Tropical Atlantic Variability Research Articles

Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing

AbstractUnderstanding the impact of radiative forcing on climate variability and change in the Tropical Atlantic is crucial for different socio-economic sectors, given their substantial impacts in both local and remote regions. To properly evaluate the effect of a changing climate on the variability, the use of standard transient historical and scenario simulations requires very large ensembles. A computationally cheaper alternative implemented in this study consists of performing two 250-year-long atmosphere-ocean coupled simulations with EC-EARTH 3.3 (CMIP6 version) with fixed radiative forcing at the years 2000 and 2050, representative of present and future climate conditions, respectively. The changes in the leading modes of Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), including the Atlantic Niño/Niña and the Subtropical North Atlantic pattern, have been assessed in three target seasons: spring (MAM), summer (JJ) and early winter (ND). While the change in sea surface temperature (SST) climatology shows homogeneous warming, the difference between future and present SST variability exhibits a distinct behaviour consistent along the seasonal cycle, with a decrease in the equatorial region and an increase at subtropical latitudes. This study explores the processes associated with the suppressed/enhanced TAV, with a particular focus on the less-explored early winter season. In agreement with previous studies, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shows a weakening in strength, but the results also show an increase in variability. The AMOC-related deepening of the equatorial thermocline and the flattening linked to weakened trade winds are consistent with the suppressed SST variability of the Atlantic Niño/Niña. On the other hand, the enhanced SST variability at subtropical latitudes is mainly associated with an increase in turbulent heat flux variability, with a minor contribution of the mixed layer depth variability. Variability in turbulent heat flux is influenced primarily by latent heat flux, connected to changes in precipitation variability.

SPEEDY-NEMO: performance and applications of a fully-coupled intermediate-complexity climate model

AbstractA fully-coupled general circulation model of intermediate complexity is documented. The study presents an overview of the model climatology and variability, with particular attention to the phenomenology of processes that are relevant for the predictability of the climate system on seasonal-to-decadal time-scales. It is shown that the model can realistically simulate the general circulation of the atmosphere and the ocean, as well as the major modes of climate variability on the examined time-scales: e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Tropical Atlantic Variability, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability. Potential applications of the model are discussed, with emphasis on the possibility of generating sets of low-cost large-ensemble retrospective forecasts. We argue that the presented model is suitable to be employed in traditional and innovative model experiments that can play a significant role in future developments of seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction.

Tropical Atmospheric Response of Atlantic Niños to Changes in the Ocean Background State

AbstractSince the 1970s, Atlantic Niños during boreal summer have been linked to Pacific La Niñas the following winter. Earlier studies have explained the appearance of the Atlantic‐Pacific teleconnection with changing Atlantic Niño configurations. Here we find that the non‐stationarity of this teleconnection can also be explained by changes in the ocean background state, without changing the Atlantic Niño configuration. Experiments with different atmospheric general circulation models are performed where the same Atlantic Niño pattern is prescribed to different global ocean background states. The 1975–1985 global mean sea surface temperature forces a Walker Circulation response and low‐level convergence over the Maritime Continent, increasing the chance of triggering a La Niña‐like event in the Pacific. These results suggest that ENSO‐predictions could be improved in certain periods by considering tropical Atlantic variability.

The shift of decadal trend in Middle East dust activities attributed to North Tropical Atlantic variability

The Middle East, as the world’s second-largest dust source region, has dust emissions that significantly impact numerous populated areas, extending from North America to South Asia. Over the past two decades, dust activity in the Middle East has exhibited pronounced variability, with a notable trend shift from positive to negative around 2010. The underlying cause of this trend shift remains elusive. In this study, we employ multi-source datasets and global climate model simulations to demonstrate that the variability of Middle East dust activities is closely tied to changes in North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST). Specifically, a warm NTA SST anomaly generates an anomalous regional zonal cell characterized by ascending air motion above the NTA and descending air surrounding the Middle East. The associated surface high pressures around the Middle East subsequently induce hot and dry conditions accompanied by intensified Shamal winds in the north, which are favorable for dust emission and transport. The shift in SST trends from positive to negative in the NTA around 2010 is therefore responsible for the observed dust trend shift in the Middle East. This mechanism holds vital implications for predicting decadal dust variability over the Middle East region and further the project of global environment.

