Relative Sea Level Trends Research Articles

Two main highstands during the last interglacial: Insights from palaeoshorelines and marine terraced deposits along the Ionian coast of the Apulia region, southern Italy

AbstractField data, U‐Th dating and amino acid racemisation (AAR) and epimerisation (IAE) analyses were performed in a sector of the Ionian coast of Apulia. Palaeoshoreline 1 (PS1) was identified at +40 ± 5 m with the associated terraced deposit 1 (TD1). Palaeoshoreline 2 (PS2) was identified at +30 ± 2 m with the associated terraced deposit 2 (TD2), characterised by five sub‐units. The sub‐units that mark the transgression have an age of 127.851 ± 1.47 ky BP (by U‐Th dating) and 128.4 ± 26.2 ky BP (by AAR); one of sub‐units marking the highstand falls within aminozone E (MIS 5.5) based on IAE. Palaeoshoreline 3 (PS3) was identified at +19 ± 2 m with the associated terraced deposit 3 (TD3); they mark the occurrence of a second, lower elevation MIS 5.5 highstand. TD3 dates back to aminozones E–D (MIS 5.5‐MIS 5.3) based on IAE and to 122.49 ± 1.25 ky BP by U‐Th dating. We considered two scenarios where the first highstand of MIS 5.5 occurred at 125 and 123 ky BP, with a sea level at +7.5 ± 1.5 m; we then calculated the uplift rate of PS2 for both scenarios: it resulted to be 0.18 ± 0.03 mm/year. These uplift rates were used to calculate the position of PS3 at 122.49 ± 1.25 (rounded to ⁓122 ky BP) as well as the position of the layer dated to 127.851 ± 1.47 ky BP (rounded to ⁓128 ky BP). The position of PS3 at the time of its formation (i.e., the sea level at ⁓122 ky BP, corresponding to the second highstand of MIS 5.5) was calculated to be −2.96 ± 5.42 m for Scenario 1 and −3.32 ± 5.47 m for Scenario 2. The sea level obtained by the layer dated to ~128 ky BP was found to have a value of −11.79 ± 6.29 m. Finally, we reconstructed a relative sea level (RSL) trend suggesting two main highstands during MIS 5.5, with the earlier higher than the second.

Assessing vulnerability and enhancing resilience of port systems in southeast Texas facing sea-level rise

Climate change and the associated sea level rise (SLR) are presenting newfound challenges to the port systems and coastal transportation infrastructure of southeast Texas. This paper introduces a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based model designed to simulate inundation scenarios under various sea-level projections, aiming to assess the vulnerabilities of both port facilities and road networks. The study area encompasses a specific region within Jefferson County, southeast Texas, encompassing three major ports: Port Arthur, Beaumont, and Orange. Utilizing a high-resolution (1-m) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from the 2017 LiDAR dataset, this model is integrated with NASA’s sea-level rise projections to compute the extent and volume of inundation across low, medium, and high SLR scenarios. Drawing from monthly mean sea level data spanning from 1958 to 2020, the lowest SLR projections, derived from the relative sea-level trend measured at the Sabine Pass, TX gauge station, indicate a yearly increase of 6.16 mm, with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.74 mm. Projections for 2050 and 2,100 show the lowest SLR at 0.17 m and 0.48 m, respectively. In contrast, the medium to high RSLR projections under the IPCC SSP3-7.0 scenario for 2050 and 2,100 stand at 0.54 m and 1.34 m, respectively. The findings reveal that, under medium to high SLR scenarios, the extent of inundated areas in the study region is expected to expand by 12.4% in 2050 and 19.9% in 2,100, compared to the lowest SLR projection. Additionally, the length of submerged roadways is predicted to increase by 6.9% in 2050 and 13.3% in 2,100, in comparison to the lowest SLR projection. It is worth noting that some margin of error may be introduced due to factors such as the width of the port area and access roads, the high-resolution DEM, and the alignment of computed inundated areas with the existing topography. Overall, the manuscript highlights the urgency of proactive planning and underscores the importance of safeguarding critical infrastructure in the context of climate change and SLR.

