Trends In Real Exchange Rates Research Articles

Inflation targeting and the real exchange rate trend: theoretical discussion and empirical evidence for developed and developing countries

Abstract Economic literature shows evidence that a competitive real exchange rate (RER), i.e., slightly undervalued, is key for development in developing countries. This paper discusses the connections between inflation targeting (IT) regimes and RER trends in economies highly open to capital flows. Following Rodrik’s (2008. The real exchange rate and economic growth, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Washington, 2008, vol. 39, no. 2 (Fall), 365–439), the RER trend is estimated for a sample of 31 out of the 38 developed and developing countries that, by the final year of the period covered in this study (2019), had already adopted IT. Covering the period 2000–2019, we showed that all developed and Latin American developing countries had an RER overvaluation trend, while the European, Asian and African (South Africa) developing countries registered an undervaluation trend in the same period. Through a dynamic panel data model, we tested and validated the following hypotheses, which, to the best of our knowledge, are a seminal contribution. We found in Latin American developing countries, whose ITs are centred on the main objective of pursuing price stability, the RER overvaluation trend (a by-product of this monetary policy regime) is driven by higher interest rate differentials to the USA and is harmful to their economic growth. In developed countries, this trend is not explained by their IT framework but by their high per capita income level, which reflects their high average labour productivity and development pattern. Yet, the trend of RER undervaluation in Asian and European developing countries and South Africa reflects their governments’ ability to combine a more flexible IT regime with a floating but managed exchange rate system aimed at preserving a competitive and stable RER in the long term.

Real Exchange Rates Determination: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and Balassa-

The Balassa and Samuelson hypothesis -- BS -- (Balassa, 1964, Samuelson, 1964), which natural point of departure is the Salter-Swan (dependent economy) model is analysed. It offers general theoretical justification of the long-run trends in real exchange rates in relation to productivities and prices. This is to say, that taking into consideration the important real world feature of having both tradable and non-tradable goods BS states that if a given country’s productivity in producing tradable goods compared to its productivity in making non-tradable goods and services rises more rapidly than in a (certain) foreign country, then the home country real exchange rate will experience appreciation. Thus if productivity of factors of production grows faster in the home country tradable sector, then relative price in the non-tradable sector should rise. Furthermore, we provide supporting illustrative evidence by empirically assessing the BS effect for Azerbaijan.

Nonlinear trends in real exchange rates: A panel unit root test approach

We analyze the possibility of nonlinear trend stationarity as the alternative to unit roots in 23 OECD real exchange rates, 1974–1998, by adding nonlinear time terms to the CIPS panel unit root test of Pesaran (2007). We follow a thorough bootstrapping approach and propose a technique to adjust statistical significance for the use of multiple tests over several time trend orders. The unit root null that all real exchange rates have unit roots is rejected at better than the 0.05 level. Bootstrapped results from a procedure of Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) suggest that the hypothesis that all are stationary is reasonable. We argue that nonlinear trend stationarity is the most likely alternative hypothesis for at least some of the real exchange rates because: (1) the strongest CIPS rejection occurs when quadratic trends are specified; (2) nonlinear time terms are statistically significant at the 0.10 level; (3) the actual CIPS statistics are more consistent with CIPS sampling distributions from bootstrapped nonlinear trend stationary processes than from linear trend or mean stationary processes.

The export price index with the effect of variety and an empirical analysis

The standard international trade models predict that economic growth induces decreasing export prices. Korea has recorded sustainable economic and export growth, and its export prices have been deteriorating over the last decades. Unlike the standard assumption of one good per country, the new theoretical approach by Krugman [Krugman, P. (1980) ‘Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and Pattern of Trade’. American Economic Review 70, 950–959, Krugman, P. (1989) ‘Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates’. European Economic Review, 33, 1055–1085.], and Helpman and Krugman [Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. (1985), Market structure and foreign trade: increasing returns, imperfect competition, and international economy, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.] takes into account varieties of goods produced in each country. And many studies suggest that traditional estimates without variety effect have been rather under-stated. Therefore this paper develops a proper modeling for quantifying the impact of export variety on an exact export price index. Throughout the period (1984–2000), the conventional export price index without variety effect leads to under-state Korea's export price by 89.3%. This paper shows that the fall in Korean export prices has been offset by the effect of export variety. This paper emphasizes the effect of export variety on international trade.

Exchange Rates and External Adjustment: Does Financial Globalization Matter?

This paper addresses the implications of financial globalization for exchange rate behavior. We highlight two dimensions: first, a wider dispersion in net foreign asset positions implies stronger long-term trends in real exchange rates; second, the impact of currency movements on net external wealth is an increasing function of the scale of international balance sheets.

Forecasting real exchange rate trends using age structure data – the case of Sweden

Theory predicts that life cycle saving and consumption behaviour could cause real exchange rate variations as the age structure varies. Time series regressions show that the Swedish demographic structure has significant explanatory power on the real exchange rate during 1960 to 2002. A model using age shares as regressors is used for medium-term out-of-sample forecasts, which perform well both compared to naïve forecasts and forecasts based on an autoregressive model.

