Trends In Lung Cancer Incidence Research Articles

A calibrated model for lung cancer natural history: the case for New Zealand

ABSTRACT A microsimulation model is an ideal tool to evaluate the impact of the new health screening programme. Health policymakers in New Zealand are reviewing international evidence on lung cancer screening with the aim of reducing lung cancer mortality through early detection. In this study, we developed and calibrated a New Zealand specific microsimulation model for the natural history of lung cancer. This is the first time a lung cancer microsimulation model has been developed for New Zealand. We adapted simulation steps devised for the MIcrosimulation Lung Cancer (MILC) model (Chrysanthopoulou, 2017). The simulation steps include a Gompertz tumour growth component, disease progression based on log-normal distributions and a survival component. Simulated lung cancer rates at different disease stages (i.e. local, regional, and distant) and at diagnosis were used to calibrate and validate model parameters to data from the New Zealand (NZ) lung cancer registry. We used the Bayesian approach to calibrate the model parameters using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) approach, which is not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling. The calibrated model was able to predict general trends in lung cancer incidence by age group when compared to lung cancer incidence in NZ.

Lung cancer incidence and mortality in trend and prediction between 2012-2030 in Shandong Province, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model

ObjectivesLung cancer is one of the most common cancers in Shandong Province, China. Projecting future cancer trend is crucial for planning cancer control. We aimed to examine the trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2012 to 2023, and predict the lung cancer burden to 2030 in Shandong.MethodsData of lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2012 to 2023 were obtained from the Shandong Cancer Registries. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify the trend of the lung cancer age-standardised rate using Joinpoint software. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2030.ResultsThe age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) remained stable from 2012 to 2023. The ASIR in males decreased with an AAPC of -1.350%, while the ASIR in females increased with an AAPC of 2.429%. The age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased with an AAPC of -2.911%. This trend was also observed in males (AAPC=-2.513%), females (AAPC=-3.632%), urban areas (AAPC=-3.267%) and rural areas (AAPC=-2.603%). For our predictions, the ASIR will increase to 49.21 per 100,000 until 2030, with an AAPC of 1.873%. This upward trend is expected for females and urban areas, with an AAPC of 4.496% and 4.176%, while it is not observed for males and rural areas. The ASMR is expected to remain stable up to 2030, and this trend will maintain both in males and females. The ASMR will exhibit an upward trend (AAPC=1.100%) in urban areas and a downward trend (AAPC=-0.915%) in rural areas.ConclusionThe ASIR of lung cancer will increase until 2030, while the ASMR of lung cancer is expected to remain stable in Shandong. It is necessary to take further preventive measures such as strengthening tobacco control, enhancing health education and expanding screening efforts.

Sex-based differences in histologic lung cancer incidence trends in the United States, 2005-2019.

Decreases in lung cancer incidence in the United States (US) have paralleled decreasing smoking prevalence for several decades; however, recent data has revealed slower declines among females than males. Sex-based differences in histologic lung cancer-and specifically adenocarcinoma-for all 50 US states and the District of Columbia have never been investigated. Using population-based cancer registry data from the US Cancer Statistics, we examined age-adjusted histologic lung cancer incidence rates and trends by sex and state of residence at diagnosis. We compared state-level adenocarcinoma incidence to lung cancer screening (LCS) adherence and smoking prevalence estimates. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were used to assess changes over time. Nationally, females experienced faster increases in adenocarcinoma incidence than males (1.75%/year vs. 0.35%/year), and slower decreases in incidence of squamous cell (-0.06%/year vs. -1.58%/year) and small cell carcinoma (-2.06%/year vs. -3.19%/year). Adenocarcinoma incidence increased significantly (AAPC>0) in 41 states among females compared to 10 among males. Significant adenocarcinoma increases in individuals under age 55 (IRR >1) occurred among females in six states (four in the southeastern US) and none among males. State-level LCS adherence was significantly associated with adenocarcinoma incidence among females (r = 0.39; p<.01) but not males, though screening cannot account for increases among females under age 55. Our results highlight sex-based differences in histologic lung cancer incidence trends, with specific concern for increases in adenocarcinoma in the southeastern US. Further research is needed into appropriate LCS eligibility criteria and the risk factors driving sex-based disparities.