Long-Term and Decadal Sea-Level Trends of the Baltic Sea Using Along-Track Satellite Altimetry

One of the main effects of climate change is rising sea levels, which presents challenges due to its geographically heterogenous nature. Often, contradictory results arise from examining different sources of measurement and time spans. This study addresses these issues by analysing both long-term (1995–2022) and decadal (2000–2009 and 2010–2019) sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea. Two independent sources of data, which consist of 13 tide gauge (TG) stations and multi-mission along-track satellite altimetry (SA), are utilized to calculate sea-level trends using the ordinary least-squares method. Given that the Baltic Sea is influenced by geographically varying vertical land motion (VLM), both relative sea level (RSL) and absolute sea level (ASL) trends were examined for the long-term assessment. The results for the long-term ASL show estimates for TG and SA to be 3.3 mm/yr and 3.9 mm/yr, respectively, indicating agreement between sources. Additionally, the comparison of long-term RSL ranges from −2 to 4.5 mm/yr, while ASL varies between 2 and 5.4 mm/yr, as expected due to the VLM. Spatial variation in long-term ASL trends is observed, with higher rates in the northern and eastern regions. Decadal sea-level trends show higher rates, particularly the decade 2000–2009. Comparison with other available sea-level datasets (gridded models) yields comparable results. Therefore, this study evaluates the ability of SA as a reliable source for determining reginal sea-level trends in comparison with TG data.

Fossil Java Sea corals record Laurentide ice sheet disappearance

Abstract The Laurentide ice sheet was the largest late Pleistocene ice mass and the largest contributor to Holocene pre-industrial sea-level rise. While glaciological dates suggest final ice sheet melting between 8 and 6 ka, inversion of sea-level data indicates deglaciation at ca. 7 ka. Here, we present new chronostratigraphic constraints on Laurentide ice sheet disappearance based on Holocene relative sea-level observations from the tectonically stable north coast of Java, Indonesia. Age-elevation data from the flat upper surfaces of 13 fossil intertidal corals (i.e., microatolls) indicate that the Java Sea experienced a relative sea level of 1.3 ± 0.7 m above present between 6.9 and 5.3 ka. To determine uncaptured relative sea-level trends within the observational uncertainties of this apparently constant highstand, we analyzed the internal structure of three sliced microatolls from the same site to produce a high-resolution data set. These data were used to statistically model relative sea-level rates and trends. Employing the data with the model provided evidence for a short-lived rise of relative sea level from 1.0 ± 0.3 m above present at 6.7 ± 0.1 ka to 1.9 ± 0.3 m above present at 6.4 ± 0.1 ka. The end of this rise likely represents the last input of meltwater from the vast Laurentide ice sheet, which, consequently, collapsed at least 400 yr later than assumed by some widely used models of glacial isostatic adjustment. Incorporating these new results into such predictive models will help to better understand the geographical variability of future sea-level rise as a result of global warming.

Relative Sea Level Trends for the Coastal Areas of Peninsular and East Malaysia Based on Remote and In Situ Observations

