Transmission Of Monetary Policy Shocks Research Articles

International transmission of monetary policy shocks and the bank lending channel: Evidence from Australia

International transmission of monetary policy shocks and the bank lending channel: Evidence from Australia

The transmission of monetary policy shocks through the markets for reserves and money

This paper identifies supply and demand curves for bank reserves and a Divisia aggregate of monetary services within a structural vector autoregressive time-series model. Estimated over four sample periods spanning 1967 through 2020, the model illustrates how monetary policy actions can be interpreted with reference to their initial impact on bank reserves and the federal funds rate and their subsequent effects on Divisia money, nominal consumption spending, the aggregate nominal price level, and the unemployment rate. Model estimates attribute strong inflationary effects to monetary policy in the late 1960s and 1970s and also show that changes in the supply of reserves associated with the Fed's large-scale asset purchases since 2008 worked, as intended, to offset deflationary pressures and reduce unemployment. The model describes a much richer monetary policy process than one focused on interest rates alone.

Asymmetries in the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Over the Business Cycle: A Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR

Asymmetries in the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Over the Business Cycle: A Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR

Revisiting of Interest Rate Channel: Nonlinear transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks to the Turkish Economy

Abstract This study examines the effectiveness of non-linear monetary policy interest rate channel shocks for the Turkish economy using the threshold VAR analysis in the period of 2006-2019. The interest channel is examined with the two models for both consumption transfer and investment transfer models. The results show that the interest rate channel is effective in the high regime (high macroeconomic instability) for the consumption transfer model, and it is partially effective in the low regime (low macroeconomic instability). On the other hand, for the model with investment expenditures flow, the interest rate channel is partially effective in both high and low regimes.

Monetary Policy and Homeownership: Empirical Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications

We show that monetary policy affects homeownership decisions and argue that this effect is an important and overlooked channel of monetary policy transmission. We first document that monetary policy shocks are a substantial driver of fluctuations in the U.S. homeownership rate and that monetary policy affects households' housing tenure choices. We then develop and calibrate a two-agent New Keynesian model that can replicate the estimated transmission of monetary policy shocks to homeownership rates and housing rents. We find that the calibrated model provides an explanation to the "price puzzle" and delivers two important results with policy implications. First, the homeownership decision channel amplifies the redistributive effects of monetary policy, with contractionary shocks benefiting more outright homeowners and disadvantaging more renters and homeowners with a mortgage. Second, a monetary authority that reacts to a price index that includes housing rents generates excess house price, rents, and output volatility and larger real effects.

The importance of hiring frictions in business cycles

Hiring is a costly activity reflecting firms' investment in their workers. Microdata show that hiring costs involve production disruption. Thus, cyclical fluctuations in the value of output, induced by price frictions, have consequences for the optimal allocation of hiring activities. We outline a mechanism based on cyclical markup fluctuations, placing emphasis on hiring frictions interacting with price frictions. This mechanism generates strong propagation and amplification of all key macroeconomic variables in response to technology shocks and mutes the traditional transmission of monetary policy shocks. A local projection analysis of aggregate U.S. data shows that the empirical results, including the cyclicality of markups, are consistent with the model's impulse response functions.

Using LASSO-family models to estimate the impact of monetary policy on corporate investments

In this paper, I use LASSO-family models to select the relevant explanatory variables for the transmission of monetary policy shocks on investments and discuss the implications for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The results here point to the effect that Lasso techniques help select the relevant regressors. When the covariates are selected using this procedure, the impact of monetary policy shocks on corporate investments is about 20% lower than that for a baseline approach.

The role of labor market structure and shocks for monetary policy in Kazakhstan

In this paper , we study the role of labor market structure and shocks for monetary policy in Kazakhstan employing a New Keynesian model with labor market rigidities. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques to identify labor market shocks that are important for monetary policy-making. The estimation results suggest that shocks to the bargaining power of workers explain most of the output and inflation fluctuations. Thus, it should be closely monitored by the central bank. In addition, we examine to what extent different labor market characteristics affect the transmission of monetary policy. The results show that a more flexible wage-setting process improves the transmission mechanism. A monetary policy shock translates faster to inflation. Furthermore, we find that the relevance of other features of the labor market for the transmission of monetary policy shocks is limited.

