Trends In Labor Force Participation Research Articles

Challenges and Opportunities for Young People in Rajasthan's Labour Market: A Study of Labour Force Participation Trends and Factors

The objective of this research paper is to examine the trends of labour force participation rate (LFPR) among young people (ages 15-29) in the state of Rajasthan, India, broken down by gender and rural/urban areas. The study also aims to investigate the factors that influence the LFPR of young people in Rajasthan during 2020-21, and identify any gender biasness in the labour force participation in Rajasthan. The research uses data from various to show that there is a decline in LFPR among young people in both rural and urban areas, and for both males and females. However, the decline is more pronounced among females, both in rural and urban areas. Additionally, the data suggests a gender biasness in the labour force participation in Rajasthan, as the females have a lower LFPR than the males in both rural and urban areas. The logit model from PLFS data of 2020-21 of young person also shows that there are a number of factors that influence LFPR, including family size, education level, number of jobs, and household income. The study concludes by highlighting the significance of addressing gender biasness and other factors that are affecting the LFPR of young people in Rajasthan in order to promote sustainable economic growth.

Prevalence and Economic Costs of Absenteeism in an Aging Population—A Quasi-Stochastic Projection for Germany

Demographic change is leading to the aging of German society. As long as the baby boom cohorts are still of working age, the working population will also age—and decline as soon as this baby boom generation gradually reaches retirement age. At the same time, there has been a trend toward increasing absenteeism (times of inability to work) in companies since the zero years, with the number of days of absence increasing with age. We present a novel stochastic forecast approach that combines population forecasting with forecasts of labor force participation trends, considering epidemiological aspects. For this, we combine a stochastic Monte Carlo-based cohort-component forecast of the population with projections of labor force participation rates and morbidity rates. This article examines the purely demographic effect on the economic costs associated with such absenteeism due to the inability to work. Under expected future employment patterns and constant morbidity patterns, absenteeism is expected to be close to 5 percent by 2050 relative to 2020, associated with increasing economic costs of almost 3 percent. Our results illustrate how strongly the pronounced baby boom/baby bust phenomenon determines demographic development in Germany in the midterm.

Potential growth in Turkey: Sources and trends

This paper estimates potential growth in Turkey using a production function estimation approach. Our approach aims to measure the inputs of production in the most detailed fashion that is possible and empirically addresses concepts of sustainable potential growth for Turkey. While developing measures of the sources of potential growth, we provide a thorough discussion of the estimated trends in labor force participation, capital growth by asset type, and total factor productivity since the mid-2000s. Our results suggest that the key driver of potential growth has increasingly been capital accumulation. The declining trend in the positive TFP growth stands out as the key area of improvement for potential growth.

An empirical analysis of trends in female labour force participation and the gender wage gap in South Africa

abstractIn this analysis, we constructed cohort data from repeated cross-sections using the Post-Apartheid Labour Market Series (PALMS) and examined trends in labour market outcomes in the South African labour market. Labour force participation trends show a substantial and persistent gender gap over the life cycle. The gender gap in employment is wide at young ages but seems to decline over the life cycle confirming that younger women are more vulnerable to high unemployment. Earnings trajectories of more recent cohorts of men and women are above those of older cohorts showing that younger cohorts have experienced gains in earnings over time. The gender wage gap is smaller for the youngest cohorts an indication of generational effects. This result suggests a long-term narrowing of the gender wage gap as male and female labour market characteristics become similar. The significance of age is evident as the gender wage gap increases over the life cycle indicating a discontinuous labour force participation for women. Interventions to reduce this discontinuity require among other things alleviating the disproportionate burden of care work shouldered by women to enable them to commit more time to the labour market. A cohort analysis of the occupational distribution by gender shows that more recent cohorts of women are in better occupations than the generations of women before them. This is attributable to improved human capital and better labour market opportunities for younger cohorts. A further narrowing of the gender wage gap requires interventions that will ensure a better distribution of women in male dominated occupations. We note however, that African men and women seem to be dropping out of the labour market at an early age which implies that other factors aside from motherhood or family responsibilities (possibly health issues) are causing this decline in participation.