Absolute sea-level rise has become an important topic globally due to climate change. In addition, relative sea-level rise due to the vertical land motion in coastal areas can have a big societal impact. Vertical land motion (VLM) in Southeast Asia includes a tectonically induced component: uplift and subsidence in plate boundary zones where both Peninsular and East Malaysia are located. In this paper, the relative sea-level trends and (seismic cycle-induced) temporal changes across Malaysia were investigated. To do so, the data (1984–2019) from 21 tide gauges were analyzed, along with a subset (1994–2021) of nearby Malaysian GNSS stations. Changes in absolute sea level (ASL) at these locations (1992–2021) were also estimated from satellite altimetry data. As a first for Peninsular and East Malaysia, the combination ASL minus VLM was robustly used to validate relative sea-level rise from tide-gauge data and provide relative sea-level trend estimates based on a common data period of 25+ years. A good match between both the remote and in situ sea-level rise estimations was observed, especially for Peninsular Malaysia (differences < 1 mm/year), when split trends were estimated from the tide gauges and GNSS time series to distinguish between the different VLM regimes that exist due to the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman megathrust earthquake. As in the south of Thailand, post-seismic-induced negative VLM has increased relative sea-level rise by 2–3 mm/year along the Andaman Sea and Malacca Strait coastlines since 2005. For East Malaysia, the validation shows higher differences (bias of 2–3 mm/year), but this poorer match is significantly improved by either not including data after 1 January 2014 or applying a generic jump to all East Malay tide gauges from that date onwards. Overall, the present relative sea-level trends range from 4 to 6 mm/year for Malaysia with a few regions showing up to 9 mm/year due to human-induced land subsidence.

Within-region replication of late Holocene relative sea-level change: An example from southern New England, United States

Tide-gauge measurements in the western North Atlantic Ocean show coherent, multi-decadal relative sea-level (RSL) trends across multiple spatial scales. Proxy reconstructions developed from salt-marsh sediment can extend this instrumental record. However, the degree of coherence in proxy reconstructions is underexamined through within-region replication. To explore within-region replication, we developed a new RSL reconstruction from Fox Hill Marsh, Rhode Island to complement similar records at nearby sites. We established the elevation of former sea level from assemblages of foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values using a Bayesian transfer function. We employed radiocarbon dating and recognition of pollution horizons to construct a core chronology. Since ∼1200 BCE, RSL rose by ∼3.7 m at Fox Hill Marsh. After correction for glacial isostatic adjustment, application of a statistical model intended to quantify (multi-) century-scale trends showed that the fastest rate of rise in at least the past 3000 years was 1.71 ± 0.84 mm/yr (95% credible interval) in 2020 CE. This result replicates regional tide-gauge measurements and other proxy reconstructions. Using an alternative statistical model constructed to identify sub-centennial sea-level changes, we examined if there was a hotspot of 18th century rise in the northeastern United States and found no spatially-coherent trend (i.e., occurring at all or most sites). This lack of replication indicates that accelerated rise during the 18th century is likely local (site-specific) in scale, or an artifact of individual reconstructions. Continued efforts to replicate RSL reconstructions will increase confidence in the accuracy of records and their subsequent interpretation.

Relative sea-level change in South Florida during the past ~5000 years

A paucity of detailed relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions from low latitudes hinders efforts to understand the global, regional, and local processes that cause RSL change. We reconstruct RSL change during the past ~5 ka using cores of mangrove peat at two sites (Snipe Key and Swan Key) in the Florida Keys. Remote sensing and field surveys established the relationship between peat-forming mangroves and tidal elevation in South Florida. Core chronologies are developed from age-depth models applied to 72 radiocarbon dates (39 mangrove wood macrofossils and 33 fine-fraction bulk peat). RSL rose 3.7 m at Snipe Key and 5.0 m at Swan Key in the past 5 ka, with both sites recording the fastest century-scale rate of RSL rise since ~1900 CE (~2.1 mm/a). We demonstrate that it is feasible to produce near-continuous reconstructions of RSL from mangrove peat in regions with a microtidal regime and accommodation space created by millennial-scale RSL rise. Decomposition of RSL trends from a network of reconstructions across South Florida using a spatio-temporal model suggests that Snipe Key was representative of regional RSL trends, but Swan Key was influenced by an additional local-scale process acting over at least the past five millennia. Geotechnical analysis of modern and buried mangrove peat indicates that sediment compaction is not the local-scale process responsible for the exaggerated RSL rise at Swan Key. The substantial difference in RSL between two nearby sites highlights the critical need for within-region replication of RSL reconstructions to avoid misattribution of sea-level trends, which could also have implications for geophysical modeling studies using RSL data for model tuning and validation.

