Trend Of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Research Articles

Trends in pulmonary tuberculosis mortality between 1985 and 2018: an observational analysis

BackgroundPulmonary tuberculosis (TB) is a major source of global morbidity and mortality. Latent infection has enabled it to spread to a quarter of the world's population. The late 1980s and early 1990s saw an increase in the number of TB cases related to the HIV epidemic, and the spread of multidrug-resistant TB. Few studies have reported pulmonary TB mortality trends. Our study reports and compares trends in pulmonary TB mortality.MethodsWe utilized the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database from 1985 through 2018 to analyze TB mortality using the International Classification of Diseases-10 codes. Based on the availability and quality of data, we investigated 33 countries including two countries from the Americas; 28 countries from Europe; and 3 countries from the Western Pacific region. Mortality rates were dichotomized by sex. We computed age-standardized death rates per 100,000 population using the world standard population. Time trends were investigated using joinpoint regression analysis.ResultsWe observed a uniform decrease in mortality in all countries across the study period except the Republic of Moldova, which showed an increase in female mortality (+ 0.12 per 100,000 population). Among all countries, Lithuania had the greatest reduction in male mortality (-12) between 1993–2018, and Hungary had the greatest reduction in female mortality (-1.57) between 1985–2017. For males, Slovenia had the most rapid recent declining trend with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -47% (2003–2016), whereas Croatia showed the fastest increase (EAPC, + 25.0% [2015–2017]). For females, New Zealand had the most rapid declining trend (EAPC, -47.2% [1985–2015]), whereas Croatia showed a rapid increase (EAPC, + 24.9% [2014–2017]).ConclusionsPulmonary TB mortality is disproportionately higher among Central and Eastern European countries. This communicable disease cannot be eliminated from any one region without a global approach. Priority action areas include ensuring early diagnosis and successful treatment to the most vulnerable groups such as people of foreign origin from countries with a high burden of TB and incarcerated population. Incomplete reporting of TB-related epidemiological data to WHO excluded high-burden countries and limited our study to 33 countries only. Improvement in reporting is crucial to accurately identify changes in epidemiology, the effect of new treatments, and management approaches.

Association between diagnostic delay and prognosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong, China: a retrospective study

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is one of the main infectious diseases that seriously threatens global health, while diagnostic delay (DD) and treatment dramatically threaten TB control.MethodsBetween 2005 and 2017 in Shandong, China, we enrolled pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients with DD. DD trends were evaluated by Joinpoint regression, and associations between PTB patient characteristics and DD were estimated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The influence of DD duration on prognosis and sputum smear results were assessed by Spearman correlation coefficients.ResultsWe identified 208,822 PTB cases with a median DD of 33 days (interquartile range (IQR) 18–63). The trend of PTB with DD declined significantly between 2009 and 2017 (annual percent change (APC): − 4.0%, P = 0.047, 2009–2013; APC: − 6.6%, P = 0.001, 2013–2017). Patients aged > 45 years old (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.223, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.189–1.257, 46–65 years; aOR: 1.306, 95% CI 1.267–1.346, > 65 years), farmers (aOR: 1.520, 95% CI 1.447–1.596), and those with a previous treatment history (aOR: 1.759, 95% CI 1.699–1.821) were prone to developing long DD (> 30 days, P < 0.05). An unfavorable outcome was negatively associated with a short DD (OR: 0.876, 95% CI 0.843–0.910, P < 0.001). Sputum smear positive rate and unfavorable outcomes were positively correlated with DD duration (Spearman correlation coefficients (rs) = 1, P < 0.001).ConclusionsThe DD situation remains serious; more efficient and comprehensive strategies are urgently required to minimize DD, especially for high-risk patients.

Application of the ARIMA Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Tuberculosis in Anhui During COVID-19 Pandemic from 2021 to 2022.

