly shift of Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) that was associated with the negative SSTA over the tropical central‐eastern Pacific (i.e., a moderate La Niña condition) and Typhoon In‐fa and Typhoon Cempaka. A persistent convergence was formed over Zhengzhou by transporting a large amount of water vapour to hinterland. The lagged response of La Niña affected WNPSH and the rainband in China. The attribution analysis shows that climate change due to anthropogenic forcings such as greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of such a rainstorm event by 12% compared to the conditions under the natural forcings. Under the combined effects of anthropogenic forcings and La Niña, the risk of occurrence increased 47% compared to the effect of natural forcings only on similar precipitation events. This study suggests a synergistic effect of climate change and large‐scale tropical climate variability on compound extremes.

Enhanced Asian hydroclimate instability during early MIS 6.5

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and regional rainfall responses to external and internal forcings remain actively debated, especially at significant climate transitions. Here we present decadally-resolved stalagmite stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) and trace element records from central China to reconstruct Asian hydroclimate variability across the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7/6 transition. The results demonstrate that the maximum level of effective precipitation (or precipitation/evaporation, P/E), derived from δ13C and element records, is practically similar between MIS 7.0 and early MIS 6.5, punctuated by a series of centennial-scale moisture-deficit events, in contrast to precessional-scale ASM changes (i.e., δ18O). At millennial scale, the ASM decline is positively correlated to P/E changes, with an exponential relationship between them. It reveals that Earth's boundary conditions could differently modulate ASM and P/E changes at orbital scale, while internal forcings can generate synchronous responses. Moreover, the ASM intensity and P/E conditions exhibit enhanced instability into MIS 6, about 1.5 times in amplitude of MIS 7. These millennial-scale hydroclimate variations are in line with a rise of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, an El Niño/La Niña transition, the increased seasonality and high-frequency tropical climate variability. Hence, low-latitude hydrological conditions could be susceptible to subtle perturbations in the climate system, providing a precondition for the arrival of MIS 6.

An Amundsen Sea source of decadal temperature changes on the Antarctic continental shelf

AbstractMass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is dominated by basal melting–induced warm ocean water. Ice-sheet mass loss and thinning of buttressing ice shelves occur primarily in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. Here, we show that in a global ocean simulation using the 0.25° Nucleus for European Modeling of Ocean (NEMO) model driven by the JRA55 reanalysis from 1982 to 2017, the Amundsen sector of the Antarctic continental shelf acts as a gateway, regulating the on-shelf access of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) from the deep ocean and its westward transfer to other sectors up to ca. 90° E, particularly the Ross Sea. As a result, anomalies in Antarctic-shelf-averaged temperature mainly originate in the Amundsen sector. These changes are primarily governed by shifts in the Amundsen Sea Low associated with tropical climate variability, modulating the on-shelf transport of CDW via wind-driven perturbations to ocean currents. The ensuing temperature anomalies progress westward from the Amundsen Sea via three distinct routes: a slow, convoluted westward pathway on the shelf via the Antarctic Coastal Current; a faster westward pathway along the shelf break via the Antarctic Slope Current and then onto the shelf along topographic troughs; and a third, eastward route toward the Bellingshausen sector, whereby temperature anomalies are transported into a region of local wind-generated changes farther north. These results emphasize the importance of the Amundsen sector for climate variability over the Antarctic shelves.

Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Variability Suppressed by Submesoscale Eddies

Abstract Tropical Pacific quasi-decadal (TPQD) climate variability is characterized by quasi-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the central Pacific (CP). This low-frequency climate variability is suggested to influence extreme regional weather and substantially impact global climate patterns and associated socioeconomics through teleconnections. Previous studies mostly attributed the TPQD climate variability to basin-scale air–sea coupling processes. However, due to the coarse resolution of the majority of the observations and climate models, the role of subbasin-scale processes in modulating the TPQD climate variability is still unclear. Using a long-term high-resolution global climate model, we find that energetic small-scale motions with horizontal scales from tens to hundreds of kilometers (loosely referred to as equatorial submesoscale eddies) act as an important damping effect to retard the TPQD variability. During the positive TPQD events, compound increasing precipitation and warming SST in the equatorial Pacific intensifies the upper ocean stratification and weakens the temperature fronts along the Pacific cold tongue. This suppresses submesoscale eddy growth as well as their associated upward vertical heat transport by inhibiting baroclinic instability (BCI) and frontogenesis; conversely, during the negative TPQD events, the opposite is true. Using a series of coupled global climate models that participated in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with different oceanic resolutions, we show that the amplitude of the TPQD variability becomes smaller as the oceanic resolution becomes finer, providing evidence for the impacts of submesoscale eddies on damping the TPQD variability. Our study suggests that explicitly simulating equatorial submesoscale eddies is necessary for gaining a more robust understanding of low-frequency tropical climate variability. Significance Statement Submesoscale ocean eddies inhibit the development of quasi-decadal climate variability in the equatorial central Pacific, according to a high-resolution global climate simulation.