Trends in Black–White Employment Gaps Since the Great Recession

The Great Recession had a devastating impact on labor force participation and employment. This impact was not unlike other recessions, except in size. The recovery, however, has been unusual not so much for its sluggishness but for the unusual pattern of recovery in employment by race. The Black employment–population rate has increased since bottoming out in 2010 while the White employment–population rate has remained flat. We examine trends in labor force participation and employment by race, sex, and age and determine that the explanation is a combination of an aging White population and an increase in labor force participation among younger Black people. We estimate the likelihood of labor force participation and employment among young men and women to control for confounding factors, such as changes in educational characteristics. We then decompose the gaps among groups and the changes over time in labor force participation using an Oaxaca–Blinder-like technique for nonlinear estimations. We find that much smaller negative impacts of characteristics and greater returns to characteristics among young Black men and women than among young White men and women explain the observed trends.

Trends in health and retirement in Latin America: Are older workers healthy enough to extend their working lives?

Abstract To counter the problems of demographic ageing, Latin American countries, like many nations elsewhere, are considering raising the retirement age in order to maintain fiscal balance and sustain economic prosperity. In doing so, however, they must take into account not only the simultaneous decline in older adults’ labour force participation but also poor health among those potentially affected by the change. In this paper, we use country comparable census data for 1970–2010 to analyse the labour force participation trends and health of male workers aged 50 years and over in Latin American countries. Our analysis focuses on two important health indicators: mortality risk and overall disease burden. We find that the greatly improved health conditions of recent years translate into lower labour force participation today than in the past, so that although contemporary male workers aged 55–59 have similar health statuses to their earlier counterparts aged 60–64, their patterns of labour force participation are very different. We therefore conclude that, overall, health does not present a barrier to raising the retirement age in Latin America, even in the longer term.

Black Employment Trends since the Great Recession

The Great Recession had a devastating impact on labor force participation and employment. This impact was not unlike other recessions, except in size. The recovery, however, has been unusual not so much for its sluggishness but for the unusual pattern of recovery in employment by race. The black employment–population ratio has increased since bottoming out in 2010, while the white employment–population ratio has remained flat. This paper examines trends in labor force participation and employment by race, sex, and age and determines that the explanation is a combination of an aging white population and an increase in labor force participation among younger black people. It estimates the likelihood of labor force participation and employment among young men and women to control for confounding factors (such as changes in educational characteristics) and decomposes the gaps among groups and the changes over time in labor force participation using a Oaxaca-Blinder-like technique for nonlinear estimations. Findings indicate that much smaller negative impacts of characteristics and greater returns to characteristics among young black men and women than among young white men and women explain the observed trends.

Understanding low female labour force participation: Policy evaluation using microsimulation

We project medium to long term trends in labour force participation and employment for selected low-participation EU countries (Italy, Spain, Ireland, Hungary and Greece), with Sweden as a benchmark, by means of a dynamic microsimulation model. By exploring alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts and their implications for GDP growth, we find that the gap between male and female participation is mostly explained by (i) differences in the individual conditional behaviour of older female cohorts, (ii) inadequate family policies. In particular, our results show that the conditional behaviour of younger women in the low-participation countries is similar to that in Sweden. In a nutshell, what is needed is not a change of behaviour on the side of women but a change of mentality on the side of institutions and firms.

Trends in labour force participation of older men: Examining the influence of policy reforms, normative change and deindustrialization in the Netherlands, 1992–2009

This study examines trends in labour force participation of older men (55–64 years) in the Netherlands between 1992 and 2009 using Dutch Labour Force Survey data. In this period, the share of early retirees and disability recipients steadily decreased, while labour force participation of Dutch older men increased. The authors characterize these developments both theoretically and empirically in terms of policy reforms, normative change and deindustrialization. More specifically, institutional early retirement arrangements were abolished due to the rising costs associated with the ageing of the Dutch population. Older men, therefore, became more likely to be employed, unemployed or disabled compared to early retired between 1992 and 2009. The authors also find that deindustrialization increases the chances of employment for older men with a university degree. Moreover, a shrinking industry sector is particularly harmful for the lowest educated older men, as their likelihood to be in unemployment increases compared to early retirement.

