Transmission Of Rabies Virus Research Articles

Identification of clade-defining single nucleotide polymorphisms for improved rabies virus surveillance

BackgroundRabies is an ancient disease that remains endemic in many countries. It causes many human deaths annually, predominantly in resource-poor countries. Over evolutionary timelines, several rabies virus (RABV) genotypes have stabilised, forming distinct clades. Extensive studies have been conducted on the origin, occurrence and spread of RABV clades. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distribution across the RABV genome and its clades remains largely unknown, highlighting the need for comprehensive whole-genome analyses. MethodsWe accessed whole genome sequences for RABV from public databases and identified SNPs across the whole genome sequences. Then, we annotated these SNPs using an R script, and these SNPs were categorised into different categories; universal, clade-specific, and clade-defining, based on the frequency of occurrence. ResultsIn this study, we present the SNPs occurring in the RABV based on whole genome sequences belonging to 8 clades isolated from 7 different host species likely to harbour dog-related rabies. We classified mutations into several classes based on their location within the genome and assessed the effect of SNP mutations on the viral glycoprotein. ConclusionsThe clade-defining mutations have implications for targeted surveillance and classification of clades. Additionally, we investigated the effects of these mutations on the Glycoprotein of the virus. Our findings contribute to expanding knowledge about RABV clade diversity and evolution, which has significant implications for effectively tracking and combatting RABV transmission.

The Silent Threat: Unraveling the Impact of Rabies in Herbivores in Brazil.

Rabies, a zoonotic viral disease, poses a significant threat due to its adaptability to diverse environments. Herbivore rabies, predominantly affecting cattle, horses, and goats in Brazil, remains a concern, results in substantial losses in the livestock industry, and poses risks to public health. Rabies virus transmission, primarily through hematophagous bats in Latin America, underscores the need for effective strategies, and vaccination plays a crucial role in controlling herbivorous rabies, with systematic vaccination beingly the primary method. Efforts to control rabies in herbivores include vaccination campaigns, public awareness programs, and the enhancement of surveillance systems. Despite these initiatives, rabies persists and imposes an economic burden and a significant health risk. Economic impacts include losses in the livestock industry, trade restrictions on livestock products, and financial burdens on governments and farmers owing to control measures. Despite the considerable costs of campaigns, surveillance, and control, investing in rabies vaccination and control not only safeguards livestock, but also preserves public health, reduces human cases, and strengthens the sustainability of the livestock industry. Mitigating the impact of herbivorous rabies in Brazil requires integrated approaches and continuous investments in vaccination, surveillance, and control measures to protect public health and ensure the sustainability of the livestock industry, thus contributing to food and economic security.

Investigation of Rabies virus in wild mammals of the atlantic forest in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

With the successful control of rabies transmitted by dogs in Brazil, wild animals have played a relevant epidemiological role in the transmission of rabies virus (RABV). Bats, non-human primates and wild canines are the main wild animals that transmit RABV in the country. It is worth highlighting the possibility of synanthropic action of these species, when they become adapted to urban areas, causing infections in domestic animals and eventually in humans. This work aimed to evaluate the circulation of RABV in the Pedra Branca Forest, an Atlantic Forest area, located in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Southeast Brazil. Saliva and blood samples were obtained from 60 individuals of eight species of bats, captured with mist nets, and 13 individuals of callitrichid primates, captured with tomahawk traps. Saliva samples were subjected to Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR), targeting the RABV N gene, with all samples being negative. Blood samples of all animals were submitted to the Rapid Fluorescent Focus Inhibition Test (RFFIT) to detect neutralizing antibodies (Ab) for RABV. Six bat samples (8%) were seropositive for RABV with antibody titers greater than or equal to 0.1 IU/mL. The detection of Ab but not viral RNA indicates exposure rather than current RABV transmission in the analyzed populations. The results presented here reinforce the importance of serological studies in wildlife to access RABV circulation in a region.

