Transmission Dynamics Of Vector-borne Diseases Research Articles

Climate Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases: Investigating the Influence on Transmission Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases

Background: Climate change significantly affects the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases by altering temperature and rainfall patterns, thus creating favorable conditions for vectors. Objective: This study aims to examine the impact of climate change on the incidence of vector-borne diseases, focusing on temperature and rainfall patterns in Dhaka. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted from February to November 2023 at Shaheed Monsur Ali Medical College and Hospital, Uttara, Dhaka. A total of 125 patients diagnosed with dengue, malaria, and chikungunya were analyzed. Data on patient demographics, disease occurrence, and climate variables (temperature and rainfall) were collected. Regression analysis evaluated the relationship between climate factors and disease incidence. Results: Out of 125 patients, 69 (55%) had dengue, 31 (25%) had malaria, and 25 (20%) had chikungunya. Dengue cases peaked during the monsoon season (July to September), with a 35% increase compared to the dry season. A 1°C rise in temperature correlated with a 12% rise in disease incidence, while a 50 mm increase in rainfall resulted in a 15% increase in cases. Conclusion: The study confirms that rising temperatures and increased rainfall due to climate change are critical drivers of vector-borne disease transmission in Dhaka, necessitating targeted public health measures.

Modeling the Spatial Dynamics and Human Mobility in Zika Virus Transmission: A Review

Spatial dynamics and human mobility significantly influence the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases like Zika virus. This paper reviews advancements in mathematical modeling that integrate spatial factors and human movement to enhance our understanding of disease transmission dynamics. Traditional SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) models have been foundational but lack spatial heterogeneity and human mobility considerations. Recent studies have addressed these limitations by developing spatially explicit models that incorporate local interactions, environmental conditions, and human mobility patterns. By synthesizing findings from these studies, we identify strengths, limitations, and future research directions for improving predictive modeling of Zika virus transmission. Key insights include the amplifying effect of local interactions on disease spread and the critical role of human mobility networks in shaping transmission pathways. Addressing remaining challenges, such as refining spatial modeling techniques and integrating real-time data sources, will enhance the accuracy and applicability of spatial disease models in informing public health strategies.

Artificial Feeding Systems for Vector-Borne Disease Studies.

This review examines the advancements and methodologies of artificial feeding systems for the study of vector-borne diseases, offering a critical assessment of their development, advantages, and limitations relative to traditional live host models. It underscores the ethical considerations and practical benefits of such systems, including minimizing the use of live animals and enhancing experimental consistency. Various artificial feeding techniques are detailed, including membrane feeding, capillary feeding, and the utilization of engineered biocompatible materials, with their respective applications, efficacy, and the challenges encountered with their use also being outlined. This review also forecasts the integration of cutting-edge technologies like biomimicry, microfluidics, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence to refine and expand the capabilities of artificial feeding systems. These innovations aim to more accurately simulate natural feeding conditions, thereby improving the reliability of studies on the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. This comprehensive review serves as a foundational reference for researchers in the field, proposing a forward-looking perspective on the potential of artificial feeding systems to revolutionize vector-borne disease research.

Individual heterogeneity in ixodid tick infestation and prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in a northern community of small mammalian hosts.

Heterogeneous aggregation of parasites between individual hosts is common and regarded as an important factor in understanding transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Lyme disease is vectored by generalist tick species, yet we have a limited understanding of how individual heterogeneities within small mammal host populations affectthe aggregation of ticks and likelihood of infection. Male hosts often have higher parasite and infection levels than females, but whether this is linked to sexual body size dimorphism remains uncertain. Here, we analysed how host species, sex, and body mass influenced Ixodes ricinus tick infestations and the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) in three species of small mammals involved in the enzootic transmission cycle of Lyme disease in Norway from 2018 to 2022. Larval and nymphal ticks were found on 98% and 34% of all individual hosts, respectively. In bank voles and wood mice, both larval and nymphal tick infestation and infection probability increased with body mass, and it increased more with mass for males than for females. Tick infestation in the common shrew increased with body mass and was higher in males, while pathogen infection was higher in females. Sex-biases in infestation did not correspond with level of sexual body mass dimorphism across species. This study contributes to our understanding of how individual heterogeneity among small mammalian hosts influences I. ricinus tick aggregation and prevalence of B. burgdorferi s.l. at northern latitudes.

