Trials In Multiple Sclerosis Research Articles

Flexible Spline Models for Blinded Sample Size Reestimation in Event-Driven Clinical Trials.

In event-driven trials, the target power under a certain treatment effect is maintained as long as the required number of events is obtained. The misspecification of the survival function in the planning phase does not result in a loss of power. However, the trial might take longer than planned if the event rate is lower than assumed. Blinded sample size reestimation (BSSR) uses non-comparative interim data to adjust the sample size if some planning assumptions are wrong. In the setting of an event-driven trial, the sample size may be adjusted to maintain the chances to obtain the required number of events within the planned time frame. For the purpose of BSSR, the survival function is estimated based on the interim data and often needs to be extrapolated. The current practice is to fit standard parametric models, which may however not always be suitable. Here we propose a flexible spline-based BSSR method. Specifically, we propose to carry out the extrapolation based on the Royston-Parmar spline model. To compare the proposed procedure with parametric approaches, we carried out a simulation study. Although parametric approaches might seriously over- or underestimate the expected number of events, the proposed flexible approach avoided such undesirable behavior. This is also observed in an application to a secondary progressive multiple sclerosis trial. Overall, if planning assumptions are wrong this more robust flexible BSSR method could help event-driven designs to more accurately adjust recruitment numbers and to finish on time.

Non-inferiority design for trials in multiple sclerosis

Non-inferiority design for trials in multiple sclerosis

Aging is associated with reduced inflammatory disease activity independent of disease duration in relapsing multiple sclerosis trial populations

Background: Higher age is associated with less inflammatory disease activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). It is unknown whether age itself or disease duration underlies this association. Objectives: This study investigated the effects of age, disease duration, and inflammatory disease activity in people with RRMS. Methods: Individual patient-level data from five large phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was utilized to investigate the association of both age and disease duration with annualized relapse rate (ARR), contrast-enhancing lesions (CELs), and new T2 lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and follow-up. Results: The data set included 5626 participants. Higher age was associated with lower ARRs, lower CEL number on MRI at baseline and follow-up, and lower new T2 lesion numbers at follow-up. This effect was present in all disease duration groups. For example, we found a lower number of new T2 lesions on MRI during follow-up in higher age groups compared to lower age groups, independent of disease duration. Conclusion: Aging in RRMS is associated with a lower risk of inflammatory disease activity, across different disease durations. Age should be taken into account when designing clinical trials and future research should investigate how age should be integrated into personalized predictions of treatment response and risk profiling.

Efficacy of Ofatumumab and Teriflunomide in Patients With Relapsing MS From Racial/Ethnic Minority Groups: ASCLEPIOS I/II Subgroup Analyses.