International monetary policy spillovers to emerging economies in Sub-Saharan Africa: A global VAR analysis

In this paper, we trace the transmission of monetary policy shocks from three prominent sources of global financial and trade shocks (US, Europe, and China) to the two largest emerging economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Nigeria and South Africa). To pursue this study's objective, we employ Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model and update the common GVAR database to accommodate selected SSA countries. We report impulse response functions obtained from the model to analyse the responses of inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and output in the emerging SSA economies to monetary policy shocks emanating from the large open economies. We document some new findings on the relationship between international monetary policy and the behaviour of economic factors in the emerging SSA countries. First, we show that tight monetary policy in the US and EU moderates prices in Nigeria while it is inflationary in South Africa. Second, the impact of the same policy shock is positive and prolonged on the Nigerian Naira and South African Rand. Third, the monetary policy decisions in China and the US have greater influence on the monetary policy in Nigeria and South Africa compared to similar policy decisions in the EU.

Imperfect pass-through to deposit rates and monetary policy transmission

I document three salient features of the transmission of monetary policy shocks: imperfect pass-through to deposit rates, impact on credit spreads, and substitution between deposits and other bank liabilities. I develop a monetary model consistent with these facts, where banks have market power on deposits, a duration-mismatched balance sheet, and a dividend-smoothing motive. Deposit demand has a dynamic component, as in the literature on customer markets. A financial friction makes non-deposit funding supply imperfectly elastic. The model indicates that imperfect pass-through to deposit rates is an important source of amplification of monetary policy shocks.

Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis

This paper investigates the role of long-term inflation expectations for the monetary transmission mechanism and the conduct of monetary policy in a structural VAR framework. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that U.S. long-term inflation expectations respond significantly to a monetary policy shock. In line with a re-anchoring channel of monetary policy, long-term inflation expectations play an important role for the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the rate of inflation. Structural scenario analysis suggests that the response of monetary policy to expectations shocks contributes to the stabilization of inflation and unemployment.

The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks

Commonly used instruments for the identification of monetary policy disturbances are likely to combine the true policy shock with information about the state of the economy due to the information disclosed through the policy action. We show that this signaling effect of monetary policy can give rise to the empirical puzzles reported in the literature, and propose a new high-frequency instrument for monetary policy shocks that accounts for informational rigidities. We find that a monetary tightening is unequivocally contractionary, with deterioration of domestic demand, labor and credit market conditions as well as of asset prices and agents’ expectations. (JEL D82, D84, E32, E43, E52, E58, G12)

Long-term business relationships, bargaining and monetary policy

We analyze a monetary economy where firms trading intermediate inputs engage in long-term business-to-business (B2B) relationships. We focus on features such as search for business partners, price negotiation and productivity levels that can make it convenient to separate a relationship. These features are introduced into an otherwise standard New Keynesian (NK) model for policy analysis, where the central bank adopts a Taylor rule. As a result of these features of the B2B relationships, final price and intermediate price inflation are generally not aligned, which is realistic but overlooked by the standard NK model. Consequently, we can investigate the extent to which the allocative role of the intermediate price contributes to the transmission of monetary policy shocks. We find that an allocative role arises from the endogenous separations of the relationships. However, this role is smaller than that in the standard NK model, leading to a comparable but micro-founded alternative explanation of the U.S. business cycle moments.

Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises

Monetary policy uncertainty affects the transmission of monetary policy shocks to longer-term nominal and real yields. For a given monetary policy shock, the reaction of yields is more pronounced when the level of monetary policy uncertainty is low. Primary dealers and other investors adjust their interest rate positions more when monetary policy uncertainty is low than when uncertainty is high. These portfolio adjustments likely explain the larger pass-through of a monetary policy shock to bond yields when uncertainty is low. These findings shed new light on the role that monetary policy uncertainty plays in the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets.

