Trends In Gross Domestic Product Research Articles

Application of Linear Regression in GDP Forecasting

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the core indicator of national economic accounts, which reflects the economic capacity of a region. It is necessary to have an accurate forecast of GDP. GDP prediction plays an important role in formulating economic policies. By predicting the growth trend of GDP, the government can make correct adjustments and regulate economic activities. This paper takes Guangdong Province and Shandong Province as examples, aiming to establish their GDP models respectively, and obtains their important economic factors on the basis of the models. Firstly, the correlation test and stepwise regression method were used to screen out the variables with significant impact on GDP, and then ridge regression was used to solve the multicollinearity to make the model more accurate. Finally, the similarities and differences of important economic factors in the two provinces were compared. The important economic factors of these two provinces can reflect the characteristics of the economic development of China's north and south, which is conducive to promoting the coordinated development of regional economy and win-win cooperation.

Peramalan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Industri Furnitur di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt

Furniture raw materials are still a major challenge in the industry, in line with the wishes of consumers to get good quality raw materials and soaring export demand, so there is a need for a control process to monitor the value of products using forecasting. The purpose of this study was to predict gross domestic product in the furniture industry in Indonesia in 2022. This study used secondary data on the quarterly trend of gross domestic product in the furniture industry in Indonesia 2010-2021 taken from the research industry data processed by BPS and Bank Indonesia, The method used is Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt. The results of the calculation using the double exponential smoothing-holt method obtained a value of α of 0.658 and β of 0.008 where the forecasting results for the 2022 period, namely the 1 quarter of 7.602 billion rupiah, quarter 2 of 7.676 billion rupiah, quarter 3 of 7.749 billion rupiah, and quarter 4 of 7.822 billion rupiah. Where the MAPE value is 0.737% which means forecasting has very good results.

The Effects of Government Borrowing to Investment Growth of the Country

Government borrowing has emerged as one significant method that helps in mobilization of resources for economic growth especially in emerging economics. Most governments in developing economies resort to borrowing as a way of financing budget deficit. This paper identifies the effects of government borrowing to investment growth in the Philippines. Specifically, it presented the trend of gross domestic product, internal debt, and external debt from 1990-2020. The study used Johansen Co-integration, Granger Causality, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to analyze this study. Johansen’s Co-integration analysis revealed that the gross domestic product (GDP), internal debt (ID), and external debt (ED) are rejected at a 5% significant level and showing that all relevant variables have a long-term relationship and the data are co-integrated. On the other hand, unrestricted VAR model, there exist a relationship between gross domestic product (GDP), internal debt (ID), and external debt (ED). The Granger Causality test result revealed the direction of the causal relationship between independent and dependent variables; gross domestic product, internal debt, and external debt at the 5% significant level.

The making-or-breaking of material and resource efficiency in the Nordics

The relevance of efficient direct material input through both export market and domestic material sources offers useful material and resource productivity guidelines from both economic and environmental sustainability dimensions. In the current context, the drivers of material and resource efficiency in the Nordic region are examined by utilizing requisite empirical approaches over the period 1995–2020. The investigation revealed that economic activities which are characterized by Gross domestic product (GDP) alongside the growth of urban population and utilization of oil energy are all detrimental to the region's resource efficiency. It implies that material utilization efficiency cannot be optimized with the current trend of the region's GDP, urban population growth and the use of dirty energy. Contrarily, the findings, further revealed that alternative energy utilization vis-à-vis renewables are key indicators to spur material and resource efficiency in the region, thus throwing more support for the region's unavoidable energy transition goal. These highlighted results alongside the Granger causality inference offer sustainable development measures that are specifically motivated through the improvement of efficient and optimization of output.

