Transportation Research Board Research Articles

Integrating equity in transportation scenario planning: A systematic review

To address the growing uncertainties in the future transportation industry, planners and engineers have identified and implemented scenario planning, a multi-step and strategic approach, in long-range transportation planning. A comprehensive examination of how equity is envisioned, planned, and analyzed during this process remains absent, despite several key guidelines of scenario planning exercises. This paper conducts a systematic literature review focusing on how equity has been considered and evaluated in scenario planning. The resources include academic papers, agency reports, and materials from the recent scenario planning conference, the 2nd Conference on Scenario Planning in Transportation hosted by the Transportation Research Board. This paper examines equity in scenario planning in three important ways: 1) the ways equity has been integrated across steps; 2) how equity analysis has evolved; and 3) when it is necessary to consider equity. This work adds value to the existing body of knowledge by presenting the policy implications based on the review of the current scenario planning research and practices. Early policy recommendations include the need for more vertical equity evaluations, the construction of robustness and justice indicators, and the adoption of a flexible mindset of planning for rather than being fixated on a single scenario.

Tolling Value Proposition for Trucking and State Departments of Transportation

The Interstate Highway System is critically important to the trucking industry. In a 2019 report to Congress, the Transportation Research Board found that much of the system is wearing out. It recommended a 20-year, US$1 trillion program of reconstruction and modernization. However, in its 2021 Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act, Congress took no action on interstate reconstruction. Several states are considering toll financing for this purpose, but the trucking industry has long opposed any expansion of tolling, despite its need for a modernized interstate system. This paper considers four concerns of the trucking industry—toll roads used as cash cows, the high cost of collection compared with fuel taxes, little value-added for users, and double taxation (tolls and fuel taxes on the same roadway). The paper describes a sketch-level spreadsheet model of a customer-friendly approach to toll-financed reconstruction, using realistic data and assumptions, applied to a generic mid-size state seeking to rebuild four long-distance interstates. The assumptions built into the model respond to the four trucking industry concerns. The model also addresses concerns of state departments of transportation over giving up some of their declining fuel tax revenues. It estimates the net present value (NPV) of fuel tax rebates over 30 years to be less than 7% of the NPV of toll revenues. Toll financing of interstate reconstruction also relieves state fuel tax revenues of the large costs of rebuilding aging interstates. This paper is intended to offer transportation policymakers a set of policy changes that respond to the legitimate aspects of the trucking industry’s expressed concerns.

Conceptual cost estimation of highway bid items – A systematic literature review

PurposeChallenges associated with ensuring the accuracy and reliability of cost estimation of highway construction bid items are of significant interest to state highway transportation agencies. Even with the existing research undertaken on the subject, the problem of inaccurate estimation of highway bid items still exists. This paper aims to assess the accuracy of the cost estimation methods employed in the selected studies to provide insights into how well they perform empirically. Additionally, this research seeks to identify, synthesize and assess the impact of the factors affecting highway unit prices because they affect the total cost of highway construction costs.Design/methodology/approachThis paper systematically searched, selected and reviewed 105 papers from Scopus, Google Scholar, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), Transportation Research Board (TRB) and Science Direct (SD) on conceptual cost estimation of highway bid items. This study used content and nonparametric statistical analyses to determine research trends, identify, categorize the factors influencing highway unit prices and assess the combined performance of conceptual cost prediction models.FindingsFindings from the trend analysis showed that between 1983 and 2019 North America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East contributed the most to improving highway cost estimation research. Aggregating the quantitative results and weighting the findings using each study's sample size revealed that the average error between the actual and the estimated project costs of Monte-Carlo simulation models (5.49%) performed better compared to the Bayesian model (5.95%), support vector machines (6.03%), case-based reasoning (11.69%), artificial neural networks (12.62%) and regression models (13.96%). This paper identified 41 factors and was grouped into three categories, namely: (1) factors relating to project characteristics; (2) organizational factors and (3) estimate factors based on the common classification used in the selected papers. The mean ranking analysis showed that most of the selected papers used project-specific factors more when estimating highway construction bid items than the other factors.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the body of knowledge by analyzing and comparing the performance of highway cost estimation models, identifying and categorizing a comprehensive list of cost drivers to stimulate future studies in improving highway construction cost estimates.