Credit Disintermediation and Monetary Policy

Since the early 1990s, the share of loans in total debt of US firms appears to have declined. This paper explores the implications of this trend toward “disintermediation” for the transmission of monetary policy shocks. Empirically, investment among firms with high loan shares is significantly more responsive to monetary policy shocks. Moreover, this pass-through has declined since the early 1990s, when disintermediation started. A model where firms choose debt structure by trading off the flexibility of loans against the lower cost of bonds can account for the higher sensitivity of more bank-dependent firms to monetary shocks. In this model, disintermediation also leads to a decline in the overall pass-through of monetary shocks to investment.

The Financial Accelerator in the Euro Area: New Evidence Using a Mixture VAR Model

We estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 2003Q1-2019Q4 with a special emphasis on credit conditions. With the help of this model, monetary policy transmission can be described as mixture of two states (e.g., a normal state and a crisis state), using an underlying logit model determining the relative weight of these states over time. We show that shocks to the credit spread and shocks to credit standards directly lead to a reduction of real GDP growth, whereas shocks to the quantity of credit are slightly less important in explaining growth fluctuations. The credit spread and - to some extent - credit standards are also the key determinants of the underlying state of the economy in the logit submodel. Together with a more pronounced transmission of monetary policy shocks in the crisis state, this provides further evidence for a financial accelerator in the euro area. Finally, the detrimental effect of credit conditions is also reflected in the labor market.

The Firm-Level Effects of Monetary Policy: Implications for Firm Performance

We study the dynamic transmission of monetary policy shocks into corporate profitability. We find an initial negative association between the shocks and corporate revenues and expenses. The revenue response is consistent with a consumer substitution effect, while the expense response is consistent with a firm cost of capital effect. The expense effect exceeds the revenue effect, yielding a positive relation between the shocks and profitability. Additional tests show that the effect concentrates in cash rather than accrual revenues and expenses and that it varies predictably with firms’ industry membership and the accounting treatment of firms’ investment outlays.

Трансмиссия монетарных шоков в странах с малой открытой экономикой

In this paper, we compare the transmission of monetary policy shocks using quarterly data for 13 emerging market economies (EMEs) with that in a benchmark advanced open economy, the United Kingdom, in the periods of inflation targeting (from 1990s onward). To estimate the transmission within a given country, we specify a monetary VAR-model and we extend it with a variable reflecting commodities terms of trade. We identify monetary policy shocks using a sign restriction scheme: a restrictive shock is determined as an unexpected rise of policy rate and reduction of inflation (CPI) and money demand (M2). We apply the Bayesian approach to estimating VARs to address the curse of dimensionality. Our results indicate that monetary policy in EMEs is not less efficient comparable to the U.K.: restrictive monetary shocks decrease inflation but also lead to a slowdown of GDP and stock market outflows. Overall, our findings add to the debate on the real effects of monetary policy surprises with a special attention to a large set of EMEs.

Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises

Monetary policy uncertainty affects the transmission of monetary policy shocks to longer-term nominal and real yields. For a given monetary policy shock, the reaction of yields is more pronounced when the level of monetary policy uncertainty is low. Primary dealers and other investors adjust their interest rate positions more when monetary policy uncertainty is low than when uncertainty is high. These portfolio adjustments likely explain the larger pass-through of a monetary policy shock to bond yields when uncertainty is low. These findings shed new light on the role that monetary policy uncertainty plays in the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets.

Bank Coordination and Monetary Transmission: Evidence from India

We propose a new channel for the transmission of monetary policy shocks, the coordination channel. We develop a New Keynesian model in which bank lending is strategically complementary. Banks do not observe the distribution of loans but infer it using Gaussian signals. Under this paradigm, expectations of tighter credit conditions reduce banks’ lending response to monetary shocks. As a result, lack of coordination and information about other banks’ actions dampen monetary transmission. We test these predictions by constructing a dataset that links the evolution of interest rates to firms’ bank credit relationships in India. Consistent with our model, we find that the cross-sectional mean and dispersion of lending rates, which capture the expected value and the precision of the signals of credit extended by other banks, are significant predictors of monetary transmission. Our quantitative results suggest that lending complementarities reduce monetary transmission to inflation and output by about a third.