Dynamics of a Zika virus transmission model with seasonality and periodic delays

Zika virus is an arbovirus transmitted by mosquitoes, which can cause low fever, mild skin rash and eye swelling. In severe cases, it may cause neurological and autoimmune complications, such as microcephaly. Climate factors and weather, especially temperature, have a strong effect on the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases, such as Dengue, West Nile virus, Schistosomiasis, and Zika. To study the comprehensive effects of spatial structure, seasonality and the temperature sensitivity of incubation period on the transmission of Zika virus, we propose a PDE model with periodic delay. We present the basic reproduction number R0 and explore the global dynamics of the model. Our simulations show that (i) it is possible to overestimate R0 in the periodic system if the spatial averaged system is used; (ii) R0 can be underestimated in the absence of seasonality; and (iii) shortening the incubation period may reduce the risk of disease transmission, which is critical for modeling the transmission of Zika virus dynamics to understand geographic and seasonal limits of Zika risk.

Stimuli Followed by Avian Malaria Vectors in Host-Seeking Behaviour.

Simple SummaryVector-borne diseases (VBDs) (e.g., malaria, yellow fever, dengue fever) account for 17% of the estimated global burden of all infectious diseases. They are transmitted to humans and other animals by blood-feeding arthropods. In their pursuit of blood meal, insect vectors use different cues to detect their hosts. The knowledge of these stimuli followed by vectors in this host-seeking behaviour is essential to design strategies to prevent VBD infections. Since its discovery in the late 19th century, avian malaria investigations have allowed significant advances to understand the dynamics and mechanisms of VBD transmission to many organisms, including humans. Here, we review published contributions on the different physical and chemical cues used by mosquitoes and other bird haemosporidian vectors to locate their hosts. This information would be highly valuable for vector surveillance and public health policies.Vector-borne infectious diseases (e.g., malaria, dengue fever, and yellow fever) result from a parasite transmitted to humans and other animals by blood-feeding arthropods. They are major contributors to the global disease burden, as they account for nearly a fifth of all infectious diseases worldwide. The interaction between vectors and their hosts plays a key role driving vector-borne disease transmission. Therefore, identifying factors governing host selection by blood-feeding insects is essential to understand the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Here, we review published information on the physical and chemical stimuli (acoustic, visual, olfactory, moisture and thermal cues) used by mosquitoes and other haemosporidian vectors to detect their vertebrate hosts. We mainly focus on studies on avian malaria and related haemosporidian parasites since this animal model has historically provided important advances in our understanding on ecological and evolutionary process ruling vector-borne disease dynamics and transmission. We also present relevant studies analysing the capacity of feather and skin symbiotic bacteria in the production of volatile compounds with vector attractant properties. Furthermore, we review the role of uropygial secretions and symbiotic bacteria in bird–insect vector interactions. In addition, we present investigations examining the alterations induced by haemosporidian parasites on their arthropod vector and vertebrate host to enhance parasite transmission. Finally, we propose future lines of research for designing successful vector control strategies and for infectious disease management.

Vector-borne disinformation during disasters and emergencies

During disasters and emergencies (earthquakes, pandemics, economic crises etc.), we also face a second challenge, pollution of information. The transmitted information may be false, potentially harmful and speculative. Today, the main source of information seems to be the social media, which behaves as a vector via sharing news. In this manuscript, the concept of the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases is adapted to the transmission dynamics of vector-borne disinformation. The dynamical behavior of the model is analyzed, the disinformation-free and disinformation endemic equilibria of the model are found and both their local and global stabilities are presented. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to support the analytical results of the dynamical transmission of disinformation.

Modeling the effects of temperature and heterogeneous biting exposure on chikungunya virus disease dynamics

Within the last decades, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes species mosquitoes has been a growing public health burden. Approximately 1.3 billion inhabitants in 94 countries are estimated to be at risk of chikungunya virus infection. Prior studies suggest that temperature and heterogeneous biting exposure are some of the key determinant factors in transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is imperative to evaluate the effects of heterogeneous biting exposure and temperature variations on transmission dynamics of CHIKV. In this paper, a mathematical model that incorporates heterogeneous biting exposure and temperature effects has been developed and analyzed. The basic reproduction number, an important metric for infectious disease models has been determined. Data from literature has been used to calibrate the model and observed CHIKV data for Kadmat primary health centre, India (2 July to 7 September 2007) has been used to validate the model. Results from the study suggest that disease prevention strategies which are effective at stopping transmission of CHIKV more than 80% of the time, will be highly effective minimizing disease burden during outbreaks. The proposed model can be used to inform policy makers on effective ways of managing CHIKV during outbreaks.

The Impact of Climate Change on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Insights From Current Research and New Directions.

