Climate Change Trends Research Articles

Estimation of Future Climate Change in Low Folded Zone, Iraq with the LARS-WG and Five GMS Models under CMIP5 Scenarios

This study investigates the trends of climate change in the Low Folded Zone region of Iraq and provides future projections for daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as precipitation. Using the LARS-WG model and five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, the research aims to provide valuable insights into the anticipated changes in climate variables. The calibration and validation of the model demonstrate its capability to simulate future climatic data, with statistical indices indicating a strong correlation between observed and generated data. The projected future temperatures showed a consistent increase across all selected stations, with average annual maximum temperatures expected to rise by 1.06 to 5.48°C by the end of the twenty-first century. The highest increase in temperatures was predicted under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. The results also indicated spatial and temporal variations in precipitation patterns, with the annual percentage increase in precipitation ranging from 7.07% to 10.75% for RCP 2.6, 0% to 2.2% for RCP4.5, and 3.7% to 6.8% for RCP8.5. The findings reveal a projected increase in annual temperatures and variable precipitation patterns, highlighting the urgency of proactive measures to address the challenges posed by climate change in the region. The results of this study are crucial for informing decision-makers and planners in developing strategies for climate change adaptation and resource management, particularly in water resource management and agricultural planning.

Rainwater harvesting technologies in arid plains of Argentina: small local strategies vs. large centralized projects

Access to water has been and remains one of humanity’s greatest challenges. Especially in arid plains exposed to significant climatic fluctuations and future global change trends. In the past and present, local communities of the arid plains of central-western Argentina (i.e., Guanacache Lagoons, Cuyo region) have developed multiple strategies to manage water supply problems. The aims of this study are: i) to characterize the different water harvesting technologies (pre-Hispanic and modern) used, and ii) to compare the small local strategies of water harvesting (bottom-up solutions) with the large centralized projects (top-down solutions). On the one hand, we show the transformations of these technologies over time, and the challenges faced by inhabitants in the context of climate change trends. On the other hand, we analyze the role of the state through hydraulic policies and projects implemented by the provincial states over the last two centuries and how this impacted the study area. This review is based on a historical and archaeological bibliography, and recent publications about the region, including articles based on our ethnographic fieldwork. Our results demonstrate the valuable experience accumulated by local populations in water harvesting methods, particularly in areas where groundwater is deep and saline, and shows the adaptability of these technologies in contexts of increasing scarcity. We considered that local indigenous knowledge can largely contribute to the sustainable management of water resources. This study might be useful for decision-makers and water managers in drylands around the world to find and equitable approach that combines technical advances with local knowledge.

Assessment of climate change knowledge of residents of informal sectors of Abuja Federal Capital City, Nigeria

ABSTRACT Urban informal settlement dwellers face uncertainties from climate change (CC) and need to understand its causes and impacts to adapt effectively. Few studies explore their levels of CC knowledge. This research surveyed 388 purposively selected households across five informal sectors in Abuja, Nigeria (Apo, Gaduwa, Garki, Jabi, and Mabushi), using structured questionnaires. Key variables assessed for their influence on CC knowledge included age, family size, education, income, livelihood type, tenure security, and marital status. Mann-Whitney and Chi-Square tests evaluated the significance of these factors. Findings showed that most households are aware of local CC trends, with perceptions closely aligning with scientific insights. However, understanding of CC causes and consequences remains limited. Among seven hypotheses tested, age, family size, income, and livelihood type significantly influenced CC knowledge, while education, tenure security, and marital status had little effect. The study highlights that even educated residents may lack comprehensive knowledge of CC causes. Enhancing scientific understanding in CC-prone communities is essential for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Changes in the soil and vegetation cover of the Kochubey biosphere station under global warming in recent years

