Risk Of Tree Mortality Research Articles

Increasing Sensitivity of Tree Radial Growth to Precipitation

AbstractThe sensitivity of tree growth to precipitation regulates their responses to drought, and is a crucial metric for predicting ecosystem dynamics and vulnerability. Sensitivity may be changing with continuing climate change, yet a comprehensive assessment of its change is still lacking. We utilized tree ring measurements from 3,044 sites, climate data and CO2 concentrations obtained from monitoring stations, combined with dynamic global vegetation models to investigate spatiotemporal changes in the sensitivity over the past century. We observed an increasing sensitivity since around 1950. This increased sensitivity was particularly pronounced in arid biomes due to the combined effect of increased precipitation and elevated CO2. While elevated CO2 reduced the sensitivity of the humid regions, the intensified water pressure caused by decreased precipitation still increased the sensitivity. Our findings suggest an escalating vulnerability of tree growth to precipitation change, which may increase the risk of tree mortality under future intensified drought.

Densely stocked neighborhood reduces the risk of tree mortality in drylands: Evidence from Populus euphratica forests along the Tarim River corridor

To mitigate forest loss under current environmental challenges, it is increasingly urgent to model how tree mortality is mediated by both biotic and abiotic agents. However, the role of neighborhood interactions in mediating tree survival in dryland forests has been poorly understood, as it is often presupposed to be irrelevant in low-density stands coupled with overriding drought stress. Here, we conducted a failure time analysis of Populus euphratica forests (known as Tugay forests) in the Tarim River corridor (NW China) to examine the presupposition. We collected a spatial-explicit population inventory dataset with >7000 trees on ca. 14-ha land area with varying vapor pressure deficit (VPD), groundwater table depth (GWD), and stand density. Hegyi's competition index (CI) and stand density index (SDI, the number of large trees with an equivalent diameter of 25.4 cm) were employed to characterize neighborhood structures of each individual tree. Aridity stresses (higher VPD and GWD) tended to elevate tree mortality risk, and showed weaker effects than neighborhood structures did. Tree mortality risk increased drastically with higher CI, suggesting a strong role of competition for critical water resource. However, tree mortality risk reduced with higher SDI, likely due to ameliorated stresses of excessive light and/or temperature under less open canopies. This study highlights the importance of localized inter-tree interactions in regulating tree populations under prevalent drought stress and reiterates classic cautions against inferences about competition/facilitation in absence of spatial-explicit contexts. We recommend the priority of preserving large trees aggregated as closed stands in dryland forest conservation.

Local carbon reserves are insufficient for phloem terpene induction during drought in Pinus edulis in response to bark beetle-associated fungi.

Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack. We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in mature Pinus edulis under experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma sp.) of Ips confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response. Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted for c. 23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site. Our results show that de novo terpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes in P. edulis following fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance of de novo terpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response.

Future Drought‐Induced Tree Mortality Risk in Amazon Rainforest

Future Drought‐Induced Tree Mortality Risk in Amazon Rainforest

Reduced growth sensitivity to water availability as potential indicator of drought-induced tree mortality risk in a Mediterranean Pinus sylvestris L. forest

IntroductionDrought-associated tree mortality has been increasing worldwide since the last decades, impacting structure and functioning of forest ecosystems, with implications for energy, carbon and water fluxes. However, the understanding of the individual vulnerability to drought-induced mortality is still limited.MethodsWe aimed to identify the factors that triggered the mortality of the widely distributed Pinus sylvestris L. in an extensive forest area in central Spain. We compared radial growth patterns in pairs of alive and recently dead individuals that co-occur in close proximity and present similar age and size, thereby isolating the effects of size and environment from the mortality process. Temporal dynamics of growth, growth synchrony, and growth sensitivity to water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) were compared between alive and recently dead trees.Results and discussionOver the last 50 years, although we did not detect significant differences in growth between alive and dead trees, an increase in the growth synchrony and sensitivity to water availability (i.e. slope of the climatic water balance in the growth model) was observed in all trees as drought intensity increased. 20 years before mortality, dead individuals showed lower growth synchrony and growth sensitivity to water availability than alive ones, without significant differences in growth. Recorded reduction in growth synchrony and growth sensitivity to water availability in dead trees suggests a decoupling between tree growth and climate, which could increase the risk of hydraulic failure and/or carbon starvation under increasingly arid conditions. Thus, the use of reduced growth sensitivity to water availability as potential early-warning signal of tree mortality, together with reduced growth synchrony, should be further explored, particularly in pine species in seasonally dry areas.