Weakened interannual Tropical Atlantic variability in CMIP6 historical simulations

Weakened interannual Tropical Atlantic variability in CMIP6 historical simulations

Interannual Variability of Barrier Layer in the Tropical Atlantic and Its Relationship with the Tropical Atlantic Modes

Abstract This study reveals the role of the tropical Atlantic variability in modulating barrier layer thickness (BLT) in peak seasons. Based on reanalysis data during 1980–2016, statistical and dynamical analyses are performed to investigate the mechanism of BLT variability associated with the tropical Atlantic modes. The regions with significant correlation between BLT and tropical Atlantic modes are located on the northwest and southeast coasts of the tropical Atlantic, which are consistent with BLT maximum variability regions. In boreal spring, BLT decreases in the northwest because less latent heat release affected by weak trade wind related to the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) shoals the isothermal layer depth (ITLD). In the south equatorial Atlantic, deepened mixed layer depth (MLD) is controlled by the decreasing freshwater input brought by a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and further leads to a thinner barrier layer (BL). However, a shoaling MLD appears in the north equatorial Atlantic, which results from excessive freshwater input, causing a thick BL there. In boreal summer, positive runoff anomaly caused by the Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) leads to upper warming of the tropical northwest Atlantic and a shallowing ITLD, favoring a thinner BL there. However, a southward shift of ITCZ brings more freshwater into the south equatorial Atlantic, inducing a shallowing MLD as well as a thicker BL. AEM-driven horizontal heat advection of the south equatorial current contributes to a thick ITLD in the central southern tropical Atlantic and thus increases BLT. Significance Statement This research aims to reveal how the tropical Atlantic meridional and equatorial interannual climatic modes affect barrier layer thickness (BLT). These two climate modes can affect the wind field, ocean current, and precipitation through air–sea interaction processes, and further affect mixing, heat–salt transport, and stratification in the upper ocean and thus BLT. This finding is important because the barrier layer restricts the exchange of heat, momentum, mass, and nutrients between the mixed layer and the thermocline, thereby impacting local and remote weather events, the ecological environment, and the climate. Our results provide guidance for interpreting the interannual variability of BLT in the tropical Atlantic.

Assessment of Tropical Atlantic ocean variability and associated rainfall sensibility due to atmospheric ozone changes

Considering the impacts of atmospheric ozone changes on climate, its effects on Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) since 1955 are investigated. Two ensembles of simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project are examined. One of them (varO3) considers historic tropospheric and stratospheric ozone levels while the other (fixO3) keeps ozone fixed at the 1955 levels. Results for varO3 reveal a warming in the northern Tropical Atlantic (TA) when compared to fixO3, which is more pronounced in boreal spring, and a cooling of the southern TA in early summer. A dipole-like pattern was also observed in the mean zonal wind stress field, with a weakening of the trade winds in northern TA and strengthening in southern TA, although the strongest difference is observed in the southern westerlies, which are intensified. As for the impact on the main rainfall regions, results show differences between the experiments in the depiction of the Atlantic Ocean convergence zones. The fixed ozone experiment shifts the ITCZ position to the south, which leads to an increase in precipitation over most of Northeast Brazil and western South Africa, in addition to simulating lower precipitation in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone region. However, although there are differences in SST and precipitation between varO3 and fixO3, the ozone influence on TAV is not significant.

Inter‐Model Spread of North Tropical Atlantic Trans‐Basin Effect Substantially Biases Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Multiyear Prediction

AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Pacific (TP) has world‐wide climate and economic influences; hence, improving its prediction is of great interest. Recent modeling studies suggested that north tropical Atlantic variability can influence TP SST variability and prediction. However, models are subject to biases in both the tropical Atlantic and Pacific, and it remains an open question whether these biases affect the trans‐basin linkages and the prediction of TP SST. To investigate this issue, we apply linear inverse modeling to observations and climate models. We find that removing north tropical Atlantic forcing indeed strongly lowers TP SST multiyear prediction skills in observations and models. Models show a large spread of the Atlantic trans‐basin effect, which leads to markedly different TP SST multiyear prediction skills. Our study highlights the necessity to narrow the inter‐model spread for more reliable TP SST multiyear prediction.

Improved Simulation of ENSO Variability Through Feedback From the Equatorial Atlantic in a Pacemaker Experiment

AbstractThe tropical Pacific Ocean interacts with the tropical Atlantic Ocean on interannual time scales. However, most coupled climate models misrepresent and/or underestimate these teleconnections, which have important implications on the periodicity of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Imposing the observed sea surface temperature over the tropical Atlantic from 1970 onwards, a pacemaker experiment is constructed using the second version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Coupled Model (ACCESS‐CM2). Compared with control runs which reasonably simulate the interaction between ENSO and the north tropical Atlantic variability, the pacemaker experiment significantly improves the impact of the Atlantic Niño/Niña on ENSO. This enhanced teleconnection contributes to a more realistic ENSO periodicity compared with the control runs, thus suggesting that capturing the influence from equatorial Atlantic variability is important for an improved ENSO simulation.

Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

Abstract The high thermal and mechanical inertia of the oceans results in slow changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Changes in SSTs, in turn, can impact atmospheric circulation including water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures throughout the world. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic SST gradient variability, and the West Pacific Warm Pool are patterns of natural climate variability that tend to persist over decadal time periods. There are current efforts to produce decadal climate predictions, but there is limited understanding if this information can be used in water resources management. Understanding the current state of decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and the probability of persisting in that state may be useful information for water managers. This information could improve forecasts that aid operations and short-term planning for reservoir management, domestic and industrial water supplies, flood risk management, energy production, recreation, inland navigation, and irrigation. If conditions indicate a higher likelihood of drought, reservoir managers could reduce flood storage space and increase storage for conservation purposes. Improved forecasts for irrigation could result in greater efficiencies by shifting crops and rotational crop patterns. The potential benefits of using a forecast must be balanced against the risk of damages if the forecast is wrong. Seasonal forecasts using DCV information could also be used to inform drought triggers. If DCV indices indicate that the climate has a higher probability of dry conditions, drought contingency plans could be triggered earlier. Understanding of DCV phenomena could also improve long-range water resources planning. DCV can manifest itself in relatively short-term hydrologic records as linear trends that complicate hydrologic frequency analysis, which has traditionally assumed that hydrologic records are stationary.

Meridional Eddy Heat Transport Variability in the Surface Mixed Layer of the Atlantic Ocean

AbstractWe analyze the interannual variability and trends of the eddy heat transport (EHT) in the surface mixed layer of the Atlantic Ocean from covariances of sea surface temperature (SST) and geostrophic velocities from satellite observations between 1993 and 2018. The EHT is largest along the path of the Gulf Stream in the Northern Hemisphere and the vicinity of the Agulhas Retroflection and Argentine basin in the Southern Hemisphere. On average, meridional EHT in the mixed layer leads to a divergence of heat away from the subtropics in both hemispheres toward the equator and higher latitudes. Depending on latitude, the divergence of the EHT accounts for around 1%–5% of the atmospheric net surface heat flux, but reaches as much as 20% for certain regions. The EHT can be linked to eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and meridional SST gradients using mixing length hypothesis, but the variability of EKE and SST gradients are not enough to capture local EHT variability. For different latitudes, the EHT shows different behavior over time, with a strong increase in northward EHT in the Gulf Stream region, and a decadal oscillation of poleward EHT in the tropical and subtropical regions. This oscillation on larger scales is highly correlated with spatially averaged EKE and the large‐scale SST gradients. A comparison with climate indices indicates a relation to Atlantic climate variability, especially the meridional modes of the Tropical Atlantic Variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

How do Climate Modes Shape the Chlorophyll‐a Interannual Variability in the Tropical Atlantic?

AbstractChlorophyll‐a concentration (Chl‐a) observed by satellite shows a marked seasonal and interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic. This study analyzes how the remotely sensed surface Chl‐a responds to the leading boreal summer climate modes affecting the interannual tropical Atlantic variability over 1998–2018, corresponding to a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase. We show that the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM) and the North Tropical Atlantic Mode (NTAM) significantly drive the interannual surface Chl‐a variability in the equatorial Atlantic, with different timings and contrasted zonal modulation of the cold tongue. The AZM involves remotely forced wave propagations favoring upwelling in the east and Chl‐a modulation in the core of the cold tongue. Instead, the impact of the NTAM is mainly in the west, in response to locally forced pumping that modulates the western extension of the cold tongue. Such conditions can affect the marine food web, inducing significant variations for ecosystem functioning and fisheries.

Future evolution of the Sahel precipitation zonal contrast in CESM1

The main focus of this study is the zonal contrast of the Sahel precipitation shown in the CMIP5 climate projections: precipitation decreases over the western Sahel (i.e., Senegal and western Mali) and increases over the central Sahel (i.e., eastern Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger). This zonal contrast in future precipitation change is a robust model response to climate change but suffers from a lack of an explanation. To this aim, we study the impact of current and future climate change on Sahel precipitation by using the Large Ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). In CESM1, global warming leads to a strengthening of the zonal contrast, as shown by the difference between the 2060–2099 period (under a high emission scenario) and the 1960–1999 period (under the historical forcing). The zonal contrast is associated with dynamic shifts in the atmospheric circulation. We show that, in absence of a forced response, that is, when only accounting for internal climate variability, the zonal contrast is associated with the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic oceans variability. However, future patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are not necessary to explaining the projected strengthening of the zonal contrast. The mechanisms underlying the simulated changes are elucidated by analysing a set of CMIP5 idealised simulations. We show the increase in precipitation over the central Sahel to be mostly associated with the surface warming over northern Africa, which favour the displacement of the monsoon cell northwards. Over the western Sahel, the decrease in Sahel precipitation is associated with a southward shift of the monsoon circulation, and is mostly due to the warming of the SST. These two mechanisms allow explaining the zonal contrast in precipitation change.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Evolution Modulated by Atlantic Forcing