Home range overlap between small Indian mongooses and free roaming domestic dogs in Puerto Rico: implications for rabies management

The small Indian mongoose (Urva auropunctata) is the primary terrestrial wildlife rabies reservoir on at least four Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico. In Puerto Rico, mongooses represent a risk to public health, based on direct human exposure and indirectly through the transmission of rabies virus to domestic animals. To date, the fundamental ecological relationships of space use among mongooses and between mongooses and domestic animals remain poorly understood. This study is the first to report mongoose home range estimates based on GPS telemetry, as well as concurrent space use among mongooses and free roaming domestic dogs (FRDD; Canis lupus familiaris). Mean (± SE) home range estimates from 19 mongooses in this study (145 ± 21 ha and 60 ± 14 ha for males and females, respectively) were greater than those reported in prior radiotelemetry studies in Puerto Rico. At the scale of their home range, mongooses preferentially used dry forest and shrubland areas, but tended to avoid brackish water vegetation, salt marshes, barren lands and developed areas. Home ranges from five FRDDs were highly variable in size (range 13–285 ha) and may be influenced by availability of reliable anthropogenic resources. Mongooses displayed high home range overlap (general overlap index, GOI = 82%). Home range overlap among mongooses and FRDDs was intermediate (GOI = 50%) and greater than home range overlap by FRDDs (GOI = 10%). Our results provide evidence that space use by both species presents opportunities for interspecific interaction and contact and suggests that human provisioning of dogs may play a role in limiting interactions between stray dogs and mongooses.

RABIES VIRUS SEROSURVEY OF THE SMALL INDIAN MONGOOSE (URVA AUROPUNCTATA) ACROSS MULTIPLE HABITATS IN PUERTO RICO, 2014-21.

The small Indian mongoose (Urva auropuncata) is a rabies reservoir in Puerto Rico and accounts for over 70% of reported animal rabies cases annually. The presence of rabies virus-neutralizing antibodies (RVNA) is often used as a tool to measure exposure to rabies virus in wildlife populations. We conducted a serosurvey of mongooses at 11 sites representing six habitat types across Puerto Rico. We collected a serum sample from 464 individual mongooses during 2014-21. Overall, 80/464 (17.0%; 95% confidence interval, 14.1-20.9%; 55 male, 23 female, and two sexes not recorded) of individual mongooses sampled across all habitats were RVNA positive. The geometric mean (SD) RVNA titer for 80 unique seropositive animals was 0.58 (2.92) IU/mL. Our models indicated that the probability of mongooses being RVNA seropositive mostly varied by habitat, with some influence of sex in the individual-level analyses. Population-level RVNA seroprevalence is dynamic in mongoose populations, but these data may shed light on rabies virus transmission across regions to help inform rabies management activities in Puerto Rico.

A review of human dog-bite injuries in Kitui South subcounty, Kenya (2017-2021).

Dog bites continue to be a serious public health issue due to their association with the transmission of rabies virus. In Kenya, there are no studies estimating dog-bite incidence. Annual mortalities resulting from dog-mediated rabies are estimated at 523 (95% confidence interval 134-1100). The main objective of this study was to assess major risk factors associated with dog bites in Kitui South subcounty, Kenya, between 2017 and 2021. We recruited 387 dog-bite patients (cases) and 387 non-bite patients (controls) for the case-control study from the Mutomo Mission Hospital and the Ikutha Level 4 Hospital records. Multivariable logistic regression analysis evaluated the association between risk factors and dog-bite cases. In the final model, pairwise interactions among variables were evaluated. The model fit was evaluated using receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve. The study found that the dog-bite incidence was highest in Kanziko ward in Kitui South subcounty. Fifty-one percent (108 bites) of dog-bite victims were children under 15 years of age, with 53% (N = 68) being men and 36% (N = 77) being bitten on the limbs. Dog bites mostly (44%, N = 93) occurred between October and December (short rainy season). Age group and season were identified as the most significant variables for high dog-bite incidence in Kitui South subcounty. Promotion of responsible dog ownership and reinforcement of dog control policies may prove more effective in reducing dog-bite injuries in Kitui South subcounty.

