Disease Transmission Research Articles

Speculation on the transmissibility of Alzheimer's disease

Speculation on the transmissibility of Alzheimer's disease

Prevalence and antibiotic susceptibility patterns of Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus isolated from bioaerosols of local markets located in Agulu, Anambara State

There is a need for improved understanding of aerosol-acquired disease due to the increasing environmental load of antibiotic resistant bacteria. Multidrug-resistant Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus are examples of bacteria for which the role of exposure to aerosolized organisms in disease transmission should be more closely evaluated globally. This study is aimed at evaluating the prevalence and antibiogram of S. aureus and E. coli present in market bioaerosols, located in Nwagu-Agulu, Anambra Nigeria. Impaction sample collection method was used to collect bioaerosol samples within the market using nutrient agar as the collection media, A combination of the cultural and microscopic features as well as selected biochemical tests were employed to identify the isolates. The Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method was used to determine antibiotic resistance to selected commonly used antibiotics. A total of 76 S. aureus and 24 E. coli were isolated. Both organisms have been implicated in community-acquired infections. The most common bacteria isolated were Staphylococcus aureus. Varying levels of resistance were observed by these isolates to selected commonly use antibiotics. There is high prevalence of S. aureus and E. coli within Nwagu market Agulu, Anambra State, Eastern region of Nigeria. The organisms have very high rates of resistance to antibiotics (MDR) as reported by other workers. The government as well as Health professionals must play an important role in the prevention of community acquired infections via regular environmental monitoring of open markets bioaerosol and establishing a common permissible limits or concentration for bioaerosols within the markets.

The impact of health inequity on spatial variation of COVID-19 transmission in England.

Considerable spatial heterogeneity has been observed in COVID-19 transmission across administrative areas of England throughout the pandemic. This study investigates what drives these differences. We constructed a probabilistic case count model for 306 administrative areas of England across 95 weeks, fit using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. We incorporate the impact of acquired immunity, of spatial exportation of cases, and 16 spatially-varying socio-economic, socio-demographic, health, and mobility variables. Model comparison assesses the relative contributions of these respective mechanisms. We find that spatially-varying and time-varying differences in week-to-week transmission were definitively associated with differences in: time spent at home, variant-of-concern proportion, and adult social care funding. However, model comparison demonstrates that the impact of these terms is negligible compared to the role of spatial exportation between administrative areas. While these results confirm the impact of some, but not all, static measures of spatially-varying inequity in England, our work corroborates the finding that observed differences in disease transmission during the pandemic were predominantly driven by underlying epidemiological factors rather than aggregated metrics of demography and health inequity between areas. Further work is required to assess how health inequity more broadly contributes to these epidemiological factors.

Utilizing disease transmission and response capacities to optimize covid-19 control in Malaysia

ObjectivesPublic Health Social Measures (PHSM) such as movement restriction movement needed to be adjusted accordingly during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure low disease transmission alongside adequate health system capacities based on the COVID-19 situational matrix proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper aims to develop a mechanism to determine the COVID-19 situational matrix to adjust movement restriction intensity for the control of COVID-19 in Malaysia.MethodsSeveral epidemiological indicators were selected based on the WHO PHSM interim guidance report and validated individually and in several combinations to estimate the community transmission level (CT) and health system response capacity (RC) variables. Correlation analysis between CT and RC with COVID-19 cases was performed to determine the most appropriate CT and RC variables. Subsequently, the CT and RC variables were combined to form a composite COVID-19 situational matrix (SL). The SL matrix was validated using correlation analysis with COVID-19 case trends. Subsequently, an automated web-based system that generated daily CT, RC, and SL was developed.ResultsCT and RC variables were estimated using case incidence and hospitalization rate; Hospital bed capacity and COVID-19 ICU occupancy respectively. The estimated CT and RC were strongly correlated [ρ = 0.806 (95% CI 0.752, 0.848); and ρ = 0.814 (95% CI 0.778, 0.839), p < 0.001] with the COVID-19 cases. The estimated SL was strongly correlated with COVID-19 cases (ρ = 0.845, p < 0.001) and responded well to the various COVID-19 case trends during the pandemic. SL changes occurred earlier during the increase of cases but slower during the decrease, indicating a conservative response. The automated web-based system developed produced daily real-time CT, RC, and SL for the COVID-19 pandemic.ConclusionsThe indicators selected and combinations formed were able to generate validated daily CT and RC levels for Malaysia. Subsequently, the CT and RC levels were able to provide accurate and sensitive information for the estimation of SL which provided valuable evidence on the progression of the pandemic and movement restriction adjustment for the control of Malaysia.