ObjectiveForecasting the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis is important for the rational allocation of health resources. In this study, we predict the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis by establishing the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and providing support for pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control during COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsRegistered tuberculosis(TB) cases from January 2013 to December 2020 in Anhui province were analysed using traditional descriptive epidemiological methods. Then we used the monthly incidence rate of TB from January 2013 through June 2020 to construct ARIMA model, and used the incidence rate from July 2020 to December 2020 to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. Ljung Box test, Akaike's information criterion(AICc), Bayesian information criterion(BIC) and Realtive error were used to evaluate the model fitting and forecasting effect, Finally, the optimal model was used to forecast the expected monthly incidence of tuberculosis for 2021 and 2022 to learn about the incidence trend.ResultsA total of 255,656 TB cases were registered. The reported rate of tuberculosis was highest in 2013 and lowest in 2020. The peak incidence was in March, Tongling (71.97/100,000), Chizhou (59.93/100,000), and Huainan (58.36/100,000) had the highest number of cases. The ratio of male to female incidence was 2.59:1, with the largest proportion of people being between 66 and 75 years old. The main occupation of patients was farmer. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model was the optimal model to forecast the incidence trend of TB.ConclusionTongling, Chizhou, and Huainan should strengthen measures for TB. In particular, the government should pay more attention on elderly people to prevent tuberculosis infections. The rate of TB patient registration and reporting has decreased under the pandemic of COVID-19. The ARIMA model can be a useful tool for predicting future TB cases.

Forecasting the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province of China using advanced statistical time-series analyses.

ObjectiveForecasting the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis is important for the rational allocation of health resources; however, this foresting is often hampered by inappropriate prediction methods. In this study, we performed validation research by comparing the accuracy of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model in a southeastern province of China.MethodsWe applied the data from 462,214 notified pulmonary tuberculosis cases registered from January 2005 to December 2015 in Jiangsu Province to modulate and construct the ARIMA and BPNN models. Cases registered in 2016 were used to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean error rate (MER) were used to evaluate the model fitting and forecasting effect.ResultsDuring 2005–2015, the annual pulmonary tuberculosis notification rate in Jiangsu Province was 56.35/100,000, ranging from 40.85/100,000 to 79.36/100,000. Through screening and comparison, the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 and BPNN (3-9-1) were defined as the optimal fitting models. In the fitting dataset, the RMSE, MAPE, MAE and MER were 0.3901, 6.0498, 0.2740 and 0.0608, respectively, for the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 model, 0.3236, 6.0113, 0.2508 and 0.0587, respectively, for the BPNN model. In the forecasting dataset, the RMSE, MAPE, MAE and MER were 0.1758, 4.6041, 0.1368 and 0.0444, respectively, for the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 model, and 0.1382, 3.2172, 0.1018 and 0.0330, respectively, for the BPNN model.ConclusionBoth the ARIMA and BPNN models can be used to predict the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Chinese population, but the BPNN model shows better performance. Applying statistical techniques by considering local characteristics may enable more accurate mathematical modeling.

The epidemic trend and characteristics of tuberculosis for local population and migrants from 2010 to 2017 in Jiading, China

In the present study, we analyze the epidemic trend and characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) registered in the Jiading Industrial Zone, Shanghai from 2010 to 2017, and the information concerning delays in visit to hospital, diagnosis, and treatment. The most important purpose was to reveal the difference in PTB characteristics between local population and migrants. Tuberculosis epidemic data were collected from the National Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (NISDCP) and the specific Jiading system for tuberculosis patients between 2010 and 2017. Descriptive statistics were produced for the epidemic trend and characteristics of PTB cases. The epidemic trend of PTB for migrants was different from the trend for the local population. The peak months for the presentation of migrant TB cases were July, September, and April. The peak months for the presentation of local TB cases were November, July, and April. The two age groups with the greatest percentage of migrant TB cases were 25–34 years and 15–24 years, and the two age groups for the local TB cases with the greatest percentage were ≥ 65 years and 45–54 years. A certain proportion of patients had a delay in visit to hospital (41.00%), delay in diagnosis (26.04%), and delay in treatment (1.38%). Shanghai is a domestic immigration city; a tuberculosis epidemic cannot be ignored. In the current study, local population and migrants have different epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis. Therefore, different strategies and measures should be adopted for local populations and migrants. In addition, publicity and education concerning early detection and early treatment should be strengthened.

Four decades of pulmonary tuberculosis in deceased South African miners: trends and determinants

ObjectiveWe investigated trends and determinants of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in deceased South African miners.MethodsStatutory autopsies are performed on miners for occupational lung disease compensation, irrespective of cause of death. Data...