Bus Rapid Transit: An Overview

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is growing in popularity throughout the world. The reasons for this phenomenon include its passenger and developer attractiveness, its high performance and quality, and its ability to be built quickly, incrementally, and economically. BRT also provides sufficient transport capacity to meet demands in many corridors, even in the largest metropolitan regions. In the United States, the development of BRT projects has been spurred by the Federal Transit Administration’s (FTA) BRT initiative. These projects have been undertaken, in part, because of the imbalance between the demand for “New Starts” funds and available resources.Decisions to make BRT investments should be the result of a planning process that stresses problem solving, addressing needs, and the objective examination of a full range of potential solutions, of which BRT is only one. Good planning practice means matching potential market characteristics with available rights-of-way. BRT involves an integrated system of facilities, services, amenities, operations, and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) improvements that are designed to improve performance, attractiveness to passengers, image, and identity. Because they can be steered as well as guided, BRT vehicles can operate in a wide range of environments without forcing transfers or requiring expensive running way construction over the entire range of their operation. Through this flexibility, BRT can provide one-seat, high-quality transit performance over a geographic range beyond that of dedicated guideways. To the maximum extent practical, the system should transfer the service attributes of rail transit to BRT.Even where implementation of a comprehensive, integrated BRT system is not possible, many of its components can be adapted for use in conventional bus systems with attendant benefits in speed, reliability, and transit image/attractiveness.In summary, BRT is growing in popularity because it can be cost-effective and it works. This article describes BRT concepts and components, traces BRT’s evolution, gives its current status, and outlines some of the findings to date of the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) A-23 project, “Implementation Guidelines for Bus Rapid Transit.”

How to Implement Rapid Updates to Guideline Publications

MODERATOR: Emilie Gunn American Society of Clinical Oncology Alexandria, Virginia @emiliemgunn SPEAKERS: Jill Jackson Annals of Internal Medicine Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Dax Rodulfa-Blemberg American Society of Hematology Washington, DC Helen Macdonald BMJ United Kingdom REPORTER: Heather DiAngelis Transportation Research Board at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Washington, DC @hdiangelis As noted by Emilie Gunn, Director of Journals at the American Society of Clinical Oncology, it is becoming increasingly important for medical societies to implement rapid updates to guideline publications to provide the most current recommendations to clinicians and medical professionals. Medical societies have unique responsibilities to authors, readers, members, and patients, and publishers must balance the needs of each contingent; at the same time, journals need a way to streamline the publishing process while also driving citations and usage. Three speakers from medical journals presented about how their organizations were adapting their guideline publication processes to meet these challenges. Jill Jackson, Managing Editor for Annals of Internal Medicine, was the first presenter; she provided an overview of Annals’s processes and policies for updating living guidelines after publication, which began in 2020 and are also known as “practice points” within the journal. Jackson defined practice points as “living advice that regularly assesses and incorporates new evidence” and noted that they are designed to “provide clinical advice based on the best available evidence for the public, patients, clinicians, and public health professionals.” The editorial staff regularly reviews living guidelines to request updates, which sometimes involves the author creating a […]

Tweet, Tweet: Social Media Toolkit for CSE Professionals

MODERATOR: Jennifer A Regala Director of Publications/Executive Editor American Urological Association Linthicum, Maryland @JenniferARegala SPEAKERS: Heather DiAngelis Associate Director of Publications Transportation Research Board: National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine Washington, DC @hdiangelis Dana Compton Managing Director and Publisher American Society of Civil Engineering Reston, Virginia @danamcompton Angela D Cochran Vice President, Publishing American Society of Clinical Oncology Alexandria, Virginia @acochran12733 Jennifer A Regala REPORTER: Becky Fargen Journal Manager Elsevier Social media can be a useful tool for professionals to develop connections, build an audience, and promote their company’s publications, but it can be daunting to get started. This session discussed helpful dos, don’ts, examples, and case studies of using social media for science editors. To start, Heather DiAngelis gave a handy list of dos and don’ts of using social media as a platform for your organization. The takeaways were: DO choose a platform you can do well on, know your audience, be relatable, interact with others, and consider the timing; DON’T bash your colleagues, be disrespectful, bore people, or send unsolicited messages asking for their time or money. Knowing your audience was a key theme that was repeated in this talk. For example, Facebook might be better suited for only family and friends, whereas LinkedIn is tailored more for professional use. However, it is OK to occasionally tweet an amusing tidbit about a work woe that others can relate to or a funny story that happened at work—without bashing your coworkers or being overly negative. In addition […]