Dynamic analysis of rabies transmission and elimination in mainland China

Rabies is an acute zoonotic infectious disease caused by rabies virus. In 2015, the World Health Organization proposed the goal of eliminating dog-induced human rabies by 2030. In response to this goal positively, China has been dedicated to the control and elimination of rabies mainly caused by dogs, for nearly 10 years. By applying infectious disease dynamics, in this paper, we establish a dog-human rabies transmission model to forecast future epidemic trends of rabies, assess whether the goal of eliminating dog-induced human rabies cases in China can be achieved in 2030, and further evaluate and suggest the follow-up sustained preventive measures after the elimination of human rabies. By analyzing and simulating above dynamic model, it is concluded that rabies has been well controlled in China in recent years, but dog-induced human rabies cannot be eliminated by 2030 according to current situation. In addition, we propose to improve rabies control efforts by increasing the immunization coverage rate of rural domestic dogs, controlling the number of stray dogs and preventing the import of rabies virus in wild animals. Immunization coverage rate of rural domestic dogs which is currently less than 10% is far from requirement, and it needs to reach 50%–60% to meet the goal of 2030. Since it is difficult to immunize stray dogs, we suggest to control the number of stray dogs below 15.27 million to achieve the goal. If the goal of eliminating human rabies is reached in 2030, the essential immunization coverage needs to be maintained for 18 years to reduce the number of canine rabies cases to zero. Lastly, to prevent transmission of rabies virus from wild animals to dogs, the thresholds of the number of dogs and the immunization coverage rate of dogs after eliminating canine rabies cases are also discussed.

Defining County-Level Terrestrial Rabies Freedom Using the US National Rabies Surveillance System: Surveillance Data Analysis

Rabies is a deadly zoonotic disease with nearly 100% fatality rate. In the United States, rabies virus persists in wildlife reservoirs, with occasional spillover into humans and domestic animals. The distribution of reservoir hosts in US counties plays an important role in public health decision-making, including the recommendation of lifesaving postexposure prophylaxis upon suspected rabies exposures. Furthermore, in surveillance data, it is difficult to discern whether counties have no cases reported because rabies was not present or because counties have an unreported rabies presence. These epizootics are monitored by the National Rabies Surveillance System (NRSS), to which approximately 130 state public health, agriculture, and academic laboratories report animal rabies testing statistics. Historically, the NRSS classifies US counties as free from terrestrial rabies if, over the previous 5 years, they and any adjacent counties did not report any rabies cases and they tested ≥15 reservoir animals or 30 domestic animals. This study aimed to describe and evaluate the historical NRSS rabies-free county definition, review possibilities for improving this definition, and develop a model to achieve more precise estimates of the probability of terrestrial rabies freedom and the number of reported county-level terrestrial rabies cases. Data submitted to the NRSS by state and territorial public health departments and the US Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services were analyzed to evaluate the historical rabies-free definition. A zero-inflated negative binomial model created county-level predictions of the probability of rabies freedom and the expected number of rabies cases reported. Data analyzed were from all animals submitted for laboratory diagnosis of rabies in the United States from 1995 to 2020 in skunk and raccoon reservoir territories, excluding bats and bat variants. We analyzed data from 14,642 and 30,120 county-years in the raccoon and skunk reservoir territories, respectively. Only 0.85% (9/1065) raccoon county-years and 0.79% (27/3411) skunk county-years that met the historical rabies-free criteria reported a case in the following year (99.2% negative predictive value for each), of which 2 were attributed to unreported bat variants. County-level model predictions displayed excellent discrimination for detecting zero cases and good estimates of reported cases in the following year. Counties classified as rabies free rarely (36/4476, 0.8%) detected cases in the following year. This study concludes that the historical rabies freedom definition is a reasonable approach for identifying counties that are truly free from terrestrial raccoon and skunk rabies virus transmission. Gradations of risk can be measured using the rabies prediction model presented in this study. However, even counties with a high probability of rabies freedom should maintain rabies testing capacity, as there are numerous examples of translocations of rabies-infected animals that can cause major changes in the epidemiology of rabies.

Incidence of dog bite injuries and its associated factors in Punjab province of Pakistan

Dog bites are a major cause for transmission of rabies virus to humans. Pakistan ranks fifth among most rabies affected countries in the world. There are a few regional (ecological) studies that investigated factors that explain geographic disparities in incidence of dog bite injuries. The main objective of this research was to document findings of spatial exploratory data analysis of incidence of reported cases of dog bite in Punjab province of Pakistan (2016–2019). In addition, we have quantified the association between incidence of dog bites and a set of selected socio-economic and demographic variables. District-wise data about reported cases of dog bites from 2016 to 2019 were used to map annual crude incidence per 100,000 of population. There was an obvious spatial variation in incidence of dog bites but there was no evidence of spatial autocorrelation. The risk of dog bite attacks was relatively higher in districts with low human population density (per sq. km), poor literacy rate, more rural population (% of total population), and lower median nighttime lights.