Macroeconomic policies and performance in Latin America

This paper provides new evidence on macroeconomic policies and results in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results are: (i) credibility allows adoption of counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies; (ii) accuracy in meeting inflation targets depends on central bank independence and country risk; (iii) intermediate exchange rate (ER) regimes have become less persistent; (iv) ER regimes matter for inflation and growth; (v) real ER trends are not explained by productivity growth and supply reforms do not resolve real ER misalignments; (vi) financial integration has increased significantly; (vii) foreign shocks are a major growth determinant; and (viii) composition of foreign capital inflows matters for growth.

Neural network pruning applied to real exchange rate analysis

AbstractNeural networks are fitted to real exchange rates of several industrialized countries. The size and topology of the networks is found through the use of multiple correlation coefficients, principal component analysis of residuals and graphical analysis of network output per hidden layer cell and input layer cell. These pruned neural networks are good approximations to varying non‐linear trends in real exchange rates. Non‐linear dynamic analysis shows that the long‐term equilibrium values of several European currencies correspond to the actual values within the European Monetary System. Based on its long‐term equilibrium value, the Euro appears to be undervalued vis‐à‐vis the US dollar at the introduction of the Euro on 1 January 1999. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Does the choice of a nominal exchange rate regime matter for real exchange rate movements? Comments on Orlowski

Orlowski's paper is an important contribution to the literature on monetary policy in transition economies. It studies how variant monetary policies conducted in leading transition economies, Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic, have affected the real exchange rate trends differently. The sample period covers the post-95 period. Orlowski's findings indicate that the choice of a nominal exchange rate regime does matter for the behaviour of real economic variables.

Real Exchange Rate Trends and Growth: A Model of East Asia

In contrast to the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis, many fast‐growing Asian countries have experienced little trend real exchange rate appreciation, or even depreciation. Moreover, their long‐run real exchange rate trend seems to be dominated by movements in traded goods prices. A model is developed which is consistent with these observations. As in the Balassa–Samuelson model, productivity growth is concentrated in the traded goods sector. Nevertheless the real exchange rate may exhibit trend depreciation, driven by persistent deviations in the price of traded goods from those in the reference country. The key feature of the model is the presence of endogenous productivity growth in the distribution services sector.

Deviations of Exchange Rates from Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions

We examine the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates, by comparing the unit root properties of a group of international real exchange rates with two groups of intra-national real exchange rates. Strikingly, we find that while the international real rates taken as a group are mean-reverting, the intra-national rates are not. This is consistent with the view that while monetary shocks may be mean-reverting over the medium-term, underlying real factors do generate long-term trends in real exchange rates.

Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations in a large open economy

This study examines the role of stochastic trends in real exchange rates and foreign output in explaining economic fluctuations in the United States. While many of the results are consistent with recent closed-economy studies, the evidence shows that external shocks have significant short-run effects on economic fluctuations, even in a large country. A real appreciation of the dollar leads to permanent decreases in net exports and temporary decreases in output. Permanent shocks to real exchange rates have surprisingly large effects on output over the course of the normal business cycle.

Deviations of Exchange Rates from Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions

We examine the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates, by comparing the unit root properties of a group of international real exchange rates with two groups of intra-national real exchange rates. Strikingly, we find that while the international real rates taken as a group are mean-reverting, the intra-national rates are not. This is consistent with the view that while monetary shocks may be mean-reverting over the medium-term, underlying real factors do generate long-term trends in real exchange rates.

Deviations of Exchange Rates From Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions

We examine the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates, by comparing the unit root properties of a group of international real exchange rates with two groups of intra-national real exchange rates. Strikingly, we find that while the international real rates taken as a group appear mean-reverting, the intra-national rates are not. This is consistent with the view that while monetary shocks may be mean-reverting over the medium term, underlying real factors do generate long-term trends in real exchange rates.

Global trends in real exchange rates 1960–1984

During 1960–1984, the real exchange rates of developing countries on average depreciated substantially relative to those of developed countries. There were, however, important differences among developing country groups, as well as differences between official and black market rate movements. A simple econometric model of the determination of real exchange rates is used to explain the observed trends. The results suggest that forces within developed countries have caused the average shift in the developed-developing country real exchange rate relationship. But the outcome has varied among developing country groups for reasons specific to those groups.

Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates

One might expect that differences in income elasticities in trade and/or differences in growth rates among countries would give rise to strong secular trends in real exchange rates; for example, fast-growing countries might need steady depreciation to get the world to accept their growing exports. In fact, however, income elasticities are systematically related to growth rates by the ‘45-degree rule’, under which fast-growing countries appear to face high income elasticities of demand for their exports, while having low income elasticities of import demand. The net effect of this relationship between elasticities and growth rates is that secular trends in real exchange rates are much smaller than one might otherwise have expected: relative PPP holds fairly well. This paper documents the existence of a ‘45-degree rule’, and suggests an explanation in terms of increasing returns and product differentiation.

Comments ‘differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates’ by Paul Krugman

Comments ‘differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates’ by Paul Krugman

Comments ‘differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates’ by Paul Krugman

Comments ‘differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates’ by Paul Krugman