Analyzing a Dynamical System with Harmonic Mean Incidence Rate Using Volterra–Lyapunov Matrices and Fractal-Fractional Operators

This paper investigates the dynamics of the SIR infectious disease model, with a specific emphasis on utilizing a harmonic mean-type incidence rate. It thoroughly analyzes the model’s equilibrium points, computes the basic reproductive rate, and evaluates the stability of the model at disease-free and endemic equilibrium states, both locally and globally. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is carried out. A sophisticated stability theory, primarily focusing on the characteristics of the Volterra–Lyapunov (V-L) matrices, is developed to examine the overall trajectory of the model globally. In addition to that, we describe the transmission of infectious disease through a mathematical model using fractal-fractional differential operators. We prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions in the SIR model framework with a harmonic mean-type incidence rate by using the Banach contraction approach. Functional analysis is used together with the Ulam–Hyers (UH) stability approach to perform stability analysis. We simulate the numerical results by using a computational scheme with the help of MATLAB. This study advances our knowledge of the dynamics of epidemic dissemination and facilitates the development of disease prevention and mitigation tactics.

Cholera: A Latent Threat to Human Health

: Cholera outbreaks caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae present a significant global health challenge, with a notable increase in cases recently reported. The disease is characterized by severe watery diarrhea, leading to dehydration and potential fatalities if not promptly addressed. Transmission occurs through contaminated food and water sources, underscoring the importance of water sanitation and hygiene measures to prevent outbreaks. Limited healthcare access and inadequate reporting systems make estimating cholera cases and deaths challenging. Antibiotic resistance is also a concerning issue, necessitating the development of new treatment options. Prompt laboratory diagnosis is essential, with rapid diagnostic tests and PCR showing promise for pathogen detection. Treatment involves fluid replacement and appropriate antibiotic use to reduce disease severity and transmission. Oral cholera vaccines offer preventive measures for high-risk individuals during outbreaks. To combat the escalating cholera epidemic and save lives, a comprehensive approach, including improved water sanitation, early detection, and timely treatment, is crucial.

Homophily and social mixing in a small community: Implications for infectious disease transmission.

Community mixing patterns by sociodemographic traits can inform the risk of epidemic spread among groups, and the balance of in- and out-group mixing affects epidemic potential. Understanding mixing patterns can provide insight about potential transmission pathways throughout a community. We used a snowball sampling design to enroll people recently diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 in an ethnically and racially diverse county and asked them to describe their close contacts and recruit some contacts to enroll in the study. We constructed egocentric networks of the participants and their contacts and assessed age-mixing, ethnic/racial homophily, and gender homophily. The total size of the egocentric networks was 2,544 people (n = 384 index cases + n = 2,160 recruited peers or other contacts). We observed high rates of in-group mixing among ethnic/racial groups compared to the ethnic/racial proportions of the background population. Black or African-American respondents interacted with a wider range of ages than other ethnic/racial groups, largely due to familial relationships. The egocentric networks of non-binary contacts had little age diversity. Black or African-American respondents in particular reported mixing with older or younger family members, which could increase the risk of transmission to vulnerable age groups. Understanding community mixing patterns can inform infectious disease risk, support analyses to predict epidemic size, or be used to design campaigns such as vaccination strategies so that community members who have vulnerable contacts are prioritized.

Molecular signatures in prion disease: altered death receptor pathways in a mouse model.