Trend of Gross Domestic Product and Per Capita Income of Bangladesh: Past, Present, and Future

Bangladesh's per capita income was half of that of India in 2007. Today, it has surpassed India. The Asian Development Bank has estimated that Bangladesh's GDP will grow at a rate of 6.6% hereafter. According to the 2022 Economic Freedom Index, Bangladesh's economy placed in the 137th position with a score of 52.7 in the World. In the Asia-Pacific region, Bangladesh ranked 29th position out of 39 countries. The resilience of COVID-19 impinged the average growth of the economy. International Monetary Fund (IMF) has envisaged that the World may experience a challenging recession-like situation in 2023. Hence, the present paper attempts to predict the economic condition of Bangladesh through its GDP and Per Capita Income. The study considers 51 years of GDP and Per Capita Income growth data. It has adapted the Trend Projection Method, a linear regression technique, and the Least Square method to analyze data to get the future trend. It has been found that GDP was grown at an average rate of 4.4% and Per capita income at an average rate of 1.8% since 1971. The study reveals that GDP and Per Capita Income may grow at 7% and above hereafter. Hence, appropriate strategies and economic policies of the Government of Bangladesh create a defendable position that safeguards the country's economic condition.

Forecast and Analysis of National GDP in China Based on ARIMA Model

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator to measure the economic situation and development level of a country or region, which is of great significance in promoting steady economic development. Therefore, this paper selects the national GDP data from 1978 to 2019, uses Eviews 9.0 software to build a model for the selected time series, and finally determines ARIMA (1, 1, 1) as the optimal model, and forecasts and analyzes the national GDP in 2020 and 2021. The prediction results show that the gap between the predicted GDP in 2020 and 2021 and the actual value is small. Therefore, ARIMA model can better reflect the development trend and short-term forecast of national GDP.

Areas for developing the relations between the countries of the European Union in conditions of growing economic inequality and transition to a New Industrial Strategy for Europe

Subject. The article addresses prospects for economic interaction of the countries of the European Union (EU). Objectives. The aim is to analyze individual economic indicators of the EU countries and explore the main directions of their relationship in the context of implementation of the New Industrial Strategy for Europe. Methods. The study employs historical-logical and dialectical principles, and the method of scientific abstraction. Results. I analyzed trends in gross domestic product, defined indices of the physical volume of GDP for 2016–2020. Using the economic and mathematical tools, I performed a forecast of these indicators, reviewed changes in exports of member countries of the European Union for 2016–2020. Conclusions. In the context of implementation of the New Industrial Strategy for Europe, economic entities will focus on sustainable growth, job creation, and innovation.

A Study on Regional GDP Forecasting Analysis Based on Radial Basis Function Neural Network with Genetic Algorithm (RBFNN-GA) for Shandong Economy.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator for determining a country's or region's economic status and development level, and it is closely linked to inflation, unemployment, and economic growth rates. These basic indicators can comprehensively and effectively reflect a country's or region's future economic development. The center of radial basis function neural network and smoothing factor to take a uniform distribution of the random radial basis function artificial neural network will be the focus of this study. This stochastic learning method is a useful addition to the existing methods for determining the center and smoothing factors of radial basis function neural networks, and it can also help the network more efficiently train. GDP forecasting is aided by the genetic algorithm radial basis neural network, which allows the government to make timely and effective macrocontrol plans based on the forecast trend of GDP in the region. This study uses the genetic algorithm radial basis, neural network model, to make judgments on the relationships contained in this sequence and compare and analyze the prediction effect and generalization ability of the model to verify the applicability of the genetic algorithm radial basis, neural network model, based on the modeling of historical data, which may contain linear and nonlinear relationships by itself, so this study uses the genetic algorithm radial basis, neural network model, to make, compare, and analyze judgments on the relationships contained in this sequence.

Impact of Social Capital on Environmental Governance Efficiency—Behavior of Guangdong, China

The main purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of social capital level on environmental governance efficiency in economically developed areas. We choose China’s richest province Guangdong. Compared with other Chinese provinces, Guangdong’s local governments are in better fiscal status, and they can allocate environmental spending in line with the trend of gross domestic product per capita. We want to observe the important factors related to social cognition other than capital investment to gain a more profound influence on the efficiency of local environmental governance. This article assumes that the degree of local social capital will have a great positive impact on the efficiency of regional environmental governance. Super-efficiency slacks-based measure method of data envelopment analysis is adopted to calculate the environmental governance efficiency by considering the expected output and the nonexpected output. Then, short-panel regression was used to analyze the relationship between social capital and environmental governance efficiency. Through an empirical analysis of urban panel data of Guangdong province from 2001 to 2019, it is found that the degree of social capital does have a significant positive impact on the efficiency of local environmental governance. After the research conclusion, we propose some policy suggestions to local governments.

Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019-related global recession on the financing of the global HIV response.

Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019-related global recession on the financing of the global HIV response.

СТРУКТУРНО-ДИНАМІЧНИЙ АНАЛІЗ СТАНУ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ ПРОМИСЛОВОСТІ З ПОЗИЦІЇ ЇХ БЕЗПЕЧНОГО РОЗВИТКУ

In the article the tendencies of development of the industrial branch are revealed. The dynamics of gross domestic product created by industrial enterprises is studied to establish their position in the structure of the national economy. It is proved that industry has a significant impact on the state’s economy, as this industry creates a large number of jobs, promotes the development of small and medium-sized businesses. The factors that determine the main trend of dynamics (increase or decrease of levels) are revealed. As well as factors that deviate levels from the trend. We observe that industrial enterprises are going through a difficult period due to difficult economic conditions, increasing competition in industries, the financial crisis, as well as the lack of real support from the state. Based on the logic of safe economic activity, the tendencies of changes in the financial result of industrial enterprises, in particular processing, are investigated and the degree of their safe functioning and development is revealed. When studying the trends in gross domestic product, their great importance in the structure of the national economy was found. The dynamics of expectations of industrial enterprises regarding the prospects of development of their business activity is characterized. It is established that the tendency to increase production actualizes the problem of improving management, first of all, financial results and in their composition – the profitability of operating activities. The trend of profitability of operating activity of industrial enterprises on the basis of phase-frequency Wallis-Moore criterion is estimated. Multidimensional, detailed analysis of the activities of industrial enterprises is a necessary element of the information system through which management and professionals have the opportunity to make adequate management decisions. The dynamics of expectations of the prospects for the development of their business activity shows that industries are experiencing a difficult period due to difficult economic conditions, increasing competition in industries, the financial crisis. It is expected that the proposals set out in the article will contribute to a partial solution to the problems of information security management of industrial enterprises.

Wybrane wskaźniki makroekonomiczne państw regionu Trójmorza, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem Łotwy, Polski i Rumunii, w świetle dokumentów Międzynarodowego Funduszu Walutowego

This article outlines the issue of the economic situation of Three Seas Initiative countries, based on reports and opinions of the International Monetary Fund. Latvia, Poland and Romania have been selected for detailed analysis. Statistical data for all Three Seas Initiative countries on the trends in gross domestic product (GDP), its value, consumption, inflation, unemployment rate, the general government fiscal balance, the general government gross debt, as well as foreign debt are presented in the tables. The final part of the article includes data on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP in all countries of the region.

Influence of the level of development of the digital environment on the trend of gross domestic product in the countries of the European Union

The paper characterizes the specifics of the impact of digitalization processes on such an indicator as GDP per capita: case study of the European Union countries. The literature dedicated to the matters of the relationship between digitalization and economic growth is reviewed. Based on the statistical data, a regression model is built to determine the dependencies between the GDP of European Union member countries and the economic digitalization indicators. An equation formed in the research can be used to demonstrate the dependence between GDP per capita and the accessibility of information and communications technology and its usage by organizations, households, and private persons in the territory of the European Union. According to the result obtained, the following possible options were formulated for the development of the European Union economies concerning digitalization: stimulating the introduction of information and communications technology in enterprises (including tax incentives for the firms involved in entrepreneurial digital development, as well as growing investments in the existing assets), households (increasing trust of the population in digital products; increasing human capital, which is highly demanded by the digital economy; prospects of the electronic postal trade system); focus on the export of high-tech products.