P3.01D.02 Lung Cancer Incidence Trends by Histology and Sociodemographic Characteristics in the US from 2000-2019

P3.01D.02 Lung Cancer Incidence Trends by Histology and Sociodemographic Characteristics in the US from 2000-2019

Abstract A010: Evaluating the aftermath of two major hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic on lung cancer Incidence in Puerto Rico: An interrupted time-series analysis

Abstract Background - In recent years, events like hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly impacted the daily lives and the healthcare system in Puerto Rico (PR). We aimed to evaluate the effect of these disruptions on lung cancer incidence. Methods - An interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) was conducted to assess the impact of hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic on lung cancer incidence trends. To achieve this, the data was modeled using first-order autoregression through Prais-Winsten AR(1) regression. Monthly lung cancer cases from 2012 to 2021 were obtained from the PR Central Cancer Registry database. The analysis was divided into three periods: 1) pre-hurricanes (January 2012-August 2017), 2) post-hurricanes (September 2017-March 2020), and 3) onset of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions (April 2020-December 2021). Additionally, we measured the impact of the events by comparing the change in cases with the expected cases in the absence of the disruptions. Results - A steady trend was observed in monthly overall lung cancer cases during the pre-hurricane period. Immediately after the two major hurricanes, there was an immediate decrease of 10.2 cases, representing a 16.1% decline compared to the expected lung cancer cases. During the post-hurricanes period, lung cancer cases exhibited a significant upward trend, eventually surpassing the expected number. However, another decline in lung cancer cases was observed with the onset of the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, representing a 22.9% decline compared to the expected cases. This decline was followed by a significant upward trend of 0.67 cases per month until the end of 2021, once again surpassing the expected number of cases. Similar patterns were observed by age group and for late-stage cases. However, early-stage lung cancer showed a higher percentage difference at the start of the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions compared to the other groups and did not surpass the expected number of cases by the end of the study. Conclusion - Our results demonstrate the impact of hurricanes and the COVID-19 lockdown on lung cancer incidence in PR. These disruptions led to limited access to healthcare, particularly diagnostic and screening services, as evidenced by the decrease in lung cancer cases. Although lung cancer cases gradually returned to the expected levels in the absence of disruptions, the long-term effects of delayed diagnoses due to these events should be closely monitored. Citation Format: Tonatiuh Suárez-Ramos, Carlos Torres-Cintrón, Yisel Pagán-Santana. Evaluating the aftermath of two major hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic on lung cancer Incidence in Puerto Rico: An interrupted time-series analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 17th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2024 Sep 21-24; Los Angeles, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024;33(9 Suppl):Abstract nr A010.

Trends in lung cancer incidence in Iraq during the period 2005-2019

Lung cancer, a prominent global malignancy and a significant contributor to cancer-related deaths, was examined in Iraq from 2005 to 2019 using data from the cancer registry. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), categorized by sex and age at diagnosis, were analyzed to identify trends, utilizing annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). During the 2005-2019 period, ASIR was 18.339/100,000 for males and 5.861/100,000 for females. Lung cancer ASIR experienced a notable 48.027% increase, starting at 9.426/100,000 in 2005 and reaching 13.953/100,000 in the most recent year. The rates demonstrated significant growth, with AAPC values of +2.857% for both sexes, +2.495% for males, and +4.474% for females. The highest incidences of lung cancer were among the elderly (70+ years) in both sexes, particularly pronounced in females (8.961%) and males (5.601%). In contrast, the lowest rates were found in individuals aged 0 to 49 years, showing negative APC values: -1.359% (males) and -0.843% (females). The study underscores the escalating prevalence of lung cancer in Iraq, particularly impacting older females. Urgent and targeted efforts are necessary to mitigate the rising incidence rates.

Lung cancer: a nationwide analysis of sex and age incidence trends from 1980 to 2022.

