Tree-ring Reconstructed Research Articles

Tree ring reconstructed rainfall over the southern Amazon Basin

AbstractMoisture sensitive tree ring chronologies of Centrolobium microchaete have been developed from seasonally dry forests in the southern Amazon Basin and used to reconstruct wet season rainfall totals from 1799 to 2012, adding over 150 years of rainfall estimates to the short instrumental record for the region. The reconstruction is correlated with the same atmospheric variables that influence the instrumental measurements of wet season rainfall. Anticyclonic circulation over midlatitude South America promotes equatorward surges of cold and relatively dry extratropical air that converge with warm moist air to form deep convection and heavy rainfall over this sector of the southern Amazon Basin. Interesting droughts and pluvials are reconstructed during the preinstrumental nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but the tree ring reconstruction suggests that the strong multidecadal variability in instrumental and reconstructed wet season rainfall after 1950 may have been unmatched since 1799.

Bias in return period of droughts estimated from tree-ring reconstructions

This article investigates the bias in return period of droughts of extreme duration evolved from trun-cating tree-ring reconstructed precipitation. 239 years of tree-ring reconstructed annual precipitation for Madaba region in Jordan, covering the period 1743–1981, was used to explore the bias. Furthermore, 100 traces of simulated annual precipitation, each of 239 years, were generated using stochastic simulation model for comparison purposes. The results show that the return period estimated from the analysis of the tree-ring reconstructed precipitation departs increasingly downward from the expected results provided by simulation or theoretical models as the drought duration increases (becomes more extreme). The bias in the estimated return period can be neglected when the drought duration is fairly short, i.e. 1–2 years for the case under study.

Tree-ring reconstructed hydroclimate of the upper Klamath basin

Summary This work presents the first tree-ring reconstructions of hydroclimate for the Upper Klamath River basin, which stretches from northern California into southern Oregon. The extended record provides a centuries-long perspective on the region’s hydroclimatic variability and context for water-related political issues that have erupted in recent years. Reconstructions of water-year precipitation for Klamath Falls, Oregon (extending 1564–2004 and 1000–2010 CE) were developed to compare past drought severity with drought severity of the instrumental record (extending 1896–2011). The reconstructions suggest that variability exhibited during the instrumental period captures extremes of moderate-to-long-duration (6-, 10-, and 20-year) droughts, but not of short (single-year and 3-year) and very long (50-year) droughts, which were more severe during the 11th–13th centuries. The late-16th-century “mega drought” is present in the Klamath River basin, though with less strength than in the neighboring Sacramento River basin. Cool-season storm tracks appear to be a direct driver of hydroclimatic variability, leading to instances of see-saw like relationships with neighboring regions, such as in the mid-14th century. In contrast, the larger area of drought in the 12th century is suggestive of a long-term northward shift in cool-season storm tracks.

Bridging Past and Future Climate across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study

AbstractPotential biases in tree-ring reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) are evaluated using Thornthwaite (TH), Penman–Monteith (PM), and self-calibrating Penman–Monteith (SC) PDSI in three diverse regions of the United States and tree-ring chronologies from the North American drought atlas (NADA). Minimal differences are found between the three PDSI reconstructions and all compare favorably to independently reconstructed Thornthwaite-based PDSI from the NADA. Reconstructions are bridged with model-derived PDSI_TH and PDSI_PM, which both closely track modeled soil moisture (near surface and full column) during the twentieth century. Differences between modeled moisture-balance metrics only emerge in twenty-first-century projections. These differences confirm the tendency of PDSI_TH to overestimate drying when temperatures exceed the range of the normalization interval; the more physical accounting of PDSI_PM compares well with modeled soil moisture in the projection interval. Remaining regional differences in the secular behavior of projected soil moisture and PDSI_PM are interpreted in terms of underlying physical processes and temporal sampling. Results demonstrate the continued utility of PDSI as a metric of surface moisture balance while additionally providing two recommendations for future work: 1) PDSI_PM (or similar moisture-balance metrics) compare well to modeled soil moisture and are an appropriate means of representing soil-moisture balance in model simulations and 2) although PDSI_PM is more physically appropriate than PDSI_TH, the latter metric does not bias tree-ring reconstructions of past hydroclimate variability and, as such, reconstructions targeting PDSI_TH can be used with confidence in data–model comparisons. These recommendations and the collective results of this study thus provide a framework for comparing hydroclimate variability within paleoclimatic, observational, and modeled data.

Tree-ring reconstructed temperature index for coastal northern Japan: implications for western North Pacific variability

While paleoclimatic studies have extended our understanding of North Pacific climate variability, these have been almost exclusively based on proxies from western North America. We present a tree-ring reconstruction of June to September coastal air temperatures for Nemuro, northeastern Japan for the past four centuries. It explains 36% of the variance in instrumental temperatures and correlates significantly with indices of the atmosphere–ocean circulation. Spectral analyses reveal robust bidecadal peaks that appear associated with regional modes of western North Pacific variability. At decadal time scales, Nemuro temperatures appear to be influenced by the confluence of the Kuroshio and Oyashio currents, a primary centre of action driving Pacific Decadal Variability. Regime shifts (e.g. 1976) are weakly expressed relative to western North America. These aspects of western North Pacific climate are regionally distinct relative to those elsewhere in the basin, with greater complexity than can be attributed to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) alone.