Purpose of ReviewVaccine-preventable diseases remain a major public health concern globally. Climate is a key driver of the dynamics of many infectious diseases, including those that are vaccine preventable. Understanding the impact of climate change on vaccine-preventable diseases is, thus, an important public health research priority. Here, we summarize the recent literature and highlight promising directions for future research.Recent FindingsVaccine-preventable enteric diseases, such as cholera, exhibit sensitivity to precipitation and flooding events. The predicted increase in extreme weather events as a result of climate change could exacerbate outbreaks of these pathogens. For airborne pathogens, temperature and specific humidity have been shown to be the most important environmental drivers, although the impact of climate change on disease burden and dynamics remains unclear. Finally, the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases are dependent on both temperature and precipitation, and climate change is expected to alter the burden and geographic range of these diseases. However, understanding the interacting effects of multiple factors, including socioeconomic and ecological factors, on the vector-borne disease ecosystem will be a crucial step towards forecasting disease burden under climate change.SummaryRecent work has demonstrated associations between climate and transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases. Translating these findings into forecasts under various climate change scenarios will require mechanistic frameworks that account for both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission, and the non-linear effects on disease burden. Future research should also pay greater attention to uncertainty in both the climate modeling processes as well as disease outcomes in the context of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe

BackgroundClimate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe.MethodsLocal weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016.ResultsWe produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000–2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.

Optimal control analysis of vector-host model with saturated treatment.

Vector-host infectious diseases remain a challenging issue and cause millions of deaths each year globally. In such outbreaks, many countries especially developing or underdevelopment faces a situation where the number of infected individuals is getting larger and the medical facilities are limited. In this paper, we construct an epidemic model to explore the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases with nonlinear saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function. This type of incidence rate, as well as the saturated treatment function, is also known as the Holling type II form and describes the effect of delayed treatment. Initially, we formulate a mathematical model and then present the basic analysis of the model including the positivity and boundedness of the solution. The threshold quantity {mathcal {R}}_{0} is presented and the stability analysis of the system is carried out for the model equilibria. The global stability results are shown using the Lyapunov function of Goh–Voltera type. The existence of backward bifurcation is discussed using the central manifold theory. Further, the global sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out using the Latin Hypercube sampling and the partial rank correlation coefficient techniques. Moreover, an optimal control problem is formulated and the necessary optimality conditions are investigated in order to eradicate the disease in a community. Four strategies are presented by choosing different set of controls combination for the disease minimization. Finally, the numerical simulations of each strategy are depicted to demonstrate the importance of suggesting control interventions on the disease dynamics and eradication.

A fractional model of vertical transmission and cure of vector-borne diseases pertaining to the Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivatives

The model of transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases with vertical transmission and cure within a targeted population is extended to the concept of fractional differentiation and integration with non-local and non-singular fading memory introduced. The effect of vertical transmission and cure rate on the basic reproduction number is shown. The Atangana–Baleanu fractional operator in caputo sense (ABC) with non-singular and non-local kernels is used to study the model. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are investigated using the Picard–Lindel method. Ultimately, for illustrating the acquired results, we perform some numerical simulations and show graphically to observe the impact of the arbitrary order derivative. It is expected that the proposed model will show better approximation than the classical model established before.

New mathematical model of vertical transmission and cure of vector-borne diseases and its numerical simulation

In this research article, a new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases with vertical transmission and cure is developed. The non-negative solutions of the model are shown. To understand the dynamical behavior of the epidemic model, the theory of basic reproduction number is used. As this number increases, the disease invades the population and vice versa. The effect of vertical transmission and cure rate on the basic reproduction number is shown. The disease-free and endemic equilibria of the model are found and both their local and global stabilities are presented. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out graphically to show the dynamical behaviors. These results show that vertical transmission and cure have a valuable effect on the transmission dynamics of the disease.

Comments on “A Mathematical Study to Control Visceral Leishmaniasis: An Application to South Sudan”

Deterministic (ordinary differential equation) models for the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases that incorporate disease-induced death in the host(s) population(s) are generally known to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where a stable disease-free equilibrium of the model coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity). Further, it is well known that, in these models, the phenomenon of backward bifurcation does not occur when the disease-induced death rate is negligible (e.g., if the disease-induced death rate is set to zero). In a recent paper on the transmission dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis (a disease vectored by sandflies), titled "A Mathematical Study to Control Visceral Leishmaniasis: An Application to South Sudan," published in Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Vol. 79, Pages 1110-1134, 2017, Ghosh etal. (2017) stated that their deterministic model undergoes a backward bifurcation even when the disease-induced mortality in the host population is set to zero. This result is contrary to the well-established theory on the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this short note, we illustrate some of the key errors in the Ghosh etal. (2017) study.

Global dynamics of a vector-host epidemic model with age of infection.