Lung cancer, once rare, has evolved into the global leading cause of cancer-related mortality, primarily driven by widespread cigarette smoking in the 20th century. This study explores the historical trends of lung cancer incidence in Denmark over four decades, emphasizing the impact of smoking prevalence, age, and gender on the observed patterns. Drawing upon data from the Danish National Patient Register and information on smoking habits provided by the Danish Health Authority, this study investigates lung cancer incidence rates, demographic shifts, and smoking prevalence from 1980 to 2022. Smoking prevalence exhibited a consistent decline in males from 1950 to 2022, whereas female smoking prevalence maintained a stable level from 1950 to 1987, followed by a subsequent decline from 1987 to 2022. A peak in lung cancer crude incidence rates was identified during 2014-2017, with no significant difference observed before and after this period. Over the period, the gender distribution transitioned from a male majority to an equal male-female ratio, and age-specific disparities indicated declines in patients aged 50-59 and increases in those above 80 years. The certainty of a decline in lung cancer incidence in the coming years remains unclear. Based on smoking prevalence, it might still be a decade away. To ensure a sustained decline in lung cancer incidence, targeted interventions are imperative, including customized smoking cessation programs that could be designed favorably for females. Given the modest decline in smoking prevalence over the last decade, legislation aimed at discouraging young individuals from smoking is pivotal. As of now, these efforts have not been implemented in Denmark.

Trends in lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019): insights from Global Burden of Diseases data.

This study examines lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019) through age-period-cohort (A-P-C) analysis and Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data, unravelling the complex interplay of age, period, and birth cohort in shaping these trends. Utilizing GBD and Spanish population data, the study calculates age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and employs Joinpoint analysis to identify significant trends. A-P-C analysis dissects the individual effects of age, calendar period, and birth cohort on incidence patterns. Between 1990 and 2019, almost 738,000 cases of lung cancer were diagnosed in Spain, with an average annual increase of 1.7%. The ASIR of lung cancer in Spain from 1990 to 2019 showed a sustained upward trend in women (Average Annual Per cent Change: 2.5%, P < 0.05), reaching 23.3 cases per 100,000 in 2019, whilst men experienced a significant decrease in incidence rates (AAPC: -0.6%, P < 0.05), falling to 108.9 in 2019. The male-to-female incidence ratio decreased from 12.2 in 1992 to 4.9 in 2019. Joinpoint analysis identified distinct periods for both sexes, with men showing stability, decline and then a significant decrease, whereas women showed an initial increase followed by a decrease. The longitudinal age curves showed a consistently higher incidence risk in men, peaking in the 80-84 age group. Male cohorts since the 1920s showed a decreasing relative risk, whereas women showed fluctuations in risk over time. Lung cancer rates are falling in Spain, especially amongst men, due to lower smoking rates. The gender gap is closing, but prevention targeted at women is needed. Tighter tobacco control and research into other risk factors are essential. Understanding the long-term effects of smoking and early exposure is key to better prevention and treatment in Spain.

Cancer registration in Iceland for 70 years - incidence, mortality and survival

The Icelandic Cancer Registry (ICR) was founded seventy years ago by the Icelandic Cancer Society. In 2007 the ICR became one of the health registers of the Directorate of Health. In this paper we present cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in Iceland over 70 years. The ICR receives information on cancer diagnoses from histopathological laboratories, the Hospital Discharge Registry and the Cause of Death Registry. Iceland participates in the Nordic cancer database NORDCAN. Because of the small population size, random variation in numbers is very prominent. Therefore, data from ICR are published as five-year averages. For all malignancies combined, age-standardized incidence (ASI) in men rose steadily until around 15 years ago when a decline started. This is in line with prostate- and lung cancer incidence trends. In women, the ASI was lower than in men, but it is still on the rise despite declining lung cancer incidence. ASI for breast cancer, the most common cancer in women, is increasing. Simultaneously, cancer mortality for both sexes has declined in recent years and cancer survival is improving. Population-based cancer registration for over 70 years makes it possible to monitor the epidemiology of cancer in Iceland and compare with other countries. The changes in trends in ASI are in line with changes of cancer risk factors and diagnostic policy. The decline in cancer mortality and improvement in survival reflects advances in cancer treatment as well as effects of early detection and prevention.