Seasonal variations in tuberculosis diagnosis among HIV-positive individuals in Southern Africa: analysis of cohort studies at antiretroviral treatment programmes

ObjectivesSeasonal variations in tuberculosis diagnoses have been attributed to seasonal climatic changes and indoor crowding during colder winter months. We investigated trends in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis at antiretroviral therapy...

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Trends and Treatment Outcomes In The Gomoa West District,Ghana

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Trends and Treatment Outcomes In The Gomoa West District,Ghana

The trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in patients seen at DOTS clinics in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria

We evaluated the pattern of sputum smear positivity and assessed the effects of directly observed treatment short course (DOTS) among tuberculosis (TB) patients at the DOTS clinics in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. In total, 1391 patients were seen at six microscopy and treatment centres across the FCT between January and December 2003. Their sputa were screened microscopically for the presence of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) using the Ziehl-Neelsen staining technique. In total, 296 (21.3%) patients were smear positive; 201 (67.9%) were new cases and 95 (32.1%) were follow-up cases. The highest incidence of sputum smear positivity (24.8%) was found in those aged 21-30 years and the lowest incidence (6%) was found in those aged 71 years and above. No incidence of smear positivity was recorded in children aged 0-10 years. In total, 160 of the men screened were AFB positive (75% new cases, 25% follow-up cases). In comparison, 136 women were AFB positive (59.6% new cases, 40.4% follow-up cases). During the 1-year study period, two deaths were recorded. Men pose a serious threat to public health as most of the follow-up cases result in the tubercle bacilli developing resistance to available anti-TB drugs. This study demonstrated a high prevalence of infectious TB in the population screened, and therefore underlines the need for capacity building through a multisectoral approach in the fight against the disease. Cohort analysis should be the cardinal management strategy in evaluating the effectiveness of TB control through systemic follow-up and reporting of certain indicators in treatment progress and success.

RECENT TRENDS IN PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS CONTROL AND THE ROLE OF NURSES

RECENT TRENDS IN PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS CONTROL AND THE ROLE OF NURSES

Surgical Trends in Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Like others, we have practically abandoned the use of artificial pneumothorax, phrenemphraxis and primary thoracoplasty in the treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis. Most of the patients on our service who do not manifest adequate resolution of their disease under medical management, become candidates for pulmonary resection, unilateral or bilateral. Pulmonary resection is preferred to collapse therapy because: 1) It is considered to offer a more definitive and permanent means of control. 2) It is generally more conserving of respiratory function. 3) It avoids the late complications of artificial pneumothorax and extrapleural plombage. 4) It generally results in immediate sputum conversion. 5) Patients, usually, have a much shorter period of morbidity and can be rehabilitated earlier. 6) It permits a more rapid hospital turnover, reducing the bed shortage and permitting definitive treatment of a much larger number of patients during a specific period of time. 7) We believe that its wider use will materially reduce the number of readmissions due to reactivation and spread of disease. 8) Concomitantly there should be public health benefits if infectiousness is more readily and promptly controlled. 9) By reducing the length of therapy required for treating the individual patient the economic savings, to the patient and the State, should become of great magnitude. I admit that we may be using resection therapy too widely. We may learn that the antimicrobial medications now available, and new ones which will doubtless be discovered, can obviate the need for much of the surgery which we now perform. I have tried to review the trends which the surgical treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis has shown in our hands and certainly in those of many others. We must, however, continually re-evaluate our position. I have not attempted to offer statistics concerning the results of treatment, feeling that they would not have much value, as yet, from the standpoints of numbers and of time. In another 10 years we may look back on this heyday of resection as we do now on that of pneumothorax therapy. For while time is said to heal all wounds, it must also wound all those who would continue to heal by the convictions of yesterday.

Trends in Pulmonary Tuberculosis during Fifty Years at Rutland State Sanatorium

THIS was the first state sanatorium for the treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis to be established in the United States. The project was planned in 1895, and the opening took place fifty years ago, in 1898.1 Many similar institutions were modeled after this one, which was considered quite an achievement at the time.In a review of the yearly reports2 and records of the half century many interesting facts bring out certain trends in pulmonary tuberculosis, most of which apply to this sanatorium but some of which may be found elsewhere in the country.AdmissionsDuring the fifty-year period, this sanatorium . . .

Seasonal trends in pulmonary tuberculosis

Seasonal trends in pulmonary tuberculosis