Geographic Range Overlap Rather than Phylogenetic Distance Explains Rabies Virus Transmission among Closely Related Bat Species.

The cross-species transmission (CST) of pathogens can have dramatic consequences, as highlighted by recent disease emergence events affecting human, animal and plant health. Understanding the ecological and evolutionary factors that increase the likelihood of disease agents infecting and establishing in a novel host is therefore an important research area. Previous work across different pathogens, including rabies virus (RABV), found that increased evolutionary distance between hosts reduces the frequency of cross-species transmission and of permanent host shifts. However, whether this effect of host relatedness still holds for transmission among recently diverged hosts is not well understood. We aimed to ask if high host relatedness can still increase the probability of a host shift between more recently diverged hosts, and the importance of this effect relative to ecological predictors. We first addressed this question by quantifying the CST frequency of RABV between North American bat species within the genus Myotis, using a multi-decade data set containing 128 nucleoprotein (N) RABV sequences from ten host species. We compared RABV CST frequency within Myotis to the rates of CST between nine genera of North American bat species. We then examined whether host relatedness or host range overlap better explains the frequency of CST seen between Myotis species. We found that at the within genus scale, host range overlap, rather than host relatedness best explains the frequency of CST events. Moreover, we found evidence of CST occurring among a higher proportion of species, and CST more frequently resulting in sustained transmission in the novel host in the Myotis dataset compared to the multi-genus dataset. Our results suggest that among recently diverged species, the ability to infect a novel host is no longer restricted by physiological barriers but instead is limited by physical contact. Our results improve predictions of where future CST events for RABV might occur and clarify the relationship between host divergence and pathogen emergence.

Long-term humoral immunogenicity, safety and protective efficacy of inactivated vaccine against reindeer rabies.

The core element of the reindeer rabies eradication strategy is regular application of vaccines to obtain and uphold a vaccination coverage sufficient for the ceasing of rabies virus transmission. This article presents the results of reindeer humoral immunity intensity and duration study after the immunization with two form of inactivated rabies vaccines (adjuvanted liquid vaccine and non-adjuvanted lyophilized vaccine) based on the Shchelkovo-51 rabies virus strain. Efficiency of post-vaccine immunity was assessed by measuring the animal blood serum virus-neutralizing antibody level in a neutralization test. The study determined the efficient rabies vaccine injection dose as equal to 3 ml. A single dose of 3 ml of these vaccines induced stable production of specific neutralizing antibodies in reindeer as early as 7 day after administration, and by 30 days after immunization, it significantly exceeded the minimal threshold level accepted by OIE. Two doses of vaccines administration with an interval of 30 days are required to achieve a strong immunity with the rabies-specific virus-neutralizing antibody titer of more than 0.5 IU/ml for at least 2 years. Our data do not support the benefit of an adjuvanted vaccine for the prevention of rabies in reindeer.

Of love and other demons: depicting human rabies in Colombia

Human rabies has been described by various cultures in many countries around the world. Gabriel García Márquez's novel Of love and other demons recounts the story of a girl who, in colonial Colombia in the 18th century, was bitten by a rabid dog. This paper aims to review the general status of the disease in Colombia and interweave it with García Márquez's book. Developed countries have successfully controlled dog-mediated rabies virus transmission, whereas in some countries in Latin America wildlife and canine rabies are still an issue. Our approach suggests that although the measures that have been taken to mitigate dog-transmitted rabies have worked well in most parts of the world, greater efforts are required to control sylvatic rabies transmitted by bats or other mammals, as occurs in Colombia. Since developing countries are the most affected by the disease at present, transdisciplinary commitment between human and veterinary sectors is necessary to fight against rabies virus transmission.

Epidemiology of Animal Bite Cases of Children Attending Tertiary Care Center of Bangalore Medical College and Research Institute, Bengaluru: A Retrospective Study