Sensitivity of physiological traits to different short-term drought events and subsequent recovery at the sapling stage in European white elm (Ulmus laevis Pall.)

There is an urgent need to better understand the processes underlying trees resistance and resilience to drought as a prerequisite for adapting to climate change. In this study, the effect of different short-term drought events on the physiology of European white elm saplings, as well as the rates at which their physiological traits recover after drought were identified. Elm saplings responded sensitively to drought stress: leaf water potential, net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance were the most sensitive traits. The normalized difference vegetation index and leaf water content responded only to severe drought stress conditions. Drought triggered the conversion of soluble carbohydrates to starch in leaves but not in roots. Root function was severely damaged by drought as indicated by increased root electrolyte leakage. Tree survival and the recovery rate were significantly better under two shorter drought periods compared to one longer drought. For this reason, the precipitation pattern in models evaluating tree survival under climatic change has to be taken into account. The differences in the studied traits between surviving and dying saplings increased as drought progressed and leaf water content together with leaf reflectance indexes were identified as the best indicators for evaluating tree mortality risk. These findings are very important, as they show that these specific traits can be used to identify trees susceptible to drought in the field as they can be sensed remotely.

Estimating Individual Tree Mortality in the Sierra Nevada Using Lidar and Multispectral Reflectance Data

AbstractWidespread tree mortality events occur during periods of severe drought in temperate conifer forests and are expected to become more frequent in many areas due to climate change. Improved mapping of individual tree mortality is needed to identify risk factors and design effective conservation strategies. In this study, we used National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) lidar and multispectral reflectance airborne observations to map individual tree mortality over a 160 km2 area during and after the 2012–2016 drought for two sites in California's Sierra National Forest. We used NEON lidar to derive tree locations and crown perimeters and multispectral data to map tree mortality for more than 1 million trees. We found that 25.4% of the trees in our study area died between 2013 and 2017, with considerably higher mortality at the lower‐elevation Soaproot Saddle site. Between 2017 and 2019, an additional 2.0%–2.8% of the trees died each year. Two wildfires in 2020 and 2021 increased tree mortality within burned area perimeters by 49%–89% between 2019 and 2021. Consistent with previous work, we found that tree mortality risk increased as a function of tree height. Tree mortality was positively associated with distance from rivers, trees per hectare, and decreasing slope at the lower elevation site. In contrast, increasing slope was positively associated with tree mortality at the higher elevation site. Our approach and dataset provide a means to study the combined effects of drought and wildfire on tree mortality and may improve projections of forest resilience under a changing climate.

Hyposensitive canopy conductance renders ecosystems vulnerable to meteorological droughts.