Race and ethnicity may influence the efficacy of disease-modifying therapies in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Incidence of MS in ethnically diverse groups may be higher; however, these populations are under-represented in MS trials. This post hoc analysis compared the proportion of patients achieving 3-parameter no evidence of disease activity (NEDA-3) with ofatumumab vs teriflunomide in participants with relapsing MS (RMS) enrolled in the ASCLEPIOS I/II trials by race/ethnicity subgroup. ASCLEPIOS I/II were identical, double-blind, double-dummy, active-controlled, multicenter, phase 3 trials. Participants were randomized (1:1) to receive ofatumumab 20 mg every 4 weeks or teriflunomide 14 mg once daily for up to 30 months. Pooled data were used to determine the efficacy/safety of ofatumumab vs teriflunomide in participants who self-identified as non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, Hispanic/Latino, or non-Hispanic White. Participants who did not self-identify into one of these groups were classified as other/unknown. Of the 1,882 participants, 64 (3.4%) self-identified as non-Hispanic Black, 71 (3.8%) as non-Hispanic Asian, 145 (7.7%) as Hispanic/Latino, and 1,538 (81.7%) as non-Hispanic White. Baseline participant demographics/characteristics were largely balanced across subgroups, aside from minor variations in sex, disease duration, and MRI lesions. From months 0 to 24, the proportion of ofatumumab vs teriflunomide-treated patients achieving NEDA-3 (odds ratio [95% CI]) was as follows: non-Hispanic Black, 33.3% vs 3.4% (15.9 [1.67-151.71; p = 0.0162]); non-Hispanic Asian, 42.9% vs 21.9% (3.18 [0.95-10.59; p = 0.06]); Hispanic/Latino, 36.6% vs 18.6% (3.21 [1.32-7.79; p = 0.01]); and non-Hispanic White, 37.4% vs 16.6% (3.57 [2.73-4.67; p < 0.0001]). Rates of AEs were generally similar between treatment groups and across race/ethnicity subgroups; no new or unexpected safety signals were identified. Ofatumumab was associated with greater proportions of NEDA-3 achievement than teriflunomide across race/ethnicity subgroups in the ASCLEPIOS trials. Within each treatment group, the proportion of patients achieving NEDA-3 from months 0 to 24 was similar across the subgroups and overall pooled population. Both ofatumumab and teriflunomide were well tolerated. Future MS trials should include ethnically diverse groups to better inform treatment decisions and improve real-world patient outcomes. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02792218 (clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02792218), NCT02792231 (clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02792231). Submission date: June 2, 2016. First enrollment: August 26, 2016. This study provides Class II evidence that among patients aged 18-55 years with RMS, the improvement in NEDA-3 with ofatumumab was comparably better than with teriflunomide among patients self-identified as non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic White, Hispanic/Latino, and other/unknown.

Emulating randomised clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with non-randomised real-world evidence: an application using data from the MSBase Registry

BackgroundTo mimic as closely as possible a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and calibrate the real-world evidence (RWE) studies against a known treatment effect would be helpful to understand if RWE...

Diroximel Fumarate in Patients with Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: NEDA-3 After Re-Baselining in the Phase3 EVOLVE-MS-1 Study.

Diroximel fumarate (DRF) and dimethyl fumarate (DMF) are orally administered fumarate disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for multiple sclerosis (MS). The safety, tolerability, and exploratory efficacy of DRF were evaluated in the phase3 EVOLVE-MS-1 study. No Evidence of Disease Activity (NEDA-3) is a composite efficacy endpoint used in clinical trials for MS defined as no relapse, no 24-week confirmed disability progression (CDP), no new/newly enlarging T2 lesions, and no new gadolinium-enhancing lesions. As NEDA outcomes in studies may be confounded by initial disease activity, the objective of this analysis was to evaluate NEDA-3 in EVOLVE-MS-1 for newly enrolled patients and patients who were re-baselined after approximately 7weeks. Patients entered EVOLVE-MS-1 as either newly enrolled or having completed the 5-week phase3 EVOLVE-MS-2 study of DRF and DMF. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) was performed at baseline before each study (approx. 7weeks apart) and at weeks48 and 96 in EVOLVE-MS-1. Therefore, patients entering from EVOLVE-MS-2 were re-baselined after approximately 7weeks. NEDA-3 outcomes on DRF are reported for prior DRF, prior DMF, and de novo patient groups. Of 1057 patients in EVOLVE-MS-1, 239 (22.6%) had rolled over from receiving DRF in EVOLVE-MS-2 ("prior DRF"), 225 (21.3%) had rolled over from receiving DMF in EVOLVE-MS-2 ("prior DMF"), and 593 (56.1%) were newly enrolled ("de novo"). At week48, Kaplan-Meier estimates of NEDA-3 were 72.3% (prior DRF), 72.1% (prior DMF), and 62.1% (de novo); at week96, estimates were 50.2% (prior DRF), 48.2% (prior DMF), and 36.5% (de novo). In EVOLVE-MS-1, after re-baselining at approximately 7weeks, approximately half of DRF-treated patients achieved NEDA-3 at week96, compared with 36.5% of patients who were not re-baselined. Re-baselining may be useful for assessing efficacy of DMTs by mitigating the influence of disease activity prior to the onset of efficacy. NCT03093324 (EVOLVE-MS-2); NCT02634307 (EVOLVE-MS-1).