Estimation of vertical land motion along the south and west coast of Turkey from multi-sensor observations

This study aims to estimate Vertical Land Motion (VLM) using multi-sensor and in-situ data at the tide gauge stations (TG) located on the western and southern coasts of Turkey. The analysis of tide gauge data, used to determine sea level changes for centuries, was supported by modern global geodetic observations, and the effect of VLM on the sea level trend was determined. In this context, VLM was calculated from the relative sea level trends of eight TG's between 1998 and 2018 and the absolute sea level trends obtained from the CTOH Along-Track Sea Level Anomalies regional products (X-TRACK) and Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) improved altimetry data covering the same temporal period. GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) measurements give a solution of the point-wise information about VLM at TG's, whereas InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) solutions give spatial information about VLM that were calculated from Sentinel-1 data, which was put into service after 2014. The analyses carried out on Turkey's south and west coasts revealed an uplift trend at all TG's, whereas an insignificant subsidence trend was determined at the MNTS tide gauge station. When focusing on the MNTS station, in the period of 1998–2018 VLM from XTRACK minus TG and CMEMS minus TG were estimated as −0.7 ± 0.9 mm/yr and −0.5 ± 0.8 mm/yr, respectively and also during the period of 2014–2018 VLM from GNSS and InSAR were estimated as −0.6 ± 0.2 mm/yr and −0.3 ± 0.1 mm/yr, respectively.

Effects of Offsets and Outliers on the Sea Level Trend at Antalya 2 Tide Gauge within the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Antalya 2 tide gauge (TG) station is located on the coast of Turkey within the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Relative sea level trends 6.0 ± 1.5 and 6.44 ± 0.45 mm/year over 1985–2009 at Antalya 2 TG are different from the trend (1.6 ± 1.5 mm/year over 1935–1977) at Antalya TG within 10 km. In order to investigate this trend discrepancy, the monthly mean series at Antalya 2 TG is re-analyzed for offsets, outliers and trend estimation. The Zivot-Andrews method and the outlier test result in one offset at 1994.0417 year with magnitude of 71.24 ± 13.48 mm and nine outliers. The series, corrected for the offset and outliers, de-seasonalized and filled for missed points, is identified as trend-stationary process and analyzed for trend estimation by various models. The optimal model providing the lowest Akaike Information Criteria is polynomial linear trend with multiplicative seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA(2,0)x(1,0)12). The estimated relative sea level trend by the optimal model is 1.77 ± 0.65 mm/year. The large trend discrepancy at Antalya 2 TG is accounted for by one offset primarily (∼71%) and nine outliers (∼3%).

Evolution of sea-level trends along the Norwegian coast from 1960 to 2100

A first national analysis of the evolution of sea-level rates along the Norwegian coast for the period 1960–2100 has been accomplished by exploring tide-gauge records, relative sea-level projections, and detection techniques for acceleration. Firstly, sea-level rates for the two study periods 1960–2020 and 1991–2020 were estimated. Along the Norwegian coast, relative sea-level rates show significant spatial variation due to glacial isostatic adjustment. Moreover, the coastal average sea-level rate for the period 1991–2020 is significantly higher than for the period 1960–2020. Accelerations were then estimated for all combinations of start years and study periods longer than 30 years by including quadratic coefficients in regression models. It was found that the estimates strongly depend on the study period and do not provide confident estimates of climate change driven variation in the sea level along the Norwegian coast. Secondly, non-linear trends in relative sea level were reconstructed from Singular-Spectrum Analysis, which at several tide gauges revealed low rates in the 1970s, maximum rates around 1990, and declining rates thereafter. From the reconstructed trends, significant positive acceleration in the relative sea level was estimated for the period 1960–2020, while accelerations less than zero were detected for the period 1991–2020. However, the estimates for the recent period appear not robust due to the influence of decadal and multidecadal variation characterizing Norwegian tide-gauge records. Finally, by artificially extending the tide-gauge records by projections, the time when unprecedented high sea-level rates emerge was identified. With projections calculated for the intensive emission scenario RCP8.5, the climate signal of the relative sea level emerges at earliest in the late 2030s. The time of emergence is typically 5 to 10 years later if reanalysis of sea-level pressure and wind speed are used to reduce decadal variation in the tide-gauge records. This is because the meteorological regressors, as a side effect, introduce serial correlations that lead to rate estimates with enlarged standard errors. An important implication of the findings is that a possible absence of record high sea-level rates in the 2020s and 2030s does not falsify that relative sea level along the Norwegian coast is consistent with projections of RCP8.5.