Increased meteorological drought intensity with rising atmospheric demand for water (hereafter vapor pressure deficit [VPD]) increases the risk of tree mortality and ecosystem dysfunction worldwide. Ecosystem-scale water-use strategy is increasingly recognized as a key factor in regulating drought-related ecosystem responses. However, the link between water-use strategy and ecosystem vulnerability to meteorological droughts is poorly established. Using the global flux observations, historic hydroclimatic data, remote-sensing products, and plant functional-trait archive, we identified potentially vulnerable ecosystems, examining how ecosystem water-use strategy, quantified by the percentage bias (δ) of the empirical canopy conductance sensitivity to VPD relative to the theoretical value, mediated ecosystem responses to droughts. We found that prevailing soil water availability substantially impacted δ in dryland regions where ecosystems with insufficient soil moisture usually showed conservative water-use strategy, while ecosystems in humid regions exhibited more pronounced climatic adaptability. Hyposensitive and hypersensitive ecosystems, classified based on δ falling below or above the theoretical sensitivity, respectively, achieved similar net ecosystem productivity during droughts, employing different structural and functional strategies. However, hyposensitive ecosystems, risking their hydraulic system with a permissive water-use strategy, were unable to recover from droughts as quickly as hypersensitive ones. Our findings highlight that processed-based models predicting current functions and future performance of vegetation should account for the greater vulnerability of hyposensitive ecosystems to intensifying atmospheric and soil droughts.

Accuracy of Defoliation Estimates from Aerial and Ground Surveys in a Boreal Forest during an Outbreak of the Hemlock Looper, Lambdina fiscellaria (Guenée)

Annual estimates of defoliation are important tools for managing forest insect defoliators such as the hemlock looper, which feeds on conifer needles of all age classes. We tested the accuracy of defoliation classes obtained from aerial surveys by comparing them with ground-based estimates during a recent outbreak of this insect. We used an approach derived from the Fettes method to estimate defoliation on the current-year shoots as well as on the shoots of the four previous years. Defoliation on the current-year shoots provided accurate estimates of the overall defoliation and the strength of the relationship gradually decreasing for one-year-old to four-year-old foliage. The aerial survey provided accurate estimates of light and moderate defoliation during the first year of the outbreak, but accuracy was lower for both ends of the defoliation gradient and was much less reliable after the second year of the outbreak. All levels of defoliation were then observed in stands where defoliation had not been detected by an aerial survey. Cumulative defoliation on all age classes of foliage brings a new challenge to crews assigned to aerial survey programs. Ground-level defoliation estimates on the current-year shoots can help appraise the risk of tree mortality in the following year.

Tree Mortality Risk Surges in Australian Rain Forests

Researchers link vulnerability to “atmospheric drought” associated with climate change.

Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress.

Evidence exists that tree mortality is accelerating in some regions of the tropics1,2, with profound consequences for the future of the tropical carbon sink and the global anthropogenic carbon budget left to limit peak global warming below 2 °C. However, the mechanisms that may be driving such mortality changes and whether particular species are especially vulnerable remain unclear3-8. Here we analyse a 49-year record of tree dynamics from 24 old-growth forest plots encompassing a broad climatic gradient across the Australian moist tropics and find that annual tree mortality risk has, on average, doubled across all plots and species over the last 35years, indicating a potential halving in life expectancy and carbon residence time. Associated losses in biomass were not offset by gains from growth and recruitment. Plots in less moist local climates presented higher average mortality risk, but local mean climate did not predict the pace of temporal increase in mortality risk. Species varied in the trajectories of their mortality risk, with the highest average risk found nearer to the upper end of the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit niches of species. A long-term increase in vapour pressure deficit was evident across the region, suggesting that thresholds involving atmospheric water stress, driven by global warming, may be a primary cause of increasing tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk

Summary Predicting species‐level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections.We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South‐Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344–1424 mm yr−1). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE to the 2017–2019 drought; a 20% drier drought; and a 20% drier drought with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).The severity of the drought was highlighted as for at least 25% of their distribution ranges, 60% of species experienced leaf water potentials beyond the water potential at which 50% of hydraulic conductivity is lost due to embolism. We identified areas of severe hydraulic stress within‐species’ ranges, but we also pinpointed resilience in species found in predominantly semiarid areas. The importance of the role of CO2 in ameliorating drought stress was consistent across species.Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to forecast the resilience of individual tree species, providing an evidence base for decision‐making around the resilience of restoration plantings or net‐zero emission strategies.