Objectives: The study and long-term observations of changes in the spatial structure of vegetation cover of pasture landscapes of the Kochubey Biosphere Station (KBS) due to global climate warming. Arid pasture landscapes, due to the peculiarities of their spatial structure (the presence of semi-desert vegetation groupings) are a good indicator of modern climatic changes. To achieve this goal, the spatial structure and the current state of the arid landscapes of the Northwestern Caspian Sea in the territory of the KBS have been studied. The analysis of the biological diversity of species was carried out. Also the characteristics of the common features of seasonal dynamics of landscapes were studied. Moreover, trends of climatic changes in the landscape structure of the territory and trends in anthropogenic transformation of arid landscapes of the region were identified. It has been revealed that the main reasons for the reduction of biodiversity are habitat fragmentation, the introduction of alien species, the settlement of native species outside the range, ecotonization and “islandization” of pasture ecosystems, and the displacement of range boundaries. Since the goal of preserving the components of vegetation biodiversity is to reduce the pressures caused by climate change, adaptation measures should be aimed at reducing the rate of fragmentation and degradation of pasture landscapes. Monitoring observations have shown that over the last 20-century period there have been rhythmically repeating changes in climate and soil and vegetation cover, which indicates high mobility of vegetation. It has been established that the contribution of anthropogenic land degradation to desertification is confirmed by a significant linear trend in interannual fluctuations in indicators of pasture digression in the region. It has been established that the contribution of anthropogenic land degradation to desertification is confirmed by a significant linear trend in interannual fluctuations in indicators of pasture digression in the region. Due to excessive pasture digression, “islands” of anthropogenic desertification are formed here, the lifespan of which is determined by human influence and precipitation fluctuations.

Predicting the Global Potential Suitable Areas of Sweet Osmanthus (Osmanthus fragrans) Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios.

Osmanthus fragrans is a valuable landscaping tree that is appreciated worldwide. However, the optimal environmental conditions for O. fragrans cultivation have yet to be studied in detail, which hinders the preservation of wild resources of this plant and its commercial exploitation. The maximum entropy model was applied to assess the significance of environment variables influencing O. fragrans distribution. Combining data from 629 global distribution points for O. fragrans, predictions were made on the potential effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of suitable habitats for this species in the present and the future. The results indicated that O. fragrans preferred a warm and humid growing environment. Under the current climatic conditions, the potential habitats for O. fragrans were mostly located in the eastern coastal areas of the continents at medium and low latitudes. The main environmental variables that affected its distribution were the precipitation during the warmest quarter, the temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. The analysis indicated that the continuation of current trends in climate change will result in the further reduction of suitable habitats for O. fragrans growth, and the global centroid will shift to the southeast. These findings provided insight into the impact of climate change on O. fragrans habitats, as well as provide guidance for the conservation of wild resources of this species and the breeding of more climate change-resistant varieties for the future.

Climate change and epidemiological trends of malaria and Lassa fever transmission in Nigeria (2015-2022): A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Climate change exacerbates infectious disease transmission in Nigeria, a country with a high burden of infectious diseases. Objective: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis examining the relationship between climate variability and infectious disease transmission in Nigeria. Methods: We systematically searched major databases, identifying 25 studies, with 11 studies meeting the inclusion criteria for meta-analysis using R version 4.4.1. Results: The meta-analysis revealed significant associations between temperature increases and malaria (pooled effect estimate = 1.034, 95% CI: 1.016-1.052) and Lassa fever (pooled effect estimate = 1.029, 95% CI: 1.015-1.043) transmission. Egger's funnel plot showed no significant publication bias, and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the findings. Conclusion: This study provides evidence for the association between climate variability and infectious disease transmission in Nigeria. This underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions to protect vulnerable populations, including children under 5, pregnant women, the elderly, people with comorbidity, and low-income communities.

Industry return volatility and spillover effects in stock market under climate risk perception

ABSTRACT Utilizing alternative dimension reduction methods, this study constructs three Climate Risk Perception Indices (CRPIs) to quantify the impact of investor climate change sentiment on industry return volatility in the Chinese stock market. There are several findings in this study including (1) the CRPIs effectively capture the trend of climate change in China over the past decade. (2) The investor’s attention to climate change positively influences short-term stock market returns, exhibiting seasonal characteristics and industry heterogeneity. (3) The attention serves as an information sender for stocks in Telecommunication, Oil & Petrochemicals, and Environmental Protection. (4) The total spillover effect among climate-sensitive industries is significantly higher during extreme climate events. These conclusions provide empirical evidence for the stock market to respond effectively to climate risks.

