Transmission Network Analysis Research Articles

Complex network analysis of transmission networks preparing for the energy transition: application to the current French power grid

The worldwide process of replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon energy sources is underway. Existing energy networks are expected to be deeply modified in nature and structure during this transition. This work uses graph-theoretical statistical physics tools to analyze topology and structural changes of power grids, with the French grid as a case study. We discuss the small-world model to define an optimality criterion, the construction of a graph model for the French high-voltage transmission grid, and the development of a growth model to study the dynamics of such networks. The main result of our project suggests that the high efficiency level in the current French network is due to a high-voltage mesh interconnecting thermal power plants. Since implementing low-power-density renewable energy sources would imply non-trivial adjustments to maintain features, such as efficiency and robustness, these considerations must be added to economic and energetic assessments of transition scenarios.Graphic

Transmission Network and Phylogenetic Analysis Highlight the Role of Suburban Population in HIV-1 Transmission Among Older Adults in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China.

Describing the transmission characteristics among older adults is essential for designing tailored interventions. An epidemiological investigation combined with phylogenetic analysis was conducted to reveal potential transmission linkages among older adults in Nanjing. Between 2018 and 2022, 188 pol sequences were successfully amplified. Multiple genotypes were identified, including CRF07_BC (55.3%), CRF01_AE (30.3%), CRF08_BC (8.0%), B (3.2%), CRF55_01B (1.1%), CRF67_01B (0.5%), CRF68_01B (0.5%), and unique recombinant forms (URF) (1.1%). Transmission network analysis identified 120 genetically linked patients forming 23 clusters, ranging from 2 to 26 individuals. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that compared with farmers and heterosexuals, patients with other occupations (OR = 0.404, 95% CI: 0.173-0.945) and MSM (OR = 0.193, 95% CI: 0.050-0.738) were less likely to have high linkage. Subjects who lived in suburban areas were more likely to have high linkage (OR = 10.932, 95% CI: 3.335-35.830). The Sankey diagram suggested that patients living in suburban areas primarily transmitted the disease within the local district (χ2 = 24.192, p < 0.001). Among the 188 pol sequences, the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance was 8%. In suburban areas with a rising HIV-1 epidemic, improving early detection and timely treatment is critical. More tailored interventions for this subgroup are urgently needed.

Epidemiological dynamics and molecular characterization of HIV drug resistance in eastern China from 2020 to 2023.

HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) has become a threat to the elimination of the AIDS epidemic due to the global scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected individuals. This study aims to investigate the epidemiological dynamics and molecular characterization of HIV pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) and acquired drug resistance (ADR) in Hangzhou, a developed region in China. An epidemiological survey combined with a molecular transmission network and Bayesian analysis was conducted. A total of 3,596 individuals with newly confirmed HIV infections (from 2020 to 2023) and 164 individuals with ART failure (from 2021 to 2023) were included. The molecular transmission network was used to identify key drug-resistant transmission clusters, while the Bayesian analysis was utilized to trace the origins and spread of these clusters. The overall prevalence of PDR was found to be 8.4% (303/3596). Among these cases, PDR to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) accounted for 4.7% (170/3596), significantly higher than the resistance observed for protease inhibitors (PIs; 2.8%, p < 0.001) and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs; 1.4%, p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a significantly higher PDR value among individuals infected with the CRF07_BC subtype compared to those with the CRF08_BC subtype (aOR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.359-0.859, p = 0.008). The molecular transmission network analysis identified the transmission of the drug resistance mutation (DRM) Q58E within the clusters of the CRF07_BC subtype. The Bayesian analysis suggested that these clusters were introduced into Hangzhou from Shenzhen between 2005 and 2012. Furthermore, the study highlighted 50.6% (83/164) prevalence of ADR among individuals experiencing ART failure. The combined molecular network analysis of virological failure and newly confirmed HIV infections indicated the transmission of the K103N mutation between these groups. In conclusion, targeted interventions may be necessary for specific subtypes and transmission clusters to control the spread of drug-resistant HIV. Continuous monitoring of resistance patterns is critical to inform treatment strategies and optimize ART regimens.