Policy levers to increase jobs and increase income from work after the Great Recession

AbstractThe depth of the Great Recession, the slow recovery of job creation, the downward trend in labor force participation, high long-term unemployment, stagnant or declining wages for low-to-medium skill jobs owing to adverse labor demand shifts, and a greater rebound in low-wage than mid- or higher-wage jobs raised concerns that the normal business cycle dynamics of recovery from the recession will be insufficient to offset the diminished labor market prospects of many workers. These concerns have spurred serious consideration of policies to encourage job creation and higher income from work beyond the more immediate countercyclical policies that were adopted in response to the Great Recession. Among the policies generating continuing or renewed interest are hiring credits, higher (sometimes much higher) minimum wages, and a more substantial earned income tax credit (EITC) for childless individuals. This paper discusses these policy options, what we know about their likely effects and trade-offs, and what the unanswered questions are; the focus is on US evidence.JEL codes:J2, J3, J6

Changing causes and consequences of labour force participation trends among the elderly in Sri Lanka

Population ageing in Sri Lanka is an inevitable outcome of a rapid demographic transition. This has occurred in a shorter time period in Sri Lan­ka than the developed countries. In traditional Sri Lankan society, younger generations were responsible for subsistence of the elderly while the elder­ly withdrew from the workforce. Increased life expectancy, modernization, migration, family transition, and retirement benefits, health condition of the elderly and inter and intra generational dependency influence changes in economic status among elderly and it can determining the wellbeing of the elderly in the latter part of their life cycle. Therefore, this paper focuses on examining the trends and patterns of the elderly labour force participation, causes and consequences. A Mixed methodological approach has been used, while quantitative data was drawn from the micro data of the Sri Lanka Labour Force Surveys of 2008 to 2012 and qualitative data collected from case studies. The main analysis is based on a total of 8006 males and fe­males aged 60 years and over. The results indicate that annual elderly labour force participation rates are about 26% and nearly 9% of them are elderly in the total labour force over the period. Sri Lanka Journal of Advanced Social Studies, 2013; Vol 3(2); Page 3-30

Discussion

Discussion

Policy Levers to Increase Jobs and Increase Income from Work after the Great Recession

The depth of the Great Recession, the slow recovery of job creation, the downward trend in labor force participation, high long-term unemployment, stagnant or declining wages for low-to-medium skill jobs owing to adverse labor demand shifts, and a greater rebound in low-wage than mid- or higher-wage jobs, raised concerns that the normal business cycle dynamics of recovery from the recession will be insufficient to offset the diminished labor market prospects of many workers. These concerns have spurred serious consideration of policies to encourage job creation and higher income from work beyond the more immediate countercyclical policies that were adopted in response to Great Recession. Among the policies generating continuing or renewed interest are hiring credits, higher (sometimes much higher) minimum wages, and a more substantial Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for childless individuals. This paper discusses these policy options, what we know about their likely effects and tradeoffs, and what the unanswered questions are; the focus is on U.S. evidence.

Race/ethnicity and sex in U.S. occupations, 1970–2010: Implications for research, practice, and policy

We used census data on the civilian non-institutional adult population to analyze trends in labor force participation by race/ethnicity and sex in U.S. occupations from 1970 to 2010 in decennial periods. We examined these data for the main effects and interactions of race/ethnicity and sex across the total labor market and within 35 detailed occupations. Results from a log-linear analysis revealed that, as a whole (across race/ethnicity), more women participated in the labor force from 1970 to 2010. The proportions of working racial/ethnic minorities to both the population and the people in the labor force increased across all decades except for Black men. Although White (Caucasian) men continuously comprised the largest racial/ethnic–sex group working across five decades in absolute numbers, their percentage of the total working population declined from 1970 (54%) to 2010 (37%). In our analyses of 35 occupations, significant sex differences within racial/ethnic groups emerged. Overall, with some exceptions, Asian men and women and White women were more likely to be absorbed into occupations typically associated with professional status whereas Black, Hispanic, and American Indian men and women were more likely to be absorbed into occupations typically associated with low skill, low wages, and low status. Implications for the role of psychologists in future research, practice, and policy are discussed.