Inter- and Intra-Annual Variations in Oak Tree Ring δ13C Values across Different Elevations and Their Climatic Responses in Qinling Mountains

The Qinling Mountains, serving as a natural geographical and climatic boundary in China, require comprehensive climatic records to elucidate the trends in climate changes across the country. While stable isotopes in tree rings are widely employed to indicate historical environmental changes, investigations into tree ring isotopes in the Qinling Mountains, particularly within the widespread broad-leaf oaks, remain limited. In this study, we investigated both intra- and inter-annual variations in the δ13C values of tree rings and their correlations with climatic signals over the past two decades for Quercus aliena var. acuteserrata, a dominant species among oak trees on the main peak of the Qinling Mountains. Our results reveal that responses to climate differ among altitudes and individual trees, with trees at higher altitudes exhibiting higher sensitivity to extreme climate, which is low temperatures and rainfall fluctuations during the growth period in intra-annual δ13C variations. Furthermore, the positive correlations are observed between temperature during growing season and both tree growth and the inter-annual δ13C variations. However, the climate signal appears to be hampered by oak-specific factors, such as intense competition among individuals and the age of trees. Therefore, we suggest a more rigorous selection of sampling and propose further investigations into isotopic fractionation processes in oaks for future studies.

Locally acquired malaria: a retrospective analysis of long-term surveillance data, European France, 1995 to 2022.

BackgroundIn European France, the bulk of malaria cases are travel-related, and only locally acquired cases are notifiable to assess any risk of re-emergence.AimsWe aimed to contribute to assessing the health impact of locally acquired malaria and the potential of malaria re-emergence in European France by documenting modes of transmission of locally acquired malaria, the Plasmodium species involved and their incidence trends.MethodsWe retrospectively analysed surveillance and case investigation data on locally acquired malaria from 1995 to 2022. We classified cases by most likely mode of transmission using a classification derived from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. A descriptive analysis was conducted to identify spatial and temporal patterns of cases.ResultsFrom 1995 to 2022, European France reported 117 locally acquired malaria cases, mostly due to Plasmodium falciparum (88%) and reported in Île-de-France (54%), Paris Region. Cases were classified as Odyssean malaria (n = 51), induced malaria (n = 36), cryptic malaria (n = 27) and introduced malaria (n = 3). Among the 117 patients, 102 (93%) were hospitalised, 24 (22%) had severe malaria and seven (7%) died.ConclusionLocally acquired malaria remains infrequent in European France, with four reported cases per year since 1995. However, with the recent increasing trend in Odyssean malaria and climate change, the risk of re-emergence in non-endemic countries should be monitored, particularly in areas with autochthonous competent vectors. The vital risk of delayed diagnosis should make physicians consider locally acquired malaria in all patients with unexplained fever, especially when thrombocytopenia is present, even without travel history.

Determinants of crop insurance participation of farming households in Mekong River Delta, Vietnam in climate change context

Abstract Agricultural insurance has been implemented in many countries around the world to reduce risks for farming households. In Vietnam, agriculture is the most important industry but is heavily affected by natural disasters and climate change. This study aimed at assessing farmers’ awareness of climate change and analyzing factors affecting agricultural insurance participation of farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The research applied utility theory to build empirical model. We collected primary data from a survey of 400 farming households in Tra Vinh province. Households were selected stratifiedly in 4 coastal districts and then drawn randomly from household lists of communes. The research results showed that the majority of people were aware of climate change trends locally and its impacts on agricultural production. Logit regression model indicated that there were 8 main factors affecting household’s participation in crop insurance including age, gender, farming experience, education level, access to insurance information, civic organization membership, fund borrowing and household size, of which access to insurance information had strongest impact. The study proposed some specific management implications including (i) raising farmer awareness about agricultural insurance through official information channels such as television, radio, as well as informal information through social networks; (ii) strengthen the role of local civic organizations, especially extension services in disseminating information and supporting insurance purchasing activities for farmer households and; (iii) support farmers in part with insurance fees or allow access to small credit from State programs to enhance the participation of agricultural insurance.