Background Rabies or hydrophobia is an acute highly fatal viral illness of the central nervous system caused by Lyssavirus type 1. About 30ndash60 of rabies cases and deaths in India occur in children under the age of 15 years. Bites that occur in children go unrecognized and unreported. In up to 99 of the cases inland dogs are accountable for rabies virus transmission to humans.Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological pattern of animal bite cases of children up to 15 years of age attending the anti-rabies clinic. Methods A record-based retrospective study was undertaken in February 2022 from registers maintained in the anti-rabies clinic ARC of a tertiary care hospital.Results In this study out of 656 bite victims upto 70.3 were male children and about 29.70 were female children. 65.50 of the children were between 6ndash12 years of age. 98.5 of the cases were bitten by the dog. Based on area-wise distribution most of the victims came from urban Bangalore 69.5 among them 34.8 were referred for rabies immunoglobulin where the vaccination status was unknown. 95.70 of cases belong to category-3. Only 29.4 of the cases completed the anti-rabies vaccine schedule. The study also showed that the majority of bites are reported during April and May.Conclusion In our study we found that the majority of the bite victims are school-going children and most incidents were during summer vacations. Hence more awareness to be given to the public and in schools for the primary prevention of animal bites.

Every Dog Has Its Data: Evaluation of a Technology-Aided Canine Rabies Vaccination Campaign to Implement a Microplanning Approach

Background: Robust dog vaccination coverage is the primary way to eliminate canine rabies. Haiti conducts annual canine mass vaccination campaigns, but still has the most human deaths in the Latin American and Caribbean region. We conducted an evaluation of dog vaccination methods in Haiti to determine if more intensive, data-driven vaccination methods, using smartphones for data reporting and geo-communication, could increase vaccination coverage to a level capable of disrupting rabies virus transmission.Methods: Two cities were designated into “Traditional” and “Technology-aided” vaccination areas. Traditional areas utilized historical methods of vaccination staff management, whereas Technology-aided areas used smartphone-supported spatial coordination and management of vaccination teams. Smartphones enabled real time two-way geo-communication between campaign managers and vaccinators. Campaign managers provided geographic instruction to vaccinators by assigning mapped daily vaccination boundaries displayed on phone handsets, whilst vaccinators uploaded spatial data of dogs vaccinated for review by the campaign manager to inform assignment of subsequent vaccination zones. The methods were evaluated for vaccination effort, coverage, and cost.Results: A total of 11,420 dogs were vaccinated during the 14-day campaign. The technology-aided approach achieved 80% estimated vaccination coverage as compared to 44% in traditional areas. Daily vaccination rate was higher in Traditional areas (41.7 vaccinations per team-day) compared to in technology-aided areas (26.8) but resulted in significantly lower vaccination coverages. The cost per dog vaccinated increased exponentially with the associated vaccination coverage, with a cost of $1.86 to achieve 25%, $2.51 for 50% coverage, and $3.19 for 70% coverage.Conclusions: Traditional vaccination methods failed to achieve sufficiently high vaccination coverages needed to interrupt sustained rabies virus transmission, whilst the technology-aided approach increased coverage above this critical threshold. Over successive campaigns, this difference is likely to represent the success or failure of the intervention in eliminating the rabies virus. Technology-aided vaccination should be considered in resource limited settings where rabies has not been controlled by Traditional vaccination methods. The use of technology to direct health care workers based on near-real-time spatial data from the field has myriad potential applications in other vaccination and public health initiatives.

Rabia en perros y gatos en Brasil: Análisis descriptivo

The easy transmission of rabies virus among domestic and street dogs and cats, in which it causes pathogenic dissemination even to humans is a major public health problem in Brazil. The Brazilian epidemiology carried out through the prophylaxis of rabies vaccination campaigns has enabled the significant change in the pictures of infected animals notified to the Ministries of Health, Livestock Agriculture and Supply. Although notified, the pictures need to be investigated and potentially correlated with the human pictures also infected and failures of annual vaccination supplies. In this descriptive analysis, it was observed that as a priority the Northeast region led with the highest number of cases of rabies virus in the 3 years analyzed (2017-2018-2019). Thus, it is observed that even with positive national coverage, confirmed cases were still obtained, except for an ideal regulation and maintenance of cases where no confirmed cases were obtained. It is concluded that zoonotic diseases are gradually decreasing as their prophylaxis maintains its linear.

Numerical and theoretical analysis of Rabies model under the harmonic mean type incidence rate

In recent years, rabies virus transmission has affected the community widely. Therefore, the study of this deadly virus transmission acquires a significant place in the epidemic spreading. One way to know about the inner sight of such diseases is to consider them mathematically. In this research, we develop a mathematical model for rabies transmission under harmonic mean type incidence rate and consider its qualitative behavior. Using the Next Generation matrix technique, we have derived the threshold number R0 for the given model. Local and Global stabilities for the disease-free equilibrium are discussed using the Castillo-Chavez method. We have further derived the conditions under which R0>1 and have shown that the model is locally and globally stable at an endemic equilibrium point. For stability, a geometrical approach which is the generalization of Lyapunov theory is used by using a third additive compound matrix. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 is carried out and some important parameters are discussed in the last section.