In this paper, a partial differential equation (PDE) model is proposed to explore the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. The model includes both incubation age of the exposed hosts and infection age of the infectious hosts which describe incubation-age dependent removal rates in the latent period and the variable infectiousness in the infectious period, respectively. The reproductive number R0 is derived. By using the method of Lyapunov function, the global dynamics of the PDE model is further established, and the results show that the basic reproduction number R0 determines the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases: the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 ≤ 1, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. The results suggest that an effective strategy to contain vector-borne diseases is decreasing the basic reproduction number R0 below one.

Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts.

The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.

Simultaneous identification of host, ectoparasite and pathogen DNA via in-solution capture.

Ectoparasites frequently vector pathogens from often unknown pathogen reservoirs to both human and animal populations. Simultaneous identification of the ectoparasite species, the wildlife host that provided their most recent blood meal(s), and their pathogen load would greatly facilitate the understanding of the complex transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Currently, these identifications are principally performed using multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. We developed an assay (EctoBaits) based on in-solution capture paired with high-throughput sequencing to simultaneously identify ectoparasites, host blood meals and pathogens. We validated our in-solution capture results using double-blind PCR assays, morphology and collection data. The EctoBaits assay effectively and efficiently identifies ectoparasites, blood meals, and pathogens in a single capture experiment, allowing for high-resolution taxonomic identification while preserving the DNA sample for future analyses.

Quantifying the Contribution of Hosts with Different Parasite Concentrations to the Transmission of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Ethiopia

BackgroundAn important factor influencing the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases is the contribution of hosts with different parasitemia (no. of parasites per ml of blood) to the infected vector population. Today, estimation of this contribution is often impractical since it relies exclusively on limited-scale xenodiagnostic or artificial feeding experiments (i.e., measuring the proportion of vectors that become infected after feeding on infected blood/host).MethodologyWe developed a novel mechanistic model that facilitates the quantification of the contribution of hosts with different parasitemias to the infection of the vectors from data on the distribution of these parasitemias within the host population. We applied the model to an ample data set of Leishmania donovani carriers, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis in Ethiopia.ResultsCalculations facilitated by the model quantified the host parasitemias that are mostly responsible for the infection of vector, the sand fly Phlebotomus orientalis. Our findings indicate that a 3.2% of the most infected people were responsible for the infection of between 53% and 79% (mean – 62%) of the infected sand fly vector population.SignificanceOur modeling framework can easily be extended to facilitate the calculation of the contribution of other host groups (such as different host species, hosts with different ages) to the infected vector population. Identifying the hosts that contribute most towards infection of the vectors is crucial for understanding the transmission dynamics, and planning targeted intervention policy of visceral leishmaniasis as well as other vector borne infectious diseases (e.g., West Nile Fever).

Effect of blood meal digestion and DNA extraction protocol on the success of blood meal source determination in the malaria vector Anopheles atroparvus

BackgroundHost identification is an essential step in studies on the transmission dynamics of vector-borne disease. Nowadays, molecular tools allow the identification of vertebrate hosts to the species level. However, the proportion of successful identifications is variable and may be affected by the quality of the samples and the laboratory protocols. Here, the effect of two of these factors, namely the digestion status of mosquito blood meal and the DNA extraction procedure, on the success of host identification by amplification and sequencing of a fragment of the cytochrome oxidase 1 gene were tested.MethodsMosquitoes collected both outdoors and indoors during 2012 in southern Spain were identified to species level and their blood meal digestion status recorded using the Sella score, a visual estimation of the digestion status of mosquito blood meals. Each mosquito was assigned randomly to one of two DNA extraction procedures: the quick and cheap HotSHOT procedure or the QIAGEN DNeasy Blood and Tissue® kit and their hosts identified by a molecular method.ResultsThree hundred and forty-seven blood-fed mosquitoes belonging to Anopheles atroparvus (n=171), Culex perexiguus (n=84), Culex pipiens (n=43), Culex theileri (n=39), Culex modestus (n=5), Ochlerotatus caspius (n=4), Culiseta sp. (n=1) were included in this study. Overall, hosts were identified from 234 blood meals compromising at least 25 species including mammals, birds and a single reptile. The success of host identification was lower in mosquitoes with an advanced stage of blood meal digestion and for blood meals extracted using the HotSHOT procedure.ConclusionsThe success of host identification decreases with the advanced stage of mosquito blood meal digestion, from 84.5% for recent blood meals to 25.0% for more digested ones. Using the QIAGEN kit, the identification success improved by 17.6%, with larger increases at more advanced stages of blood meal digestion. Availability of blood-fed females used to be very limited for studies of vector ecology, and these results may help to increase the efficiency of blood meal analyses. In addition, results obtained in this study clearly support that the potential malaria vector An. atroparvus feeds on animals located outdoors but use human-made shelters for resting after feeding.

Vector-borne nematodes, emerging parasites in Finnish cervids

Vector-borne nematodes, emerging parasites in Finnish cervids