Patterns and trends in incidence, survival, and treatment among patients with early-onset lung cancer in the U.S.: A population-based study.

e22517 Background: Lung cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths among young adults. An in-depth investigation into the demographic distribution and temporal trends in early-onset lung cancer (EOLC) incidence and survival, as well as treatment patterns, could help monitor the cancer burden, identify high-risk populations, and develop effective screening and prevention strategies. Methods: This serial cross-sectional study used data from the U.S. Cancer Statistics (USCS) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. EOLC refers to lung cancer diagnosed in individuals aged 20-49 years. USCS database (2001-2019) was used for demographic description and incidence estimation. SEER-17 registries database (2000-2019) was used for survival estimation and treatment patterns examination. Age-adjusted incidence rate per 100,000 population and cancer-specific survival were reported. Changes in rates were assessed with average annual percentage change (AAPC) using Joinpoint regression. Results: There were 4,086,435 lung cancer cases recorded between 2001 and 2019 in the U.S. (USCS: 53.3% male; median age of 70 years). EOLC accounted for 4.1% (169,132) of all lung cancer cases and was more common among females, non-Whites, with higher adenocarcinoma and advanced-stage diagnoses. During this period, the incidence of EOLC decreased from 9.0 to 4.5 per 100,000 population (APC, -4.2; P &lt; 0.001). EOLC incidence continued to decrease across all demographic groups, except for young people aged 20-29. The rate of decline was faster among men than women, blacks than whites, squamous carcinoma than adenocarcinoma, and distant disease than localized disease. The historical higher incidence among young men vs. young women and among blacks vs. whites have been reversed in recent years. A consistent increase in survival rates of EOLC across all demographic groups from 2001 to 2017 (SEER-17) was observed. Despite the increases were more pronounced among men than women and among black individuals than white individuals, gender and racial disparities persisted. EOLC patients received more intensive treatment than late-onset patients. Still, 12.1% of EOLC cases were not treated, and this was most common among black individuals and those with distant disease. Treatment patterns for EOLC have not undergone significant changes in recent decades. Of note, the proportion of untreated patients has not decreased during the study period. Conclusions: EOLC was an uncommon type of disease with distinctive clinical features in the U.S. Substantial decreases in incidence and improves in survival were observed, whereas major treatment pattern remained relatively stable.

Long-term trends of lung cancer incidence and survival in southeastern China, 2011–2020: a population-based study

BackgroundLung cancer is the primary cause of cancer-related deaths in China. This study analysed the incidence and survival trends of lung cancer from 2011 to 2020 in Fujian Province, southeast of China, and provided basis for formulating prevention and treatment strategies.MethodsThe population-based cancer data was used to analyse the incidence of lung cancer between 2011 and 2020, which were stratified by sex, age and histology. The change of incidence trend was analysed using Joinpoint regression. The relative survival of lung cancer with onset in 2011–2014, 2015–2017 and 2018–2020 were calculated using the cohort, complete and period methods, respectively.ResultsThere were 23,043 patients diagnosed with lung cancer in seven registries between 2011 and 2020, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 37.7/100,000. The males ASIR increased from 51.1/100,000 to 60.5/100,000 with an annual percentage change (APC) of 1.5%. However, females ASIR increased faster than males, with an APC of 5.7% in 2011–2017 and 21.0% in 2017–2020. Compared with 2011, the average onset age of males and females in 2020 was 1.5 years and 5.9 years earlier, respectively. Moreover, the proportion of adenocarcinoma has increased, while squamous cell carcinoma and small cell carcinoma have decreased over the past decade. The 5-year relative survival of lung cancer increased from 13.8 to 23.7%, with a greater average increase in females than males (8.7% and 2.6%). The 5-year relative survival of adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma and small cell carcinoma reached 47.1%, 18.3% and 6.9% in 2018–2020, respectively.ConclusionsThe incidence of lung cancer in Fujian Province is on the rise, with a significant rise in adenocarcinoma, a younger age of onset and the possibility of overdiagnosis. Thus, Fujian Province should strengthen the prevention and control of lung cancer, giving more attention to the prevention and treatment of lung cancer in females and young populations.