Do efficacy results obtained from randomized controlled trials translate to effectiveness data from observational studies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis?

Randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard in regulatory decision making, as observational studies are known to have important methodological limitations. However, real-world evidence may be helpful in specific situations. This review investigates how the effect estimates obtained from randomized controlled trials compare to those obtained from observational studies, using drug therapy for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis as an example. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials and observational studies was conducted. The primary outcome was the annualized relapse rate. Using (network) meta-analysis together with posterior predictive distributions, the drug-specific rate ratios from the network of randomized controlled trials were compared with those from the network of observational studies. Effect estimates from 26 observational studies showed greater magnitudes and were less precise compared to estimates obtained from 21 randomized controlled trials. Twenty of the 28 treatment comparisons between designs had similar rate ratios. Seven inconsistencies in observed rate ratios could be attributed to two specific disease-modifying therapies. In this case study, estimates from observational studies predominantly agreed with estimates from randomized controlled trials given their posterior predictive distributions. Multiple observational studies together may therefore supplement additional pivotal randomized controlled trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, for instance facilitating the extrapolation of trial results to the broader patient population.

Therapeutic lag: Is treatment effect delayed in progressive MS?

Background: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) often revealed non-significant treatment effects on disability progression. Objectives: To investigate whether the failure to detect a significant benefit from treatment may be motivated by a delay in treatment effect, possibly related to baseline characteristics. Methods: We re-analyzed data from two RCTs testing interferon-beta and glatiramer-acetate versus placebo in progressive MS with no significant effect on EDSS progression. We first designed a time-dependent Cox model with no treatment effect up to time = t0, and constant hazard ratio (HR) after time = t0. We selected the best-fitting t0 from 0 (standard Cox model) to 2.5 years. Furthermore, we modeled the delay as a function of baseline EDSS and fitted the resulting Cox model to the merged dataset. Results: The time-dependent Cox model revealed a significant benefit of treatment delayed by t0 = 2.5 years for the SPECTRIMS study (HR = 0.65 (0.43–0.98), p = 0.041), and delayed by t0 = 2 years for the PROMISE study (HR = 0.65, (0.42–0.99), p = 0.044). In the merged dataset, the HR for the EDSS-dependent delayed effect was 0.68 (0.56, 0.82), p < 0.001. Conclusion: The assumption of a delayed treatment effect improved the fit to the data of the two examined RCTs, uncovering a significant, although shifted, benefit of treatment.

Comparative Effectiveness of Natalizumab, Fingolimod, and Injectable Therapies in Pediatric-Onset Multiple Sclerosis: A Registry-Based Study.

Patients with pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) typically experience higher levels of inflammation with more frequent relapses, and though patients with POMS usually recover from relapses better than adults, patients with POMS reach irreversible disability at a younger age than adult-onset patients. There have been few randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in patients with POMS, and most available data are based on observational studies of off-label use of DMTs approved for adults. We assessed the effectiveness of natalizumab compared with fingolimod using injectable platform therapies as a reference in pediatric patients in the global MSBase registry. This retrospective study included patients with POMS who initiated treatment with an injectable DMT, natalizumab, or fingolimod between January 1, 2006, and May 3, 2021. Patients were matched using inverse probability treatment weighting. The primary outcome was time to first relapse from index therapy initiation. Secondary study outcomes included annualized relapse rate; proportions of relapse-free patients at 1, 2, and 5 years; time to treatment discontinuation; and times to 24-week confirmed disability worsening and confirmed disability improvement. A total of 1,218 patients with POMS were included in this analysis. Patients treated with fingolimod had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated with injectable DMTs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.83; p = 0.008). After adjustment for prior DMT experience in the unmatched sample, patients treated with natalizumab had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated either with injectable DMTs (HR, 0.15; 95% CI 0.07-0.31; p < 0.001) or fingolimod (HR, 0.37; 95% CI 0.14-1.00; p = 0.049). The adjusted secondary study outcomes were generally consistent with the primary outcome or with previous observations. The findings in the inverse probability treatment weighting-adjusted patient populations were confirmed in multiple sensitivity analyses. Our analyses of relapse risk suggest that natalizumab is more effective than fingolimod in the control of relapses in this population with high rates of new inflammatory activity, consistent with previous studies of natalizumab and fingolimod in adult-onset patients and POMS. In addition, both fingolimod and natalizumab were more effective than first-line injectable therapies. This study provides Class II evidence that patients with POMS treated with natalizumab had a lower risk of relapse than those with fingolimod.