Intrapopulation germinability may help the Mediterranean plant species Poterium spinosum L. to cope with climate changes and landscape fragmentation.

Poterium spinosum L. is a key plant species forming typical shrub communities, distributed across the Mediterranean eastern coasts. The conservation of P. spinosum is thus of the utmost importance, especially due to the ever-increasing environmental pressures like climate changes and habitat fragmentation. This study, in particular, investigated for the first time the germination variability of P. spinosum at intrapopulation level, by analysing the germination behavior of five different subpopulations growing along the coasts of Sicily. For a more exhaustive picture of the main drivers of biodiversity loss affecting the distributional area of P. spinosum, the trends of climate and land-cover changes were also studied over the periods 1931-2020 and 1958-2018, respectively. The results found significant intrapopulation variability in P. spinosum, whose germination parameters showed that fruits and seeds from distinct subpopulations respond differently to diverse temperatures. Seeds showed generally higher values of final germination percentage (FGP) compared to fruits, and at higher temperatures: the highest FGP in seeds was 70% at 20°C, whereas in fruits was 58.2% at 15°C. The environmental threats showed worrying trends across the study area: during 1931-2020, the average temperature increased by 1.5°C, whereas the average rainfall declined from 710 to 650mm. Similarly, in the period 1958-2018, the analysis of the CORINE land-cover changes showed a highly fragmented agricultural landscape, where natural areas were reduced to 2.5-5.0%. Germination variability at intrapopulation level should be considered as a fundamental adaptation strategy, which can increase the reproductive success of P. spinosum under climate and land-cover changes.

THE SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIET NAM

Global trends in inequality and climate change are closely related. The poorest and most vulnerable individuals suffer the worst effects of climate change while making the smallest contributions to the situation. Millions of people who are vulnerable are being hit disproportionately hard by the effects of climate change, including extreme weather, health issues, food, water, and livelihood security, migration and forced displacement, loss of cultural identity, and other threats. Children, people with disabilities, ethnic minorities, older people, and other socially marginalized groups are some social groups that are particularly vulnerable to crises. Their geographic locations, financial, socioeconomic, cultural, and gender statuses, as well as their access to resources, services, decision-making authority, and justice, are the core reasons of their vulnerability. The paper presents some of the social dimensions of climate change in Viet Nam, including its impacts on migration, various vulnerable subjects, human rights, health, and businesses. Comments, discussions, and suggestions have also been provided in this paper.

Extreme snowfall variations in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau under warming climate

Snowfall is a critical component of the Earth system and an important indicator and amplifier of climate change. Climate warming is reducing the seasonal snowpack globally, which could have catastrophic consequences for the regions in high dependence on snow for water recharge. However, the climate influences on extreme snowfall events, which significantly impact humans, are still poorly understood. This study uses the Tibetan Plateau snowpack observation dataset combined with NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of snowfall, and to explore its response mechanism to climate change and future change trends across the Lower Yarlung Zangbo River (LYZR) in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP). Annual snowfall decreased at a rate of 1.05 mm per decade (P < 0.05) during the historical period (1960–2014). Relative to 1960–2014, annual snowfall would decline of ∼38 % and ∼ 73 % by the end of the 21st century under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. At the same time, a general decrease in extreme snowfall averaged the LYZR is expected for historical and future periods, but it showed notable spatial variations. The regional increase in extreme snowfall is mainly distributed along the valley of Brahmaputra-Yarlung Zangbo. In addition, precipitation accounted for 66.5 % of the snowfall variations during the historical period. Meanwhile, according to future warming, temperature would dominate snowfall variations, contributing 56.66 % to 72.92 % during 2015–2100. The projected response of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change indicates that it is a double-edged sword. To scientifically address the risks and challenges posed by snowfall changes in alpine regions, it is imperative to limit future climate warming.