Trend Analysis of Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Xiamen (2011-2020).

To analyze the trends of lung cancer incidence and mortality in Xiamen from 2011 to 2020 and provide some clues for the lung cancer prevention and control. The data was obtained from the Xiamen City Cancer Register in Fujian Province, China. The data was updated on Sep 30, 2023. The codes of C33-C34 were used to identify the lung cancer. The newly diagnosed lung cancer patients during the period of 2011-2020 in Xiamen City were included in the evaluation of incidence and mortality and Cox analysis. A total of 11408 lung cancer patients were enrolled. The crude incidence rate was 52.78 per 100000 and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIWR) was 40.67 per 100000 from 2011 to 2020. Both the crude incidence rate of lung cancer (AAPC =5.92, P value <0.001) and ASIWR (AAPC = 4.93, P value <0.001) showed increasing trends. The crude incidence rate in female increased 4.90 times faster as that in male (AAPC: 12.34/2.52). The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMWR) were 37.25 per 100000 and 28.30 per100000. The 5-year age-standardized relative survival rate (ARS) was 18.62% (95% CI: 17.63-19.67%). The 5-year ARS was higher in women than men (26.35% vs 15.28%) and higher in urban than rural areas (21.44% vs 11.96%). Patients with lower education levels had significantly lower ARS than those with higher education (14.66% vs 31.53%). The 5-year ARS improved notably from 2016-2020 compared to 2011-2015 (22.23% vs 13.21%). Farmers had the lowest ARS among occupations [13.34% (95% CI:11.93-14.92%)]. There were all increasing trends in 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year ARS rates between 2011 and 2020 (all P values of AAPC<0.05). Lung cancer incidence in Xiamen increased, while mortality decreased with improved survival. Developing more perfect need to consider the differences in the social environment and other factors.

Changing trends in disease burden of lung cancer in China from 1990-2019 and following 15-year prediction

BackgroundAs lung cancer becomes a primary source of death in China, investigation on incidence rate, death rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is of great significance to optimize prevention measures and allocation of healthcare resources. MethodsWe utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to evaluate the incidence rate, death rate, and DALYs of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. Analysis of lung cancer risk factor-related death rate and DALYs was performed. Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated. The incidence trend of lung cancer from 2020 to 2034 was predicted by the Nordpred age-period-cohort (APC) model. ResultsAge-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 30.2/100000 (95 % UI 26.2–34.3) in 1990 to 41.7/100000 (95 % UI 35.2–48.8) in 2019, and EAPC was 1.33 (95 % CI 1.16–1.49). From 1990 to 2019, men were noted for the highest incidence rate, death rate, and DALYs rate across three age groups (15–49 years, 50–69 years, and over 70). During this period, the ASIR of lung cancer in females was always lower than that in males. The predominant risk factors of lung cancer were smoking, air pollution, and diet, among which smoking was the most significant one. The analysis results showed that new cases and deaths may increase in the following 15 years since 2020 in the context of lung cancer. ConclusionFaced with the heavy burden of lung cancer, China must issue corresponding policies and roll out prevention avenues against smoking and air pollution.

EP17.04-08 Changing Lung Cancer Incidence Trends and Risk Patterns Among Asian Americans in Los Angeles County, California, USA

EP17.04-08 Changing Lung Cancer Incidence Trends and Risk Patterns Among Asian Americans in Los Angeles County, California, USA

Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality (1990-2019) in the United States: A Comprehensive Analysis of Gender and State-Level Disparities.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States. This study aims to analyze lung cancer incidence, mortality, and related statistics from 1990 to 2019, focusing on national- and state-level trends and exploring potential disparities between sexes. The Global Burden of Disease database was used to extract tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer mortality data from 1990 to 2019 for both males and females and across all states of the United States. Age-standardized incidence rates, age-standardized mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality-to-incidence indices (MIIs) were studied to assess for gender-based, geographic, and temporal disparities. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to further evaluate trends. The incidence of these cancers in the United States decreased between 1990 and 2019 by 23.35%, with a more significant decline in males (37.73%) than females (1.41%). Similarly, for mortality, a decrease was observed for both sexes combined (26.83%), but much more significantly for males (40.23%) than females (6.01%). The MIIs decreased overall, but there were variations across states. DALYs decreased for both sexes combined, with males experiencing a larger reduction, but an increase was noted in some states for females. This analysis reveals diverse trends pertaining to the incidence, mortality, and disability burden associated with lung cancer by sex and states in the United States, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to reduce disparities. These findings contribute to our understanding of the current landscape of lung cancer and can inform future strategies for prevention, early detection, and management.

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer in Kazakhstan: Trends and Geographic Distribution.

The aim is to study the trends of lung cancer (LC) incidence in the regional context in Kazakhstan. The retrospective study was done using descriptive and analytical methods of oncoepidemiology. The extensive, crude and age-specific incidence rates are determined according to the generally accepted methodology used in sanitary statistics. The data were used to calculate the average percentage change (APС) using the Joinpoint regression analysis to determine the trend over the study period. Over the 10 years under study, 36,916 new cases of LC were registered in the country (80.5% - in men and 19.5% - in women). During the studied years the average age of patients was 64.2±0.1 years (95%CI=63.9-64.4). The highest incidence rates per 100,000 in the entire population were found in the age groups 65-69 years (147.6±2.7), 70-74 years (159.3±2.5), and 75-79 years (147.1±3.2). The incidence of LC tended to increase only at the age of 80-84 years (APC=+1.26) and the most pronounced average annual decline rates were observed in the age groups of 45-49 years (APC=-4.09), 50-54 years (APC=-4.20) and 85+ years (APC=-4.07). The average annual standardized incidence rate was 22.2 per 100,000, and in dynamics tended to decrease (APC=-2.04). There is a decrease in incidence in almost all regions, with the exception of the Mangystau region (APC=+1.65). During the compilation of cartograms, incidence rates were determined on the basis of standardized indicators: low - up to 20.6, average - from 20.6 to 25.6, high - above 25.6 per 100,000 for the entire population. The incidence of lung cancer in Kazakhstan is decreasing. The incidence among the male population is six times higher than among the female, while the rate of decline is more pronounced. The incidence tends to decrease in almost all regions. High rates were found in the northern and eastern regions.

Incidence Trend of Lung Cancer in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Context: Lung cancer (LC) is one of the common diseases in the pulmonary system, which is defined as the uncontrolled growth of cells in the lung tissue. Objectives: The present investigation was conducted with the aim of the prevalence of LC in Iran by meta-analysis method. Methods: In this meta-analysis study, the articles that were conducted to determine age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) in the field of LC were included in the study. The inclusion criteria included determining the number of ASRs in Iranian LC patients, reporting the sample size in men and women groups, and publishing articles between 2000 and January 2023. Data were analyzed, using CMA software. Results: In this meta-analysis study, 889 articles were found in the initial search, and after the final search, 23 articles were included in the meta-analysis stage. Out of the 22 final articles, the prevalence of LC was 3.7% (95% CI, 2.6 - 5.3) in women and 7.1% (95% CI, 5.7 - 9) in males. Conclusions: Considering that the incidence rate of LC in this study was high, it is essential to carry out necessary preventive interventions in this field.

Gender-specific trends in cigarette smoking and lung cancer incidence: A two-stage age-stratified Bayesian joinpoint model