Drivers of δ18O Variability Preserved in Ice Cores From Earth's Highest Tropical Mountain

AbstractIn 2019, four ice cores were recovered from the world's highest tropical mountain, Nevado Huascarán (Cordillera Blanca, Peru; 9.11°S, 77.61°W). Composite hydroclimate records of the two Col cores (6,050 masl) and the two Summit cores (6,768 masl) are compared to gridded gauge‐analysis and reanalysis climate data for the most recent 60‐year. Spatiotemporal correlation analyses suggest that the ice core oxygen stable isotope (δ18O) record largely reflects tropical Pacific climate variability, particularly in the NINO3.4 region. By extension, the δ18O record is strongly related to rainfall over the Amazon Basin, as teleconnections between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and hydrological behavior are the main drivers of the fractionation of water isotopes. However, on a local scale, modulation of the stable water isotopes appears to be more closely governed by upper atmospheric temperatures than by rainfall amount. Over the last 60 years, the statistical significance of the climate/δ18O relationship has been increasing contemporaneously with the atmospheric and oceanic warming rates and shifts in the Walker circulation. Isotopic records from the Summit appear to be more sensitive to large‐scale temperature changes than the records from the Col. These results may have substantial implications for modeling studies of the behavior of water isotopes at high elevations in the tropical Andes.

Ensemble Spread Behavior in Coupled Climate Models: Insights From the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 Large Ensemble

AbstractAssessing uncertainty in future climate projections requires understanding both internal climate variability and external forcing. For this reason, single‐model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs) run with Earth System Models (ESMs) have recently become popular. Here we present a new 20‐member SMILE with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1‐LE), which uses a “macro” initialization strategy choosing coupled atmosphere/ocean states based on inter‐basin contrasts in ocean heat content (OHC). The E3SMv1‐LE simulates tropical climate variability well, albeit with a muted warming trend over the twentieth century due to overly strong aerosol forcing. The E3SMv1‐LE's initial climate spread is comparable to other (larger) SMILEs, suggesting that maximizing inter‐basin ocean heat contrasts may be an efficient method of generating ensemble spread. We also compare different ensemble spread across multiple SMILEs, using surface air temperature and OHC. The Community Earth system Model version 1, the only ensemble which utilizes a “micro” initialization approach perturbing only atmospheric initial conditions, yields lower spread in the first ∼30 years. The E3SMv1‐LE exhibits a relatively large spread, with some evidence for anthropogenic forcing influencing spread in the late twentieth century. However, systematic effects of differing “macro” initialization strategies are difficult to detect, possibly resulting from differing model physics or responses to external forcing. Notably, the method of standardizing results affects ensemble spread: control simulations for most models have either large background trends or multi‐centennial variability in OHC. This spurious disequlibrium behavior is a substantial roadblock to understanding both internal climate variability and its response to forcing.

Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux

Atlantic Niño is a major tropical interannual climate variability mode of the sea surface temperature (SST) that occurs during boreal summer and shares many similarities with the tropical Pacific El Niño. Although the tropical Atlantic is an important source of CO2 to the atmosphere, the impact of Atlantic Niño on the sea-air CO2 exchange is not well understood. Here we show that the Atlantic Niño enhances (weakens) CO2 outgassing in the central (western) tropical Atlantic. In the western basin, freshwater-induced changes in surface salinity, which considerably modulate the surface ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), are the primary driver for the observed CO2 flux variations. In contrast, pCO2 anomalies in the central basin are dominated by the SST-driven solubility change. This multi-variable mechanism for pCO2 anomaly differs remarkably from the Pacific where the response is predominantly controlled by upwelling-induced dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies. The contrasting behavior is characterized by the high CO2 buffering capacity in the Atlantic, where the subsurface water mass contains higher alkalinity than in the Pacific.