Estimation of daily XCO2 at 1 km resolution in China using a spatiotemporal ResNet model

Carbon dioxide (CO2) serves as a crucial greenhouse gas that traps heat and regulates the Earth's temperature. High spatiotemporal resolution CO2 estimation can provide valuable information to understand the characteristics of fine-scale climate change trends and to formulate more effective emission reduction strategies. This study presents a spatiotemporal ResNet model (ST-ResNet) specifically developed to estimate the highest resolution (1 km × 1 km) daily column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) in China from 2015 to 2020. The ST-ResNet model excels in estimating XCO2 by comprehensively considering the complex relationships between XCO2 and its various influencing factors, while efficiently capturing both temporal and spatial correlations, thereby demonstrating remarkable generalization capability. The results show that the ST-ResNet generates a highly accurate XCO2 dataset, outperforming the traditional ResNet. Ground-based validation results further confirm the high accuracy and spatiotemporal resolution of our estimated data product. Using this dataset, the spatial and temporal characteristics of XCO2 across the entire China and several urban agglomerations have been analyzed. The high spatiotemporal resolution estimated XCO2 dataset for China is made publicly available at [https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25272868], offering substantial potential for fine-scale carbon research.

Elevation‐dependent warming and possible‐driving mechanisms over global highlands

AbstractElevation‐dependent warming (EDW) has been a topic of intense debate due to limited observed data in global highland areas. This study aims to fill this gap by utilizing CRU and ERA5 datasets from 1981 to 2021 to explore the trends of climate change and its elevation dependency. The anomalies of temperature indicators (Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin) in both ERA5 and CRU showed significant warming trends over global highlands. Moreover, the response of temperature indicators to elevation across global highlands is not spatially uniform. The linear regression model based on the elevation showed significant warming signals for the temperature indicators at various elevations over the global highlands. On a regional scale, Tmean and Tmax predominantly showed linear EDW over EU highlands, while Tmean in Asian highlands exhibited EDW signals at 4–5 km. Tmin showed EDW at 2.5–5.5 km with ERA5 and 3–5 km with CRU. In the Andes, EDW was prominent at 2.5–4 km. Overall, EDW signals are evident in all studied regions but vary across them. While assessing the driving factors, the results of this study indicate that total column water vapour (TCWV), snow depth (SD), snow albedo, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) correlated positively with the temperature indicators. These findings emphasize the significance of elevation‐specific interactions between environmental factors and temperature in forecasting temperature changes in mountainous areas. Additionally, temperature exhibited coherence with teleconnection indices from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Asian and European (EU) highlands exhibited interzonal coherence with the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, while North American (NA) highlands showed coherence, followed by South American (SA) highlands. These findings provide a comprehensive understanding of EDW and its implications for highland regions globally, including the potential for more severe depletion of snow/ice resources in a warmer future.

Climate Change Trends And Its Effects On The Production Of Selected Food Crops: Evidence From Amaro Kelle District Of Southern Ethiopia

Amaro Kelle district of Southern Ethiopia is a rainfall-based agricultural districts that is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and risk. This study analyzed climate change trends and effects on the selected food crops production: evidence from the Amaro Kelle district of Southern Ethiopia. Secondary data on climate change trends and food crop production from the Ethiopian national meteorological agency and the Amaro Kelle agricultural and rural development office were used for the study. Microsoft Excel was used to analyze the data on temperature, rainfall and crop production trends. The result on Trend analysis showed an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures at the rate of 0.056 and 0.0787 0C per 32 years, while there is a decrease in annual rainfall at the rate of -7.6012 mm per 32 years. These climatic conditions increased maize and sorghum productivity at the rate of 713.69 and 376.56 tonnes per 12 years, respectively, and decreased productivity of teff and wheat at the rate of -2618.5 and -30.892 tonnes per 12 years, respectively. These findings indicated that climate change positively and negatively affected the district's food crop production and food security. Finally, the study recommends that farmers in the district should focus on the cultivation of those crops that correlate positively with increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall trend in the study area.