BackgroundPrevious studies have explored population-level smoking trends and the incidence of lung cancer, but none has jointly modeled them. This study modeled the relationship between smoking rate and incidence of lung cancer, by gender, in the U.S. adult population and estimated the lag time between changes in smoking trend and changes in incidence trends. MethodsThe annual total numbers of smokers, by gender, were obtained from the database of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) program of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for the years 1976 through 2018. The population-level incidence data for lung and bronchus cancers, by gender and five-year age group, were obtained for the same years from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database of the National Cancer Institute. A Bayesian joinpoint statistical model, assuming Poisson errors, was developed to explore the relationship between smoking and lung cancer incidence in the time trend. ResultsThe model estimates and predicts the rate of change of incidence in the time trend, adjusting for expected smoking rate in the population, age, and gender. It shows that smoking trend is a strong predictor of incidence trend and predicts that rates will be roughly equal for males and females in the year 2023, then the incidence rate for females will exceed that of males. In addition, the model estimates the lag time between smoking and incidence to be 8.079 years. ConclusionsBecause there is a three-year delay in reporting smoking related data and a four-year delay for incidence data, this model provides valuable predictions of smoking rate and associated lung cancer incidence before the data are available. By recognizing differing trends by gender, the model will inform gender specific aspects of public health policy related to tobacco use and its impact on lung cancer incidence.

Global burden and trends of lung cancer incidence and mortality.

Lung cancer has been the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide for many years. This study aimed to investigate the global patterns and trends of lung cancer. Lung cancer incidence and mortality were derived from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Continuous data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Time Trends were used to analyze the temporal trends from 2000 to 2012 using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent changes were calculated. The association between the Human Development Index and lung cancer incidence and mortality was assessed by linear regression. An estimated 2.2 million new lung cancer cases and 1.8 million lung cancer-related deaths occurred in 2020. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) ranged from 36.8 per 100,000 in Demark to 5.9 per 100,000 in Mexico. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) varied from 32.8 per 100,000 in Poland to 4.9 per 100,000 in Mexico. Both ASIR and ASMR were approximately twice higher in men than in women. The ASIR of lung cancer showed a downward trend in the United States of America (USA) between 2000 and 2012, and was more prominent in men. The age-specific incidence rates of lung cancer for ages of 50 to 59 years showed an upward trend in China for both men and women. The burden of lung cancer is still unsatisfactory, especially in developing countries like China. Considering the effectiveness of tobacco control and screening in developed countries, such as the USA, there is a need to strengthen health education, accelerate the establishment of tobacco control policies and regulations, and improve early cancer screening awareness to reduce the future burden of lung cancer.

Trends in Smoking-Specific Lung Cancer Incidence Rates Within a US Integrated Health System, 2007-2018

At least 10%of lung cancers arise in adults who have never used tobacco. Data remain inconclusive on whether lung cancer incidence has been increasing among adults who have never used tobacco. How have age-adjusted incidence rates of lung cancer changed temporally, especially among adults who have never used tobacco? Trends in lung cancer incidence were examined using linked electronic health record and cancer registry data on a dynamic cohort of adults≥ 30 years of age at risk of incident lung cancer between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2018, from an integrated health-care system in northern California. Truncated age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in rates were estimated, overall and separately for adults who have ever and never used tobacco by age, sex, and race or ethnicity. The cohort included 3,751,348 adults (52.5%female, 48.0%non-Hispanic White, 63.1%have never used tobacco), among whom 18,627 (52.7%female, 68.6%non-Hispanic White, 15.4%have never used tobacco) received a diagnosis of lung cancer. The overall lung cancer incidence rate declined from 91.1 to 63.7 per 100,000 person-years between 2007 and 2009 and between 2016 and 2018 (AAPC, -3.9%; 95%CI, -4.2%to -3.6%). Among adults who have ever used tobacco, incidence rates declined overall from 167.0 to 113.4 per 100,000 person-years (AAPC, -4.2%; 95%CI, -4.4%to -3.9%) and, to varying degrees, within all age, sex, and racial or ethnic groups. Among adults who have never used tobacco, incidence rates were relatively constant, with 3-year-period estimates ranging from 19.9 to 22.6 per 100,000 person-years (AAPC, 0.9%; 95%CI, -0.3%to 2.1%). Incidence rates for adults who have never used tobacco seemed stable over time, within age, sex, and racial or ethnic groups, except for those of Asian and Pacific Islander (API) origin (AAPC, 2.0%; 95%CI, 0.1%-3.9%), whose rates were about twice as high compared with their counterparts. These observed trends underscore the need to elucidate further the cause of lung cancer in adults who have never used tobacco, including why incidence is higher and rising in API adults who have never used tobacco.