Tropical Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Latent Heating: A Whole-Tropics Perspective Based on TRMM and ERA5 Datasets

Tropical surface temperature (TST) and its connection with atmospheric heating, including tropical latent heating (TLH), is essential to the interannual variability of tropical atmospheric circulation and global teleconnection. Utilizing seasonally averaged satellite-based TRMM precipitation data as a proxy of TLH and ERA5-based TST data from 1998 to 2018, we reveal some new features in terms of cross-hemispheric connection in the TLH and TST variability by decomposing them into equatorially symmetric and antisymmetric components. We find surprisingly that the spatial patterns of TLH projected upon the first principal components (PC1) of symmetric and antisymmetric TSTs over the whole-tropics, are very similar to each other, seemingly at odds with the classic Mastuno–Gill theory. The similarity in the projected TLH patterns is mainly because the PC1s of symmetric and antisymmetric TSTs co-vary temporally with a very high correlation. We use the spatial pattern of local correlation between symmetric and antisymmetric components, for both TST and TLH to depict geographic dependence of the symmetric–antisymmetric connection. We suggest that a whole-tropics perspective, which takes the different but connected nature of equatorially symmetric and antisymmetric modes across the whole-tropics into consideration, may well be useful in understanding and predicting tropical climate variability because clarifying the puzzle raised in this research from such a perspective about the consistency between the observation and the classic Mastuno–Gill theory is directly related to the fundamental dynamics of tropical systems, such as Walker circulation, monsoons, and their relationship with underlying land and sea conditions.

Editorial: Dynamics and impacts of tropical climate variability: Understanding trends and future projections

Editorial: Dynamics and impacts of tropical climate variability: Understanding trends and future projections

Concordant changes in late Holocene hydroclimate across southern Patagonia modulated by westerly winds and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

AbstractThe southern westerly winds influence weather patterns and water resources across the southern high-latitude regions, with important socioeconomic impacts. The strengthening and poleward migration of these winds since the late 20th century also have implications for regional environmental change, including drought, wildfire, and sea-ice loss. However, it is challenging to recognize the natural variability of the westerlies and predict their future behavior, as those recent changes have been influenced by anthropogenic factors. We present a 4200-yr-long record from a southern Patagonian peatland in a location that is sensitive to changes in the position and/or strength of the westerlies. Our δ13C record shows a 6‰ increasing trend from 4200 to 1200 cal. yr B.P., indicating a progressive, millennial-scale increase in peatland moisture. This long-term trend is attributed to an increase in moisture induced by strengthening southern westerly winds associated with a change in the mean state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. Superimposed on this millennial trend, centennial-scale shifts in hydroclimate persist into modern times. We suggest that a “paleo”–Southern Annular Mode, which is linked to tropical Pacific climate, with dry events contemporaneous with positive phases and La Niña–like conditions, is responsible for this enhanced hydroclimate variability. Overall, our results point to millennial- and centennial-scale changes in hydroclimate during the late Holocene that link tropical Pacific climate variability with the Southern Annular Mode and the southern westerlies, with far-reaching implications for future changes in the southern high latitudes, including CO2 ventilation from the Southern Ocean.

Non‐Linear Response of the Extratropics to Tropical Climate Variability

AbstractThere are established El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) teleconnections to the extratropics that alter the strength of the polar vortex. Here, we demonstrate non‐linearity in the stratospheric polar vortex response to ENSO and QBO combined, in climate model simulations and observational data. We show that the combined effect of El Niño and QBO easterly phase (QBO‐E) on the polar vortex is greater than the linear combination of the individual responses to El Niño and QBO‐E separately. Observations support the model results, despite a relatively small sample of observed cases. We propose that non‐linearity in the teleconnection to ENSO and QBO is caused by the combined effects of an increase in wave driving from El Niño and more poleward propagation of wave activity during QBO‐E. Our results have implications for extreme winters when both El Niño and QBO‐E are active.