The Role of the Editor in Making Science Accessible

MODERATOR: Bill Kasdorf Kasdorf & Associates, LLC @billkasdorf SPEAKERS: Bill Kasdorf Jon McGlone University of Michigan Press Caroline Desrosiers Scribely @scribelytribe REPORTER: Heather DiAngelis Transportation Research Board at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Washington, DC @hdiangelis Bill Kasdorf of Kasdorf & Associates, LLC, kicked off the session by noting that accessibility makes publications better, easier to read and navigate, and even easier to understand. “Making content and systems accessible,” he said, “is no longer considered to be a special case for a very few people.” Accessibility should be ingrained in publications from the start so publishers can maintain efficiencies in workflows and provide universal accessibility. Kasdorf described the advantages of EPUB 3’s accessibility, including its reflowability across platforms and technologies; ability to change fonts, font sizes, and colors; and text and audio synchronization (Figure). To successfully achieve this, it is essential for heading levels and tables of contents to be correct for later EPUB tagging. Proper identification of cross-referenced links is also essential for later identification by screen readers. Kasdorf noted that another common problem with accessibility comes from tables—proper layout of tables ensures proper rendering by accessibility devices, while an improperly laid-out table can cause great confusion for readers. The editor should also assist accessibility by editing and refining the alt text image descriptions provided by the author. Jon McGlone, Digital Product Design Engineer and Accessibility Specialist at the University of Michigan Press, spoke second. He advised that publishers should do what they can for […]

Twelve-Year Analysis of Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting’s Official Hashtag

Twitter, among other social media platforms, has become more popular over time. Social media platforms underpin the way scholars share ideas, propagate the latest emergence of evidence, and adopt new practices, by providing a virtual platform for interacting, socializing, and sharing information from academic conferences with the outside world beyond the physical location. The Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting (TRBAM) is the largest annual conference for transportation engineering and science, and the hashtag for the conference, #TRBAM, was used first in 2009. This paper aims to perform an observational study based on the interactions on Twitter surrounding this hashtag by collecting all original #TRBAM tweets for 12 years (2009–2020). A general trend in the data is that the quantitative measures (tweets, retweets, and favorites) are all much higher during the conference month compared with other months. Top trending topics included: transit, safety, bike or non-motorized mode of transportation, data, and freight. Overall, the communication pattern shows more dispersion than the central tendency. The findings of this study highlight the need to implement and improve strategies to help transportation research communities encourage continuous and active participation during and after conferences. More active engagement among attendees will help maintain the momentum of information sharing and expand the traffic safety platform globally.

XML 101 for Journal Production Editors

MODERATOR: Julie L Nash Senior Partner J&J Editorial, LLC Cary, North Carolina SPEAKERS: Michael Casp Director of Business Development, Production Services Coordinator J&J Editorial, LLC Cary, North Carolina Karie Kirkpatrick Associate Publisher, Digital American Physiological Society Rockville, Maryland REPORTER: Heather DiAngelis Associate Publications Director, Transportation Research Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Washington, DC This session provided contextual overview, historical background, and best practice suggestions for XML novices in publishing. Michael Casp, Director of Business Development and Production Services Coordinator at J&J Editorial, began the session with a definition of extensible markup language (XML) and gave basic visual examples of how it is both a human-readable and machine-readable language. This mark-up language is everywhere—even in Microsoft Word. His boiled-down definition was “XML is labels.” He went on to explain various versions of XML document type definitions (DTDs) and various ways to organize them, such as NLM, JATS, and custom DTDs for content management systems. Journal article tag suite (JATS) is the most commonly used DTD for scholarly journal content; it has become the de facto XML standard in the scholarly publishing industry. Casp also discussed how peer review systems such as Editorial Manager collect metadata from authors and editorial staff and then convert them to XML files for transmittal. Afterward, a manuscript document is tagged either before or after copyediting, mostly via automation with human review, to create a new XML file of the text, tables, and metadata; as he noted, almost every item relevant to the […]