Combining molecular transmission network analysis and spatial epidemiology to reveal HIV-1 transmission pattern among the older people in Nanjing, China

BackgroundIn China, the problem of HIV infection among the older people has become increasingly prominent. This study aimed to analyze the pattern and influencing factors of HIV transmission based on a genomic and spatial epidemiological analysis among this population.MethodsA total of 432 older people who were aged ≥ 50 years, newly diagnosed with HIV-1 between January 2018 and December 2021 and without a history of ART were enrolled. HIV-1 pol gene sequence was obtained by viral RNA extraction and nested PCR. The molecular transmission network was constructed using HIV-TRACE and the spatial distribution analyses were performed in ArcGIS. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the factors associated with clustering.ResultsA total of 382 sequences were successfully sequenced, of which CRF07_BC (52.3%), CRF01_AE (32.5%), and CRF08_BC (6.8%) were the main HIV-1 strains. A total of 176 sequences entered the molecular network, with a clustering rate of 46.1%. Impressively, the clustering rate among older people infected through commercial heterosexual contact was as high as 61.7% and three female sex workers (FSWs) were observed in the network. The individuals who were aged ≥ 60 years and transmitted the virus by commercial heterosexual contact had a higher clustering rate, while those who were retirees or engaged other occupations and with higher education degree were less likely to cluster. There was a positive spatial correlation of clustering rate (Global Moran I = 0.206, P < 0.001) at the town level and the highly aggregated regions were mainly distributed in rural area. We determined three large clusters which mainly spread in the intra-region of certain towns in rural areas. Notably, 54.5% of cases in large clusters were transmitted through commercial heterosexual contact.ConclusionsOur joint analysis of molecular and spatial epidemiology effectively revealed the spatial aggregation of HIV transmission and highlighted that towns of high aggregation were mainly located in rural area. Also, we found vital role of commercial heterosexual contact in HIV transmission among older people. Therefore, health resources should be directed towards highly aggregated rural areas and prevention strategy should take critical persons as entry points.

Molecular transmission network analysis reveals the challenge of HIV-1 in ageing patients in China: elderly people play a crucial role in the transmission of subtypes and high pretreatment drug resistance in developed Eastern China, 2019–2023

BackgroundThe number and proportion of HIV/AIDS patients among older people are continuously and rapidly increasing in China. We conducted a detailed molecular epidemiological analysis of HIV-1 epidemic strains in a developed city in eastern China and found that elderly people play a crucial role in the transmission of subtypes and high pretreatment drug resistance (PDR).MethodsA total of 1048 samples were obtained from 1129 (92.8%) newly confirmed HIV-1-positive and treatment-naive patients between 2019 and 2023. The 1316 bp target fragment of the pol gene was amplified by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT‒PCR) and nested PCR, and Maximum-likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees and molecular transmission network were constructed to analyse the subtypes and transmission clusters. Molecular transmission network was visualized using Cytoscape with the distance threshold of 0.0075. PDR-associated mutations were determined according to the Stanford University HIV Drug Resistance Database.ResultsA total of 933 pol sequences (89.0%, 933/1048) were successfully obtained, and twelve HIV-1 subtypes were detected. CRF07_BC was the predominant subtype, accounting for 48.1% (449/933) of sequences, followed by CRF01_AE (29.4%, 274/933). A total of 398 individuals (42.7%, 398/933) formed 89 clusters in the network. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that age, nationality, subtype, and PDR were the most significant factors associated with clustering in the transmission network. The prevalence of PDR was 14.6% (136/933).PDR associated with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (10.0%, 93/933) was much more common than that associated with nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (1.8%, 17/933) and protease inhibitors (3.2%, 30/933) (χ2 = 77.961, p < 0.001). The most frequent NNRTI mutations were K103N/S/KN/NS (52.2%, 71/136), which led to the highest proportion of high-level resistance to nevirapine and efavirenz (52.2%).ConclusionsOur study revealed the important influence of elderly people on CRF07_BC transmission and the high prevalence of PDR. The clustering of drug-resistant cases was significant, which suggested the potential for localized widespread transmission of drug-resistant strains. HIV screening and the determination of PDR are recommended for older patients to improve early detection and reduce treatment failure and second-generation transmission.