Prion diseases are transmissible and fatal neurodegenerative diseases characterized by accumulation of misfolded prion protein isoform (PrPSc), astrocytosis, microgliosis, spongiosis, and neurodegeneration. Elevated levels of cell membrane associated PrPSc protein and inflammatory cytokines hint towards the activation of death receptor (DR) pathway/s in prion diseases. Activation of DRs regulate, either cell survival or apoptosis, autophagy and necroptosis based on the adaptors they interact. Very little is known about the DR pathways activation in prion disease. DR3 and DR5 that are expressed in normal mouse brain were never studied in prion disease, so also their ligands and any DR adaptors. This research gap is notable and investigated in the present study. C57BL/6J mice were infected with Rocky Mountain Laboratory scrapie mouse prion strain. The progression of prion disease was examined by observing morphological and behavioural abnormalities. The levels of PrP isoforms and GFAP were measured as the marker of PrPSc accumulation and astrocytosis respectively using antibody-based techniques that detect proteins on blot and brain section. The levels of DRs, their glycosylation and ectodomain shedding, and associated factors warrant their examination at protein level, hence western blot analysis was employed in this study. Prion-infected mice developed motor deficits and neuropathology like PrPSc accumulation and astrocytosis similar to other prion diseases. Results from this research show higher expression of all DR ligands, TNFR1, Fas and p75NTR but decreased levels DR3 and DR5. The levels of DR adaptor proteins like TRADD and TRAF2 (primarily regulate pro-survival pathways) are reduced. FADD, which primarily regulate cell death, its level remains unchanged. RIPK1, which regulate pro-survival, apoptosis and necroptosis, its expression and proteolysis (inhibits necroptosis but activates apoptosis) are increased. The findings from the present study provide evidence towards the involvement of DR3, DR5, DR6, TL1A, TRAIL, TRADD, TRAF2, FADD and RIPK1 for the first time in prion diseases. The knowledge obtained from this research discuss the possible impacts of these 16 differentially expressed DR factors on our understanding towards the multifaceted neuropathology of prion diseases and towards future explorations into potential targeted therapeutic interventions for prion disease specific neuropathology.

Synergistic effect of ZnO Thin Films with Gold as Antifungal Coatings

Microbial contamination on surfaces is a problem worldwide, affecting public health and industry. The increasing prevalence and severity of microbial infection outbreaks across various environments have highlighted the urgent need to develop antimicrobial coatings/surfaces to mitigate the risk of disease transmission through high‐touched surfaces. This work focuses on assessing the antifungal activity of thin films based on zinc oxide (ZnO), produced by reactive magnetron sputtering with varying thicknesses, and evaluating the impact of varying gold concentrations within the ZnO matrix on both microstructure and antifungal activity. The developed thin films exhibit noteworthy antifungal activity against the fungus Candida albicans, achieving 80% reduction in cell viability, regardless of thickness and gold concentration (up to 15.4 at%). Annealing treatment at 600 °C induces the formation of large and irregular gold nanostructures (sizes from 39 to 260 nm), enhancing the antifungal activity compared to the as‐deposited samples. This highlights the surface‐dependent antifungal efficacy of ZnO‐based thin films and a synergistic effect when combined with gold. Additionally, the thin films not only exhibit antifungal activity but also demonstrate potential for localized surface plasmon resonance applications. Overall, ZnO‐based thin films hold promise as antifungal coatings for diverse surfaces, offering a preventive measure against microbial contamination.

Syphilis

The prevalence of syphilis is rising. Recognition and treatment is crucial in avoiding potentially life-threatening complications and disease transmission. It should, therefore, be considered when investigating common presenting complaints such as skin lesions, flu-like symptoms and memory issues. This article aims to aid GPs in appreciating the signs and symptoms of syphilis in its different stages and in initiating appropriate referrals.

Impact of Climate Change on Global Health: A Comprehensive Review

Climate change poses significant challenges to global health, with far-reaching implications for human health and well-being. This comprehensive review synthesizes evidence from diverse disciplines to elucidate the complex relationship between climate change and health. Key areas of focus include the direct impacts of extreme weather events, alterations in infectious disease transmission, air quality changes, food security issues, and mental health effects. Vulnerable populations, including low-income communities and indigenous peoples, are disproportionately affected, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions and equitable adaptation strategies. Methodologically, a search of peer-reviewed literature was conducted, covering studies published up to 2024. Both quantitative and qualitative studies were included, and thematic analysis was employed to identify patterns and trends. The review highlights gaps in current policy frameworks and international cooperation efforts, calling for enhanced collaboration and knowledge sharing to address the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change on health. Furthermore, proactive adaptation measures, robust public health infrastructure, and inclusive strategies are essential to mitigate adverse health impacts and foster resilience. By prioritizing collective action and interdisciplinary collaboration, we can work towards a healthier and more resilient future in the face of climate change.