Financial Management for the Journals Office

MODERATOR: Dana Compton Managing Director and Publisher American Society of Civil Engineers Reston, Virginia SPEAKERS: Kathleen Gaffney Consultant KG Publishing Solutions New York, New York Erin Landis Vice President of Publications American Gastroenterological Association Bethesda, Maryland Dana Compton REPORTER: Heather DiAngelis Associate Publications Director, Transportation Research Board National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine Washington, DC At the Council of Science Editors’ 2021 Annual Meeting, 3 speakers from diverse organizations presented at the virtual session with the intent of providing an introduction to financial models, budgeting, profit and loss statements, and journal health assessment in order to maximize publication success. Kathleen Gaffney, Consultant at KG Publishing Solutions, kicked off the session with an overview of how to become involved with finances within an organization, even if it means starting small. She noted that one of the most important aspects for starting is understanding your organization’s journal goals and strategies. Every journal is unique in its finances; for instance, some journals are mission-driven while others are profit-driven. She went on to explain the difference between self-published societies (in-house publishing operations in which the society collects all revenue and pays all expenses) and contract publishing (in which a society is responsible for editorial content but a publisher collects all revenue and pays all expenses while making some payments to the society). Next, she discussed different journal ownership models for commercial and university publishers, including proprietary, society, society-controlled, and society-affiliated. Gaffney then introduced various journal publishing business models for obtaining revenue, including […]

Physical activity participation among Arab immigrants and refugees in Western societies: A scoping review.

Insufficient physical activity (PA) is the fourth prime risk factor for numerous non-communicable diseases. Arab immigrants and refugees (AIR) are at elevated risk for low or no participation in PA due to socio-cultural and ecological factors. This scoping review examined PA prevalence, knowledge, attitudes as well as barriers vs. facilitators to PA engagement across life domains among AIR in Western countries. A systematic search strategy was implemented across five automated databases (PubMed, Embase, Medline, Sociology Database and Transportation Research Board) to locate pertinent English language papers. Seventy-five articles were included in this study, and stakeholder consultation was conducted to validate the findings. The US and Europe are substantially ahead of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand in AIR-PA research. Despite showing positive attitudes and sound knowledge of PA recommendations, AIR exhibited a low PA engagement prevalence, revealing a knowledge-compliance gap. The prevalence of sufficient PA was lowest in the US (11-22%), whereas Europe showed the highest figures (26-45%). Personal barriers to PA participation involved mainstream language illiteracy and limited exercise skills, whereas improved PA literacy was a significant facilitator. Family responsibility and cultural restrictions were common psychosocial/cultural barriers, whereas social support and culturally-sensitive resources were powerful facilitators. Poorly maintained pedestrian/cyclist infrastructure was a leading environmental barrier amongst AIR in North America, but not Europe. Longitudinal and community-engaged AIR-PA research is needed, and intersectoral collaboration is required to inform tailored interventions and inclusive policies, fostering AIR and other vulnerable populations' exercise participation and improving their health and well-being.

Acoustic Modeling of Meteorological Effects on Roadway Noise

Modeling road traffic noise levels without including the effects of meteorology may lead to substantial errors. In the United States, the required model is the Traffic Noise Model which does not include meteorology effects caused by refraction. In response, the Transportation Research Board sponsored NCHRP 25-52, Meteorological Effects on Roadway Noise, to collect highway noise data under different meteorological conditions, document the meteorological effects on roadway noise propagation under different atmospheric conditions, develop best practices, and provide guidance on how to: (a) quantify meteorological effects on roadway noise propagation; and (b) explain those effects to the public. The completed project at 16 barrier and no-barrier measurement positions adjacent to Interstate 17 (I-17) in Phoenix, Arizona provided the database which has enabled substantial developments in modeling. This report provides more recent information on the model development that can be directly applied by the noise analyst to include meteorological effects from simple look-up tables to more precise use of statistical equations.