Benefit–Risk Assessment of the French Surveillance Protocol of Apparently Healthy Biting Dogs and Cats for Human Rabies Prevention

In France, apparently healthy dogs and cats that bite humans must undergo an observation period of 15 days with three veterinary visits to ascertain that they remain healthy, indicating that no zoonotic transmission of rabies virus occurred via salivary presymptomatic excretion. This surveillance protocol is mandatory for all pets that have bitten humans, despite France’s rabies-free status in non-flying mammals (i.e., a very low rabies risk). In this context, we aimed to perform a benefit–risk assessment of the existing regulatory surveillance protocol of apparently healthy biting animals, as well as alternative surveillance protocols. A scenario-tree modelling approach was used to consider the possible successions of events between a dog or cat bite and a human death attributed to either rabies or to lethal harm associated with the surveillance protocol (e.g., lethal traffic accidents when traveling to veterinary clinics or anti-rabies centers). The results demonstrated that the current French surveillance protocol was not beneficial, as more deaths were generated (traffic accidents) than avoided (by prompt post-exposure prophylaxis administration). We showed here that less stringent risk-based surveillance could prove more appropriate in a French context. The results in this study could allow policy-makers to update and optimize rabies management legislation.

Correction to: Abundance of the common vampire bat and feeding prevalence on cattle along a gradient of landscape disturbance in southeastern Mexico

Cattle ranching is one of the main production activities in the Neotropics that has unavoidably led to cattle exposure to the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) and rabies virus. Although many studies have assessed this issue, the influence of environmental characteristics associated with land use and social and production constraints have received little attention. We used satellite imagery classification to identify a gradient of landscape disturbance and analyzed the effects of cattle management and landscape structure on common vampire bat abundance and feeding prevalence. Evidence of the common vampire bat feeding on cattle was common in the study area: 87.5% of the ranchers interviewed claimed to have experienced this problem. The abundance and feeding prevalence of the common vampire bat was lower in landscapes dominated by open fields, scarce forest cover, and agricultural land. Bat abundance was positively associated with the presence of streams in the proximity of grazing areas, whereas cave’s presence was associated with higher feeding prevalence. We suggest that cattle grazing should avoid the proximity of streams, caves, and forests as much as possible, as these conditions increase the exposure of cattle to the common vampire bat and the potential for feeding, which can increase the likelihood of rabies virus transmission.

Biosensor as an alternative diagnostic method for rabies virus detection: A literature review.

Rabies virus as a neurotropic agent causes rabies in humans and animals. Rabies virus transmission usually occurs through direct contact with saliva of rabid animals. However, serological and molecular tests commonly are used in diagnosing rabies but all the detection methods of rabies have some limitations. It is necessary to develop a rapid, effective, and low-cost biosensor as an alternative tool to detect rabies virus. In this review, we studied related biosensor researches to rabies virus detection for comparing it with other detection test including serological and molecular methods. Given that very limited studies have been conducted in this field, biosensors as quick, effective, and high sensitivity tools can be used in diagnostic of rabies as an alternative tool instead of other detection methods. According to the important role of rapid detection of rabies in the control of infection and public health measures, development of a biosensor as a quick tool can be very significant in the diagnosis of rabies.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rabies reemergence in Latin America: The case of Arequipa, Peru.

In Latin America, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies. Major components of rabies elimination programs leading to these successes have been constant and regular surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. Unfortunately, vital measures to control COVID-19 have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. We aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics to create a conceptual framework for how different disruptions may affect rabies virus transmission. We parameterized the model for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, a city with active rabies virus transmission. We examined our results over a range of plausible values for R0 (1.36–2.0). Also, we prospectively evaluated surveillance data during the pandemic to detect temporal changes. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies within months. These results were consistent over all plausible values of R0. Surveillance data from late 2020 and early 2021 confirms that in Arequipa, Peru, rabies cases are on an increasing trajectory. The rising rabies trends in Arequipa, if indicative to the region as whole, suggest that the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies may be in jeopardy.