AbstractThe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a strong influence on tropical Atlantic variability, but it is also affected by Atlantic forcing. Previous research has proposed three Atlantic precursors for ENSO: the North tropical Atlantic, the equatorial Atlantic, and the entire tropical Atlantic. However, the relative importance of these Atlantic precursors for ENSO remains unclear. Here, we present evidence from a set of multimodel partial ocean assimilation experiments that equatorial Atlantic cooling is the main contributor for weakening equatorial zonal winds in the Indo‐Pacific sector and subsequent ocean warming in the tropical Pacific. Opposite tendencies occur for a warmer equatorial Atlantic. The equatorial Atlantic affects the interbasin climate seesaw between the Atlantic and Pacific through an atmospheric zonal Wavenumber 1 pattern. However, model mean state biases and systematic errors prevent a precise assessment of the response times for the equatorial Pacific trade winds to Atlantic forcing.

Tropical Atlantic Variability: Observations and Modeling

We review the state-of-the-art knowledge of Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV). A well-developed observing system and sustained effort of the climate modeling community have improved our understanding of TAV. It is dominated by the seasonal cycle, for which some mechanisms have been identified. The interannual TAV presents a marked seasonality with three dominant modes: (i) the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM), (ii) the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and (iii) the variability in the Angola–Benguela Front (ABF). At longer time scales, the AMM is active and low-frequency variations in the strength, periodicity, and spatial structure of the AZM are observed. Also, changes in the mean position of the ABF occur. Climate models still show systematic biases in the simulated TAV. Their causes are model-dependent and relate to drawbacks in the physics of the models and to insufficient resolution of their atmospheric and oceanic components. The identified causes for the biases can have local or remote origin, involving the global ocean and atmospheric circulation. Although there is not a clear consensus regarding the role of model resolution in the representation of the TAV, eddy-resolving ocean models combined with atmospheric models with enhanced horizontal and vertical resolutions simulate smaller biases.

Seasonal predictability of the tropical Atlantic variability: northern tropical Atlantic pattern

A series of ensemble predictability experiments in a setting of the “perfect” model scenario have been conducted using the global coupled community earth system model (CESM), Version 1.1, to evaluate the seasonal predictability of the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) pattern in the tropical Atlantic variability (TAV). Our analysis of an 86-year control simulation shows that CESM reproduces the annual cycle and interannual variability realistically. In particular, the NTA patterns, extracted as the first modes of the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analyses, are consistent between the model and observations. A set of the extreme NTA events is selected from the control simulation based on the peaking values of the time series of the NTA mode. Ensemble predictability experiments are conducted to predict each of these events as the “truth” at seasonal lead times with small perturbations of the atmospheric initial states. The correlation and root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean, as well as the ensemble spread and reliability, are used to assess the prediction skill quantitatively. It demonstrates that the model can forecast the NTA events skillfully at monthly leads up to 9 months. Composite analysis of the predicted positive and negative events is conducted to explore the physical influences of the regional air–sea interaction and the remote forcing from outside the Atlantic basin, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that the surface latent heat flux anomalies, generated by surface wind anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic from boreal fall and winter, force the NTA SST anomalies that peak in spring. Most of these wind anomalies are in turn generated by the remote ENSO forcing. As a result, the NTA pattern can be predicted realistically as long as the ENSO events are predictable.