Life Expectancy, Public Health Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The paper examines the link between life expectancy, public health spending and economic development in Nigeria for the period 1995 to 2017. Data used were life expectancy at birth, public health expenditure and the gross domestic product (GDP) sourced from the World Bank data. Situational analysis, Ordinary Least Square and the granger causality test techniques were employed. The situational analysis showed that the trend of GDP and expectancy were upward while health expenditure had an irregular trend. The OLS result showed that both government spending on health and life expectancy impacted positively and significant on GDP. The granger causality result showed a unidirectional relationship between life expectancy and GDP as causality runs from GDP to life expectancy. Bidirectional relationship exists between life expectancy and health care spending while there was no causality between health expenditure and GDP. The study therefore recommends that government should increase spending on health so as to improve the health status of individuals in terms of their life expectancy. This will in turn lead to an increase in productivity and help increase the country’s national income so as to prepare the nation for the attainment of sustainable development, come 2030.

Contribution of Agricultural Sector and Sub Sectors on Indonesian Economy

This research aimed to analyze trend of agricultural GDP and agricultural contribution in Indonesia, and identify the role of agricultural sector and sub sectors in provinces of Indonesia. Source of data this research use linear trend analysis to analyze trend agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and agricultural contribution. Location Quotient (LQ), Dynamic Location Quotient (DLQ), and combination LQ and DLQ is used to identify the role of agricultural sector and sub sectors. The analysis found that agricultural GDP in Indonesia has increasing trend while agricultural contribution has decreasing trend. Agricultural sector is basic sector in 29 provinces in Indonesia. Farm food crop is leading sub sector in 6 provinces, farm non food crops is leading sub sector in 14 provinces, livestock is leading sub sector in 3 provinces, forestry is leading sub sector in 1 provinces, fishery is leading sub sector in 5 provinces.

VAR Analysis of Economic Growth, Domestic Investment, Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Savings and Trade in Rwanda

This paper analyses real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Domestic Investment (DI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Domestic Savings (DS) and Trade (TR) in Rwanda for the period 1970 to 2011. GDP and DI have an upward trend and annual growth of real GDP was around 8% in average for all period. FDI and DS have remained below 2% of GDP each and trade balance of Rwanda is always negative. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests show that GDP, DI and FDI are not stationary at the level but the first differences are stationary. VAR (1) was identified as the appropriate model according to Akaike information criterion, Schwarz information criterion and Hannan-Quinn information criterion. Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional causality between GDP and TR and TR and DI and unidirectional causality from GDP to DI, from DS to GDP, from DS to DI and from DS to TR. These findings show that GDP can be used to promote Domestic Investment and Trade. Domestic savings have significant effects on GDP, DI and TR. VAR was estimated and the forecasted values of GDP, DI and FDI in 2011 are respectively, 3,843.6233 million, 22.67% and 0.95% while their actual values in 2011 are 3891.9million, 22.7% and 1.66%. There is under-prediction for GDP, DI and FDI. The differences can be explained by the efforts of the Government of Rwanda to promote GDP, Domestic Investment and Foreign Direct Investment.

Income inequality and population health: An analysis of panel data for 21 developed countries, 1975–2006

The relative income–health hypothesis postulates that income distribution is an important determinant of population health, but the age and sex patterns of this association are not well known. We tested the relative income–health hypothesis using panel data collected for 21 developed countries over 30 years. Net of trends in gross domestic product per head and unobserved period and country factors, income inequality measured by the Gini index is positively associated with the mortality of males and females at ages 1–14 and 15–49, and with the mortality of females at ages 65–89 albeit less strongly than for the younger age groups. These findings suggest that policies to decrease income inequality may improve health, especially that of children and young-to-middle-aged men and women. The mechanisms behind the income inequality–mortality association remain unknown and should be the focus of future research.