Outcome Reporting Bias in Clinical Trials Researching Disease-Modifying Therapy in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis.

Outcome reporting bias occurs when publication of trial results is dependent on clinical significance, thereby threatening the validity of trial results. Research on immunomodulatory drugs in multiple sclerosis has thrived in recent years. We aim to comprehensively examine to what extent outcome reporting bias is present in these trials and the possible underlying factors. We identified clinical trials evaluating the efficacy and safety of immunomodulatory drugs in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) registered in ClinicalTrials.gov after September 2007 and completed before the end of 2018. Information about study design, type of funding, and primary and secondary outcome measures was extracted from the registry. Timing of registration in relation to study initiation and subsequent amendments to the planned outcomes were reviewed. Publications related to these trials were identified in several bibliographic databases using the trial registration number. Registered primary and secondary outcomes were recorded for each trial and compared with outcomes in the publication describing the main outcomes of the trial. A search of ClinicalTrials.gov identified 535 eligible registered clinical trials; of these, 101 had a matching publication. Discrepancies between registered and published primary and secondary outcomes were found in 95% of the trials, including discrepancies between the registered and published primary outcomes in 26 publications. Forty-four percent of the published secondary outcomes were not included in the registry. A similar proportion of registered and nonregistered reported primary efficacy outcomes were positive (favoring the intervention). Nonindustry-funded and open-label trials in MS were more prone to selective primary outcome reporting, although these findings did not reach statistical significance. Only two-thirds of the trials were registered in ClinicalTrials.gov before the trial start date, and 62% of trials made amendments in registered outcomes during or after the trial period. Selective outcome reporting is prevalent in trials of disease-modifying drugs in people with MS. We propose methods to diminish the occurrence of this bias in future research.

Serum neurofilament light for detecting disease activity in individual patients in multiple sclerosis: A 48-week prospective single-center study

Background: Serum neurofilament light (sNfL) reflects neuroaxonal damage and is now used as an outcome in treatment trials of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). However, the diagnostic properties of sNfL for monitoring disease activity in individual patients warrant further investigations. Method: Patients with suspected relapse and/or contrast-enhancing lesions (CELs) were consecutively included and performed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain at baseline and weeks 28 and 48. Serum was obtained at baseline and 2, 4, 8, 16, 24, and 48 weeks. Neurofilament light concentration was measured using Single molecule array technology. Results: We included 44 patients, 40 with RRMS and 4 with clinically isolated syndrome. The median sNfL level peaked at 2 weeks post-baseline (14.6 ng/L, interquartile range (IQR); 9.3–31.6) and reached nadir at 48 weeks (9.1 ng/L, IQR; 5.5–15.0), equivalent to the median sNfL of controls (9.1 ng/L, IQR; 7.4–12). A baseline Z-score of more than 1.1 (area under the curve; 0.78, p < 0.0001) had a sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 70% to detect disease activity. Conclusion: One out of five patients with relapse and/or CELs did not change significantly in post-baseline sNfL levels. The utility of repeated sNfL measurements to monitor disease activity is complementary rather than a substitute for clinical and MRI measures.