Climate warming may weaken stabilizing mechanisms in old forests

AbstractPlant competition may intensify with climate warming, but whether this will occur equally for conspecific and heterospecific competition remains unknown. Competitive shifts have the potential to instigate community change because the relative strengths of conspecific and heterospecific negative density dependence mediate the stabilizing mechanisms underpinning species coexistence. We examined a mature temperate forest to assess both direct and indirect climate effects at multiple scales: individual species, interspecies relationships, and community stability mechanisms. Our coupled approach (1) quantified tree mortality risk dependence on the interactive effects of competition, climatic water deficit, snowpack, and soil moisture for 28,913 trees over 8 years (3149 mortalities), then (2) used a climate‐projection ensemble to forecast changes in conspecific and heterospecific competition from 2020 to 2100. We predict that projected climate warming will destabilize the foundational forest community by increasing the strength of heterospecific competition at a greater rate and to a greater degree than conspecific competition for four of five abundant tree species, particularly on dry microsites. Modeling showed that these findings were most pronounced after the year 2038, at which point snowpacks were projected to be too small to ameliorate the effects of drought on competitive interactions. Our finding that heterospecific competition is more sensitive than conspecific competition to climate warming may indicate the impending loss of ecosystem functioning. We join the growing body of work showing a predominance of indirect drought effects, yet coupled climate models still fail to consider how changing community dynamics may impact forest cover and, in turn, disrupt forest–climate carbon feedbacks. Ecosystems sharing characteristics with our example forest—those with low species richness and therefore a limited biodiversity insurance effect—may be similarly vulnerable to climate‐mediated destabilization. In such communities, increased heterospecific competition among even a small number of species can more easily destabilize communities without recourse from redundant species. This study of an overlooked but vital mechanism of community change can be adapted by research in a range of ecosystems to improve the understanding of climate change consequences.

High-resolution planet satellite imagery and multi-temporal surveys to predict risk of tree mortality in tropical eucalypt forestry

Global high-resolution imagery is a well-assimilated technology in forest mapping. The release of the Norway's International Climate & Forests Initiative (NICFI) Planet tropical basemaps time-series starting in 2015 at a 4.77-m resolution represents a unique opportunity to forecast climate change consequences such as drought episodes. Using multi-temporal ground surveys over 144 plots and publicly available high-resolution Planet dove time-series imagery we evaluate forest mortality patterns driven by imaging spectroscopy methods in Mato Grosso (Brazil) over an area planted with eucalypts severely affected by the 2019 drought. Changes in vegetation indexes before and after the 2019 drought were modelled using the effective logistic regression modelling to explain variation in tree mortality between the surveys, the dependent variable. We aimed to straightforwardly model tree mortality using change vectors in Planet's image mosaics co-registering in time with the observed tree mortality measurements in the field. The results showed differences in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as the most significant predictor variable under the effective logistic regression modelling performed. The efficacy of 80.98% in concordance pairs correctly classified represented 0.81 of area under the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC). The release of the 2015–2020 Planet imagery in the tropics at 4.77-m resolution represents a valuable dataset to better understand previous natural disturbances and a powerful technology to detect in advance, and monthly after September 2020, eucalypt areas prone to harmful and increasingly frequent water-stress episodes.

Protecting forest edges using trap logs – Limited effects of associated push-pull strategies targeting Ips typographus