Tree-ring reconstructed hydroclimate of the Upper Klamath basin

This work presents the first tree-ring reconstructions of hydroclimate for the Upper Klamath River basin, which stretches from northern California into southern Oregon. The extended record provides a centuries-long perspective on the region’s hydroclimatic variability and context for water-related political issues that have erupted in recent years. Reconstructions of water-year precipitation for Klamath Falls, Oregon (extending 1564–2004 and 1000–2010 CE) were developed to compare past drought severity with drought severity of the instrumental record (extending 1896–2011). The reconstructions suggest that variability exhibited during the instrumental period captures extremes of moderate-to-long-duration (6-, 10-, and 20-year) droughts, but not of short (single-year and 3-year) and very long (50-year) droughts, which were more severe during the 11th–13th centuries. The late-16th-century “mega drought” is present in the Klamath River basin, though with less strength than in the neighboring Sacramento River basin. Cool-season storm tracks appear to be a direct driver of hydroclimatic variability, leading to instances of see-saw like relationships with neighboring regions, such as in the mid-14th century. In contrast, the larger area of drought in the 12th century is suggestive of a long-term northward shift in cool-season storm tracks.

Pacific and Atlantic influences on Mesoamerican climate over the past millennium

A new tree-ring reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Mesoamerica from AD 771 to 2008 identifies megadroughts more severe and sustained than any witnessed during the twentieth century. Correlation analyses indicate strong forcing of instrumental and reconstructed June PDSI over Mesoamerica from the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Spectral analyses of the 1,238-year reconstruction indicate significant concentrations of variance at ENSO, sub-decadal, bi-decadal, and multidecadal timescales. Instrumental and model-based analyses indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is important to warm season climate variability over Mexico. Ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic is not strongly correlated with the June PDSI reconstruction during the instrumental era, but may be responsible for the strong multidecadal variance detected in the reconstruction episodically over the past millennium. June drought indices in Mesoamerica are negatively correlated with gridded June PDSI over the United States from 1950 to 2005, based on both instrumental and reconstructed data. Interannual variability in this latitudinal moisture gradient is due in part to ENSO forcing, where warm events favor wet June PDSI conditions over the southern US and northern Mexico, but dryness over central and southern Mexico (Mesoamerica). Strong anti-phasing between multidecadal regimes of tree-ring reconstructed June PDSI over Mesoamerica and reconstructed summer (JJA) PDSI over the Southwest has also been detected episodically over the past millennium, including the 1950–1960s when La Nina and warm Atlantic SSTs prevailed, and the 1980–1990s when El Nino and cold Atlantic SSTs prevailed. Several Mesoamerican megadroughts are reconstructed when wetness prevailed over the Southwest, including the early tenth century Terminal Classic Drought, implicating El Nino and Atlantic SSTs in this intense and widespread drought that may have contributed to social changes in ancient Mexico.

Tree-ring reconstruction of summer temperature for A.D. 1475–2003 in the central Hengduan Mountains, Northwestern Yunnan, China

Development of long tree-ring records is an important task in paleoclimate studies. Here we presented a five-century long reconstruction of summer (June to August) temperature based on a tree ring-width chronology of Picea brachytyla var. complanata originating from the Hengduan Mountains of China. Climate-growth response analysis showed that summer temperature was the main climatic factor limiting tree-ring growth in the study area. The reconstructed summer temperature accounted for 47.6% of the variance in actual temperature during their common period A.D. 1958–2002. Analysis of the temperature reconstruction showed that major warm periods occurred in the A.D. 1710s–1750s, 1850s, 1920s–1950s and 1990s to present, whereas cold intervals occurred in the A.D. 1630s–1680s, 1790s–1800s, 1860s–1880s and 1950s–1980s, respectively. The low-frequency variation of the reconstruction agreed fairly well with tree-ring reconstructed temperature from nearby regions and with records of glacier fluctuations in the surrounding high mountains, suggesting that our reconstructed summer temperature was reliable, and could aid in the evaluation of regional climate variability.