Investigating the Prevalence of Comorbidity in Multiple Sclerosis Clinical Trial Populations.

Comorbidity is common in multiple sclerosis (MS) with the most prevalent conditions being depression, anxiety, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. Limited information regarding the representation of comorbidity status is available from phase III clinical trials in MS leading to concern about the potential underrepresentation of individuals with comorbidity in clinical trials. The objective was to estimate the prevalence of comorbidities in MS clinical trial populations. Individual-level data from multiple sponsors were requested for a 2-stage meta-analysis of phase III clinical trials of MS disease-modifying therapies. To ensure consistency of our approach across trials, we followed the Maelstrom retrospective harmonization guidelines. Chronic comorbidities at clinical trial enrollment recommended by the International Advisory Committee on Clinical Trials in MS were considered (depression, anxiety, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, migraine, diabetes, chronic lung disease). Additional comorbidities were also classified. Classification was based on medical history data. Individual comorbidities were summed and categorized as 0, 1, 2, or ≥3. We report the pooled prevalence (95% confidence interval [95% CI]) of comorbidity. The pooled prevalence and prevalence ratios across age, sex, race, disability level, and treatment were also reported. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic. Seventeen trials involving 17,926 participants were included. Fourteen trials enrolled participants with relapsing MS (RMS) while 3 enrolled participants with progressive MS (PMS). The distributions of sex, age, and disability level were generally consistent within RMS and PMS trials. When pooled, almost half of trial participants (46.5%) had ≥1 comorbidity (1: 25.0%, 95% CI 23.0-27.0, I2 = 89.9; 2: 11.4% [9.3-14.0], I2 = 96.3; ≥3: 6.0% [4.2-8.4], I2 = 97.7). Depression (16.45% [12.96-20.88], I2 = 98.3) was the most prevalent comorbidity reported, followed by hypertension (10.16% [8.61-11.98], I2 = 93.2). Heterogeneity was high across trials. Older age and female participants were associated with increased number of comorbidities. Older individuals and male participants had a higher prevalence of hyperlipidemia, while older individuals and female participants had a higher prevalence of depression and anxiety. Individuals with comorbidities are included in clinical trials, although they may still be underrepresented compared with the general MS population. Given the comorbidity prevalence in the trial populations and studies suggesting an association of comorbidities with disease activity, comorbidity may influence outcomes in clinical trials.

Association Between Improved Serum Fatty Acid Profiles and Cognitive Function During a Dietary Intervention Trial in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis.

Cognitive impairment is a common multiple sclerosis (MS)-related symptom that impacts quality of life (QOL). Diet interventions are shown to be beneficial in managing QOL, and the intake of essential fatty acids is linked with improved cognitive function. However, the effect of diets on serum fatty acid profiles and cognitive function is unknown. A previous randomized, parallel-arm trial recruited participants with relapsing-remitting MS (N = 77). Study visits included 4 time points: run-in, baseline, 12 weeks, and 24 weeks. During the run-in phase, participants followed their usual diet and were then randomly assigned to either a modified paleolithic (Wahls) or a low saturated fat (Swank) diet at baseline. Assessments at study visits included cognitive function assessed by Symbol Digit Modalities Test-Oral (SDMT-O) and Perceived Deficits Questionnaire (PDQ), and serum fatty acids, including eicosapentaenoic (EPA), docosahexaenoic (DHA), and arachidonic (ARA) acids. Both groups had significant improvements in all serum fatty acids (P < .01), except for ARA, as well as SDMT-O at 24-weeks (P < .05), total PDQ at 12 and 24 weeks (P < .01) compared with baseline values. The 12-week changes in ω-3 (EPA + DHA) index and EPA serum fatty acids were associated with SDMT-O changes (P ≤ .05); however, the changes in fatty acid levels did not mediate the effect of the diets on SDMT-O or PDQ (P > .05). Both diets led to improvements in serum fatty acid profiles and cognitive function, with associations between the 12-week ω-3 (EPA + DHA) index and EPA changes with SDMT-O.