Bark beetles can cause epidemic outbreaks and kill millions of cubic meters of economical and ecologically important forests around the world. It is well known what attracts and what repels different species of bark beetle, and these chemical cues can be used to protect trees and catch the beetles without using pesticides. Applying this knowledge, we investigated the use of push–pull strategies with trap logs along susceptible edges of a Swedish boreal spruce forest. The repellents (push) used were non-host volatiles (NHV) attached to tree trunks at the forest edge, and the attractants (pull) was a commercial aggregation pheromone attached to trap logs. The aim was to test whether the Ips typographus catch could be significantly increased by combining a push–pull system with traditional trap logs, thereby providing additional protection. The experiment was performed over two years and included the main flight period of I. typographus. The study sites were clear-cuts that had been harvested the preceding winter, and sun-exposed forest edges of mature spruce were targeted for protection. A full factorial setup was used comprising two treatments (repellent and attractant) and a control. Seven replicates of the trap logs were used, three during the first year and four during the second. The number of established I. typographus maternal galleries per square meter of log surface was used as the response variable. The trap logs captured large numbers of I. typographus, at an average density of 353 and 169 maternal galleries per m2 during year 1 and year 2, respectively, over all treatments. Based on the catch data, with a sufficient number of trap logs, the risk of tree mortality at forest edges may be reduced and we recommend its general use. However, we did not see any significant effect of either the repellent or the attractant on the density of maternal galleries. Hence, we cannot recommend the addition of chemical cues to improve the efficiency of trap logs. Although trap logs are efficient in capturing bark beetles and hence may protect forest edges, it does not imply that they can provide protection on a larger scale. In line with other studies, we hence recommend that forest management to target nature-based solutions that strengthen the resilience of forest stands, by using mixed forest stands and resistant plant species, and nurture habitats for natural predators of I. typographus.

Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests.

The relative importance of tree mortality risk factors remains unknown, especially in diverse tropical forests where species may vary widely in their responses to particular conditions. We present a new framework for quantifying the importance of mortality risk factors and apply it to compare 19 risks on 31 203 trees (1977 species) in 14 one-year periods in six tropical forests. We defined a condition as a risk factor for a species if it was associated with at least a doubling of mortality rate in univariate analyses. For each risk, we estimated prevalence (frequency), lethality (difference in mortality between trees with and without the risk) and impact ('excess mortality' associated with the risk, relative to stand-level mortality). The most impactful risk factors were light limitation and crown/trunk loss; the most prevalent were light limitation and small size; the most lethal were leaf damage and wounds. Modes of death (standing, broken and uprooted) had limited links with previous conditions and mortality risk factors. We provide the first ranking of importance of tree-level mortality risk factors in tropical forests. Future research should focus on the links between these risks, their climatic drivers and the physiological processes to enable mechanistic predictions of future tree mortality.

The coupled effect of soil and atmospheric constraints on the vulnerability and water use of two desert riparian ecosystems

Plant response to soil and atmospheric water stresses is the dominant control of Dryland ecosystem functions, affecting water resources, ecosystem stability and biodiversity. The link between water stresses and plant water status is regulated by plant hydraulics, of which the corresponding impact on plant water use and the susceptibility of Dryland ecosystems remains under-explored. We used a plant hydraulic model to describe hydraulic states and water flux of two species (Populus euphratica and Tamarix ramosissima) in desert riparian ecosystems. We optimized hydraulic parameters and tested the model using observed physiological states and ecosystem water flux. The optimized model was used to evaluate plant hydraulic sensitivity, tree mortality risk, and evapotranspiration under a wide range of water stress scenarios. The model captures the observed leaf water potential, sap-flow and ecosystem evapotranspiration. Our scenario analysis demonstrates that hydraulic sensitivities generally reduce as the water stresses intensify. The results highlight a strong coupled impact of the co-occurrence of soil and atmospheric water stresses on restricting ecosystem water flux and intensifying mortality risk. The assessment of multiple aspects of eco-physiological functions and the stress scenario analysis of desert riparian ecosystems will contribute to a better prediction of ecosystem functions and facilitate resource management under future climate.