Molecular transmission network analysis of newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Nanjing from 2019 to 2021

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the molecular transmission networks and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) patterns among individuals newly diagnosed with HIV-1 in Nanjing.MethodsPlasma samples were collected from newly diagnosed HIV patients in Nanjing between 2019 and 2021. The HIV pol gene was amplified, and the resulting sequences were utilized for determining TDR, identifying viral subtypes, and constructing molecular transmission network. Logistic regression analyses were employed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics associated with molecular transmission clusters.ResultsA total of 1161 HIV pol sequences were successfully extracted from newly diagnosed individuals, each accompanied by reliable epidemiologic information. The analysis revealed the presence of multiple HIV-1 subtypes, with CRF 07_BC (40.57%) and CRF01_AE (38.42%) being the most prevalent. Additionally, six other subtypes and unique recombinant forms (URFs) were identified. The prevalence of TDR among the newly diagnosed cases was 7.84% during the study period. Employing a genetic distance threshold of 1.50%, the construction of the molecular transmission network resulted in the identification of 137 clusters, encompassing 613 nodes, which accounted for approximately 52.80% of the cases. Multivariate analysis indicated that individuals within these clusters were more likely to be aged ≥ 60, unemployed, baseline CD4 cell count ≥ 200 cells/mm3, and infected with the CRF119_0107 (P < 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis of larger clusters revealed that individuals aged ≥ 60, peasants, those without TDR, and individuals infected with the CRF119_0107 were more likely to be part of these clusters.ConclusionsThis study revealed the high risk of local HIV transmission and high TDR prevalence in Nanjing, especially the rapid spread of CRF119_0107. It is crucial to implement targeted interventions for the molecular transmission clusters identified in this study to effectively control the HIV epidemic.

Epidemic characteristics of local HIV-2 transmission across Hunan province, China

ObjectiveTo elucidate the epidemiological features of HIV-2 in Hunan Province, China, utilizing sequence analysis. MethodsThirteen individuals diagnosed with HIV-2 infection in Hunan Province, China, from 2017 to 2023 were included in this study. Amplification of HIV-2 env and pol regions was conducted, followed by Sanger sequencing. Phylogenetic and molecular transmission network analyses were performed to delineate molecular features and transmission dynamics. ResultsAll 14 individuals contracted HIV-2 through heterosexual intercourse, comprising 7 males and 7 females, with a median age of 58 years. Among them, three couples (HN001 and HN013, HN010 and HN011, HN008 and HN009) were identified, along with commercial sexual activity engagement reported for subject HN004. Notably, subjects HN001, HN003, HN008, and HN010 engaged in commercial sexual activities at the same location as subject HN004. Phylogenetic analysis of the pol gene revealed close proximity of sequences from all subjects to reference sequences from Gambia (Sub-type A). Employing a genetic distance threshold of 1.5 %, eight out of the 14 subjects formed a molecular transmission network, with HN002 and HN004 identified as central nodes. ConclusionFrom 2017 to 2023, all HIV-2-infected individuals in Hunan Province, China, acquired the virus through identifiable routes, indicating transmission of similar HIV-2 strains among them.

Convex Relaxations of Maximal Load Delivery for Multi-Contingency Analysis of Joint Electric Power and Natural Gas Transmission Networks

Recent increases in gas-fired power generation have engendered increased interdependencies between natural gas and power transmission systems. These interdependencies have amplified existing vulnerabilities in gas and power grids, where disruptions can require the curtailment of load in one or both systems. Although typically operated independently, coordination of these systems during severe disruptions can allow for targeted delivery to lifeline services, including gas delivery for residential heating and power delivery for critical facilities. To address the challenge of estimating maximum joint network capacities under such disruptions, we consider the task of determining feasible steady-state operating points for severely damaged systems while ensuring the maximal delivery of gas and power loads simultaneously, represented mathematically as the nonconvex joint Maximal Load Delivery (MLD) problem. To increase its tractability, we present a mixed-integer convex relaxation of the MLD problem. Then, to demonstrate the relaxation’s effectiveness in determining bounds on network capacities, exact and relaxed MLD formulations are compared across various multi-contingency scenarios on nine joint networks ranging in size from 25 to 1191 nodes. The relaxation-based methodology is observed to accurately and efficiently estimate the impacts of severe joint network disruptions, often converging to the relaxed MLD problem’s globally optimal solution within ten seconds.