Sulfur dioxide emissions and per capita income: a disaggregation of the effects of long-run and short-run income growth

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the links between growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and sulfur dioxide emissions by disaggregating income growth into long-term growth (the trend of GDP over time) and short-term growth (income fluctuations around the trend). Results indicate a substantial fixed component of sulfur dioxide emissions. Once income fluctuations are controlled for, the effect of changes in the scale of the economy over time can be distinguished from the effects of the changing composition of output and the state of technological development. Results indicate that at low levels of income, the composition and technology effects are associated with an increase in emissions; for high levels of income, the composition and technology effects are associated with a leveling off of emissions.

Trends in Gross Domestic Product and Self-Employment of Unincorporated Enterprises in the Canadian Economy, 1987 to 2005

This paper investigates the evolution of the unincorporated sector using the number of self-employed and gross domestic product (GDP), in that sector over the period 1987 to 2005. In 2005, there were over 1.5 million self-employed who were unincorporated, generating $93.2 billion of GDP.From 1987 to 1997, the growth of unincorporated GDP averaged 4.7% per year, following a similar trend to that of corporate GDP, at 4.5% per year. From 1997 to 2005, unincorporated GDP grew at a slower rate, averaging 3.8% per year, than that of corporate GDP, which averaged 6.4% per year. The unincorporated self-employed created most of the jobs in the business sector during most of the 1990s, creating 409,400 jobs from 1990 to 1998. However, job creation in the unincorporated sector peaked in 1998, and then declined by 128,400 jobs from 1998 to 2005. GDP shares of unincorporated enterprises showed a substantial structural shift toward service industries. Service industries have grown from 67.8% of GDP in 1987, to 76.5% of unincorporated GDP in 2005. Similarly, the share of total unincorporated self-employment in service industries increased from 63.4% in 1987 to 74.6% in 2005.Self-employment studies have analyzed various characteristics of self-employed workers, including age, sex, immigration status and education, but have generally lacked measures of GDP associated with unincorporated self-employment. This study redresses the lack of economic data, and estimates GDP by industry arising from unincorporated self-employment. This paper updates the 1997 - 2002 estimates of unincorporated GDP derived by Rispoli (2009). The paper also examines how unincorporated self-employment responded to both overall economic trends and business cycles. The rate of unincorporated self-employment was positively correlated to the unemployment rate in the long run. The paper also looks at incorporated self-employment. (Close to one million self-employed were incorporated in 2005). It investigates its relationship to the same macroeconomic conditions to determine if incorporated self-employment has a profile similar to unincorporated self-employment. Previous self-employment studies have typically treated self-employment as a homogeneous group. This paper examines the differences between the two groups and finds that they react differently to macroeconomic conditions. Incorporated self-employment grew substantially between 1987 and 1999 (averaging 3.8% per year), and continued to grow between 2000 and 2005 (averaging 4.1% per year). The evidence suggests that a shift in self-employment did not occur from unincorporated enterprises to corporations, but that different forces were at work in the two sectors. Over the long run, the unincorporated self-employment rate is positively correlated to the unemployment rate. In contrast, the incorporated self-employment rate is not related to changes in the unemployment rate, but is positively correlated to overall GDP growth.

Entrepreneurship and productivity: The slow growth of the planned economies

Trends in gross domestic product (GDP) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the former socialist economies seem to indicate that these economies were converging to unusually low long-run growth rates in the late 1980s. In this paper we develop an endogenous growth model of entrepreneurship that is able to account for the difference in long-run performance between centrally planned economies and market-oriented ones. Long-run growth rates of output and productivity are determined by the growth of the stock of managerial knowledge, which in turn depends on the share of the population involved in entrepreneurial activities and on the time that spent on those activities. We analyze the effect of two characteristics of centrally planned economies on their growth performance. First, in centrally planned economies factors of production are distributed by the central planner to the firms' managers through a contest that uses up some of the managers' productive effort. Second, the leadership is “egalitarian,” in the sense that it treats individuals with different abilities equally. We show that these two features reduce the fraction of people becoming entrepreneurs/managers, as well as their managerial effort, which in turn reduces long-run output and TFP growth. Furthermore, we find that centrally planned economies have lower income inequality and slightly higher capital–output ratios, which is consistent with these countries' experiences.