SurEau: a mechanistic model of plant water relations under extreme drought

Key messageA new process-based model,SurEau, is described. It predicts the risk of xylem hydraulic failure under drought.ContextThe increase in drought intensity due to climate change will accentuate the risk of tree mortality. But very few process-based models are currently able to predict this mortality risk.AimsWe describe the operating principle of a new mechanistic model SurEau that computes the water balance, water relations, and hydraulics of a plant under extreme drought.MethodsSurEau is based on the formalization of key physiological processes of plant response to water stress. The hydraulic and hydric functioning of the plant is at the core of this model, which focuses on both water flows (i.e., hydraulic) and water pools (i.e., hydric) using variable hydraulic conductances. The model considers the elementary flow of water from the soil to the atmosphere through different plant organs that are described by their symplasmic and apoplasmic compartments. For each organ, the symplasm is described by a pressure-volume curve and the apoplasm by its vulnerability curve to cavitation. The model is evaluated on mature oak trees exposed to water stress.ResultsOn the tested oak trees, the model captures well the observed soil water balance, water relations, and level of embolism. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the level of embolism is strongly determined by air VPD and key physiological traits such as cuticular transpiration, resistance to cavitation, and leaf area.ConclusionThe process-based SurEau model offers new opportunities to evaluate how different species or genotypes will respond to future climatic conditions.

Historic declines in growth portend trembling aspen death during a contemporary leaf miner outbreak in Alaska

AbstractClimate change‐driven droughts and insect outbreaks are becoming more frequent and widespread, increasing forest vulnerability to mortality. By addressing the impacts of climate and insects on tree growth preceding death, we can better understand tree mortality risk under a changing climate. Here, we used tree stature and interannual growth (basal area increment; BAI) to assess processes leading to trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) survival or mortality during an unprecedented leaf miner (Phyllocnistis populiella) outbreak in boreal North America. We identified eight sites (22 plots) in the longest running forest monitoring network in Alaska, spanning ~350 km of latitude, that experienced ≥0.25 Mg·ha−1·yr−1 aspen mortality during the outbreak. We compared the size and canopy position, growth patterns, and sensitivity to climate and leaf mining of aspen that survived (living; n = 84) vs. died (dying; n = 76) and linked the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to plot‐level aspen growth and stand biomass recruitment, growth, and mortality. Dying aspen were in the subcanopy, smaller in diameter, and after a drought in 1957 had lower growth than living aspen until death. Before the outbreak, growth of all trees was positively influenced by moisture and negatively by temperature, but only living trees maintained this climate response during the outbreak. Leaf mining reduced growth of both groups, exerting at least a twofold greater impact than climate. The NDVI captured plot‐level tree growth and stand biomass growth and mortality, yet it was nearly two times more strongly associated with living than dying tree growth and 12 times more strongly associated with biomass growth than mortality. These differences suggest that NDVI may inadequately detect insect‐driven dieback and dispersed mortality of aspen across the boreal biome. Our findings reveal that a historic drought triggered a multi‐decadal growth decline that predisposed aspen to mortality during the leaf miner outbreak and that while aspen growth is influenced by moisture and temperature, it is more strongly affected by P. populiella. We conclude that as the climate warms and insect outbreaks increase in frequency and magnitude at high latitudes, we should expect to see persistent and greater declines in aspen growth and increases in mortality.

Light availability predicts mortality probability of conifer saplings in Swiss mountain forests better than radial growth and tree size

Radial and height growth rates are suitable indicators of impending tree mortality risk of adult trees, but their applicability to saplings remains unknown. We compared radial growth of living and dead saplings of different heights and quantified the effects of light availability, growth and tree size on mortality. We sampled an equal number of living and dead saplings of four coniferous tree species (Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies, Abies alba) in nine forests along an elevational gradient of the Swiss Alps. Based on tree-ring widths reconstructed from stem disks at multiple tree heights, we calculated radial growth rates. We observed a divergent pattern in radial growth of living and dead saplings, with reduced growth of dead saplings starting several years prior to death. By matching living and dead saplings of similar ages, we tested whether mortality probabilities of saplings were influenced by light availability, recent growth rates and diameter. Mortality of coniferous saplings in mountain forests was mainly influenced by light availability, with changing effects along the elevational gradient. Recent radial growth rate and tree size were only weakly associated with sapling mortality. Our study establishes the importance of long-term predisposing factors for the mortality probability of conifer saplings in mountain forests, thus extending well-established findings from the adult stage to saplings, which represent a critical stage of forest dynamics.