PREVALENCE AND SUSCEPTIBILITY OF BACTERIA FROM USED TOOTHBRUSHES OF STUDENTS RESIDING IN HALL I AND II UNIVERSITY OF BENIN

Used toothbrushes are reservoirs for varieties of bacteria that are implicated in human disease transmission. Personal oral hygiene and removal of plaque are important roles played by the use of toothbrushes in an act endorsed for oral hygiene resolution and ubiquitously practiced in developing and developed Nations. The study aims to evaluate the prevalence and susceptibility of bacteria present in used toothbrushes of students residing in Halls I and II, University of Benin. New toothbrushes ninety (90) were bought and forty-five (45) each were distributed to students in each hall of residence, these toothbrushes were used for one month and collected for bacteria analysis. Standard bacteriological procedures were observed for the analysis. Data were analyzed using the SPSS 22.0 computer software package. Independent t-test was used to find the differences between the two variables. The value of p&lt; 0.05 was taken to be statistically significant. Heavy bacteria contamination was associated with used toothbrushes while no bacteria contamination in the unused ones, which serves as a control. Klebsiella species 16 (35.53 %), and 19 (42.2 %) were more prevalent than coagulase-negative staphylococci species 2 (4.4 %) and 2(4.4 %) respectively from both halls. All the toothbrushes analyzed in this study had bacteria contaminates that are known to harm human health, contributing significantly to the spread of diseases, and increasing infection risks. Establishing a high aseptic protocol, storage, and management be encouraged in tertiary institution halls of residence as the incidence of these oral bacteria and individual health risks will be minimized.

Advancements in alveolar bone reconstruction: A systematic review of bone block utilization in dental practice.

Alveolar reconstructive surgery employs a variety of surgical techniques and biomaterials, with a particular focus on bone blocks as a crucial methodology for restoring and augmenting deficient bone structures. Bone blocks are often employed to support periodontal health or as a foundation for future prosthetic rehabilitation with dental implants. This systematic review investigated recent advances in bone blocks for alveolar bone reconstruction, comparing autologous, allogeneic and xenogeneic types. A search of PubMed identified 56 records, of which 21 were included in the qualitative analysis. The studies involved 685 patients in total. Bone blocks are pivotal for three-dimensional bone regeneration, providing a stable scaffold for achieving the desired bone volume during healing. Autologous bone, harvested from the patient, boasts high biocompatibility, excellent osteogenic properties and minimal immunologic risks. However, its drawbacks include the need for an additional surgical site and extended procedural times. Allogeneic bone blocks involve transferring bone between individuals, offering increased graft availability and customization options without requiring a second surgical site. However, they exhibit moderate resorption rates and carry a heightened risk of immunologic reactions and disease transmission. Innovative techniques, such as tunneling, laser osteotomy, graft customization, and platelet-rich fibrin (PRF) application on wound during surgical treatment show promise in enhancing alveolar bone reconstruction efficacy. In conclusion, despite the traditional preference for autologous bone, the review suggests that alternative materials, particularly individualized allogeneic bone blocks, coupled with modern techniques, could emerge as a standard procedure for regenerating alveolar bone defects due to their satisfactory results and potential advantages.

Shared social identity and social norms shape risk-taking at mass gatherings.

Shared social identity and social norms are often un(der)recognized within mass gatherings health literature, yet they can increase infectious disease transmission by motivating people to engage in risk-taking behaviours. Across three experiments (Ntotal = 1551), we investigated how shared social identities, perceived norms of resource-sharing, and perceived riskiness of sharing interact to shape decisions that can lead to disease transmission. In Experiment 1 (N = 528), we examined how shared social identity and perceived descriptive norms affect the likelihood of crowd members sharing resources that may contribute to disease spread. We then replicated this in Experiment 2 (N = 511) using perceived injunctive norms. In Experiment 3 (N = 512), we explored how high shared social identity, perceived norms, and perceived health risks of resource-sharing impact the likelihood of sharing that may, in turn, increase infectious disease transmission at mass gatherings. We found that high shared social identity interacts with perceived descriptive and injunctive norms, and low health risk perceptions, to increase the likelihood of accepting resources and giving resources at mass gatherings. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to build effective strategies to mitigate infectious disease transmission at mass gatherings.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in the Nasopharynx at Time of First Infection Among Unvaccinated Individuals