Hepatitis C virus subtype diversity and transmission clusters characteristics among drug users in Zhuhai, South China

BackgroundHepatitis C virus (HCV) infection poses a major public health challenge globally, especially among injecting drug users. China has the world’s largest burden of HCV infections. However, little is known about the characteristics of transmission networks among drug user populations. This study aims to investigate the molecular epidemiology and transmission characteristics of HCV infections among drug users in Zhuhai, a bustling port city connecting Mainland China and its Special Administrative Regions.MethodsParticipants enrolled in this study were drug users incarcerated at Zhuhai’s drug rehabilitation center in 2015. Their sociodemographic and behavioral information, including gender, promiscuity, drug use method, and so forth, was collected using a standardized questionnaire. Plasmas separated from venous blood were analyzed for HCV infection through ELISA and RT-PCR methods to detect anti-HCV antibodies and HCV RNA. The 5’UTR fragment of the HCV genome was amplified and further sequenced for subtype identifications and phylogenetic analysis. The phylogenetic tree was inferred using the Maximum Likelihood method based on the Tamura-Nei model, and the transmission cluster network was constructed using Cytoscape3.8.0 software with a threshold of 0.015. Binary logistic regression models were employed to assess the factors associated with HCV infection.ResultsThe overall prevalence of HCV infection among drug users was 44.37%, with approximately 19.69% appearing to clear the HCV virus successfully. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that those aged over 40, engaging in injecting drug use, and being native residents were at heightened risk for HCV infection among drug user cohorts. The predominant HCV subtypes circulating among those drug users were 6a (60.26%), followed by 3b (16.7%), 3a (12.8%), 1b (6.41%) and 1a (3.85%), respectively. Molecular transmission network analysis unveiled the presence of six transmission clusters, with the largest propagation cluster consisting of 41 individuals infected with HCV subtype 6a. Furthermore, distinct transmission clusters involved eight individuals infected with subtype 3b and seven with subtype 3a were also observed.ConclusionThe genetic transmission networks revealed a complex transmission pattern among drug users in Zhuhai, emphasizing the imperative for a targeted and effective intervention strategy to mitigate HCV dissemination. These insights are pivotal for shaping future national policies on HCV screening, treatment, and prevention in port cities.

Exploring HIV-1 Transmission Features Among Older Individuals in Developed Eastern China.

The number of newly reported HIV-1 infections among older individuals (≥50 years of age) has increased rapidly in Hangzhou, a central city in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. To provide a scientific basis for prevention and intervention strategies targeted at older individuals in Hangzhou, an epidemiological survey combined with molecular transmission network analysis was conducted. A total of 2,899 individuals with newly confirmed HIV-1 infections, including 635 older individuals and 2,264 younger individuals (<50 years of age), were enrolled in this study. Among older individuals, heterosexual contact was the predominant mode of HIV-1 transmission. In addition, it was observed that older individuals with lower levels of education exhibited a higher susceptibility to HIV-1 infection. The analysis of transmission network, which was inferred using HIV-TRACE algorithm, revealed that the newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections among older individuals in Hangzhou exhibited a pattern of scattered transmission, with key clusters primarily located in non-main urban areas. The predominant mode of transmission in these areas was nonmarital and noncommercial or nonmarital and commercial heterosexual transmission. Notably, the study highlighted a significant proportion of older individuals (73.3%, 11/15) within B subtype. Multivariate logistic regression analysis further revealed that the subtype B was a significant factor associated with older individuals having ≥3 node degrees in the network, occurring 5.55 times more frequent than subtype CRF07_BC (95% confidence intervals = 1.17-26.22, p = .031). Furthermore, the lower CD4 levels observed among older individuals underscored the challenge of late diagnosis in Hangzhou. Taken together, it is imperative to test and intervene for high-risk older individuals. To tackle this issue effectively, it is essential to enhance the detection of the B subtype and implement targeted interventions in key clusters within non-main urban areas. In addition, proactive measures should be implemented to address the challenge of late diagnosis in Hangzhou by promoting widespread testing among the older individuals, particularly in priority areas.

Work Domain Analysis of Electric Transmission Networks and Operation

Work Domain Analysis of Electric Transmission Networks and Operation

Nasopharyngeal angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) expression as a risk-factor for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in concurrent hospital associated outbreaks