Long-term glacier variations in the Central Andes of Argentina and Chile, inferred from historical records and tree-ring reconstructed precipitation

Snow and ice in the Central Andes of Chile and Argentina (33–36 °S) are the major source of water for the highly populated regions near the cities of Santiago and Mendoza. However, our knowledge of the forces driving the general glacier retreat in the region is limited. In order to obtain a long-term perspective of glacier fluctuations and their relationships with climate in the Central Andes, historical glacier variations were documented and compared with a tree-ring precipitation reconstruction based upon Austrocedrus chilensis trees. A multi-proxy approach (historical documents, old aerial photographs and satellite imagery) was used to map the fluctuations of eight glaciers, including the Cipreses Glacier, which provides the oldest record of glacier variations in the region starting in AD 1842. All the studied glaciers exhibited a negative trend during the 20th century with mean frontal retreats between − 50 and − 9 m y − 1 , thinning rates between 0.76 and 0.56 m y − 1 and a mean ice area reduction of 3% since 1955. More than 350 tree-ring cores were combined into three tree-ring chronologies, which strongly correlate with the instrumental precipitation in Santiago de Chile (33°26′ S; 70°41′ W, 520 m asl). Based on these records, a 712-year precipitation reconstruction was developed. This reconstruction is characterised by a centennial oscillation indicating marked dry conditions around the years 1440 and 1600 AD. Wet conditions were prevalent in the years 1500, 1650 and particularly around 1850 AD. Since this precipitation maximum, the reconstruction shows a clear, secular, decreasing trend. The reduction in precipitation indicated by this reconstruction for the last 150 yr, in combination with a significant warming recorded in Central Chile, are the main causes of the observed current glacier retreats.

Long-term relationships between reconstructed seasonal mass balance at Peyto Glacier, Canada, and Pacific sea surface temperatures

Tree-ring based mass balance reconstructions developed for Peyto Glacier, Alberta, Canada are compared with measured conditions in the Pacific Ocean over the last century and, using reconstructions of Pacific climate indices, over the past ∼ 300 years, at interannual and decadal-interdecadal timescales. Tree-ring reconstructed winter balance totals at Peyto Glacier in La Nina, negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and La Nina/negative PDO years significantly exceed those in El Nino, positive PDO and El Nino/positive PDO years, respectively. The same phase pairings of reconstructed summer mass balance do not differ significantly. These findings confirm those seen in the measured mass balance records and shorter (100 years) tree-ring and instrumental climate record-based reconstructions, suggesting similar relationships have existed over the past ∼ 300 years. Maps showing the regression of Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the seasonal mass balance series indicates that both winter and, albeit more weakly, summer mass balance series are related to ENSO-like patterns of SST variability in the Pacific Ocean at both interannual and interdecadal timescales.

Tree-Ring Reconstructed Maize Yield in Central Mexico: 1474–2001

Maize was domesticated more than 6,000 years ago in central Mexico, and remains a vital staple food and cultural symbol in Mesoamerica. Maize yield in the central highlands is strongly dependant on adequate rainfall early in the growing season (April–June) because late maturation of the crop may result in damage from autumn frost. Climate-induced crop failures with profound socioeconomic impacts have punctuated Mexican history. However, reliable records of maize harvest have not been available until very recently, and historical records of crop yield and price are discontinuous and can be difficult to interpret. We have developed a continuous, exactly dated, tree-ring reconstruction of maize yield variability in central Mexico from 1474 to 2001 that provides new insight into the history of climate and food availability in the heartland of the Mesoamerican cultural province. The reconstruction indicates that seven of the most severe agricultural crises in Mexican history occurred during decadal-scale episodes of reconstructed maize shortfalls.

Tree-ring reconstructed rainfall variability in Zimbabwe

We present the first tree-ring reconstruction of rainfall in tropical Africa using a 200-year regional chronology based on samples of Pterocarpus angolensis from Zimbabwe. The regional chronology is significantly correlated with summer rainfall (November–February) from 1901 to 1948, and the derived reconstruction explains 46% of the instrumental rainfall variance during this period. The reconstruction is well correlated with indices of the El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO), and national maize yields. An aridity trend in instrumental rainfall beginning in about 1960 is partially reproduced in the reconstruction, and similar trends are evident in the nineteenth century. A decadal-scale drought reconstructed from 1882 to 1896 matches the most severe sustained drought during the instrumental period (1989–1995), and is confirmed in part by documentary evidence. An even more severe drought is indicated from 1859 to 1868 in both the tree-ring and documentary data, but its true magnitude is uncertain. A 6-year wet period at the turn of the nineteenth century (1897–1902) exceeds any wet episode during the instrumental era. The reconstruction exhibits spectral power at ENSO, decadal and multi-decadal frequencies. Composite analysis of global sea surface temperature during unusually wet and dry years also suggests a linkage between reconstructed rainfall and ENSO.

DROUGHT, TREE RINGS, AND RESERVOIR DESIGN

: Droughts constitute one of the most important factors affecting the design and operation of water resources infrastructure. Hydrologists ascertain their duration, severity, and pattern of recurrence from instrumental records of precipitation or stream-flow. Under suitable conditions, and with proper analysis, tree rings obtained from long living, climate sensitive species of trees can extend instrumental records of streamflow and precipitation over periods spanning several centuries. Those tree-ring “reconstructions” provide a valuable insight about climate variability and drought occurrence in the Holocene, and yield long term hydrological data useful in the design of water infrastructure. This work presents a derivation of drought risk based on a renewal model of drought recurrence, a brief review of the basic theory of tree-ring reconstructions, and a stochastic model for optimizing the design of water supply reservoirs. Examples illustrate the methodology developed in this work and the supporting role that tree-ring reconstructed streamflow can play in characterizing hydrologic variability.