Relative sea-level curve during the Holocene in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil: A review of the indicators - RSL, altimetric and geochronological data

A review of relative sea-level (RSL) oscillations during the Holocene in Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, is presented based on new data. This new data encompasses analytical techniques, altimetric corrections and age recalibrations, using the marine local radiocarbon reservoir correction of 96 ± 48 yrs. The effectiveness of geological and biological RSL indicators was tested, aiming to provide consistent information for future researches on the east coast of South America. Results confirm that RSL during Late Pleistocene - Holocene transition (11,970–11,122 cal yrs BP) was 4.5 m below Mean Sea-level (MSL). After that transition, a relatively rapid rise began. At approximately 7948–7598 cal yrs BP, the MSL was 0.5 m below the current marine level. Present-day, “zero”, was reached for the first time in the Holocene, at approximately 7686–7269 cal yrs BP. The maximum level of the Holocene marine transgression occurred around 4787 - 4104 cal yrs BP with a height of 3.0 m above MSL. At the point of maximum transgression, the sea-level began a general behavior of lowering. However, between 3981 and 3345 to 1852 - 1413 cal yrs BP, evidence from vermetids suggests several alternating periods of slow and rapid sea-level, identified by four oscillations. New records, between 1220 - 780 and 1055 - 665 cal yrs BP, have indicated a continue lowering trend of RSL.

Ocean mass, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion largely explain US coast relative sea level rise

Regional sea-level changes are caused by several physical processes that vary both in space and time. As a result of these processes, large regional departures from the long-term rate of global mean sea-level rise can occur. Identifying and understanding these processes at particular locations is the first step toward generating reliable projections and assisting in improved decision making. Here we quantify to what degree contemporary ocean mass change, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion influence sea-level rise observed by tide-gauge locations around the contiguous U.S. from 1993 to 2018. We are able to explain tide gauge-observed relative sea-level trends at 47 of 55 sampled locations. Locations where we cannot explain observed trends are potentially indicative of shortcomings in our coastal sea-level observational network or estimates of uncertainty.

Disentangling vertical land motion and waves from coastal sea level altimetry and tide gauges

In the context of global mean sea level rise, understanding the drivers of relative sea-level (RSL) at the coast is of major importance for coastal environments research and management. Since the 1990s, the combination of satellite altimetry observations with in situ tide gauge data has provided a better understanding of coastal sea level variability, but challenges remain to quantify the relative contributions of possible drivers (oceanic, vertical land motion (VLM), atmospheric and wave). Here, over the period 1993–2015, we combine concurrent observations from satellite altimetry, tide gauges, and oceanic model hindcast in order to identify the predominant drivers responsible for long-term variability of RSL at 434 coastal locations worldwide. We found that the dominant driver of the RSL trend is the ocean components in 76% of the cases, VLM in 17% and waves in 7%. Interestingly, no significant trend in the wave setup was noted over the period considered at most of our coastal stations. However, at some locations, we found significant correlations between the wave setup hindcasts and VLM data. Moreover, we evidence a substantial variance reduction in the VLM once corrected for the wave setup. We therefore recommend future studies aiming at VLM estimation to consider applying wave setup corrections to improve the comparability of the tide gauge and satellite altimetry measurements.

Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)

Abstract. The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.