An intermediate coupled model for the tropical ocean-atmosphere system

An intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model is developed to simulate and predict the tropical interannual variability. Originating from the basic physical framework of the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model, this tropical intermediate couple model (TICM) extends to the entire global tropics, with a surface heat flux parameterization and a surface wind bias correction added to improve model performance and inter-basin connections. The model well reproduces the variabilities in the tropical Pacific and Indian basins. The simulated El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows a period of 3–4 years and an amplitude of about 2°C, similar to those observed. The variabilities in the Indian Ocean, including the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are also reasonably captured with a realistic relationship to the Pacific. However, the tropical Atlantic variability in the TICM has a westward bias and is overly influenced by the tropical Pacific. A 47-year hindcast experiment using the TICM for the period of 1970–2016 indicates that ENSO is the most predictable mode in the tropics. Skillful predictions of ENSO can be made one year ahead, similar to the skill of the latest version of the ZC model, while a “spring predictability barrier” still exists as in other models. In the tropical Indian Ocean, the predictability seems much higher in the west than in the east. The correlation skill of IOD prediction reaches 0.5 at a 5-month lead, which is comparable to that of the state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models. The prediction of IOD shows a significant “winter-spring predictability barrier”, implying combined influences from the tropical Pacific and the local sea-air interaction in the eastern Indian Ocean. The TICM has little predictive skill in the equatorial Atlantic for lead times longer than 3 months, which is a common problem of current climate models badly in need of further investigation.

Inter-annual variability in the tropical Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum into future climate projections simulated by CMIP5/PMIP3

Abstract. Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) plays an important role in driving year-to-year changes in rainfall over Africa and South America. In this study, its response to global climate change is investigated through a series of multi-model experiments. We explore the leading modes of TAV during the historical, Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and future simulations in the multi-model ensemble known as PMIP3/CMIP5. Despite their known sea surface temperature biases, most of the models are able to capture the tropical Atlantic's two leading modes of SST variability patterns – the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and the Atlantic zonal mode (also called the Atlantic Niño or ATL3). The ensemble suggests that AMM amplitude was less during the mid-Holocene and increased during the Last Glacial Maximum, but is equivocal about future changes. ATL3 appears stronger under both the Last Glacial Maximum and future climate changes, with no consistent message about the mid-Holocene. The patterns and the regions under the influence of the two modes alter a little under climate change in concert with changes in the mean climate state. In the future climate experiment, the equatorial mode weakens, and the whole Northern Hemisphere warms up, while the South Atlantic displays a hemisphere-wide weak oscillating pattern. For the LGM, the AMM projects onto a pattern that resembles the pan-Atlantic decadal oscillation. No robust relationships between the amplitude of the zonal and meridional temperature gradients and their respective variability was found.

Future Changes in Extreme El Niño Events Modulated by North Tropical Atlantic Variability

AbstractThe extraordinarily strong El Niño events, such as those of 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016, are known to cause critical socio‐economic impacts worldwide by disrupting global weather patterns, cyclones, drought/floods, and ecosystems. Therefore, it is a critical question how often such extreme El Niño will take place in the future. Although many climate models tend to simulate more frequency extreme El Niño under the greenhouse warming, there is a large intermodel diversity, with a range as large as the multimodel averaged change. The cause for this intermodel uncertainty is not known. Here we show that the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) mean precipitation plays a significant role in controlling changes in the extreme El Niño frequency under global warming; that is, much frequent extreme El Niño events under the greenhouse warming are simulated in the models whose climatological precipitation over the NTA is largely decreased. Relatively drier climatology over the NTA can induce a wetter climatology over the equatorial eastern Pacific through an atmospheric teleconnection, and it provides background condition that the El Niño‐related convective responses are amplified to push El Niño to the extremes.

Is There Evidence of Changes in Tropical Atlantic Variability Modes under AMO Phases in the Observational Record?

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is the leading mode of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability at multidecadal time scales. Previous studies have shown that the AMO could modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance. However, the role played by the AMO in the tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) is still uncertain. Here, it is demonstrated that during negative AMO phases, associated with a shallower thermocline, the eastern equatorial Atlantic SST variability is enhanced by more than 150% in boreal summer. Consequently, the interannual TAV modes are modified. During negative AMO, the Atlantic Niño displays larger amplitude and a westward extension and it is preceded by a simultaneous weakening of both subtropical highs in winter and spring. In contrast, a meridional seesaw SLP pattern evolving into a zonal gradient leads the Atlantic Niño during positive AMO. The north tropical Atlantic (NTA) mode is related to a Scandinavian blocking pattern during winter and spring in negative AMO, while under positive AMO it is part of the SST tripole associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Interestingly, the emergence of an overlooked variability mode, here called the horseshoe (HS) pattern on account of its shape, is favored during negative AMO. This anomalous warm (cool) HS surrounding an eastern equatorial cooling (warming) is remotely forced by an ENSO phenomenon. During negative AMO, the tropical–extratropical teleconnections are enhanced and the Walker circulation is altered. This, together with the increased equatorial SST variability, could promote the ENSO impacts on TAV. The results herein give a step forward in the better understanding of TAV, which is essential to improving its modeling, impacts, and predictability.