Education and the Economy: Achievements and Shortfalls in Independent Zambia, 1964–2014

This article explores achievements and shortfalls in the development of national educational policy in Zambia since independence, with a focus on the relationship between education and employment, as part of the economic planning process. It draws on primary and secondary research related to national school enrolments, academic progression and educational finance, as well as contemporary trends in labour force participation. I argue that while the formulation of education policy and its implementation since independence have demonstrated deeper awareness of and commitment to expanding educational access and quality, Zambia's education system has yet to utilise educational policy directly and more effectively to strengthen linkages between schooling and employment. This phenomenon is observed particularly in the formal employment sector. Ultimately, transformative educational and economic opportunities for the majority of Zambians are unlikely in the absence of more targeted initiatives to address issues of educational attainment after basic education, as well as formal employment opportunities beyond the public sphere.

Projecting GDP Growth Using Trends in Labor Force Participation

Measuring the output gap without accounting for the trend in labor force participation may lead to persistent misdiagnoses of the state of the economy.

The Role of Coresidency with Adult Children in the Labor Force Participation Decisions of Older Men and Women in China

Over the course of China's economic reforms, a pronounced divergence in the labor force participation patterns of rural and urban elders emerged – rural elders increased their rates of participation while urban elders reduced theirs. In this project, based on the data of the Chinese population censuses of 1982 and 2000, we employ a two-stage procedure to take into account the endogeneity of the residency and labor force participation decisions of older persons. We find that the effect of coresidency with adult children on the labor force participation of older adult differs by urban vs. rural residence. In 1982, the LFPR of urban elders who coresided with their adult children were significantly higher than those who did not coreside. By 2000, this effect completely disappeared. In contrast, in rural areas, coresidency with adult children had a large and significant negative effect on the labor force participation of both male and female elders. This effect diminished only slightly over the reform period. Finally, we decompose the changes over time in elders' labor force participation decisions and find that the response effect for all groups (male and female, urban and rural) is positive, such that, holding the levels of demographic and economic variables constant, each group of elders would have had higher rates of participation in 2000 than in 1982. The remarkable divergence in urban and rural elders' labor force participation trends are due to differences in the relative sizes of their attribute and response effects.

Working in Old Age in the UK

In summer of 2013, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a record of more than one million people aged 65 or more being in employment in the UK. This represents a doubling relative to 1992 (when ONS began recording this statistic) and means almost one in ten people aged over 65 are employed. Part of the growth can simply be ascribed to demographics (a growing elderly population). Against the upward trend, we should also note a historical decline in work at older ages dating from the 1970s. Using data from the UK Labour Force Survey (LFS) and based on the statistical decomposition proposed by Blundell, Bozio and Laroque (2013), we examine the trends for working in old age between 1975 and 2012. We seek to contrast the increased prevalence of working in old age seen since the early 2000s with the historical decline in later-life employment from the mid-1970s; and to understand how these trends have been driven by:a. Participation in the labour market – the decision on whether to work.b. The number of hours worked by the employed – the intensity of work and the extent of part-time employment.Average hours worked in the economy can then change due to new trends in labour force participation or in the number of hours worked per employee. Whether the increase in employment of the elderly is having as dramatic an impact on the economy as the figures above suggest, depends on the intensity of work.

Health, Disability and Pathways into Retirement in Spain

In this paper we analyze the trends in labor force participation and transitions to benefit programs of older workers in relation to health trends as well as recent Social Security reforms. Our preliminary conclusions are pessimistic regarding the effect of health improvements on the labor market attachment of older workers since we show that despite the large improvements in the mortality rates among older individuals in Spain, the employment rates of individuals older than fifty-five remain lower than the ones observed in the late 1970s. Some caution should remain in our conclusions as the evidence on health trends is inconclusive. Regarding the effect of Social Security reforms, we find that both the 1997 and the 2002 reform decreased the stock into old-age benefits at the cost of an increased share of the participation into disability. Finally, we find that there was a significant increase in the outflow from employment into disability after the 2002 reform.

Trends in Labor Force Participation: How Much is Due to Changes in Pensions?

In the United States, beginning in the late 1980s there was a substantial increase in the labor force participation of men and women in their 60s. Over the same time period the type of pension plans offered by employers shifted strongly from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans. Defined benefit plans typically have optimal retirement ages embedded in their structure which induce early retirement, whereas defined contribution plans do not favor any particular retirement age. Based on panel data, this paper quantifies the increase in participation due to the change in pension structure. The main result is that the pension changes account for a considerable part of the increase, but other factors also made a contribution.