North SEAL: a new dataset of sea level changes in the North Sea from satellite altimetry

Abstract. Information on sea level and its temporal and spatial variability is of great importance for various scientific, societal, and economic issues. This article reports about a new sea level dataset for the North Sea (named North SEAL) of monthly sea level anomalies (SLAs), absolute sea level trends, and amplitudes of the mean annual sea level cycle over the period 1995–2019. Uncertainties and quality flags are provided together with the data. The dataset has been created from multi-mission cross-calibrated altimetry data preprocessed with coastal dedicated approaches and gridded with an innovative least-squares procedure including an advanced outlier detection to a 6–8 km wide triangular mesh. The comparison of SLAs and tide gauge time series shows good consistency, with average correlations of 0.85 and maximum correlations of 0.93. The improvement with respect to existing global gridded altimetry solutions amounts to 8 %–10 %, and it is most pronounced in complicated coastal environments such as river mouths or regions sheltered by islands. The differences in trends at tide gauge locations depend on the vertical land motion model used to correct relative sea level trends. The best consistency with a median difference of 0.04±1.15 mm yr−1 is reached by applying a recent glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. With the presented sea level dataset, for the first time, a regionally optimized product for the entire North Sea is made available. It will enable further investigations of ocean processes, sea level projections, and studies on coastal adaptation measures. The North SEAL data are available at https://doi.org/10.17882/79673 (Müller et al., 2021).

Effects of sea level rise on storm surges in the south Yellow Sea: A case study of Typhoon Muifa (2011)

Changes in sea levels due to climate change are expected to alter storm surge intensities worldwide, disproportionately effecting coastal communities. In this study, we explored the impacts of future sea level rise (SLR) on storm surges within various numerical frameworks. The relative mean sea level rise (RMSLR) scenario for a period of 100-yr was applied using satellite altimetry of sea surface height and subsequently adjusted for the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) using the ICE-6G/VM5a model. For comparison purpose, two additional RMSLR distributions under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios were also evaluated from climate system model (CSM) ensembles and GIA. These spatially variable RMSLR scenarios were then incorporated into a high-resolution storm surge model using elevated present-day water depths to solve for coupled tide–surge–wave processes. The performance of the model was validated using in situ measurements of astronomical tides, storm tides and ocean waves. Due to the significant variability in the spatial distribution of future relative mean sea level trends in the Yellow Sea, the simplified, uniform RMSLR scenario was found to alter the responses of storm surges. The amplification or attenuation of surge heights was not solely affected by the magnitude of sea level change itself, but also modulated by changing tidal ranges and waves due to SLR. The amplification effects of tidal ranges and nonlinearities within radial sand ridges in the south Yellow Sea tended to be underestimated under the uniform scenario, suggesting that the impacts of SLR on storm surges in this region may represent underestimates.

An end to the Last Interglacial highstand before 120 ka: Relative sea-level evidence from Infreschi Cave (Southern Italy)

The timing, duration and evolution of sea level during the Marine Isotope Stage 5e (MIS 5e) highstand is a subject of intense debate. A major problem in resolving this debate is the difficulty of chronologically constraining the sea level fall that followed the peak of the highstand. This was mainly controlled by ice-sheet dynamics, the understanding of which is relevant for assessing future sea-level behavior due to global warming. Here we use stratigraphical and geochoronological (U/Th dating and tephra fingerprinting) evidence from the Infreschi archaeological cave (Marina di Camerota, Southern Italy) to constrain relative sea level (RSL) evolution during the MIS 5e highstand and younger stages. Uranium-thorium dating of speleothem deposition phases places the maximum highstand RSL at 8.90 ± 0.6 m a.s.l., as indicated by the near-horizontal upper limit of Lithophaga boreholes measured for along a ∼3.5 km coastal cliff section. Geochronological data show that RSL fell more than 6 m before ∼120 ka, suggesting a duration of the Last Interglacial highstand significantly shorter than proposed in some previous studies. Modelling shows that the RSL trend predicted by the ICE-5G and ICE-6G ice-sheet simulations is consistent with our data, but requires an additional significant reduction of both Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to match the height of the local maximum highstand if no correction for tectonics is applied. Reconciling field data and models requires an earlier and likely shorter duration of the MIS 5e highstand. This suggests that our new data can constrain global ice-volume variations during the penultimate deglaciation, as well as glacial inception at the end of the Last Interglacial. According to our chronology, there is no local evidence of higher-than-present-day sea levels after 120 ka.

