Incineration is an effective method for the treatment of municipal solid waste, pre-treatment reduces the waste moisture content to increase the incineration performance. However, the inlet temperature variation influenced by the environment is often ignored at this stage, and the coupling of moisture content and inlet temperature directly affects the incineration performance. To investigate the optimal inlet conditions for the incineration, the numerical model of a 600 t/d incinerator was established according to a reference case. Detailed analyses of the combustion characteristics of the bed and furnace is conducted under various moisture contents and inlet temperatures. The incineration efficiency under multiple factors is analyzed using response surface methodology, with sensitivity to these factors derived from the surface derivative. The results indicate that at an inlet temperature of 30 °C, the rates of volatile release and fixed carbon combustion are negatively correlated with the moisture content, and maximum incineration efficiency of 39.02 % is reached at a moisture content of 28.12 %. At a moisture content of 33.26 %, The rates of moisture evaporation, volatile release, and fixed carbon combustion are positively correlated with inlet temperature, and the maximum incineration efficiency of 38.76 % is achieved at an inlet temperature of 40 °C. The incineration efficiency exhibits a negative sensitivity to moisture content, whereas its sensitivity to inlet temperature is contingent upon the specific temperature range. The combination of 26.53 % moisture content and 40.86 °C inlet temperature yields the highest incineration efficiency of 40.69 %. The findings of this study provide useful information for the pre-treatment of municipal solid waste, contributing to the enhancement of operational efficiency in waste-to-energy plants.