SARS-CoV-2 viral load (VL) in the nasopharynx is difficult to quantify and standardize across settings, but it may inform transmission potential and disease severity. To characterize VL at COVID-19 diagnosis among previously uninfected and unvaccinated individuals by evaluating the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with VL, as well as the ability of VL to predict severe disease. This secondary cross-protocol analysis used individual-level data from placebo recipients from 4 harmonized, phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials sponsored by Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax. Participants were SARS-CoV-2 negative at baseline and acquired COVID-19 during the blinded phase of the trials. The setting included the US, Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Chile, and Mexico; start dates were July 27, 2020, to December 27, 2020; data cutoff dates were March 26, 2021, to July 30, 2021. Statistical analysis was performed from November 2022 to June 2023. Linear regression was used to assess the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with polymerase chain reaction-measured log10 VL in nasal and/or nasopharyngeal swabs taken at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Among 1667 participants studied (886 [53.1%] male; 995 [59.7%] enrolled in the US; mean [SD] age, 46.7 [14.7] years; 204 [12.2%] aged 65 years or older; 196 [11.8%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 150 [9%] Black or African American, 1112 [66.7%] White; 762 [45.7%] Hispanic or Latino), median (IQR) log10 VL at diagnosis was 6.18 (4.66-7.12) log10 copies/mL. Participant characteristics and viral variant explained only 5.9% of the variability in VL. The independent factor with the highest observed differences was trial: Janssen participants had 0.54 log10 copies/mL lower mean VL vs Moderna participants (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.87 log10 copies/mL lower). In the Janssen study, which captured the largest number of COVID-19 events and variants and used the most intensive post-COVID surveillance, neither VL at diagnosis nor averaged over days 1 to 28 post diagnosis was associated with COVID-19 severity. In this study of placebo recipients from 4 randomized phase 3 trials, high variability was observed in SARS-CoV-2 VL at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, and only a fraction was explained by individual participant characteristics or viral variant. These results suggest challenges for future studies of interventions seeking to influence VL and elevates the importance of standardized methods for specimen collection and viral load quantitation.

The influence of oviposition status on measures of transmission potential in malaria-infected mosquitoes depends on sugar availability

BackgroundLike other oviparous organisms, the gonotrophic cycle of mosquitoes is not complete until they have selected a suitable habitat to oviposit. In addition to the evolutionary constraints associated with selective oviposition behavior, the physiological demands relative to an organism’s oviposition status also influence their nutrient requirement from the environment. Yet, studies that measure transmission potential (vectorial capacity or competence) of mosquito-borne parasites rarely consider whether the rates of parasite replication and development could be influenced by these constraints resulting from whether mosquitoes have completed their gonotrophic cycle.MethodsAnopheles stephensi mosquitoes were infected with Plasmodium berghei, the rodent analog of human malaria, and maintained on 1% or 10% dextrose and either provided oviposition sites (‘oviposited’ herein) to complete their gonotrophic cycle or forced to retain eggs (‘non-oviposited’). Transmission potential in the four groups was measured up to 27 days post-infection as the rates of (i) sporozoite appearance in the salivary glands (‘extrinsic incubation period' or EIP), (ii) vector survival and (iii) sporozoite densities.ResultsIn the two groups of oviposited mosquitoes, rates of sporozoite appearance and densities in the salivary glands were clearly dependent on sugar availability, with shorter EIP and higher sporozoite densities in mosquitoes fed 10% dextrose. In contrast, rates of appearance and densities in the salivary glands were independent of sugar concentrations in non-oviposited mosquitoes, although both measures were slightly lower than in oviposited mosquitoes fed 10% dextrose. Vector survival was higher in non-oviposited mosquitoes.ConclusionsCosts to parasite fitness and vector survival were buffered against changes in nutritional availability from the environment in non-oviposited but not oviposited mosquitoes. Taken together, these results suggest vectorial capacity for malaria parasites may be dependent on nutrient availability and oviposition/gonotrophic status and, as such, argue for more careful consideration of this interaction when estimating transmission potential. More broadly, the complex patterns resulting from physiological (nutrition) and evolutionary (egg-retention) trade-offs described here, combined with the ubiquity of selective oviposition behavior, implies the fitness of vector-borne pathogens could be shaped by selection for these traits, with implications for disease transmission and management. For instance, while reducing availability of oviposition sites and environmental sources of nutrition are key components of integrated vector management strategies, their abundance and distribution are under strong selection pressure from the patterns associated with climate change.Graphical