Estimating Vertical Land Motion from Remote Sensing and In-Situ Observations in the Dubrovnik Area (Croatia): A Multi-Method Case Study

Different space-borne geodetic observation methods combined with in-situ measurements enable resolving the single-point vertical land motion (VLM) and/or the VLM of an area. Continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements can solely provide very precise VLM trends at specific sites. VLM area monitoring can be performed by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology in combination with the GNSS in-situ data. In coastal zones, an effective VLM estimation at tide gauge sites can additionally be derived by comparing the relative sea-level trends computed from tide gauge measurements that are related to the land to which the tide gauges are attached, and absolute trends derived from the radar satellite altimeter data that are independent of the VLM. This study presents the conjoint analysis of VLM of the Dubrovnik area (Croatia) derived from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 InSAR data available from 2014 onwards, continuous GNSS observations at Dubrovnik site obtained from 2000, and differences of the sea-level change obtained from all available satellite altimeter missions for the Dubrovnik area and tide gauge measurements in Dubrovnik from 1992 onwards. The computed VLM estimates for the overlapping period of three observation methods, i.e., from GNSS observations, sea-level differences, and Sentinel-1 InSAR data, are −1.93±0.38 mm/yr, −2.04±0.22 mm/yr, and −2.24±0.46 mm/yr, respectively.

Enough is Enough, or More is More? Testing the Influence of Foraminiferal Count Size on Reconstructions of Paleo-Marsh Elevation

ABSTRACTSalt-marsh foraminifera are sea-level proxies used to quantitatively reconstruct Holocene paleo-marsh elevations (PME) and subsequently relative sea level (RSL). The reliability of these reconstructions is partly dependent upon counting enough foraminifera to accurately characterize assemblages, while counting fewer tests allows more samples to be processed. We test the influence of count size on PME reconstructions by repeatedly subsampling foraminiferal assemblages preserved in a core of salt-marsh peat (from Newfoundland, Canada) with unusually large counts (up to 1595). Application of a single, weighted-averaging transfer function developed from a regional-scale modern training set to these ecologically-plausible simulated assemblages generated PME reconstructions at count sizes of 10–700. Reconstructed PMEs stabilize at counts sizes greater than ∼50 and counts exceeding ∼250 tests show little return for the additional time invested. The absence of some rare taxa in low counts is unlikely to markedly influence results from weighted-averaging transfer functions. Subsampling of modern foraminifera indicates that cross-validated transfer function performance shows only modest improvement when more than ∼40 foraminifera are counted. Studies seeking to understand multi-meter and millennial scale RSL trends should count more than ∼50 tests. The precision sought by studies aiming to resolve decimeter- and decadal-scale RSL variability is best achieved with counts greater than ∼75. In most studies seeking to reconstruct PME, effort is more productively allocated by counting relatively fewer foraminifera in more core samples than in counting large numbers of individuals. Target count sizes of 100–300 in existing studies are likely conservative and robust. Given the low diversity of salt-marsh foraminiferal assemblages, our results are likely applicable throughout and beyond northeastern North America.

Conflation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge records at coast

Abstract This study demonstrates that absolute (geocentric) and relative sea level trends, sea level acceleration, low frequency sea level variations and linear trends in vertical crustal movements experienced at a tide gauge station can be estimated simultaneously using conflated satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements without the aid of GPS measurements. The formulation is the first of its kind in sea level studies and its effectiveness is exemplified using tide gauge, and satellite altimetry measurements carried out in the vicinity of a tide gauge station.