Practicing nurses' and nursing students' perceptions of climate change: A scoping review.

Human activities have significantly contributed to a persistent climate change trend, posing substantial threats to human health. Nurses regularly interact with patients experiencing the consequences of climate change, making their engagement in addressing this issue crucial. Nonetheless, our understanding of nurses' viewpoints regarding climate change remains limited. This scoping review aims to identify practicing nurses' and nursing students' perceptions of climate change. To fulfil this objective, a documentary search strategy was developed using an iterative process. The search strategy was tested in four bibliographic databases, as well as in the grey literature. A 2-stage selection process was conducted, and relevant data were extracted from selected articles for analysis. Twenty-two scientific articles and 11 documents from nursing associations were selected. The findings suggest that while many nurses and nursing students are concerned about climate change and its effects on their patients' health, their role in addressing the climate crisis is not well understood. Many barriers such as having a heavy workload and the lack of support hindered their ability to adjust their practice in response to the changing climate. Furthermore, many expressed a need for trainings on climate change issues. These results raise a great and urgent demand for these professionals to receive appropriate training to cope with climatic threats to health. Future research should focus on the development of nursing climate leadership, and healthcare organizations should support nursing initiatives and help raise nurses' awareness regarding climate change.

Trends of Climate change: Examination of Trends and Perceived Impacts of Precipitation Variability in Mount Kenya East Region, Kenya

Trends of Climate change: Examination of Trends and Perceived Impacts of Precipitation Variability in Mount Kenya East Region, Kenya

Sugarcane Cultivation Amidst Climate Change Challenges: An in-depth Review of Mitigation Strategies and Environmental Resilience

The sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) holds global significance for sugar and bioenergy production, contributing to the gross domestic product of Pakistan and generating employment. However, environmental degradation resulting from global warming, climate change, and high greenhouse gas emissions pose a critical threat to the sugarcane as well as the sugarcane industry worldwide. Developing countries, like Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh are likely to be more affected because of poor adaptability and forecasting systems, high vulnerability to disasters/extreme events, and insufficient mitigation strategies. Sugarcane production is affected by shifts in climatic conditions, such as temperature, rainfall, and CO2 level, and will continue to be affected by the onset of such events, which are directly linked to geographical areas and the capacity to adapt to such changes. This paper gives a brief description of the challenges and behavior of sugarcane crops to climate change, and the future trend of climate change with respect to sugarcane production to better quantify, comprehend, and counteract the potential negative impact by enhancing the sugarcane production on a sustainable and economically viable basis.

Spatiotemporal and weather effects on the reproductive success of piping plovers on Prince Edward Island, Canada.

Piping plovers (Charadrius melodus sp.) rank among North America's most endangered shorebird species, facing compounding environmental challenges that reduce habitat availability and suppress recruitment and survival rates. Despite these challenges, research on the direct effects of climate variability and extremes on their breeding ecology remains limited. Here, we employ a spatiotemporal modelling approach to investigate how location, nest timing and weather conditions influence reproductive success rates in a small breeding population of C. m. melodus in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada from 2011 to 2023. Analysis of 40 years of monitoring records from a subset of nesting sites revealed that flooding and predation have been persistent sources of reproductive failures in this population, with unexplained losses increasing in recent years. Contrary to our hypotheses, our modelled results did not support a negative impact of extreme high temperatures and strong precipitation events on reproductive outcomes. Instead, we identified a positive effect of T MAX and no effect of strong precipitation, perhaps due to limited exposure to extreme high temperatures (>32°C) and context-specific risks associated with precipitation-induced flooding. However, trends in regional climate change are likely to increase exposure to-and the influence of-such factors in the near future. Our models also identified spatiotemporal variability in apparent hatch success over the study period, as well as worse hatch outcomes across popular beachgoing regions and for delayed nesting attempts. While our results offer preliminary insights into factors affecting breeding success in this population, further research will be imperative to enhance understanding of constraints on recruitment. To this end, we encourage the collection and analysis of additional time-series data of prey populations, human activities, fine-scale weather data and predator/flood risks associated with each nest on PEI.