An efficient and robust method for predicting asphalt concrete dynamic modulus

ABSTRACT This study developed gradient decision tree boosting (GDTB) models to estimate dynamic moduli () of hot mix asphalt (HMA) mixtures. The GDTB used as input the binder properties, mixture volumetric, and aggregate gradation of the mixtures. The data used for training the GDTB were extracted from a report of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) project 9-19 [Witczak, M., 2006. Simple performance tests: summary of recommended methods and database. Washington, D.C.: Transportation Research Board, No. 547 in NCHRP Report.]. Totally, 7400 records of data for 346 mixtures were involved, among which 6700 were randomly chosen for training, 200 for validation, and 500 for testing. Comparative analyses were conducted among the GDTB, the two Witczak's equations, and two neural networks (NNs). This study emphasized both the predictive accuracy and computation efficiency of the models. The results indicated that the GDTB achieved predictive accuracy that was significantly higher than the Witczak's models and was in parallel to the more complex NNs. Compared to the Witczak's equations, for the viscosity-based model, the GDTB increased the coefficients of determination () by 51.5% (arithmetic) and 11.5% (logarithmic), respectively; for the based model, it respectively increased the by 22.5% (arithmetic) and 8% (logarithmic). Besides the enhanced predictive accuracy, the GDTB only marginally increased the computing time comparing with the empirical equations.

Bridge Load Testing: State-of-the-Practice

Bridge load testing can answer a variety of questions about bridge behavior that cannot be answered otherwise. The current governing codes and guidelines for bridge load testing in the United States are the 1998 NCHRP Manual for Bridge Rating through Load Testing and Chapter 8 of the AASHTO Manual for Bridge Evaluation. Over the last two decades, the practice of load testing has evolved, and its intersections with other fields have expanded. The outcomes of load tests have been used to keep bridges open cost-effectively without unnecessarily restricting legal loads, when theoretical analyses cannot yield insights representative of in-service performance. Load testing data can be further used to develop field-verified finite-element models of tested bridges to understand these structures better. In addition, structural reliability concepts can be used to estimate the probability of failure based on the results of load tests, and noncontact measurement techniques capturing large surfaces of bridges allow for better monitoring of structural responses. Given these developments, a new Transportation Research Board (TRB) Circular, Primer on Bridge Load Testing, has been developed. This document contains new proposals for interpreting the results of diagnostic load tests, loading protocols, and the determination of bridge load ratings based on the results of proof load tests. In addition, included provisions provide an estimation of the resulting reliability index and the remaining service life of a bridge based on load testing results. The benefit of load testing is illustrated based on a cost-benefit analysis. The current state-of-The-practice has demonstrated that load testing is an effective means for answering many important questions regarding bridge behavior that are critical to decisions on bridge maintenance or replacement. Load testing has evolved over its history, and the newly developed TRB Circular reflects this evolution in a practical way.

Driving Cessation and Social Participation in Late Life: A Systematic Review

Driving cessation is a major life transition in late life, and can affect the quality of social life in older adults. The present study aims to systematically review the literature on how driving cessation affects social participation among older adults in the US. The study selection followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). Extant literature published from 1990 to 2019 that examined driving cessation and social participation or social engagement among older adults in the US was searched using eight search engines: PsycINFO, CINAHL, SocIndex, AgeLine, MedLine, Scopus, Transportation Research Board Publication Index, and Cochrane Library. Quantitative studies that met the inclusion criteria were reviewed. The assessment of methodological quality was also conducted for included studies. In total, seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Six of the included studies found significant relationships between driving cessation and at least one domain of social participation, such as volunteering, employment, leisure-time activities, and the frequency of contacts. However, the measures of social participation were inconsistent across studies, which might explain that no effects of driving cessation were found on the structure of social network, such as contacts with friends and extended family. There is a need to assist older adults in successfully transitioning to driving cessation and maintaining the social participation. The overall quality of included studies is moderate based on the assessment of risk of bias and confounding.

Research status of transportation field based on keyword co-occurrence analysis

Transportation is the leading and basic industry in the national economy. It is an indispensable and irreplaceable part of social production and living organization system. The macro analysis of the literature in the field of transportation can provide a new perspective for researchers and managers. This paper uses vosviewer software, based on the keyword co-occurrence relationship of literature, to cluster the conference documents published by the Transportation Research Board of the United States from 2015 to 2019, and analyze in detail eight key areas, including aviation, highway, marine transportation, motor carriers, pedestrians and bicyclists, pipelines, public transportation and railroads. The above analysis reveals the research status of the whole and 8 key sub fields in the field of transportation, so as to provide support for science and technology planning and decision-making in the field of transportation.