BackgroundWidespread human-to-human transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus two (SARS-CoV-2) stems from a strong affinity for the cellular receptor angiotensin converting enzyme two (ACE2). We investigate the relationship between a patient’s nasopharyngeal ACE2 transcription and secondary transmission within a series of concurrent hospital associated SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in British Columbia, Canada.MethodsEpidemiological case data from the outbreak investigations was merged with public health laboratory records and viral lineage calls, from whole genome sequencing, to reconstruct the concurrent outbreaks using infection tracing transmission network analysis. ACE2 transcription and RNA viral load were measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The transmission network was resolved to calculate the number of potential secondary cases. Bivariate and multivariable analyses using Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models was performed to estimate the association between ACE2 transcription the number of SARS-CoV-2 secondary cases.ResultsThe infection tracing transmission network provided n = 76 potential transmission events across n = 103 cases. Bivariate comparisons found that on average ACE2 transcription did not differ between patients and healthcare workers (P = 0.86). High ACE2 transcription was observed in 98.6% of transmission events, either the primary or secondary case had above average ACE2. Multivariable analysis found that the association between ACE2 transcription (log2 fold-change) and the number of secondary transmission events differs between patients and healthcare workers. In health care workers Negative Binomial regression estimated that a one-unit change in ACE2 transcription decreases the number of secondary cases (β = -0.132 (95%CI: -0.255 to -0.0181) adjusting for RNA viral load. Conversely, in patients a one-unit change in ACE2 transcription increases the number of secondary cases (β = 0.187 (95% CI: 0.0101 to 0.370) adjusting for RNA viral load. Sensitivity analysis found no significant relationship between ACE2 and secondary transmission in health care workers and confirmed the positive association among patients.ConclusionOur study suggests that ACE2 transcription has a positive association with SARS-CoV-2 secondary transmission in admitted inpatients, but not health care workers in concurrent hospital associated outbreaks, and it should be further investigated as a risk-factor for viral transmission.

Distribution pattern, molecular transmission networks, and phylodynamic of hepatitis C virus in China.

In China, few molecular epidemiological data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) are available and all previous studies were limited by small sample sizes or specific population characteristics. Here, we report characterization of the epidemic history and transmission dynamics of HCV strains in China. We included HCV sequences of individuals belonging to three HCV surveillance programs: 1) patients diagnosed with HIV infection at the Beijing HIV laboratory network, most of whom were people who inject drugs and former paid blood donors, 2) men who have sex with men, and 3) the general population. We also used publicly available HCV sequences sampled in China in our study. In total, we obtained 1,603 Ns5b and 865 C/E2 sequences from 1,811 individuals. The most common HCV strains were subtypes 1b (29.1%), 3b (25.5%) and 3a (15.1%). In transmission network analysis, factors independently associated with clustering included the region (OR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.19-0.71), infection subtype (OR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.1-0.52), and sampling period (OR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.27-0.68). The history of the major HCV subtypes was complex, which coincided with some important sociomedical events in China. Of note, five of eight HCV subtype (1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, and 3b), which constituted 81.8% HCV strains genotyped in our study, showed a tendency towards decline in the effective population size during the past decade until present, which is a good omen for the goal of eliminating HCV by 2030 in China.

On-Tissue Spatial Proteomics Integrating MALDI-MS Imaging with Shotgun Proteomics Reveals Soy Consumption-Induced Protein Changes in a Fragile X Syndrome Mouse Model.

Fragile X syndrome (FXS), the leading cause of inherited intellectual disability and autism, is caused by the transcriptional silencing of the FMR1 gene, which encodes the fragile X messenger ribonucleoprotein (FMRP). FMRP interacts with numerous brain mRNAs that are involved in synaptic plasticity and implicated in autism spectrum disorders. Our published studies indicate that single-source, soy-based diets are associated with increased seizures and autism. Thus, there is an acute need for an unbiased protein marker identification in FXS in response to soy consumption. Herein, we present a spatial proteomics approach integrating mass spectrometry imaging with label-free proteomics in the FXS mouse model to map the spatial distribution and quantify levels of proteins in the hippocampus and hypothalamus brain regions. In total, 1250 unique peptides were spatially resolved, demonstrating the diverse array of peptidomes present in the tissue slices and the broad coverage of the strategy. A group of proteins that are known to be involved in glycolysis, synaptic transmission, and coexpression network analysis suggest a significant association between soy proteins and metabolic and synaptic processes in the Fmr1KO brain. Ultimately, this spatial proteomics work represents a crucial step toward identifying potential candidate protein markers and novel therapeutic targets for FXS.