Ibudilast reduces slowly enlarging lesions in progressive multiple sclerosis

Background: Ibudilast has shown beneficial effects on several imaging outcomes in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). Slowly enlarging lesions are a proposed imaging biomarker of compartmentalized inflammation within chronic active lesions. Objective: To assess the treatment effect of ibudilast on slowly enlarging lesion volumes over 96 weeks from a phase II clinical trial of ibudilast (Secondary and Primary Progressive Ibudilast NeuroNEXT Trial in Multiple Sclerosis [SPRINT-MS]). Methods: In total, 255 participants with progressive MS from 28 sites were randomized to oral ibudilast or placebo. Participants with at least four analyzable magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were included. Slowly enlarging lesions were quantified using Jacobian determinant maps. A linear model was used to assess the effect of ibudilast. Magnetization transfer ratio within slowly enlarging lesions was assessed to determine the effect of ibudilast on tissue integrity. Results: In total, 195 participants were included in this analysis. Ibudilast significantly decreased slowly enlarging lesion volume (23%, p = 0.003). Ibudilast also reduced magnetization transfer ratio change in slowly enlarging lesions: 0.22%/year, p = 0.04. Conclusion: Ibudilast showed a significant effect on baseline volume of lesions that were slowly enlarging and magnetization transfer ratio in slowly enlarging lesions. The results support the use of slowly enlarging lesions for assessment of compartmentalized inflammation represented by chronic active lesions and provide further support for the neuroprotective effects of ibudilast in progressive MS.

Use of pragmatic randomized trials in multiple sclerosis: A systematic overview.

Pragmatic trials are increasingly recognized for providing real-world evidence on treatment choices. The objective of this study is to investigate the use and characteristics of pragmatic trials in multiple sclerosis (MS). Systematic literature search and analysis of pragmatic trials on any intervention published up to 2022. The assessment of pragmatism with PRECIS-2 (PRagmatic Explanatory Continuum Indicator Summary-2) is performed. We identified 48 pragmatic trials published 1967-2022 that included a median of 82 participants (interquartile range (IQR) = 42-160) to assess typically supportive care interventions (n = 41; 85%). Only seven trials assessed drugs (15%). Only three trials (6%) included >500 participants. Trials were mostly from the United Kingdom (n = 18; 38%), Italy (n = 6; 13%), the United States and Denmark (each n = 5; 10%). Primary outcomes were diverse, for example, quality-of-life, physical functioning, or disease activity. Only 1 trial (2%) used routinely collected data for outcome ascertainment. No trial was very pragmatic in all design aspects, but 14 trials (29%) were widely pragmatic (i.e. PRECIS-2 score ⩾ 4/5 in all domains). Only few and mostly small pragmatic trials exist in MS which rarely assess drugs. Despite the widely available routine data infrastructures, very few trials utilize them. There is an urgent need to leverage the potential of this pioneering study design to provide useful randomized real-world evidence.

Measuring and predicting the effect of remyelinating therapy in multiple sclerosis: a randomised controlled trial protocol (RESTORE)

IntroductionRemyelination failure hampers symptomatic recovery in multiple sclerosis (MS), underlining the importance of developing remyelinating therapies. Optic neuritis is currently the most established method of measuring remyelination in MS trials....

Socioeconomic and Regional Disparities in Industry-Sponsored Clinical Trials in Multiple Sclerosis

This cross-sectional study examines the geographical and socioeconomic factors associated with trial distribution and outcome of treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS).