Modelling the dynamics of Ebola disease transmission with optimal control analysis

Modelling the dynamics of Ebola disease transmission with optimal control analysis

Assessing eco-geographic influences on COVID-19 transmission: a global analysis.

COVID-19 has been massively transmitted for almost 3years, and its multiple variants have caused serious health problems and an economic crisis. Our goal was to identify the influencing factors that reduce the threshold of disease transmission and to analyze the epidemiological patterns of COVID-19. This study served as an early assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 using the MaxEnt species distribution algorithm using the maximum entropy model. The transmission of COVID-19 was evaluated based on human factors and environmental variables, including climate, terrain and vegetation, along with COVID-19 daily confirmed case location data. The results of the SDM model indicate that population density was the major factor influencing the spread of COVID-19. Altitude, land cover and climatic factor showed low impact. We identified a set of practical, high-resolution, multi-factor-based maximum entropy ecological niche risk prediction systems to assess the transmission risk of the COVID-19 epidemic globally. This study provided a comprehensive analysis of various factors influencing the transmission of COVID-19, incorporating both human and environmental variables. These findings emphasize the role of different types of influencing variables in disease transmission, which could have implications for global health regulations and preparedness strategies for future outbreaks.

Masks and respirators for prevention of respiratory infections: a state of the science review.

SUMMARYThis narrative review and meta-analysis summarizes a broad evidence base on the benefits-and also the practicalities, disbenefits, harms and personal, sociocultural and environmental impacts-of masks and masking. Our synthesis of evidence from over 100 published reviews and selected primary studies, including re-analyzing contested meta-analyses of key clinical trials, produced seven key findings. First, there is strong and consistent evidence for airborne transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and other respiratory pathogens. Second, masks are, if correctly and consistently worn, effective in reducing transmission of respiratory diseases and show a dose-response effect. Third, respirators are significantly more effective than medical or cloth masks. Fourth, mask mandates are, overall, effective in reducing community transmission of respiratory pathogens. Fifth, masks are important sociocultural symbols; non-adherence to masking is sometimes linked to political and ideological beliefs and to widely circulated mis- or disinformation. Sixth, while there is much evidence that masks are not generally harmful to the general population, masking may be relatively contraindicated in individuals with certain medical conditions, who may require exemption. Furthermore, certain groups (notably D/deaf people) are disadvantaged when others are masked. Finally, there are risks to the environment from single-use masks and respirators. We propose an agenda for future research, including improved characterization of the situations in which masking should be recommended or mandated; attention to comfort and acceptability; generalized and disability-focused communication support in settings where masks are worn; and development and testing of novel materials and designs for improved filtration, breathability, and environmental impact.

Research on Early Warning of Transmission of Tuberculosis Infectious Diseases from the Perspective of Social Factors

In this study, the infiltration model was established to study the early warning of pulmonary tuberculosis data in Xiamen public hospitals. Based on the gender characteristics of residents in Xiamen, a percolation model was established to analyze the transmission rates of diseases under different contact types. In addition, the calculation method of the percolation threshold is discussed, and the model is verified by a simulation experiment. The results show that the model can predict the spread of epidemic situations well. The early warning value and relevant preventive measures were obtained by simulating the spread of tuberculosis under different exposure numbers. Bond percolation analysis was used to predict the proportion of the eventually infected population, this threshold of percolation was the basic regeneration number of tuberculosis, and the tuberculosis infection situation was effectively predicted.