HIV-1 drug resistance and genetic transmission network among newly diagnosed people living with HIV/AIDS in Ningbo, China between 2018 and 2021

BackgroundAs the HIV epidemic continues to grow, transmitted drug resistance(TDR) and determining relationship of HIV transmission are major barriers to reduce the risk of HIV transmissions.This study aimed to examine the molecular epidemiology and TDR and evaluated the transmission pattern among newly diagnosed people living with HIV/AIDS(PLWHA) in Ningbo city, which could contribute to the development of targeted precision interventions.MethodsConsecutive cross-sectional surveys were conducted in Ningbo City between January 2018 and December 2021. The HIV-1 pol gene region was amplified and sequenced for drug resistance and genetic transmission network analysis. TDR was determined using the Stanford University HIV Drug Resistance Database. Genetic transmission network was visualized using Cytoscape with the genetic distance threshold of 0.013.ResultsA total of 1006 sequences were sequenced successfully, of which 61 (6.1%) showed evidence of TDR. The most common mutations were K103N (2.3%), E138A/G/Q (1.7%) and V179D/E (1.2%). 12 HIV-1 genotypes were identified, with CRF07_BC being the major genotype (43.3%, 332/767), followed by CRF01_AE (33.7%, 339/1006). 444 (44.1%) pol sequences formed 856 links within 120 transmission clusters in the network. An increasing trend in clustering rate between 2018 and 2021(χ2 = 9.546, P = 0.023) was observed. The odds of older age (≥ 60 years:OR = 2.038, 95%CI = 1.072 ~ 3.872, compared to < 25 years), HIV-1 genotypes (CRF07_BC: OR = 2.147, 95%CI = 1.582 ~ 2.914; CRF55_01B:OR = 2.217, 95%CI = 1.201 ~ 4.091, compared to CRF01_AE) were significantly related to clustering. Compared with CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC were prone to form larger clusters. The largest cluster with CRF07_BC was increased from 15 cases in 2018 to 83 cases in 2021.ConclusionsThis study revealed distribution of HIV-1 genotypes, and genetic transmission network were diverse and complex in Ningbo city. The prevalence of TDR was moderate, and NVP and EFV were high-level NNRTI resistance. Individuals aged ≥ 60 years old were more easily detected in the networks and CRF07_BC were prone to form rapid growth and larger clusters. These date suggested that surveillance and comprehensive intervention should be designed for key rapid growth clusters to reduce the potential risk factors of HIV-1 transmission.

Unveiling invisible farm-to-farm PRRSV-2 transmission links and routes through transmission tree and network analysis.

The United States (U.S.) swine industry has struggled to control porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) for decades, yet the causative virus, PRRSV-2, continues to circulate and rapidly diverges into new variants. In the swine industry, the farm is typically the epidemiological unit for monitoring, prevention, and control; breaking transmission among farms is a critical step in containing disease spread. Despite this, our understanding of farm transmission still is inadequate, precluding the development of tailored control strategies. Therefore, our objective was to infer farm-to-farm transmission links, estimate farm-level transmissibility as defined by reproduction numbers (R), and identify associated risk factors for transmission using PRRSV-2 open reading frame 5 (ORF5) gene sequences, animal movement records, and other data from farms in a swine-dense region of the U.S. from 2014 to 2017. Timed phylogenetic and transmission tree analyses were performed on three sets of sequences (n = 206) from 144 farms that represented the three largest genetic variants of the virus in the study area. The length of inferred pig-to-pig infection chains that corresponded to pairs of farms connected via direct animal movement was used as a threshold value for identifying other feasible transmission links between farms; these links were then transformed into farm-to-farm transmission networks and calculated farm-level R-values. The median farm-level R was one (IQR = 1-2), whereas the R value of 28% of farms was more than one. Exponential random graph models were then used to evaluate the influence of farm attributes and/or farm relationships on the occurrence of farm-to-farm transmission links. These models showed that, even though most transmission events cannot be directly explained by animal movement, movement was strongly associated with transmission. This study demonstrates how integrative techniques may improve disease traceability in a data-rich era by providing a clearer picture of regional disease transmission.

Outbreak of NDM-1- and OXA-181-Producing Klebsiella pneumoniae Bloodstream Infections in a Neonatal Unit, South Africa.