The effect of ibudilast on thalamic volume in progressive multiple sclerosis

Background: Thalamic volume loss is known to be associated with clinical and cognitive disability in progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS). Objective: To investigate the treatment effect of ibudilast on thalamic atrophy more than 96 weeks in the phase 2 trial in progressive(MS Secondary and Primary Progressive Ibudilast NeuroNEXT Trial in Multiple Sclerosis [SPRINT-MS]). Methods: A total of 231 participants were randomized to either ibudilast (n = 114) or placebo (n = 117). Thalamic volume change was computed using Bayesian Sequence Adaptive Multimodal Segmentation tool (SAMseg) incorporating T1, fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), and fractional anisotropy maps and analyzed with a mixed-effects repeated-measures model. Results: There was no significant difference in thalamic volumes between treatment groups. On exploratory analysis, participants with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) on placebo had a 0.004% greater rate of thalamic atrophy than PPMS participants on ibudilast (p = 0.058, 95% confidence interval (CI) = −0.008 to <0.001). Greater reductions in thalamic volumes at more than 96 weeks were associated with worsening multiple sclerosis functional composite (MSFC-4) scores (p = 0.002) and worsening performance on the symbol digit modality test (SDMT) (p < 0.001). Conclusion: In a phase 2 trial evaluating ibudilast in PMS, no treatment effect was demonstrated in preventing thalamic atrophy. Participants with PPMS exhibited a treatment effect that trended toward significance. Longitudinal changes in thalamic volume were related to worsening of physical and cognitive disability, highlighting this outcome’s clinical importance.

Can neurofilament lightchain as endpoint in Phase 2 derisk clinical disability worsening in Phase 3 in multiple sclerosis?

BackgroundNeurofilament lightchain has been proposed as a Phase 2 endpoint in clinical trials for multiple sclerosis. We evaluated via simulations the extent to which a positive Phase 2 trial would derisk a Phase 3 trial where the primary endpoint is time to confirmed clinical disability worsening. MethodsUsing a prior distribution of the treatment effect on neurofilament lightchain and a model linking it with clinical disability worsening constructed using the FREEDOMS trial in RRMS patients, the probability of success of two randomized controlled Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials were computed for different scenarios. ResultsThe strength of the correlation between both treatment effects and the success criteria of the Phase 2 trial impact the ability of the Phase 2 to derisk Phase 3. Being more stringent with the success criteria in Phase 2 can increase the Phase 3 PoS by more than 20% after a positive Phase 2 study. Increasing the sample size of the Phase 2 has no substantial impact on the derisking. ConclusionUnder some assumptions a positive Phase 2 trial with neurofilament lightchain as primary endpoint can to a certain extent derisk a Phase 3 trial with clinical disability worsening as primary endpoint.

Treatment reduces the incidence of newly appearing multiple sclerosis lesions evolving into chronic active, slowly expanding lesions: A retrospective analysis.

Newly appearing lesions in multiple sclerosis (MS) may evolve into chronically active, slowly expanding lesions (SELs), leading to sustained disability progression. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of newly appearing lesions developing into SELs, and their correlation to clinical evolution and treatment. A retrospective analysis of a fingolimod trial in primary progressive MS (PPMS; INFORMS, NCT00731692) was undertaken. Data were available from 324 patients with magnetic resonance imaging scans up to 3 years after screening. New lesions at year 1 were identified with convolutional neural networks, and SELs obtained through a deformation-based method. Clinical disability was assessed annually by Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Nine-Hole Peg Test, Timed 25-Foot Walk, and Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test. Linear, logistic, and mixed-effect models were used to assess the relationship between the Jacobian expansion in new lesions and SELs, disability scores, and treatment status. One hundred seventy patients had ≥1 new lesions at year 1 and had a higher lesion count at screening compared to patients with no new lesions (median = 27 vs. 22, p = 0.007). Among the new lesions (median = 2 per patient), 37% evolved into definite or possible SELs. Higher SEL volume and count were associated with EDSS worsening and confirmed disability progression. Treated patients had lower volume and count of definite SELs (β = -0.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.07 to -0.01, p = 0.015; β = -0.36, 95% CI = -0.67 to -0.06, p = 0.019, respectively). Incident chronic active lesions are common in PPMS, and fingolimod treatment can reduce their number.