Analysis of research frontier trend in transportation field based on knowledge mapping method

Identifying the research frontier trends in the field of transportation can provide researchers with new perspectives and innovation points, and provide information support for decision-making of scientific research planning managers. In this paper, the visual knowledge map analysis method is used to analyze the conference documents published by the Transportation Research Board of the United States from 2015 to 2019, and analyze in detail eight key areas, including aviation, highway, marine transportation, motor carriers, pedestrians and bicyclists, pipelines, public transportation and railroads. The above analysis reveals the research frontier trends of the whole and 8 key sub fields in the field of transportation.

Regulatory Harmonization and Collaborative Governance: Exploring the Shared Micromobility Policy Practices for Post-pandemic Deployment

Local governments across the United States took vastly different approaches to the regulation of dockless e-scooter sharing, resulting in a patchwork of regulatory policies. While recent literature suggested, there is evidence of convergence amongst cities with similar characteristics, the extent of harmonized jurisdictional e-scooter policies had not yet been investigated. With the future of public and shared transportation already tenuous due to COVID-19, this paper investigates the different rules and regulations threatening the resurgence of fleet operations in neighboring jurisdictions. The research team first explored precedent and mechanisms for transportation harmonization at different levels of government, and second, studied the degree of harmonization of neighboring jurisdictions. The paper uses a comparative multi-case study approach of six neighbor pairs to uncover patterns of harmonization between neighboring jurisdictions. Findings indicate a convergence of harmonization between equal-sized cities appears more frequently than disparate cities, supporting previous research. Also, pairs in states which follow Dillon's Rule show alignment in the device, safety, insurance, and right-of-way policies, whereas home rule neighbors more frequently diverge from each other. These findings highlight the need to understand regional policy harmonization better. Submitted for presentation at the 100th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board and for publication at the Transportation Research Record journal

Case Study of Trend Mining in Transportation Research Record Articles

This study employs two topic models to perform trend mining on an abundance of textual data to determine trends in research topics from immense collections of unstructured documents over the years. This study collected data from the titles and abstracts of the papers published in Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, since 1974. The content of these papers was ideal for examining research trends in various fields of research because it contains large textual data. In previous studies, exploratory analysis tools such as text mining were used to provide descriptive information about the data. However, this method does not provide researchers with quantifications of the topics and their correlations. Furthermore, the contents examined in this study are largely unstructured, and therefore they require faster machine learning algorithms to decipher them. For these reasons, the research team chose to employ two topic modeling tools, latent Dirichlet allocation and structural topic model, to perform trend mining. This analysis succeeded in extracting 20 main topics, identified by keywords, from the data. The research team also developed two interactive topic model visualization tools that can be used to extract topics from journal titles and abstracts, respectively. The findings from this study provide researchers with a further understanding of research patterns within ever-evolving area of transportation engineering studies.

Estudo da separação entre pistas de pouso e decolagem e de taxiamento em aeródromos brasileiros – aplicação ao Aeroporto Internacional de Fortaleza

Inadequações relativas ao projeto geométrico podem ser consideradas comuns em aeroportos pelo mundo. No Brasil, alguns aeroportos apresentam inconformidades de separação entre eixos de pistas de pouso e decolagem e de taxiamento paralelas que são inferiores aos requisitos exigidos pela Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil. Este trabalho objetiva avaliar o impacto de tal situação no risco de colisões associado a operações simultâneas de aeronaves em condições de operação por instrumentos. Para tanto, foi utilizado um método de análise de risco proposto pelo Airport Cooperative Research Program do Transportation Research Board com aeronaves de três categorias distintas que operam no Aeroporto Internacional de Fortaleza. Percebeu-se que há probabilidades reduzidas de acidentes acontecerem nestas condições, sendo o método apresentado um meio relevante para a análise quantitativa dos riscos operacionais em tais situações de inconformidade, podendo esta abordagem ser aplicada em casos similares.