After an increase in carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) bloodstream infections and associated deaths in the neonatal unit of a South Africa hospital, we conducted an outbreak investigation during October 2019-February 2020 and cross-sectional follow-up during March 2020-May 2021. We used genomic and epidemiologic data to reconstruct transmission networks of outbreak-related clones. We documented 31 cases of culture-confirmed CRKP infection and 14 deaths. Two outbreak-related clones (blaNDM-1 sequence type [ST] 152 [n = 16] and blaOXA-181 ST307 [n = 6]) cocirculated. The major clone blaNDM-1 ST152 accounted for 9/14 (64%) deaths. Transmission network analysis identified possible index cases of blaOXA-181 ST307 in October 2019 and blaNDM-1 ST152 in November 2019. During the follow-up period, 11 new cases of CRKP infection were diagnosed; we did not perform genomic analysis. Sustained infection prevention and control measures, adequate staffing, adhering to bed occupancy limits, and antimicrobial stewardship are key interventions to control such outbreaks.

Connectivity-based Seismic Response Analysis of Water Transmission Networks

Recent frequent earthquakes have caused serious damage to water supply structures, significantly affecting the drinking water supply of local residents. In particular, because water supply structures are extensively buried underground, prediction of their deteriorated performance against external disturbances is crucial for maintenance purpose. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the degraded seismic performance of the water transmission network based on connectivity-based network analysis against seismic conditions. The proposed methodology consists of i) network map reconstruction using a graph theory, ii) ground motion generation considering the uncertainty of seismic motion, and iii) connectivity verification between source and sink nodes. To demonstrate the proposed methodology, the network topology was reconstructed by adopting the water transmission network located in A-city, and the seismic performance of the target network was evaluated considering the epicenter of the historical earthquakes. As a result of numerical analysis, the seismic response of the water transmission network showed the highest network connectivity when the water was supplied from node 62, and water was stably secured at node 107 under different earthquake magnitudes.

Graph-Based Reconstruction and Analysis of Disease Transmission Networks Using Viral Genomic Data.

Understanding the patterns of viral disease transmissions helps establish public health policies and aids in controlling and ending a disease outbreak. Classical methods for studying disease transmission dynamics that rely on epidemiological data, such as times of sample collection and duration of exposure intervals, struggle to provide desired insight due to limited informativeness of such data. A more precise characterization of disease transmissions may be acquired from sequencing data that reveal genetic distance between viral genomes in patient samples. Indeed, genetic distance between viral strains present in hosts contains valuable information about transmission history, thus motivating the design of methods that rely on genomic data to reconstruct a directed disease transmission network, detect transmission clusters, and identify significant network nodes (e.g., super-spreaders). In this article, we present a novel end-to-end framework for the analysis of viral transmissions utilizing viral genomic (sequencing) data. The proposed framework groups infected hosts into transmission clusters based on the reconstructed viral strains infecting them; the genetic distance between a pair of hosts is calculated using Earth Mover's Distance, and further used to infer transmission direction between the hosts. To quantify the significance of a host in the transmission network, the importance score is calculated by a graph convolutional autoencoder. The viral transmission network is represented by a directed minimum spanning tree utilizing the Edmond's algorithm modified to incorporate constraints on the importance scores of the hosts. The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art techniques for the analysis of viral transmission dynamics in several experiments on semiexperimental as well as experimental data.

Transmission network and phylogenetic analysis reveal older male-centered transmission of CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC in Guangxi, China

ABSTRACT In China, the number of newly reported HIV infections in older people is increasing rapidly. However, clear information on the impact of older people on HIV transmission is limited. This study aims to reveal the local HIV transmission patterns, especially how older people affect virus transmission. Subtype analysis based on available pol sequences obtained from HIV patients revealed that CRF01_AE and CRF08_BC were predominant in patients aged <50 years, whereas CRF01_AE was predominant in older people aged ≥50 years (χ 2 = 29.299, P < 0.001). A total of 25 patients (5.2%, 25/484) were identified with recent HIV infection (RHI). Transmission network analysis found 267 genetically linked individuals forming 55 clusters (2–63 individuals), including 5 large transmission clusters and 12 transmission clusters containing RHI. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis suggested that transmission events in CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC were centred on older males, while transmission events in CRF08_BC were centred on younger males. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that older people were more likely to cluster within networks (AOR = 2.303, 95% CI: 1.012–5.241) and that RHI was a significant factor associated with high linkage (AOR = 3.468, 95% CI: 1.315–9.146). This study provides molecular evidence that older males play a central role in the local transmission of CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC in Guangxi. Given the current widespread of CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC in Guangxi, there is a need to recommend HIV screening as part of free national medical examinations for older people to improve early detection, timely treatment, and further reduce second-generation transmission.